 The one thing I did today that I haven't done in years, and absolute years, I didn't put on a single trade today. Not one. Not one. I looked at the market this morning. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, getting everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Another foot of snow here in northeast just doesn't end. Just absolutely doesn't end. Crazy stuff. I mean, absolutely crazy weather. So let's talk about this last night. There wasn't a video. I had an issue with my internet last night. God knows what happens there. Maybe it's because of storms and freezing. Who knows. So instead of taking off tonight that I usually do kind of share my thoughts of what's going on here. I think we're in something that if you've been watching this broadcast, something happens once, once a quarter, pretty much three, four times a year. And it's something called distribution. And distribution is probably one of the ugliest words in the traders vocabulary because there are no winners in distribution. And what I mean by that is when you have a market that's very, very strong and we've been having an incredibly, incredibly strong market, okay. It's very important to understand that there is something called a buyer strike and buyer strikes happen when traders get very, very tired. And that's exactly what we saw two, three days ago. At the same time, you have a lot of names that didn't rally. For most part the whole technology mega cap sector just has not rallied, right. The Teslas of the world, if we had plenty of pivots to the downside on Tesla in the last week or so, that's been very weak on Netflix. You've been kind of hearing me talk about this nonstop Facebook and Apple, they just can't rally, okay. But what's been keeping up the NASDAQ 100, especially the Qs have been the semiconductors, the Intel's of the world and the videos of the world, you know, semis, a lot of the biotechs have been holding up. So there's really not anything out there that you're gonna turn around and say, this is a five alarm fire, sell everything that you have, we're going low. It's not even close to that, okay. And what's happening right now is there's a battle of who's trying to win control, right. Who's trying to win control of market sentiment, the bulls of the bears. And a lot of you guys are probably saying to yourself, well, I have no idea what you're talking about. Well, let me ask you a question. When you traded today, have you noticed two things? Well, maybe, maybe you didn't, maybe you didn't. But two things happened today. Number one, there wasn't enough fear this morning when the futures gap down 200 points to get the market to go lower, right. You notice that? And at the same time, there wasn't any very, very big, any type of aggression to get the market higher. And that's what's called distribution, right. And I've used this analogy over the, so many times picture, you know, two people sitting in a phone booth and all they're doing is having a fight. Think about how much room you have in the phone booth. It's like this. And all you're doing is having a fight. Nobody is hurting anybody. Nobody's taking control of the fight, but it's annoying, right. It's absolutely annoying. And last night, I tweeted out and I looked at so many charts last night and I said to myself, tomorrow, which is last night, it's gonna be a major job factor. Because again, when you have no definitive view of who's in control of the market and you're going to have an incredible amounts of indecisiveness, what's gonna happen is all those channels that we're expanding, right. For weeks and weeks and months and months and we've been really spoiled. I mean, incredibly spoiled for a long, long time, you know, two, five, seven, 12 pivots a day. Everything's going crazy. Oh my God, God forbid you should sell us too soon. Don't worry, there'll be another pivot to take its place. And what happens is when there's a buyer strike and we go into this kind of period of lethargic consolidation or distribution, there's no winners. There's people sitting there and they're buying their positions and they're only going up a little bit and they come back down. And you see those people in the morning and the future's going down. Oh, that's it, this market sucks. This market's gonna collapse. That's the top, right? That was the top. We're gonna go lower. They get short at the bottom of the channel. Next thing you know, you have a big, big run. That's exactly what happens in a distribution cycle. And unfortunately, most people can't identify it because they haven't traded long enough to figure out what a distribution cycle looks like. But again, if you look at your trades today or look at even stocks that were very, very weak this morning, you'll find out two things happen. The strong stocks today that were strong in the morning, they got sold. The weak stocks that were getting hit really, really aggressively for the first hour of the day. They looked like they were really about a day away from getting their heads chopped off. They kind of rallied very, very aggressively off the bottom. And that's kind of where we are, right? You had a three-day back test or actually a two-day back test into this rise in support of the Qs. We held nicely so there's nothing technically that we're talking about right now that should raise a lot of concerns because that's what distribution is. We don't know yet, okay? We don't know who's gonna take control of the next interval. And the one thing I did today that I haven't done in years and absolute years, I didn't put on a single trade today. Not one. Not one. I looked at the market this morning. We talked about it at morning strategy. There was just, for me, there was no value. Yes, there were pivots, smaller cap pivots that did very, very well. We'll