 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccesotrader.com. Nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel, welcome aboard guys. Thank you very much for spending a couple of moments with us. Only thing we ask, take a moment, like the video, share, subscribe, all the good stuff. Come on this journey with us on a day to day based on our technical analysis, based on data. So, if you watched the video last night, you kind of knew where I was, you know, my thinking was, I thought we were going to have pretty much a res day today on a lot of mega cap technology names. If you looked at yesterday's clothes, it was a red clothes, inverted hammer, a little bit of a baby range, and basically just said, hey, stock just needed a day of breath. Take a day of breath, take a relaxation, had an incredible run. It doesn't mean the market's going to go down, it just means that sometimes you need a breath to go on further. And today played out pretty much like we talked about. Like I said in the last night's video, I didn't see a lot of value in the mega cap technology space today. I thought this was going to be kind of a distribution day. That's kind of exactly the way it turned out. If you look at the majority of names, you know, they're up a dollar, down a dollar, nothing, nothing, nothing crazy. And that was the whole point. No one uses good news, right? The last thing the bullish case wanted to see was an aggressive poll today. Take down two, three days worth of buying and, you know, let the smoke settle for tomorrow. That didn't happen. That's a good thing. You know, the technology space was kicked off today with earnings. You know, let's talk about the latter first, which is Texas Instruments. So Texas Instruments in the semiconductor space, if you guys are old enough to remember, Texas Instruments used to make calculators, right? That's that was kind of their big deal. That was their big thing years and years ago. As you can see here, not a great quarter, right? Not a great quarter at all, light on a lot of areas. And you would think because of the huge run up on the semiconductor space, you would think these stocks after hours would be absolutely destroyed. Because if you look at Texas Instruments right now after hours, it's down about six and a half points, about four percent. And you would think NVIDIA, AMD, SMCI would all be getting killed. No, not at all. Absolutely not at all. If you look at, for example, NVIDIA, NVIDIA is pretty much flat. You know, it's pretty much flat on the close with down 20 cents, right? Down 20 cents, AMD after the close is what? Down 20 cents. So you can see here that the semiconductors are holding very, very strong despite the bad quarter on Texas Instruments. And that's a great sign of the strength of the demonstrating strength in the entire mega cab space. On the flip side, we talked about Netflix last night. And I really believed going into this quarter. Again, there wasn't a lot of excitement, right? There wasn't a lot of excitement. There wasn't a lot of hoopla going on in the stock. And when you have a really aggressive burn, barn burner type of market, any good news, literally any good news will light the flame in these stocks. And look at, you know, look at Netflix after the close. Netflix is up about seven percent. Yeah, about seven percent. It's up 35 bucks at the time I'm recording this video right now. It's about four thirty five on the eastern time. You guys should probably get the video around six thirty seven o'clock unless they they really bomb on the conference call. That's a big move here. I mean, really, really big move. The subscriber numbers was great. A lot of that was due to the part that the whole password sharing was kind of, you know, it was kind of a thing in the past. So good quarter on Netflix. Here's the craziest part about it is I thought everything would be ripping on the Netflix earnings and nothing really is. So it's a kind of hot opening going into tomorrow's session. Nothing's going down, which is bullish and nothing's really going up after hours, which is kind of peculiar considering the powerful move on Netflix. Have fast forward to tomorrow, right? Number one, we're getting a lot of really good setups going into tomorrow. You have names in the in the cloud space like snow breaking out. I actually broke out today. I'll show you guys the pivots, only a couple of pivots today, right? Snow is ready to break out. It's a big, big, broad channel. Today, this is the highest close in this whole formation. It got above the December highs, and this is the highest close above the Bollinger Band, right? If you look at Microsoft, Microsoft held very, very well as well. OK, any single pullback into the rising five day support is bullish if the bulls defend. That's exactly what Microsoft has been has been doing here, right? Riding the five day moving average. We saw a lot of 400 weeklies coming in. Amazon looks ready. OK, I know they report next week, but this thing looks ready. This thing has been consolidating now for a couple of weeks. If you guys remember a couple of weeks ago, we had this really great breakout on Amazon from the 52 level touched right into supply in the 57. This thing is like a day or two away from really busting out. This is something that if you trade the technology space, you should really be aware