 Good morning, Philippines, to all our viewers all over the world. Thank you for joining us today to talk more and learn more about the impact of political surveys in our national elections. Kung nasan man kayo nandakon ng mundo, sana po ay nasa mabuti kayong kalagayan. Only five months before the national elections in May 2022, probable winners are already being predicted by a number of well-known and not-so-well-known research and survey companies. Notably, the social weather stations and Pulse Asia Research regularly released their survey results showing a trend among the top three presidential hopefuls. There have also been some observations that these surveys may create trending making research and unwitting tool in priming certain candidates' chances. Welcome to the fifth installment of the National Forum on Communication and Democracy, Philippine Elections 2022. I am Ariel C. Sabellino, Executive Director of the Philippine Press Institute, also known as the National Association of Newspapers. I am going to be a host and moderator for today's program, which may also be viewed by a live streaming on YouTube at the TDUP channel as well as on the TDUP and the Philippines Communications Society Facebook pages, also being cross-posted in the Philippine Press Institute. We'll also have some live before we begin. Let us acknowledge the following. We'd like to thank the University of the Philippine System, Office of the Vice President for Public Affairs, Philippine Communications Society, which is organizing this webinar, UP Information Technology Development Center, TDUP, the Internet Television Network of the University of the Philippines, and everyone who has helped to make this forum series possible. Maraming salamat po sa inyong lahat, and because we have a lot of faculty and students watching us today, PCS members will be receiving a certificate of attendance as a benefit for their PCS membership as flash on your screen. There you go. If you have not applied for or renewed your membership yet, this is your chance to be part of the premier organization that represents the communication discipline to the Philippine Social Science Council, huwag na po magpatumpik-tumpik pa, ako po ay isang proud member ng Philippines Communications Society, now is your chance to be a member. The online membership form is available. It can be called from the PCS website, the fillcomsock.org slash membership slash again on your screen. And because this is the National Forum on Communication and Democracy, you want to make sure that everyone has an opportunity to be heard. So expect and I bet this is going to be an interactive program, a lot of fun learning activity that's going to happen this morning. So we will be using Mentimeter so that our viewers on Facebook and YouTube, not just people inside the meeting room, will also be able to participate there. We encourage everyone to participate in our mini quiz ayon ang sayasaya, madali lang po yan, mamaya sali tayo, sali kayo. Your answers will be discussed during our panel discussion later on and you will also see how the other viewers have answered. Ayon po ang Mentimeter code natin. Again, for all our viewers, including those in Facebook, go to menti.com and fill in the code slash on your screen or simply scan the QR code on your screen. Okay, I know that everyone is raring to get the show, going ako excited din po ako. Ako anong maraming salamat sa PCS for inviting me to be host and moderator for the last installment for this year, or second to the last installment for this year. So set the tone of Sacta Ochamba political surveys informing or priming. Let us hear a few words from the president of the Polytechnic University of the Philippines, Dr. Manuel M. Mukhi. Good morning everyone to our university officials. Dr. Hema de Mora, the Dean of the College of Communication, officers of Philippines Communication Society under Dr. Elena Perna and the rest of its officers and board members, faculty members, Dr. Maria Rosel San Pasual, chair of the Graduate Studies of UP College of Mass Communication, Dr. Imelda Dienla, associate professor of Atineo de Manila School of Government and Convenor of Voices Filipinas, Dr. Ronald Holmes, president of Pulse Asia Research Incorporated, Ms. Rwena Paraan, head of the ABS, CBN, NES Public Service, Bayan mo, Patrol mo, Mr. Ariel Civilino, Executive Director of Philippine Press Institute, guests and students, sang magandang umaga po sa ating lahat. Warm welcome to all and thank you for inviting me to deliver a welcome talk on your webinar series, this time entitled Sacta Ochamba political surveys informing or priming. All your efforts to educate and enlighten the different sectors of our society, especially the youth on issues pertaining media, communication and our democracy are highly commendable. Now more than ever, we need our people to be media literate, more discerning and able to decide intelligently for the future of our country. This pandemic has surely changed our lives and altered our pedagogical approaches in order to move forward. In the past months, we had no choice but to innovate and maximize available tools for us to communicate even while we were on community quarantine. The fact, however, that disinformation perpetrators have also recalibrated their schemes and use different social media platforms for their own ends is already public knowledge. I am glad that many media organizations and communication associations like the PCS, which spearheaded and launched webinars and different programs to educate Filipinos on this. Augmenting this disinformation problem is the prevailing manipulation of public information by desperate politicians who wanted to win the hearts of the masses at the onset of our Philippine elections 2022. So let me encourage all the participants to listen closely to the experts invited by PCS in this webinar forum that seeks to highlight the unintended consequences of political surveys. I strongly agree that there is a need to elevate public discourse on important issues like this in traditional, non-traditional and social media. Now more than ever because the future of our nation is at stake and these are concerns that are not to be taken lightly. I wish to congratulate in advance the Philippines Communication Society and all the people behind this program for taking the initiative to boldly tackle a very sensitive issue to enlighten our voters, especially the masses. It is laudable to help our fellow Filipinos to not remain gali-ball and naive to certain propaganda schemes behind polls, political surveys and the like. Pagpatulipo natin ang ating advocacy at mahusay na proyekto para sa inaasam natin pagbabago at pagunlad ng ating bangsa. Muli, maraming salamat po at magandang umaga sa inyong lahat. Maraming salamat for your inspiring message, Dr. Manuel Mukhi, president of PUP. We appreciate that you took time to sign a video message despite your busy schedule. We are grateful for the support of the entire PUP community to our webinar series. It's time for me to say because sa inyong maging masaya itong webinar natin Interactive Ikangan. You may now start answering the menti meter poll on your screen. Simply go to menti.com again and fill in the code as flashed on your screen at yung sa upper level ng inyong screen. Ito ang unang tanong natin. What are the words that you associate with political surveys? For this question, you may put in three words for our word cloud. You will notice or observe that the words will increase in size the more times they are mentioned by our viewers in the menti meter poll. We see some answers already coming in. Ating na natin. Mamaya, magbabago pa yan, or tata-aspend. We will leave the menti meter poll open for you as we go along with the program, i-reveal natin later and share natin sa ating mga panelist. Number two question. Ibo-boto mo pa rin ba ang iyong napukusuang kandidato baga much siya ay nungungalena sa sar bay? Ayyan. Anakon, napakasakit na tanong naman ito. Iknan natin mamay ang yung years old. As far as hearing from our viewers and starting to get answers from our viewers, let us now hear the word on the street with a person on the street in the reviews with TV UP. Let's watch this. Sa tingin ko hindi na kapapikto ang survey result sa akin person, sa akin position kung si Maybong mo. I think it's just one of the references that I can use to determine who would be the best person to elect. Ako bumaboto ko para sa tao, para sa qualifications, para sa values niya, para sa issues kung sa ancient existence. Yes, naka-influenced, kasi gusto kung makita, kung gusto kung manalo, ay may chance. I think the main reason we have surveys is for awareness that's one. This surveys guide the candidates on where to focus the resources and where to go. Sa tingin ko ang mga survey results ay ginagamit lang ilan para manipulahin o influential na ang election. Ako magmasyadong madaling maniwala sa mga survey na punokomision ng mga kandidato, especially mga survey na mga hindi kilala. They want to show who's most popular but it doesn't really give us an essence of what kind of people this popular persons are. Baglamad ang survey results ay mula sa isang scientific na process. Hindi pa rin ito sasapan para itahan o influenciahan kung talagang voices ng masa o yung voices ng mayoria. Just all be very careful because these are very important elections coming up. Pagtinghayaan na, influenciahan ng mga makapangyari ang tao yung mga democratic functions natin. Gumayarong tayong mga gustong manalo, pagpaturi natin ang support sa kanila. Hopefully tumas yung ranking nila sa mga susunod na survey. And let's decide as if we're deciding for the future of our families. Thank you very much TV UP for giving us the pulse of the people on the street interviews. To start off, let me introduce to you our distinguished panel of experts for our round table discussion this morning on SACTO o CHAMBA, political surveys informing or priming. Nakobagamat, ma-init ang magiging talakayan natin ngayon. Malamig ang panahon din, magpapas ko nga pero magiging ma-init ng ating talakayan ngayon. We are very proud to have with us this morning an associate professor of communication research which is currently the chair of the Graduate Studies Department of the UP College of Mass Communication in the Le Mans. She conducts both quantitative and qualitative research studies and primarily teaches quantitative research methods, measurement and sampling and quantitative data analysis in both undergraduate and graduate levels. Please welcome a very active PCS member, my dear friend, PCS Date, Dr. Maria Roselsan Pascual. Good morning to you. Thanks for joining us this morning. How are you? Good morning, Ariel. Good morning. Thank you PCS for inviting me. It's nice to be back. I can see actually a lot of familiar faces and familiar names. Ano para di ko na silang ma-isa-isa. Next, we are pleased to have with us on the panel an associate professor with the AT&E School of Government who has worked for so many years as a corporate and litigation lawyer. She is the convener of bosses opinion, siasat, and science para sa Pilipinas or bosses Pilipinas which is a university-based research unit to combat election disinformation and misinformation. Please welcome Dr. Imelda B. Dela. Good morning to you ma'am. Nice having you today. Magandang umaga po, Ariel. Magandang umaga din po sa lahat ng mga tagayup sa lahat ng nandibito ng mga academics from all over the Philippines and from all over the world, magandang magandang umaga ayong buntang po sa TANN. Thank you for joining us today. Also on the panel, it is a privilege to have whether it's the president of Pulse Asia Research Incorporated. He has served as three-time president of the Philippine Political Science Association and the chair of the Philippine Social Science Council. He is also professor of political science and development studies at the De La Salle University. Please welcome Dr. Ronald Holmes. Good morning to you. Thanks for joining us today. Magandang umaga, Ariel. Magandang