 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me Dave Madden today's date is Monday the 2nd of July and the time But I just got 1155 for the summertime the big news and the last few days has been Increased or increased worries in relation to this the state of global trade and also political uncertainty in Germany So European ecumarkers are very much in the red over fear is that the heightened trade tension was between the United States and essentially the rest of the world but China and The European Union and also Canada and Mexico is actually gentle one They go to actually impact growth negatively as we saw a major sell-off in Asian equities overnight And that sell-off is actually that negative sentiment has spilled over into European sessions today Adding to the to the political uncertainty adding to the setting pressure is increased political uncertainty out of Germany Angela Merkel is head of the CDU the Christian Democratic Union and her party is in coalition with their Bavarian sister party the CS The Christian Social Union and that's headed by a politician called by Horst Seehoff Mr. Seehoff has been a very outspoken critic of Angela Merkel's Migration policy and is actually offered to resign like that could lead to the the breakup of that coalition government And sometimes even speculating it could be the beginning of the end of Angela Merkel There's been a digital digital setting pressure in European equities on account of that So take a look now at the week ahead which can be found on the news and another section of our website looking ahead at the major economic and macro events of the week coming on Wednesday, we have the PMI services figures for the year for the UK and the eurozone also the individual reports for France and Germany On Thursday, we have the the Federal Reserve minutes And this is the minutes from last month's meeting We saw the Federal Reserve hike interest rates by 0.25 percent and traders are going to be looking at these minutes Trying to ascertain how hawkish the Fed are going to be this is speculation We could have two more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year But there's also some traders believe we may only get in fact one rate hike from the Federal Reserve On Thursday, we have a couple of companies that are listed in London Which are for your figures out first one is super dry the fashion house and the second one is purple bricks The online estate agent and on Friday is when the United States intends to slap on Tariffs on 34 billion dollars worth of your 34 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports And this if you see it as a kind of ratcheting up of trade tensions And this is in part why equity markets are in the red today Because the fear is that we're getting closer and closer to give a more escalated trade dispute or possibly Into an actual an actual trade war so that that's continued to be the pressure Who knows between now and then we the situation may be resolved But for the time being those imports those levies are said to be set to be slapped on come Friday So taking a look now at some of the popular markets starting off with the first 200 Like I said, European equity markets are in the red After hitting an all-time high in May the first 200 has been in a bit of a downtrend A downtrend is defined as a series of lower lows and lower highs and what this but that's precisely what we've seen in recent weeks So after getting an all-time high here on the first 100 We saw a lower low a lower high a lower low another lower high and we're adding back down again So if you take out this low here, we if we create another lower low So keep an eye out for the recent low of seven thousand four hundred and eighty two if you go south of that We may we may see the market target this red line here at the true Moving average which comes to play at seven thousand four hundred and fifty two or perhaps even as low at this yellow line here The one hundred moving average which comes into play at seventy seven thousand four hundred and five And he moves to the upside may run into resistance in around this area at seven thousand seven hundred I think I'll be on that reason resistance may come into play at seven thousand seven hundred and forty nine It's a similar picture over in Germany that has been effectively losing ground in recent weeks But it's actually self is a bit more severe on the German market Like I said for very different trade and political reasons So if you take a look at the German market We can see that the high of June failed to take off the high of May which is a bit telling in itself And then since mid-June the market if they took the backs has been in a fairly clear and aggressive downward trend And as the markets been pushing to the downside We've seen a steady increase in negative momentum at the marketing indicator the marketing histogram So the negative move is to be confirmed by the increase in negative momentum So the seller the pressure of momentum is with the seller to the time being Keep a line of this area here We see a lot of consolidation on this region of twelve thousand one hundred and twenty three If we continue to push lower from here Because there'll be the creation of a new multi-month low We could see the market heading back down towards twelve thousand or perhaps even down as low as the Well the lows of the year really in around eleven thousand six hundred and ninety two Moves to the upside may find resistance in this area here of twelve thousand six hundred It has acted at both support and resistance in recent weeks And if it's done and if it's active as support resist and resistance recently It makes the more likely they will do in the near future And the move beyond that we will find resistance coming to play at twelve thousand seven hundred and eighty five This red line here at the eternity moving average The American markets the Dow Jones Is also It's also been selling off recently not to the same extent as it has in Europe But still things are looking looking to the downside over