 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Now that the Super Bowl is in the books We are officially into NFL draft season Of course, there is also basketball hockey NASCAR, etc. etc But it's the NFL draft and it's still two months down the road But betting markets starting to trickle out over at Fandall sports book and I've got a model that looks at quarterback prospects by the numbers and tries to Identify which guys may go high in the draft and I think there may be some value on the board for this year Of course, we're gonna lean on other experts throughout this year to talk about non-quarterbacks talk about Overall draft betting process and stuff like that But I do think this model it can be pretty helpful when when trying to identify who will be the QB Wonner potentially QB 2 in the NFL drafts. We're digging to that model today what it says about the top-end guys in this year's draft class and Dig into the markets Fandall sports, but can try to identify where there is value early on throughout this process Welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Here to dig into early markets for the 2024 NFL draft try to find some value in those early markets over at Fandall sports But we'll dig into all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast yesterday I dug into key takeaways from Super Bowl 58 from a betting perspective talk about Public betting splits we talked about live betting with rushing quarterbacks and also Dug into when each bet totals try to get the best value out there because beating the market on Sundays is very very tough You can find that on the covering the spread podcast feed And of course as always over on Fandall TV plus to get Fandall TV plus go to Fandall commis slash watch and log in with your Fandall account You can also download the Fandall TV plus app on Amazon Fire Apple TV or Roku devices Get buckets with your first bet on Fandall America's number one sports book because right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 bet That's 150 bucks if your bet wins bet on all your favorite NBA teams and players with quick bets live same-game parlites exclusive props and more Just visit the Fandall app and shoot your shot Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and President select states first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is now a drop of bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt See terms at sportsbook.fandall.com Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas dark casino LLC gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG in Colorado Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio Pennsylvania Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7777 over the CC Pg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1 809 with it in Indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 was a KS gambling help by common Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Louisiana Visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming Hope is here visit gambling helpline MA org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 For 24 7 supportive Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 70 hopin y or text hopin y in New York Now before I look at the market, let's take into what this quarterback prospect model is It's something that I built out so I could rank quarterback prospects primarily for my dynasty fantasy football teams I want an idea of which quarterback for more likely to be successful in the NFL By looking at their collegiate resumes and my research had shown that Collegiate resumes did matter That's their age at the day of the draft their experience level and their collegiate efficiency so I built that that model and It happened to correlate pretty well with draft capital now this model includes all quarterbacks invited to the combine Since 2010 so it's over 230 quarterbacks in that time on average when the first overall pick has been a quarterback They've ranked in the 90th percentile of that model Only one of those first overall picks has ranked lower than the 86th percentile. That was Jimis Winston Historically the top quarterback in the quarterback prospect model has been the top quarterback in the draft or the first overall pick in the draft Pretty often this is the pre draft version of the model Which does not include any scouting sentiment and scouting sentiment matters a lot as you know if you bet the NFL draft It's less about stats more about what the scouts say It just happens to be that when you combine these things together It does tend to correlate pretty well with what scouts say before you even filter in any analysis from them Five out of 14 draft classes in this quarterback prospect model the models highest ranked quarterback has gone first overall Not the first quarterback. They've gone first overall five out of 14 times They went second overall three separate times that does include CJ Stroud last year in other words If you are a well-regarded quarterback by the model your odds of going early in the draft are very high So in general The model has done a good job in the past of identifying which quarterbacks will go high in the NFL draft So let's take a look at the betting markets over at Fandle Sportsbook right now at Fandle Kayla Williams is minus 1200 to go first overall that is 92.3 percent implied odds and I Can't say he doesn't deserve that because he does he ranks in the 88th percentile of the model Despite what some people have called a down year this year. He's still a really good numbers and he is younger He's very experienced and he's efficient. That's why the model likes Williams a lot and scouts like him too. His expected draft position over grinding the mocks is 1.1 So they look at an aggregate of all mock drafts kind of use a wisdom of the crowds type model and look at the average of where a player goes in those mock drafts And on average Williams goes 1.1 now That could entice you to lay minus 1200 92.3 percent Maybe that's light on a guy who's gotten the hype of Williams for as long as he has we've seen Drake may maybe fall off a tiny bit You could be potentially