 Good morning, everyone. How's it going out there? I hope you can see my screen. Okay, if you can't just let me know and for those that are just listening on Twitter spaces, just know that there is a live broadcast of this with video as well available and If you do have your mic open on the Discord, please feel free to mute that I just want to make sure there isn't any background noise for other folks that are listening and then we will get this all fired off We're going to talk about Technicals this morning. It's really going to be the focus of What I'm going to be going over. I hope that's going to be helpful for you all as we get closer to the trading day And we will go through the first half hour of the trading day Visualizing both futures and a number of key stocks using book map So this is back to the futures with me markets in mayhem a presentation done in partnership with book map Let's talk a little bit about me My real trading journey began in 2005 funding my own account trading stocks then moving on to options futures Forex also started to get more interested in commodities I navigated through the great financial crisis, which helped me to better appreciate the importance of understanding Intermarket dynamics momentum and macro My approach is systematic driven by momentum price action options flows and positioning as well as volume profile I began working with book map in early 2022 because I saw great value away their platform including the heat map icebergs and stops Really illustrated the way that the market was working and then I built my advanced spx options Visualizer on top as an add-on to book map to better show how options impact price and kind of completing the package so that I could see Everything I was interested in in one place So let's go through the disclaimer here. I know this is everyone's favorite part of the presentation and We're going to just go through it real quick all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific financial advice nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not Necessarily indicative of future results. So with that out of the way, let's dive right in First we're going to go through some of the major stocks We've had the magnificent seven shrink to maybe the magnificent four at this point Google the latest to really break down out of this weekly uptrend that it enjoyed since the beginning of 2023 and This concerns me a little bit because this is a pattern that we have seen in other leadership stocks Breaking down so Google breaking down here and down more pre-market Leads me to believe that there is some more downside here possibly all the way down to about 12290 but we're going to be taking a look here We have some important points on this chart to take into consideration One of them is these these lower areas in the volume profile So just taking a look at that, you know, we've got a lower area in the volume profile right here where we're testing So it's going to be important to see whether or not we start to build acceptance lower into this higher area of the volume profile If we do I think it's more likely we test this next low volume node And then finally we get down to 12290 which we've seen prices gotten stuck there before That's been kind of an important area for Google. So wouldn't be too surprising if we get kind of drawn back there As this sort of corrective impulse plays out So that's one of the things that I'm looking at this morning leading to me leading me to believe there might be some more weakness They're in the NASDAQ the next one we have here This is a chart of Apple Apple's also broken down from its weekly uptrend that it enjoyed since the beginning of 2023 and this breakdown is seen continued momentum below this very important area Which is the weekly point of control. So that does bring these lower levels of Apple into view perhaps around 165 could be an area where we start to see some support come in for this stock We also got bad news overnight for Apple Their sales in China of iPhones are down about 24 percent So we are seeing some weakness in growing competition from companies like Huawei Then we've got Tesla Tesla was also a leader in 2023 it started to break down really rather aggressively in 2024 and we see that pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart on the weekly chart We see some consolidation here around this point of control. It isn't too unlikely. We get stuck there We've been kind of stuck there before but I would caution that this company is also starting to see some real Slowing of growth. So Apple and Tesla are two of the companies that you know really have multiples that aren't warranted by their growth There are some concerns there I think investors are starting to show them in the way they're trading these stocks So now that we've talked about three of the captains of the rally that are starting to break down We all know Nvidia, you know is doing quite well Microsoft Amazon Meta. They're doing quite well Those are kind of the magnificent four. That's really what's holding things up right now So it's very important that those stocks continue to lead It's also very important that we see leadership broaden out to equal weight to small caps if the rally's gonna have staying power But for now We may be seeing a little bit of a drawdown a correction in price or time or both Starting as we see some of the former leaders breaking down. So let's talk about the S&P 500 We've got the e-mini futures on screen right now I realize they've fallen a little bit more since I put this chart together not too long ago But the point of this chart is to show you some of the key levels if you want to screenshot this that I'm watching for over more of a swing Time frame and the reason we're opening this chart up is because if we do start to see a reversal We do have some reasonable targets to look at as potential downside 51 17 50 93 75 50 50 50 15 those are some of the key areas that I would be watching in ES It wouldn't be too unlikely That we have just a little bit of drawdown pressure Maybe a retracement down to that uptrend line that has provided pretty solid support