umaga sa lahat ng official and member of the Philippine Communication Society at the member of the panel. Rounding up the panel, we are honored to have with us the former head of research at the Philippine Center for Industrial Journalism. Now heads, ABS-CBS, Bayan mo ipartal mo also may very good friend in the industry. Please welcome to the webinar award-winning journal season journalist. Niba wala na tayo masasabi pa. Rwena paraan. Good morning to you. Thanks for joining us this morning. Good morning Ariel. Good morning PCS. Happy to you. Good morning. Thank you everyone for being part of this experts panel for around. We'll discuss on the impact of political surveys on public opinion and politics. Okay, let's start with the person on the street in bird na pinakita natin kanina. You might want to weigh in on that as some comments from our speakers. Okay, Dr. Dayla nung pinapanood mo kanina nying sinasabi ng mga mga tao. What should take on that? I think unang-unang napakaganda ng mga pinakita but it really generally expresses the sentiments of people nung mga tao ngayon. And I think one of the key message there is that electoral polling has become part and parcel of the political discourse. Ibig sabihin, it's part of the contest naran. So being part of the political discourse and that is one reality that we have to really accept because it's really highly contested nowadays. And we can see that from the different opinions on of course nakita doon the trust is definitely or mistrust on the election polling. But at the same time on nakita din natin yung mga positive na mga pinakita nila it can be regrouped it can also reflect the views of the Filipinos but we can see the diversity of views and that I think that we should accept that kind of reality now. Dr. Holmes napanood nyo kanina nung masasabi nyo doon? Sorry Adela actually hindi ko napanood kasi nanunong sasang interview. Tapo fine ang magiging tanong ko sa inyo is that was there or is there a survey that actually surveyed as to whether or not people believe in surveys meron bang gano kasi andami na natin na encounter na surveys sa no any topics for that matter pero meron bang survey na nag-survey? Well, we've had questions in our own survey where we asked the credibility of surveys basically but of course we did not release the results of those surveys that we conducted but generally I think people think that surveys are credible of course it's a question now because the last time that we did that was quite some time ago right now I would agree that there are I think there's basis for some people to discuss surveys because there are just too many surveys that are clapping up and some of them do not explain the methodology how they did the survey work and they're being broadcasted as if they're representative and that's a problem there Is it easy to call out survey firms whether they're very small pag meron nakitang discrepancy okay for the public to really challenge survey companies or research companies? Well, I think that's the right of the public and for any organization that claims to be really a social science organization as in the case of policy Asia or also academics who belong to an independent non-partisan non-profit organization that's why we release our survey results and the release also comes with the technical details if someone says that our questions are leading then we have to take that and we have to assess on our own whether our questions are conditioning whether we did not follow the protocol and those are the things that you basically have to be prepared for as a social scientist di mo pwedi sabihin na wala kong pakakamali ay pinupuna ay pampakuna ay belibigay na isang nakaka-intindi kung paano ginagawa ang survey? Thanks, Dr. Holmes. Dr. Dayla, is there such a thing as fake surveys? As a fake? As fake surveys. Okay, kung meron, thank you. Yes, fake. Siguro po, survey in the broader sense is in its essence is dapat talaga rigurus may process systematic. That's how we call it survey. Siguro I don't know if I would ascribe the same term to other polls who conduct yung whatever like parang yung Facebook magpapalik or yung mga newspaper organizations that just put names or certain issues and have these emoticons they can choose that. But I think for me, survey can it should actually be should undergo a systematic process at nasabi nga kanina nirani dapat may veting then so we have what we call yung protocol so that's very strict guidelines that we can that we should actually be having before we conduct a survey. So for example as a university-based survey research we undergo like a university research ethics approval before we can even implement the survey to to our respondents. Dr. Chan kasi nangyanyan rin di ba pag hindi favorable tableable yung survey results yung tao na kasi fake news di ba ay wala yan kasi hindi naman hindi na mainaasahan namin yung gany ayoko nyan dahil hindi paborsa kandidato ko maraming tao o ang hindi paalam kung ano yung mga various types of surveys ipaliwanag mo sa amin sa atin what are the types of surveys saka how they can contribute to analysis I read your article sa Philippine star shout out ganda di ba I hope people get to be educated kung anong survey ang pinag-usapan natin as we talk about a lot of political surveys ngayon pa paano magiging circumspect yung public? Okay, sige pag pinag-usapan kasi ang mga political surveys wala ngayong election meron kasi pre-election surveys at ang sabi naman talaga ang description ng pre-election surveys ay snapshots so nung period na to pakiramdam ng mga tao most likely kung ngayon gagawin ng election sinong ibaboto nila and periodically kinokondak ito and ang iba dinagawa itong forecasting tool so ibig sabihin base base sa data nakuha sa isang pre-election survey dinagawa nila to ng formula with other indicators nung hindi lang yung resultan ng pre-election survey and they try to project kung yung nabay ang mga yayari sa May 2022 so ibig sabihin pag ikaw ay isang mambabasa or consumer ng isang survey result pinain mo ito ba pinag-usapan dito ay isang snapshot or is it an attempt to forecast kasi ibayo ne, may ibang formula na ginagamit for forecasting at iba din kapag dinidescribe itong cross-section itong period lang na ito so kailangan tingnan natin dya at kapag tayo din nagbabasa ng survey reports nakakapanoo nakakapakinig ng coverage to ko sa survey reports siyempre merong tayo kung baka indicator sa tinitinan sino ang gumawa ng survey anong polem institution nito sino ang nag-commission nito kung makikita natin yung mga simple statistics lang na markers like confidence level margin of error anong non-response kasi importan to rin kung siniyong sumagot at anong percent ng sumagot based on our target population sana itong mga ito ay protein dapat ginahanap natin kapag tayo ay nagbabasa ng survey result pa dinagin ng tanong dyan na iintindihan kaya ito nakaramihan ng mga tao basic survey maging tanong yan Dr. Chen kasi pagsinuri mo isang survey at ang point doon is to well hopefully to educate the public hindi mag trend or mag condition ng mind sana merong matutuna na makalap na informasyon na sa survey nabangit mo kanina nagbabago-bago merong changes at which point analize natin yung credibility ng survey pre-election ito yung ito yung result tapos post-election ito so at any point merong intermittent changes sana so how will people analyze it at which point in the changes na surveys I would think kasi mas papalapit ng papalapit ang election no mas naging reflective din yung mga pre-election surveys kung ano yung possible boating preference ng mga mga tao and din kasi ginagamitin kasi ang results ng pre-election surveys para i-direct o i-redirect ang campaigns din naman na mga kandida ito so may utility din naman may strategic purpose may strategic use ang mga result na ito so ginagawa din itong nila itong marker kung kaya tayo ba ay successful sa ating campanya or hindi anong segment ba ng population ng boating population dapat tayo mas magpursige sa ating pagangampanya so reflective din yun ng mga changes sa kanilang campanya sa sarin ang strategic campaigning kapag pinabasa nila at nakikita natin na over time nakakaroon ng changes sa boating preferences and I think din kasi yung intention to vote yung voting turnout mas nakikita natin yung mga undecided or hindi pa siguradong buboto na mas na encourage nilang buboto towards nearing the election or yung mga undecided mas nakakapag-decide na sila ako siyong iboboto nila so ito din yung mga changes na na-reflect ng mga periodic surveys leading to election yun nabangiti doko undecided hopefully kasi learning activity ng atong webinar natin hopefully after this webinar they get to decide already di ba sabi ng binangit nga kanina sa video di ba voting is just not just a political right a constitutional right pero we think about our families nipag bumoto tayo sa may when kupotang kita ngayon seasoned journalist and diamond mo ng Kinover tapos na na sa newsroom ka ito mga surveys na ito na suri mo na mingsan shocking kasi meron din academic surveys yung mga ginagawa ng mga university based survey units pero pa pano when well media outfit na pa survey Facebook post where you express those according to reaction like binangit nilang nila kanila like ng lalab, nang ticket, nang lalaf, why crime, mga moticon sa gan at sabi nga ni doctor saan nga na intindihan nila ko ano yung pinabasa nilang survey na di yung like nang nalagay na mga moticon how reliable or valid are web based surveys yung hindi pang kanin yung service na ginagawa ng post Asia, nang social weather stations and other reputable or big or major survey firms gusto ko yung term yung survey literacy kasi parang yun yung hindi masyadong napag-usapan how credible I think yung mga media organizations that do this kind of surveys kailangan lang claro kapag nirereport nila kung ane yung exactly how the survey was done ane yung methodology ane yung tanong I think the same transparency that we want from survey groups like post Asia and SWS ganun din naman yung gusto natin from media organizations doing surveys yung binanggit mo na examples yung ginagamit yung social media bukod dyan kuminsan may mga media organizations then doing exit polls after the elections after the voting so ano din yun ganun din yun sana may malinaw na pag-explain dun sa proseso hindi yung muna naman sila mapipigilan o nawaggawin nyan because that's one way of engaging their audience it's one way of getting more people to to their sites to their accounts so isang paraan siya to engage so hindi mo sa pweding sabihin nawag nyan gawin but they just have to be very clear kung pa pa nanilaginaw ay yung survey and just malinaw lang din ano lang yung gusto nilang maabot or kaya yung maabot mag-reflect from this kind of survey because hindi siya ganun kasi yan tipik no katulad nung nagawa ng ating formal survey groups well you talk about transparency and accountability pagpapapang co-conduct on surveys pero may alam ka ba naginamit ang survey for fundraising wing pero bang ganun? I think parang anong siya ngayon dinagawa siya hindi lang ngayon dati pano because surveys can be used as a fundraising tool it doesn't necessarily nina sino ang kumagamit ang survey are you saying nagamit ng mga kandida yes mga kandida siya lakon nila kasi pag limobas nung mataas nila sa survey they can go to possible campaign donors sakin ka na mag mag-donate kasi ako yung sure winner tingnamo tung survey Doctor Holmes alam mo may mga malalaking talaga ang sinabing post Asia social weather talagang credible believable ka aga nung and people really tend to believe the results of the conduct of their surveys pero what if Doctor Holmes maliit lang di mong reputable sa outside Metro Manila there are local surveys done by academics o yung mga maliliit na survey firms research firms siyempre people pag yung nga sabi ko nyo pag hindi fair of favor ang taka maliit pa na survey companies ayon nakakagad pa niwalaan is that fair well sa akin simula hindi yung patas it's not fair because the thing is that as mentioned earlier