talk about the pivots in a second. Even Amazon woke up. But at the time that Amazon woke up, I was already kind of disconnected because again, I was confused. I couldn't make heads and tails in the middle of the day what the market actually does. And that's okay. And I'm fine with that. The problem is when you're sitting there and 15, 20 years ago, I would have sat there and I would have been trying to squeeze water out of a rock and really try to figure out, right? There's a market, there's opportunity everywhere. No, there's not, okay? Think about this, 20,000 stocks out there, they're all moving, right? Every stock is moving. The problem is every stock is not tradable. And out of those 20,000 stocks that are quote unquote moving, your job is to probably identify two to five stocks a day. Think about that. Think about out of all of the universe of stocks and all the publicly traded companies on the New York, the Nasdaq, the AmEx, I hell, even the over-the-counter market. Think about all the stocks that are trading out there. And if you are lucky and if you do your homework and you do your research on a normal market, on a normal tape, you're gonna figure out that there's one or two plays that are really, really good. Well, when I entered today's session, we started morning strategy, I turned around and I go, this is probably the least amount of value, okay? That I've probably seen in the last several years. Usually when you turn around and you see a really good tape, you'll see all beta, right? All beta on the watch list, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, NVIDIA, everything. Doesn't make a difference which one you take. They all should be good as long as they confirm when the market goes lower, there's a lot of stocks breaking down and we didn't get any of that. We get absolutely none of that at all. And if this was 15, 20 years ago, I would have tried to squeeze water out of a rock, I would have put on five positions, I would have got completely, quote unquote, chopped up because again, I have no idea what distribution is. Nobody knows what distribution is for your first several years. You've never been exposed to it. You've even been exposed to a really aggressive rabid bull market. Or you've been kind of in this situation that you're still timid in the market, you're still getting your feet wet, you're still wet behind the ears, nothing makes sense to you. So you're not really exposed to what the distribution channel with the ugliness of this potential scenario could cause. But 15, 20 years ago, myself, my friends, anybody who traded, we don't know this stuff, we would have traded two, three days, we would have got mentally frustrated, we would quote unquote, chopped ourselves up, right? AKA distribution. And by the time that an expansion day was gonna come, and we didn't know the difference between contractions and expansion, but by the time an expansion day was going to come, we were so burnt out, we were so mentally frustrated because again, for us, every single day looked exactly the same. So by the time we got into a premium day, we were so fried, it took us an extra week to try to figure out, hey, the market's back normal. And that's kind of what we try to illustrate and kind of convey the message every single day. Again, you don't need to learn by yourself. You don't need to sit there and try to figure out what's happening. Learn from other people's mistakes. Learn from other people's experiences. So for all you guys who are in the webinar, they're a year, two years, three years in this business, you don't need to figure out this on your own. I'm telling you what's happening. And the greatest part about what we saw today, we knew it was coming, right? You could tell right away, based on the previous night research, 90% of the time, what type of value you're going to have in the day. And there's something that people turn around on, especially on social media and turn around and say, well, cash is a position, you gotta sit on your hands. No, that's a crutch, right? That's usually a crutch reserve when the market's going down and people are unsure how to navigate a market that's collapsing and there's technical damage and all that stuff. And they use that crutch and say cash is a position, sit on your hands. Yeah, that's great, that's phenomenal. But again, like we talk about all the time, market gods gave you two opportunities to trade the market, both along and the short side. The only time that is true of some sort of degree is when a market that can't figure out what it's doing. So there's again, there's a big difference between a market going down, because I love shorting channels. There's nothing that brings me more joy than watching a channel break down and there's a huge potential to the downside. But there's a period in your year, a period in your career, and there's three, four times a year that you're going to have so much indecision in the market that you can't get your feet wet. You can't get a feeling what the market wants to do. And the easiest thing to do is kind of put a blind eye, put the blind as I continue to trade. You're never gonna get anything really conviction out of it because you know deep in your mind you're involved with a very, very aggressive channel. So those are the times, instead of trying to be this alpha male or alpha female trader and just to show everybody how smart you are, this is the time to kind of turn around and say, look, let me take the foot off the gas. I understand distribution runs three, four days. I get it, right? I'm not a child. I'm an adult. I'm doing this for 21 years. This is not about what I can do today. It's about how much mental capital can I save? How much reserves can I allocate for the final push of this distribution channel? So when the