most of this year That's gonna be the key test is whether we're able to hold that and the 20-day moving average The next chart we have here is of the S&P 500 but broken down on an hour-by-hour basis So each candlestick represents an hour where as the prior each candlestick Represented a day and we can see we're kind of at least at the time of making this chart hovering over a pretty important level Around 51 17 75 now That's a level that I would be keeping an eye on because I think that's an area that we can act We can look at as a bit of a pivot here today We can see that futures are testing it right now. We're at 51 16 75 Right, so I do think that this is an area to keep an eye on we've seen it as Place where the markets become interested in the S&P in the past and we see that again this morning So this is just you know Something as a very short term intraday level to watch as a potential pivot if we start to move Further below there. I do think we've got some room to the downside to around 51 oh 250 or 50 93 75 intraday Let's now look at the Nasdaq the high beta cousin of the S&P 500 It was rejected at its prior high now We're starting to show some price action below this key trend line that had acted as a major area of support We had had a breakdown of from it before and then we were able to move back higher And then we sort of settle below then we broke back higher now We're settling below again here the 20-day moving average comes into view as an important level 18,044 17,000 928 50 17,000 730 150 and 17,484 are some of the more key Immediate levels to watch war in a swing time frame And then we can bring that all the way down to that sort of chunky area around the point of control Around 17,000 and just above and below where we may see price get drawn if we do crack that 20-day moving average So that would more look like getting back into this area where there's a lot of interest and where we've seen consolidation patterns in the past So it wouldn't be too unlikely that we see that that's an area we see the market liking to transact But first we have to break through this real chunky volume profile that we're in now Now the other side of the trade is maybe we break back above that moving average and keep moving higher Or I'm sorry that trend line and keep moving higher, but of yet this morning. It really does have a kind of negative more Distributive look so for now. I'm looking for downside in the NASDAQ in the S&P and some of these leadership stocks Let's look at the NASDAQ on an hourly basis here. I'm also just going to quickly check quotes So we're not terribly far from where I put this chart in this is the charts time was or the price at the time was 18,000 148 or 18,000 140 and 75 and I think that this is another level that we're starting to pull below It does look like we have some room lower here on the NASDAQ intraday. So I'm looking at 18,1008 18,082 and 18,044 as levels here as we potentially break below this initial pivot the next pivot would be 18,1008 from there. I do think 18,044 25 becomes more likely and if the selling intensifies I have my eyes on the 17,928 where again, we see there's a lot of interest in this market So we do have some levels to watch today again Feel free to screenshot any of these if they help and next we're going to move on to the Russell 2000 Russell 2000 has been showing some interesting relative strength. We can see it building up here We can also see it showing some strength versus the broader market as it's pulling back The biggest concern that I have about the Russell 2000 here is now that SMCI is heading into the S&P 500 It is likely to leave the Russell 2000 in a lot of the gains That we saw this year in small caps were driven by the Russell 2000 So I do think that's a concern to keep an eye on the way that We have seen small caps really lead the way So just a couple things to keep in mind as we look at the small caps here We're gonna zoom in a little bit but for right now, they've got a lot to prove to us I think that we'll probably see a bit of a drawdown in them But one thing to keep in mind as we have this hedge fund gross leverage near all-time highs They love shorting the Russell So if their favorite longs like the mag 5 or the mag 7 start to see drawdown You can actually have a bid come into these small caps as a result sort of counterintuitive until you look at the positioning and Realize why that's happening and it's because hedge funds are aggressively short things like the Russell 2000 the next one we've got here is Russell 2000 on an hourly basis and this one is interesting too because oh, I'm sorry. This one is actually gold We're gonna move back here just a little bit. All right So actually I didn't zoom all the way in to Russell on an hourly basis because I wanted to zoom into gold instead So my apologies about that but these levels are still quite important to watch on the Russell here Now we're gonna move into gold. This one's really exciting It does look like it wants to break out to new all-time highs after the price action. We saw yesterday and today So this is one that I'm keeping an eye on very closely We we almost kissed those all-time highs this morning And I'm really looking at silver to catch up here And one of the reasons I'm looking at gold with some degree of enthusiasm is I'm seeing gold showing credible relative strength We've got rates that did rise quite a bit and then they're easing out But gold is showing strength compared to that It's really keying off of a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions around the world And also probably the notion that maybe the Fed is making a policy mistake if they lurch towards cutting with all the backdrop We have of some potential rise in inflation in the pipeline Whether we look at things like small businesses potentially raising prices about 36% of respondents over the next three to six months looking at that Whether we look at some of the other areas like PPI showing some potential inflation the works Housing prices continue to move higher and that lag defect on owner's equivalent rent or what we're seeing In services PMI and we'll