 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, everyone. Basil Chapman on this Friday, last day of the week. What a week it's been, hasn't it? Friday the 18th of March. We're looking at the Dow. Up down 62 points at 34. It spiraled Thursday and Friday above. It went right to the Chapman Insight Tractory Pallin Zone. That became a support yesterday and it spiraled to the close at the high of the day in Leg C. Really important to see what happens today because we've gone from a buy signal. Remember I spoke about Chapman Wave methodology where you can get something called a restart. You can go to peak A or peak A and B and then pull back sharply. You can do that a few times as long as you don't take out the original starting point of 32,272. Let me give you an example. You can do that a few times as long as you don't take out the original starting point of 32,272. Let me do this. It's technical Friday. We'll do some technical stuff here. Let me move that over. In the Chapman Wave methodology, we're always trying to identify the lowest low bar to start a wave count. That says that from that low bar, as long as that low bar holds, every successively higher peak gets alphabetized sequentially all the way from A to G. But it's at the fourth highest peak, peak D, where other things can happen. You can see it can continue down very sharply. We've got that right there. Look, he has a dow at 36,952.65 on the 5th of January. We are warning people that we could start to move down. Look at this. There are other actions that can occur if within three bars at peak D it sees a higher high because automatically you can count, have an alternate count. The new peak goes to E slash A, F slash B, G slash C, and then there's another D. So you can have another buy mode from this level. There are many K instances of that. Most importantly, what we're looking at here, here's a C. The technique that I discussed is how the stochastic can give you the starting point for a buy signal. Then we need price movement in confirmation of the price movement. And then you want the MACD, the histogram to cross positive. That's the nine-period. It goes over the 14-period. That's the nine-period differential. It goes over the 26-period longer moving average red one. And that kicks off an upgrade that goes from a buy signal to a buy mode. It did that in one day yesterday. So now we're in a buy mode and the anticipation doesn't have to happen. But the anticipation is that there should be, and now I can draw it in. I should have drawn it in last night. I did it in other charts, but now I'll do it here. You see this one-to-one. This is for those of you who listened to Tiger Financial News, Tf&M a lot. And over the decades, you know that most of the hosts talk about an A to B with C to D as a lightning rod measurement. I've done a different action. I have a thing that I call a parallel wave count. In other words, if there is a move up and it breaks the channel and it starts to turn down in the dreaded age pattern, you can get a parallel move in the same angle. Look, this is the same angle. A one-to-one extension, I call it a channel wave, parallel wave, one-to-one extension. And what we've got is this extension went to the 32,272 low. It rallied sharply and then it made this age pattern but a successful one because it didn't break the dreaded age. This one did. It went to a lower low. This one didn't. And that says you can get the channel wave restart, meaning that each time it tries to ready. It's in quicksand. It was on the ice. The wheel, you get wheel spin. And until you can get some traction, the torque of the stochastic doesn't kick in and when it finally kicks in, the torque takes you quickly to the upside and then the momentum is the MACD that takes over. And that's basically what we're looking at here and that makes this 200-period moving average right here to about 34,200. Really important, let me just give you the exact number. This is technical Friday. So I am spending, yep, 34,361, sorry. And what was the low today? The low was 34,279. So it went under it and now it's nicely above it. We're only down 14 points. The reason why we've been long, oh, I didn't put that in here. I have it in my other charts. We're long from before the opening right here and that was three days ago. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, four days ago. So what's really important about this is that we've seen an upgrade to a buy mode. The implication is as soon as I say buy mode and I put in an up arrow, oh, I did it in my other charts. That's what it is. This is the chart that I show my subscribers every day right here and I did that. In this particular, there's the up arrow. Here are all the different techniques that we use and here's the nine-period. They cross-positive. That's really a big thing. It's gone green. This is the same chart but it has the magnetic and stochastic. Stochastic is now finally at 82%, over 80%. Wow. And you're bumping into automated 34,529 automatic Chapman wave notation of resistance level right there. The 120-minute chart is in a peak. F slash C could go through a D holding the 