 Welcome to Major Week. It is the final one of the year, unfortunately, but it should be a good one because Royal St. George's historically plays really tough, even by open championship or British open standards. So I always love that. I guess based on my US Open t-shirt, you can probably figure that out. But my favorite golf courses, my favorite events are always whenever it's gonna play tough and Royal St. George's just plays tough. So it's gonna be fun. So welcome on in to the Fandall PGA Q&A for this week. I'm your host, Brandon Godulla, I'm the managing editor over at numberfire.com. I'll be talking about the field, the betting odds on Fandall Sportsbook, the daily fantasy slate on Fandall, my win simulation model, and whatever else you want because this is a Q&A format. So get those questions ready. I'll hit up the comments section on YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, or Twitch. If you do have any such questions also, as you can see here at the bottom of the screen, Aaron Dolan will be on at 430 talking NBA betting. So stick around, get those questions prepped as well. But I'm here to break down the open championship. I'm gonna start as I always do by looking at the top of the field from a betting standpoint. John Rom coming in as a heavy, heavy, heavy favorite at plus seven, 50, coming in off a seventh at the Scottish Open whenever he did lead, pretty substantially in strokes gained. Tee to green before that, US Open win before that, a barring disaster to win the memorial. So he could be entering with three straight wins. So yeah, this number is short, but that's what we're looking at with John Rom just in the best form of any golfer on the planet right now. Brooks Kepke always near the top of the odds board. I mean, I guess not always, but he's back at the top of the odds boards to come major time. Xander Shafley is always my guy, 18 to one, same as Justin Thomas. He historically has not played the open particularly well. Jordan Spieth has 18 to one. So that's a pretty nice trio there this week, but Roy McElroy 22 to one. And then Dustin Johnson is actually back up to the number one golfer in the world, 25 to one. I know the form has been a little bit iffy, but my win simulation model actually valued DJ at 25 to one. So I think he's becoming a very fair value for the week. And then we have a really strong tier after that at 30 to one and beyond, but with an open, when we're talking betting odds, we tend to get nicer returns or nicer opportunities so long as someone like John Rom doesn't win as he did, you know, Louis Stason was someone I was on after the US Open and it just didn't work out. But typically when we get an open or an open championship at any major, we get good odds on just some stellar golfers, someone like Colin Morkow making his open debut at 35 to one. That's still appealing because you don't have to have necessarily course knowledge like we do at Augusta, but it's a really strong field. And then that trickles over into Fandall from a daily fantasy standpoint where salaries get a little bit lower for golfers who are very, very good. And based on the research I've done, whenever we get a tough field, we get a little bit more top heavy results, fewer values pop up because of the sheer volume of top golfers that we have in a field. And on top of that, it's gonna play tough. It's not gonna be a birdie fest and the tougher the course, the bigger the advantage for the best golfers. That's why majors tend to separate virtually all of the best from like the sprinkle of the outliers who do show up. But we've had a lot of birdie fest on the PGA Tour lately and that's not gonna be the case by any means at Royal St. George's for this week. Now I tend to look at data golf for some shot link information depending, trying to see which of the four stats from a shot link data lead to scoring dispersion and explain how golfers separate. We don't have shot link data from the open championship. So we have to do some assumptions. We have to look at things like just driving distance, driving accuracy, scrambling. It's not ideal, but we can only do what we have access to. And we can go back through here through the leaderboard and we can look at the winning scores, 15 under, eight under, 12 under, 20 under. This is such an outlier here and I love it but I also hate it. Phil, I mean, I don't know what else you could ask for there for a showing from Phil Mickelson. But actually on number fire, I do have a detailed course primer for this week and each week moving forward. Past five winning scores at this particular course for the open, so spanning back enough years that it takes to get back to five open championships at Royal St. George's. Five under, one under, 13 under, two over and four under being the winning scores there. So not necessarily as easy to score as your typical open. Now your typical open is about nine under par for the winning score but at Royal St. George's 4.2 under par so it makes it the second most difficult venue to host the open championship since 1980. So we're looking at an even more difficult course and from a Fandall standpoint it's important to keep that in mind because this week it's gonna be less about birdies and more about avoiding bogeys and a significantly higher portion of your Fandall scoring is going to come from finishing positions. You're not really gonna have someone finish 40th but have made a ton of birdies and lose it all back with bogeys which is actually more advantageous from a fantasy standpoint. We just need the golfers to finish well and so that does put an emphasis on the best golfers which sounds so obvious but in majors it's really hard to stress that you can always look back to a major and pinpoint some of these outlier names but that's just not super predictive. We're looking at like maybe five outlier names in the top 15 out of the hundreds that are down there. So it's just you wanna make sure that you're considering balance and you're considering an opportunity cost whenever you are going way down the list. Question from Bethany, hi Bethany on YouTube. This question is for me. Rumor has it that I've not yet drafted Chris Conley and the Scott Fishbowl, that's true. My question to you is when are you going to make your move? How late is too late? I mean, Chris Conley I think I probably should have taken in