get some more of that data this week Which will also be I think pretty important to get a sense as to what the sentiment is in the market as it comes to Inflation in fact this morning. We will get ISM services PMI at 10 a.m So that'll be something I'll stay on the stream just a little longer to unpack that data and talk about what I'm seeing as it comes out But for now gold looking really strong liking opportunities and silver Which is also surging and some of the miners that are better run and be careful in that space could have some room to catch up Next up we have gold on this hourly chart here similar look just building acceptance after moving higher here So really healthy volume profile showing that this isn't just buyers just screaming higher We're actually building higher step by step by step and this kind of step-by-step pattern in a microstructure is Healthy as we're approaching these all-time highs This is telling me that there are folks trying to fight this and selling into it taking profit and otherwise But buyers are thoroughly in control The next chart we have here as we approach the open just about 14 minutes away is crude oil crude oil is Reversing here it looked like it was making a nice little breakout of this range that we had been in you know Really a decisive break, but now we're reversing lower So is this a head fake it looks a little like that, but I'm not gonna call it that unless we close below the point of control Okay, so we are looking at about 7740 or so as a key pivot level for crude oil, but right now I am a little bit leery of it intraday I don't want to take longs on it here I'm looking at it more to see whether we can start to rebuild and reverse higher Zooming into crude looking at this 77 98 level as one of the key levels to keep an eye on if we're able to Make a push above it, you know right now. We're at 78 28 Pre-market, so we're already at that level pre-market looking a little bit healthier But to get me more excited to want to take a long in crude I need to see it push above 78 30, which it's just Starting to do as I'm saying this but it's testing. Let's see if it can build some acceptance there Next one we have is the 10-year note futures and this was a pretty nice little Consolidation area that we saw it led to relative strength really starting to build up as we had this move higher into a higher volume area And this could have room back up to the top of this little range that I have around 1207 So this is what I'm watching I don't necessarily think that the move higher in rates over the intermediate term is over But in the short term I think the selling may have gotten a little exhausted and sellers could not push this lower We marked this line we talked about it last week as well. This 109 16 level remains robust support and Then zooming in on the dollar as well. This is not looking so great We are consolidating around the point of control and below or below the 20-day moving average We have relative strength rolling over a bit here. It's still high, but it's rolling over. It's about 51 and I'm looking for the dollar to actually move lower a little bit And I think one of the reasons the dollar moves lower a little bit has to do with the ECB and how they may come out a little bit More hawkish this week than people expect And that would be good for gold as well. So follow my work We're about to get into bookmaps. So don't go anywhere, but you could follow my work on Twitter at mayhem for markets or YouTube same name My short-term trading ideas coaching and tools can be found at trader a comm you get a 20% discount off Your first month or quarter by using the code mayhem 20 at checkout You can also check out the advanced spx options visualizer now live at the bookmap marketplace I built this myself Tested it for about five months and now it's in production. We've got folks signing up. Give me a lot of good feedback about it It's also available on the trader a discord if you want to give it a shot and Finally my long-term trading and investment ideas research and consulting services for institutions are Available at macro visor comms who got a retail newsletter and we have institutional consulting there and I stream live Regularly including for book map every Tuesday at 9 a.m. Eastern. So do be sure to join me as I stream So we're gonna get into book map here. Give me a sec to get my setup all configured as we go into this And I hope everyone's having a good morning. It's gonna be an interesting trading day I think we did get a lot of interesting information out of China including that they're really trying to target 5% GDP 3% inflation 3% government deficit But the biggest thing is they're kind of trying to walk back the idea that they're gonna use a bazooka to try to stimulate markets Which I don't think markets are going to receive particularly well just because China's markets really need a lot more support But more importantly the real estate market there needs a lot more support than it has gotten So on screen we do have the s&p 500. We are just about nine minutes away from the cash open here And I've got a lot of stuff on book map today. In fact, I maxed it out We've got 20 different instruments to look at today So this should be kind of cool and folks in the chat rooms if you have any questions about anything Let me know as we go through this this morning though a bit choppy for the s&p as we get ready for the open Just zooming out a little bit We can see that there's been a bit of a descent and we see liquidity building below us above the volatility Trigger which is going to be about 50 100 spx Nasdaq similar look as the s&p largely moving lower this morning ahead of the open Below the point of control and view app Russell a somewhat similar look Not quite as pronounced But still, you know, this is maybe for the reasons that we discussed that when the small caps are struggling a bit You know, that's that's generally something that hedge funds will lean into but on the other side of it When the small caps are You know struggling in lieu of a broader market slowdown Then you may actually have a bit in the small caps because