 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Dot-com where today we are previewing week 11 in the NFL by talking to Nate Tice of the athletic and the silent count Substack getting a thoughts of not just week 11 but also a deeper dive into the role film can play in betting and how to bridge the gap between you know Identifying what film a identify that we may miss by the numbers and a whole lot more. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power bank comm and Ed after last week I feel like I might need some film analysis. I might need some like voodoo work done It was not great for me. So I am ready for week 11 to be here. How are you doing? Yeah, I'm doing pretty well also did not have the greatest week with my bets feel like I kind of picked Some of the pick some of the wrong games even though my numbers were on a lot I kind of had a feeling my numbers were gonna be fine just with so many double-digit spreads right and things that I didn't feel like deserved necessarily those double-digit spreads So yeah, that's how it goes I think that I need to take the Greg Peterson approach about Greg on the show before where he bets every game Because like if I had done that I'd have been fine last week Like, you know, my numbers were okay if I had taken the Greg Peterson approach of bet every game I'd have been fine But the ones I chose to bet were not that great So looking for a rebound here in week number 11 will go back through week 10 in just a second But first a we're gonna have Nate Tyson on today. You can find Nate on Twitter at Nate underscore tights. You don't know Nate he Is son of Mike Tyson were Vikings head coach back in my days back in Minnesota when I was a youth wearing a Dante Culpepper jersey on the practice fields for middle school football He worked in the NFL for the Falcons was a coach with them He played quarterback at Wisconsin and now works to the athletic does our podcast for Robert Mays Well, it does a lot of you know, film-based stuff also his own sub-stack called the silent count and Nate is Unique because he understands analytics while being a film guy And I think that if we're gonna talk to someone about, you know, the role film can play I want to talk to someone who's not gonna be like, you know, sometimes condescending about it and Nate is not that Nate is the opposite where he understands it and Will simplify things people who may not totally do that So I wanted to date on today to talk about that talk about the role Film can play when trying to bet on games and much more so Nate coming up in just one second The first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Apple podcast you name it We are there hit subscribe and also leave us a rating interview If you like what you're before we talk to Nate though Gotta go back to last week and eat some crow based on what happened there Covering the past All right So in week 10 we had Brandon Gadoula my colleague over at number fire on to preview week number 10 You can find Brandon on Twitter at Gadoula 13 check him out with me on the daily fantasy podcast We have the number fire really fantasy podcast feed in like I said It was pretty much a bloodbath across the board last week Brandon and I both have thoughts on Seattle Green Bay game Brandon had Seattle plus three and a half and over 49 and a half and I had the Seahawks team total over 23. Oh boy Was real bad brain it did get moving on the spread bed because it closed at three But creep may shut them out 17 nothing at it I feel like I just was too confident the guy who was not sleeping had a broken finger Probably a misstep in judgment there and being overly confident the guy coming off a big impactful injury He wasn't he wasn't sleeping. He's who's rehabbing his finger for 19 hours a day Yeah, but part of rehabbing your fingers to sleep and let your body recover you would think but if you have nanobubbles You don't need sleep. That's the rule. So all right, you know The sleep thing actually didn't like I don't know. I think just in retrospect I should have been more skeptical given that he was ahead of timeline stuff like that He apparently couldn't take snaps under center in This game so like that limits things quite a bit. I think it was an error in judgment of my part with that one I think you also had a game And I think you're also having a stretch of games where the Green Bay Packers has been had defense has been really good Yeah, I'm sustainably good. They were down their top corner still played great coverage on DK and Tyler Lockett. I Don't think that happens every time these two teams get together, right? Man culpa on that one Brandon was on the Browns and plus one and a half It closed a two and a half and the Patriots just you know, they roasted them Browns were up seven nothing I didn't talk about this on the show, but I did bet plus two and a half So Lisa didn't talk about on the show. It doesn't help my my pocketbook any Patriots scored twice quick Spiraled out of control from there easy win for the Patriots Brandon's on the Jets at plus 13 This number moved a lot during the week. It was 13 when we talked it moved to 12 Which was a good movement and then back to 13 and a half by kickoff and the Jets defense actually played decent in the first half They held the bills to 10 points the first 28 minutes But then the bill scored before half lit him up in the third quarter and like that's something that can happen with the Bills like they can go on those runs that offense is capable of that it's actually we'll talk about Nate too about how they're a volatile offense and What that means for them going for Brandon was on the over for Atlanta versus Dallas and one team held They're part of the bargain here. That was a 55 when we talked about and it closed It just wasn't competitive competitive enough like how was 143 to 3 but I think that that I don't think that was a mistake like because Part of the risk you run with betting high totals in non competitive games is this but the spread tightened in favor of Atlanta It opened at nine or nine and a half and close the seven and a half So I actually think that this one the process here was good It was just that Atlanta had like an implosion that like I don't think this was a forecastably Blowout type game. Do you agree that? I mean, that's some issues with turnovers, right? Yeah. Yeah So it definitely happens for sure Final one was a close one for Brandon. He had the over at Nashville for the Titans and Saints It was 45 four and a half felt the 43 potentially do down in Camara being ruled out But it still almost got there it probably should have the Saints scored to make it a 44 point game late again, the total is 44 and a half They were going for two to try to tie the game and if they had made it the over would have hit had they made one of the two extra Points they made they missed earlier. It would have hit so had either thing broken in his favor He would have gotten that one just not quite so extra points tough luck there for Brandon I lost my other bet as well That was the Cardinals minus 10 and a half against the Panthers. This was on Wednesday. We talked about it I thought Kyler Murray is gonna play Deandre Hopkins got ruled out Kyler actually did practice Friday. So like, you know I don't know before the Panther signed Cam Newton I'm not sure that impacted anything outside of like morale. I guess but when you put That combined with Kyler being ruled out it closed at seven. So Panthers rolled here. They're 23 nothing at one point I was out in this part of the afternoon Looked at my phone for a touchdown notification and saw two can Newton touched. I was like, uh-oh Something has gone seriously wrong here and they won 34 to 10 but like Recording Wednesday, I felt pretty safe assuming that Kyler would go because he was apparently a game time call week before just didn't happen Right and you I still think you want to bet it then because I agree you can't you can't wait for these injury news You have to uh, the market's gonna move on you So I had it at 14. So if Kyler's ruled in It's probably gonna move to 14. I don't want to lose three and a half points I don't know if it's moving 14, but right, but it's probably moving at least and I think that I I feel good about when I place that bet still I know that didn't work But like and I could sound like bullheaded but like I still think that was the right way to go Uh, you had Denver minus two and afghans Philadelphia close to the pick. Uh, Philly won this one 30 to 13 the movement was weird because I didn't really see a whole lot in philly here didn't seem like the type of situation They'd be able to run the football as well as they did. I don't know just uh, a weird game there as well I mean, they they kind of run the football. Yeah, I mean, that's that's probably the strength of that team I was more something about like the Denver defense. I thought that they'd be like at least competent against the run And they weren't Well, things happened. I mean you get a you get you obviously get the touchdown return uh in which teddy bridge water made minimal effort to uh I I was watching that play on red zone. I was kind of like well, see I Like I assumed that they blew the play dead. Yeah the way that it evolved because I couldn't hear the volume Yeah, so I may be the only one who like I I would defend teddy on that because a gruesome like injury has passed like You know, that's pretty rough But also we saw a baker mayfield when he hurt his shoulder Earlier this year that was on a tackle on a pick and like the net benefit of teddy trying to make that tackle I feel like it might be better for him like not just totally a million like he did but like I understand not Selling your soul to get that tackle. I don't know if it's just because like I again grip, minnesota I like teddy generally would be like I kind of get it just for him specific for him very specifically given the past and given that you know baker hurt his shoulder this year too So maybe I don't know it's bad take But still like two and a half points of movement the wrong direction is uh Is not good Yeah We need a palate cleanser. Eds Let's do that and turn the page towards week number 11 by talking to Nate tights Once again, Nate is on twitter at Nate underscore tights You can find him on the