 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the power trading hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of our trading hour. And of course, well we had a nice bounce in the morning, I think that's what we can say about that. I had bought calls yesterday on the spies, I think it was about 423, something like that, 422.50 or so when I bought them. And we had a nice bounce in this morning, I thought that bounce would come later today. But I got up, saw the bounce, we were at 432, I think it was printing. So I shorted that side with the equity and locked in my profits and I wanted to see what happened after the open. Well, I just sat on those shorts all the way back down and collected my basically zero risk trade. Of course, at any time, we could have taken off the calls and did the puts. I actually got out of the calls, got out of the calls, I'm trying to say it hard today, got out of the calls and I don't know, somewhere in the 11 o'clock hour. And I'm back to all cash. I don't think a lot's going to happen today. I think we had our bounce. And because the bounce was on dubious news, everybody decided to short it, which was probably the right thing. And I'm glad that I got up and caught the spies at the highs to be able to lock in those profits. But I don't think there's a lot now to do and I think we're probably going to close this somewhat flat-ish today. But options still look bullish into next Friday. I don't know what's going to happen. Maybe we will get a real ceasefire instead of discussions about a ceasefire, but it gives you a little idea what the risk is of being short if one comes long. If you can pop 50 or 60 points on something that's bogus, is a real ceasefire worth 100, 150 points in the S&P? It's interesting. 877-927-6648, okay, we'll get back in here. Go back and look at a few of these other things. Make sure everything's good. Start checking the email and see what people have for me. Okay. And of course you can call me at 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. We've got a couple of emails already in the hopper. And of course it'd be great if you'd give me a call. I think we've got all the bugs worked out of our system this week on our new platform and probably more to be announced about that later. But I did forget to do it. No matter where you're at, as long as you're here at the appropriate time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So what do we have happening today? Like I said, Big Pop this morning got the sell-off. We're down a little bit, but there's not a lot going. NASDAQ's probably the worst part of it. A lot of that is pin action from China tech companies that are probably going to have to de-list. We've talked about it for years that I disliked any China company because, again, they won't let you look at their books. So there's been a two-tier system, one where you can do anything you want. And another system out there where you had to actually maybe have somebody look at your books. They may not be right, but at least there's some level of oversight out there. And it always made me remind this conversation, which I've kept for like forever. Do I have it? I thought I had it here. Let's find it here. There it is. Is it still here? I've got it. Oh, yes, I do. I've still got it here. I'll play a little bit of it. This is from like three years ago, and it's about VIPs, VIPs, and had two sets of books. But I don't know why anybody should be surprised that China doesn't want people looking at their books and that they're probably phony. Has that crossed your mind? Absolutely. That has crossed my mind with all my Chinese companies and more with the Chinese companies than with the U.S. companies. And I think when you're dealing with this, there's a 5% chance I'm dead wrong, and this could be nuclear. But I don't think that that's the case. But shouldn't the stock trade at a discount if there's a 5% chance that it's a zero? I mean, shouldn't the SEC, there should be a regulator. There's one regulator for these companies. It's the SEC. And the SEC has no ability to call the country of China. That's true. That's a Herman Munster. His name's not really Herman, but I call him that. I always thought, there's some people I just take an instant disliking to. They're a little slimy or oily or weasley or skunky. And maybe he checks all the boxes on there, but forget what his name's Munster. He's always on CNBC touting something, and I don't, maybe it's just the times I've caught him, but doesn't seem to do very well. But here's another little clip again. This is from three years ago for Vips. This is probably a first in a couple of regards. It's probably the first company to pre-announce earnings to the downside after already announcing their earnings date and doing so 43 days after the quarter has ended. So you bring up a good point. Like, if it's a fraud, do they not even have enough control over their fake numbers to know what they were going to be when the quarter ended? I don't have a good answer for you then, but it's also probably the first internet company, depending on mobile buyers that has pre-announced earnings because of bad weather. Right. Anyway, there's a, is that all of them? I think there's another one here. Are their revenues $350 million, or are they $3.7 billion? Which is it? Are they making $122 million, or are they losing $2.1 million? Which, this can't be the same company. You must have pulled the wrong filings, but... No, he didn't. But just amazing how many of these companies out there from China are finally getting the treatment that they justly deserve, and that is, maybe there's something, maybe