 The World Bank has attributed 50% decline in economic activities to terrorism and kidnappings in the northeast. Co-author of World Bank report Marco Hernandez disclosed that economic activities in the Boronu, Adamawa and Yorba Estates however declined from 10 to 14% between 2009 and 2013. According to the Economist, economic activities in the Lake Chad region further declined by 50% since 2018. He also added that issues related to climate change were also responsible for further decline in the activities in the agricultural sector of the economy. On how insurgency affects border countries, he said, Boko Haram has also affected neighboring countries of Niger, Chad and Cameroon, apart from where the actual attacks take place. While joining us to discuss this is Peter Igbedian, he is a security expert and Andy at Potivei is a public affairs analyst. Thank you very much gentlemen for joining us. Thank you so much for having me, Mary, and good evening. I'm going to start with you, Andy. Thank you for joining us. Peter, thank you for joining us. Andy, it's very interesting that when we talk about terrorism and we can tie to economic activities and how people are unable to do business because a place is not safe. But in the Nigerian context, it's a multifaceted problem. For example, I remember two, three years ago where women who produced Gary in let's say a Czech community were unable to bring it to Potahakot because gunmen were cultists were killing them on their farmland and burying them alive. And so of course, the cost of Gary skyrocketed in Potahakot. And we're also having the same issues as to economic activities around the areas where these killings or kidnappings are happening. But let's go to the bottom of all of this. Why do we think that, aside from Boko Haram, insecurity and terrorism has grown so much in the country that we're where we are today. OK, so first of all, at the root of every conflict is resource mobilization and allocation. At the root of every conflict, whether the conflict is conflict that is within the home, whether the conflict is conflict within the community, within the country, it's about resource mobilization and allocation. So what they have said at the World Bank is not far from the truth. Yes, there would be other dimensions, other colorations to why you have conflict. Some we can quickly say can be ideological. Yeah, and that is what is firing up a lot of the pockets of conflict that you see scattered across Nigeria, starting from Boko Haram. Even though we acknowledge that it is critical to know and to accept the universal truth that resource mobilization and allocation is usually the reason for conflict. Right now, they have taken it a bit higher by introducing a new dimension of ideology, you know, so that they want to enforce certain religion-setting ways of doing things under people so that they can earn us, they can enjoy the resources that are possible from those environments. See what's happening in Afghanistan, for instance. Today, they have taken over Afghanistan and they are propagating a way of life and living at the same time and nursing and enjoying the resources in Afghanistan. So, for instance, if there were no resources in that land, if it was not possible for you to be able to make money, you know, in that land from what has been naturally deposited in that land, you'd find that people would revere the human resources more like you would find in some countries like Switzerland, like you would find in Japan, like you would find in Norway, like you find in some of these countries, because they understand therefore that it's the human resource that would be able to have them enjoy resources. If they are unable to properly harness, if they are able to properly put together, work the human resources, they will not be able to enjoy. But in the case of Nigeria, you see that there's a lot of conflict around how to mobilize and advocate resources. Certain people up north are saying the resources of the oil belong to them. The people in the south are saying that the resources of the oil belong to them. The people in the east. And this is what is at the core of the conflict that we have in Nigeria. And just to jump in and quickly answer your question directly, all the reasons that may cause conflict or occurs in terrorism can be one ideological reason. And you can find greed also thrown into it. You can find religious practices thrown into it. You can find nepotistic tendencies thrown into it. You can find pockets of other kinds of reasons. But at the core of it, the chief reason of it is resource mobilization and allocation. OK, Peter, you're a security expert. And I remember the last time I spoke with Sheikh Gumi on what was really going on in the minds of these bandits and why he thought, because he had been visiting with them and why he thought they were doing what they did. Now, he pointed mostly to the fact that government had abandoned these young men. He talked about the fact that they were uneducated. They were illiterate. They had no soft skills. And so the easiest way for them to get on with life was to go into the trenches and pick up guns and carry out these dastardly acts, even though it doesn't sit well with me. But I'd like to put it to you as a security person. We also hear of issues of ungoverned spaces and ungoverned areas where most of these terrorist activities thrive. I'll ask you, why do you think that these spaces still exist and are ungoverned? Well, first of all, the land mass, the number of security personnel we have on the ground is incapable of adequately policing for the security across the vast, wide spaces of this country. It's to be literally impossible to have... The way we are now is to take a lot of time to recruit and train new security personnel. So that's one of the reasons why it is difficult to really secure those places. Also, because we have a limited number of men on the ground, so to speak, if we try to engage these insurgents in the kind of warfare that they are fighting right now, they will draw us into a longer conflict. There will be significant casualties. Already there's battle fatigue for many of the troops who have been deployed already and it's causing mistakes in some ways and that leads to a lot of lives and assets as well. So the answer to that question is that the primary reason why it's difficult to govern those spaces is that we don't have enough security personnel to do that, given kind of terrorist threats at first place. And now dealing with... Because he also talks about the fact that there's been some form of abandonment and I think that Andy also mentioned something like that. So we're not just