athletic football show Twice per week. He's also on the silent count, which is his sub stack You can find that by going to Nate's twitter profile at Nate underscore tights and checking out the silent count there We're gonna talk week 11 the nfl talk some breeder's cup Look back at that some horse racing and also get his thoughts on film analysis in betting on the nfl but first Fandolin simple mobile have partnered to add an extra layer of excitement To one of the biggest free to play contests on the market introducing the fandolin free to play gridiron pickham contest Presented by simple mobile a completely free to play contest that gives you a chance to win big on sundays Here's how it works simply answer 10 pickham questions for the week slate of nfl games and compete for a chance to win Your share of $10,000 in cash prizes if you're one of the highest scoring users on the day You'll be able to win some cold hard cash kickoff will be here before you know it So head to fandolin.com slash free slash contest slash gridiron pickham and make your picks today And skip the contracts with high speed data talking text on a powerful nationwide network with simple mobile for more details As a fandolin.com or download the fandolin fantasy app eligibility restrictions apply Covering the present Let's bring nate tice into covering the spread of talk week 11 in the nfl and nate. We appreciate the time You're a busy guy. How you doing today? Busy guy. Yeah, you know tough life of being on twitter and watching football like yeah Really really busy guy. That's what it felt funny when I was complaining to you guys about it It's like trust me I would much rather have this complaining about lack of sleep that uh, maybe being in the grind of a football season right now Yeah, they talk to us like mid-may and I think we take this right correct exactly. Oh, I get vacation in july. This is great Yeah, it's not the worst thing in the world Nate, do you count watching football as work? Not really that's not really not even one of your hours per week I don't know Thursday night Thursday night game can turn it to work Like if I like Thursday night game if I'm like, hey, I'm watching this I'm like this stuff I feel like work if I'm if it's a certain thing we try to find something in it That's like entertaining whether it's a rookie or something like that, but no, it doesn't feel like work It really doesn't I mean There's times when you're trying to put together something and you're messing something up on streamable And then like something the clip doesn't edit how you want it to that will feel like work But no, this is uh, I consider myself pretty lucky Video editing extraordinary at this point. I'm sure so that that can be it go on the resume That's always a good thing for sure podcast editing video editing now I social media manager. I guess you could throw that out there too Check it all the boxes and Nate I feel bad because I think I I missed a chance here because In retrospect, we should have had you on a couple weeks ago talk breeder's cup because you've talked about how You grew up around horse racing your dad was I think a horse racing podcast or something of that. Yeah, he dabbles Yeah, I feel like we missed the boat not having you on did you were you in on the breeder's cup this year? I was I I this is the least I handicapped I think for it I was just I was originally gonna go maybe for a day because it was in LA About my parents were gonna go and I was maybe gonna try and drive over for friday or saturday And then I kind of when I realized I wasn't gonna go I kind of just lost interest So this year's breeder's cup was not big But I I did okay in the preakness in the derby this year I think and generally I do well at belmont park just in general Like for whatever reason that how the the track breaks down like it makes sense in my brain Like how my angles just work there. So I was trying to focus on belmont when that happens in the summer Right. Yeah, so we're gonna talk to you about like nfl stuff, but what's your uh, what's your horse racing process? Are you a numbers guy? How we uh, how we filling out bets on the horse racing side? numbers guys the works, of course, um, I really like to look at Class, you know class drops and class rising which I mean nothing crazy and really it's just finding the most like just like anything I mean shoot just like any gambling angle You just try to find as many circles as possible and that's that that's how I do it It's just like hey, I like this circle. Hey, I like this circle. Hey, I like this circle Oh, we had a good work get a bullet circle and then it's just like oh, I like this trainer He's at 28% circle and then it's like all right. Well, this guy's got five circles This has three. Oh, this is a good price I've I've leaned more and more as I've gotten older into just trying to find bombs Five five to one or more as opposed to you know some two to ones three to ones and that's actually worked a little better because then I don't bet every race I get some big eight races is supposed to all 12. I gotta get action at all 12. So that kind of helps Do you still like find time to like get some horse racing stuff down like during football season? Are you too busy to like actually do like side hobbies when things are so crazy right now Up until after the draft is when I can focus on it, which is kind of works Derby's usually the first week in May. So and that's Oh my god, the first year I could have gone to the derby It was the year godel moved it two weeks back. So it was the same weekend as the draft. Oh my god I'm like to this day. I'm still better. I've been at derby twice. So I'm not complaining But uh, usually may There's a lull and you can start getting ready for the preakness It's really like preakness is when I get into it and then del mar and saratoga opening days Like that's usually near the end of coaching vacation My entire life schedule has been based off coaching vacations and coaching schedules. So That's my ebbs and flows. So yeah, so june and july is kind of my horse racing time Okay, that's good to hear. Well, we're gonna have to get you on for a full show some time to talk Some horse. I'd be very down for that now the reason I want you on outside of the horse racing stuff was because You're in this like really unique position on nfl twitter where you understand and consume and Will utilize analytics and numbers and you get the point of them and you understand them but also you're obviously grounded in film and That's why I want to talk to you about because we're a numbers based podcast in most part I want to talk to you about what the numbers miss when you're seeing people citing numbers when utilizing stuff specifically for betting What are they overlooking and what can we gain by watching film to kind of bridge that gap between the two things? Yeah This is fun. Like this is my favorite discussion with analytics and film I mean, this is where we're at with sports and I got lucky as a at a young age Obviously, my dad was like, okay, you're a pretty good athlete. You might do something But he really encouraged me just to learn Every sport and learn not just like the face value. He bought me moneyball in 2003 I was you know, 1415 like he was that money ball actually really I mean it's corny as it is nowadays, but it really did have a big effect on me But he wanted me to learn that it was when he was the head coach I mean, he was fairly aggressive on fourth down at the time. That's what's hilarious It's like it's hilarious. Like if you look back at like shotgun and fourth down numbers there They're like, man, Bill Parcells was super aggressive on fourth down It was like he went for fourth down like six times on the entire year Like, you know, like oh paint man. He was always in the shotgun in the 2000s He was a shotgun like 48% and that was crazy at that time period But he was always encouraged me with that. So I never like was snooty about it But I found that there's I think a lot of football guys it's it's a class I think it's just human element. It's like I don't understand us Like ah, and they it's just really taking the time and that's what film is too on the flip side I I've realized I'm not trying to like throw shade or anything is that Not a lot of guys watch it like even the ones that say they do Is because it takes time just like crunching numbers just like going over anything It just takes time and effort and I think what film stuff is of course the human element I mean, that's just the obvious answer But it's just a piece of the puzzle and when when I'll watch a film And I think I might get into this later as well. I watch film You can see process And you can see maybe the results not there and that's what the stat counts right the result most but it's A Watching the process and watching some of these teams. It's like they're doing the right thing They're more sound with their schemes. They're more sound with their and I know that's a whole another discussion What is soundness? But they're looking they're doing the right thing and then it's a tip fall that went bad It's a guy the guy was in the right spot. I missed the block The quarterback was about to throw a wide open touchdown his arm got hit Like a great example of this is the Cowboys Broncos game two weeks ago If you just looked at face value, you're like, oh my god, the Cowboys sucked You watch that game. It's like the Cowboys had three open touchdowns and it was just like Dax arm barely got hit on a fourth and one Another one where the oh Cooper's gonna run it for a touchdown and hit some right the chest like The process was good though And I think that's where film can kind of like bridge that gap and fill it out It's like who's getting lucky and unlucky just on the process But I've really tried to explain things. I'm trying to hone in on it is like video game and rpg terms like multiplier effects and like some things aren't as effective as other things like I know the The attitude passing ball is generally more effective, but I I've really found that Running the ball and this might be a whole nother discussion. Sorry. I this always gets me going because I try to I'm trying to figure it out like it's I that's why it fascinates me is Like, you know pitch framing and baseball Like we at