 a presentation of TFNN. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648, internationally at 727-873-7618. Let's go to Ben in San Jose. Ben, what's going on, brother? Hey, Tom, how you doing, man? I'm doing great, man, yourself? I just wanted to thank you and your team and everything. I've been using your technique with the 10-minute charts, watching the VIX, and just making a fortune here on the futures. Isn't it interesting? That's awesome, man. It's wonderful. Thanks, Tom. I appreciate it. OK, man. Have a great one. Have a safe one. Now, Tom O'Brien. Welcome, folks. This is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We have five days a week. We have seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the internet at tfn.com. Always remember, folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever. You focus on growth. Hope everyone's having a great day, safe day. Let's make it a great night, folks. Ask for what you want. Find the courage to ask for what you want. Others have the right to tell you yes or no, but you always have the right to ask. Likewise, everyone has the right to ask you for what they want. And you have the right to say yes or no. Mug it wise, let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industries down 81, Nasdaq off. No, Dow Industries down 51. Nasdaq down 81. S&Ps off 11 and a half. Gold, gold contract up $21. 20 cents trade at $19.92 an ounce. We have silver up 32 cents, $23.46 an ounce. Light sweet crude up 53 cents, $73.36 a barrel, notes and bonds. Attendant, no. Down 11.6, trade in 114.20, the 30-year down 14 at 129.29 and Kingdala. Kingdala, she is Kingdala down 421, trade in 102, 436. The euro is at 108. The yen is at trading out at a price point of 130 and the British pound is at 123 to one US dollar. Our phone number is 877-927-6648. Give us a call folks. Want to know what's going on in your world and the world of the S&Ps, let's take a look at them. Well, first let's look at the E-minis. There's gonna be a tricky close out here because what we don't have right now is that, let me show you what we have here. This is gonna be interesting here because this is like the do or die point of where we are. And the reason being is that we take a look at the C-mini, what you're gonna see is this. See, we don't have a high volume low. That the low that was laid out there this morning was just light volume. What we had now on the way up though, watch what you have. What you have, we just went over the downdraft that was created out here at 1.30 this afternoon. Now it's not having the juice on that. Let me see. Well, we just stopped in that 10 minute bar. We're only, no, no, we're finishing it. So this is gonna be wild because the number you wanna keep your eye on now is 3995, right where we are. Okay, so in another minute, if it closes under 3995, what will happen there is that it'll go after the lows again. The reason is that that bar there has 36,000 contracts and we're running into that bar right now with only 18 and you're also running into the bar from the open which is 52. So that normally what ends up happening is that, well, let's put it this way. When you hand me say, okay, we're going after the low, what ends up happening is that's a high volume low and we don't have one right now. So when you don't have a high volume low, you just go on the opposite. That's what's so cool about time in the trade. Just going on the opposite and say, okay, man, what are you going against? And the X100, we go take a look at the NQs. What do you have with the NQs? Come on, baby. Nope, I want the NQs. There we go, okay. So we get the NQs up. So inside the NQs. Yeah, see, this is the one that's interesting. Yeah, same setup really. That's not a high volume low. What we just did, you got over this bar that was the downdraft. The downdraft had NQ, that's right, okay. The downdraft had 12,000 contracts. We just got over it with 7,800. And you're actually going into this one here of 22,000. So I expect we're gonna see some action here in the next couple of minutes. That's the real bottom line. That's what normally happens with these. You got, yeah, we're just gonna start another bar. We just started another bar right now. Dollar, we're gonna take a look at the dollar out here. What do we have with the dollar? The dollar, now it's amazing out here actually, is that you have the market down and the dollar is given the market breathing room and it can't take it, well it can take it because when I show you the dailies, we'll pull them back with tremendously light volume. So if we look at the dollar, what you're gonna see with the dollar, the dollar's down 431 ticks. We're running into, we were rejected last Thursday as well as how it came off the bottom. And then if we go into the note and bond market, we take a look at the note and bond market, this note and bond market, you have the 10 year, we're gonna take a look at the 10 year here. The 10 year's down with 1.1 million contracts. There we go. And this is setting up really nice, man. Okay, so check this out. So the 10 year's coming back with 1.1 million contracts. Well, it's coming into 2.8 million contracts, 3.3 million, 4.4 million. We pull this back. Let's just go see what the 0.382 is on this. Okay, we're approaching a 0.382. We almost got there. 