 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week four is coming hot and this is going to be a fantastic sports weekend Not just in the NFL, but the playoff races are spicy and baseball We're talking strikeout props with pitching engine later on. We've got NASCAR and Talladega Which I may be the only person excited for but I don't care I'm pumped for that and then also a lot of fun games across week four in the NFL We're gonna break down all that here today on covering the spread starting things off by talking to Jay Zacharyson and getting you ready to bet some player props in week number four This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Friday by JJ Zacharyson Check him out on Twitter at late round QB Finds work at late round comma check out the late round fantasy football podcast JJ We are on to week number four pretty thrilled about this one. How you doing today? I'm good. I'm tired You know after after a lot of debating about Jameer Gibbs last night on on X Yeah, man, I'm doing good though. I got a lot of Dave Montgomery in fantasy So I could be definitely worse Does your life feel enriched after spending time arguing people on X last night? Yeah, it was really, you know, there's there are times where You know, you got to pick and choose your battles these days on there And that was just a battle that I decided to go in I like I like the ones where you pick the battle because you're bored like I think those are fine That was that's that's usually me during an island game, right? You're just hanging out on the couch like Thursday night I don't have anything to do the next day Right from the perspective of like Sunday to Monday, you know where things are a little bit crazier It was the three-score game in the first half, you know, that that contributes to right There's just the game wasn't very competitive and I'm just like sure You know, I'm just crossing my fingers that Christian Watson scores a touchdown And that's really all I care about at that point and then he ended up scoring So overall for me very entertaining night And I think the issue was my guy Jared golf is too efficient, you know Pedal it back a bit Jared let other let other boys play in the the the sandbox a little bit. Um, just you know, scale it back Let's not go too crazy here So we're gonna talk about week four player props with the JJ folks in specifically I'm a dolphin's builds game to start and then talking about other player props He likes this week again later on talking to Rob Friedman talking strikeout props and I'll talk nascar later on The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast these shows also do go up on the fandall youtube page and Over on fandall tv plus to watch fandall tv plus go to fandall dot com slash watch and log in with your fandall account You can watch up and adam is live over there You can also check out covering the spread the solo shot for the final day today And then also the heat check fantasy podcast with myself and brandon cadulla every monday and thursday Let's dig in now to week number four JJ and typically we don't spend an entire segment discussing One game, but I think looking at week number four It makes a lot of sense to dive in deep on the dolphins and the bills now This is going to be a thriller and I like it from a traditional betting perspective But for player props like it's kind of a bonanza as well with so many fun guys So many fun storylines with the dolphins backfield and stuff like that So looking at this game any value you see for the bills and dolphins this week Yeah, so I kind of approach this just from the perspective of like What could go down in this game and where the matchups like what does it look like for miami? What does it look like for buffalo? I think my biggest concern for miami Is that buffalo has been really good at getting to the quarterback this year their second in pressure rate Their second in sacrate that's resulted in them being the third best team in epa per drop back allowed And when you look at the dolphins they face the chargers patriots and broncos to start the season Two of those games they played unbelievable offensively obviously last week They could have easily broken the single game record for most points scored week one against the chargers It was a back and forth game. They scored a lot of points week two though against new england They didn't necessarily get it done, you know offensively to the same degree. I should say right Well, when you look at it the chargers 22nd in pressure rate denver 30th in pressure rate new england 6th in pressure rate So you're looking at an offense that you know, this is generally how it goes, you know If teams are good at getting the quarterback, they're going to be a little bit better defensively So I wouldn't be surprised as a result if we see lower passing totals for miami in this game than expected Um, you know at the very least I think that what we could see because obviously mike mcdaniel is a very smart head coach What we could see is an even quicker release from tua and maybe higher reception totals For a waddle for a tyreek and then maybe not have that match their typical yards per target their typical yards per receptions You know that we see so that's sort of my my general feel about the way that that miami offense might go Um, and then you know, if you look at the opposite side Miami has actually been pretty mediocre against the run this year And so i'm more inclined to bet overs on some of the running back