the first round just to lock him up but with the quarterback situation uncertain with Houston figured I could wait a little bit more but I do have every intention of drafting Chris Conley and the Scott Fishbowl. Another question on YouTube from Clint who's your grade A value picks? So I can jump ahead to value picks I guess because I pretty much covered what I wanted to from a core standpoint, again, it's gonna play difficult. We have some longer holes. I think that's important to keep in mind but again, this information's up on numberfire.com it's sort of my wind simulations but just quickly I guess before I move on to the value plays and help explain a little bit why I like some value plays or maybe don't like too many value plays Stroke skin approach, good drive rate which is actually a fairway hit or if you miss a fairway that you still make the greener regulation greens regulation are gonna be really hard to get this week Stroke skin putting, scrambling slash stroke skinned around the green and bogey avoidance but that just adds up to driver, irons, wedges and putter which is every facet of the game but every time we get a major that kind of separates the golfers and you can, you should really take some pause looking at golfers who do have red flags in the game which is usually those value golfers but I will jump over and go over my grade A value picks for Clint. Let me jump over to my spreadsheet here and I will feature some of my favorite value names for the open championship. I'm gonna start here with, well I don't know if he's, I never know if he's Alex Noran or Alexander Noran on any of my spreadsheets so I'll go with Alex Noran. Who else am I liking this week? Robert McIntyre and I'm not alone in that he's a plus 6,500 on Fandall Sportsbook and then Lucas Herbert really came onto my radar not someone I featured in my write up on number fire but I will probably add him because Zach Johnson did it with draw and Johnson was one of the low end value plays that I liked but Noran rates out really well typically on in opens he's had a good track record at opens and he just has a really good short game which makes him someone I don't typically like to target actually hide birdies here because I'm not looking at birdies for this week but Noran typically is just not a golfer I like to target because he's really dependent on a short game, 79th percentile and adjusted around the green, 81st percentile and adjusted putting over the past calendar year according to my database it's the ball striking that is not particularly good but this week you don't necessarily have to hit your driver especially well although there are some reports that the rough is kind of problematic which is not that typical for a link style course it's usually just not heavy rough but it's probably a little bit overblown you always hear about rough being problematic but Alexander Noran also just a really good baseline golfer for a salary positive 0.6 adjusted strokes per round over the past year according to my database there and a pretty solid bogey avoider so you were getting someone who's a good bentgrass putter just good short game you're not gonna hit a ton of greens regulation and if you don't because it's gonna play that's a Justin Ray tweeted about this he tweets about all the good stats in golf but Royal St. George's I believe this is has the two of the three lowest greens in regulation ranks among all open championships since 2003 so it's typically hard to hit greens in regulation but it's especially hard at Royal St. George's so you need your guys to scramble and have those good wedges and good putter so if you're not gonna hit all the greens in regulation you gotta do that and that's why I like Alex Noran for this week Robert McIntyre again this is all PGA tour data so I tend to with guys with maybe larger European tour samples look mostly at the overall stats that I have and I will pull him up on data golf because they pull the European tour stats which is a great resource to have but McIntyre is a plus golfer over the past year he's super long off the tee and he was sixth at the open in 2019 which is the most recent one but Lucas Herbert again all these red flags here I don't think this will actually do him justice but so yeah I'm just gonna pull up Herbert and McIntyre on data golf because that's one of the shortcomings of just using PGA tour data McIntyre and Herbert I'll pull him up both do ranks over the past six months so McIntyre obviously the better choice here from that standpoint rating pretty well and adjusted off the tee according to data golf over the past six months pretty solid wedges Herbert a little more putting dependent but Herbert's recent finishes are quite strong has a fourth on the European tour last week at the Scottish Open a win before that and a two top 20s on the PGA tour so it's important for majors not to get too heavy into like European tour stats because according to data golf and according to like official world golf rankings for the most part the European tour is about as tough as the corn fairy tour and so you wouldn't overreact too much to golfers with consecutive top fives including a win on the corn fairy tour so just keep that in mind but he has been gaining strokes with the ball striking in both of those Euro tour events but also on the PGA tour so gaining strokes off the tee once adjusted for field and with approach and again we see him be a good putter so Herbert's in really good form it's kind of recent form but we did see him 31st at the US Open as well so I like that and then McIntyre himself just kind of an outlier from an odd standpoint relative to his Fandall salary but 18th at the Scottish Open, 35th at the US Open again good ball striking here that's what we're gonna see green here and tee to green we can throw on wedges there and the putter maybe not the best for him career wise but close to baseline here this season so McIntyre, Herbert's and Noren kind of have been the guys that I've been settling on most to build around it from a value standpoint comment from Bethany, Brandon you're the greatest no Bethany you are the greatest question from Robert on YouTube what about McIntyre so I just went over McIntyre I think he's a really strong play for the most part I don't think that he is well I can say for sure he's not someone I have interest in