0.382 is 134.15, 114.15 rather. We hit 114.17 thus far. So we'll see if this baby wants to go into the 0.50 and it could go into 0.50 easy. You come into the 0.50 like this and you reject lower price. This thing will set up an ABC structure on the way up. Gold, we take a look at the gold contract out here. Gold's in the consolidation. That's what this baby's doing. You know, you got gold caught a bit out here today. You're 1.1 million contracts. Now the problem is when you see this, and this is why this consolidation will stay in place. Well, okay, I don't know that this is we've trained. Yeah, we changed contracts. Well, you're going into, that's not bad though. No, that's pretty good actually. That was real good. You're up 21 bucks. You got 1.1 million contracts and you go on into 101.19 contracts. So that's a good setup. SVB, check it out. And I want to congratulate our man, Frank, and I'm sure we got other Tigers and Tigeresses. Bottom line, they can close their shot positions. Look at this. Look at this for trade, folks, right? Bottom line, anyone that was shot SVB, okay? Bottom line, you couldn't close the trade. Well, guess what? You can close it all day today. They got it up, 74 cents was the highest today. A 28 cents is where it is at now. And just from the last day I was trading, that's down 105. And the last two days, it's down 271. So there's some action for you, huh? How do you like that? That is amazing. And if you haven't been in the Tigers Den, folks, it's a buck, a dollar. Go in the Tigers Den, okay? That's the type of action that's inside of the Tigers Den, okay? And the only reason we started the dollar is that we don't have any scams in there. Just come on over, it's a great community. You got a lot of Tigers and Tigers. There's a lot of people that know exactly what they're doing. We all know there's no crystal ball. That's the real bottom line. But guess what? There's a huge amount of knowledge. Everyone's into risk reward. You wanna really get your head straight right over there. Some of the higher volume equities out here. Oh, Signature Bank, they open to, look at Signature. Oh my God, I forgot about Signature. Signature's down 69 bucks. So it was every shot. Signature also, you can buy it back at 11 cents. That's a kind of sweet one also. Stay right there folks, we'll come right back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T-bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex Report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive. He just hosted Forex Strategies and Fundamentals, What is Behind, the Tiger Forex Report. For all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger Forex Report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. Free at 1-877-927-6648, internationally at 727-873-7618. Welcome back, folks of Dow. Dow Industries right now trading down to 83. You get the NASDAQ off 80, S&Ps are down 13 and a half. Let's get over to our man, Mr. Basil Chapman, as we do each and every Tuesday at 20 past the hour. Don't forget, folks, that Basil does an outstanding show here. Every trading day, 10 to 11 Eastern Standard Time, also has a great newsletter, the opening call. Now, it's very easy to get Basil's newsletter, folks. Come over to our website at TFNN, you hit Newsletters, and then you're gonna see it on the left-hand side, two down, you can get the opening call for one month for $149. You can get it for six months for 6.95, which is a savings of $199 at 22%, and you get it for one full year for 11.95, which is a savings of $593 of 33%. Now, they all come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, folks, and on top of that, Basil has about 15 archives out there so that you can understand exactly how he looks at the market each and every day and how he can ride that wave. Basil Chapman, how are you doing? I'm doing well, thank you, Tom, how are you? Good, thank you, good. So what do we got with this market here? So there are a couple of things that I'm looking at. Number one is if you're looking at the Dow chart on the left, that's the dating. The middle is the weekly and the monthly is on the right and we've got another couple of days to go to wrap up the month of March. So far, the month of March has got this long-legged doji-type candle. We'll see where it closes, but the weekly chart has thus far held this support to have like all this inside track, pro-pallin zone. It was a repellent zone for ages. Now it's been holding very nicely, and we'll see what happens. What I want you to do is to show you this. I've discussed this with you before, but I think it's worth going through it again. There's a