 तिसे अब आब आब अग़ा पुत परत्रेस सेख की होंटूम जोग्योंबे देखाता करेंट बर सेख बिरावे कहता हो नहीं वो और दुब बोरळ हो था यहान उन Impossible let us understand what exactly a current account deficit होता क्या है करेंट अप को पादा हो यहा यहा उनत आिस की बालेंँनट यही है अपको नहीं बालणज़़ नाँ बालगन से ज़ोड़ा कि नहीं भाँप के नहीं अपको और वगा्हा मदिवाद मरी तो बईसिक बालगश मने बालगाई आपंना अपको लगा और बईसिक्गे नाँ वगाई बालग के नहीं तो यह तो क्रिईख़ें वहॄ। अभéd��ग बालनट़ क्या serum of payment of payment .. There will always be balance of payment. अफनिश अपकज ळ lebih same balance of payment, अपकज तभ क�男 over India in 1991 अप वो। Level of Pasion完全 कवक इत होता गय भाध क्या। standing up, balance of payment囫ी한 से किसी चीस करै भाधन caramel आम में रहिश बालेश tab one balance of payment तो पेहमंट टब भालेच हीस dinner alliance अपको नहीं अपको पता है सपोस अब्दिया कुथ चीजे एकशपोट करती हैं तो हम जाड़ एकशपोट करते हैं तो हमें क्या मिलता है। तो हम ड़ालर कम आते है। लिए ची बात है। और इंपोड कर के केवल पचास डोलरी खो रहे हैं तो बालेंस कितना होगे आमारा? पचास डोलर? आप नीज, भी आर औरनिग डोलर, दब बालेंस is positive तो इसी को सिंपल भे बालेंस अप पेमिन कहते हैं तो हरे खन्तरी अपने इस चीस को ट्रक करती है कि हमारा जो ट्रेड हैं, हमारा जो रेलेशींस हैं ह pesticides transactions रो लोग हैं, इंडिन-रसीडेंष का और बाहर की भुमट्या की रेसीडेंष का उस से क्या हमारा डोलर आरा है की जारा है? इसी को भालेंस ठोग के अगर डोलर, गबववेंत अरभी आń मैंसे कहँे these are the two accounts of payment they are two accounts one is current account and one is your capital account now what is current account तो करेंट अक्हूं देखो क्या होटाय है, मताप जो द्रंजाक्ष्यंस ळोदय है, उसको वो दोग अक्हुटस मैं लोग रेकोट करते हैं, एक है तो करेंट अक्हूं एक होटाय धाःपी।ल अच्थ अक्हूंट. अगर उसको बैस्सिंसे समझे अवी, सादा देटेल में आजाएं because this is we don't have the time over here अगर बेसिक से सब से बुन्यादी ची समजें तो करेंट अकाउंट में उन प्रन्जाक्ष्यंस को हम लोग लिकोड करते है जिस से कोई भी एसेट और लाइबिलेटी चेंज नहीं होती है अगर में बेसिक से सब से बुन्यादी करते है तो उस असे प्रन्जाक्ष्यंस को कहाँ लिकोड करेंगे यहाँ प्रन्जाक्ष्यंस को लाइबिलेटी करते है लिकिन माल लोग कल को मेरा जमीन है उसको एक एमरिकन नहां के खरीद लिया उसको एक बहार के आद्मी नहां के खरीद लिया तो उसके इस में क्या होगा मेरी एसेट कहतम तिक है, सु वह आपने नहीं लिए एसेट और लाइबिलेटी यहा पर एकजाम्पल माल लो, मैंने एमरिकन से लोन ले लिया झो सोंग कर लोटन मैंने की फीज्ट से ले लिया उस आमरिकन बंक के यह जी होगे लिए होगा, अज़ेद मेरी लिए होगा जी लाइबिलेटी तो अचद आपली लिए लगे आप बी आप दै सुत्ट यह उईटेझन से चुर्ट चाहा वो लग बड्री ऐसेट ज啦ा भीदे खिलने से य мелंने लाभर உनन्த है यहू यन औज chicken यह शबितकिलर ॥ श freezing टीक brain प्वित क्र KO और यह प्वित Hmm नन रह सी கान ustedesसे मिसकचा Lord ही यह क loos बाहत लाप trib समजो, कर AND ACCOUNT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT , अप समजो क्या होता है अग लिग कर एटा कान्ट जीनाली कैपफिसित होता है मतब कर AND ACCOUNT TRANSACTIONS की वजे से हम डोलर लुज करते के लुज डोलर अख कबिटी लाएा जीनाली रुस अद जानदालर होता है बी औरन डोलर लोस करते हैं यहमें दोलर तामाते है, जिएू दिखों, अंड्रा में जेन्ली जुडष हैं एक जादा तोमनुग उगी पुडठ करते हैं, चैना से, अवें से, तो शिभगापोर से अपने नहीं करते है तुशाद भी वड़े यह तो बहुत एक देद ठुडच करते हैं, अ यो लोग इंदन्स बाहर कमा के इंदन्या पैसा बेज्ते है, तो यह सब जन्ली पोज्टिव होता है, इस से में दोलर कमाते है, लेकिं गॉट्स एक आसा सेक्तर है, तो सब से प्रोबले में, कोस यहापे हमारा कापी वीखनेस है, यह तो मैंन्प्रक्ष्ट्टिव नहीं लेग, बहुज देल आम वहर से मागाते है, तो यह यह एक बहुज ब्रा नेगीट्टिव है, यह अगी इतना बरा नेगीट्टिव है कि यह से पुडा करन्ट अक्षेट हमारा, नेगीट करन्ट अक्षेट होचाते है मारा, मत्लब भी लूज दोलर. तो क्षेट लेखाउन के सथ त्ध पाईजा है, यह अप आप बलेश, क्युकी यह यह यह गर देल प्ट्टिव कुईग गुएग, Kerry님이 ever and the biggest major growing economy we used to get support the deficit which we were having in the current account and basically the current account is the problem is goods by trade the weakest sector but the problem is during the pandemic current account deficit went up the current account deficit will go down the capital account will be handled अपको पता इसके अलावा, RBI के पासे एक फोरिक्स रीज़र्व्स भी होता है, तो इस करेंट अक्फन्ट में लोग कैसे, इसको इसके देफिसिट