betting at 65 to one because there is this putting concern and while putting can come and go in a week you also wanna see a little bit more from the high end to really want to bet long shots I also don't really bet long shots in majors just because if you go back through the major list unsurprisingly it's the studs so McIntyre more for like a top 10 or top 20 I like but especially on Fandle with that salary of 8,500 makes a ton of sense because the tee to green game has been pretty good and the irons are have been improving to some degree question from Mr. Jackie Moon on Twitch hello everyone hope you've all had a good weekend so far so not a question but a good week so far not weekend yet unfortunately but thankfully we do get the golf a little bit early this week especially early so the weekend will feel like it comes a little bit early but hope you have a I hope you're having a good week as well Jackie Moon question from Brandon on Facebook what's your thoughts on Daniel Burger so Burger is someone I've struggled with a ton because if nobody if you haven't tuned in before I love Daniel Burger because he's a really strong statistical player and that is obviously how I get to a lot of my conclusions but Burger himself has been well he played the John Deere so he's traveling that's not something that's super typical for the top line studs this week but Burger is that right like he is that based on the past six months eighth and total stroke skiing average once adjusted for field strength really strong tee to green doesn't really have any red flags here the around the green play not ideal but definitely not too bad and we know that Burger has that ability to at least play baseline around the greens good putter, good ball striker so I like Burger you can't really argue too much with these results at a salary of 10,000 on Fandle I think it's very fair but I would probably bump him down a little bit just because of the travel and go with someone like Scotty Scheffler instead heads up even though it's a little bit scary because Burger is honestly just a fantastic golfer and always tends to outperform expectations in my win simulation model but I like Burger there is just a little bit of possibly unnecessary risk question from Mr. Jackie Moon on Twitch biggest favorite to avoid so my fade for the week is going to be Justin Thomas not necessarily because it's anything against Thomas himself it's just there are so many golfers to like that we have to rule out someone I think you could also lump in Bryson in that conversation but Bryson's betting odds are 35 to one, I believe and JT's down to 18 to one after a top 10 at the Scottish Open yeah, so 18 and 35 respectively I mean, JT rates out fine in my win simulation model but if I'm picking between the studs from a Fandall standpoint I like Xander Scheffler more and I like Jordan Spiethmore as well compared to JT JT not really a great putter on any surface and Open Championships are not really about putting what does scare me about fading him is that his wedge plays amazing but he has not historically been that great at Open Championships in the past was 11th in 2019 but just kind of middling before that so again, it's more of a I got to pick someone it's going to be JT who I just don't quite get to this week but Bryson also from a Fandall standpoint I don't particularly like although I would consider betting Bryson at 35 to one if that drops a little bit more question from Christopher on YouTube, Rom or Thomas that's Rom for me easily I know that that's kind of a safe play because Rom is such a big favorite but he's more than twice as likely to win than JT and my win simulation model Rom coming in at 8% obviously leading the field there at that number which is not enough to bet him at plus 750 but for Rom it's just the putting does separate him specifically on bent grass Rom is just a really good putter for someone who's so good T-degree just the best long-term adjusted form in the field honestly, like I said could have three straight wins entering this week so he will be chalky but I tweeted about this the most popular golfers in any of the three majors this year have been coincidentally Justin Thomas at the Masters who is around 35% on Fandall and Spieth was around 32% but those are the only two golfers who cracked a 30% popularity rate on Fandall so yes, Rom is probably going to be around 35% but that's not really that drastic all things considered there are hundreds of ways to differentiate and Rom's made cut odds are almost 85% so really the odds that John Rom has a complete dud are totally okay still playing John Rom in tournaments just probably trying to be in line with the field maybe a little bit over around 40% of my lineups might have John Rom but I would say straight up for sure John Rom question from Robert Thomas Deetree not someone I looked into I will go to Data Golf for Deetree here so let me see his recent numbers I don't like to get too into okay I can see why you asked the two runners up in recent results with the cuts so this is actually this would probably be a profile that I would point to and like screenshot and say this is what you want to be a little bit cautious of looking at results Deetree doesn't typically gain off the tee very often and overall this season just a positive point one one suggested for field strength per round off the tee and strokes gained the iron play was great the Scottish open but that's not predictive that's not necessarily going to last week to week especially from someone who is a subpar or kind of world average iron player the around the green play is going to be vital this week not one necessarily to gain with the wedges and his strong finishes would very easily be boosted by the putting specifically last week so I'm going to be out on Deetree I think that there would be a better alternatives for this week question from Clint on YouTube one standout mid range that's going to be Scotty Schaeffler for me if we can count him I think that's fine at a 9700 the real like the only concern with Schaeffler is honestly that he hasn't played in an open before but he has managed to keep his ball striking pretty strong specifically with driver while increasing his strokes gained around the green and putting actually go back to data golf because this great toward again this is free so everyone should