first it was like fielding and base running and pitch frame. That doesn't matter It's all about getting on base and scoring runs and hitting home runs and doda Then they figure out pitch framing is really fricking valuable It could save you a lot of runs and a lot of wins over a year That's what my theory and I have nothing behind this but my theory is that that's what running the ball is that it is Yes in a epa way It might be less than what football is or throwing the football is But there's something else to it that 4-year gain has a bigger effect than the 4-year gain of throwing the ball Because and I think Brandon staley had a great point about about it's just gonna ask. Yeah Yep makes defense and he he staley's great because he kind of puts He's he's a great communicator so that helps But he Put in a great way. It makes the whole defense play defense as opposed throwing the ball turns into a one-on-one It turns it can be yes, you know, there's progression everything, but it turns into a receiver versus a corner Yes, guys at the block, da da da da But really there's other guys that aren't affected when you run the ball Everyone gets affected and so it can have a multiplier effect Then there's other things like I think center play it's just as valuable as left tackle play That's I can get into this because it's like these multiplier effects that these human element things the less efficient the less Every time you go to the well just things become less efficient It's that's why I think the film kind of shows that maybe sometimes as opposed to when you just go Wow, they just do an incompletion like not only any completions are built the same So, Nate, let me let me ask you this from someone who's never played football, you know that brennan staley Uh Quote was, you know Maybe the only clip of a coach I've watched all year. I mean this is not stuff I do but we're you know The whole analytics community was in this this a buzz about staley a couple weeks ago Uh, that has kind of abated a little bit due to some of his fourth down decision making Oh my god, I just I I heard a screams happening when that happened. I was like, what is going on? It's that might tell you what is going on um But yeah, no, he talked about the physicality of the running game and for me My question was like, well, it's it's not you're not playing two hand touch on the offensive line when you throw the ball, right? So What is different about running it? Is it is it just a matter of degree or? Help me understand that So, I mean just think of yourself like as people moving forward is a lot easier than moving backwards I'm punching moving backwards the pass set is moving backwards going like this A run is moving forward like this as a and it's easier on an offensive line It's it's just easier. It's it's tiring. I mean, that's why the highest paid guys are the highest paid guys Because they could do that for a full game is pass it pass it pass it So running the ball is just it's just easier like it's just I mean just as a as a human being like it's just It's you bench press it you can bench more than you could pull I think that's a better way to put it too. And I know I'm using now using strength lift Strengthening strengths numbers and stuff like that. But that is what it is and that's we say it's a mindset But really it's just kind of physics like it's just As opposed to those guys dictating what they do if I'm pass setting it's more of like a mirror shuffle You can pop a guy and make them slow down and everything and then running the ball is more just like you're putting your Will onto that you're dictating what to do. I think so I think I'm trying I'm trying to hit it in different angles. So it's almost like it's a reactionary If you're pass setting and it's more like you are proactive if you're running the ball I think that's active versus reactive. Yeah, correct. There you go. Thank you. Yes And that's why that that zone stuff that uh, those chain of hands and the staley's of the world They run a lot of naked uh bootlegs And why those Help the offensive line is because they don't have to do anything They just walk down the line the joke about what that's called is called elephants on parade Like that's that's what that's what the teaching point is. All right All right, it's bootleg here elephants on a parade because they just slide down, but it's a breather for them It's a breather. So even though they're passing the ball, they don't have to think mentally It's also that's the other thing is and especially the nfl is Defenses have gotten crazy complicated, especially the pressures And the blitzes that come or it's mentally exhausting to get it right every single time It's a little easier running the ball gives you a little more room for error If i'm passing the ball the chargers viking team yesterday on sunday It's a perfect example for this The chargers offensive line. Yes, they were fine most of the time But on all those third downs and second along Herbert was having to scramble because they couldn't sort out the blitz And but then when they run the ball, it'd be a lot easier on them And so it's kind of like that. It's like a mental thing too So it's physically tiring mentally tiring and that's why the guys that are really good at it make a lot of money Because there's like five guys that could do it That's cool Nate. So all right, let me ask you this too um We can we can quant it we can quant it we well someone's figured out how to quantitatively track the effect of pitch framing So how do we do it for running the ball and so I can make all my friends mad I I hope this sparks a I hope this sparks something where you just like start getting into it because I would love to know I it's That's the thing with it is because oh so much about running the ball is proper Like where everyone's going like it because everybody has to be on the right page Do you watch the cowboys offense or even the pagers offense actually what they've done a good job In the run game everyone goes to the right guy. So even if the guys that are lesser players They're at least a speed bump at the right spot so So but that that's what's so hard is is that coaching or is that the players? Because I watch the then I watch the bears offense align and you're like, okay Some of these players aren't bad jason peters, you know, he I mean there's 39 But you watch them like two guys are going to block into the wrong guy And so now it's a chicken and the egg thing What i'm saying is this is really hard to like figure out like what who is it is the player or the coach You can kind of start seeing who makes the similar mistakes like over and over and over as a play goes on or a game goes on But I think what it is is really Finding free runners It's like who lets up and especially in past protection who lets up the most free runners Like as far as no one's touching this guy as they come in sometimes That's planned if it's a certain protection But that's that's you have to know the rules and then running the running the ball the same thing is I guess it'd be like bodies close to back In backfield, I guess or something of that sort Yeah, and that's I want to figure it out too because there is something to run the ball and I wish I and I'm with you guys I'm a quarterback by trade. I want to chuck the ball as much as possible, but I know I know there is something to it and I've seen it just I know And it's just that human element that I want to quantify and just like you said with pitch framing It's like, oh, yeah, we figured it out and look what happened. It's like Hopefully someone can figure it out with zone runs and duo and power and all that stuff Well, I think it's interesting specifically for like I feel like the bills because I think that that's been one of the criticisms of them is that they've gone too far potentially in throwing and Maybe that's a reason we'll talk about them later on But is that something you could potentially point out as being a shortcoming in their offense is Not getting their offensive line been engaged enough via running the football Do you think that that's the legit criticism of that offense have gone too far? Yeah, it was funny because everyone was getting on the chiefs and I was like, it's happening in Buffalo too like no and no one's really talking about it and yes and no it's there I think the more the limitation came from the formations they were playing in and That they were going all 11 personnel, which teams can do with 11 personnel being three receivers Any team can do that. That's fine. I'm not saying that's bad It's more that they would detach the tight end from the formation They would treat him like another receiver if you watch the chiefs. Kelsey is basically another receiver for them Like he is not a good blocker. He's fine, but he's but he's really good at receiving. That's why you do that That's why you want him to do that stuff But with defense has got smart and go well if he's not going to be part of the formation When I say detached that means he's split out. He's not in the three-point stance or he's not near the tackle Why that matters? There's only a certain amount of run concepts you can get to There's only five or six types of concepts you can get to but you're basically taking away the options for them So now as opposed to rock paper scissors, the defense kids just go they're bringing rock every time So we're gonna go paper every time. So we you're just taking away that Uncertainty of that and that's the limitation. It's not so much. Oh, we throw the ball every single time It's just how they were doing that. They were just really leaning into these light Light formations spread formations And I think it just took away their options and I think they realized oh shoot We can't just keep living this way because defense is just go. Okay fine. We'll just let you But you run zone one more time and well four yard gain We'll let you do that We'll just let you do that because we're not going to let my homes or josh allen do their thing against us And it's really interesting because you see Noah gray on the field of a lot sunday night. You see black bell in the field of a lot sunday night It seems like maybe they real like self scouting type thing. Yes. I was fired up It was before I thought they were due