the first thing that we should note with regard to any survey organization is how they conducted the survey and that's very important I've seen provincial survey organizations that basically adhere to the norms of surveys based on the social sciences norms and they've done surveys I would not mention those are organizations but I do know of at least a handful have done local surveys and they're doing it well in the local surveys that they're conducting that are not just pre-election surveys they've done surveys that measure poverty they've done surveys that measure the impact of programs and there are reputable organizations in the provinces but one thing that distinguishes them from other organizations is that they make sure that their methodologies are defined and disseminated they're all transparent so yun na impotante ang pobleman natin nakikita ngayong kanina alial pinanomoy in fake surveys there are fake surveys over the last few elections we've had to deny that we conducted a survey kasi biglang yung logo ng Pulse Asia is posted on a survey there was even one time that our logo and the logo of the social weather stations it's like we collaborated on a survey nakon babutibin lang gitpo yung doctor homes kasi di ba ngayon yung transparency transparency survey na ginawa na isang ko sinuman yung mga pero called out by not less than the spokesperson ng Komilect James Jimenez na wala sinang kinalaman dun so is that a typical example of a fake survey? yun yung fake survey yung fake survey talaga yung naglalabas ng risulta ang sang politico allegedly naginginawa namin at menong sang survey na nagtatangdang ako na 2010 I had to go to media and explain to media that that survey was not done by Pulse Asia kasi na dali-dali kung takas o website namin i-copy mo yung logo namin niligay mo sa papel yun na yung di of course that candidate lost in that election good for him but any person could actually come up with surveys there have been occasions even in the past even before I was in Pulse Asia there were survey organizations that came up with the results and they were just simply shadowing SWS this was in 1990 to 1998 tapos baglasi na humiwala closer to the election po paganda yung main purpose ng ibang survey organizations so one of the things that we should know is who are behind the survey what questions they ask what is a methodology that they followed that will allow us to distinguish between reputable and those that are furious and believable survey organizations yun yung veracity ng result or even reputation ng surveying company or research company babdik ako kaya just to let you remind our audience that you can already especially in the meeting you can already key in your comments or questions in the Q&A portion of this webinar at yung pung nanono sa atin sa YouTube at chaka sa Facebook host natin ay ma-ariput kaya mag-participate din sa ating Q&A the PCS team is actually monitoring your questions and comments Dr. Dainla Does timing matter sa survey? Will you be with anybody be suspicious pag nag-serve o pinalebas ang resulta bago ang isang bago ang caping season or ngayon meron na, di ba election fever? Well sa ating I'm not as I mentioned I'm not an electoral poll we're not doing electoral polling we mostly do social science survey research because our surveys are actually based on a particular research study based on a particular research question and we are identifying and measuring certain variables and that but I think in terms of electoral polling this is just my opinion timing is of course quite important but we know also that when it comes to electoral pre for example before announcement of candidates it's also been used by by certain polling units kung baga to gauge yung popularity ng mga kandidato na yan so in most cases most of those candidates have not yet expressed their desire or their intention to actually run so in a way in a way there is also conditioning to that and we should nga sa mga pagaaral for example some of the voters na hindi talaga popular are actually nilalaglag kung hindi popular and so it's somehow it's also discriminates or actually marginalize yung ibang kandidato na hindi popular but they are also capable but so that is one of the unintended consequences of that of election polling especially pwede nilalaglag o pwede ding nilalako Dr. Dayla di ba yes sir yes siguro yung po that's one of the unintended consequences of these things but in any in any political action and I would say that electoral polling is a political action there are also unintended consequences with that and as already discussed both the politicians and the electorate are actually quite strategic they are both strategic in the way they see the polls so with the electoral with the voters they are quite also strategic in the sense that may mga pagaaral sa US for example kung gusto nilalaglag yung isang kandidato na talagang popular they would actually vote for the second most popular voter and of course we know yung trending yung bandwagon effect and some studies have confirmed that although of course we don't know the extent yung effect ng bandwagon effect doon sa voters natin it's a name recall di ba yung really people tend to well not forget popular names Dr. Chan oft repeated margin of error paliwanag natin baka kailang mainting na this margin of error sa isang survey okay may ibad iba kasi na nagamit itong margin of error at nitsan nakakalito kung paano siya new report at sa anga ba ng gagaling ito sa from the survey process siguro offhand yung utility ng margin of error ay factor din sa pagkalimbawa pag compute mo ng sample size na sa sampling design mo yung margin of error so may mga formula sa pag compute ng sample na pinapasok ito yung pinatawang margin of error sa ating prediction and then nitsan din ginagamit din ito to report kung ano yung kung baga ano yung range kung saan natin pwede yung mga predict yung true population value so pwede rin halimbawa ginagamit yung margin of error of 5% plus minus 5 or 3% ibig sabihin yung range na yung plus and literally yung add and you subtract dun sa point estimate dun natin pwede makita yung true population value or ito yung range kung ano man yung minimized variable ito yung range kung saan pwede yung true population value so dito din natin pwede yung ma-assess na nitsan kasi nakikita natin ang bakit iba yung result malumabas dito sa survey report ng org one or polling institution one tapos iba naman yung survey results sa polling institution two so we can actually na baka magkaibas sila ng point estimate pero pag inad subtract natin yung margin of error hindi naman nagkakalayo yung range of values na pinapakita nila for example 30% plus minus 3 so that would be from 27% to 33% and the other polling institution may not be exactly same 30% but it's still within the range of 27% to 33% for example so ito yung para bagpag kompleto ng picture na pagtingin natin sa mga sa mga result na now minsan meron din mga error terms tayo tinatawog sa research for example na pwede akikabit sa technical term na confidence level minsan kasi kung sinabi natin for example at 95% confidence level meron tayo sinasabi na 95% of the time we're actually reporting the true population value and meron 5% chance na hindi natin makahagip yung true population value but then again confidence level yung range of interval yung values na meron of error or any type of error na statistically computed ang basis ay representative sampling so kung ikaw again consumer or member ng public na nagbabasa ng research report kapag nakikita mo na to mga technical terms sa to hanapin wagin nag-representative sampling ba yung ating survey group or yung ating survey institution nag-release ng report kasi hindi ka mga kapag claim na confidence level ng margin of error kung hindi ito galing sa isang systematic umparaan ng pag-ahanap ng member ng population para bumuok ng sample mo so ano yung siguro isang tip yung sa ating mga students and audience here tingnan kung representative sampling na at itong nga ba kinunga sa population randomly natin pinatawag or through probability sampling and from there do natin pwede yung itchek na ay to make sense of the confidence level of origin of error itchek na. Dr. Chen, what you're saying ruler of thumb para-para yung scientific method na ginagamit so meaning walang question sa veracity kasi making use of science to make it a credible survey result right? um yung basic principle again following the logic of the science um pagsinundan mo talaga yung scientific method of doing social science research no um meron naman tayo mga yung mga guidelines on how to properly do it no um but then again dependent sa survey firms kung paano nila i operationalize for example yung kanila sampling design consider yung location considering the target population or their target sample considering the mode or the platform that will be used uh rolling out the survey so kasama yung sa mga considerations na ko pero I think kung ikaw ay talaga legitimate no na research group no you strictly follow the guidelines for conducting scientific research when ito na alala ko sa isang webinar natin or online activity natin yung kasama natin si Joyce di ba she was making print about ito reporter nya nang complainsya ito isisusulat mo sa report itong survey asan yung baka asan yung elemento ng margin of error ano ba yung transparency et cetera ikaweng nasanyuso ko na napatagal napatagal na panahon how do you see through surveys na automatic ba na pag post Asia or SWS agad-agad pinapalabas yung resulta ano yung mga consideration bago nyo gawing report ang isang survey or bago nyo ilabas ang isang survey sa newsroom for public consumption okay that's a very good question actually unang-unang nung nags-start yung delusion yung mga surveys related to the elections we actually held a round table discussion with survey experts para mag-guide yung newsroom not just the reporter who's doing the story but the editors as well and everybody who's going to be involved in crafting those stories so an RTD experts katulad ni Dr. Ronnie Holmes na hakatulong ng malaki na nag-divigation ng background on how surveys are done kapag may mga questions yung mga editors bakit parang merong conflict between what we get from the ground as journalists and also in the survey results so sa ganung level palang na nakakaruna kayo ng nag-level off na kayo on how to handle survey stories and then when the surveys are done of course you give guidance to the journalist kung pa pano niya dapat tingnan yung survey you go to the website not just not just read the press release mahalagang explain yung sampling at saka yung margin of error and all others na related dun sa survey na yun ang hindi maganda is kapag yung media nereport niya yung survey results na parang horse race na ang binidigyan lang ng emphasis ay kung sino yung nandun sa mga unahan at saka kung sino yung parang kolela or yung nahuhule and that's what we don't want kaya yung term kanina na survey literacy I think that's important both for the journalists who are doing reports on surveys but also for people na for the public mahalagang ipaintinde yung iba't ibang klasi ng survey ang yung mga proceso like yung difference between forecasting and then the snapshot survey ang ganoon so andami kung natutotunan ngayon and since we also do erection reporting workshops for citizen journalists sa bayon may patrol mo I'm realizing that we should expand we have a session on surveys how to understand surveys but it seems there are a lot more that should be included and then it should not be limited again just to the citizen journalists to bayon patrollers but maganda yung mga explainer that are easy to do because you can post it in the social media accounts of the news organization and it's there for people to look at and to serve as reference when surveys come so kapagagawa ka ngayon ng story on a survey result pwede mong ilaga yung link so that people can be guided by that explainer video or explainer article about surveys Doctor Holmes please explain to us what you say about commission