be using this but you can filter this by the types of strokes gained so his off the tee play staying pretty level dipping a little bit lately but not much the irons dipped a bit trending back up but the around the green play really had improved since he came on to the scene and then the putting if I'm honest, yeah, he's so he's on a bit of a surge there now you want to be cautious of upswings and putting but he's also a young player and data shows that younger players are golf we should buy into these changes more with younger players than older players and Schaeffler definitely fits the the younger player vibe there so I think Schaeffler is a great play and he's just been awesome overall at majors if you look at his history he's got five straight top 20s three top 10s, two straight top 10s so I'm not really worried about too much with Scotty Schaeffler and honestly on Fandle this week the low 9,000 range does drop off a bit and I'd rather just be down in the 8,000 range so for me Schaeffler is a standout mid range play question from Chris do pairings matter if so how do you weight them when picking players I'm assuming that means like playing partners I would have to think they matter I have always been fascinated by this but I don't have enough data on it specifically playing like with Tiger Woods now playing with Bryson does that affect things we also need to make sure the samples are big enough I don't actually account for that if you're talking about pairings in terms of like player combinations on Fandle I think one specific way that you could maybe get some leverage each and every week is to pick an archetype of golfer so maybe this week driving distance or driving stats overall are a little bit open-ended but if you want to say I'm gonna play the guys who just hit it the longest and if it turns out that driving distance becomes like the overwhelming stat to target and you build a lineup or two or three that are centered on big hitters that could be a really strong way it could be that you go the other way and say if the rough is bad and distance isn't enough to get you out of the rough or make up for the penalty of missing a fairway and you go with more accurate hitters for lineups that's probably something that is long-term a little bit of a successful strategy but I would imagine playing partners do matter but I don't have any hard data on that so I can't really speak to that too much more. Question about Louie, we stays in so I love Louie pretty much every I don't know why I try to spell we stays in while talking through it I can spell it but not while I'm talking so I just got self-conscious there but Louie 30 to one someone I loved in recent majors and almost got him and don't try to wrong chase them down Louie also helped himself be chased down but the only concern really I have about Louie is just the salary of 11,100 I don't think that's necessarily enough for me but I think that's too much for me from what I see with Louie although honestly Louie we stays in in majors is not a bad bet pretty much any like any time we get Louie in a major so it's again kind of similar to JT where it's not like I see stuff in here to dislike about Louie it's more that I just prefer other golfers overall Chris did spelling partners yet so again I think that there's got to be some sort of tangible effect for really playing with really slow players playing with golfers who draw big crowds even specific it could be even Ricky Fowler who still can draw some crowds I know obviously we're gonna lose a whole year of data without crowds but playing with Ricky or playing with Phil possibly now that there's you know Tiger is not playing that could have a tangible effect but unfortunately again I don't have the data for it so I think that honestly I covered a lot that I wanted to cover I will say that my favorite DFS studs for the week are going to be John Rom because I don't think that the popularity is going to be quite so big that we have to fade him and with how consistent that that Rom is and how he does it it's just by being good everywhere I'm totally cool with Rom at the top I also love Xander Schoffley from a DFS standpoint so that's kind of where I'm starting my lineups this week with Rom, Xander and then also Patrick Cantlay who I do like I think I set up my Sims table here that's the messy version this is the cleaned up version but Cantlay is rating out as an even value for me as an outright bet at plus 3300 on Fandle Sportsbook Xander slightly positive expected value of course as I already alluded to John Rom pretty big negative just because he needs to be around 11.8% likely to win to be an even value and that's just not where I have him and then one of the most interesting names now at this point has been Dustin Johnson who is now 25 to one that's a pretty wild number for the world's number one I know that the form is not spotless by any means but we're also getting someone who I need to go Johnson here just someone who can obviously win majors and we're getting kind of a buy low on him so he missed the cut of the PGA when he had bad iron play 10th at Congary is a really weak field but this does adjust for field strength so pretty good showing there 19th at the U.S. Open a good putting poor wedge play but good ball striking 25th at the Travelers this is and I tweeted about this before either the Masters or the PGA but like major winners don't necessarily have flawless form entering we saw that with like Phil Mickelson obviously Hadaki had some question marks especially with the Potter like we see major winners not come out of nowhere but not necessarily be in it's like all top 10 leading in that's not the case so I think DJ is becoming just super, super fascinating from a betting standpoint and I would assume the sentiment on him this week is quite low from a Fando standpoint so he could be a really strong pivot for this week but with Rom and Brooks and Spieth being overvalued according to my win simulation model we see value a little bit down the board specifically with Tony Fiena he's coming off two missed cuts with poor ball striking but the long-term sample on Fiena was really, really strong he's been good it opens four straight really strong showings I believe two top 10s in there if I'm remembering right I can't get the web I think he's in quite just because I don't know