props I wouldn't go with like a james cook anytime touchdown for instance because he hasn't been seeing seeing the goal line work In that offense, but I do think that a josh alan anytime touchdown on the ground You know a latavius murray as a long shot Anytime touchdown in a decent game environment where he's led that team and goal line rushes to start the year I think going that route makes sense. Um, and then, you know, obviously Just just given this I wouldn't be surprised if we see an under hit Even though I you know, even though I I think there's going to be a decent amount of points scored That's really my forte more so player props is but um, that's just generally the way that I see this game unfolding So you could kind of take your bets Based on some of those matchups latavius murray is plus 240 to score this week and like he said he kind of dominates the Backfield touches in close. Uh, josh alan even money james cook. Uh, plus 105 His red zone role was better last week But better for him was a 33 red zone share which is still below average for a running backs Even in a potential high scoring game plus 105 not enough to entice me now Like the rushing plus receiving for james cook is a different discussion because Getting a lot of work in the passing game. He's a 79 and a half there. I think that's awesome Like I think that's very attractive But I want to pick your brain. We don't see props up for uh, devon a chan yet, uh, but he mostard is up What's your general read on that backfield? What do you think we're going to see for week four? specifically before jeff wilson gets back in the fold later on Yeah, look, you know, I don't know if savon akamed is gonna gonna be active or not But I don't think that akamed is really a threat at this point anymore to devon a chan and and what He can do in that offense and what we saw this past week You know, I've talked to a lot of fantasy managers over the last week You know getting questions and such about that backfield and people are concerned about it being a committee And yes, the answer is that it will be a committee in some way shape or form That's basically every single backfield across the nfl right to me I think devon a chan is sort of the staple of that committee Like I I wouldn't be I mean he was getting a lot of work early in that game Before the game got out of hand He was still seeing just as many if not more touches than where he mostard So, um, you know, if you can see if you can find some value, you know If if books are boosting mostard a lot more than a chan I would probably go on the on the a chan side there Just because I think it's going to be more of a 50 50 split after what we saw last week Yeah, a chan's first-time snap right was 48 percent He was on the field with mostard a lot and that might decrease with waddling back but like They were Actively getting him involved. I think is a good signal for him going forward. Okay Let's uh broaden things out here and talk about other situations to monitor here fluid situations We could see some value for week number four I think the dolphin's one of the biggest one in my mind But outside of that jj. Which other situations are you monitoring entering week number four? Yeah, you know, it's tough to really act on this one because the jet's offense has been so Putrid, but Breece hall did take a step forward this past week in snap share Which is good to see because you know, he's just very clearly the best running back in that backfield Uh, but last week he played 48 percent of new york's offensive snaps That was significantly higher than than dalvin cook and michael carter And I know that sounds crazy that it wasn't higher already, but in week three, uh, or sorry And week two is basically even across the board Among those guys it was like 15 snaps 16 snaps 16 snaps between those three So, you know, I do think a negative game script this week could Mean a little bit more michael carter than we would like But at the same time I think that the fact that their backs are up against the wall at this point You know the jets they need to be competitive. They need to show something even if they don't get the win And so I do think that breeze hall is at least getting more and more intriguing It's a situation to monitor for short and then another situation to monitor We saw a lot of quotes this week out of out of the rams, uh, uh coaching group talking about kairan williams workload So kairan williams over the last two weeks has seen every single rams running back rush every single one We've had five games this year from running backs where they had a 100 running back rush air kairan williams owns two of those five games now The issue so they came out and they said maybe we should not give kairan williams this much work Which is totally understandable the issue I have is that they don't have very intriguing backups Ronnie rivers an 11th percentile prospect in my prospect model zack evans not much better. He's like 36th percentile And so I'm not sure that there's that much reliability outside of kairan williams But again, this is something to at least monitor and understand that they might not be giving kairan williams He's still gonna see you know bell cow usage more than likely But they might not give him the same type of usage that we've seen over the last couple weeks And then I think the last one to monitor Uh and to look at is mike williams and his injury So, you know, we talked about this before but when a wide receiver gets hurt You