surveys or paid surveys kasi baka ito I'm pretty sure ito yung di naintindihan ng publicon they actually consume or read surveys na merong people behind that merong nags a survey at siya meron din nagbabayad Well, commission surveys is like any commission research as social scientist we do research when our research is funded might be by the university that we belong to or by an external organization that's the same thing as a commission survey but as researchers we should maintain our independence if it's a commission survey we accept commission surveys it may come from partisan or non-partisan groups but the survey itself how the questioner is framed the method that could be used when the survey would be contacted are essentially in the hands exclusively under the control of the survey organization so what natin masamain yung commission survey kasi their research are commission also ang dapat natin malaman eventually would be how the survey was conducted in our case for example when we accept commission survey there's a contract between us and the commission entity that contract applies at a limited embargo may mamimpeding is a billion result until a year after but after that embargo academies can go to us and look at our commission surveys and can assess whether those surveys were really done following yung ethics and norms of social science surveys so that is done and sample may mga commission survey sa real na release nalilik yung ilang result sa public and when media gets to us we confirm or deny whether it's actually a survey that we did Dr. Holmes speaking of independence which you actually mentioned how do you keep your independence from commissioning parties well, first of all hindi wala silang pakilam sa bubo ng survey itself ang nililino lang namin anong kanilang objective what is the objective of the commissioning entity we've done surveys for international organizations we've done surveys for political parties the first thing that we clarify in before the survey is done what are the objectives of the group then we are the ones who basically flame the design of the survey including the questionnaire and then we release the results to them whether the results are payable or not I can give you one example there was one survey that we conducted years before I remember and it was for a individual who was not known to be tolerant towards any unfavorable result so I had to give our staff pag hindi ako tumawin sa inyo after 2 hours pa hanap nyo ako because that's our responsibility as researchers we cannot withhold the results of our research it's something that we agree with or something we disagree with we have to release it that's one of the things that distinguishes academics from non-academics di natin pwede i-manipulate dahil hindi natin gusto nagiging resulta and that's our stance with regard to commission surveys kung masama resulta it doesn't favor the one who commissions it we have to tell them essentially they disagree with it then they basically wasted the information and collected systematically Doctor, kung nabibenta ba ang survey our savory result well in our case at least we don't we never did there have been attempts even up to now there have been attempts of people talking to me and asking me is it possible to increase the data we have mechanisms to protect the integrity of our survey but there are surveys that I know of where the results are really highly improbable may just suspicious and I don't know exactly I don't have any proof as to whether they were paid paid in a way were in paid to produce those favorable results but that is not the case for institutions such as us and those other reputable organizations that have been operating for the last two or three decades yung na Doctor kung si ba for transparency accountability dapat talaga as I asked when kanina pag pinapalabas ang isang survey kailangan talag ilagay the commission or paid by para alam ng publikon yung ito ay bayad pinayaran yung survey company correct ano yan nasa patakala ninyan kami katulad ng ibang survey organization ay membo ng ilang organization where a member the Philippines social science council like PCSS the Philippines social science council as a code of ethics where a member of the market market research society more or less in the Philippines where a member of the world association of public opinion research and there are norms that we have to conform to and we can be basically dismiss as members of those organizations so that's why ako I'm glad the PCSS is sponsoring this one maybe PCSS has a better role to play in terms of improving that survey or statistical literacy I know that association does its work I know that PCSS is also doing its work maybe they can collaborate in improving the survey literacy that was mentioned earlier Doctor Chen ang ganda na binanggit mo kanya about survey literacy debat as nusobel di ito ni when sa kanyang sharing how meaningful are surveys when they only cover a small sample as compared to well 63 million voters ang tanong oh pumunta ka sa isang community ilang ba yung isang community is that representative of the entire population ng voters yun nga laging yung tanong actual number of registered voters in the Philippines how do you determine the sample to derive representative results kani na medyo inupisahan mo na kani na pero palawagin pa lawaking mo pa yung sharing mo about that Gusto ko yung pano nagiging meaning po lang survey simulan ko mo na doon nabago ko pumunta doon sa sample yung value ng survey again, I think nabangkit kani na ay nababasi yun hindi lang sa sampling it's an important ingredient pero kasama na yung pinatawag nating validity-reliability yung principle ng validity-reliability sa research ay hindi lang naging emanate from sampling decide kasama na yung mismo questionnaire mo yung pinatawag nating measurement validity and reliability in research so paano ba nagtano ko ba na compose ng questionnaire mo saan bagaling yung mga variables mo ito ba ay nilift mo from existing literature na nagsasabi na ito yung best way or better way to ask questions at ito yung scale na gagamitin at na reliability test na nila so pwede mong hiramin itong scales na ito so sa pag-construct ng question inakadim kasi hindi natawag namin from theoretical conceptual to operational framework ito yung terminology yung namin sa academics sa mundo na akadim so yung conceptualization operationalization down to instrument design nag-weave yung together at ito ay nagsisimula sa pagbabasa kami mismo social science researchers sabi nga ni Dr. Imelda kanina hindi naman kalaga kami election pollsters so pag kami gumagawa ng social science research ang first assignment namin ay magbasa so we read and we check the literature kung paano nga to frame the questions that will help us address our research objectives so from checking theories checking models down to conceptualization down to operationalization and then when we develop our instrument hindi lang yun basta sigisulap natin yung mga tanong na ito kailangan din na sa lingwahi siya na naging tindihan ng kausap namin because survey instrument is a communication device hindi lang siya isang instrument na abas na ma-tanong ko yung tanong ko ok na it should be able to communicate kung ano yung tanong nagusap mo talagang masagot nila sa paraan na ma-intindihan nila at hindi lang yung tanong masking response options should also be listed in a way na ma-intindihan nila ito mga options na to pati yung mga instructions nod yun papasak ngayon yung ito bang survey na to ay interviewer administered or self-administered kasi kung self-administered wala yung diyan mediated ng isang interviewer so dapat self-explanatory yung mga instructions tanong and set of options ngayon na mga kung may interviewer ka it dapat din ang interviewer mo ay hindi nakapag-baya sa results sumisilusundan din yung standard script para din alam kung alam niya kung paano i-deliver yung nga tanong so ito again ay pagtulong to achieve measurement validity and reliability of course we pre-test before we actually roll out ilang sessions yan ang pre-testing hindi lang yung content pa pinipretest mas kuyong form mas kuyong language pinipretest so again measurement validity and reliability now sampling ang sampling ibang validity naman kasi ang ina-address ito ito yung tinatawang nating external validity ibig sabihin ang result ba from my sample can be used to make sense or inferences about the population that the sample is supposed to represent pero mong gagaling lang yung yung yung yung pagtanong nga gumagamit ng representative sample so kung meron 63 million voters for example ilang ang mag-re-represent nung 63 million voters at paan yung mo ido-draw yung yung mag-re-represent sa 63 million na yung yung tinatawang nating sampling design at ang goal niya is to generate a representative sample again niy mga formula na ibang formula na ginagamit and descriptions how to draw a representative sample pero i think isensyally ang kailangan mo kung baga the conceptual ingredients for representative sampling are adequately sized and randomly drawn adequately sized anubang size ang tama anubang size ang tumpak again may formula but isensyally most formula would require confidence level ang desired confidence level anong expected heterogeneity or variance of population anong tolerable margin of error so it usually iseng ingredients na pumapasok sa computation ang sample size pero hindi lang sample size dapat ang tiniping na nating kasi kahit naman may 63 million kailang bawat napakalakin ang sample mo kung ito naman ay hindi randomly drawn wala din hindi rin natin to pwede ng gamitin na mag-re-represent sa mas malaking population so for us it's not enough to ask sample size we also ask randomly drawn ba yung sample na ito and itong ingredients atto adequately size randomly drawn ito yung pwede nating again measure na po tayo ay nag-evaluate ng ating binabasang survey results kung itong ay yung protocols for delivering and adequately size randomly drawn sample ay binamit nalalo at least alam natin na representative yung sample na yun ng population pero meron parin iseng pero parin kasi ang ganda-ganda ng sampling design kasi sa piscina ng research ng research group ang ganda ng pakaalak ang ganda ng instrument na pre-test ang ganda ng protocols almost perfect na kung baga pa pero nung ni rollout mo meron nang mga ayo mag-participate so randomly drawn pero ayo nila mag-participate at tinatawang nating non-response so oops so kahit na napaka ganda ang pakaplano mo actually rolling out sa field ano naman yung non-response because these should also be reported or at least sa mundum naman ng research group aware sila kung ano yung rate ng response versus yung non-response kasi parang if meron specific characteristics yung mga supposedly members ng sample na hindi nag-respond and different yung nga nag-respond may bias na nangyari so kailangan di natin i-check ayo although scientifically medyong mahirap i-measure kung anong habi ang characteristics nung non-response pero may mga statistical corrections de naman i-implement to adjust ito mga unexpected na non-response pero for it talaga siya ng survey implementation ayon very interesting work on surveys and well baka magingin interesado ang madami na mag-survey sa atin ngayon na take up a course communication research or pinaplag ng communication research course ng nang not just UP but by any other school naman offering communication research so interesting work and laborious work din di ba Dr. Chenk Dr. Danela have you ever called out an organization or any individual that or who shared or posted a survey result that you thought was of questionable integrity or credibility and that's speaking of tanina binabangit di Chen ang reliability speaking of reliability are you also far wala pa naman and I trust naman pero are you willing to do that kasi di ba na ko sa panahon niya ito ngayon I'm pretty sure di ba merong manipulation of survey results I'm not saying ang survey companies research companies ang mag-manipulate e kasi alam mo naman di ba