how his health is Daniel Burger as someone asked me before love Daniel Burger overall and the win simulation model does love him as well at 70 to one I think it's a really strong bet I think he's a great DFS play one final question from Robert about Brian Harman before we bring on Aaron Dolan to answer questions about the NBA finals just quickly Brian Harman a name that I'm not super in on but one thing we can always check out on data golf is just his ranks compared to the official World Golf rankings really strong statistical player but the short game is kind of what's driving him overall and not necessarily gonna gain a ton of strokes with his approach play but he can do it overall so that's all the time that I have for today I'm gonna bring on Aaron Dolan and we hopefully you got had plenty of time to get your NBA questions ready for tomorrow for tomorrow's game game four between the bucks and the sun so Aaron what's up how's it going? Hey what's up how are you? Good good just obviously talking some open but excited to hear what you have to say about game four because it's been overall actually a really tight series because then the net rating for the bucks is now just a minus point too so I'm interested to hear what you have to say about the series. Yeah I'm excited for it obviously the bucks continue to surprise us as the roller coaster that they are so it's definitely gonna be a pivotal game four I'm sorry guys I just got back from Miami and I'm still low key a little bit hungover from Miami as you can hear my voice but we're gonna get to this show and we're also gonna talk some US open and smother things but thank you for holding it down for us Brandon. Absolutely best of luck. Yes thank you. All right what's up guys? I feel like it has been a while as I'm sure you saw on Twitter and on Instagram we were in Miami with our DFS players there were 75 players playing for game three so we got to watch it on a yacht which was insane in Miami with the coolest backdrop ever and of course I saw the bucks surprise us in game three per usual the roller coaster that they are they play well at home Chris Middleton always plays better at home and then we have game four coming up and they could tie the series we're gonna talk a lot about that some of the odds that are available on the Vandal Sportsbook for that for today very excited for that and then we'll also talk about minus we'll talk about the USA men's Olympic team they're gonna be playing Argentina today we have the MLB All-Star game today so there's not a full slate of games to be betting on but of course some fun things that are happening today and some later in the week and then tomorrow of course is that game four but unfortunately I won't be on tomorrow's show which is why today I'm coming on here and talking so much about it so guys fill all the comments with all the questions that you have I'll try to answer as many as possible it's Mr. Jackie Moon I feel like you're always on here thank you so much bucks helped me out I'm glad they helped you out then you said who are you leaning for the game tomorrow so we'll go through the game there's a part of me that wants to say bucks but every time I take them it never works out in my favor so I honestly wouldn't be surprised that the Suns were able to cover but the bucks did win this other one at home tied the series they're used to doing this at this point so but what scares me about the bucks as soon as they go on the road they're terrible they're a roller coaster I still think Suns win in six but why don't we get into a little bit what happened in that game three because I wrote some notes Milwaukee winning 120 to 100 bucks won their first NBA finals game since 1974 Middleton had 15 first half points Holiday had three pointers and an explosive third quarter so we finally woke up there this is where the Suns went a little disarrized the Suns missed 12 or 14 attempts from three point range in the first half PJ Tucker in Holiday bottled up Devin Booker he had 10.3 of 14 in 29 minutes so I would expect to see some type of positive regression from him I felt like on the big screen you could see how disappointed his face was and eventually by the end of this game a lot of the stars were sitting anyways it was basically a wash so we kind of have to wait and see how this upcoming game goes they could be able to take a lead the bucks by that much and have what happened happened they shot terribly but speaking of that looking at this yeah you can see here Suns 29% 9 of 31 well they weren't bad from field goals but free throws terrible 11 of 16 when originally in game one they were one of the best free throw teams in the NBA they went 25 of 26 I believe in the first game so that obviously needs to change and then having just 17 points in that second quarter that needs to change obviously the Bucks very dominant Giannis back to back 40 point games I feel like for this game they're going to try to contain it obviously so we'll talk about some of his player props because maybe we should take the under on certain things but those were kind of the little gist the notes I know as an opener walkie minus three and a half closed minus four so we're betting that up congrats on everybody who cashed on the walkie covering it doesn't happen as often as it does for the Phoenix Suns as the total was 222 and a half and then it closed 220 and there was a push it's Mr. Jackie Moon saying Crowder five plus threes interesting one interesting he obviously played well last game he was hot the entire team aside from Crowder combined for three for 24 from long range so I'm not sure if I can bet on Crowder five plus threes in this game because as you know in that first game he played so terrible but he had a great standout game but I feel like that's kind of been happening in the series there's not one consistent player that's unreal I guess you could argue that that was Giannis in the last two games of 40 plus point performance and then you had CP3 who's that first game I would say the hero of that but yeah let's go through some of the lines though for the game but actually let me just wait before we get into that this was a beautiful same game parlay they cashed for game three as you know same game parlays unique to Fandle you can find all this right now in the Fandle sports book this guy $25 down and he won