200-period moving average. The magnet is great. Stochastic is fantastic at 98.43. You're only 1.6% away from 100%. It never goes to 100%. So this and down the right, you can see the L. It says long because that's the confirmation that the nine has gone over the 14-period moving average. I want you to spend time on this. I don't have to spend time on the others because the articulation of the different methodologies applies the same. Now we're looking at the weekly chart of the down right at the high of the day is 34,469. What is the 14-period exponential moving average? Click on it right there. And it says 34,527. So we've still got about another 50 or 60 points to go to hit that 14-period moving average resistance. We're above the pink one. To hit the pink to go green is going to take an incredible amount of work. So there are a couple of things going on. Because it's more than mid-month, I can look at this chart on the right and say the monthly chart of the Dow, when you consider there's a wall, there's inflation, all the things, interest rates, everything that you would talk about in the most negative terms has been reflected by the Dow going from 36,952. This is the monthly chart to the low on the 24th of Feb at 32,272. I must say that under all these conditions, and what I'd said about 10 days ago, I started saying, getting into last Friday, that for those people who listened to me and said way back in the fall, I said if you want to start taking money off, take some money off, I think we're getting into a very choppy period you can go higher, but I'm anticipating that there's a chop and you can start then to add back over a period of time. And I said, you know what, the last tranche that you put in, because there's a wall, there's all these things going on just for money management. I don't have anything in the cash list, but for money management, maybe take a little bit off from the last tranche that you put in. I still say with that, because we're not done, there's a lot to go from this one. I'll be back. Now we get all the questions that I had and that'll include steels, some stuff. I'll be back. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30am to 4.00pm eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN Educating Investors. Is it in a buy mode? It's very close. It's in a buy signal. I haven't yet got confirmation of I have to wait for the close today but it looks good and looks to me like it should go to a buy mode. At this particular point I'm just calling it a buy signal and that weekly chart is not anything close to well, it's getting close to the 44.39 level of the 14 period moving average, the black 14 period moving average in the weekly and once again I'm looking at the monthly and the monthly really has held very well even though there were 2 Chapman with Roman Candles I don't ignore that I just, yeah real quickly let me show you this because it's technical Friday I had an alternate count to the top of G slash C most importantly what I put is a down arrow because all the technical start to turn down and that was at about 44.09, it's now at 44.01 44.09, it's now at 44.01 and the weekly chart the weekly, the 10 minute chart I like to think of these as sequences in time frames has gone to a leg E at a higher 44.16 0.00, round number high and it's trading down only about 15 points from that and there are signals to say that at least in the short term the 10 minute can pull back but so far it's been a really surprising move this is the time I do say surprising which we pull back say 20% of the last hours move on Thursday and almost went back to unchanged now the jars down to how many we want so S&P, IWM I did not just do this I did in the update the queues are holding very nicely and that to me is part of this rotation I think and so a bunch of questions have come in and I'll talk to them as we move on through this spectacular decline in so many of those really beaten down that were leaders NASDAQ 100 type stocks I think they're trying to find some kind of support in trying to find that support there's a chance that we still see some selling into the big caps the last of the big caps and these are not just tech but these are the big caps that were moving up very nicely going into January so they delayed their turn down and I think they're still somewhat vulnerable so the rotation says you've got to be very selective and as a result I'm going to go through some of the charts in a moment but let's just finish up with the TLT which is trying to rally off the low there is a gap if that gap gets filled and we can see a trade in the 134.70 to 135.35 level in the TLT on a closing basis any day next week and there's just a mile pullback and then towards Friday or Monday of the following week we start to see 136.337 that would say to me that the Fed is doing something that is trying to get the racist a little bit lower so that when they add the quarter point and then talk about half a point you've already come off a load in the TLT so it gives you a little bit of a cushion but looking out it says to me that the TBT and there's a couple of questions came in about