particular technique that I use. I call it the dark news cloud cover. Let me just see if I can get this placed a little bit better than that. Okay, there it is. So I'm going to just shrink it a little bit so you can see. So this chapwave dark news cloud cover, I use it for the Dow. Every time that I've noticed the market started to stall, for a very long time, there's been pretty much the same news, but very often the market ignores that same news. And another time, it just takes it very seriously. I call that, when it makes highs, I call it the internal high and the residual high. Think of it as an earthquake and the aftershock. And I do the same thing at the bottoms. And you can see that it's been going on for years. Now we've got these H type patterns at the bottom. We look here, it is back in 2020, this is 2022. It makes an internal low, balances up, the bad news comes in again, and it goes all the way down, makes a residual low. And it does that over and over. So this is the longest that we had gone sideways. This is from November of 22. I drew in here dark news cloud DNCC for the dark news cloud cover and was filtering over the markets. It's like a dark cloud. And that cloud can suddenly, the sun can shine or it's just a heavy, heavy downpour. Well, it stayed in this range for a very long time. Even within that, it made a little internal low and a residual low. That was in December and then it was retested again a little later than that and it ran to the top. Now what we've got is this internal, now I'm going to expand this again so that you can see it's a little bit clearer. Now what I've said is there's a chance that this internal low that was made right here on the 15th of March at 31,429, and I'm using the Dow, not all the charts have the same pattern, but I'm using the Dow because it's something I follow every single day. Yeah. Ran up and then it came back and it retested just three days ago, higher than that at 31,805. So my contention has been that there's a chance that that low that was made in October is such a low with a huge rally that ran up to the highs that were made and that this particular high was made on December the 13th and the Dow 34,712 and the other indices were very close to that date. But every time the market rallies strongly, we get this really bad news and this last instance it was the banks, but my contention has been that we could have this rotational market that says that there's some strength, enough strength to say that this October low so far is going to be, is going to hold. That's the way I'm looking at as it is right now. So that every time there's a big rally, that's when we get the bad news, but we keep making a higher lows. And just recently we started to make low lows to the ones that we made in December and January, but they're still when you think about the market and the seriousness of the news, I'm kind of impressed. So I just wanted to show you that there's one way that I'm looking at the market and I'm looking at it as the internal low and we've just made a residual low. If we take out this low that was made on the, what did I say it was March the 13th, I think it was, right here, yes, March the 15th at 31,400, if we go below 31,200, all bets off because that'll say whatever the news is now, it's serious enough that we could go down towards the low of October. All right, so what we're just saying is because of the news was so bad that the market still really held up, right? I'm saying two things. One is that because that October low was so serious and the spring to the upside was so powerful that now what we have is that all the lows that we seem to be making with all the bad news, thus far as held very nicely above the October low. So yes, that's the one thing. The other thing is that we've got a diversion in the indices themselves. And that's also very fascinating because look, he has this Dow chart holding above the weekly chart above the inside track propellant zone. If I go to the S&P, it's a slightly different chart. Oops, I got a type S&P right there. There it is. So if I go to the S&P, it's a little different. It is holding, but it hasn't held as well as, look at this, this is fascinating, the QQQ. Because the QQQ is testing, has tested the left side low, high of 313.38, there's the Nasdaq NDX100, that was the high of the second of February. We just went to that, we're testing that. And the weekly chart is way above that inside track repellent, which is now propellant zone. So it's really fascinating to me to see how this is unfolding. And you know, I always look at the SMHs as a guide and the SMHs just make this little double top, but they've run very nicely so they take a bit of a digestive phase. So I'm looking at this and saying, if the rotation continues, and for subscribers, I'm trying to find areas that have held very well and that are almost, to a certain extent, independent of the overall market. So we're looking at a market that says be very