 Right, that's one o'clock UK time and we are going to get going here in just a second. Okay. If you can hear me now and clear, if you could type a Y in the chat box and you can see my Tick Mill welcome screen, just let me know that we are good to go. Before we jump into today's content, as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly for today's discussion is the views expressed by me are solely mine and they're not representative of or indicative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe. For those of you here for first time brief introduction to myself. My name is Patrick Manley after I graduated from university I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues, I went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup post a merger late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets. So this is around me in 2005 so some capital to play with in some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 and off some beginners early run out. I ultimately took a significant six figure financial hit from basically averaging down into losing positions was my, my strategy at that stage. So I really had to step back from the markets and decide whether or not it was feasible to me to make a living from the markets so I decided to seek out a mentor someone who had demonstrated an excellence trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years it was a time during which I it's not just my technical game in terms of developing and researching strategies extensively back and forward testing them. And underpinning them with a rigorous with management approach but I guess most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the critical watershed shift for me was migrating from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean well it means I had to step back and stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process oriented and have a professional trading mindset and you understand that the true nature of trading is simply a numbers game in which you are playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades my focus is on the next hundred trades. So I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008 from 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through managed account service, delivering annual positive returns I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. From 2010 I've personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. For the years I've consulted numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content webinars and live presentations on a range of topics for market analysis, trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring I'm also resident market expert for TickMail providing daily market analysis, a daily market outlook, which you can access through the blog you can also put your email in there and you can get these updates delivered directly to your inbox. Now there I guess passion projects is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called fxcreoswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talents and fxcreoswap we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, but we also work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing the capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those that are interested, you can call the trade desk in London, and they will provide further information about what it is we do at Creoswap. Alternatively drop the team an email and they'll come back to you with additional information about fxcreoswap. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Now let's jump into charts today and see where you might find some opportunity. We'll start with the dollar yuan, the Chinese yuan. The reason why I pulled this chart up is I wanted to just do a little bit of education stuff here at the beginning. I want to get questions about identifying whether or not we're whether we're in impulsive or corrective phases in the market. And to my mind, the easiest way of identifying the phase we're at is by understanding the nature of swing cycles within the markets. What you will find is that there are harmonic rotations that occur over and over again. Now, do they occur every time? No, and we don't need them to occur every time for them to provide useful and actionable information. If we think in terms of impulse legs, more often than not, we're going to find in terms of an impulse is we should see 5, 7, 9, 11 or 13 swings. And you don't need to sit around counting these things. What you want to be watching for is divergence. And what I use for divergence is this psych indicator, which is a sensibly an enhanced RSI that just gives better information than the standard RSI. But what you're looking for in terms of when you're, if you're looking to trade a correction versus an impulse, you just want to really what you want to be able to do is pull up the chart and see if versus the current swing high or current swing low. First of all, obviously, have we been moving from the upper left to the lower right or the lower left to the upper right? That gives you an idea of the current trend move that we're in. So in this instance, we're looking at moving from the upper left to the lower right here. And note that on this low we have just printed, we haven't actually got divergence. So the psych indicator made a new low into this low swing here. So then we want to think if we're thinking in terms of these harmonic swings, well, from the high, we can count one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. To complete this pattern, what we'd anticipate is a minimum of another down swing to give us a nine count rotation to the downside, which doesn't mean that we have to, you know, make massive new lows here, but certainly you can see support. If we make another low here in this cycle into this support, take out the prior low, and at that juncture, we've got significant divergence, divergence, and which we can see is potentially setting up here. So we're just looking really for price to make a new low, but the psych indicator to not make a new low. So maybe it does something like this. Or jigs around here, but doesn't make a new low. So then we've got divergence, and we've got a cycle