photoshop ang result at magugulat ka na lang siyepin binagitin Dr. Holmes nanggulat na lang sila ang logo ng firm nila o ng comic yung pala manipulated di ba hopefully you do not encounter that sir actually nga may nag-consulta sa akin kasi there is a provision by comic rules if this actually applies actually to those fly by night pollsters kung ito bang provision ng comic would apply to those and could be a basis to actually call them out and actually complain and report that so I think for me yung sorry ko I forgot already that provision ng comic in terms of yung papalaganap ng mga fake news or fake or disinformation and disinformation I think for me it could be a basis for a complaint actually po and because we know that yung pagpapakalat ng fake polls as we would call it ayon when babalakan kita di ba siyan pero matong ethical guidelines in covering elections and maritime provision doon in using surveys and that we as journalists and media practitioners have to be circumspect na whether ang survey niyang galing sa isang rapitabong malaking major maliit akademik ba yan or hindi pero kailangan yung any survey for that matter not doon elections during elections or before elections pero when you're doing tawag ito citizen journalism di ba and then you're also planning to include that in the course meron kayong ginagawa ngayon and people as part of the we have a partnership on elections reporting and that papanu ba for citizen journalists sa kanila ituro yung pagging circumspect sa isang survey given na yung pag sa isang journalist naman talagang professional journalist meron kang vetting meron kang editor kasi meron kang supervisor news program et cetera pero pag citizen journalist na well ang maalaga is how to understand surveys so yung yung session that we teach ano siya the training is about reporting elections monitoring and reporting elections so hindi lang yung araw na election but the campaign then na pwede nang simulan ngayon dahil andami na nang nungpanya and part of the training course understanding surveys ano lang to very basic kasi dahil nga sa adami ng survey and then also part of the advocacy ng bayon may patrol mo is yung fighting disinformation so dahil andami fake na surveys na lumailabas or andami nagtu-twist ng surveys so we want patrollers yung mga citizen journalists to submit reports to us to understand surveys so kasama doon yung sinong nagkokondak ng survey how the survey is done who's paying for the survey then looking at the question exactly what was us tinuturo namin sa kanilan na magka-ibay yung tanong na kapaginaway ang halalan ngayon sinong iba-boto mo iba yung doon sa kapaginaway ang halalan ngayon sinong satihin may manalalo so very very basic kasi yung survey literacy na natutunon ko ngayong araw na to na term is really very important pati yung usapin ng margin of error when was the survey taken so yung giving it context but very careful na hindi rin siya kausality so just for them just to be aware what were the headlines yung time na yun na pinuhay yung survey so baka meron siya impact doon sa resulta o kung ba pano nag-iisip yung mga tawa at that time so yung mga ganyto very basic gusto namin na maunawaan para pag sasusunod na makarinig sila ng balita tungkol sa isang survey result kahanapin na nila yung tanong titing na nila kung saan yung sampling pilipeanis ba yan tinuha o baka dito sa mga urban areas na ganyto so at least magigisilang mas critical and that's what we want for people to be more critical para mas maintain dihan din tapos kasi yung survey yun para ginagamit siyang weapon para siyang winawasi was ng mga political groups against dun sa kalaban nila so kala may intendahan nila na yung youtube ng post na merong tumayo dun sa canto at tina nung yung mga taon na dumadaan tapos nilabel na na survey iba yan dun sa mga surveys na ginagawa nung katulad ng false Asia good point sabihin na survey hindi siya survey maganda yung point ang the weaponization of surveys tiba adami natin na tututunan yan in a little while we are going to accommodate or in questions from the Q&A portion of this webinar quickly up to what extent the surveys influence the conduct of political parties and the voters' perception and choices Chen one sentence I think sa punto ng mga political parties very strategic naman nila from the very beginning so talaga be strategically used results of surveys for the public ang hirapsagotin ng mabilisa nito kasi when you're looking at effects for example andami kasi ibat-ibang effects kapag pinag-usapan ang voters kung paano nila ginagamit ang result ng surveys it depends ma-raming individual variables or individual factors that would determine to what extent a voter would actually use the results of surveys for some buu na yung decision nila na kagayangan sa ba ano natin na natin sa survey natin na nila makakapicto ba sa iyo sa pagboto mo yung result ng survey dici diba ka na kung sino ibaboto mo yun na yan na yun sa mga decided more or less fix na yun na yun na yun ito na talaga ang result ng survey na yun po medyo hindi favorable ang result ay na kung medyo alanganin yung kandidatong talagang ibaboto nila sa survey then they can do their own campaigning then to help their candidates pero iba din naman ang hulma kapag ka mga undecided pack kasi ito yung again based on literature based on studies yung mga undecided sila yung mass micro-pensity mag-check na na result ng survey at may ibad ibang behavior kway di mag-bandwagon na sinasabi na yung consensus heuristics na eh andaming ang daming gumoboto dito no siguro ibaboto ko to may rungding norms na ayung kung sumangali sa mga talunan so gusto ko dito yung gratification of being on the winning side yung mga psychology kasi yan na I want to be part of the winning side so I'll vote for the trending mga gano so yun yung part ng bandwagon yung consensus yung gratification na being part of the winning side may rungding nang ibab underdog phenomenon yung hindi nila ibaboto yung nag-ilit pero ibaboto nila naman yung mga nagtitril behind so may psychology then behind that and may rungding nang ibab na kahit na undecided strategic pa rin sila so ayung kasi nilang mawaste yung vote nila so titi na nila yung survey along with other information na titi na nila at i kagamit nila sa pag-decision at pipili sila accordingly so iba-iba yung pabagapagamit sa result ng survey dipendi kung nasa ang kasaspectrum ngayon nako andami binangget y Dr. Chen na kailangan natin i-process later on when mayroka ng speaker sa survey literacy mo si Dr. Chen it's going to be a full course it's going to be a full course it's going to be a full course it's going to be a separate session Dr. Day, your take on that question will agree po ako doon sa mga nabangget ni Dr. Wang Dr. Wang kasama namin sa isang collaboration sa isang ASU project but ang daming rason sabi kung nga kanina is strategic yung part ng voters but also yung political leaders in using the survey so kaya dapat po talaga pag-iraling natin yung how we can actually educate the voters to make them more aware at siguro nga ipalala yung vote by conscience yun ang take ko don't vote with your conscience and not with the results of the polls this is a very important polls that we are facing right now so personally hindi dapat basihan ang polls in voting in such a very important period in our political history po Wang educate, educate, educate acording to Dr. Day Dr. Day Dr. Chen po yun si Wang po ay yung journalist natin na kasamahan Wang Yes po yun up to what extent do survey influence the conduct of political parties and the voters perception and choices quickly yung the polls that are scientific and if you're a candidate pakingan mo siya titingan mo may value ang polling so I think dapat nilang gawing basis for their decisions hindi necessarily for the voters I agree with Mami Melda to Dr. Day na hindi dapat batayan yung survey results ng kung sino yung iba-boto but for the leaders for the politicians po hindi nilang gamitin yun kasi that scientifically dan that's a reflection of the sentiment of the people Dr. Holmes Siya sa medyo yung verdict as to anong effect na survey at least in academic literature is quite ambivalent kasi may maagwan effect yung sumusulog sa Quinn literally may snow underdog effect yung sumusulog sa nohule nagmobilize at nagkakancel out yun sa akin ang malaga the survey is basically as Wayne pointed out they capture what people's sentiments are at a particular point in time we have to understand why people's dispositions voting dispositions is such bakit lumalamang ito isang kandidato na ito as social scientists we cannot make socials as to the basis of that unless you do FGDs and I've seen some FGDs which dig deeper in terms of why is it that people support a particular candidate minsan na way windang na ako kung pangarunikin tehilan but of course as social scientists we just have to accept those statements so the survey tell us what the representative sample of Filipinos if it's non-probabilistically but it should not dictate how we vote I have always said in every interview for the last decade or so I have never voted for someone who has stopped any of our surveys to say I have never voted for a president who has won and the senators that I voted for most of them did not win because I believe that whatever my aspirations are I will vote only for the individual who would work for those aspirations aspirations that are shared by many other Filipinos at least from my perspective so I have the same advice to people also don't be swayed by what the survey say but try to act as a citizen based on those results if you want to mobilize support for the candidate that you're supporting or inform many more people about how this candidate is really fair in terms of certain criteria and yung malaga and I think that's what media organizations are doing and that's what motor education and civic education groups are also doing so I support that but the thing is that there are surveys that are being done that are systematic and scientific there are surveys that are being done that are unbelievable at just one point mingsan nagugulat ako that media organizations not all but there are some reports that I see in newspapers or in broadcast films that capture surveys without really explaining what the method is yun yung nakakabulat kasi mingsan nasa headline pa yung screaming headline screaming headline na lamang pero pagdiyin nang mo yung story ng survey nabili doctor ng Pasquale it's not supposed to be taken sa representative it's not it's not even a probabilistic design ayun thank you very much to our panelists for that insightful discussion or conversation if I may say nipaputayo tapos now we are going to enter in questions from the audience pero bago yan before I start treating some questions from our viewers let us first have how our audience let us see how our audience have answered a plan please earlier with our mentimeter poll results tina natin ang ayun sa unang tanong natin kanina what are the words associated political surveys tina natin ang lumalabas na pinakamalaking word is wow propaganda ok tanungin natin ang panelist mama ibig sabihin nyan na ito pa sa pangalawa take note panelist ang lumabas sa propaganda sa pangalawang tanong ibu-boto mo pa rin bang ayun na pukusong kandida to bagamat sa ay nangungulala sa survey o walae ang lumalabas 40% o tanungin natin ang please take note of a particular answer or result of the survey nang mentimeter natin mentimeter poll 40% said o ibu-boto pa rin nila ok tanungin na natin ang ating mga panis very quickly lang Dr. Chen quickly yung lumabas propaganda ay ting kasi yung yung politicization ng survey na associated as such na naging political na siya so yung survey as a tool for sense making na bahira na ng perception na nagagamit siya na ilang mga politico to their advantage at ko'y din manipuluhin to their advantage pero again ko while it's healthy it's healthy to be critical readers of survey results maganda yung maganda yung ganyang klasi ng approach na lalagi kang may pagingin na tama nga ba to o mali sinusundan nga bang