they're not. But if you don't have at least a little oversight, there isn't. And of course, if you missed the news today, a lot of the companies are down, and it's kind of dragging some of the tech stocks down to, although the tech stocks have their own issues out here. But you know what, the old saying is, you lay down with dogs, you're going to get fleas. I don't have a lot of sympathy for the people that got in bed with Russia or China. They knew what they were doing. And even scumbags like Bezos from Amazon and the CEO that's taken over there, what do they do this week? They get caught with their hands in the cookie jar using slave labor. And the next day, hey, what's going to do a 20-to-1 split? And huge share of buybacks. Eventually, the chickens will come home to roost. It doesn't happen very often, but it does happen eventually that we start seeing as Buffett, William Buffett says, you only know who's swimming without a bathing suit when the tide goes out. Well, tide is going out in China. We'll be back in a minute. Are you grinding in the market, but seeing little to no return? Or are you a successful trader? Simply looking to make your job a little easier, learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades, support and resistance, define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find a path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. Free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. So what do I think is going on out here? Well, I think we've started rolling up the sidewalks for the evening and starting to look for the Fed to come out. Of course, that's going to be Wednesday. So I'm going to start saying volume is probably going to start winding down probably a little bit on Monday, certainly on Tuesday. And then probably very light until Wednesday afternoon at two o'clock and then a press conference after that. So, man, I'm not expecting a whole lot for the first part of next week. Maybe some sideways action, but I don't think much is going on here. Probably the best thing is that I'll be very active in watching how the stocks react. Probably won't be doing a lot of trading between now and Wednesday. Continue to watch for pullbacks and crude and gold. My guess is you come in Monday and both crude and gold, probably a little bit lower. Looks like crude's more of the safety play than gold is today. Gold's not bad. But again, you kind of came to the first level of support with gold at nineteen seventy five today. And my guess is that you could get one more push, maybe, and maybe it lasts all five minutes down to nineteen fifty. That's probably where I would be looking at it. Depends on how the rest goes out here. But we may be a little down today or may close flat. But again, I don't think a lot's happening in the market other than people wanting to exit stage left on any risk. And much like the the the play that I had to watch that I bring up almost all the time, waiting for Godot. By the way, if you've never seen it, he never shows. It's a horrible play. Don't let anybody suck you into that waste of a couple of hours. But hey, we're waiting for the Fed to on Wednesday now. And let's do a little bit of history as we get going here today. On this day, I think it's an 18 or excuse me, in 1989, the smartest woman, or at least the highest tested IQ ever, gets blasted by a bunch of folks that tell her she doesn't know what she's talking about. And I could probably do fifty of these, but I got some flak over the last few days about talking about people. And of course, they all say the same thing. Well, why does everybody in science say this or that or the other? Well, I don't pay a lot of attention to what everybody says in science, because guess what? There's a few things you should know about scientists and other folks out there. But I think we're starting to learn a lot more over than over the last two years. And that is they'll say a lot of stuff if they think that's exactly the smart thing to be or do, or that saves their job. But they tend to be disconnected from reality a lot. I did have in in the nineties, have an opportunity to talk to and be around magicians, Penn and Teller specifically. And they had one thing and that was they always said the easiest people in the world to fool or academics and scientists. And they never told me why they just said it was. Anyway, on this day, Maryland had written an article about how to win at playing Let's Make a Deal, a 1970s game. There was a lot of who shot John about the best way of doing it. And what the odds were and whether or not you should change your guess after the first guess, if you're unfamiliar with the show, there were three doors and behind each door, two doors were a goat or some kind of booby prize. And then behind the last one was a new car or something. And the question is it was every single time you would guess which door he'd give you an opportunity to make a change your guess. And she says in her article and some other people before this had hinted at the same thing that if you change your guess that your odds went from one in three to two in three or to actually 50 50. And so she wrote this article. Everybody gave her trouble. I want to read this one. This is a head of a mathematics at the University of Florida. You blew it. You blew it big since you seem to have difficulty grasping the basic principle at work here. I'll explain after the host reveals a goat you now have one and two chance of being correct, whether you change your selection or not. The odds are the same. There isn't enough mathematical illiteracy in this country. We don't need the world's