the TBT you didn't get to a D we didn't get to a D, I've got an alternate count F slash C most importantly look at this which I believe inside track target repellent line in the weekly chart it got hit exactly on the back now this is like a moving target because I didn't get an exact fulcrum low plumb line to go to say that the quad on the left the half arch or the semi-circle quarter semi-circle isn't at the midpoint it could be at the midpoint and that would stretch you all the way to somewhere in June on a weekly basis yeah maybe in late May to get back to the high that was made in the TBT the inverse of the TLT and that would be at 22.60 so as I'm looking at it right now there could be just a stalling motion but there's a really good chance that the TBT which is basically the yield is going to go higher the next resistance 232.133 that will be a resistance alright so I did that now I want to do the crude oil just quickly crude oil digesting big gains with this monthly looking like a Chapman wave Roman candle on a weekly basis while the week is young because we've still got a whole couple of hours to go to the close on Friday so far this could turn into a Chapman wave Roman candle and says if at any point next week crude oil goes on a daily basis below 98.50 this is a continuous contract there's a real good chance it's going to test the low and even go a little low and try to test 90 oh I'd rather see that than actually see it push higher into the 110 area what am I missing oh high grade copper very nicely yesterday and today it's at 4.73 look at all the contradictory actions we've got here and what we're really looking at is high grade copper is in a trading band and I had a question about SCCO would I look at that yes SCCO is doing very nicely here it did make that missing PD I'm missing for me because I didn't put it in and you just hit that yep there it is there's your D D and it should have a down arrow because everything went negative and I have to put the down arrow in even if it goes higher because it closed underneath the 14 period moving arrow three times so that says alright you can go higher and now there's a pattern that says maybe we've got a chapter falling x formation what is that technical Friday let's go into that that's this particular pattern right here run up sharply and then start to make lower highs and much lower lows find some support and then try to take out this downtrend up a downtrend line if you do there's a chance you can go back to that previous higher peak but it has to break out decisively above 74 50 and this is southern copper move that away SCCO is a symbol trading at 7345 up 37 and this is a good sign for the general economy even with everything else that's going on and this is just a commodity scarcity issue I think it's a little bit more than that so that's what we're looking at there okay here we go questions um questions I want you to do first of all one question that came in which was overstock OSTK I have a position the question that wanted to know where should I add so this is a very interesting chart formation this has a way of being in favor that it goes from like a single digit spirals into the 130 120 30 area and then gives a chunk of it back but look at this I'm going to show you the monthly chart overstock OSTK is a symbol at the moment is trading up 35 cents of 52 45 look at this monthly chart it makes a low back in 2012 I didn't realize it went back so far it goes back a long time I know I'd always seen the name but I just didn't 497 back in September of 2012 it goes to a peak C1 it goes to peak A, B and a peak C now historically this is what I tend to do I just want to know that it made a top that I can restart the count so I call this C1 and even though the C2 is quite a bit lower rather than just a couple of pins I do put it in because it starts fresh from a new low and goes to a peak B around about 90 and then pulls back again trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange 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trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com I'm not going to take too much time I just want to say that these you remember I showed you the chart of advanced micro devices some time ago and I said how incredible was that advanced micro devices would go and this goes back 30-40 years it can go from the single digits to the triple digits and then back again up and down can do that periodically just real quickly let me show you what I'm talking about where did I type that of course I typed into the den by mistake AMD look at this okay now it's spectacular but look at these other times it went from single digits back in 2002 to 42.70 in March of 2006 then it has a little bit of a dip and it goes back to about 7 or 8 in 2009 and then it routed to 10 and then pulls back retest that left side low and then it has a little bounce to a D and pulls back and then it screams all the way to 34 pulls back sharpies to the 40p moving average in the monthly and then has a little bit of a rally to the last high in the 160 area now let's go back to this I always look and I say stocks that