market gets very, very aggressive again, and again, aggressive doesn't mean bull market. Aggressive could be bear market as well or at least bear scenario as well. That's when I'll get a clean shot to the goal line. And this is where I can allocate some pretty aggressive capital. Until then, be an adult, right? Be mature. Again, every single business, including the trading business, you're gonna have peaks and valleys. Again, restaurants, the busiest nights are Thursday, Fridays and Saturdays. It's not Mondays and Tuesday, right? Who the hell goes out to dinner, honey? You wanna go out to dinner on Monday night, right? So every business, including the trading business is going to have levels that are gonna be very, very aggressive, what we've been fortunate of and blessed to see for a very, very long time. And then you're gonna have once a quarter, you're gonna have a distribution cycle, the control of what's gonna happen next. So tomorrow, look, is it possible we have a very, another quiet day tomorrow? Of course it's possible, right? There's a lot of names that I do like. Amazon does look very, very good. Canada Goose of all things looks good, right? Like Amazon did very, very well. Very well, actually got above today's channel. I'll get to the pivots in a second. So if it confirms today's cycle and the market does have a nice rebounding green day and especially technology pulls up, of course, this is the one you wanna allocate for a possible push here into the 3400s. Again, we see for tomorrow, 3350 weeklies, for next week, 3400s was even so the 3500s. So if the money is allocated back into technology, of course, Amazon is the place to be. Canada Goose, I like as well, right? For all you guys who don't know, very, very expensive coats, right? 1,400 bucks, you can be draped in Gooseware. You could be a Goose, father Goose, mother Goose, right? Anyway, it looks really good. Goose looks like it wants to break out. So again, there is value to the upside. On the GSAH, I kind of like as well, this Goldman Sachs spec, had a big move today if it starts confirming today's price channel tomorrow. Maybe this thing goes higher. Who knows? Maybe this is speculation who this damn thing is gonna merge with. So there is value. The downside is value as well. Peloton has held the bottom of this range here two days in a row. If the market starts getting pulled and starts losing this channel, it has a lot of room down. Overstock had a big run, right? Had a big run. First close below the 10 day moving average. If it closes below, it starts building below today's levels. You know, this thing has five, six points down. So there is value on both sides, but you have to be patient for it. This is not the market now. You could print an alert of 25 stocks and say, let's see which 20 trigger first. It's not like that, okay? You know, this isn't social media that everybody's trading everything moving at the same time perfectly. You have to do your work. You have to be diligent. You have to be feasible enough to say, look, this is a distribution cycle. I have to stay patient. I don't need to trade today. Okay, I'd like to trade today. Maybe you don't like to trade today. But the point is, don't trade because the market is open. Trade because there is value. And that's the most important message kind of going through the day. Distribution channels usually last, you know, three or four days. I firmly believe this is day two, although we had some pretty decent pivots yesterday. You started seeing channels really contract very, very quickly. And today was pretty obvious. This was gonna be a type of day for it as well. So again, if you look at today's pivots, again, I just didn't trade today. I just didn't feel like it. I just didn't like the value at least for myself. Amazon was definitely the cleanest one. And it rallied up about 20 points from the pivot. Again, it was just kind of too late in the day for me to kind of grasp my head of what was going on. So I passed on this. Usually Amazon would be incredibly good. You know, I'll watch it tomorrow. It looks really, really good. 33.22 needs to build. Here was Amazon, right? Here was Amazon traded pretty much to the high of the day of, you know, put up basically about a 20 point candle on Amazon if you took it great. ELYS, congratulations to all you guys who caught that early, 77.6. And again, you could tell it. Look, it's on the watch list, right? Volt, ears, hat, what the hell are these things, right? This is when you know, shit is real, right? So, but anyway, you know, so ELYS, these three never triggered. ELYS, 760, 770 needs to build. Here was ELYS, right? It took out the 760 level, went all the way up to the 830 level. Again, not a bad move. If you took it, you took it. EBO1 was a big mover, it's a 1130 needs to build. Here was EBON, right? Here was EBON, took out that 1130, traded to like 1370, really big move. Again, if you took it, great. Again, I kind of sat this one out today. Take on the way up, take on the way up. Here was QS, nice mover. 70 needs to build for more. Here was QS before this really aggressive reversal, right? Took out the 70 and went to 72 and that's it. I mean, that's it. So, you know, going into tomorrow again, you know, I like Amazon, you know, I like Goose, looks good. You know, do I love them? I don't know anything, right? I just want to see kind of more data. I want to see, you know, who really takes control of the day. If the Qs are going to continue to be strong, we have to reclaim the five day moving average. So we'll see, right? We'll see some of the blind man. Guys, God bless, remember, you don't need to trade every single day. You don't need to trade every single minute. Be an adult, always think of the long game. Guys, God bless, have a great day and I'll see you all tomorrow.