specific, look at certain areas. If they're holding well, that's a really good sign. And if they just, I mean, like the XLF, this is, you can't dismiss it. This is very serious stuff with the financials, you know, taking a dive like this. But if you look at the dreaded H pattern in the monthly, so far the XLF has held above the October low of 2959, but it does have this H pattern. So I'm not being dismissive, and I'm not being too sanguine by looking so positively at the market. But I think for me, there are some good signs that we're trying to do that for subscribers so that we can be under the radar and have some nice trades. And folks, it's very easy to get Bows's newsletter. Come over to our website at TFNN. You're gonna go to the newsletters, you're gonna see it on the left-hand side. You can see that opening call. You hit that button and you are off to the races. Bows, you have a great one, safe one, and of course we look forward to show you tomorrow morning. Thank you, Tom, same to you. Thank you. Stay right there, folks, we're coming right back. We have the now industries down to 87, Nasdaq's off 83, S&P's off 14 and a half. I'll be right back. Sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger Zen, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Zen, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Zen at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back folks to Dow. Dow Industrial is at down 105, Nasdaq's up 89, S&P's down 16 and a half. And so they had the hearings in the Senate today about SVB management folks. If you got to catch any of it, it's absolutely amazing. Well, it shouldn't be amazing, okay? Unfortunately, bureaucracies move like at a snail's pace and you can see it even in the testimony, okay? So this is gonna come down to the point. So check this out. This was what was amazing in the context of the bar. Bar is the supervisor of the Fed. And now he only started the job in July. But check this out, man. They were asking him when they give us certain letters and when the first letter went out. Well, the first letter went out to Silicon Valley in 2019. So that means that where we are in March 28th of a 2023, I think, right? Is it for 25th, whatever day it is today, okay? But the bottom line is that you're talking about 2019. And yeah, they sent a piece of paper saying, hey man, you got to clean up your act. Now, what's intriguing about that is that then there was a follow through question with the letter had said that you can't go into, you can't do any mergers, you can't do any of that. But you know what they did? They kept buying the freaking mons. I mean, it's like insane because they were topping them out in 2022. So the duration was mismatched in 2019. Well, no, in 2019 they were saying that the aspect that they had taken in so much cash so fast, okay, that there could be a problem. Bottom line is that, you know, man, I mean, that's actually zero supervision. Well, maybe, well, actually it isn't zero supervision. They were supervising them, but they didn't do anything. Okay? You got to hear some of this testimony, man, because it's like crazy, man. It's like, so picture this. This is what, you know, there's something folks that I picked up, I actually picked this up. This is what ended up happening. I picked this up one Ronald Reagan called Russia's Bluff, okay? That there's certain things that you think are so big and they're not, and it's not even close. And in this particular case, what you have here is that you think that these regulators and these supervisors actually are doing something, okay? Well, guess what? I'm not gonna throw them all in the same bag because there's so many civil servants that are working so hard, it's unbelievable. And I don't wanna destroy that system. There's no way, okay, because you need it. But when there are lapses, there are monster lapses. And the problem that just, you know, as a civilian hearing that, the laps went from the supervisor online, their bosses, the board of the San Francisco Fed and the Federal Reserve Board. Because then the next question was, well, when did you find out? So check this out. You talk about the board of the Federal Reserve found out the second week of February when the San Francisco Board and the staff of the San Francisco Board gave them a review of what's going on. Well, you know, if that's how our bureaucracies work, you know, that would be like absolutely insane. So, you know, they're saying that, okay, they're gonna come out when we report May 1st. Well, why can't you come out when we report right now? I mean, it's quite clear what absolutely happened. There was zero supervision. They sent them letters. Letters didn't mean a thing. Kept getting worse, worse, worse. And the real question is inside of the banking community is that how many more are actually out there? You know, we'll see, but pretty wild. And I'm sure that, you know, the bar, the vice-supervisor bar, is just elated that he only got