over $2,000 but yeah that's great look at this Aiden he's been great over 15 and a half points Giannis over 20 or excuse me 32 and a half points I knew my glasses on Crowder Chris Paul Devin Booker Chris Middleton over two and a half made threes love it love to see it all right let's get to this game so the bucks right now laying four and a half points total at 220 and a half like I mentioned last game it was a 220 when it closed and that was a push now this opened Milwaukee minus four so it's only been bet up half a point it did open 220 and a half was bet down to 220 which is basically nothing but as you can tell we are currently at like I mentioned minus four and a half total 220 as for the money line minus 178 from Milwaukee the suns plus 150 still see good value on the suns here okay here's some trends that I found online that I think will help you Phoenix 14 and four against the spread in the last 18 games after a straight up loss 15 and three straight up in their 18 games following a straight up loss as well but for the box which is a hotter trend they are five and one against the spread in their last six home games the box play well at home which is what is going to be the biggest advantage for this game is seriously the fact that they play at home will Giannis be able to have three strike games of 40 plus points I'm not sure about that they're going to try to do something to contain him but I think the suns cannot shoot as bad as they shot in game three I truly don't they're not going to be able I mean this is terrible 29% from them they're usually better from that free throws terrible Devin Booker wasn't great obviously and speaking of that when looking at some of the futures odds let's see you can see for the NBA finals MVP Chris Paul continuing to move out of these minus 240 Giannis drops down plus 220 Devin Booker moves out to 12 to 1 after game three everybody else falls down behind him as I mentioned before on the show we were talking about this market that some of the long shots let's say like Chris Middleton drew holiday I didn't really see a chance of them being able to win this and obviously after seeing how they're playing I don't think that's going to be the case compared to Giannis so the only great value I would say in this market right now for me would be Giannis plus 220 CP3 at minus 240 that's not going to happen in my estimation we also have some other markets available that are underneath as you can see now for example in total assists we have CP3 minus 174 your holiday plus 1 of 42 just want to mention in assists that they're averaging so far in this series NBA finals CP3 is averaging nine holidays averaging eight so I kind of feel like there is some type of value right down holiday plus 142 but you know that Chris Ball is just so good at assists he's the assist god in my eyes in this series so I wouldn't be surprised if he won but the only value that would be in that market for me would be on drew holiday then you have most total rebounds Giannis is averaging 14 Aitn is averaging 13 and I feel like Aitn has been so great for this team the Suns team so a plus 186 I do like that now as for series point average so we talked about this before game one Devin Booker was actually at 28 and a half it's already down to 25 and a half and he's averaging I believe 22 points in this series already obviously that 10 points last game did not help him whatsoever somebody just commented Lopez seems to go quiet why I think that Giannis going into the game and playing this entire series so far is why he's went quiet he had that one standout game when Giannis was not in but yeah we actually had a market for Lopez series point average it was 14 and a half I believe it was bet down to 13 and a half and then it's not even on the board anymore as you can see you have Chris Paul we have Aitn again he's been great Chris Middleton and drew holidays so some of the stars have the markets available I believe Brook Lopez was up before that game one because we were unsure of Giannis's status and considering he had that great game against the Hawks when Giannis was taken out I'm sure they wanted to put those odds up to make sure that they had one of the technically stars of the box be on there but yeah so these are the ones that are available right now for the player futures as for let's see other markets outright betting sons minus 270 they move out bucks plus 200 obviously the value right here would be on the box if you think that they can get it done also you can still bet on the correct score and the series spread which continues to change the bucks plus one and a half minus 134 sons minus one and a half plus 110 we also have the total games if you think five games for me I think Phoenix wins in six plus 155 originally when I said sons in six let me see I believe that was at plus 440 when I had said that so I had better value then but as you can see there's still plus money for you guys to have all righty so that's kind of all we have on the NBA again this game is happening tomorrow oh we could go through we could go through some props actually let's do that before we get into some of the US open and things as you can see we updated our website you probably saw your app update as well so this is much more easier to look at than jumping through each individual market so Booker the fact that his 27 and a half is a little surprising to me I guess sir assuming he's going to have a standout game after those 10 points which wouldn't surprise me because you want to see positive regression 27 and a half though I don't know if I could personally take that I feel like that's a little high for him especially since he's only averaging 20 let's see 23 points five assists four rebounds a series before that in all the other games in series he was 26 points so I'm surprised it's a 27 and a half I think I like the under on that Chris Paul 21 and a half he's averaging 25 points in the series so I like the over on that then eight and I feel like he's just been great just to keep betting the over on everything for him so there's some of the player points let's see some of the match bets what do we have going on here okay heavy favorite heavy favorite I think I'd still like Middleton there but I wouldn't bet that heavy favorite again so as you know guys player rebounds player sys player threes player