after the bi-week and they did it before I think the bi-week's been two weeks and Yes, and I actually on the notes because we might talk about that game was that's actually was so encouraging for me to see Was not only they were using yeah, no gray who actually I was high on the draft I have a lot of dynasty shares. So I I needed I needed to come through I know I think he's gonna be all right. Like I liked him and he's tougher than you realize That's the thing he's smaller, but he actually was like a fullback for him. But yeah, um, but they I do I mean but when but they're using blank balance out There's a reason you're hearing those names is because they went into more they Defenses now it used to be base defense, which is 4334 That was the base defense and we see so much of it So every coach teaching their defense rules that's what they're teaching These are the base defense rules because we're facing base offices fullbacks and tight ends Then everyone went light and went receivers So all the defense has got fun and like all these blitzes and funky looks and dime personnel packages And now we're seeing this flip back where it's like, hey, we're not going to let you do any of that fancy stuff And we're just going to get to like basic tight end football and like run the ball And it's funny how it's kind of circled back where it's like They went simple to fight the complex and how the chiefs did it which I Yeah, I was freaking on it was they went under center a whole bunch of times, which Was more to help their run game. They helped what they could get to um Because certain types of runs you Telegraph if you're in the shotgun and also yes, the tight ends and the play actions and the deeper throws and it was kind of like they Really, I'm not gonna say like they listened to my podcast But they were listening to some of the the criticisms criticisms that were happening to them It was kind of funny It was like yeah, these are this is exactly what I was hoping to see under center play action and they'd use tight ends And that's what they did. Yeah, that's it's it's pretty exciting tricks I'd like to see the not just from I know a great dynasty shares But also because it's fun when the chiefs are fun. It's fun. Exactly. I know I don't I don't I don't like when it kind of like the bottom falls out I like when I like watching teams try and sort through it and try and figure out what their new way because It then it felt that not for a long joke applies to everything It's so everybody adapts players get better coaches get better coaches change players So it's like schemes get stolen schemes get adapted like and so like your little Awesome play that you're spamming for a year. Guess what everyone else saw you spam it for a year So they're good just to it. So I like watching the counterpunches that happened Right the adjustments in the the smart brains at work and I think Andy read obviously near the top of that list Brian Dable as well. We'll see what they Eventually do I want to go back something you mentioned before Nate how When watching film you can better understand context understand bad breaks understand process and teams that are in the right spots A lot of us may not have time to you know, go back and watch film and get that so Have you found any ways to kind of bridge that gap to make it where okay? I made out of time to watch these games before I bet them Is there any sort of like I don't know like shortcuts a bad word for it But like is there a way people can do it if they don't have the time to go back and watch each game? Yeah It's it's it's very hard. I would say Looking at If you were just say maybe looking at numbers that like maybe broke down the film I would say situation stuff is more maybe more important than we realize and that's it's not so much like Oh, this seems first. It's more like Okay, this seems really bad on third downs. Why? Okay, and then you kind of reverse engineer from there. This seems really bad in the red zone They haven't scored a bunch. Okay. Why and they go from there That's how a film study works for me is I'm going like So-and-so just cut seven balls. Why is that happening? Okay? And I and I'll watch the offense wherever and but I think If you want to go like a real short version NFL has actually done a great job on youtube putting just condensed games And it's like 12 to 20 minutes Honestly, they put in every relevant play and I at first I was like, oh, it's just gonna be third downs and scoring plays They put in like a bunch of like garbage plays in there that I like But actually if you want to get just a vibes for a team like those do a great job Um, but yeah, they really do like there would be games Sorry, I actually did it this morning because I I'm not going to watch jack's colds on film So I just watched the 20 minute condensed version and just You know fast forward all the way through it, but um, I would yeah, it's hard It's because I'm talking about both sides of my mouth It's like I it's all you have to put in the time, but it's I think really if you're just like kind of just getting the crib notes of film It's finding that situation stuff and it's God this is hard Because it's the short answers no There's no real shortcut because right I mean there's been plenty there's plenty of execs that have done that But it's yeah, but it's it's hard It's you just have to find like the right maybe the right twitter account that shows some stuff or yeah I know it's I wish I had a better answer, but if I did it would just be Finding if you find those types of plays where you're like this guy's a lot of drops or they're bad on this situation They're bad on this this this and that Finding the why from there and I think you can do that either through twitter searches or just going on youtube and finding Like a quick little clips going like oh, it's because they that ball got tipped Tom Brady threw the first pick because you know Ball it was unlucky thing like then you find out get your answer from there. That's watching film Yeah And I will say not to like blow you up but like listening to the podcast you do the Robert Mays That's done that for me is like it's a nice bridge not to like again You know blow sunshine if you but but like that has helped me a lot because I don't have time to do that stuff So it's nice to have resources you can utilize and people doing that work and leaning on them It's all pieces of the puzzle and that's the thing it's like even for me And that's what I actually I try to say to people. This is just my thoughts on this It's I can we can watch me and 40 coaches quarterback coaches can watch the same throw And we can have like 10 different answers right and just go like oh this guy's wrong. This guy's wrong This guy's short. I think he's too deep. I think he's perfect, you know And that's what it kind of sucks But it's like it's things you have pretty good rules and you think you're following some smart people I'm not saying me but just like like Brandon Thorne for offensive line or something Then you kind of like okay, okay I can like you said bridge gaps and find different pieces of the puzzle that work Yeah, I have a process in place if it's true for everything true for watching film and Etc. Sure. So let's talk about those bills. They're facing the Colts this week seven and a half point favorites are the bills total is 50 and a half. Let's stop at the bill's offense here because Like the word feel is weird here, but they felt they felt disjointed. They felt off For the entire year. They've had spurts. They put up huge point totals and they've won by Massive swings, but like it's felt odd. Have you gotten the same vibe from them? And if so, does it impact your short-term view long-term? They'll probably figure out like short term where you add in the bill's offense right now Well, and that's the thing is I keep I keep going. Oh, they'll figure it out. We're on week 11 It's like And that's that time's ticking, you know And usually the buy week not only just for health is so important for good coaches I would say that's when you see the good teams make the upswinks It's because they self scout and adjust and figure out what the counter punches for what they're doing are so You know, maybe with the bills, but I I do think that It's there. It's very hodgepodge right now with this offense It's I do not think they know what their weaknesses are. They're like, yeah We can't run the balls because we're doing this stuff But then it's so then they what they're like, okay They want to check this box to run the ball. So then they just go, okay We're in i formation out of nowhere And it's like that their full-back plays two plays and it's just like out of nowhere And it's just like where did that come from? So it's kind of seems disjointed and that's a team to me That seems like they're just they're trying to figure it out Which I I appreciate again. They've had some injuries like against the dolphins. I want to say Or no, I might be in the jacks. It was the jacks Um, it was uh, john uh, john feliciano was hurt and he actually was super important to what they do I was with john in oakland. He was our backup center is that He's actually better at the center stuff than mitch morces So it's when he's gone all of a sudden you bring pressures against them It's like, oh boy, like you you don't know where he's gonna help sort it out or do anything like that And that's kind of what happened. That's where injuries can come into effect. But it's I trust josh allen. I don't think yes, he has regressed I think he just had to they got they were a team at destiny last year. They really were if watching it He's breaking contain. He's throwing like 40 yard daggers balls getting tipped right to step on digs hands And it's like that's that's your year. They were a good team. Don't get me wrong I bet more on the defense with the spills team right now And I think it's more the offense is very high variance It's going to be certain teams They're going to blow out the water because they match up well and there's going to be certain teams I'll give them fit because they're going to make them matriculate down the field So I do think some of these struggles are real because I thought I would see more I'll just use the term again more counterpunch to this point But they just