have to look at the guys who were third and fourth on that depth chart because obviously the guy who's third on that depth chart is now going to be on the field in two wide receiver sets The guy who's fourth on the depth chart will be on the field in 11 personnel or three wide receiver sets So josh palmer will be the number two at least to start Quentin johnston their rookie is now going to be on the field a lot more Uh an 11 personnel the chargers have run the 13th most 11 personnel to start the season And so, you know, I think qj quentin johnston sees a naturally bigger bump based on where he was at Uh, but josh palmer, you know, he's a he's another intriguing option He's a solid enough wide receiver Where he's now going to be on the field in a very past heavy offense past friendly offense In these two wide receiver sets in a good matchup So just keep in mind that uh, you know, those guys are going to get a lot a lot more run now that mike williams is out I think i like about palmer too is we've seen him step up when they've had keenan alan like When he's not the one like when josh palmer's the one it's not going to go great But if keenan alan's there to get attention Palmers played decently well in the situation and this year his yard for outrun is terrible, but his a dot is high Justin herbert's chucking it a bit more this year Palmer's benefiting. So although the yardage has not been there thus far I think that the potential for yardage is there for josh palmer. And I think that is a building block out want We're looking at josh palmer props Okay, let's take it now to some yardage props over at fan dual sportsbook jj. Where are you seeing value for week four in that department? Yeah, so i'm going to start off with uh, russell wilson and i'm going to actually take the under 250 and a half passing yards against chicago this week Um, you know, it's clearly hard to go under because chicago is is really really bad defensively Um, but the issue that I think that that rus could run into with this game Is that it's just not that much of a back and forth affair. You know, I know the the total is okay It's around like 46. Um, but you know, there's a very obvious chance that You know, this the bear's offense doesn't get things going because they haven't gotten things going You know all season long now rus has hit 300 yards and back to back game So I think that's why the line is set where it's set right now But their game against washington, uh, that saw 68 points scored And uh in that game russell wilson had a 50 yard hail mary at the end Which definitely skewed those results a decent bit And then obviously last week in their game, you know against miami It was a super super negative game script where they're going to throw the ball a lot because they're down by 150 points So, uh, you know now they get chicago broncos are three and a half point road favorites You know the bears, uh, because they haven't been very good this year They've actually allowed the second lowest uh pass rate in the league So I think that we could just see a situation where it's a more ground and pound approach and a more methodical approach Instead of russell wilson throwing the ball, you know 40 plus times Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense and The hail mary thing is important to note like the game script in general is important to note because like Context matters a lot with these numbers early on this year Like we've seen a lot of adam thielen buzz this week and that makes sense, you know He's had a good target share but last week they threw 58 times in that game And so it's important to keep in mind context when looking at these early season numbers and with rus They've had these high scoring games. They've had the super negative script. They're hopefully not going to have a super negative script against the bears It's like context does matter a lot. What about touchdown? Any other yardage props you like for this week jj? Yeah, another yardage prop I like is christian kirk hitting his over right now. It's 52 and a half over on fandal kirk is really good against man defense and doug peterson has actually commented on this he commented this after on this after week one talking about how christian kirk thrives In those man coverage environments But you can look at the data too last year his yards per route run against man was plus 83 plus 0.83 yards better Against man than against zone So he's just a better man A better wide receiver against man coverage than zone coverage and so far through three games He's had one blow-up game week one against indianapolis. He had a 9.4 percent target share week two It was a 34 target share week three back down to 15 percent now If you look at weeks one and three where he had lower target shares They featured games against teams that ranked 31st and 32nd in their rate of throwing man coverage out there And then again in week two was against kansas city. They've been third in man coverage rate this year So this this matchup this week against atlanta their fourth in man coverage rate I think that you know, there's no zay jones more than likely in this matchup That could boost up his target share naturally a little bit as well It's just a matchup game for christian kirk and I think it's it's there for him this week It definitely is in that game in week two they lined kirk up in the backfield a lot So they were actively trying to find ways to get him involved And I think that was successful for them and I think that