talked into seeing value of minus 1200 Personally at this point in the process. I can't get there. I think there is too much unknown and too much left to be decided at this point in the process so personally Williams at minus 1200 despite the fact I My model likes him. I like him. I've watched film on cable wins looks really great So like I understand why the scouts are here. I agree with the model that he's very good, but a little bit too high for me And it also does lead To some potential value elsewhere now that person if they're gonna Summersault over Caleb Williams to go first overall Kind of has to be a psycho to get ahead of him given the scouting sentiment and the data around Williams That's where we get to Jaden Willie Jaden Daniels Daniels is actually the top-ranked prospect by my model of any quarterback invited to the combine since 2010 among all guys and that's weird because my model cares about age and Daniels is not young He'll be 23.4 years old on the first day of the draft That is older than average both among first-round picks and among all quarterbacks of the combine So from an age perspective Daniels does get dinged and that matters a lot But he also tied the record in NCAA history for the best single-season adjusted yards per attempt this year at 13.6 that adjusted yards per attempt does not factor in rushing and as we know Jaden Daniels is Really really fun in that regard when you account for that you can look at total QBR DSPN that accounts for rushing accounts for schedule accounts for Sacks and that's been one of the criticisms of both Williams and Daniels despite taking sacks Daniels total QBR was 95.7. That was almost five points better than anybody else in the entire nation this year only two guys were above 90 and Daniels at 95.7 and He is very likely to add a lot of value with his legs so overall My model adores Daniels again despite the fact that he's old he is the best quarterback in my model based on strictly the data the data loves him and That does matter here of the top 12 quarterbacks in the pre-draft model So again looking back from in 2010 to 2023 all quarterbacks invited to the combine of those 12 quarterbacks The top 12 guys Five have gone first overall and two more have gone second only two of those 12 quarterbacks have fallen outside the first round Those guys were Jaylen Hertz and Russell Wilson who did wind up being successful NFL quarterbacks so Players that the model likes as much as it likes Daniels do tend to go very high in the NFL draft They don't go high. They do tend to wind up being successful quarterbacks. So the model likes Daniels a lot and Guys in this range do tend to go very high in the draft I want to go back to what I mentioned earlier on where that is that the top ranked quarterback in the model has been the first Overall pick in five out of 14 drafts. That is 35 point seven percent Right now Daniels is 30 to 1 to go first overall at Vanduul sports book the implied odds at 30 to 1 are 3.2% and again 35.7% of the time the top guy in the model has been the top guy in the draft as well Obviously betting Williams or Daniels to go first overall means he had to leave frog Williams And that seems like a very tall task based on scouting sentiment and the data liking Williams as well but I do at least think it's within the range of outcomes given how much of this process we still have left to play out the fact that You know people have been trying to tear Williams down for a bit by talking about very odd things I don't care about But like there has been that chatter out there at least we still got a long way to go in the process If Daniels does run at the combine, which he might not he's probably gonna put up a sick number if he does though And his passing only metrics which ignore is rushing were really really nice And it's not Daniels is getting no Scouting buzz because Mel Kuiper junior DSPN had Daniels going the second overall in his first mock lands your line of NFL calm had him second in his as well So yes, that doesn't mean he'd still to catapult Williams even in the most optimistic mock drafts right now But when the implied odds are 3.2 percent I'm definitely not opposed So I do think there is value in potentially betting Jaden Daniels to go first overall at 30 to 1 Given the blend of the data what my quarterback prospect model says and the fact that he's already getting a lot of scouting buzz from respected names like Kuiper and zero lie The other route could be to bet Daniels to go second overall There he's plus 170 Drake may currently the favorite at minus 155 Daniels second at plus 170 than a deep fall-off after that The implied odds of plus 170 are 37% if you were to combine that with his odds to go first overall You're about 40.3 percent odds of Daniels going either first or second in this draft I think that's probably a little bit low overall and as a reminder Top 12 quarterbacks in the model have gone either first or second 67% of the time So you could consider betting Daniels to go both first overall and second overall putting a larger wager on the second overall Because it's a higher odds of that actually happening in the smaller wager on first first overall to get yourself a bit of a latter situation Where you benefit more should Williams wound up being the first overall all pick and you do get a hedge here in case Daniels does not beat out Caleb Williams that first overall pick Personally, I have not bet on Daniels to go second overall yet I have bet him to be the first quarterback taken which is effectively the first overall pick and I do think betting him 30-to-1 to go first overall is at least intriguing. I have more wishy-washy on betting him to go second overall because It's it. I think that I Kind of want the higher variance number in 30-to-1 Given how much of this process there is still left to play out I think there will be ways to bet him to go second overall or in the top two later on in the draft so You could bet just the second overall pick if you want to avoid Caleb Williams entirely But I do like taking the higher variance approach at this point in the year Which is taking