the job in July. Because it is hard to, it's not gonna, it's not on him. There's no doubt about that. What it is on for sure, excuse me, is daily in the San Francisco Fed. There's no doubt about that. And of course, they were asking him that, you know, you had the CEO on the San Francisco Fed. And that's how, we know this, okay, that the Fed was set up by banks for all banks and all the rest, okay? There's no doubt about that. So that I wasn't surprised about. And you know, there was a couple of questions there. It says, okay, well, you know, and he answered the question there, but oh no, if it's your own bank, you can't, you know, be involved in it. That's like saying that you hang around with a bunch of guys and girls, right? And all of a sudden something happens and they say, oh, we gotta put Johnny Jo and Janie over here because they're involved and they can't give you any feedback. And it's like, what are you kidding me? You hung around with them all your life? You can't give me any feedback? That ain't even close folks, okay? That's just not how life works, okay? Bottom line, implosion, you know. And the one question they were so scared to answer, this is a trip, is the aspect of can this happen to any bank? And of course, you know it can happen to any bank folks because what ends up happening is that, and this is how the legal system set up, if all of us want to the bank to go get our money at the same time, it's not gonna be there. That's normal, I don't worry about that. I worry about the context that what has happened in the last 20 years is that banks have turned into huge hedge funds. That's the reality, that's how it goes, man. Wouldn't you love, picture this, we have thousands of investors and traders out there. Wouldn't you just love to have billions of dollars, right? Saying, oh man, let's hit this button, this button, this button, we're gonna do that, we're gonna do this, and if we're right, hey, we're gonna make more money. If we're wrong, knock, knock, knock. Hey, Mr. and Mrs. Public, you gotta come help us out. It's, you know, and then it's not gonna change. I wish I could say it's gonna change. They'll change a little in the context of it, and they're always different. Man, when these things go down in the tubes, they're always different, but that's the essence of it. Let's go take a look at some of the, actually, let's go take a look at the, because we just got, the S&Ps are dealing with the same number, we got over it, we just came down and now it's popping right back up, so it might give us a clue as to what this wants to do coming into the close. Okay, so we just did it here. You can see we were dealing with the bar that had that 39.95. You got down to 39.88, you rejected lower price, you get seven minutes. So it really matters what happens with this bar right here. This bar, you know, if it can't make it to the tick, because see what it did is it spiked it. It spiked it, it spiked it with lighter volume, but then closed below it. Now when you do that, the spike I'm talking about, it spiked 39.95. It had lighter volume and closed below it. When that normally happens, normally what's gonna happen is that you're gonna basically see lower price. Now we have this bar that's gonna have good volume, but yet it looks to me like this thing wants to close over that area. Close over that area, they'll run this thing. And because of the light volume characteristic of the market right now, bottom line, that would be saying that somehow, let's see, it takes only Tuesday too. So that's gonna be interesting, it's only Tuesday because the fact of the matter is at being only Tuesday, this market could, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and we're coming into winter dressing. You could start getting some action here, which would be really wild. Let's go take a look at the NDX 100 because the NDX is leading us down today. NDX right now, you got JD.com up 4.5%, Datadog 3, Rostos 2, Taken away from it, Lucent off 7%, LAM Research 2.6, AMD 2.5. I believe AMD, we're coming out with numbers after the close today and that'll move markets. No, no, no, we're not, it's just down. Stay right there, folks, come right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com, TFNN Educating Investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Biotech is booming, but for how long? Whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course, trade LABU or LABD, Directions Daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit DirectionInvestments.com slash Biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact Direction Shares at 866-476-7523. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor For Side Fund Services, LLC. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers' for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American NTSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. And you know what another amazing thing about this, folks, is that think about how many bank analysts there are. And I was just laying out there the whole time, the whole time, right on the balance sheet. It's pretty amazing, man. I mean, it's like, and it shows you, so the cool part about that, if you can take that side of it, is that when you do your homework, and when you start digging into things, there are things out there, it's like the better mousetrap. You think everything's been invented, then all of a sudden something's invented. You say, oh my God, I can't believe that this thing has been in front of me the whole time. Because that's the case. That's the case in these banks. There's no doubt. And as I said yesterday, there are going to be other banks that the same thing that you're gonna see the news articles. Now, what will end up happening, like anything else, is that whoever's onto it, they're gonna make sure that they're shot the positions first before they release that, hey, man, why don't you go look at this one? This one here also has a problem. And then the context in that one will be meaning that it gets publicized. As something gets publicized like that, it's like, okay, then do people stop pulling their money out of it? You know, we'll see. We'll see where the whole thing shakes out. We gotta take a look at some of the higher volume equities out here. Let's see what we have. And it's a low volume market out here for sure today. We have AMC, or this is a trip. AMC, it's like, the New York Post is reporting that AMC might be, Amazon might be interested in buying AMC. Let me just look at this chart for a second because that is like so bizarre, it's the same. But you never know. I don't know why they buy, well, who knows? This chart, let's see what we got here. They're trading five bucks. You see, the thing about AMC, right? I mean, you see what it's done here, right? If we go back to 2021, January 2021, it had strength. It came off the bottom of strength. Yeah, meme stock at all, but guess what? It came off with strength. You had 3.2 million shares. Well, there's no sellers at AMC right down here. So this is an equity of pulling back with light volume, but I guess that context there is that you want to buy into the rumor mill because the rumor mill is always there on a continual basis. You have, let's see, where we are. You get advanced micro, that's down to 254, and video's off 231. You got Google off 151, Occidental's up 254. Yeah, let's go into the oil market and see what's going on here. So the XLE, nope, not enough volume. Unreal, so that's not gonna move either. You know, that, yeah. So the XLE, you know, you can see this contraction. It's a big contraction out here. 20 million yesterday, only 13 million today. That's not a good setup. And what you had, now let's look at oil. See how oil certainly got a pop. Okay, so oil's having a hard time getting inside. See, this is always cool, folks, okay? These ranges, right? Oil's having a hard time, let's see. Yeah, it's having a hard time getting inside this 73.51. That's 73.51, that's your range. But you know, you don't get inside that, then you may have set up a very large ABC structure on the way down, which would be really weird. You know, because what I was talking about yesterday is that I feel that, if we go to, let's go to the note and bond market, I feel that the note and bond market is topped out. And if that's the case, that the Fed is gonna look more to save the banks than the aspect of inflation, which they're gonna have to. I mean, that's what it comes down to. Yeah, you take a look at the 10-year. Let's put it this way. I gotta put this as to, yeah, you pull them back with tremendously light of volume. That's the bottom line. Let's go take a look at Microsoft. That's been the king out here, no doubt. Microsoft right now, pulling back with light volume. This is, man, if you tell me to look at this, man, on a short-term basis, this market looks like it wants the higher price again. This is crazy, man. There it is what it is. Google, let's go take a look at Google. Google's coming down with some juice. Yeah, Google couldn't make it. So Google's into the bar. The bar we're into there is 10, well, it's just getting into it, actually. Google's 101.17, 101.97 was the beginning of that bar. The deeper that gets into it, the more problems come from Google. And we go take a look at NVIDIA. NVIDIA out here, yeah, pull back with tremendously light of volume, you know. We just take a look at NVIDIA. This, you're only down 252. Now this has been on a one-way run and that's what NVIDIA likes to do. There's no doubt about it. Let's go take a look at the Silver Market SLV. See how Silver's set up right now? Yeah, see these are moving, but this is a contraction with tremendously lower price, with lower volume, you know. So the cool, this is what the cool thing is. Inside the Golden Silver Market, folks, the consolidations are huge. If we go to the GDX, GDX is doing the same thing today. We're almost at the top of the range again, but