count that suggests that we've seen an impulse move. So we've got to think about corrective cycles, and the core corrective cycles we're looking at are swings of three or seven swings. Now, when I say three swings, what I'm generally talking about when we talk about corrections is this type of move. I'm looking for an equality objective. So if we have, if we make this low here and we've got the divergence, then what we'd look for is an impulse move, a correction, and then another impulse move. And more often than not, what we're looking for is for that is for an equal legs objective. Okay, now one, if we get a, if we get a confirmation here, let's say we get a bearish reversal pattern, or we just enter the trade at the equal legs if that's how we decide to trade the strategy. What we want to make sure of is that by the time we retrace 50% of the last leg. By the time we get into the 50% retracement, this position needs to be risk-free, and why is that? Well, there is always the potential, and this is, again, you know, the nature of trading, we're dealing in an ambiguous environment, we don't know for certain what's going to happen next, we're just applying the probabilities. So if we pull back here, what there is the potential for is that we actually get a double correction. And so double correction would mean that we are going to see a seven swing pattern. So we'd be anticipating this type of move. Still corrective. So we have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. So we get a double correction. Now within these swings, we can see, we can see. Yeah, guys, if, just sorry, with respect to the questions, if you can just hold those to the end, I'll open up a Q&A at the end and you can either type it into the chat box, or I can unmute your mic, etc. It's just I keep getting, I get alerts during the presentation and it's a bit distracting. So if you can just make a note of your questions, and then I'll open up a Q&A at the end and you can chime in. Thanks very much. So going back to the patterns. So what we're looking for is, by the time we get into the 50% retracement here, we should make new lows if the correction is complete. If we hold the 50% here more often than not, not every time, but more often than not, we'll see a double corrected pattern play out. And so we should see a seven swing scenario develop. And more often than not, when we see the seven swing, we'll be looking at trading into the 50, 61.8 or even the 78.6% retracement, but that would still be a corrective pattern if this is an impulse leg to the downside. And so what are we trying to, what am I saying here? Well, what we're ultimately saying is that if this impulse leg is valid and the corrective cycle plays out either in three or seven swings. On occasion, rarely though, you can get an 11 swing cycle that can still be corrected. More often than not, you can see three or seven. And so what you're looking for is, once you see that, that's this pattern play out, and you get the, you know, you get a reversal signal versus however you enter, how you define your entry strategy. Once you get that, then what you're ultimately looking for is at least, one second, you're at least looking then for a 50% correction in three waves, more often than not. This scenario into the 50 to 61.8% retracement, that would be your minimum target up playing the playing this corrective pattern. Because again, what can occur then is we get a bigger correction here on a higher degree timeframe. I'm well before our chart here, let's say maybe on the daily now, and we could equally, we could then see another extension to the upside which could still be corrective, or we're going to get into this area, and we're going to see, or we should then see more often than not, we'll get an impulse leg to the downside to take out the prior loads. Does that make sense? You could type a Y in the chat box if you're following along. Okay, good stuff. So this is just, these patterns play out over and over again, and they play out on all timeframes. There's a lot of fractal in nature. So you really just want to have in mind, when you're looking at the chart, you know, when you open up a chart and you're looking for an opportunity, have I got divergence on the last swing low or swing high? If I have divergence, can I characterize the pattern as impulsive? So can I see, can I eyeball 5, 7, 9, 11 or 13 swing cycle? So then high probability that you've got an impulse pattern from pleasing, and then you should be looking to play a minimum a three-way corrective pattern. And if we're playing the three-way corrective pattern, the minimum retracement we should be looking for in terms of fibs, so fibbing from the high to the low, wherever that low is, is a 23.6% to 38.2%. And the minimum expectation for a corrective pattern to play out to. And more often than not, where we stall out the 38.2% or the 23.6%, and we don't make new lows, then that tells us we're probably going to be seeing a double corrective pattern. And that's, I hope that helps just to clarify how to, how to get a better set, without getting into the, you know, the nitty-gritty of Elliott waves and having to number and label everything. If you just think in terms of swing cycles, and remember those numbers, then that's an easy way for you to establish, are we in an impulse phase or are we in a corrective phase? And that information obviously then feeding to your trading setups and how you, how you manage your trades. But remember, when you're playing the corrective patterns, you want to be risk free by the time you're retesting 50% of the prior swing. That's just some good trade management tactics to employ. Right, let's, let's remove the drawings from here. Let's, let's take a look around some of these charts and see what we've got developing. So this is the S&P 500. And from this low here, we have now got one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, a seven swing cycle with divergence. And so we're now putting in a corrective pattern. So the initial impulse move off the low, how do we get a good way of also thinking in terms of impulse moves to the downside, have we broken the prior support zone? So the prior support zone for the here was clearly this 41-28, we