of this is one of the one of the beautiful charts left that is not overextended, has not really had that mega run like a name like Apple, right? And Apple broke out three days ago again above the 50 day moving average is bullish. Apple broke out above the 50 day. It's having a really, really nice run. We saw a whole bunch of 97 fifties coming in. We saw a whole bunch of 200 weeklies coming in. So again, further stretching the breakout of the stock as well. And look at the video. This is the champ. Like this is a champ of all champs now. Not only is the stock up literally, it's up 200 points in the last few weeks. The damn thing does not want to come in even on a res day today. It had an opportunity to really get hit today when it lost the previous day's range and it didn't quite hit the five day moving average. But that shows you how strong it is. And now it actually closed the highest close in this whole formation as well. We did see some 615, 620 weeklies as well. So the way they're betting the stock, despite the 200 point rally, so far, in the last three weeks, there really is no stopping. It's almost like they removed the brakes from this from this vehicle. Because again, there's a lot of really aggressive bets. AMD continues to shine as well. Same type of setup, same type of scenario that with Microsoft, that with Nvidia, it's just hugging. It's just hugging the five day every single time it comes down to the five day. It gets it gets defended. The key is with these stocks and eventually they all will get pulled. It's just it's just common sense. It's just gravity. But eventually, if the five day gets lost, this is not just a specifically for AMD. It could be for Microsoft. It could be for Nvidia. It could be for anything going down the road, right? Whether it's tomorrow, be aware of the five day, because if the stocks start losing two or three days ranges and they start losing the five day moving average, you could have a nice backside trade for one day. We've seen in the most aggressible markets that if the five day gets pulled, we've seen days that one candle wipes out two, three, sometimes four days all worth of buying. So it's always something that's in the back of my mind. So again, these five day holds eventually will become a massive support. And if they do get violated again, it's not necessarily for tomorrow, but if they do get violated, that's when you backside trade starts. Let's talk about the one that everybody wants to talk about for tomorrow. Your friend, my friend, everybody's friend, right? Elon Musk, greatest stock of all. So for weeks and weeks and weeks now, we've seen it's not really, you know, it's not really a secret, right? For weeks, we've been seeing a lot of weakness in the stock. It failed to break out. It failed to hold the 50 day. It failed to hold the 200 day pretty much. We've been short-sighted on the stock every single day. Yesterday was the only day I got long. We got long. We took advantage of the previous day's range. We caught the move for like three points. Today, it did exactly what it did yesterday. And today, at the open, just like it did on yesterday at the open, it got rejected into this declining supply. Everybody sees, we actually put short on this decline, which turned into a really, really good day. But, you know, I wasn't really expecting to trade a lot of beta names today because everything was just kind of stuck in a resting position. But this thing did exactly the same thing it did yesterday. It got rejected off the top of supply and then basically faded the rest of the day. Here is kind of where you start putting on your thinking cap and maybe start putting on your speculation cap again. If you guys remember yesterday, we talked about there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm for the Netflix quarter. I have to say, there's no enthusiasm whatsoever on the Tesla quarter going into tomorrow, right? You have absolutely naysayers thinking the stock will be at 190, 180, 175, 150, and maybe it will, right? We don't know. OK, speculation into earnings is your guess is as good as mine. Again, that's the exclusive social media answer you guys are going to get. You don't get this type of information anywhere. But all jokes aside, nobody knows what's going to happen on earnings, right? If you look at the bare bones of what's going on, and this is what we talk about data, data, data, again, we've not seen any put buying or any significant pump buy. We saw a little bit of 200 puts come in towards the afternoon when the stock was about to go red and actually did go red. It was a seven point also, excuse me, almost a nine point reversal off the highs. But we haven't really seen an abundance of institutional money flow coming in on the put side. Does that mean anything? It means absolutely nothing. The price cuts, right? The price cuts in different models, that's going to play a part of it. The out of the money call buying that we saw a couple of weeks ago, that's going to play a lot of buying coming to come into play. But the key is for Tesla and not to compare it to Netflix, but the key going into Tesla, in my opinion, for tomorrow is just don't do anything or say anything stupid, right? Everybody knows this price cuts. Everybody knows you have a little bit of the inventory. Everybody knows the Elon Musk needs to acquire 