highest IQ propagating more. Shame on you, Scott Smith of University of Florida. And by the way, I can do an hour of this because there were like 50 mathematicians doing it. Here's another one from Georgetown. You are utterly incorrect about the game show question. I hope this controversy will call some public attention to the serious national crisis and mathematical education. If you can admit your or you will have contributed constructively toward the solution of a deplorable situation. How many irate mathematicians are needed to get you to change your mind? Of course, within the year, they all had to eat humble pie or crow. I don't know which one's better out here. Um, but I've brought this up from time to time. There's a great study on people that are supposedly experts on predicting the future. And I've got the book in there. I'll bring it out during the next segment. But when you hear a lot of folks on TV or radio that are supposedly experts, just know that people that are generalists are almost always better at predicting the future than people that are supposed to be experts. There's a lot of reasons why I'll bring that book in the book out after the break, but you know what? Thirty, I think 30 top mathematicians signed a letter saying she was wrong. Well, they had to all eat crow a hundred times. I actually we go back to Einstein. A hundred people all wrote a less similar kind of letter saying he was wrong about his his theory of relativity. The gentleman that came up with the idea of washing your hands and killing germs during and after childbirth was told that he was wrong. And I think there was somewhere between 10 and 20 million women that died because of that in the coming years until they figured out that germs were a real thing and washing your hands was something you probably ought to do if you're in a operating theater or room. So and just some thoughts out here. I'm kind of in one of those days where there's I know there's not much going on. We're going to go back and look at some other charts out here. Get ready, not not go wander off, but we're going to get ready for next week because I think there's a lot of money to be made. That money is going to be made in the next few days as we pay attention, not wander off the reservation and start worrying about all the money we're not making today. Start thinking about the money. We'll be back. Fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and joined the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows. Interact with other Tigers and Tigers' as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day. 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We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. We return, we get another great segment, our trading hour. Go to the first question of the day. Do you have any explanation why Apple keeps going down? You have some high volume lows out here and why it shrank a little bit. It's not gonna be done. Especially in price and volume trading, I would say like this, if you had, you remember the Superballs? I'm hoping you do. This is Eddie. If you drop a Superball, it bounces about, I don't know, three quarters of the way up from where you dropped it if it was on concrete or something hard. And then the next one's like half and then the next one's a quarter. Until the energy's out, these things will always keep doing that. And generally the best way to see the energy in them is volume. 161 million shares in Apple is January 24th. You get a little less, you get a reversal out here on February 24th, but it's only 141 million shares. As all the stocks I went through, see how many of them really are just horribly off after the reversal on Wednesday. And maybe they bounce for a day, but if you haven't done the work, or let me put it this way, if the stock price hasn't done the work to let everybody know that the low is in, and that is with light volume tests, and I generally don't get all involved in them unless there's lighter volume. Maybe you get that on Monday. Today you already have 131 million, is that right? Yesterday you had 130, 105 million shares. 131 million shares on the eighth. Now today, 63 million shares. So you're getting close out here to making some kind of low. Options are very bullish next week. I don't know what's gonna happen, but maybe you get a low, but options are pointing 165 on Apple. I don't know what's gonna do Monday and Tuesday. I do kind of know as my Otis the drunk theory from Mayberry RFD. I know by midnight that he's gonna be in the drunk tank. Same thing come a week from Friday. So look for signals out here if you're thinking it's going higher. You don't have a lot of volume to the downside. There are better stocks out here with more potential for higher prices, but that's the technical side of it for the fundamental part of Apple. They had a, what I would call almost a disastrous dog and pony show rollout on Tuesday. Mostly what they talked about was a product that ends up being less than 3%, the whole product area, being less than 3% of its profits. And yeah, it may be a great product, but it's not gonna move the needle. And that's what everybody wanted to see with their new products is something that was gonna move the needle. And does that mean it's gonna blow out the lows? I don't think so. We'll look today, but if this thing kind of comes in here with probably 90 million shares, yeah, it could settle low. As I said, this thing's been focused in on 165 for expiration next Friday. So maybe we just need to get to the Fed meeting. But like I said, I don't think there's a lot that is highly predictable. Maybe that changes, but highly predictable between now and Wednesday afternoon. Commodities maybe, but stocks I have a feeling are kind of taking a rest. Microsoft to me looks like a better bet because it's already tested its previous low on lighter volume. You had 86 million shares on January 24th. You spiked that on February 24th with 57 million shares, went below it, closed above it. And of course, March 8th, you went below it, closed back above it and actually not holding up fairly bad. Now, this one signals that it wants to go to around 300 for expiration. You may even see 303 or 305. So maybe something changes. Maybe it happens all in one day and gives it up, but options have been holding in fairly good about what's happening. 