को कैसे हम लोग पैसे फन्ट करेंगे, इस अस्थी डोलर जो में एक खर्ज करन रहे है, एक दोलर लाएंगे कहाँ से, यहाँ से लाएंगे और यहाँ से लाएंगे, लेकिन अगर ये बहुजा जाएगा, तो प्रब्लिम करन स्थ होगी हमरा, तो यही पान्टमी के समें होगा, की करेंट अक्फन्ट देफिसिट बहुजा जाएगा बहुजा बहुजा, तो से क्या यहाँ रेगा, कैद बडेगा, काद विल इंग्रीज अक्फन्ट धेफ्फन्ट, तो अरभ्या एग चाएगी, इस करनसी को मरेगुडेट करेए, तो रोपी गभता, क्यु? कुई, दोलर की दिमान बल रही है, आसे किस में क्या कर ती है, अरभ्या आई, एकेasz to let's start about the money Priyanka ल़र देके Sutra-Rелиए की क्योगों स्ताडिगकी girls बढोई Arvehaat artificially ज्ब Nhत सकोा थो वो क्योका थो Definitely नृतस को Piece으면 सकोautional होगोगोगोगोगो के. Naghats Kif इसेतमागर शरी साएपुु. J revise समफझी। साएपुुु. AfD Comme on deficit, the China's pentophone backs because China exports everything in every place after that the survey talks about export performance India's export was increased India's export was doing well the market was good during the pandemic government brought reforms through the Indian government to improve our export sector but now that economy is going slow down what is happening उग्लोबडिये लेकूर विप्रत्तादब लगा सूव आदे, लेकूर होगों बरत्रने मुझा लगेूस दिमान्तार होगो होगो। औल एक सब वाँन्तें ख्विदिं, अगर इस्पिल क्या तश्वर कि से प्रच्वाऑ कादा क suspicious यह सब विक्टेऊ यह पास्वाद आद पास्वाद में की अना बाच़ा कोग them आज़े कि सब then ृद हूँ, ची च番ोच तब हो गंगे इस्पील कि नादी का 102 तो आप ज़़दबी एकटिया फर्वर कतेने, तो एप प्ल अख्टी के लिक लिए सलैद, उता आप पर घवेगी प्रच्ट्या प्रच्ट्या निवा। और खॉल मेहने दिस गरदक पाल लगडिः appears in India as 1 of the major fastest-growing economy in the world. economy in the so that's why in an economy is luckily much more resilient as compared to other economies now comes to private consumption a other important topic here private consumptions what is private consumptions here you will see gdp so what is the formula of gdp? private final consumption expenditure plus government final consumption expenditure plus gross fixed capital formation plus x minus m plus change in stocks and variables leave that so this is private final consumption expenditure this means what we consume phone house all these things government final consumption expenditure the government who spend on consumption expenditure for example the ones who give their employees salary they spend on schemes programs gross fixed capital formation the fixed capital formation mein kharch hota hai jaisa sarak ka banna factory's ka banna un cheez ok upad aur x export hogya m apka import hogya ish mein agar jangli aap dekhoghe to private financial consumption expenditure ka share 60 percent hota hai to pulit gdp ka sapsi bada jo component hai wo pfc hota hai private final consumption expenditure that is what people like you and me demand to ye jo private final consumption expenditure hai we ye nirbhari kispe karega hum lo kitna demand karenge likin poori pandemic kisame our demand top para tha because loko ka salary ni mil rata loko ka employment kum ho gaya tha tika to ish ki wasse pfc pe kaafi zada impact para tha but abhi jaisi economy recover kari hai jo private final consumption expenditure hai jo ki sapsi bada component gdp ka aaj people are demanding much more to jab loko zada demand karenge to pfc baik rebounds dekhne ko hume mila hai to ye deko humara private consumption highest since f by 15 ye deko private final consumption expenditure humara 20 20 ke baat ghat rata ghat rata ab deko it has got shot up dekh do ye hume so ye lagbha gav aap ka 60 percent ke close pohach raha abhi lagbha 58 pohn kuch percent hai 58 pohn 5 ye 9 percent hai now it is inching close to the 60 percent so sochoh itna bada component agar aap ka gdp mein badhega to aapki gdp badhegi to ye deko gdp mein private final consumption expenditure ye lagbhaq 60 percent hota hai the gross fixed capital formation tika export import tika so this is a very good point ki humara demand made by the people is not increasing satsat improving consumer confidence ek aareway survey kandak karti this consumer confidence kum lo kete consumer confidence survey ccs ek survey hai aareway kandak karti hai aur aareway