25 percent or else he's going to go play in the AI space full time, according to him. OK, the key with Tesla in this rabid bull market is don't say or do anything stupid. Matter of fact, Elon, don't say a word on the conference call. Whatever the headline is, whatever the earnings are, that's it. Ride a die with it, right? Fall in the sword, zip it, shut it, zip it and see what happens. Because if you do zip it and shut it, well, eventually the people who have no more ammunition to sell again, because we keep this in mind, the stock has sold from 265 all the way down to 207 in the last month. It's a pretty heavy decline. So 14, 14 percent plus or 14 percent minus performance for 2024. The key is the bulls want to see if the bad news is baked in, right? That's kind of like the low hanging for right now, because if they don't say anything stupid, yeah, they might rally the stock. The flip side is if they do say something stupid and they give a really bad forecast, then we have room all the way down to here, which is 194, which is the October 30 lows. Again, I am no handicapper. I'm not smart enough to predict what happens. I think anybody who's trying to predict what's going to happen, you might as well tell me the score of the Super Bowl before even tell me who's even going to be in the Super Bowl, right? Just tell me the score. That's what trading into earnings is. It's a guess. So I know you want to start sound smart on social media and God forbid anybody thinks you don't know what you're talking about. But earnings just like betting a sporting event is it's either going to happen or it's not. So before you start this incredible battle with some strangers on social media, what happens with Tesla is going to beat, what happens with Tesla is going to meet and all that good stuff. Just remember, nobody knows anything. Nobody has a clue. You could have the earnings report right in your hands. And you could still mess up the trade because the price action might not agree with the earnings call. And this is why earnings are a complete crap shoot. So going into tomorrow, look, I really like certain setups. Amazon, I really like. We talked about Amazon a couple of minutes ago. Amazon, I'm watching for the top of the range here. Snow is another name that looks really, really good. Nice looking chart there as well. Let me give you guys a couple of more names to watch for tomorrow. And, you know, Microsoft looks decent. I would like to see one sell off if there's weakness on Nvidia. I'd like to see if we could get a remount, basically a bounce play off the rising support, because if you notice here, every single time it's hit the orange line, it bounced, orange line, bounce, orange line, bounce, orange line, bounce, orange line, bounce. It didn't quite hit it today. So if there's any weakness tomorrow on Texas Instruments earnings, let's see if we could catch a remount buy on Nvidia. Other than that, that's it. You know, other than that, that's it. Again, I think the longer the technology space kind of just waits it out a little bit, gets a breath, gets its feet set underneath them, the higher probability that we will continue this rally in the next couple of days. But guys, always keep this in mind. Be prepared on both sides, because eventually if the market does get pulled and you have a little bit of a buying strike, those five day plays that we just talked about that held for the last couple of days. If they lose them, it will be an aggressive engulfing candle. Again, you could go through your history books, go through your charts. You'll see no matter how aggressive a bull market is, it never it's going to go straight up in those days when they lose the five minute, the five day, that's where you can get an aggressive pull on a backside play. So tomorrow, again, pretty much is what it is. Again, not a lot today, really not a lot today. As you can see, there was not a lot of beta names today. SRPT didn't confirm, EYPT didn't confirm, Disney gap into the area went straight down, CVNA didn't confirm, Micron didn't confirm, AMD I was watching for the five day break, it didn't confirm. So you're like, what the hell happened today? Well, that's the whole point, beta wasn't doing anything. We caught a great, great rejection play on Tesla. This little sucker, one nuts. Remember we were talking about D-Wack yesterday? This is the Trump stock, 50-20 needs to build. That's the one one nuts. Again, it's not really my thing. I only traded today. I traded some Tesla today, which was really good. And I traded out a little scalp on the video to the downside. But D-Wack, right? We talked about this yesterday, 50-20 needs to build. The damn thing nearly went to 60. Congratulations, if you did play this thing. And snow today broke out as well. 203 needs to build. Snow went from 203 to 206. I like snow, if it could confirm today's channels going into tomorrow. So that's it, the stage is set. The outfits have been picked out. The star has been identified in Elon Musk. Tomorrow is a big day for Tesla, for the rest of the speculation market. And as we continue with the earning season, we'll see how well the bulls can continue to brush off any type of bad news to continue this magnificent rally from 2003, 2023. Guys, God bless. Have a great night, everybody, and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.