it's dying on the vine. Yeah, see if you get, we're taking out 27 million, you get 19 million and you're going into 39 million. But guess what, it's near the highs again. But hey, it wouldn't be bad if we consolidate here, you know, I don't know, another couple of weeks, you know, whatever, have a pullback, pullback with light volume, as I said yesterday, the 31 to 29, 36 is game here. And then on the US, I want to go to the 30 note. Let's see, USA. Because this is bizarre that even, you know, I'm thinking that these bonds basically have turned. You're pulling back with 195,000 contracts, it's like contract volume, man. These are, these, the note, yeah, this is tremendously light volume. You're pulling back into like 900,000, 376,000, and you're only doing 195,000, you know. So what you have happening here, and see the difference is, this is not like the, picture this, the inflation era that you had in the 70s, right? Yeah, the rates went to 14 and a half. Well, they went to 14 and a half, but the banks, you're at much smaller numbers, and the banks weren't leveraged to the hilt. Well, you can't do that this time. You can see what happens when you go to basically four and a half percent, right? It's a total implosion. You can imagine 14, 14, just so you can understand something. The banks are already under water because the Fed and the Treasury has, this is the Treasury of the Fed. Yeah, no, it's the Fed that's allowed them to do this. The Fed has allowed them to say that, okay, I have something that's worth 80 cents, but you're gonna give me a dollar on it. So that's the Fed's deal, right? And, you know, the aspect of if rates went up, every time rates would go up, that trade would go deeper and deeper into the hole. Well, what do you think's gonna happen? Every time rates would go down, what's gonna happen with that trade? The balance sheet of the banking system is gonna go up. That's why they haven't taken down First Republic yet. That's what I'm figuring. They're looking at First Republic, picture this, you know, the three biggest banks gave them, what, $30 billion? I suspect what the game is here is that somehow, you know, they're gonna give them more time. And if we ever got just a stop in rates or a rate cut, you'd see First Republic pop in a second. Okay, because it just pitches that you have a trade on. And that trade is predictable on where interest rate structure is going. Stay right there, folks, we'll come right back. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back folks. There's a great question in the den about, what are the thoughts about what banks should be allowed to invest in? See, this is where this gets really cool because they were invested in something that you get your money back, right? But the duration was long, wrong, okay? In a monster way. The problem, and it's a regulation, the problem is, and we'll all get this in a second, the problem is that they can go from the aspect that, okay, this is a trade, like all of us. This is a trade, this is a trade. And then all of a sudden, oh, this is an investment. Well, are you a trader or are you an investor? We know how this goes. You're a trader until it goes against you, oh, then I'm gonna invest. That's exactly what the bank did, and that's what they shouldn't be able to do. They, legally, what they can do is that when something goes against them on a trade, they can put that in a different pile and then it doesn't go against their balance sheet. They can say that, okay, it stays in one section of the balance sheet and that would go against them every quarter until they decide that, oh no, hold it. You know, when it's good, they always keep it on that side of the balance sheet. When it's bad, they put it into the other side of the balance sheet. So, and I'm talking about debt because it's all debt that they had. And that, they're gonna have to figure out something with that because that in itself has what brought this to where we are right now. You know, the next thing is gonna be the commercial-backed mortgages. And that's gonna be regional banks, and that's where I suspect that we are gonna start seeing the breaks in interest rate structure because the Fed knows it. See, the Fed knew this period. And bank analysts should know it also, man. That's the bottom line. And what we will know, even with a Bloomberg, I gotta get my, pull this down a little, meaning do some work on it because the amount of commercial-backed mortgages that are coming up for renewal are huge right now. They're always huge. Now, what saved it in 2007 is that the rates went down dramatically. And bottom line, nothing happened. In fact, they were buying more stuff, you know. Always remember, folks, the bank and Claudia hot out the book and run you over and thank God, there's always another trade. Health happens in prosperity. Have a great night, have a safe night. Come back and visit Tommy tomorrow morning. Nine o'clock, great show. Ria, look at him, folks.