kind of like this is what they are and how they kind of have now gone about it as they Hodgepodge a couple new other concepts just to kind of alleviate some stress But I think this is just what they are. I think it's going to be some teams some weeks They throw up 40 and shosham being professor chaos And I think that some weeks it's just like they struggle to score seven or 10, you know, and and it's like Because running the ball does raise your bar and right now their best run is running josh allen, which is never never fun Well, so we're talking this weekend. Yeah, what's this weekend going to be? How do you see them? Do you like to match up against the Colts? I that's the thing is I talk myself into it like even with the Colts I would actually go with the Colts on this one because I just think they make the bills life hard I think the bills still win but seven and a half is not what I was really expecting to see in this game I thought it would be a couple points less The Colts match up actually very well. They play soft coverages And they're going to make they're going to make josh allen and the the bill's offense play hard football and matriculate down the field I think the flip end of that is it's really hard to bet on karson wenz It's because when I talk about high variants that that's him every single play Is he's high parents he could throw the grace though you've ever seen your entire life And then he could throw the next one that's just like oh my god You shouldn't be on the football field and I think but Colts know that I think they're why they're getting a little healthier They like to be in more tight end and heavy formations Which actually is good against the bills because the bills will run big nickel, which is five dbs Uh with or three safeties. I should say It's kind of an advantage for the offense if if you do it if you can do it throughout an entire game So it's one of those where I think they can make it ugly make it like a 21 17 type game Make it just real nickel dimey on both sides of the ball. So we're the clock just And I just think maybe jonathan taylor probably gets 27 touches But I think that's the colts game plan. I think that's what they'll do they Colts are I have no idea what to make of the colts They're just one of those teams that just every week I watch them I hate them and love them at the same time. So I've been trying to avoid Yeah, I think in most parts, but like this week actually isn't terrible. It's at seven and a half to It went past the touchdown mark and it's like, okay. I I could talk myself into that Yeah, when I checked today, uh, fandals at seven and a half places where it's seven so I'm curious what you guys think I agree with you. I mean like I think going back to the tennessee game you saw some situations where if it's a physical big team they can actually move the ball against this defense that's a big advantage buffalo has right now is The defense that might be mitigated here, especially when you've got a running back who is just unconscious at all Times like Jonathan Taylor is right now that to me be pretty scary if I were someone trying to back the bill is a seven and a half Yes, and that and I think it's gonna be a shortened game too. It's like, you know, I that's I I could see how this guy game kind of goes and if it's josh Allen might have one of those games where he goes You know like 32 or 38 because it's just they're gonna make him nickel dime But that's the thing that's basically like run the ball. So it's good That clock's gonna be going in so I think it's gonna be a very shortened game Interesting. Yeah, my numbers hate the Colts They like Buffalo by nine so I'm staying away from this game. So I'll put it that way. Yeah Yeah, no, I was just gonna throw in there like we know we know how volatile Carson wence is I think a lot of people saw the disaster that he was against Tennessee What he actually has three picks on the year Which other you know and two of them came very late in that Tennessee game I don't think that's sustainable, but You know the results haven't been terrible for that offense in terms of the turnover department Uh, again, like I said, I don't think it's sustainable. I wonder what you think Nate Yeah, I mean that's the thing is he's he's I don't either It's that he puts the ball in arms way a lot and it's I think it's a couple of gone his way so far and it's one of the I mean he He's just so frustrating man because he'll just throw some awesome throw and you're just oh, he's got it He's got to figure it out. He's comfortable and he's confident And then the next two plays will be him twirling around in the end zone and Flinging the ball up and it's like you have like a hundred starts like what do you do? Like So I think it's yeah Yeah, he's not and even when he was a rookie. He was an old rookie. It's like so I I think it's I think you're exactly right and that's why it's it's a hard game for me I've talked myself even when I was prepping for this I went back and forth on this like five times because I was like, man And that usually when I do that that means I'm not better That's a smart play for sure. So let's move to Packers and Vikings Packers to an app my favorites here total is 49 and When I was asking about like, you know Film versus numbers I kind of was talking about the Vikings because the Vikings every freaking week my numbers say, hey, bet the Vikings like They've been fine against the spread like they've covered some big numbers At times and they've played well and had close losses But like I feel like I'm beating my head against a wall My numbers specifically love the passing offense the passing defense So when you watch them Do you think that's legit or what's going on here? I do I uh as as an eye test guy I have been big big on the Vikings as well this entire year And it's been very frustrating when they just lose all these squeakers and have these tip balls and bad penalties and Dalvin cook fumbles when they're driving against the bangles like, you know Yeah, I I one of my angles has been on the Vikings because I thought they've been undervalued from a national sense I think a lot of people are just like oh same old Vikings and it's like this team's actually pretty good Like I think they're actually a good team and I've been super high on them the whole year Even with Kirk Cousins and Mike Zimmer like trying to punch each other every game Um, I think the offense and that's a good question about their passing offense I think Cousins is playing well. I think more of it too. It helps to have very good players Like Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen and KJ Osborne's played well form as well in conchlin the tight end So I think is that they have learned to adapt to more of three wide receiver 11 personnel They're not being so heavy in eye formation and all that And so they can actually drop back and pass when they need to and be operate from the shotgun a little more And I think that's kind of helped them just add another element to their offense and not be so like Oh my god, we have a bad game script. We're down 10. We're done Like because we have to run eye formation runs for the next three quarters I think it's just now they've built themselves another way to attack defenses and they do a good job But they get in the red zone. They're really fun. Like they I mean Justin Jefferson's a hell of a player I mean, he's honestly like top five receiver already Like he the stuff he does is incredible and Adam Thielen's a good player too So I think that's more what it is. They give a lot of teams issues And I think defensively they're they're all built. This is how Zimmer defenses are built They aren't very sexy on first and second down They kind of just do their thing and then on third down or second along They bring a lot of crap and they just bring stuff and it's watching the chargers on sunday It was they gave them issues where the chargers just gave up as far as trying to I was talking about being mentally This is a great example How it could be mentally tiring for an offensive line to short out protections and everything The chargers were done with it. They're like, oh my god Our guys keep getting got our running back is like blocking into our left guard knocking them off So they just did a full slide In the second half, which is just that's a the easy button It works like teams you can do it every once in a while, but defense is really good and they'll adjust to that Is but what it is is you're just kind of like going like taking a deep breath I was saying elephants operate. This is more like an aggressive version of that But that's what the chargers did. They just gave up. They're just like we're not sorting this out anymore We're just we're just going to wad it up and I don't care and But that's what that's what that's Zimmer defense can do. They just get the third down. They can just Make offenses just look like fools if they don't know if they're not smart know how to sort it out The thing is the Packers have this guy named Aaron Rodgers Who actually is pretty good at sorting that out even if his his center situation hasn't That's okay long story short. I'm betting the Vikings on this game is but is That's one of the reasons was I was like, oh, Aaron Rodgers is pretty good sorting that out But I'm like actually the Packers alliance had some issues against Blitz this year And you know, and that's that's an angle like that's that's those are that's something that could be exploited especially if they Limited them on first and second down which might be tough because a j. Dillon is a good bag It's that but that's the angle that you're going for this They get off the field on third down they control the ball and offense and they yeah And they just like keep within this game. I've been the Vikings is at home It's at Minnesota and their dogs like it's kind of an easy angle for me to go. You don't have to twist my arm much Yeah, I mean my numbers have them favored. So like I it's pretty easy for me to get on the Vikings Again, every time like when I saw my two and a half. I swear. I swear. I was like, this is the Lambo Is it I was like, why would the Vikings be favored by half a point? You know, no, it's just because a neutral field And I was like, oh, okay. Never. Oh Vikings are