you have a sort of compression of Exposure of book leverage So, you know, if the whole day is drawing down the mag sevens drawing down You may get a little bit more of a bit in the Russell than you expect because you have some of those hedge funds potentially easing out of that positioning gold here Continuing this interesting move that we've seen consolidating from that push towards all-time highs But also recovering from these lows now We do have a really large resting bid in the gold contract here around 21 33 It's unusual to see bids of this size. This is not a very liquid trading vehicle 6.5 thousand order book depth this morning So something to just take into consideration is that gold here does have interest lower But we are very very close to all-time highs and we do have some pretty big interest above here So these are two levels. We're seeing interest in the market 21 55 and 21 33 ahead of the open Crude is recovering off its lows. It's building a base off that 78 30 level we talked about during the prep I do like it here for intraday long So I think we do have some room higher and we do see interest building above here 78 80 79 80 dollars Let's take a look at the twos not much to see in this contract. So we're going to move right on to the tens Similar look not much to see here now. This is probably going to change after we get ISM services PMI So You know, we'll see how the rates do after that data drop at 10 a.m. That's going to be quite interesting I'm going to be most interested in new orders and plays and prices paid 30 year note futures similar look not much to go on in the bond market this morning Let's look at the euro. This is the euro contract. It gives us a good sense as to how the dollar is trading because euro is about 70 percent of us dollar index, right So that's something to take into consideration Once we see services PMI how the dollar reacts. We'll view that in the euro. We'll also view it in the yen here So we can see the yen building a little bit of strength this morning The euro coming back a little bit after it made a pop But coming back here and testing view app Now we're going to do something a little new on my stream. We're going to go into some single stocks as well Which is going to be kind of fun. Here's Nvidia pre-market Right and the cool thing about this is i'm actually going to have visualizers for spy Cues and some of the most popular optionable single stocks for book map coming soon to the marketplace So be on the lookout new stuff coming soon But in video pre-market trading at 855. We do see some interesting options interest building up there at 900 and above I'm just going to go over to my discord real quick. I have some tools there that I look at the options market with So i'm just going to run a a quick profile on Nvidia's options Exposure here and soon you'll be able to see this right in book map and including in my streams But uh, i'm still working on the code. So yeah interest in book map and um in video I'm sorry growing at 900 and 950 on the call side as we get into this trading day Now that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be immediately a magnet higher But it does certainly tell us there's still a lot of bullishness in the stock And then pretty large amount of support around 800 with options positioning So ahead of the market here, you can see Nvidia is a pretty liquid trader You know, you've got uh, well over 400 000 on the order book here And you've got some pretty big interest at 850 and 865 Now let's look at silicon micro certainly not the same level of order book depth as Nvidia But still nevertheless, this has been a really important stock It shows the sort of euphoric sentiment that we see in the the AI and chip space But also it's a great barometer of risk appetite intraday So we're going to add this to the instruments that we're watching on book map And SMCI a lot of interest at 1050 and 1025 as we get into the trading day here Now we're going to look at meta Meta not a lot going on pre-market in this thing You can see that in the way it's trading But there is a lot of interest lower around 493 on this stock And then even more interest higher at 497 Amazon another one we're going to watch throughout the trading day You can see there's large levels of interest lower at 176 and 175 there Not a lot of interest higher until 178 A little bit at 17680 as well Microsoft Pretty large interest around 41215 on this one Stabilizing a little bit but this is going to be much more interesting to watch After the cash open which is coming right up Apple too seeing a bit more of a drawdown this morning Really having a rough go with news They let go of their self-driving car Leaning into AI without any detail Not really helping to inspire many There's problems with the Vision Pro There's issues with quality with the nose bridge cracking with the glass itself And then we got news that iPhone sales in China Are down about 24% from increasing competition from Huawei Got Google on screen here This will be another one that's interesting to watch It is starting to see some selling pressure As we're about one minute 30 seconds away from the open Then we have Eli Lilly Because we know this has just been such a rocket ship I'm going to be watching this one It's another sort of barometer of sentiment And then finally we're going to watch XLE As another way of watching the energy market today So we got a lot We got a lot to watch It should be a lot of fun I'm going to just check in on the channels here And see what people are saying Yeah, good morning everyone And thank you so much for your positive feedback About the Advanced SPX Options Visualizer It's really a cool tool I think that options play such a big role in the market That we can't really discount their importance So when I'm looking at the way options influence price I'm looking at areas of interest Where large participants are showing us Where they're already positioned Or where they want to be positioned And so the visualizer looks at full chain It's not just zero DTEs It's full chain There's 1.2 trillion of notional value Trading across the SPX options