in the US As you can see here the dog had a multi-month high in mid-June But has been pretty much selling off very consistently ever since then and if you know apologies that that's the S&P 500 apologies for that Looking at the Dow Jones So the Dow Jones had a multi-month high in mid-June, but notice how it's been in a fairly obvious In losing ground for the past few weeks And as you can see there's been a steady a steady decline in the market Confirmed by a steady increase in negative momentum. So the Dow's pushing lower Increase in negative momentum and maximum indicator So speaking so the the bearish move is being confirmed by the steady rise in negative momentum So we may see this this negative move last Why we remain south of the turn the moving average this red line here, which comes to play at twenty four thousand three hundred ninety It's like it's likely the outlook for the Dow will remain negative The continues to push on lower from here. We can look at retesting 24,000 or perhaps even as low as this trend line here and also the rising trend line That I support from the February so it could now come into play in around 23,900 there they're about or perhaps even in low in that kind of area There's that's a keep people there for that because this trend line has acted as a support on a few occasions So it may do it again in the near future Moves at the upside on the Dow Jones may run into resistance at this line here Was where the 50-day moving average blue line on the world a moving average the airline converge this area here at twenty four thousand six hundred and Thirty nine and if you go beyond that we could be looking at retesting twenty five thousand take a look now I was going on in the gold market Gold has been not too far. Oh has been in a downward trend since April as you can see here This is a classic example of a downward trend So if you could take a look at the April high and then pushing lower here a lower low a lower high A lower low a lower high another lower low in fact the lows we saw last week We're actually fresh six month lows on the gold market negative momentum is still still remains to be high So it's not very much in a downward trend if you take out the recent low of 1246 or it's not quite the low But that area is an area for consolidation if you take out 1246 that consolidation area We could be looking any back down towards the December low of 1236 Most of the upside in gold may run into resistance at 1261 and I forgot beyond that we could look at resistance in at 1284 But was it's only when we read actually take out there that the the late June high of 1309 would then be actually look to actually be more confident the call is about to shake off the recent negative trend Sticking with the commodities team We now take a look at the oil market first one to look at is Brent crude oil and the oil market has Well, Brent crude oil is not too far away from its may highs, which were actually in fact multi-year highs Notice how the market the the Brent market as as rebounded in recent weeks as that that's been confirmed by a steady increase in positive momentum so the market is pushing higher negative positive momentum is on the increase So things are looking looking quite bullish remain to be looking quite bullish for the for Brent crude oil If you need to push on higher from there We could be looking at targeting $80 a barrel of them beyond that up towards 80 spot 89 the rating high The may high if you go beyond 80 spot 89, we could be looking at targeting 81 spot 53 Moves to the downside or any kind of pullbacks in Brent crude may find some support coming to resistance at 77 spot 5 Or this blue line here the 50 moving average at 76 spot 48 WTI is actually at a better run recently. It's actually went down on to to hit a fresh 40 43 month highs So so the the high in June as she might eat come as comfortably taken off the high in May So now we're not too far away We're off a 43 month highs on WTI which gives indication if I'll polish things are on the WTI market So the market's been pushing higher. We've seen a steady increase in positive momentum So it's like it at this upward bullish move will continue Support could come into play in around the 72 spot 79 or 72 50 area Possibly even though it's on a $70 a barrel, but if this wider upward trend continues We could be looking at targeting $75 a barrel or 76 77, you know, these are the big psychological numbers to keep an eye on for Take a look now on some of the currency markets at the euro versus the US dollar Here a dollar has been in a fairly obvious and a clear downward trend since April The market is not too far away from the multi-mode lows But ultimately it's been in a classic downward trend. We're seeing a bit of consolidation in around here The one fifth one spot 1510 area seems to be acting as a support for the time being if you manage to break below that We could be making any back down towards 114 if you could hold north of one spot 1510 is a possibility we could look at retesting this area here once by 1851 And if you go north north of that, we could be making any backup towards the 120 area And lastly taking a look at the pound versus the US dollar Similar to the euro dollar pound has been losing ground versus the US dollar since April Once again, it's been in a classic example of downward trend higher highs and higher lows For the time being if you or it's just it's just about holding up. It's holding it's holding above last Last Thursday's low, which is actually in fact a set of month low But if we do manage to take out 130 sorry one spot 3049 It could look you're taking us back down towards 130 or 129 Move to the upside in the pond versus US dollar. I could look at retesting One spot 3315 and if you go beyond that, we could be looking at tracking this area here Of one spot 3472 and then if you go beyond that the the wristless red line here the trading moving average That'd be the next hurdle to uh to overcome which comes to the play at one spot 3591 Well, that's all for me this week. Thank you very much