sliced through that. And so that now suggests we've got the first leg of what is potentially going to be a three-way corrected pattern in play. So we've got the corrective back into the draw this in here. So we've got back into the 61.8% retracement zone, double top roll over. So what we, there are two, two things we're expecting to occur here now or two potential scenarios that give us, give us opportunity. So we're either going to be doing a straight three-way corrected move here. And then we're going to move into the equality objective. So when I talk about the equality objective, what I'm talking about is this scenario here. So immediately we've got a downside target in terms of the S&P here, 39-68 back into these price-wing highs. So that would be a natural area for a correction to complete. We're in a seasonally weak period for the S&P. Particularly profitable in terms of the upside, but pay attention, June does tend to be. So if we've got a pattern here, if this pattern played out and we take out these, this low, the prior lows, then we'd be looking to this zone as to act as support. So we'd be looking for bullish reversal patterns set long positions. And ultimately we'd be looking then for the S&P to make new highs. Now, is it always going to be that simple? Well, let's see, because what we could be doing is we could have a more complex corrected pattern developing here. So we could see this scenario. So we have this move, which plays equal legs here, and then we get the equal legs to the downside. So just thinking in terms of those swings that I just talked about, this would be a normal corrective scenario. Equally, what we want to pay attention to is if we take out these lows, then we're closely going to be watching the equal legs here and looking for support down into this zone. So what we get with this, being able to understand these swing patterns is we can identify or see where the high probability next trade locations are setting up. So for now, we're in kind of in no man's land here at the moment, and we could equally what we can see play out is we can see a three wave corrective move here and then see that low before completing the equal legs before taking off again to the upside. So we, at the moment, the focus whilst we hold resistance here at 41 85 high probability scenario is that we're going to get a test down into that quality objective. Let me just draw in using the trim base tool. So our downside objective at the moment is 3980. And certainly if we get down into this area, these prior highs, this will be a natural logical area see bullish reversal patterns to set long positions. Similar story here in the down. Spring this in here. So we have a B and we have a C objective now down at 32 17. Now, I would necessarily going to go there in a straight line, more often than not we're not. So we could see this type of scenario develop and then get down to this area. And then we can realign with the with the dominant trend. And the reason why we're interested in that is because we didn't really see significant divergence into this prior high. So that suggests that this is a wave three high, and we're just simply carving out an interim way for base here before we extend to the upside again. And what also what you want to be thinking about in terms of trade location you really want to stay out of the middle of these ranges this is where you're more likely to get chopped about what you want to be thinking about is trading these extremes so trading the equality objectives. I'm watching how price responds at those equality objectives because that's where you tend to see the better trading opportunities develop. So let's look at the Nikkei. So the Nikkei is is the weakest really of the indexes at the moment what we have here is potentially just like we were just talking about double correction. That's another swing here like so like so and then another leg to the downside. What we want to see here is we're trading into this this would have been the equal legs objective and we did get an initial bounce here but now trading down into the sport so so I think we I think we still got a bit more work to do on the downside in terms of the Nikkei and that would fit with the idea with respect to the S&P having having a little bit more to do on the downside as well. Pay attention to this this resistance zone here whilst we hold that I think we can see another leg to the downside in terms of the Nikkei dollar index. So the dollar index looks like it's it's putting in. Well, here we go. So this is a prime example. So we've got on that last level we've got divergence so where where are we in terms of the swings 12345678910111213. So 13 swing cycle into support with divergence. So then my reasonable expectation now is that we are going to see a corrective phase play out before we likely trade lower in terms of the dollar index so I'm watching. So what we want to, as we pull back here what we're ideally looking for now is to hold this zone as support set up the first equal legs objective then we likely pull back. So then what we're looking for is that either three four or five or seven seven swing correction before we realign with major trends and likely head low. You know working example of what we've just been talking about in terms of terms of the cycles. The first thing to note is the divergence. Gold looks like it's impulsive to the upside. We've got a bit of divergence here into that last high so we've got 123456789101111 swing. So what we've, what we've reasonably expect now with the divergence is a three way corrective move and the first part of the call I think will be the seven trend line support. If we get bullish reversal patterns there then the opportunities on the long side in gold to extend higher and what you'd be looking for then is a new high pullback and another high so you get that 13 swing to the upside and then we likely see another correction in either three or seven swings. We've got silver. Again, what have we got here 1234567891011, likely three wave pullback we've got versus this swing high 2824 we look for 2682 and then we look for new highs in terms of silver crude oil bit more of a sideways market here. The seven line support we back