combos first quarter second quarter third quarter there are so many things you can bet on the final sports book as you can tell aside from some of the futures things that are in that market same game probably like I mentioned before always take advantage of this you can combine all these bets into one same game parlay put a little bit of money on it and if it hits great for you you'll be obviously cashing out on that everybody wants to cash out on a same game parlay for somebody saying what's your prediction I think that the Suns as an underdog could cover in this game there's no way that they shoot as bad as they did they'll figure out something for you honest there's no way I could see the box are such a roller coaster to me that although I know they play so well at home like this could be a situation where the Suns blow them out and I just be like yeah it's the Milwaukee box here we go again like that's the type of mentality I have with them so I think we'll be able to cover in terms of the total they kind of won Trent for the total total is 601 to the over head to head between these two teams so in the first game I know it opened to 17 and a half was better up to 219 and then we hit the over on that one it was a push in game three we had the over in game two as well so this opened to 20 and a half I think I mean the trends are saying over but if this should be a more defensive game and maybe shut down Yanis then I would say potentially more so the under but again I mean the totals aren't the most exciting things to bet on are the player performance doubles on there they should be let's see right here player performance doubles a ton of them people have been loving the player performance doubles I mean if you're looking at it just aesthetically all this plus money the only thing that's at minus money is uh Yanis have a double double and Milwaukee to win minus 128 anything else you guys can go into this market and it's not just double double I mean PJ Tucker one plus three in Milwaukee to win there's so many different things you can bet on Chris Paul 10 plus assists Phoenix to win plus 40 again just giving you an example not one that I like um yeah these are all available everything is up which is something that's really cool about these finals games since you have a few days in between you are able to kind of really go in and deep dive into some of these markets as opposed to seeing the markets become available at let's say 7am in the morning east coast time and the games being at night this way you're able to see everything already go through some of these markets and yeah kind of just get things rolling but again that game tomorrow then we have game five on Saturday game six would be next Tuesday and then still waiting team and game seven would be either way no one on either team has an NBA finals ring so that's saying something there and there's going to be history there's going to be history between either of these teams but aside from that that game happened of course and as I mentioned I got to watch Johnny out because Fanville is just the coolest company ever I cannot rave enough about that um we also had the NBA US team yesterday the Olympic team what a tragedy they've lost two straight exhibition games I don't know what's going on with them I'm a little concerned a lot of people saying they're lacking a lot of chemistry which clearly they're lacking a lot of chemistry um but as you can see right now in the Fanville sports book team USA laying 17 and a half right now the total at 183 and a half now earlier today I saw this USA minus 19 and a half so this seems to be being bet down or maybe people are backing Argentina just given that they've lost the last two games as for the total moved up a point oh there we go just changed again minus 183 let me find some of the trends for you guys on this so quickly before we move on to the US open I'm sure Brandon was holding us down with that and again any questions please drop I'm going to get to seven two minutes as soon as I find all right let's see so again like I mentioned losing consecutive exhibition games lost to Nigeria on Saturday Australia 91 83 they had an 11 point halftime lead they held Australia to just 13 points in that second quarter and still lost I feel like it's been all over the TV all day as well as of course the home run Derby which I will get to as well I mentioned it lacking chemistry and execution but you know I mean they were favored against Nigeria by 29 and a half points I mean then against Australia 17 and a half points we are now in the same situation right now where their favor 17 and a half points so I don't really have a lot of great advice on how to bet this we have two more exhibition games before they go to Tokyo we have one on Friday against Australia again and then Sunday again Spain but um Tokyo Olympics are starting July 24th for them all around things need to change we need to see better but again chemistry and all this stuff I don't know I don't know what to tell you when you have a bunch of stars playing and obviously I feel like we have a ton of shooters instead of focusing on our um height in this that kind of plays a role but we'll see how things go someone's making bank if they picked Nigeria and Australia money line yes would love to know if anybody actually cashed a ticket on that I feel like if you just put five dollars on that just out of pure let's see if this ever happens you obviously would have made a ton of money all right what else we have going on today we have the all-star game american league versus the national league everybody is talking about otani literally everyone and every sports show is talking about otani so that's really american league as you can see for the run line minus one and a half plus 152 money line minus one oh two in the total at 11 so as for this let's get through get through some um trends that I found for you guys sorry I have so many notes I have 19 pages of notes right now so I'm trying to find some of these trends that I'm mentioning so last night we will start off with the homerun derby as you know pita lanza won that back to back third player do so he had 79 74 total home runs which is the second most in a single home run derby this entire event last night 208 home runs three of which broke the record of 513 feet so tonight we have the