ish mein different different cities mein jaake logo se pujhti hai ki aapko kya lagta hai gdp kya saha hu aga lisa what do you think about inflation what do you think about income what do you think about employment to agar log positive response dete hai to uska jo value hai vo sauce se upar jaata hai so if the value is more than 100 then that means people ka jo confidence ek on me pe bo achha hai and if it is less than 100 to logo ka jo confidence hai bo kum achha hai tika to aap dekhye ye saw hai to dekho ish poore pandemic se main the current situation index logo ka bharosa tha ek on me mein wo decline kar raha tha less than 100 tha mein people were very skeptical ki pata nahi kya hoega job melega kine melega but dekho now gradually this is increasing so aap logo ka jo economy mein bharosa hai now people are thinking that yes things are figuring it out things have settled down now again income employment will be fine so this is the current situation index iss saal mein aapko kya lagta hai and the second thing is future expectation index jo ye wala graph hai to logo ko lagta hai ki future mein kya hoega so every time people are optimistic about the future and this graph basically shows ki iss saal kya hoega so that is a that is a good thing about india that indians are always optimistic to aap titne nahi indians se pooch ho so they were saying kya long term mein to to puch thik ho jayega pata nahi iss saal kya hoega but now dekho people are also confident about this year kf 2023 achha hoega so summer has aagaya summer aega nahi or the time has come for india so that's again a good thing that consumer confidence survey is reaching back to its pre-pandemic level now the people are optimistic also about the year year term right so this is about this thing right so private consumption as a percentage of gdp has stood at 58.4 percent why because of rebound in the contact intensive sector contact intensive sector matlab to services sectorate tourism hoge another things like that and second pent up demand amni baat kya logo put a demand jo hai pandemic seme rakhe nahi thay aap wo wapa se demand kar rahe hain to apna saara saving se wo gadi kharidh nahi phone kharidh nahi laptop kharidh nahi other things like that what are the benefits to benefits obvious ab baat hai jab aap ka itna look demand karega to demand karega to fact is nahi aayenge and appellate looks or phone demand kata look those are phone demand kar rahe to nahi aap phone ka factory aana padega so whenever the demand increases new factories and other things also comes now capital expenditure aap ko pata hai what is capex capital expenditure aap ko pata hiye ek boho para development dekhne ko mila hai. pehle jitli bhi sarkare hoa karthi thi most of the governments were completely relying on subsidies freebies tk unproductive expenditure but this government especially in the last 2 to 3 years this government has focused more on spending on capital expenditure not on revenue expenditure. dekhun do tari ke expenditure hote sarkar ke ek hote revenue ek hote capital revenue ka matlab jab sarkar ka koi asset nahi create ho rahe hai aur capital ka matlab us expenditure se sarkar ek asset create kar tha hai. for example revenue me kya jayega sarkar aap ko salary dena hai. you become an IS officer, sarkar pays you the salary to kya sarkar ke liye koi asset create ho rahe hai nahi but suppose sarkar constructs a road ek highway banati to ho sarkar ke liye asset ho rahe hai. to capital expenditure jis bhi economy ka bharta hai usse economy pe jo impact hote hai ho zada tej rate se hote hai. for example if you spend 100 rupees on capital expenditure then the return which economy gets is of 400, 4x. chaar guna fahida milta ek economy ko. so that is why spending on capex is a very good way to invest. isli is government ne bohot smartly is poore pandemic ke same extra kharj to kia. but po kharj pay se bharta ne me nahi kia. boh kharj subsidy dena me nahi kia. but that money was put into productive use and that is what the survey says that this government has made a qualitative shift in terms of where it is investing the money. so aap bhek sette ye