877-927-6648. You can call me in PATH at tfnn.com, but that's kind of it. Okay, so that handles Eddie. We got, Richard says, nothing like an honest discussion about the world. I do enjoy your rants. And yeah, I do that. Oh, I was gonna bring up the book that if you're looking for something to read out here, let's see if I can pull that up, right? Super forecasting. And this is from Phillip Tetlock. He did a study on how to make good predictions. And not only that, he did a study over 20 years and found out that almost all the experts are wrong. Or let me put it this, they're more wrong than people that just sit around and read the newspaper in Nebraska, who he basically had a contest. They had a lot of contests who could predict the best stuff. But people that had inside information, worst predictors, people that knew stuff at the CIA opposed to other folks, worst predictors. I see people this week, some idiot, I can't remember her name, but I wanna say it was Monday morning. I just happened to flip on the TV and it was, I wanted to see the first ticks of the day and it was some lady on Bloomberg. And she said, you know what? Russia invading China just kinda came out of the blue. And I thought, all I've been hearing about was for, or two months into the lead up that he was gonna invade. Where did this, it came out of the blue came from? And secondly, the guy didn't actually challenge her on an obviously patentable lie or distortion of the truth. Everybody knew it was coming or thought it knew it was coming. I just thought it was gonna happen on a new moon and it happened a few days before a new moon. And that's about it. But I didn't have any inside information, but at least I didn't pretend it wasn't gonna happen. Maybe that's a good excuse for staying long. Maybe they have to say that kind of stuff as fund managers. But I wasn't particularly impressed when someone says something patentably, easily proven wrong. Anyway, great book, Super Forecasting, Philip Tetlock. And he has, there's a couple of things if you're rummaging around with Google, try to figure out a Breyer score. And basically when he came down to it, that was his best way of figuring out and changing your beliefs over time. And basically he just took the square root of the error, whatever he was wrong, and would just move the square root of that error each day until it came in. And that way you don't know over correct. But very interesting. Anyway, 20,000 predictions over 20 years, I think, is what he had. And he found and made teams of predictors that were far better than everybody we see on television. And the best guy, a farmer, out on the field, no internet, just newspapers, sitting there reading them, turning in his predictions, blue everybody else. So give you a little idea. You don't have to be an expert. Just use some common sense. We'll be back. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate, LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value, or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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But is there any big news out here? No, again, if you've got high volume lows, you wait to have them tested. Most of them are getting tested fairly quickly. Some sideways action out here. You're almost into the candle part of March 8th, Wednesday. So I'm gonna say, these SMHs still maybe a day or two away. I think that's part of Apple too. We've got a lot of those companies out here that are doing stuff. But SMH is kind of down on a light volume today, not still in the gap higher, actually filling it. And you had a nice move with a gap. What are you gonna call it? 6.7 million shares. You're down to about 5 million shares today, filling the gap. But I think it's gonna take a little bit. I was talking about some stocks in the snooze today. And the first one is Blink. Do I have that right? Yeah, Blink charging. And what do we have on this one? Well, learnings weren't that great. I guess that's it. But really you had nothing more than a lower high and a higher low. And going sideways out here, so I wouldn't write too much home about it. The big loser loser out here and get the loser horn is DocuSign. And again, we talk a lot about technicals, but I think one of the things you should think about, at least broadly, is where there is a moat to entry. I.e. they have some kind of patent or some other thing that's gonna keep everybody out of their business. Bidness. And guess what? DocuSign, as Steve, or Steve, as Tom, who comes on after the show, talks about occasionally is how many other companies are doing the same thing as DocuSign. They were at the right place at the right time and got the lion's share of the business going into the pandemic. But as more and more of these companies came online, it's hard to change charge the same amount. And of course, you're divvying up the pie a little bit more. But again, until the tide goes out, you