have a wildness to them keep that as a characteristic that you want to be aware of that's all it doesn't say it's going to happen right now it doesn't say keep it as an awareness so you see this arrow up so that's a brand new because it took out the left side low that started a peak ABCD now you have to consider this is a fresh start once you take out that low you have to have a fresh start this goes to peak A and it pulls back and then it makes underneath it another A then it pulls back holds the 14p moving average and the 9 and it goes to peak A and then goes to a B these actually underneath and that's second A right there and it pulls back to a lower low but that isn't a B minus because that's still the starting point so on a monthly basis it says it did not hold the left side low it did the degradation and more like a rectangle formation took out the low of January of 2021 of 4675 made the most recent low of 3567 so the monthly chart is saying there is no signal here if anything the monthly chart is saying be a little careful because the month is still young but there is an S saying sell meaning the 9 is about to cross over to cross under the 14p moving average but we still got the rest of the month to go now the weekly chart weekly chart had a cup formation went to higher highs then pulled back and did the one-to-one to the downside from the cup formation remember inverted H pattern and now it's trying to rally nicely but the 9 period moving average has to cross the 14 period moving average and go green that's number one the histogram I love the fact that the histogram is improving and that that 9 period differential of the mag D the green line is so close to turning up once it crosses up you've got yourself at least some semblance of energy to the upside stochastic still very weak it's only at 22% on balance volume is everywhere so the weekly chart says it's starting a cup formation but you really need the guidance it's like a super tanker like the monthly is a super tanker this is like a midship this is like a little tanker that goes back and forth from the sewers canal down to the gullis coast and what we're looking at is the weekly chart has to give you the direction so because you're in it and you want to add I have a completely different if you said to me right now would you buy it would you sell it would you hold would you not do anything I'd not do anything yes it's up 6 cents today 50 to 16 that's a good sign and it's had a really good three days and then I insist about across the 14 period moving average and I would say because it's trapped in this rectangle and within that is even a smaller rectangle I would probably say because you've got a position if it goes higher I would rather answer the position as it moves higher at this point I don't want to answer the position if it goes lower because it could get stuck for a while it doesn't have to break down but it just might not go anywhere and you've got your position you don't want to add to a stuck position that's my belief it stands right now I would say to you hold off maybe early next week but I will look at it again if on Tuesday it's trading oh it's a 52.006 right now down just a few cents if on by Tuesday it's actually trades not just popped up there and pulled back but it's actually holding about 54.25 to me that would be a much better sign look at the stochastic and start if the stochastic goes flat in the 80% areas I have no qualms but not like this if it pulls back at any point between now and Tuesday we'll look at it again Tuesday and it's holding above the 9p moving which is at 49.51 I could do an assessment then but if it was a fresh position and you say I like this very much I've done my homework where should I enter it's completely different because then what I would say to you is right here start your position at 52.05 I would not let it drop under 50 that's a 4.5% risk on a small starter position and that would be fine but if it's asking me what would you do and you haven't done any homework to say things like really improving it overstock.com I'd say step aside CLF is trading this is Cleveland Cliffs ink flat roll steel it hit a high of 27.78 the other day this is one of those that we had we don't have any more Cleveland Cliffs CLF is trading at 26.93 down to 53 look at the way the steel ETF is done it looks like Cleveland Cliffs look at this cup formation triple top in fact I could draw this line right here and so I've already drawn it this line right here let's go to the body of this candle and it takes it right there and it says let's make it as simple as possible it's acting really well I'm not sure exactly why Steve Steve SLX that vectors steel ETF has done so well in this environment it can't just because it's still short it must be because people are really needing to steal I like it it's a little different because it's thematic if you look at X which had bad report yesterday it's down to $1.82 at 32.73 it just went from what was that I forgot to type that in 18 something 1798 I think that was the 24th 1798 to 34 a double something's going on and that just tells me that the steels