capex hamara. is tari ke se 1.8 lakh crore se abhi 4.5 lakh crore. it has doubled in the past five years. so jab itna sarkar capex pe kharj karega to jo private people hai. the private industries like reliance, tata. they will also be happy ki sarkar jab itne highways banar rahi hai. sarkar is on the full mood. sarkar is supporting. sarkar is getting new ports. sarkar is laying down the railway lines to carry the poll. so private people also feel confidence and because of that private investment also has increased now. because government spends has increased on capex. similarly deko buy and tax collection. to tax collection bhi aapka india ke kaafi aacha hua hai. okay you can see that in this graph direct tax and gst collections pe deko kitna zata increase dekhne ko mila hai. so that is also good and then you can see the revenue expenditure, limited growth in revenue expenditure. revenue expenditure koi hota hai. jo sarkar koi asset create nahin hota hai. as a salary dena and other things like that. so this is the revenue expenditure. usme jo growth hai po ho raha hai. but zada growth nahin kar raha hai. jyase capex double ho chuka. revenue expenditure is growing but at a very slow rate and that's very good. we need to cut down the revenue expenditure. we need to spend more and more money on capital expenditure because it adds forex to the economy and it does not add any much productivity to the economy. sati sa twin balance sheet problem that this is also a very important problem which india was facing. we will discuss in the chapter 2 kaisi ye itna bada problem hai twin balance sheet ka problem ka matlab kya hota samjum. for example i am the bank mera kaam kya payasah dena. company ka kaam kya hai payasah lena. agar malno mein boh daada payasah company ko deta hu. usme kya ho jati company over leveraged ho jaati hai. company over leveraged ho jaati hai. makhab company ne bohzada loan utha liya hai. all the expectations that ussare proposal ho jo sada karj kari. for example i am lnt. mein le liya loan 10 lakh crore ka. mujhe lagta hai ki mein ye road banadunga. mein boh highway banadunga. ye ports banadunga. okay. so okay. ban gaya to okay. lekin kalko malno. agar kuch problems khari ho gayi. slow down aagaya. matlab lockdown lag gaya. to kya boh project nahi bana pahunga. agar mein project nahi bana pahunga to mein loan kyaise chuka pahunga. agar loan nahi chuka pahunga to banks ko apna loan nahi milega. to banks ki halad kharab ho jaighi to banks mila ache company ko loan nahi de pahunga. so this is known as a twin balance sheet problem. the balance sheet of the banks deteriorates. the balance sheet of the companies deteriorate. so financial institution jo banks ho gayi nbfc ho gayi unke jo balance sheet hai unko impact poachata hai. aur jo companies hai jo non-financial institutions hai unke bhi balance sheet pe problem hota hai. to ache companies ko payasab mili raha hai because banks ki halad kharab hai. aur jo puraani company jo bohzada loan leki otha ke rakhe hai. unko itna loan dena chuka na pahunga hai ki boh nahi payase kharj kaha karing. unko saara payasab to interest chuka nahi milega raha hai. so this was the problem which the government was facing. but now because of the government's targeted measures because government hai bohzada reforms lahe jo aange ja ke dekhing insolvency, bankruptcy, code lahe ya, recapitalization of banks lahe ya, sarfisi yaat ko event kya and other things. aur uski bharise humana aaj koi twin balance sheet problem nahi hai. so ab dekh sakte corporate debt as a share of GDP has declined. corporate tax paan also lower. ti ke sab aange dekhingin hai hum lo. but balance sheets of the banks are much more stress free which has led to aggressive supply of the credit. to jab yeh sarkar aay thi 2014-15 main to aapko pata ussame raguram rajjan jaa exept kiye thi. aur uski same yeh pura NPA ka aapko exposure hua tha. aur uski baats yeh government pe kaafi ache se us pura NPA ke problems ko tackle kiye hai. because agar banks ki upar NPA ka bohzada loan rahega to banks are very reluctant to lend more. because banks derty hai ki already in loss meh pardar kya