chain every single day That dwarfs all US equity futures markets put together Which do about 400 billion in notional So it really is the tail wagging the dog here Derivatives play such an important role Which is why I feel like book map Plus the advanced options visualizer Is such a perfect combination Because we get to see the session volume profile The order book And then where there's options positioning And where there's flow And that for me completed the picture So I originally built it for my own trading And then I decided I'll share it With the trader aid community See what they think I got really good feedback So I was like well I may as well take this to the market And try to give as many retail traders an edge As I can because these aren't things That we're typically looking at And there aren't tools available That give us this minute by minute view Because the data is updated every minute So it's a fun little tool I had a lot of fun making it And certainly going to continue to build into it Market is opening here It is 9.30 AM Got a half hour left in the stream And we do have some important data coming up 9.55 I'm sorry 9.45 We've got S&P Global Composite PMI And S&P Global Services PMI Then at 10 AM We have ISM Services PMI And Factory Orders month over month We'll also get the Economic Optimism Index Factory Orders X Transportation ISM Services Business Activity Employment and New Orders So it's going to be a decent data day And then of course we have The Feds Bar speaking at 12 And then again at 3.30 PM So just for folks out there that are watching That are not super familiar with how I look at the S&P I do like to look at a 20 minute opening range For the S&P 500 I think that gives me a better sense As to what the intraday trend may look like The one caveat on a day like today Is we're going to have services PMI at 10 AM Which could change a lot Depending on if it comes in much hotter than expected Or much cooler than expected The consensus is for 53 And we see a little bit of that selling pressure Pulling down the point of control here As the cash open Has started And we see some more transacting happening Let's take a look at the NASDAQ here NASDAQ you see in a nasty pull Does not look quite like the S&P This is probably a bit of a bearish omen overall And we talked about some of the leadership Breaking down even pre-market This seems to be a continuation of that theme We'll get into some of those stocks in just a moment All right, let's take a look at the Russell Russell, look at that Doing the exact opposite of the NASDAQ At least for that moment This is more of what we could kind of expect From the small caps if we get a big draw In the mega caps Because of that order You know, kind of orderful you get From hedge funds de-grossing They're selling their mega caps They're covering their shorts and their small caps Right, so if the NASDAQ gets a nasty draw Down, getting that pop in the Russell Makes a lot of sense Based on the distribution of positioning From some major players in the market And so let's take a look now at gold Gold starting to build off those recent lows here We've got that range, that 21.55 and 21.33 In terms of large areas of resting liquidity in gold Crude consolidating a bit Below that 78.30 level So I'm only interested in longs above that level Let's see if it can reclaim it Right now I just consider it sort of testing that level Not much in the bond market So we're going to skip past that until we get services PMI Dollar giving us a little bit of strength as the euro rolls over But yen continuing to climb higher I am kind of interested in countertrend Scalps in long yen And we'll take a look at that See if that plays out But I just feel like we're seeing a bit of Potential reversal in the dollar versus the yen In the very short term Although over the longer term Unless and until the BOJ really reverses their stance on negative interest rates I think the yen could continue moving lower Let's look at Nvidia here Ew, nasty little pull in Nvidia So we are seeing some additional pressure here And some of the single stocks Including really important stocks Nvidia pulling down to 8.44 We do have some decent resting liquidity below it Building up here as you can see SMCI, pretty big pull there Into some resting liquidity below as well We'll zoom out a little bit We can see there's offers stacked above as well There's just a lot in the order book on these stocks They trade pretty decent amount of liquidity Meta, not so much of a pull at the open as these others Similar with Amazon Not quite as much of a pull there But still some pressure downward Microsoft seeing a decent pull however Apple actually getting a bid Into all this, that's pretty interesting And Google as well So a little bit of a divergence so far in some of these Eli Lilly, pretty healthy pull down there And XLE, getting a bid as we see energy coming off of those lows And XLE comparatively has been quite strong versus oil prices So let's go back to the S&P It is actually starting to move lower with some degree of volume here So we do see that pressure building up We are getting down to that volatility trigger level now Now 5100 SPX is a pretty large level of resting liquidity So it wouldn't be terribly surprising to get a bit of a bid Just the amount of interest that's around that level And options is pretty large So you're probably going to have some degree of a bounce there And that is that vol trigger level on the chart Now if we do crack that level decisively and build acceptance below We've probably got a reasonable amount of downside NASDAQ continuing to pull lower With a bit more vigor than we saw pre-market There is a decent amount of excitement here I mean these are pretty large amounts of volume Which is typical during the cash session But also shows you there is some determined selling happening And look at that the rustles up as the NASDAQ's down We can see that again that deleveraging theme playing out So that is interesting There could be some scalp opportunities in the small caps In that arena hedge funds tend to be more short The growth factor of small caps So IWO