tamang process or every time pero nagkarundin kasi ng bahid ng impression na ito ay nga vehikalaman para magandigato para magkampanya so medyo din meron yung feeling ko dito may pagkaang bivalent yung feeling ko na in a way maganda na may opinion ang mga tao total sa public opinion surveys kasi stakeholders tayo so it's nice sa we have opinion at maganda naging critical sila but at the same time as a member of the community na doing social science research medyo masama karamdam ko na hindi pa tayo naging magaling na ambassadors for social science research so may ginito klasi ng impression because tayo parang yung ngayon we actually protect that we try our very best to protect the integrity of social science research that's why we follow the protocols for valid reliable conductive survey no so ipag ming mga gilitong impression parang medyo may sakit din, may curot din sa puso but then again it's healthy and the question we're actually very critical engage yung public Dr. Chen exactly that's what we do but mamaya baka magbago pa yan kasi meron pa time posted on the same questions Wen ang lumalabas iboboto pa rin nila kahit wale ang kandidato nila sa survey kasi ibig sabihin ang basis nila ng pagpili ng kandidato ay dun sa criteria nila hindi yung nagpapadala sila sa survey alial yung point lang sa survey baka siya tinitig na na propaganda kasi sometimes the survey results are being used to deflect issues or to justify halimbawa may malit o kaya may kaso pero sa sabihin hindi yan toto o kasi tingnam mo ng rating sa survey so ibig sabihin yung mga tao na niniwala o hindi yan toto o so ginagawa siyang pang camouflage ng ibang issue so kaya yung perception na panang propaganda siya kasi ginagig siyang ganoong tool kaya I think nagkakaroon ng ganun Very good point on veering away from the burning or relevant issues di ba Wen ok pero namin nating nating ko magbabago yan ito yung early results ng ating menting metropole ito I'm going to read some questions ready from our audience I'm just going to move closer my face kasi hindi ko ba sa atong mabasa pero wait I'll just turn up with your permission guys permission from our panelists organizer I'm just going to turn this off yung video ko para makita kasi lalapit ako sa screen ko teka lang ha kasi ang pangansagawa naman kung mukha ko yung mga makikita niyo sa screen ok from our good friend babagitin ko pangalan niya Aris Gutierrez How can ordinary number numbers averse people like me like him now determine if a survey is legit or done with no hanky hanky involved ayon kahit sinong sumagot kaya isalang para makacobodit pa natin yung other questions siging nga sino pang gusto sa mga ito for any one from the panel Dr. Holmes wala kumike mo bago volunteer ako Dr. Holmes please I think it's like any other organization one of the things that we should note is that when an organization disseminates any information the best way to determine whether it's legitimate or not is when people are transparent about what the organization belongs to the organization what the organization stands for so that's an important thing because minsan may mga survey ako nababasa binapang get ko sinin gumawa kung hindi mo alam kung sinin yung taong na sa likod nito kung na yung methodology hindi sa binubuot ko yung sarili nabibang ko it's a policy in our organization for us to release our survey results to media to the public it's on our website the questions are there the technical details are there the members of the board the plus piece of Pulse Asia are also known my cell phone number which has been hacked for quite some time now it's also known so when people for example do not appear in media interviews but you do have a media release that to me is already suspicious nagikita mo yung may news story pero hindi mo nagikita yung taong na yung representative no organization so transparency is important and that applies in many ways including a description as detailed as possible of the methodology Dr. Chen actually narrated already ano yung process na yun mahabang process yun very technical yun but everyone has to follow it otherwise you're bound to commit not just sampling errors but also base a number of non-sambling errors that we cannot in any way compute Doctor I hope you don't I'm just curious anong pinakamating issue na pinokon or binato sa survey firm ninyo well I mean every time people don't agree with the results they call us false Asia right the worst is when they tell me they text me and some are threatening some are saying that you know you've gotten rich I'm not a public official but I'm willing to wave my bank secrecy privacy my right to bank secrecy but it's bad because it basically says that people are now distrusting even the results that are done by repeatable organizations I'm not blaming anyone but this is something that has become it's an indication to me of how polarized our society has become and that's the most lamentable thing that I have observed over the last few years and I hope it doesn't continue beyond 2022 Exeter hope there's another question considering that legitimate surveys can take months to formulate a substantial result will it still be relevant when it's released since the socio-political context is changing faster than how a survey result can be the least anonymous attendee Dr. Dela what's your take on that nabangit nga kanina that survey is actually a snapshot of the sentiment of the voters at a particular point in time and of course it needs to be transparent ang ating mga surveys naman nilalagay when the survey was taken where it was taken so it's really important but sa ating mga social science na mga researchers it can actually be valid but yung may yung we express our limitations so for example yung may mga particular ng mga attitudes and behavior na angko pa rin doon sa panahong iyon but I think when it comes to electoral polls yung nga I think the context and yung very fast yung developments especially the drama around our political circus that really affects the tumble the rough and tumble of yung political opinion polling so I think we just need to really understand yung limitations ng electoral polling every time that word I hear that word yung political circus nisan masakitin sa loob natin na every time na merong electionan lang Dr. Day na circus ang tawag di ba fiesta masaya parang hindi mo alam kung mga tao bobo to ba talaga ng matina o hindi eback anyway that's another story here is another question probably anyone from the panel kaan what is a protocol or code of conduct for politicians when they ask a company to do a survey what if the survey is not preferable to them very interesting question sino po ang sasagot dito I can answer it if it's something sure yeah if it's available to them if it's a commission survey then they would have to take the results as is and in instances where we've done commission surveys in the past when I myself and the one presenting it to a group whether it's the politician himself or a group supporting the politician they basically accept the results I don't think they would just be fooling themselves na commission sino survey that's hindi na papanimolahan sinayang lang nila yung survey Agree ito I know that this is going to be for Dr. Chan how do you determine a sample size that is representative of the entire nation how do you select the response binangita nito ni doctor sabi ko is a long course it's going to be a course itong an ginagawa natin just a crash course crash course si Dr. Chan si Dr. Chan pero si Dr. Chan please answer Sige, medyo na medyo napakatechnikal kung pagpuputat ayos sa detail sabi nga namin sa Congress it takes one semester actually or half a semester to teach sampling pero anong again babalikan kong basic ingredients conceptually representative sample would mean adiquity size randomly drawn there's a formula for computing your adiquity size you can even google it ko anong formula na yun at po e din yung gamitin sa sarili yung research yung random midron namin nakita din kasi o kaninang sa mga questions na pano nare-represent yung iba't ibang segments or sectors ng society sa pagsasample in other words pano natin mas mo homogenize attempts to homogenization in terms of gender in terms of social economic class in terms of age ninsan kasi we also stratify depending on the percentage of the population for example the same percentage would also be reflected dun sa ating sampling or in some instances meron tayong tinatawag na waiting waits we actually compute waits and plug waits or statistical waits so again these are all technical aspects of sampling but simply po basic ingredients adiquity size randomly drawn yeah thanks Dr. Chendas from Daniel Agustin sabi ko san Daniel Agustin na di ba okay balik dun tayo naman sa youtube natin thanks to UTV UP for posting this and ito ang tanong interesting to gusto ko din to e have you determined if surveys or the results have ever been used to intimidate people especially in the Philippines if so how di ba interesting question na no pero bang ganon Dr. Deila Dr. Deila Dr. Holmes o when benong kabang nasagap na ganito na ginamit ang survey to intimidate people magagamit lang yun to intimidate people if you violate the rule of anonymity because there's a rule of anonymity with regard to research di ba this is one of the ethical considerations even I I do not know who we surveyed I will not know the name the address the contact details because I'm not the one who interviewed the only one who would know the name contact details of the respondents I don't want to did the interview okay so pag hindi anonymous at nalaman nung let's say isang entity who has the capacity to intimidate yung mapala na yun then they will intimidate those individuals if you don't violate that rule that basic principle in socials in research which is anonymity especially when with human subjects then you are not contributing to anything that would result to intimidation and that's very important and I think that's one thing that really we should safeguard maaling nangyariyan siguro kumim nangyariyan ganyan sa isang lugar na parang maliit lang at nagagawa ka na survey pero patan ang feeling kong gumagawa na survey niya ang maapuliti ko na it's not anymore a social science or a private organization na ko let's be worry of that Doctor Holmes isa sa mga tipyan na kailangan natin talagang isipin lagi okay here's another interesting question called from our YouTube post could you explain what you've found regarding Filipino psychology behind voting versus that of other societies have you determined if Filipinos tend to vote for candidates based on practicality idealism anybody can you weigh in on that Doctor Dela based on practicality or idealism actually with respect to what we are doing at bosses Filipinas that's what we intend to do is to actually probe ang attitudes nila behavior what goes behind ang kadilang voting preferences and hopefully we find that out and because ang daming ang explanations or factors that could affect voting preferences isa na po yun yung sinagawa namin yung fake news maybe it will have an impact and that's one of the things also that's being studied by Doctor Cheng so maybe in due course we'd be able to actually present our research on that Okay would your permission again I off ko lang yung video kasi lalapit ko yung muka ko sas clean din magbaba sa ako ng questions hindi ko ganoong mabasa pag medyo malay Okay, off ko lang temporarily with your permission and the permission from the organizer ito ang question natin puro to ane ang yung most attendee ayaw nilang magpakilala pero that's okay are there ito very interesting question are there best practices globally with respect to the duration of political surveys one month ba three months yung on ko li ang video ko yun okay, si nung gusto nung sumagot best practices Chen with your studies abroad and conducting research and academic surveys well merong bang best practices na sagap kasi ibang bansa nang well baka pwede ko siya baka pwede ko siya ang sagotin in terms of restrictions kasi in other countries may