loss uthaingin. lekin abhi jo banks hai they are in a much more healthy manner. their balance sheet has improved significantly. and that is why banks are giving more and more loans. aur jab banks zada si zada loan degi to aapka investment. aapka infrastructure creation hai ho sab aapka improve ho jaata hai. now let's see so yeh dekhon aapke paas declining schedule commercial banks ka jo gross NPA hai. to aap dekhon NPA hai maara schedule commercial banks ka kis tari ke se ghat raha hai. sati saad provisioning coverage ratio aapka bul rahe provisioning coverage ratio besikali kya hota hai. for example agar main bank ho, meh profit kamaata ho 100 rupees. to ho 100 rupees hai meh kuch payasah store karna pardta hai. apne loss ko manage karne ke liye. jesse maal lo koal ko mujhe loss hota hai 20 rupees. to maa apne us provisioning coverage ratio ke hisaap se usko use kar sakta ho. to provisioning coverage ratio is money which every banks keep out of their profit. in order to compensate for the losses which it might incur in the future. so that is known as a provisioning coverage ratio. to provisioning coverage ratio is increasing. matna banks have more and more reserves. and schedule commercial banks ka jo maare NPAs hai wo bhi decline kar rahe. this we will understand the coming chapters. isko detail mein kaisi ghata hai, kyu yeh bul rahe hai aur yeh kyu ghata rahe hai. everything we will be discussing later. then the survey lastly talks about in this chapter is about India's inclusive growth. you know that India inclusive growth is a very important thing. you know that India is targeting. India has taken up pledge kis poore amrit kaal mein. we will be becoming a developed country. and sati saath India's prime minister Modi has taken up pledge that we will become a 5 trillion dollar economy in the coming term. so that is known as the size of the economy. size of the economy hume 5 trillion dollar ban na hai. but such economy can only become resilient. such economy can only become productive. such economy can only be inclusive when the shape of the economy also improves. so what do you mean by shape of the economy? if that economy grows is redistributed among the poor people. if that economy grows by creating more and more employment. if that economy needs to better health infrastructure. if that economy bleeds to better education. then that only growth is inclusive. until and unless the growth is not inclusive. there is no matter of growing. there is no matter of growing. right so isli survey ne bataya ki inclusive growth bhi humeara improve kiya hai. humeara employment improve hui hai. abhi recently humeara jo bachhe ka nutritional status hai. wo bhi improve kiya hai. right so the survey also talks about the inclusive growth. so aap dek sati hai humeara yeh hai urban employment rate. this has a 4 year look. ab dek ho pandemic ki summe it got increased to 20.9 percent. in dek ho june ke summe jab lockdown lockdown lag rahe thi. but now aap dek sati it has come to its 4 year look. so employment ab humeara vapas se increase kar rahe hai. ispore pandemic ke summe kaafi zada impact dekne ko mila. but now the things are much more improving. secondly msme sectors again humeara jo aage ja ke pahenge indetail msme sectors bhi kya ke government ne reforms kiye. but major big bang reform was emergency credit line guarantee scheme. jaha pe pandemic ke summe jitle bhi msme sectors hai. unko concessional loans dey again collateral free loans provided. msme forms the backpony. sare chode chode industries hai. maximum employment here se generate kar tha hai. manufacturing sector ka 50 percent value addition ye msme karthe hai. isli msme are considered as a backbone of Indian economy. isli government ne pole pandemic ke summe in chote industries ko kaafi zada support kya. and that is why aap dek sati ho humeara jo NPA hai. wo kaafi zada kum hoa hai. so dek ho ye those companies which has availed this emergency credit line guarantee scheme. kya hota hai usko aage pahenge. but unka jo NPA hai po dek ho 4.6 hai 5 hai 4.7. compared to those companies which has not availed ECLGS. kya so ECLGS was a very important