is encouraging for them heading into week number four as well Let's switch our focus now talking about some touchdown props jg. Where do you see value for week four there? Yeah, I got two of them for you one normal one and one not so normal one as I do each week The normal one although it feels really weird saying this because I don't think that he's that amazing of a running back But I'm going to go alexander madison who's at even money right now as in any time touchdown You know say what you want about his play But he's coming off the game where he had an 87 running back rush share 17 target share in that game Minnesota has a decent implied team total their top 10 in the league this week with a 24 point implied team total around 24 points Madison madison has seen all of their goal line work this year And carolina ranks bottom five and rushing yards over expected allowed per rush this season And the other thing too, minnesota has regression coming in the way that they're scoring touchdowns Now their pass rates really really high, but even when you factor in that pass rate We should expect 83 of their touchdowns to come via the air Based on their pass rate, but so far they've scored all of their touchdowns this year through the air all nine of them Have come from kirk cousins So I do think we could see some regression And the way that they're scoring touchdowns the matchup is actually decent And if madison continues to get the work that he's seeing You know, obviously can go south because they might start using other running backs, but um, you know If you keep seeing that workload, you know, he could find the ends on this week my deeper play though Get ready for this Nelson agalore plus 450 as in any time touchdown. This is over on draft kings, but uh, I'm going Nelson agalore You got rachat bateman and odell beckham. They didn't practice on thursday I don't know if they're going to go this weekend. It doesn't sound good for them That's going to obviously leave zay flowers as someone who's going to see Probably like a 30 target share this week, you know against cleveland But the browns rank first in the league this year and percentage of targets funneled to the slot and agalore Has run the most routes from a percentage standpoint Out of the slot for baltimore this year Now, I do think there's a possibility that we see him more in the perimeter than usual because rachat bateman and odell beckham are injured But even still that means that he's going to be out there in two wide receiver sets He's going to be out there a lot more frequently, you know Obviously this game might be a little bit ugly just in terms of the amount of points scored and such But I do think that at those odds it's at least intriguing and at least kind of a fun bet He's more involved than you would think slash hope So you kind of got to do it and that's where the odds lead you I get it for sure He's still kicking in 2023. That is jj. Zachary So make sure you check him out on twitter at late round qb find his work over at late round dot com and check out The late round fantasy football podcast as well jj pleasure to talk to you as always Good luck to you and week four. We'll talk to you again next week. Thanks Jim Alrighty again find jj on twitter at late round qb to check out all of his work and make sure you check out The late round fantasy football podcast for podcasts per week over there on that feed It is also a huge day across major league baseball though Let's bring in rob freedman pitching ninja and talk about this sleep because rob my goodness I cannot remember a friday the final friday of the regular season mattering as much As this one matters. So you've got to be geeked about this weekend Absolutely I mean it's kind of weird picking k props and everything now because some guys are getting working other guys may go deep And they're big games and they're not so big games. So you got to figure it out Which is a fun challenge It's a fun challenge and it it varies so much team to team like the twins right now are like three strikes And you're out for the pitchers like you throw three strikes cool See you getting the dugout rest up. We'll see you next week But like it varies so much team by team. So like how much do you have to dig in to like Team philosophies player incentive stuff like that to kind of know Where the traps may be for this week. Absolutely a ton like yesterday I got burnt twice with sonny gray and zack wheeler. I was hoping they'd go a little bit deeper I needed one more inning out of them basically to get my case But uh, they didn't and that's like I knew going in it was going to be tough. So yeah, you do have to Make educated guesses right and figure out and some guys that are totally out of it. They're gonna let run so You know, you just don't know it just depends what matters Yeah, um, I think the true twist for sonny gray would have been if rocko bell deli had been like Hey, we're gonna have you go 110 this time because he's gone like 90 the entire year That would have been the plot twist is like actually letting sonny gray cook a bit If they had done that instead, I mean, I would have been in for it. I needed a couple k's from them That would have been nice like he looked good. We'll talk to rocko try to get him on the phone for that one This is rob freeman. You can find him on twitter at pitching ninja find his work on mlb mlb on fox peacock and fandall sports book as well And rob let's dig in now to the strikeout props that you like across