 We are now going to apply the decision-making process you just heard and read about. Most people are able to apply this process instinctively. However, in this case, we are asking you to be aware of which element you are going through. Let's go to Vale, Oregon, and talk to Al Crouch. Al is a fire operation specialist on the Vale BLM district. He has developed a case study and exercise from the Irish Springs Fire. Listen carefully while Al takes you to a point in the incident that will require some decision-making. Throughout this module, be sure you are applying the processes of the decision-making model. This exercise will require you to build your essay, recognize problems or changes in the environment, and select the options that reflect the most likely outcome. Before we examine the Irish Springs Fire, it's important that we recognize the overall situation leading up to the events on August 10, and see what elements may or may not have had an impact on operations that day. Over the winter and throughout the spring, the Vale district received an above-normal amount of rainfall. The timing of these moisture events allowed for above-normal fuel loads of annual and perennial grasses. And when June came, the rain stopped. These grasses cured quickly and earlier than normal. Combined with a heavy grass load and dead component from the previous year, cured and dead grass was continuous throughout most of the district and heavy in many areas. Historically, the district's 90th percentile fires occur within a 4-5 week period at the end of July and early August. This is typically a time when dry lightning storms combine with low daytime humidities and poor nighttime humidity recovery is common. 2006 was no exception. In the days leading up to the Irish Springs Fire, the Vale district was busy with initial attack. Two Type IV fires were staffed on August 9th caused by a significant lightning event. And on August 10th, before the Irish Springs Fire was reported, dispatch was busy supporting the Murray and South Fork fires. One new fire was staffed in the Baker Resource area and fire crews were dispatched to two false alarms. More lightning was forecasted for the district. Local fire crews had been going hard since the third week of June with little to no break. The district was already experiencing an above-normal amount of fires with above-normal acreage burned. The weather on August 10th was shaping up to be just like any other hot summer day in the high desert of eastern Oregon. Roughly 20 miles north of Gentura lies the Castle Rock area within the Malhear Resource area. This area of the district is known for its scenic, cultural, historical, and wildlife values. Forest stands within this area are variable, ranging from open ponderosa pine stands to dense Douglas fir stands. Most of these stands suffer from insect and disease-related tree mortality. Historically, wildfire acted as a natural thinning agent here, but the removal of fire has resulted in accumulations of large quantities of woody fuel, some greater than 30 tons per acre. This fuel, much of which is ladder fuel, is comprised both of dense understory vegetation and deep duff layers. Fuel such as juniper and mountain mahogany, mixed with mountain sagebrush and grass, typically surround these stands. The potential for high-intensity, uncontrollable stand replacement type fires is high. The morning fire weather forecast on August 10th, 2006, for Vale BLM, was as follows. Mostly sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Maximum temperatures, 83 to 93 degrees. Minimum relative humidity, 10 to 20 percent. Winds in the morning, light upslope less than 8 miles per hour. Then becoming south, 8 to 12 in the afternoon, with gusts possible to 25 miles per hour. Haines Index 6, high and a lightning activity level of 1, low. It's a lot, I'd have to say, high at this time. There is a capital rock above it, approximately up from that capital guard. Is the fire 8 percent or 80 percent active? It's active, just that value is at risk. Ice fire at this time and hazards. We also need a size. Do you like to take action? A weather update. I don't know much difference in acreage. I copy that. I still go for getting Boise's air attack over and about. The location that you're in right now, Pacific Northwest Coast, will be moving across northern Idaho Friday and early Saturday. It is taking off Thunderstorms in eastern Oregon that will fly across the northern parts of the Burns and Vale BLM, late this afternoon and evening, and Payette National Forest tonight. Payette National Forest may see thunderstorms again Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler Friday and Saturday, then warming again Sunday. Get into your groups to compare and develop your collective situation awareness. Be sure the group analyzes the situation utilizing the five processes. Your goal is to make a decision. It should take no more than 15 minutes. Your facilitator will then select someone from your group to turn your decision into action. This will be accomplished in the form of instructions to your crew or the class in this case. You may find the risk management process on page one of the Incident Response Pocket Guide to be a useful decision-making tool.