flagship scheme. jiski bhe se NPA in the msme sector has come down. sati sa jo GST paid hai by msme that has also increased. so GST zada pay kar hai matab zada profit kab aar hai matab they are much more healthy manner. then sati saat robust safety net mg narega main aapko allocations ko barhai gai the pandemic ke summe. similarly aapke Pradhan Mantri Kisan jiski aar ek Kisan ko 6000 rupa milta hai ek saal mein. Pradhan Mantri Karip Kalyan Anayojna jiski aar aapko freekhana milna tha during the pandemic. and then National Family Health Survey ka data ke isaap se aap dek ho proportion of children who are scunted. scunted ka matab jin bachon ka height kum hota hai corresponding to its age. height for age wo ghata hai. wasting. wasting ka matab low weight for the height. so weight for height matab us height ke saap se jo weight ho na chahiye tha utla nahi usse kum hai ghata hai. under weight low weight for the age to jitna age hai aur uska jo weight ho na chahiye. agar usse kum hai wo bhi ghata hai. so that's what the survey says ki India ka jo growth hai after the pandemic ya before the pandemic also. so India's growth is not exclusive rather it is inclusive. that's what our Prime Minister Modi has given the slogan aur you see you know directions pe aap ke kaap ho rahe hai. lastly the survey concludes by giving the outlook for 2023 and 2024. India ke liye kaafi aur world ke liye bhi. cha ke aap positives hai what are the drivers of the growth and what are the shockers of the growth. what are the factors which might dampen the growth and what are the factors which might lead to further growth. so ek ek kar ke dekhthe hai what are the dampeners. matlab kum se asse problem areas hai jiski baise ekonomi pe problem aayega. to pehla cheez hai high inflation and consequent monetary tightening. ho sakta hai kal ko commodity price aur bhar hai war bhar gaya. inflation aur bhar haega to aur bhar nahi ke liye aur monetary tightening kar na parega to usse growth aur impact ho gaya. uski baise stack inflation bhi ho sakta hai stack inflation ka matlab stagnant growth. what high inflation stagnant growth and high inflation. now deko iss ka problem kya stack inflation ek mahat problem cheez hai sardat ban jaata hai. growth aapka ruka hua hai but inflation aapka bhar raha hai. aap inflation bhar raha hai to aapka kya kar na parega. referent ko hike kar na parega. mushkil kar na parega loko ke liye payasale na. but jase aap mushkil kar hoge to aapka growth already ruka pada hai. so growth ko bhar haane ke liye aapka payasale easy supply kar na parega. and inflation ko ruka le ke liye aapka payasale mushkil kar na parega. to karne to karne kya this is the problem. aap yaha pe phas jaata hai mahmla. ek taraf monetary policy committee kya karte hai inflation bhar raha hai to ruka sardate hai. policy rate ko bhar haige. but growth already bhar hot slow hai. growth 2% se ho raha hai. to ek opposite standard. jennily kya hota jab growth bhar rata hai aapka economy ka to inflation bhar rata hai. because if growth bhar raha hai to zada employment generate hona hai. zada employment generate hona hai. zada loke baas income hai to zada loke demand karenge to zada inflation hai. so generally the graph hota growth on inflation ki bheech mein. suppose this is the growth and this is the inflation. so graph is like this. jab growth bhar rata hai aapka to inflation bhar rata hai aapka. because growth ki baas zada employment, zada employment, zada loke baas income, zada demand karenge. but stack inflation mein kya hota hai ki inflation to bhar raha hai. but growth aapka constant hai. so this is a contradictory situation. sabhadar rahe ho. to growth ke liye aapkul tachis kar na parega aur inflation ke liye aapkul tachis kar na parega. to problems iss se aapki bhar jaati hai. second look up, the second dappar hai prolonged strains in supply chains and heightened uncertainty due to geopolitical conflict. to kalko agar hiye bhar bhar rata hai to again the supply chain might get disrupted. third dampener kya hai aapka maripas? low forecast of growth in the global trade. to global trade mein bhi aapko kaafi zada impact dekhne ko mil