are doing very nicely oh look at that remember we said I put the down arrow there there's your dreaded H pattern in the E-mini it went from a high of 44 16.00 round number and we got a peak G-slash C in the 1-minute chart but a leg E-mini peak E in the 10-minute chart so 43.86 is the 200-period moving average it said 43.97 if it can't find support of 43.92 be careful because that's where it's going it's had the opening solver pulling back and then running short so I'm going to do another one and that is NUE which is already one of the leading companies in the steel sector I must say on a shorter basis they look a little top but this is the place that's been the go-to place for a while just to find one steels are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience 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recommendations for valued tech stocks as well as entry prices, target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week you can get the Technology Insider at TFNN.com for only $37.50 Sign up for David's newsletter the Technology Insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk free today with our 30 day money back guarantee TFNN Educating Investors Biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade LABU or LABD Directions Daily S&P Biotech 3 times Bull and Bear ETFs Visit Direction Investments.com slash Biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks, charges and expenses of the Direction Chairs carefully before investing the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus contain this and other information about Direction Chairs to obtain a Prospectus or Summary Prospectus please contact Direction Chairs at 866-476-7523 the Prospectus or Summary Prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors Distributor Foreside Fund Services, LLC Watch Tiger TV 30.78 on the 16th so it's just consolidating if you go to X, US Steel bad news comes out and the next thing you know it pulls back but it's pulling back from a high I don't think there's an all-time high I forgot to look at this No, no, no 70.95 way back in 2010 went down to $6.80 in 2015-16 I think it was January of 16 and then we're looking at 47 down to 4.45 and now back up look at this, it's getting a huge trading ban it's getting a little extended so I think that right now the Steel stocks are telling us they're ready for some kind of a consolidation I have no way of counting this in the weekly chart as a New Leg A it can't call it an F because it's starting to brand new hmm maybe that's not true maybe it's an alternate count but look at that single leg A you'd expect that to have some digestive phase and leg F in the weekly I think Steel is just about to have some kind of a consolidation I like them a lot but going in now I think the risk reward just at the moment is a little too high so CLF is even Cliffs that was a question I would say have patience if it goes a little higher that's fine it's a 24 weeks it's a 26-83 it'll come down below 24 and that's where we start to look at it again let's hold off okay, next question was where did it go I did that I did that ILF we did yesterday just wanted to follow through because I said let's see where it closes so this is a different pattern it's held at Georgia period moving averages that in American at 40 ETF so this says at 27 59 it could go in a rectangle formation it could actually trade from the 27 high 27s down to the low 26s and stay there for a little while and look at the weekly chart the weekly chart is, oh channels I said I talk about channels so look at this channel straight down beautiful channel and then straight up and I said it might have a little difficulty going much above 28 I supported the 26 40s in terms of the weekly chart so that was the one question then I said yesterday that I would talk about I would talk about the S&P today technical Friday and I'll get into that a little bit so I wanted to show you something if I can hopefully pick out the right one I think this is it oh this is the one excuse me I do this some of you remember that I've been drawing this for forever because I used to hand chart and it was the easiest thing to do to take out your ruler on the engineering paper and take your pencil and draw it and that's where I learned that you can sometimes draw a line and then the price goes completing the opposite direction and then a long time later suddenly you see this line and look at this the trend line came in and it started way back way back it started back at the low of October of 2002 at 768 and look what happens see this great trend line it keeps going up and then we bump into it as resistance this trend line that you didn't even know about it just didn't exist because it was there faded gray and comes in at 78 72 January of 2018 pullback sharpie and what does it do it gives you three retests in the chapter inside track repellent zone at 2940 September of 2018 then you get that massive decline and what happens finally in December of 2019 it starts to break out and it breaks out and it does that for three bars to peak G top February of 2020 at 3393 plunge down remember that I