dealing with Boko Haram. Boko Haram is obviously mostly in the fringes of the northeast but we heard, I think two months ago, that they were moving their camp to the northwest but we've not really heard much of Boko Haram, thank goodness. But then we still are having to deal with bandits and these killings and kidnappings. And the governments in most of those places, take for example, a state like the state of Governor Autumn where he's always calling on the federal government or speaking about the fact that the federal government is not doing its bit. Let's talk about the governors themselves, in those states, in those areas, how well have they done with the people in those areas because they are the ones who somewhat are perpetrating these... I mean, as much as we say that we have the armed struggle within the cell and we've seen a lot of gun running across that comes into the country, what about keeping the young people busy so that they're not necessarily wooed or layered into these, you know, ant practices? Peter, can you hear me? Peter, you are a music general, how... Yeah, we're having connection issues. We're having connection issues. So I'm saying my beings... Hello? Go ahead. Okay. So I was saying that... F... Five... Oh, yeah. Peter... Peter, we're going to throw this question to Andy because we're having connection issues with him. So if... We're having connection issues with you, Peter. It's difficult for us to hear you. So we're going to throw this question to Andy. Andy, can you come in, please? All right. Yes, let me say this and let me make it abundantly clear. The reason we have ungoverned spaces is not because of the fact that we have limited number of security personnel. Yes, that can be a secondary reason. But the reason we have ungoverned spaces is because of the irresponsibility of our governments. See, Marianne, go do a mathematical connotation or collection or summation, if you may, of the total number of people that have been estimated to be bandits, the number of people that have been estimated to be fighting the Boko Haram War, and compare it to what we have in the entire military of Nigeria. You would find that if we just sent our asseners, we deployed it to go and prosecute this battle. These people would not last for a week. I'm telling you, go do this calculation. The government is simply irresponsible. They are simply irresponsible. As I speak to you right now, go find the total. And let me tell you, there is no way in the world where you would have the right complement of security to prosecute battles like this. There's no way in the world. In America, is it in North Korea? Is it in China? See the population of China? See the number of the armed forces that they have? There's no way in the world, but guess what? It is the fear of the government and the fear of the cohesive instruments that actually prevent people from getting into crime and criminal activities. Once you're unable to convey this fear into the hearts of the people, because of the fact that you have abdicated your responsibilities like we have seen, you will therefore find other people, different people in that territory who begin to all of a sudden gather some gumption, gather some audacity with which to be able to take spaces for themselves, again because I have talked about resource mobilization and allocation. The government simply abdicated their responsibilities. Andy, I'm not in any way holding brief for the government. Neither am I holding brief for our security forces. But just to put a number to the armed forces, the Nigerian Army has 223,000 soldiers in total, as we speak. Of course, recruits men are going on, but that's what we have. And this is a country of people with almost 200 plus million people. And of course, we have land mass also, especially in those parts, the Northeast. So I'm wondering if we take all 223,000 soldiers to the Northeast, what happens to other areas that need to be covered by soldiers? There are over a million, a million. If you put the Nigerian Navy, Nigerian Air Force, the Nigerian Army, the Nigerian Police together, there are over a million, over a million. And I am not telling you what is, what I am manufacturing from my room. Yes, we can be more than that. Yes, Nigeria should actually have more than 1.2, 1.3 million that we currently have today. We should have as much as 10 million, seven million. But Merian, guess what? What is the total number of the people prosecuting this insurgency in the Northwest? We were given the result recently. What is the total number of Boko Haram fighters, estimated Boko Haram fighters? They are not up to put together 100,000 on Merian. Okay, let's even say that. Let's even say there are 200,000. Let's even say there are 300,000 on Merian. And they are not. Let's even say there are 300,000. If you took 700,000 of the Nigerian total armed forces to go to that zone, to go and neutralize, extinguish every violent force against the states, do you think that these people will be able to cough? You don't necessarily have to have one man, one kilometer, one military man, one kilometer to be able to police a state. Merian, the reason we police, the way we police banks and prevent fraud is not because we have control officers that are moving around the bank every second. No, we introduce systems. We have introduced structures into the banks that makes it impossible for cashiers to steal. This is the same strategy that can be deployed in fighting security, insecurity. You introduce fear of the Nigerian military into the heart of the people. Cough has six, let me tell you, Merian. There's no reason. Yeah, quickly because we have to go. There's no reason. Other people, other than the state agencies, there's no reason they should be able to deploy violence and deploy it much more than the instrument of state that have the legality to deploy such violence. All right, Peter. Today in Nigeria, we are hiding a lot of... Andy, because we're almost out of time, let's try to get Peter in quickly to give his two cents. Peter, would you like to contest what Andy is saying about deploying military to the Northeast? Oh, absolutely, absolutely. Go ahead. I mean... Peter, we're so sorry. Once again, we tried to give you an opportunity to speak, but I think that the connection on your end is pretty bad, so we apologize. But Andy, thank you very much for being part of the conversation. Peter, I'll be done. Is this a security expert? And of course, Andy Apotove is a political analyst. Thank you so much. We have to go. That's all on PLOS Politics. Thank you for staying with us. We will return tomorrow at the same time. I am Marianna Cone. Have a good evening.