really don't know who's swimming without a bathing suit. And that's William Buffett's saying, but certainly you've got a huge volume out here. Let's go back and look at this thing over the long term. Yeah, I mean, you still have a $64 low, let's call it 64.88 for March 12th, 2020. And that tells you where that thing took off. You're what, six bucks from it. I think this thing is going to a laser, like a laser to 64.88 at March 12th low. So no reason to jump in it now. Facebook, encouraging folks to go out and kill folks, just the ones that they approve of killing. And in the case this is Russians, but don't think a company should be involved in probably talking about killing people either way. I think probably kind of the third rail of politics is not to talk about retirement and what is it, Medicare. Probably should be the third rail of companies out here that shouldn't talk about encouraging people to talk about killing people. And down a little bit today, but you had kind of a test out here. Let's go back here and look a little bit. You had kind of a test out here. It's been on lighter volume. I don't talk about management that much on most companies. I kind of like the management at Workday and Microsoft's CEO's been good, but I'm going to say that CEOs, about maybe 5% of the time make a difference. And this time I'm thinking that they make a difference, but the wrong kind, not the good kind of difference out here, but the bad kind and probably until these guys are gone. I think Facebook, Metamucil, whatever you want to call them these days. Just if you put some lipstick on a pig, it is still a pig. And I don't see anything changing out here on that. I'm in a rare mood today. But that's it. You can't remember. Anyway, I never thought much about Facebook to begin with. They did make a lot of money and still do. They'll still be around, but yeah, I think somebody with a little bit more in the way of understanding how the real world works could probably do a lot better with Facebook and quit using it for a lot of E here. But I don't think I'm the only one that recognizes the evil that Mark Zuckerberg produces around the world and then the United States, but not a big fan of social media being anti-free speech and or talking a great deal about killing folks. But it's okay now. He said it's okay. Can't talk about killing anybody else, but Russians, you can talk about killing them and encourage it, but I do digress. Question out here on, got a couple of them come in. What's going in here? Take a look. Okay, first one is on CCJ. I mean, you're up here at highs. You had a lot of volume. You probably need to pull back to three by three. So figure maybe a pullback to 25, 50 or so. I'd need, I think one more pullback and one more run to bust out through 27. So I think that looks good, but I think it's like a lot of these gold in these. These things just need to consolidate some of the moves higher and then the pullbacks out here. Got a question about Zscaler. Here, let's take a quick look at that. Does it look good? Got a $12 million selling climax back on February 25th and of course a low is not a low until it gets retested. You got retested on a 4.4 million shares as things going sideways. You know, the only thing is I don't see any reason to buy it today, but Monday morning we come in and the markets start to feel a little bit better. You just know where your real low is out here that you want to think to always close above 206. You're not in that yet and that's the problem. Close above 206 means you're long. Anything below a close on 206 means that you're wrong and you should get out. Place your stop there. We'll be back in a minute. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. 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As we return, we have one more question, or a couple of them, maybe. Check the email here again. We have a couple more questions out here and one is coin. We talked about this on a lot of stocks that we're testing that are loads of lighter volume. But you had a pullback today, so far the volume is fairly light. You had the good low and the test, as we talked about in the Wycofft. You get an automatic rally, that's all good and great, but better is the test of the previous low on half the volume and you got that. You're coming back in today with a 2.5 million shares into a, let's call it a 4 million share low on March 8th. If volume remains light, then you're fine. What you're generally gonna find out in these stocks with this Wycoff pattern is if they can close and stay above the three by three, then generally they're pretty good. Then when this one closed yesterday below it, and generally that's not it. But you're just having a little bit of consolidation in this. I look at it Monday morning, but risk reward is pretty good on this. If you could buy it at 157, just make sure it closes above 56.53 or yeah, 156 is out here. As long as it keeps going, but I don't see any reason to be buying it today, but I think Friday, I mean, Monday morning, things are looking okay. When this thing is gonna get going again off this low volume low, just wait for it to break back through this downtrend in the nine day or the three by three displaced moving average. You were saying 165 and options on Apple, yeah, next week. Yeah, thanks, have a great weekend. Yeah, I'll let you know again, remind me on Monday. We'll look and see how options close today, but it's been kind of stuck at 165 for March 18th. So we'll see. Most of these look like they're gonna bottom a day or two today in the tech sector. So when you can, not when you have to, we'll see you here Monday.