don't have to tell you this we know what happened here to 2191 and now we started a new rally alright so that's trend lines now the other thing I want to say I'm going to squeeze this chart just to show you the incredible action what in human nature remember I always think that the price point of the market is basically in work but in human nature because people are pressing buttons and that's the psychology but have a look at this look at this channel actually there was one here I don't have that chart but there was a beautiful channel here going to the high of 1994 actually I've drawn these channels in forever but look at the big one that started back in April of 1994 I think 1994 was the 95 yes 1994 so I remember sitting right here with Jeff Vinnick and it was May May of 1994 oh I'm beginning to sound like Larry it was a Tuesday afternoon no in fact it wasn't it was Monday would have been the speech by Clinton the evening speech and I had slipped on ice coming home from it hit a tree went right through the wind my face went to the windshield so I went to meet Vinnick in his office with my partner at the time back at Fidelity when he was running the growth fund and we were sitting there and I had these I should never have gone at my face I had these scars but I had mentioned earlier at a meeting that that was my price level was that the Dow at the time was the Dow would hold steady and that the price that I had as the low had hit exactly but then I made the error of saying but I think we're in a choppy thing we're going to come down a little bit more so everything was perfect except I should have said and looking ahead we'll see what happens I remember this distinctly and in fact what happened is we didn't go very far and we did come back and test but then it broke out it broke out in December of 1994 and it screamed to the upside and look at this channel that it made a channel with outside chapter with inside track repellent line hits number of times he has a support line and it makes a top in at 1520 September of 2000 September of 2000 no no no it was March of 2000 I don't know why I put September it was 1552 point oh I never oh there it is sorry I don't know what that that was the retest sorry I should have made that gray that should have been gray and this should have been bright red or yellow that was the high and then we did a retest and then we came down and look at the beautiful down channel to the low of October 2002 760 and look at the beautiful up channel with a channel wave this is where I learned about the rectangle going into a lopsided V shape and I call it the gravy cut pattern and it went to the high of October 2007 at 1576 and then and look another once it broke the support levels of the up channel inside track propane and so it broke down and went to 666.79 in March and then it ran up in a beautiful up channel to 2139 in May of 2015 dropped to 1810 with the broke out channel then it got back in and that was pretty much the end of that channel and now we are in another up panel and this is the arching so let's talk about that I want you to go through sharpening north skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN 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I'm doing well good morning to you so you'd like to look at Microsoft? I was just going to go over what I know there's not much time but I like to do the Friday option trade and so I got in this morning there was that dip this morning on Microsoft I bought in at $6.41 my time it was like $7.12 I think $7.11 something like that I bought it at $0.94 and I sold it at $2.30 fabulous so congratulations and you know what's interesting it's sitting right on the 200-period moving average that has been a magnet it goes up and down and sitting there at this particular point so you're out of that position right? I did yeah you know my DL5 Microsoft running it did what I wanted to do it did it quick so that was it Speedy Brent I like that that's a great great trade I'm going to do this for one moment if you don't mind so Microsoft I was asked about the Fang stocks so I meant including Microsoft Microsoft and that's what I meant that the big caps of that went sorry the big stocks that had the huge rallies and then tumbled I think we've seen some of that rotation now into the Fang type stocks so it's really in a different course all together so Microsoft is really stalling it's going to be digesting its gains Facebook same thing it's had a really nice rally but at $2.12 I think it'll start to stall to the $2.18-$2.20 area if you're looking at Apple, Apple's the same thing Amazon's at $161 it's stuck in this range if you're looking at Amazon, Amazon's a little better in that the technicals have improved more but it's also stuck so your trade was fantastic you got in and you got out hey have a wonderful weekend Brenton thanks for calling do the same Vazel thanks so much take care thank you very much so folks I'm handing over to the very president for my opening call subscribers tomorrow Saturday for the overview we're going to be discussing justice and where are the opportunities we've taken some of the