home dogs. Oh Empty my pockets But like every week I run my numbers and I just like throw my hands up So I'm like, okay, I guess we're going to the Vikings again this week is no different So, uh, we'll see if uh, if old Kirk can keep that up Let's move out to become a running joke on our Friday shows with shield kappadi I kept out of vikings for like five weeks in a row. It actually worked out. Okay for me though. Like yeah I mean, you said it gets the spread. They've been solid. Like it's been good. Yeah Yeah, I just if you keep losing close and you keep being an underdog Everyone kept going. Oh, so you're a vikings fan still. I'm like, I'm not I'm not this. I just like this team. I don't know They're a weird team. That's that's for sure. That's the way I phrase it for sure Let's move now to the marquis game on sunday the cowboys at the cheese cheese to an f-boy favorites here total is 56 And we talked about this a bit last or earlier. We talked about how the cheese offense made some changes Do you think the changes they made in that raiders game are sustainable? Do you think that can translate to future games or do you think that they're still Working to figure out and claw the way out of this lull I think there I think there's that first tweak the under center stuff and all that that was good to see I think we get the big week from them after their bi-week, which I still think is next week I might be wrong there, but I do think it's week 12 So I think that's where you'll see the big upswing with the chiefs. So that's this game has been I Again, it might be a stay away from me, but it's like I am I am leading more cowboys here If I were to gun to head if I were to pick one I think what the chief stuff is I think offensively they're gonna figure out. I actually wasn't even that down on them early in the season I I stood on a pedestal and I was just like you guys kidding me like are you kidding like Patrick Holmes is still Patrick Holmes They're just really unlucky like they were they stole an amulet or something and they just got bad luck like that I was convinced that that's what happened and and but the defense though Defense is going to be just I spags is a very game plan coach spags being their defense coordinator Steve Spagnola is That's why they always excel as the season goes along and then not excel but improve And then as the playoffs go along also, you're like, wow, they actually played pretty well That chiefs defense is because he's very good at maybe that game to game game plan And I think in the beginning of the years He's they're figuring out who works for them because they don't really give him a ton of talent So I think he's just like which undrafted free agent do I like this week, you know And I think that's kind of what happens and now usually he improves throughout the year because he goes Okay, this is what we do and then we're going to go from here But having said that Going against a Cowboys team that can expose their run defense for four quarters and they are fine doing it They tell him more and Dak Prescott don't get worried about the passing stats They come but they are fine run of the ball and they will do it And I think that's what this game is going to turn into is Cowboys like Zeke and Tony Pollard are going to have like 18 carries each like not really but like 12 12 touches each, you know But it's like it's one of those things where they match up. Well, they can get into base personnel And I brought that up again. It's what a base when you get into base offense Which two tight ends or a full back into tight end Is the defense is usually matched with base personnel and defense and they can't get into funky stuff Spags loves being in funky stuff. So if you make him basic and you run our strength Which is the Cowboys run game. It's like bandak, but run that run game It's kind of like a knight. You see kind of an answer coming to light You know like kind of where I would go in this game and also that pressure stuff Even if you get into I know you asked me about the chief's offense by this is the other side. I'm really excited to talk about Um is that DAC in the Cowboy DAC really but the Cowboys are aligned is fantastic against pressures And they're really really good sorting it out. That's actually what turned me into a DAC Prescott fan a couple years ago So that's Why it's like kind of those advantages the chief's defense can bring at times They don't have in this game, which is usually they're they're ace in the hole And I think on the flip side it's more like I think the chief's offense the Cowboys defense loves being a man Which is not what you want to how you want to play the chief's And but Dan Quinn's doing a good job of tweaking On some games, so I'm curious how he does it too. Like that's I know it does he play soft coverages Does he do all that or he's gonna just play what he plays? So I I'm curious how that'll break out. It might be a live bet Like as the game breaks on once I kind of see what what teams are doing Um, but I I think this chief's offense is still legitimately taught. I mean, I think they're a top three offense I really do. Um, I just think that their big up swing is still a couple weeks away Well, I think the the Cowboys thing is interesting because like they can beat you in multiple ways Which is why I've been high on them like from a futures betting perspective Because when you're talking about like individual matchups, it's hard to find that a bad a bad match for them defensively So like looking at Cowboys 10 to 1 to win at all. It's a little tempting. I'll say I I bet that yesterday I think it's 10 to why I got 9 to 1 or a plus a 50. I think I got But yeah, I I agree I think this Cowboys team has been the most impressive for me week in week out even the blow against the Broncos I wasn't as down on as other people watching that game Like this offense is ridiculous It's my it's my favorite offense in the league just because well I'm a little biased because it looks a lot like my dad's old teams because not just saying Oh, it's so good But I'm saying because more of how they run things like how it's called and how it looks It's because scott linahan or kellamore was a scott linahan guy And on top of that scott linahan was my dad's offense coordinator So it's and they use the same terminology. So for me when they do protection stuff for me It's just like, I know what they do. I'm like, it's which is great Um, but I think this team like the the tight ends are so good And now they got gallop back their wilson wasn't even playing back their fourth receiver Like they got noa brown their fifth receiver who's useful like they have two legitimate legitimate running backs Like both zeke. I was down. I thought zeke was going to fall off the cliff of the earth or face of the earth this year He looks good like legitimately good. So I I I'll echo on that He didn't he didn't spend the off season in cabo and he actually worked out So that that helps a little bit and then this defense They've just gotten performances out of players that and that's what you need Which you need to be a surprising unit you need guys to step up but not only with parson's but uh osa If you've heard the show you've heard me put your his name every single week Oh, so ozo baue from ucla their d tackle is like a legitimately good player as a rookie Of course dravon digs and then they're deep but their db is just do enough where i'm like, okay They can sustain against a good offensive unit. So it's like I really like this team. I really do It's not just star power, but it's just like the stars are playing like real efficient smart football That's that's a good team. Nate. Can I ask you about digs because he's interesting He's got a lot of interceptions, but it's giving up some big plays to what's kind of going on there Is that usual for him? Is that something that dan quinn is doing? it's a little bit Yeah, it's a little bit of what they do because They'll pass stuff off and like I guess the patriots he let one up and everyone was kind of dogging them It wasn't his job to do it Like he was supposed to let the guy go inside and the safety was supposed to help him out the safety went rogue So that could be frustrating when you watch it and Um, I think digs is kind of what you think he is he he is a home run hitter like he strike out he's swings and misses and or he's hitting it over the fence and But I do think he is around the ball But there's not a mist To make those plays you have to be around the ball like you can only get so lucky with tip tip balls coming to you Which he did that's why the numbers are crazy But I think a lot of that is because he is around it. I think he is a true long man corner I wouldn't say he is I think he's second defensive player to your voting right now Which I would I wish I could fade it Like you know because it is he has he's a good player But he's gotten lucky where the stats are incredible right now So I think that's a better way but just like everything in life. It's somewhere in between But he has improved. I still I would say he's a good corner, but I'm not saying he's the top four or five corner Like some people are anointing him right now But he can give a lot of good receivers issues But tiger kill is not a great matchup for him Uh, that's actually kind of he's a better guy that would go against a physical like a deandre hopkins Um, that's a great matchup for him the rams guys are pretty good matchups for him Like I think he would hold the zone against cup But it's like digs or a hill is actually not the greatest But he'd be good. He'd be good against like a kelsey So like bigger body receivers that he can use his length on like those types of guys is what he's good against So I think speed gives him issues and I just think sometimes he's he's boom or bust like richard shoreman was very Safe in that kind of system like he's so smart and you just put himself in plays Diggs is kind of like the opposite. He's like a little he's not as high IQ Not many corners or alpha b as smart as richard Sherman is But he's way more athletic. So that that helps compensate for it Yeah, that's fascinating Nate are there any other games on the board that interests you this week? Yeah, I uh saints plus one and a half at the eagles my my other betting angle this