friday night as you mentioned A lot of stuff to juggle when you're looking at these for this week So which strikeout props are you on tonight considering all of those factors? So i'm doing a parlay, you know, I Every day i've got to do it for the entire season. We're gonna keep going I have you say kukuchi six k's or more Uh carlos rodan six k's or more and kyle hindricks four k's or more. I mean four k's come on. He could What's the number for rodan again six? Okay, so six plus for kukuchi carlos rodan for six plus and what's the final one again? Um, kyle hindricks or four k's or more I think they all have something going for my usually would not pick kyle hindricks and a k prop But uh, you know what four k's doable. He's done it a bunch like consistently. He's four five six Game that matters for him. Let's go I don't know if you can find a game more important than this one for the chicago cups I got my cubs hat on i'm trying to manifest and play off baseball just down the street from me So we're trying to get some playoff baseball here in chicago Hendricks over three and a half is minus 104 and for a lot of situations you could expect them to take kind of like a Playoff mentality where they'd be okay yanking the starter early if they're not effective with kyle hindricks I think the experience is there. He's been pretty effective still so far this year despite not being a high strikeout guy and the brewers They're coasting man. Like they're in the playoffs already So I think you've got the right formula there with hindricks who still feel good about him despite the fact He's not typically a big strikeout guy Exactly like I think four is doable Um pretty especially in a big game like this against a team that really You know, they they're coasting they just want to get it and and this means a lot to them I don't know that getting keyed up matters to kyle hindricks. I actually think he's not going to be keyed up He's kind of like that. That's the point. Yeah, exactly But I think that you know again against a team that's kind of just Chilling Yeah, I like it You look at the brewers line up the first day after they clinched they're chilling like that was that was pretty obvious there And I think honestly rob we we should hope they're doing the exact same thing for tonight Let's go back to talk about you say kikuchi because once again a lot of importance in this game And kikuchi is a guy we discussed a couple of times here on the show because he's been So much better from junon effectively kikuchi to get five and a half strikeouts is plus 118 and rob I just like that number plus 118 over five and a half for kikuchi I think that like you can have some issues But like the plus 118 helps alleviate at least for me some of those issues Yeah, absolutely go deep into the game. He'll rack up k's. I think it's something like eight of his last nine outings He's had six k's are more big game for him Um, and I think he wants to continue to finish strong so I can see that number I mean i'm i'm hoping Yeah, I agree with that one as well. Let's finish up here by talking about carlos rodin in that game and I know the yankees have been eliminated. They're not they're they're not involved But this is a player motivation type thing, right rob where that is literally my mindset 100 percent Like I think rodin. He's he's shown some signs of the old rodin. He had a nine and ten k game Pretty recently and just to finish strong like it means a lot to him He's a very prideful dude. He doesn't he did not want to be out for the you know the season this year and and struggle I want to see him finish strong. I think he will finish strong and I think six k's is doable against it And I think from the yankees perspective You don't want to peddle him back for next year You want to ramp him up because like you want to make sure it's not a huge jump in innings from 2023 to 2024 So like you kind of need him Out there for as much as you can get in order to kind of build in that base From a forward looking perspective It's not even just like the the fact that rodin wants this himself matters But I think the yankees also have an incentive to let rodin stay out there a bit longer Yeah, and and I mean show the fan base what rodin can be rodin wants to show the fan base what he can be And to ramp him up. I think there's multiple reasons why he should do it, which means he probably won't But I think we've got that you you've nailed my logic on these pigs And rob here we go plus 690 on the the three leg parley for yusei kikuchi to get six plus strikeouts Carlos rodin six plus and kyle hindricks over three and a half strikeouts as well So it feels like it was destiny that this would be the parley for today Exactly and those are pretty solid. Uh, it's very nice. I do they are very nice odds indeed Okay, so those are the three strikeout props rob likes for today Now we haven't been getting a lot of the uh strikeout leaderboards here recently But I do want to talk about it rob just in case we do wind up Getting that leaderboard up for today when you look at the pictures on today's slate And again, it's a weird dynamic because the motivations are so odd Is there anyone you're kind of looking at as being a Someone who could push to lead the knight in strikeouts. It wouldn't surprise me to see rodin do it. I think he's Cease is another guy who's shown some flashes of being seized from last year And again, it's another situation where I can see him wanting to finish strong He's not happy with