all-star game and a lot of people again like I mentioned talking about Joey otani he's going to start for the american league he will also bat leadoff for the al he's the first hitter of the game he made history as the first mlb player to make an all-star team is both a hitter and a pitcher he'll be going off against or excuse me facing mac scherzer in terms of money line I can mention the national league is favored which might be a little surprising to some people given that the al team has won the last seven games 19 three and one in the last 23 overall to be exact the total open 10 and a half has been fed up as for a trend here 19 three and one last 23 games overall to be exact 11 and 3 in the mlb all-star games dating back to 2006 in terms of hitting the under so a little surprising that's being bet up and a little surprising that the american league is an underdog basically not really I mean they're minus one or two compared to minus 116 but all around all the trends are screaming towards the under and the al to win it's Mr. Jack mean saying I had too much faith in him last night I know he got knocked out it was a great night if you were taking the underdogs in the home run derby for sure and I'm obviously everybody gets amped up for that it's weird not having mlb games I was actually just talking to my team today like no nba games no wnba games um you don't have a full slate of mlb it's kind of like that lol time I feel like in the summer in the middle of july where before the olympics things are kind of a little bit quiet obviously the all-star game is fun it's it's just not but you can't really like I don't know there's not as many trends I feel like that you can follow as opposed to talking about some other games um but yeah I feel like there's also some other things uh that we can get to so for the nl the Padre short staff for nanotatiste he will be in he'll be joined by Juan Soto mextures are pitching like I mentioned brave star Ronald cunha junior he will not be playing this after he suffered that knee injury and jacob dugram will not be playing woodruff will not be playing and galsman they'll be missing the game so there are some people in terms of the nl that won't be in it um but yeah you can bet into this game there's a ton of different things same game parley innings first half hit and run so many different things you can bet on for this let's close this out remove um but yeah the other thing that I wanted to mention obviously which I burned it on before is for the open this exciting last major of the year John Rom obviously a clear favorite year plus 750 then you have kept get 16 to one zander shawfully 18 to one the same as JT and then Jordan speed 18 18 to one as well we're a macroi 22 to one as we know last year when this was in Ireland he missed the cut that was pretty devastating especially considering he was from Ireland but as I mentioned last major of the season this will be the 15th time that these players will play on this course um first time since 2011 when Darren Clark won the major title Phil Mickelson and John Rom obviously they won the US PGA and the US Open just obviously wanted to mention that they'll be playing um Hadiki Matsuyama will not be playing master champion he was forced catch withdrawal after contracting COVID-19 so that's not good to hear there um but as for this course it is a par 70 and from what I've been reading you should definitely be checking up on the weather um it seems like it's a really tough course based on a lot of the bunkers and where I think the holes are placed um I also read that the fairways are very wide rough green depending on if it's raining um and that it's not going to be something where these players are shooting way under there's only one player Greg Norman that was able to record a double digit winning score of 13 under back in 1993 on this course so it really does depend on conditions so I'd kind of wait to bet on some of these markets until tomorrow um obviously live betting golf is the best way to go if you're able to do that um but yeah as for some of these top players so John Rom he's the favorite as I mentioned he won the U.S. Open and had a solid ball striking week in Scotland as for Brooks Kepke a lot of people talking about him he had three top 10 finishes in the past four open championships he's finished inside the top five and three the last four starts including second of the PGA championship and fourth with the U.S. Open he's the only player this is kind of an advantage for him um they got his start on the European tour so that gives him a little bit of exposure to some of these greens so that'll help him against some of their Americans uh some other things that have been reading in terms of some random players we're going to throw out here Mark Leishman he's a long shot he finished six or better in three of the last six open starts reason I'm mentioning this it's because it makes a lot of sense for this open to kind of look at the tour players that don't really play like for example all these top guys like John Rom let's say even Xander JT and all these guys if they haven't been playing on these types in these types of conditions I would look at somebody who's done really well on this course or somebody obviously who's playing in the European tour like we I just mentioned with Brooks Keppler getting his start there um that'll help you kind of produce good results and looking at who did well in the previous years in my eyes as opposed to just who's the best in the world right now whoever hits the ball the longest it seems like is going to be the one that wins the open so exciting stuff there some other guys Jordan Spieth start the tournament never miss the cut in seven attempts he also has three top ten finishes during that stretch um Bryce Ndishan bow his best finish in the open was tied 51st in 2018 so this is what I mean by some of the top guys have either missed the cut um or x, y and z but get the open going on that starts Thursday tomorrow guys we have game four in the NBA tonight we had the MLB all-star game and then on top of that we also have USA men's Olympic team playing all these odds right now available on the Fandals sports book thank you guys for joining today unfortunately I won't be on the rest of the week but I'll be back on starting Monday of next week so I'll see you guys then