mga restrictions kung kailan nila pwede yung releasing result hanggang kailan nila pwede pre-election surveys at hanggang kailan lang din pwede yung release ang result ng pre-election surveys for example in some European countries may embargo period nila na 30 days 15 days before the election bawal na na mag-release ng election results so may ganoon depending on on the regulations ng country merong di nang ibang bansa ang sabi nila yung exit polls for example kasi hindi pwede yung release ang result na exit polls hanggang hindi na tatapos yung election so may period na when you withhold nila nila yung result kasi baka mga may influence ang voters or yung mga may demobilize yung mga ibang bobotos na ay nanalanan naman yung kandidat kung hindi nakuld bobotos so may restrictions sa ibang bansa kung hanggang kailan pwede yung conduct or hanggang kailan or kailan pwede yung release ang result ng pre-elections and exit polls mga babasa ulit ako teka lang and move my face towards the screen temporarily off my video ito mapuput on the spot kayo nito is from a good friend Julie Alipala from Zambuanga and also well a PDI correspondent as well ito na police 2022 elections may mga contract and service ba na paid by by politicians sino dong mga ito patay meron baka yung alam o ayun yung tita Julie naman pero very interesting din ako meron meron tayong alam kung may ganun ba Doctor Holmes if and when alam natin ang credibility as you said kanina pwede ba natin i call out we call out the one who paid it or we call out the surveying firm medyo na wala Ariel yung some part can you repeat the question again okay kanina kasi ito sabi ng ating PDI journalist Zambuanga City sino ba daw kung meron tayong alam teka lang ha okay natabunan teka lang teka lang Doctor Holmes kung sino ba daw yung ba may alam ba daw tayo kayo I see the question of Julie una in commission service as I mentioned we're burned by an embargo it's a contract and there's confidentiality that is secured between us and the commissioning entity so it's like a non-disclosure agreement the embargo is only for a limited period it's for one year so in that regard I cannot answer Julie's question categorically but whether there is of course there has there have been and there will be so commission surveys because that's one thing that has been done now when a part of a commission survey is released to media the first thing that media members of media do is that they communicate to us and check with us whether it's our survey and if it is our survey are confirmed that it is a commission survey so if it is not our survey I will tell them it is not our commission survey the problem however is that there is that confidentiality agreement that we're bound to that's part of the contract so there are certain parts of the survey that may be released but we are not in any way allowed to release the other parts of that particular survey Weng, thanks Dr. Holmes Weng, sa tinagal pagal mo sa inducer is there actually a website or a list of credible and peer-reviewed surveys from anonymous attendee that can be used and utilized to educate they should look into S sorry Ariel, medyo nawa wala kawala so ano li ang question Is there a website that shows a list of credible and peer-reviewed surveys that can be used and utilized to educate other people what surveys they should look into Sa Pilipinas wala akong alam actually but in other countries you have institutes like pointer institute Columbia University list nung mga survey organizations that are deemed to be credible. Okay. Another anonymous attendee question from him or her, is there a code of ethics for survey firms or organizations? It seems like they are being used and paid by politicians. Isn't that unethical? Dr. Hongs? There is a code of ethics of organizations that we belong to, the Philippine Social Science Council is a code of ethics, the World Association of Public Opinion Research is a code of ethics. Is it unethical if you're paid by a political group? The answer to that question is that as long as you do not in any way get influenced in terms of both the design of the research and are not by that particular group, because it reminds us of, for example, the research that we're done to establish whether tobacco is bad for health. And we know that those were controversial research when it's paid for by tobacco corporation. The conclusion is that no, cigarette used tobacco use is not bad for research. It's the same thing with regard to a survey. If it's paid by a political group, it doesn't necessarily mean it's unethical. It would be unethical if you design a survey according to what the research that political group wants you to produce. That's the one that is unethical. Being funded by an external party in any research is not in any way a ground to say that the researcher is doing something unethical except if that external party is a criminal organization. Okay, from Rex Pedrigala, how do I know if the political survey is legit or fake? Kaniyat, tinanong ko din niya early on in the program, di ba? Remember Dr. Dainla? Papano, what are the red flags, for example? I think unan natin titin nang talaga yung source no? And as mentioned already, sino ba yung papasurvey niyon at sino yung mga people behind those survey outfits or firms, so it's really very important. Yun yung talagang red flag. It doesn't say ano yung source at sino yung people behind those survey outfits, then it should be a red flag already. Ayun, let's take note of that. Ito, I'm pretty sure it's going to be for Dr. Chen. How do you properly identify the demographic profile of your samples to match with the policies being raised by the candidates? Kasi daw, di ba, nakakapoblerma din tayo dahil misan yung mga sumasagot ng survey, hindi naman nila concern niyon. Yun ang sabi sa tanong, Dr. Chen. Ang tanong kasi, sino ba yung target population yung survey, siyong target group? And as much as possible, we get random sample of the members of the target population. For some survey design or sampling design, kumukua ka ng percentage ng population to represent yung exact subgroupings doon sa target population mo. Or you apply yung statistical weights kong halibaw mahirapan ng kumuhangan ng exactly the same percentage in the population. So ito yung mga again na sa sampling design, kung pa ano mga ba ia-attempt to be representative of your target population. But you have to be able to define your target population. Okay, very interesting question from another interesting question from Christine Gonzales based on previous surveys. If you look at past surveys, past election, how does he predict an election outcome? With social media technology, it's easier to conduct surveys. Ket sino sino na nang pwede mag-survey. Who is going to answer? Anybody from the panel? Well, maybe I'll just put in a short response. Surveys that are far from elections are far from predictive. The most predictive, the only predictive survey for me is an exit poll. A survey closer to the elections might come close to the election result. But if you wish to predict really, it's an exit poll. Because that an exit poll, basically you talk to people who have voted. If you do it systematically, you gather a sufficient number of respondents, then you can actually make a poll as to who would win in that election. But other surveys pointed out by Wen, Dr. Chen are snapshots. They captured this position earlier. You were asking about Filipinos. What we know about Filipinos is that we're still dispositional voters. It means we're like babagong ating dispositions. We're not as intentional because one, our political parties are just pretty weak. Second, our electoral system is indeed more candidate-oriented. The information that we know about candidates would be quite diverse. Some candidates we know not because of who they are as politicians, but because of what they did in the showbiz industry. So the amount of information that you have about candidates, what issue they have, would be also quite limited. Okay. I'm just going to again temporarily turn off my video to move my face closer to the skin to read one interesting question. From an anonymous attendee, what do you think is the future of survey firms if people rely mostly in need of media outlets survey with the use of emoticons and so on? Nako, siyempre hindi naman wawalan ng trabaho yung mga survey firms. Hindi, pero yes, please. Wen, baka naman wawalan do yung trabaho yung mga wala ng survey firms kasi anong papapol nagpapasurvey mga media outlets na or social media, di ba? As we said, na may science yung survey, so you still need groups na like yung groupon nila Dr. Holmes na. Hindi sila mga wala ng trabaho kasi hindi lang sila para sa election. Maraming gamit yung survey. So at sa tingin ko that's part of the survey literacy that we would like to advance kasi dito mas mayintindihan ang mga tao para sa yung surveys. Hindi lang siya para sa election kasi ngayon para ang tingin sa surveys ano lang siya, for election purposes para lang sa mga politico. Hindi siya para sa gano. Maraming kang pwede matutunan sa survey at napakahalaga niya. Lalo na if it's done scientifically kasi talagang kaya niyang ilabas ko ano yung salo binang mga tao and to highlight the issues that people would like to talk about. Okay, all right. Here's from Elmer James Bandol, state from Legas City, our colleague there. Paano mabuhay o kumita ang isang survey firm kung ang isang groupo o entity ay interesado ng serviso? May contract ba? Ano ang salient points ng contract? Dr. Holmes. Thank you. May love you maha tanang. Eto pa pa na nababuhay in survey firms? We basically earn from subscriptions and I've mentioned this in many pola. We provide services to various groups not only and as Wayne pointed out, we're not just here during elections. We've been in existence for 22 years. We've done both quantitative and qualitative research. There are contracts that govern our researchers, especially kong commission siya. That contract secures the integrity of the research. As researchers, we have full control on the research process, but there is an embargo. There's a non-disclosure agreement. And then if there are disputes, of course, there's also that legal part where disputes should be settled in a court in Gesu City since our office is located in Gesu City. So that's how we earn. We basically earn by way of subscriptions and by way of commission surveys. And the commission surveys that we've done have been funded by organizations, private businesses, and they're not just about politics. We've done research on disaster management. We've done research on fighting tobacco use, et cetera, et cetera. So except that, of course, the one that becomes a bit more focused right now would be the pre-election survey. Alon, let's go to another question from YouTube. How can we dispute the idea that survey or poll bodies are bayaran or results can be manipulated in favor of a certain person? Can surveys be manipulated? How to identify if a conducted survey is manipulated? Dr. Chen, Dr. Holmes, want to raise a point first. Dr. Chen can go ahead first. Okay. Dr. Chen, please. Dr. Imay or Wang can come to that question. Sure. Again, I think kaming lahat nito na social science researchers, we do our very best to protect the integrity of social science research. So we strictly follow the protocols kasi ang ambassadors ng field namin, and ayun namin nung create ng impression na hindi sakto ang maginagawa namin. Kasi isang bahid lang na masabi na ay pangit yung result na yun, hindi credible na result na yun para it affects yung yung kabuan ng ginagawa namin. So we really try our very best to follow strictly the protocols for conducting valid and reliable survey. But it can't be manipulated. Yes, kung ikikaw talaga ay wala sa yung ethics na yun. Wala kasi nusun na na protocols, wala kasi nusun na na ethics, pwede yung mamanipilit ang survey. In fact, in other countries, this has been done. If you google search ko ano yung push polling na pinatawag na may phenomenon of push polling, I think, sa US