the year he's had and to just go out with some fireworks He could he could do it You know and then looking at the other guys, I see ryan scares me Yeah, like he obviously can do it, but he's not going to throw enough innings to do it right like I think there's no chance I think he goes four max like that's what I say. That's my concern. I don't even know what is I think you could like like we don't do unders here, you know, but like I think you look at I don't really agree with you like that was the way I was thinking. I think six is too much to ask for him He'll get pulled before that unless he's I mean, you know the the best bet for the over is he has two innings We're case aside or something like that, which he could do. So I guess it's totally out of play Yeah, yeah, totally. Um, and then you have like, you know, woo's got a big game in front of him Yeah, it's been a little uneven, but he can strike out a bunch of folks and uh, You know, he's somebody I would take a look at as well And it seems like woo has been like trying to tinker a lot again Um down the stretch here too, which makes sense as a young guy trying to find that groove But like I think the thing about him is once he finds that groove he can't have Spike games that's what you need to lead the the day and strike ads you need spikes You need upside and woo at least does have that very much in his wheelhouse That that's what would excite me about him like when he's hot And he's electric, you know, he's gonna get the you know, the crowd feeding feeding off all that He may be that guy who steps up today and has a big game But it's this is like this is a fun one to pick for a k-leader because literally no idea who's right But I think that you're parlay you've got you've taken like the proper like steps to ensure like okay player motivation team motivation, etc Etc So you say kikuchi six plus strikeouts carlos for don six plus Kyle hendrix four plus and as we speak right now that parlay is plus 690 over at vandal sportsbook That is rob freedman make sure you check him out on twitter at pitching ninja find his work on mlb mlb on fox peacock And of course right here at vandal sportsbook as well rob enjoy all the baseball this weekend It's going to be unparalleled and how fun it will be and we'll talk to you again in the very near future Absolutely. Take care You as well that is again rob freeman find him on twitter at pitching ninja to see all the delightful gifts that we get from tonight's games We're going to dive into some nascar and talladega here in just one second to close that this week But first snap into action this nfl season with fandal america's number one sportsbook right now new customers Get 200 and bonus bets guaranteed when you place a five dollar bet That's 200 dollars in bonus bets win or lose. You've been thinking about joining fandal There's no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options, including spreads player props totals and more So visit fandal dot com and kick off the nfl season fandal official partner of the nfl Must be 21 plus in president select states including now kentucky. Welcome kentucky to the fold fandal Official partner of the nfl fandal is offering sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc First online real money wager only ten dollar first if i was required bonus issued as non let's rob a bonus bets That expire seven days after receipt restricts and applies see terms at sportsbook dot fandal dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal dot com slash rg in colorado iowa michigan new jersey Ohio pennsylvania illinois tennessee and virginia call 1 800 next step protects next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg dot org slash chat in connecticut 1 809 with it in indiana 1 805 2 2 40 700 visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at organ maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline m a dot org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why or text open why in new york Let's finish up for this week by talking about some nascar because they are in talladega and not a lot of tracks much more thrilling than that and this is the second race in the round of 12 for the nascar cup series playoffs so Motivation is very high across the board for this week and it's a lot of chaos I don't think it'll be rested up because the playoff race in fact in datona We kind of saw that ramp down a bit because everyone's trying to race for some points or at least a lot of the field is so I think we might see a more tame race both because of that and because talladega is less chaotic than datona in general It's a wider track. There's more room for error But win odds are still super flat for me and at sportsbooks But it's better I'm better able to justify betting a favor to talladega than I am in datona And the one I like most this week is joey legano at 14 to 1 legano is not in the playoffs so There's always that risky could decide to push his teammate ryan blaney to a win in talladega, but We've never really seen team penski playing ice Legano abradak has a laoski tangled when they were teammates in datona a couple years ago blaney and synderic tangled the date 200 500 Last year So like you know team penski can undergo undergo some shenanigans and the the possibility For blaney and legano to be one two on the last lap does exist because I have blaney as a favorite in my model and legano Is number two But the outfit that actually plays out like that are pretty low legano