and the stocks in IWO Could be the ones to look at potentially Let's just take a look at the relationship as it is today Today IWO out underperforming IWN just a little bit by about 0.68% So we'll keep an eye on that But the relative strength in that trend has been Incredible since the beginning of this year With that outperformance of about 20% of growth Versus value factor in the small caps So we can see that building and we can see the NASDAQ Just sort of continuing that pull Let's take a look at gold here A bit of a sideways consolidation in gold Oil that test was successful We got right back down to the VWAP here And now we're building above that 78-30 pivot level So oil looks healthy for longs as does XLE intraday And even on an intermediate term basis And we have a little bit of a pull here in the euro Below the point of control and below VWAP Just giving us a sense the dollar is firming up We have that data release coming out in about 22 minutes That'll be ISM services PMI And then we have the YEN also pulling back a little bit So again with the YEN I will be looking for some countertrend scalps on this thing But we'll have to see how services PMI plays out And what impact that has on rates first Nvidia catching a bit of a pop off of its lows We do have a lot of resting liquidity across the order book on this one And 850 is a very large level of options interest So not terribly surprising We kind of hover up and down around that level Plus minus five dollars SMCI also popping off that lows That incredible wall of liquidity Really offering some support for it Meta kind of a similar look But grinding a little bit lower Remember we looked at it a bit before It didn't look like it was necessarily Moving the same way as some of these other stocks Now it's starting to catch down just a bit Similar look with Amazon Microsoft continuing to pull lower Apple giving up some of its gains that it had From the cash open Looking a little bit like a lower high lower low micro structure Unless we start to break above 171.40 And Google just bucking the trend You know it's interesting Because Google has a lot of struggles it's dealing with Including the idea that search could increasingly be replaced by AI chatbots And Google's struggling to make a decent AI chatbot Gemini which used to be named Bard Still having a lot of issues In fact their image generation had so many issues that they stopped They cut it off Eli Lilly had a little bit of a pop resuming that pull So overall energy really looks great here Google's bucking the trend But there is some pretty decent weakness Small caps also overall At least last checked Yep still bucking the trend there And tech overall slumping So I'll clear out these contracts for the rates And we'll add them in for next time Rolling them over to June Let's take a look at the news And see if there's anything interesting out there We did have a market on open imbalance of 250 million to the sell side Not really that much to go off of And I don't think these numbers really correlate with outcomes But still interesting nevertheless As we know market participants at least glance at that data We did get a red book year over year in earlier this morning Up 3.1% versus a forecast of about 2.8% So that was decent Spot gold did hit a record high You know the futures obviously vary versus spot But spot actually did hit a record high this morning And that's interesting to see And certainly I think there is room for continuation there in gold And we did get an interesting poll Home prices in the majority of property market surveyed Will rise faster in 2024 earlier than thought Based on median projections That's probably not a great sign for inflation data Because shelter is the biggest part of CPI It is also the biggest weighting in PCE Albeit smaller and calculated slightly differently And that's been one area where people have been Intended to sort of discount it completely Why worry about shelter? We'll just forget about it Looks like rents are coming down But the reality is That may have been a temporary reprieve And some of this data which is parsed by You know the market economists and otherwise May start to show a bit of affirming up Which isn't the worst thing There are opportunities in a reacceleration of inflation environment In industrials and materials We may even see some opportunities in precious metals Obviously in energy companies And there's also opportunities to potentially fade the long end So you know no matter what the market regime is There's an opportunity to trade it and make money So when we start talking about you know Where things might go with inflation Or otherwise it's not the end of the world It's just a matter of kind of recalibrating Our expectations and where we might want to participate Being adaptive, being you know Able to evolve with different market regimes Is one of the most important parts of success Buying and holding doesn't necessarily really work If you look at the past And there's some great tweets about this You know you go back in time You see there's decades of time Where markets go sideways or lower So you know obviously factor dividends into that Maybe it looks a little bit different for those folks But at the end of the day Understanding where you are in the credit cycle And which components of the market Sectors and industries and individual stocks may benefit Can help to deliver uncorrelated returns and outperformance All right let's have a look around See what's going on NASDAQ pulling lower making a new low Not the best look Let's see what Russell's do it Wow That you know it's almost like today is a pair trade day A short NASDAQ and long Russell I may be a little ahead of myself on that But look at what we're seeing You're taking the other side of extended positioning In that trade Now this is not investment advice This is just ideas that I'm sharing But boy so far that idea seems to be working out Pretty well if anyone was taking it And there is such extended positioning In both that there is room to say It could potentially continue working Let's take a look at some of the heavyweight stocks here Nvidia