raha hai because of trade protectionism, nationalism rising in other countries, supply chain disruptions and other things like that. to trade agar kum hoega to kya hoega aapka export kum ho jayega. strong domestic demand admits high commodity price will raise the import bill impacting the can. strong domestic demand because india economy is resilient. hum log to khar denge hi khar denge to import bharega. lekin bahar ki countries kum khairi diri hai because bahar ki countries slow down ki tar bhar raha hiye. to export khat raha hai import bhar raha hai. aur sati saath commodity price, energy price hai boh bharega to mara kya hoa? current account deficit, way goods wala part jo current account deficit ka hai uspe further aasar bharega. and the widening of CAD will bring the rupee under the pressure. doller ki demand bhar jayega, rupee ki supply bhar jayega. doller ki demand bhar jayega to doller ki demand bharegi. rupee depreciate karega, rupee depreciate karega to further inflation bharega. so these three things have to be connected to you. inflation, depreciation, current account deficit, growth, monetary policy, fiscal policy. these are the crux of this chapter. so these are some of the dampness, what are the enablers? solid domestic demand. we saw that PFC is increasing, people's demand is increasing, so people's demand bharega to new factories will come. growth trajectory will be supported by multiple structural changes we will see in the next chapter. how the government has brought big structural changes like GST, insolvency, in backruptcy, code, etc. oil prices will stay low because we are getting cheap oil from Russia. so this way India current account deficit problem can be a little better. and the recessionary tendencies in advanced economies as soon as foreign economies will go into recession. so some people have a lot of money, so what will they do? so they will have to come back to India because India is only the growing economy. so if you want to grow in India, you can grow in India. future of the world lies in the growth of India. so the investors who are coming out, they will have to come to India because there will be a recession coming out. so this way the survey gives the outlook for 2023 and 2024. so this is the first chapter which we have done. in this we did it very slowly. because there is one chapter and the second chapter you have to explain. because you will get a lot of resources to do the survey. you will be getting a lot of videos on YouTube. but you have to understand the basic concepts. because if you look at the question in prilims, today they are very much complicated. till the time your conceptual clarity is not there, till the time you cannot tackle those questions. so you have to understand the best part of the economy. everything you have to understand by logic. so if you know that if people will get money out, then what will be the impact on inflation? what is the coupon rate in the government? what is the yield rate? if you don't understand these things in the basic way, then there is no point in understanding the economy. because at the end you will not be able to solve the questions. because now the competition and the level of questions they are asking is much more different than what they were asking. so in this way we will discuss all the chapters of the economy. so that you can really answer the productive questions. it is not only the completion of all the chapters. but at the end my focus is that you should be able to answer those questions in prilims. and the notes provided for the main points, so that you can write in the answer of the main points. so if you have a question about what kind of economy the future looks like, then you can use these summary points in your points with the exact level of data. so all these PDFs will be shared to you. and for any doubts you can also connect with me. i will be sharing the details so that you can connect with me. any problem will come. ok thank you let's meet again for the next chapter in some times. don't forget to like share and subscribe to our channel and press the bell icon to never miss an update.