before. So yun, pwede talagang mamanipilit yung akala mo survey, pero hindi pala it's really to push a certain agenda or a certain propaganda. Tapos naboodul ka, hindi pala siya toong survey. So pwede kasi yung gamitin talaga, itong tool na to. But then again, yung mga legitimate sources, again, kagayang nasinabi ang Dr. Imelda, sino kanino ba nanggaling yung survey na yun? Sino bang source ng survey na yun? Kasi kung legitimate source yun, we will do our very best to protect the integrity of social science research. Ayun. Okay, we only have a time left for one last question. So probably there's going to be the fast round already for everyone on the panel. I'll give you time to think about this while I go through the evaluation. Paul, do you think that the political surveys inform us about public opinion or do political surveys form or prime public opinion? Iba yun yung team ng ating webinar nyan, pero bago nyo sa gutin yan. Isip-pisi, rest mo na kainang konte. Okay, ito na. We'll be asking to give you parting words na ninyon later on. We will give you a moment to think about that as we flash on our Zoom panel, the evaluation poll please. Okay, to our Zoom attendees, please take this moment to answer a quick poll of just five questions. To show our panel our great appreciation because they have graciously taken time from their hectic schedules to join us today. All right, we'll leave it open so you can continue keying your answers as we proceed with our program. Okay, parting shots nyo sa huling kanong natin. Ito, tingnan natin ano. Okay. Sige, Dr. Wang Tuloy sabi kasi ni Dr. Dane lang. Dr. Wang, your final words are parting shots on that question full circle tayo. I think surveys can do both. They do both. They, not mutually exclusive yung parts ng tanong mo. So surveys are barometer of sentiments of the people at that particular period when the survey was conducted. And this is necessary for mino kasi it's giving voice to people's sentiments. But however, surveys can also be used to prime public opinion. Yung binangit kanina yung possible bandwagon effect. Kaya rin naman mahalaga that media ay tama yung pag-report ng kompleto and accurate the way they report surveys. At kaya rin mahalaga yung survey literacy para sa public. At kaya rin mahalaga yung transparency on the part of survey groups. Ayun, thanks Wang. Dr. Holmes, your turn for the final question. Yes please. Pwedeo nung sagutin, Wang. Palagay ko, kasi lahat ang impolmation may influence yan sa ating pananawin. Baging ang impolmation na ito ganig sa media o itala ng survey, naka-influential yan sa ating perspective. Ang mahalaga ay ito ay malaman natin kung ang impolmation na yan ay may pinangpapataya. Ay balid, dahil kung ang impolmation na nakukawa natin ay parang kwentong kali, ang survey ay ginawas pag magitan ng pangpili lang kung sinundapat ko sapin o yung tinatawag na may self-selection bias, matatulad ng ma-internet survey. Nakikilaw ko yan ay yung gusto makilaho. Dapat alami natin kung anggang saan punto, representante ang survey. At doon natin meding pwedeo, pwedeng sukatin kung dapat natin panimalaan. Ayun, thanks Dr. Holmes. Dr. Gaila, please. Tulad na rin ang mga nabong, get-sikuro one of the important things that we also forget in electoral polls is that it should actually create a space for, say, a meaningful conversation, na nakakalimutan na. So it's not just about determining the winners and such strict elections as a fair game or a horse race. But it's also very important to inform the electorate to be transparent, but also to appraise the limitations of our surveys. And in terms of really dealing with trust, we need to also be open as academics, as pollsters. We need to really engage with the public. Ayun. And last but not least, Dr. Chen. Okay. Surveys are tools for sense-making. Surveys make sense through numbers. Surveys don't have to be an exclusivist form of sense-making that only those who understand numbers can make sense of survey results. Polling groups, the media, the academe, civil society orgs should help us make sense of numbers. And we should also have basic literacy on how to read survey results. While we should consume valid and reliable survey results, this should not be the sole basis for our voting behavior. I think there is a need to strengthen our agency as voters, through voter education, through voter literacy programs. There's a need to emphasize on our civic duty to vote, to strengthen our sense of political efficacy, and to inculcate yung value ng vote natin and that we should vote based on our values, based on the principles and aspirations that we hold here. Thank you. Thank you very much, Aura. Speakers. Maraming salamat po for your time, experts, and all of you are very busy, pero pinahalaga nyo itong webinar na ito para sa publico. Okay. Tinyan na natin yung resultan ng evaluation nyo. Siyempre, nila na audience natin sa inyo. As expected, antaas ng marksin nyo. Hi, marks kayo lahat. So ilan, 91% strongly agree that you have demonstrated through thorough knowledge of the topic. Yay. And the panelists also said that they strongly agree that well-prepared kayo, mga panalays ayon. Maraming salamat bolisa inyo. Sana po ay maimbitangan pa namin kaya sa susunod ng mga webinars, nilin ng PCS pero na iba pang organization, but please don't think yet. As mentioned earlier, we are now launching our post test. Tingnan po natin kong natuto or nag-increase ba yung knowledge ng ating mga audience, members of the audience in understanding acquired, knowledge and understanding acquired from this webinar. Let's see. Wait, wait. Okay. Ayon. Nagbago ba? Kanina, if you look back ko anong unang result, partial result at saka ngayon, yan po ang, o yan din po yung result sa pangalawang tanong, yan yan po ang post test natin. Okay. We will keep the post test open in the background as we proceed with our program. Now it's my testing pleasure to introduce to you the Dean of the College of Communication at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines a director of the Philippines Communication Society. My dear friend as well, please welcome Dr. Hamadi Mora. Good morning. I'll give the floor to you, Dr. Mora, for your synthesis and closing remarks. Okay. Good afternoon, Ayel. Thank you for the introduction. Okay. Can you see me? Can we see you? Wait. No, we're hearing you but we cannot see you. At least sa end ko, I cannot. Dr. Mora. Okay. Can you hear me now? Can you see me? Yeah. Good. Good. How are you? Yeah, I'm fine. Medyo kong ting Wi-Fi intermittent issue lang ako. Yeah, I know. Yes. Okay. So, I listen to the entire discourse. Our webinar forum for today has proven to be very interesting, intellectually stimulating, and very useful. Thanks to the insights and learnings shared by our guest speakers. So first and foremost, you know, Ayel, the following terms and all came out during the roundtable discussion. And these are much appreciated, such as survey literacy, fake polls. You know, we also heard about fly by night pollsters, weaponization of surveys, campaign strategy utilization of electoral polls, politicization of surveys, and downing terms and more. But then again, to summarize the discussion, I would like to go first with Dr. Maria Roselsan Pasqual. She explained to us the purpose of periodic surveys, how they are used reflectively to direct and redirect the candidates' campaign strategies, and not only for forecasting. She also expounded on the issues of validity and reliability of the research and how these variables are lifted, and if the survey instruments are understood by the respondents. She also explained the process of coming up with a representative sample and the relative tolerable margin of error. So we thank Dr. San Pasqual for lecturing to us about survey research. We've learned much from you, ma'am. Now with, in the case of Dr. Imelda Danila, she shared about their social sciences survey researches also, and the conduct of their researches, and also how electoral polling are implicated in such science researches, and the power play that is relative to electoral polling with regard to the current political circles. You know, I really like this term political circles. She also attested to the existence of fly-by-night pollsters and even fake polls that are now very rampant and common in social media platforms. Thank you, ma'am Danila. And then with Dr. Ronald Holmes, he tackled the importance of methodologies, how they are defined and disseminated to the public. He also shared incidents of fake surveys with politicians behind. He explained how commissioned surveys are done and how research firms maintain their independence, which are all stipulated in a contract. In the case of Pulse Asia, thank you for sharing, Dr. Holmes. He said that they clarify first the objectives of the commissioning party before they enter into a contract. In due time, they release the results whether it is favorable or not to the commissioning party. On the part of ma'am Rowena Paraan, she stressed the importance of survey literacy and how the survey process should be well understood by the media, the journalists, and also how it should be well explained to the public. Ma'am Wang shared about their roundtable discussions with survey experts where questions of journalists and editors were addressed. And she also gave emphasis to the importance of video explainers, video articles, and such so that the public would understand the survey process. Okay, so the queers asked during the Q&A portion of our webinar today are all very good. In fact, as expected, our speakers could only answer them by the headlines because our webinar time is not enough for our speakers to answer comprehensively. So to wrap up the forum, all of our participants, I'm sure, are panel speakers also and even us organizers would agree that there was much learning in today's discourse. And how we wish, Ariel, that there would be part two to this topic exploring various aspects of survey literacy, particularly dealing with electoral polls. But, you know, everything has needs to come to an end and we don't have any more time, so we would like to thank our panel speakers for saying yes to our invitation. And we strongly encourage our participants to be more discerning, use everything that you learned today as we move forward to our nearing national elections. Okay, that would be all. Back to you, Ariel. Thank you, Dr. Mona, for the concise and on-point synthesis. One last time, let's look at the final result of our post-test kumeno bang disincrease in knowledge and understanding of the issues based on our post-test result. Sa first question, ito pa rin na malabasano. All right, next please. May napupuso ang pandida. Nag-increase ang o-o, no? Slightly. Kani na 45-46. Ayon. Okay. All right. Napaka halagang kwentuhan natin. Tamingan nila, binabasa ko yung comments nila dito sa chatroom. I hope they're thanking everyone, the panelists, really for a superior take on the issues at sana do meron pang kasunod next time. Okay, as mentioned, the webinar is part of a series of the National Forum on Communication and Democracy Philippine Election 2022. PCS will be having a webinar every second Wednesday of the month until May 2022. So please mark your calendar and also check the FB page of PCS, also a website for further announcements. Next month, please take note, we'll be featuring over-entertained, under-informed, are we politically literate with no less than Cara David as her host and moderator. So please stay tuned for updates in the PCS website or Facebook page, as I said. Ladies and gentlemen, this formally closes the fifth National Forum on Communication and Democracy Philippine Elections 2022. We look forward to your company again every second Wednesday of the month. This is Ariel Cebelina from the Philippine Press Institute. On behalf of the Philippines Communication Society, let us strengthen our country's democratic foundations through communication. Enjoy the rest of the week, everyone, and keep safe always. Thank you very much, crew. Till next time.