building up off of that retreat That we saw post cash open Now starting to get bid I think it is actually illegal For Nvidia to be down too much So yeah There's SMCI also had a little bit of a rebuild Now testing the VWAP intraday Meta recovering off its lows Rather appreciably and quite quickly there Amazon also starting to have a bit of a healthier look Maybe we get a higher low here and a higher high We'll see if we get that reversal Microsoft continuing to plunge the depths However no reprieve there really And Apple giving up those gains making new lows Google somewhat of a similar look here Testing that VWAP level And then someone asked about Tesla I noticed I don't have it on my book So let me add Tesla Eli Lilly still pulling a bit XLE still building a bit And we're just going to pull Tesla into a group of its peers here And we're just going to clean up the chart slightly Tesla is just quite choppy this morning overall As you all can see It had a pretty big draw over the last several days So not terribly surprising to see some bid interest around 180 and above That's an area where there is a lot of interest In the options market on this stock So as long as it can hold above 180 I think it's in decent shape But I would be a little concerned if it starts to break below So we're going to go all the way back to the S&P here And just bear with me a moment About 14 minutes out till we get that data drop And we are getting data from Global Services PMI And US S&P Services PMI final Which just came in at 52.3 versus a forecast of 51.4 US Composite PMI final came in at 52.5 versus a forecast of 51.4 So both stronger than what was anticipated Market does not seem to be receiving that data particularly well Of course we came into today with plenty of pressure to the downside as it was Still seeing that pull continuing lower in the NASDAQ here If we look at this as a 20 minute opening range We're just about to form that opening range And it's a pretty big one overall We'll also pull in the S&P here zoom in just a little bit more We're starting to get that options data in the visualizer here We can see where larger parties are expressing interest In SPX converted to ES levels And it does look like this second most active what we call the warm put Coincides with a rather large area of resting liquidity below So there's a lot of interest down there Probably really the most that we see near spot at any one price Yeah, let's take a quick look at old rusty here Pretty incredible to see that counter move We keep seeing these two where the Russell is bid and the NASDAQ is skidding And I feel like it it is interesting It is worth watching when these trades play out like this All right We're just about nine minutes away out from ISM services PMI Getting a little bit of a rebid here in the NASDAQ Let's take a look at some of the heavyweight stocks here Nvidia continuing that bid Really getting a decent amount of support Above 850 that is a pretty important level of options interest So getting you know that test below and seeing a rebid They're not too surprising in that stock SMCI has a lot of options interest around a thousand So also similarly important area of support that we're also seeing in resting liquidity Meta kind of chopping a range here I think there's a bit of consolidation ahead of this data release Amazon kind of a similar look Microsoft though really just can't seem to get out of its way today Apple very similar look to Microsoft right now And Google giving up those earlier gains now starting to roll over And Tesla actually building from that touchdown around 180 Eli Lilly also building off of its lows And XLE continuing to push higher All right, let's move back as we approach the data release to the spools or the S&P Yeah, I think if we do bust that vol trigger I think that would be pretty important Particularly if that ends up being piercing the lower end of that opening range Which it looks like that would be exactly how that could play out So it'd be sort of a double there And it would set us up for some downside targets around where we're seeing a lot of interest You know, the initial downside target would be that second most active put strike Another downside target would be a large put wall in S&P And then the final downside target would be that hot put level Where we see the most interest in SPX for downside So that's a great question And yes, that volatility trigger is also likely to make things just choppier overall Should it play out Got data dropping in about four minutes here folks, stay tuned Hearing Bitcoin just made a new all-time high And if it's of interest to folks, I could add a Bitcoin to my next stream So we could watch that as well Since it is a decent barometer of risk appetite And we'll probably start to see liquidity thin out here ahead of ISM Services PMI So be careful about your size and your risk management ahead of these events It typically is a bit of an event volatility catalyst You see liquidity thin out, then you see the reaction, then it starts to come back Which means you're likely to see more slippage in orders placed around the event Just over one minute left before we get ISM Services PMI So typically I wrap up around 10, but we've got this data coming out So I'm going to stay on for like another five minutes afterwards Just to parse that data Talk a little bit about what I think it means This is the ISM Services PMI, really the most important thing The ISM Services PMI, really the most important data release coming out today And from S&P's Williamson about the final Services PMI The goods and services producing sectors are collectively reporting the sharpest growth since last June Hinting at a further quarter of solid GDP growth Good news for the economy We'll see how that plays out for the fight against inflation Data should be dropping any moment Expectation was for 53 Got 52.6 lower than forecasted 52.6 So this is bullish for equities initially Because bad news is good news That's the environment that we're in right now Just waiting for the information to post here On the ISM website Factory orders came in month over month Worse than