Fantastic super speedway racer. So that's why I'm okay kind of overlooking that one Possibility legano got a win in atlanta this year. He almost won datona would have won it had the caution come out a little bit sooner He is a three-time winner in talladega 10% win rate for his career in talladega And fords in general have been dominant on pack tracks this year I had a bet earlier on this week in the betting guide over on number fire for ford to win at plus 130 It's down to plus 110. I technically do show value there. I've got 49% so still some value, but Prefer to go with legano individually with where things stand right now there So, yeah, legano could push blaney to a win I just don't think the odds that specific scenario happening are super super high So my model has legano at 8.2 percent to win Is implied odds are 6.7 percent That's a big enough gap for me to bite on legano and plug him in at 14 to 1 On the right is not on a guy. You probably expected to hear about in a betting recommendation section for a super speedway race That's actually martin truex jr. At 25 to 1 He has infamously never won on a super speedway and it's over a very large sample So it may seem very odd But he's not as bad of a pack racer as someone like kyle larson and his odds are actually longer than larson's larson is 20 to 1 Whereas truex is 25 to 1 I don't think that should be the case because truex has a couple runner-ups in datona Lost eric jones by like a nose when they were teammates joe gives racing back in the day at datona And he also won stages in datona both last year and this year So I think he can win and can run well on pack tracks. He just hasn't so far Truex though does run up front. He's had a top 13 average running position eight times in 11 next-gen era pack races So he runs up front doesn't always finish there But I think he has the ability to do so and it's like I'm saying that he will I I've got him at 5 to win which means there's a 95 chance that truex does not win But the implied odds of 25 to 1 are 3.8 percent So my odds are better than then the implied odds and I agree with them that we're taking it a bit too far with Downgrading truex at a pack track. So I agree at the model here where truex is undervalued at 25 to 1 to win this week. So the two cup series bets I like are legano 14 to 1 to win and truex 25 to 1 If you can get forward at 130 or longer, I would still take that. I think that'd be my favorite bet But um with where things stand right now at fandal will go with legano and truex We also do have the nascar crassman truck series in taladega for this week And it's a similar setup where odds are super flat and I can't get to any of the favorites My model has christian neckis is their favorite, but he's 10 to 1 to win at fandal sports book applied odds at 9.1 So I can't get there. I do see value in some longer shots though Uh, and I think that these are spots where I agree with that the model is saying those two longer shots are matt crafton 30 to 1 and tyler anchorum At 40 to 1 and we'll talk about anchorman a second but with crafton My model actually has him quite a bit of a bonus implied odds He's 5.3 for me versus 3.2 Implied and he's like very good runs on pack tracks so far this year crafting like 29 laps in atlanta Which is a semi pack track. It's racing more like a mile and a half recently But still a pack track to me He had a sixth place average running position in datona as well He had a fifth place average running position in in taladega last year Now he's never won like truex on this track type across 42 races between Daytona taladega and new atlanta But I do think that he has the upside to do so based on the runs. He has had Both here recently and this year specifically on the pack track So matt crafton 30 to 1 a bet. I do agree with that as well as her anchorum He actually has a teammate in this race whereas he typically does not his teammate is jake drew And jake drew does not have experience on pack tracks But for some reason jake drew has the same win odds as anchorum now It's not a negative for jake drew. I'm just confused why anchorum would be down here given that he actually has shown Some feistiness on tracks like this. I have increment 4.1 to win his implied odds are 2.4 He has had 10 career races on either datona taladega or the new revamped atlanta He has had a top 14 average running position in nine of those 10 races He has had a top 10 mark six times This is the finishes but a lot of us due to very late crashes for anchorum He was seventh in datona this year. He was tenth in taladega last year 11th in atlanta last year as well I think he can definitely do it. She needs to put a full race together. So anchorum 40 to 1 I just think he's pretty talented on this track type and I think the odds dumped encompass that so For cup series. I like legano 14 to 1 truex 25 and for the truck series Give me craftin and 31 and anchorum at 40 to 1 That is all that we have here for today and this week on covering the spread big Thank you once again to our guests for today JJ zack arisen and rob freeman fine jj on twitter at late round qb and fine rob on twitter at pitching ninja I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fandal research at fandal research having a fantastic weekend everybody enjoy the playoff Effectively baseball enjoy the nfl action enjoy taladega if you're watching that too We'll talk to you all once again next week. This has been covering this spread right here on the fan dual podcast network