tested it from below and we're seeing some weakness here so what we'd be looking for now is the objective so three wave pattern would actually put us down as the 59 area as we hold 6398 resistance. So what we've got here from this swing low 1234567891011, you could probably even get 30, you could probably put in a 13 count there, and we have divergence. So we've got 123456 I'm looking for a seven swing pattern here to test back into the 450 area before again then thinking about certainly retesting, if not taking out the prior highs. I'm correcting obviously divergence. And so what we're looking for 123456 looking for another low here to complete either the first leg of a bigger corrected pattern, or we're going to complete the correction in seven swings, and then we can start and we can think about, certainly getting into 50% of this original decline here. So back up into 2,566. And if you get through there then we can start thinking about new highs and actually the corrective cycle, ultimately being complete. Similar story here can see the divergence 12345678910111213 easily count 13 swings to the downside there, got the divergence so what can we reasonably expect. Well, if we apply the. So initially we'd look for a test of 1979. If we can take out these prior highs, and then we'd be thinking either a correction to play out in three or seven swings or potentially 11 before we see another attempt to the downsize. I think we're probably incorrect. Well, we've got divergence versus the last high here 1234567891011, and then we're looking for at least a three way correction. So most likely we'll see a seven, a seven swing pattern here because of the students of the decline that we've seen. So watching for the loony to hold rate support now somewhere in the 12050 would be an opportunity to get it on the long side and initially obviously paying for the equal legs 12250. The price patterns I'm drawing here obviously I don't know for fact that these are going to play out but more likely than not if we get a pullback that holds this so I know that we've got a high probability of seeing an equal legs correction play out. Euro. The Euro divergence. What's the cat 12345678910111213 into the high divergence. So what am I expecting. Well, I can reasonably expect at least a three wave and potentially a seven swing correct pattern as we hold this high here. Euro yen. Similar story divergence into the high. So what I'm looking for here would be a break of the trend line to to initiate an impulse leg, and then we'd be anticipating at least three wave corrective move to play out. So we had I showed this one group yesterday. So we had this cycle here 12345678910111213 swing bags of divergence, and then we had this initial move off the lows. So we measure this leg here versus the swing low here, and we traded up pretty much to the tip 48148 and that 50% retracement. And so, so we're looking now for least a test of the 50% retracement here. And, and then we could see another we either from that. Now they hold the 50% zone 561.8%. If we do, then we know the high probability is that we're going to see a seven swing pattern play out before we attend you lows sterling a little bit more complex here so stick just the wedge pattern with divergence always a high probability scenario. So I'm anticipating we get a pullback here in sterling into maybe the 141 60 area. I've got an order to sell sterling at 141 and I'm looking for a three wave corrective move probably back into three or seven swing back into the 50% retracement of this, this wedge is what I've been looking for there. Again, check this we're taking out the resistance now bags of divergence so just looking for that first pullback as an opportunity to get in on the short side, and you obviously they were targeting that either three way with that seven swing pattern in terms of sterling again, sterling CAD. So we've got a impulse move to the downside, what we're looking for here is a correction so through this 171 50 area, we can look for 172 59 as an upside objective so that would be the equal legs ABC corrective pattern versus this last impulsive decline with divergence in the conscious of time here let me just see Swiss yen. One more. So getting into that wedge with divergence breakdown retest the wedge from below. So if we can get once we get through these prior lows then we then we can start to think about an equal legs objective. So we at least anticipate a move down to test 120 30, 120 13 as a support in the in the Swiss yen here. So that's a whistle stop tour of some of these setups that I'm watching at the moment. The swing cycles that I've identified will help you in terms of being able to, you know, to open up a chart pretty quickly and identify whether or not there's a near term opportunity. The highest probability in terms of trading is trading corrections versus an impulse to align yourself with the trend so understanding the natural harmonic rotations in the market should help you improve your trade location and entry. So with that said, are there any questions. Thank you for your question and ending the chat box is just as useful to me so I know we're all on the same page. Q&A box. Can you show analysis of gold gold. Yeah. I'm looking for a three wave correction now to ultimately test 1830 and then maybe we see another leg to the upside dollar CAD on the daily timeframe. So I mean was, you know, until we take out this trend line of the dollar CAD at now currently at 124. So it's really on the downside in terms of the dollar caddy and clearly see channel here 1234567891011 no divergence so what does that mean well more likely than not means that we've got to see a 13 swing complete. So we might see pop up here back into the prior lows, but then ultimately we should see another legs the downside before we see a more significant corrected move. So because we need we want to see divergence on the on the low for we can start to think current impulse is is complete. Okay, any other questions. Okay, if there are any questions guys, I'm going to wrap this one up here I hope it's been been useful for you. And we will reconvene at the same time next week and in the intro. Have a great weekend. All the best. Thanks very much.