expected at minus 3.6% versus a forecast of minus 3% For prior reading was 0.2% growth We just got the ISM Services PMI report posted On ismworld.org where you can find this data Prices are still increasing albeit at a slower rate The reading came in this time at 58.6 Last reading was 64 So that is a decrease of 5.4% This is a diffusion index so it's really about respondents We do see basically prices still increasing Albeit not as much of a response from those surveys Saying that prices are increasing for them So that's good but it's not great in the sense that prices are indeed still increasing What is interesting is we're seeing employment contract in the services industry This is uh let's see It's been kind of hit or miss this reading So last month we had a tepid growth reading the month before that We had a drop in employment now we're back to dropping employment New orders grew to 56.1 from 55 last reading So overall ISM Services PMI a pretty solid print We are seeing this take S&P back up to the midpoint here Which means we don't really have any directional decision on this opening range We had a bit of a move lower But that was prior to the event Now we're seeing us kind of come right back to the top of it We'll see if we can decisively pierce the top You could say we're starting to pierce the top of it here Ten-year yield lowest since February 8th as well here Now we're starting to pierce the top of that opening range and head back to the midpoint Midpoint is painted on screen when you see a balance between The top two calls and the top two puts the most active strikes across the S&P options chain Being within about 20 volume of each other So it ends up generally being an area where we find balance So seeing the market climb right back to the midpoint That's not a terrible place to risk off a bit if one was trading this event You know and got lucky and and I was able to trade it to the upside But unless we start to really see more call volume building in Or more organic demand for futures and shares I'd be a little hesitant of getting too much more bullish here I'd like to see some acceptance built And then start to rally above the midpoint to want to take a long position from here Let's take a look at the NASDAQ much more choppy than the S&P Not really showing us that that same build right Let's see if it comes in a little bit later Maybe it's maybe it's just a little a little bit more lagged in the reaction But overall that reaction the NASDAQ does not look quite as good Russell is continuing to build So this is the Russell the small caps really showing us some good relative strength Versus the broader market here Gold coming off of those highs really trying again though To make a I mean just basically trying to make another all-time high here On this move we'll see if it can build into that But we did see spot prices making an all-time high in this area earlier this morning Crude building from that level we talked about earlier That 7830 pivot has been an area to watch And we're seeing that strength resume from there We also see interest growing in higher prices on the contract Euro saw a huge pop in that services PMI data So that suggests the dollars coming down which tends to be bullish for equities And then before we close out, let's just look at some of the majors Nvidia getting some rebid off of that SMCI continuing to consolidate Meta got a pop that was faded Amazon continuing to show some strength here off of its lows Microsoft just again can't seem to get out of its own way today Apple coming right back up in this huge area of liquidity around 170 This is a pretty good area of potential support And now we see Apple being drawn into 171 Where there's a lot of resting liquidity on the offer Google continuing to consolidate sideways A bit of a pop off that news And Tesla popped off that news and now rolling over just a little bit And we'll wrap it out here with Eli Lilly Who's continuing to build just coming off of that a little bit But continuing to build buyers had enough aggression To pull that point of control higher Which is pretty bullish as we build acceptance at these higher prices And finally XLE continuing to look solid Overall I'd say that that news drop changed the mood a bit here I'm not 100% convinced that it's a durable move Unless we really build some acceptance above the midpoint So I'd want to see a larger amount of the session volume profile Showing some transacting and then a move higher So far we're seeing a little bit the opposite of that Which is why I was a little cautious The other side of it is I want to see call activity Really outpace puts Right now the hot put is actually the most active contract on the chain By just a couple hundred contracts But it's pretty even distribution You can see the hot call hot put both at 8k Warm call warm put both at 6k Pretty even Which tells me that unless there's a larger moving force In futures or in shares Or in a market that's kind of at balance If you think of the auction theory I like to look at it as three states You have a market in balance Where there's even supply and demand You have a market where there's excess of demand Where prices are rising And a market of excess of supply Where prices are falling Options are telling us we're a bit in balance right now Which is another reason that the midpoint has been printed So I hope this is helpful to everyone Again if you want to learn more about my work Check out TraderAid.com and MacroVisor.com You can follow me on Twitter and YouTube Using Mayhem 4 Markets That's Mayhem number 4 markets And if you want to check out the new tool I built That you can see on screen The advanced SPX options visualizer Visit TraderAid.com slash SPX to learn more about it And to also be able to pick it up And then finally if you want to get up to 40% off of Bookmap I love this software I highly recommend it Visit TraderAid.com slash Bookmap Scroll down to the specials And you can take advantage of these offers Thanks everyone for tuning in I will catch you next Tuesday at 9am On the Bookmap YouTube To talk more about markets And Mayhem as we go back to the futures