this year Is uh, yeah, I never seen me in I know I know I know bet I got Trevor Simeon. I know I can't believe this is what I'm doing It's this eagles team. I can't figure out. So this might be okay. Good Me neither this game. This might be the last time I do this But for a while I was betting against the eagles every week. It was pretty fun Um, I've been I've been against in the last two weeks and watched the market go against me drastically I'm one in one. Uh, I think I'm staying away from them this week, but but please continue I'm glad this is what's so funny is everyone I talk to like there's other guys are again whether I have no idea what to make of the eagles I'm like, okay. Good. I'm not the only idiot Someone out there is betting a lot of money late in the week That's probably two and a half points last week Yeah, we need a point and a half the week before. Yeah Man, so east coast betters man. There's someone someone in jersey. Someone in jersey must love them, you know Well, it's actually probably someone in china that loves him. But yeah, that's oh, yeah But the yeah, but the saints like I why I like the saints is first off defensively I think that they aren't gonna fall into what this eagles trap is and eagles are What the eagles have done is ever since alliance game. They realized hey, our running game's not that bad. We should do it And that's helped him. I think this the broncos defense Last week was a terrible matchup for them for for the broncos In the sense that I this is one of those were in the moment When I first thought I thought this and then I like didn't bet it But then afterwards it's like, why didn't I bet this because actually that would have been that that would have been the angle But of course that's gambling, right? But that's uh, but with with this eagles Uh, this eagles offense. It's a little more. I wouldn't say ecology, but uh, they'll It's rpo heavy. It's very bubbles all that side to side and then go balls down down the field This saints defense is fine with that. They they're rugged up front Like they can actually hold their own against this eagles offense a lot who are a very good offensive line So I think the the eagles lose that advantage up front. I would say lose it But it's more of a neutral fight. I think and then as far as passing the ball and actually the Saints linebackers have actually been playing really well as well And then I think it's passing the ball I think Hertz is a one and done read guy Which is fine because he's so athletic and can make plays But the saints have team speed I I think teams that don't have team speed broncos are okay But I would say the saints are actually have guys that can run with this that they can make these tackles and actually keep it Keep them on so it's not third and 12 and he gets that 14 yard scramble and it's just a dagger into the defense It's like more he gets those five yards and gets tackled and they have to punt I think it's just that's where I think the saints match up better against that on the flip side Yes, trevor simian the thing about trevor simian is he is The ball is always going to go to the right spot. So it's it's and I don't think and this eagles defense who has I think they're back in other in slay. They're back in it's not great. The linebackers aren't great. They run safe coverages a lot I think shampaitans like hell. Yeah But because they are just gonna pound away on it trevor simian is gonna hit a couple play actions If you're running the same coverage every snap against shampaitan It's a hard way to live So I bet it's mostly a shampaitan versus the eagles defense as more than a trevor simian versus the eagles defense That's what i'm betting on for them Well, we've wanted smith as good as he seemed to me the last two weeks He's he's incredible. Uh, I I had him as my receiver one going in as a rookie or in the draft I he's incredible after week one with the falcons He he just a little things he does too like not even just like dunking on sertan But he's like a great blocker and like his route running. It's like really really good Like it's he's he's already like one of my favorite players to watch in the league Just period just because he's such a fun football player. So yes. Yes. He is as good as you maybe have seen in the last couple weeks Yeah, well, I mean I I Don't consider myself. I mean I watch football, but I'm certainly not a film guy by any sense, but From watching my well now, I guess I've been one one going against the eagles the last two weeks But from watching those two games he he looks like he's getting separation from whoever whoever Yeah, and he plays big and That's the thing with him. It was that he was the outlier everyone's like oh the sizes as a size But again, this is where the film the film watching kind of fills it in Is that how he catch the ball he would extend He would and you can see it when he jumped on sertan. He's he's his hands are so good I give him a rare label which I've never given given any player that in the Scouting adage usually excellent is the top for where you go. You go like good very good excellent And then rare is like yeah, it's a once-in-a-lifetime trait you give that to it I've never seen it for I've never done it for anybody and I gave it to him for his hands Because that's how comfortable he is catching the ball even he had a couple drops in preseason but I was never worried it was because he extends for the ball and so Everything becomes more available when he catches after the ball like if he catches a slant Because he's so comfortable catching away from his body. He can run Afterwards if it's a jump ball situation, he can go high point it If it's a contested catch situation where it's really tight He can extend his arms and make himself bigger And so that was one of the things I really liked about him and also that he played Bigger like he was 170, but he played like he's 210 and just like he blocks guys They're like 30 pounds heavier than them and like actually like moves them and it's like what are you? Like why are you built like this like he doesn't it's he's the weird he's the weirdest player to watch But I love him and he yeah, I think he's going to be a star star So I'm excited. I'm glad I'm glad other people are kind of going like yeah, he's he's fun Yeah, exactly. He won the Heisman. He won the Heisman. I'm acting like he's some unherald guy No, but you know, there's plenty of people that won the Heisman and not many people do anything in the nfl Yeah, and I think it's nice that he won the Heisman because we can see just how small he is in those Nissan Heisman commercials Right. Yes, like how tiny is compared to everyone else. Yeah. Yes. I know I know I know he's oh, I know it's just It's it's fascinating. Isn't it like it's just fascinating You're like why are you strong was that definition was for him like because it especially when he's in pants and the football pants And you see how skinny his legs are right and you're like god, you have the longest calves I've ever seen in my entire life Well, the good thing with the fading the eagle strategy is you get to hedge because if they do well It's probably because of him and if they don't do well you win money So like, you know, you're you're good either way We somehow managed to check the Noah gray box the trevor simian box the early 2000s vikings box all in the same show So I I I'm having a good day today. That is Nate tights rubber would be so happy right now He'd be so proud of us. We just got to bring up like, uh, we got very like marshal yanda for him and there we go Yeah, there we go. Yeah, why tell her, you know, let's let's pull it all out That is Nate tights check about on twitter at nate underscore Tice and check out the athletic football show and the silent count sub stack as well, Nate, we appreciate the time Thank you so much and good luck with your bets week number 11. Awesome. You guys too. Thank you so much Covering the future Big thank you once again to Nate ties for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on week 11 the nfl And then I said this during the show But like again, if you're someone like me who is numbers based who Doesn't have time to watch a lot of film I I would actually advocate for listening to the athletic football show because it has helped me a lot because It gives me like I would say red flags in terms of like, okay knowing to identify spots where teams May stumble knowing where you know, some bad matchups may lie based on what the film says So I know like I don't want to seem like I'm just trying to like butter up one of our guests But like it actually has helped me in that regard in identifying weak spots because I know as a better That's one of my weak my weak points is knowing stuff like that And I think that identifying weak spots knowing how to counteract them is is a key in betting Right. I mean, I think there is A value and kind of a variety of knowledge and diversity And knowledge I mean they talked about that when he said his dad got a money ball And so he growing up as a player had a diversity of knowledge In terms of, you know playing the game of football And then you know, one of the one of the better books that I've read recently is Range by David Epstein talks about a variety of knowledge how that's How that's really useful and a diversity of skills and this actually leads to innovation And I yeah, I think you're exactly right, right? Like I'm completely building team-based models for the NFL And I know my models are pretty good because I track the air metrics on every game But that by no means means that's the end all be all for betting on football and You know, a lot of the things that Nate was talking about are things that Rob Pozzola has talked about In how he tries to evaluate things Rob's perspective is obviously a little different. He never played but He's trying to Get some of these coaching and scheme ideas into his analysis actually trying to quantify that a little bit I think Nate's talking about a lot of the same things So yeah, I mean you really do need to know as much as possible. I think You know, it's kind of it's kind of like an ensemble approach, right? Yeah, I'm trying to get enough many different perspectives, you know, trusted perspectives as possible I don't actually listen to everyone