him to go first overall I am likely to add something on Daniels to go second overall whether that's via a Draft pick over under a specific team to draft him stuff like that But I haven't done so yet. So the routes right now for Daniels are to bet him to go first overall 30-to-1 or To bet him to go second overall plus 170 or to bet both putting again a larger rager on the plus 170 to go second overall smaller rager 30-to-1 In order to get some upside in case he does leave frog Williams personally I'm opting to go with the first overall pick alone at 30-to-1 for right now But I will look to add to that later on as we get more info and get more clarity on What the standing is between Daniels and Drake may for that QB to discussion Other quarterback related props aren't showing a ton of value yet for me But I didn't want at least highlight a couple I'm gonna have my eye on because these markets go up and they do move fast So I think it's good to have a bit of a primer out there as far as players only watching pretty closely The big one is JJ McCarthy My model likes McCarthy a lot because he is young decently experienced because he was getting Reps that quarterback if he wasn't starting as a true freshman and then started the past two years went to the college football Playoff both the years and he was efficient Yeah McCarthy ranked third in the nation last year in total QBR behind Jaden Daniels and bonix both those guys Roughly three years older. I guess Daniels only two years older, but Bonix is almost three years older than JJ McCarthy So he did put up good numbers in total QBR Despite being the youngest guy in the top six in this class and it's not just because McCarthy had This really solid run game and this great defense He had a 13.6 adjusted yards per attempt on third and six or longer nobody else in this class was Anywhere near that and it's a top three number among all FBS drafted quarterbacks since 2010 So an obvious passing situations McCarthy was very efficient and he is getting pretty good scouting buzz Belkai Virginia lands zero line and a Brugler all had McCarthy in the first round of their initial mock drafts Daniel Jeremiah did not And Jeremiah is a very good track already super plugged in with the scouting community so I put a lot of weight in what Jeremiah's mock drafts say and That's a big concern For taking the plunge on McCarthy right now. I would love to bet on McCarthy to be a first rounder I'm guessing that'll probably be minus 200 if it does open up But even minus 200 that'd be a value in my eyes. I think because of the data-loving McCarthy. He's actually He's in with those first round first overall picks. We're talking about before Jane Daniels It's not as high as Jane Daniels in the model again because he's young Experienced and efficient as well all at the same time. That's the model once ideally McCarthy does check all those boxes McCarthy has gone above Knicks and three out of our bow Knicks and three out of four mock drafts mentioned above again Kuiper zero line Bruegler and Jeremiah so if I can get a match up between McCarthy and bow Knicks I'd find that pretty intriguing if you compare the markets for bow Knicks and JJ McCarthy. I'm guessing They'll be decently close in how people are viewing those two guys within the top part of the draft because a lot of the same teams are popping up on Team to draft player X over at Vanduul sportsbook So I wouldn't be shocked their view pretty similar and I would be very interested in betting on McCarthy If he does get it if we do get a matchup with him against bow Knicks I'm not sure if we'll get that market because it's hard to predict what draft markets We will or will not get but I'm gonna keep my eye open for JJ McCarthy stuff I don't think he'll sniff Caleb Williams jade and Daniels to Drake may like I'm not taking a match up with him Versus Drake may despite the fact my model likes McCarthy a lot more than they But I do think that McCarthy should be pretty firmly quarterback for and he's looking like that initially Right now McCarthy 11 to 1 to be drafted by the Atlanta Falcons I find that kind of intriguing Falcons are drafting pretty high, but You know model likes him scouts seem to like him a little bit. So I'm not firing right now But I did at least look at it and that is one that does interest me if nothing else So for right now within the NFL draft primarily looking at the the jade and Daniels stuff 30 to 1 to go first overall potentially pairing that with the plus 170 to go second overall But to give myself a hatching case. I can't get over cable with Caleb Williams, but then Basically going back to the NFL draft tab every day and seeing which markets are offered JJ McCarthy to try to exploit the fact that my model likes him a lot and Overall scouting sentiment on McCarthy doesn't seem too bad as of right now So initial look there at the 2024 NFL draft Which is going to be a fun one to discuss over the next two and a half months That's all that we have here for today on covering the spread a really fun show plan for you tomorrow Dr Nick Giffin will be joining us from the action network to break down the day Tona 500 from a betting perspective I could not be more psyched for that both to talk to Nick and then also to break down the day tona 500 I'll talk about uh, the Xenote series and truck series In either the thursday or friday show we'll talk just cup uh tomorrow with Nick So big week in nascar here on covering the spread as well. Make sure to subscribe Uh to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast to get those shows as they go live each and every week Day if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating as well Don't forget check us out on the fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis. You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and Check out fandal research on twitter at fandal research. I want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you. Your bets across tuesday. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down the great american race This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network