on twitter when it comes to betting on games, but Yeah, curate the best and try to get some insights Yeah, there are a lot of people twitter I'm not gonna listen to so I would agree with that for sure We do need to enlist someone for the big data bowl to figure out this rushing thing so I think what he's like I mean, I just played in high school But like as an offensive lineman you do get kind of bored pass blocking so like I don't like again I don't know how to quantify that but I'd like someone to do so because you do get kind of bored It is tiring. So I get what he's saying Like someone to find a way to quantify that just because I find it a fascination subject I just I just want to be Ben Baldwin mad at me No, I mean the good thing is he would he would have changed the url on the website because our rbs dm Is the same if it's do or don't so like the the url is the same Regardless, it's fine Yeah, well and the other thing is is you know one wondering backs make when running backs matter in the passing game that Yeah, that's an entirely different story, right? So de andre swift was getting two yards per outrun For the lines that that matters cordial Patterson is like second in the league in the hours per hour behind Debo Samuel how much how much What what's his number at? Uh, he was at like 2.8 or I don't know what was it? I tweeted it out. I don't know He was second behind Debo entering. I think last week Yeah, I could try to find it but like an Alvin Kamara as a threat out of the backfield in the passing McAfrey Yeah, yeah these things these things because passing matters. Yeah, it does. Uh, so okay, here it is He was entering two weeks ago actually Patterson at 3.4 yards per outrun as a kind of running back Like I think more than anything we should study cordial Patterson and the way he's being used because like that's the way Running back should be used like fine to do you can do that and just lean into that Yeah So let's move now into our covering the future for this show. We'll have college football on tomorrow. We're gonna have that We're gonna Cover that tomorrow flip flop for today. What do you got on the NFL side of things for this weekend? Yeah, you know, I'm I'm actually on Buffalo this week I think Buffalo is a primary Super Bowl contender And you know, Josh Allen in the past offense ranks ninth in my justice success rate not quite as good as they wore last year But I think they are I think they're a very good unit I really like what Brian Dable has done with uh with his play calling with uh, just simple stuff like throwing more early downs and only running into light boxes and so on and so forth But honestly Buffalo is is a primary Super Bowl contender for me because of the defense They've been the best in the NFL in my adjusted passing success rate Their corners have played excellent this year according to pff grades And defense is clearly Not clearly defense is more volatile than offense. And so, you know, that might not hold them up all year But when you look at both sides of the ball, uh, I think this is a really good team Uh, I'm really looking for places to bet them And, you know, really hasn't I haven't the last couple of weeks just because those spreads were so big You can see the the credit that the markets are giving to this team Um, but I do think this is the right spot because my metrics hate indianapolis Carson once in the past offense is 29th my adjusted success rate I think it's interesting that second year wide receiver michael pittman jr has been been a revelation Uh, 2.03 yards per route an excellent rate usually near the top for wide receivers in the NFL But for me, the offense has really been relying on big runs from from jonathan taylor 5.8 yards per carry is is simply unsustainable In the long run, no matter how talented he is Uh, defensive coordinators are going to figure that out And, uh, you know, they're the colts aren't much better on on defense. They're 28th when I look at adjusted passing success rate I think part of this might be the defense that they try to play I think Nate was talking about how they they play back and Uh, they're maybe willing to give you short gains for not for not, uh Giving up big plays. They're actually not much better when I look at adjusted yards per pass attempt. They're still bottom five so I think this is a good spot. I like baffle in this situation. My numbers like them by nine and a half nine nine and a half 9.3 If you only look at data from the current season, uh, it likes baffle by more than 13 points I mean, that's that. I mean when you when your primary Uh component in your model is passing success rate, like that's really going to downgrade the colts That makes sense. Yeah, and it's weird because success rate should be the one where wence grades out better because it's the implosions That Like the massive negatives that I think about at least like in my head. I think about the mass implosion I don't think about like incremental gains. I don't think about like I think about the down down being fine But then having these jamus moments where he just blows up Like has a blackout, you know, as we mentioned that that really hasn't hurt them except for the tenancy game right three picks total I think even if you just looked at his raw pick rate, you would say that's unsustainable, but we know it's karsten wence We know when a quarterback like matthew stafford has a bad half. We say oh, he went full karsten wence There's a reason we say things like this, right, right Uh, so um, anyway, I like bubble It's weird because this is a game where it's two teams that my numbers have been trying to fade all year So i'm just going to stay away and be very happy about that. I've got it by Buffalo by 6.3, but i'm just not gonna bet it like I don't have a read on great We're gonna nod his team. So i'll stay away ed is on a buffalo minus seven and a half I'm gonna talk about a game we talked about nate and i'm actually on the same side as him because i'm still good With the cheese. I think that uh, they just had a bad stretch I think that they're a very interesting team, but I'm actually even higher on the cowboys the reason I asked them about the cowboy super bowl odds is because They're actually number one of my power rankings right now And I don't know how to feel about that, but i'm not really opposed to it So i'm gonna take dallas plus two and a half against kansas city for this week at dallas again Leave my power rankings right now when I combine Priors with 2021 data They are also first if you ignore the priors and go just based on 2021 which makes sense because my numbers Like them coming into the year as well my numbers heavily weight towards passing offense, you know as years do as well The cowboys rank first there this year by number fires metrics They're also second in overall offense to the efficiency the the rushing offense been very good as well The chiefs still great out well Uh, they're sixth passing when you adjust for schedule They are fourth in overall offense and their defense has definitely been better since christ jones returned I just can't quite make them a two and a half point favorites My numbers think the cowboy should be favored here. This is the Sixth time this year my numbers have shown at least two points of value on dallas. They played Uh, this will be their tenth game And it's been the sixth time that my numbers have said to bet the cowboys and they've covered each of the previous five They were dogs twice. They won one of those games outright So this has been a full season thing where my numbers have been higher on the market than the cowboys and I've seen nothing to push back on what they're saying So I will take dallas plus two and a half here and see how things move during the week And this is not an anti kids. It's anything. This is not like. Oh, they're broken. Ba-ba-ba It's more so I just think the cowboys are really freaking good So I'm gonna bet the cowboys plus two and a half ed What are your numbers saying here about cowboys versus chiefs? My numbers have liked the chiefs against the markets All season they they like the chiefs here by four um I think partially is you know, the chiefs are still first when when you look at uh passing success rate After I make my schedule adjustments They're a little bit worse than yards for past attempt, which is also component in my model You can kind of see that in that, you know, they're taking what defenses give them Maybe maybe a little bit less so against las vegas this past weekend, but uh I don't know. I've been I've been hit or miss on on bed in Kansas City Based I haven't decided whether I'm going to do it this week. Yeah, my numbers have not been super high on them I guess but um, it's not again. It's not the turnover thing I think just people the market tends to respect them a lot and that might be Part of the reasoning why but uh cowboys plus two and a half and the cowboys tend to one to win it all Pretty tempting for me for this week That is all that we have here for today on the nfl version of covering the spread as mentioned though We are back once again tomorrow to break down college football week number 12 You can get that by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there Leave a rating and review as well because that does help us out a bunch big. Thank you to our guest for today Nate ties find him on twitter at nate underscore ties and checking out on the athletic football show and on the silent count sub stack Ed what is going on for you this week over the power rank? Yeah, i'm writing my free email newsletter Get all uh right up some games that I bet seven. They'll get saturday You can check that out at the power rank dot com And then I had neil greenberg or the washington post on the football analytics show this week It was a fun conversation You check that out at uh the football analytics show is my podcast check it out wherever you get your podcasts And you can find ed on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets this week And we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to get some college bets down for week 12 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network What's up guys, this is jordan speeth. If you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the fan dual youtube channel