 Thanks very much Heather and hello everyone. My name is Coco Warner. I work at United Nations University and I'm excited to present some of our research findings together with my colleague Kevin Henry from CARE. There are three things that I'd like to talk to you about. First of all, what were we doing? Well, we do research at United Nations University with a big body of collaborators, CARE and many of you, and we're trying to find out how does climate change affect society and then what? What happens? And so in this particular work, which was funded by MacArthur Foundation and the AXA financial group, we were trying to understand when households have trouble in part because of climate change, when they have trouble with food security and livelihood security, what do they do? Is migration one of their responses and what can we learn from that? So under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk management strategy? Well, first of all, what matters to affected households? Now what I'm going to show you when I showed Heather this she went like this Because I'm about to show you our research, but I think you can get some interesting insights So let me just walk you through that. A lot of times when people think about climate change, they think climate change Something bad happens. It's like X leads to Y Right or Y leads to Z What we'd like to add to that kind of understanding is that climate change and what we looked at was changes in rainfall variability the interact with human society and One of the reasons why that's important to understand to to thinking about climate equity Climate justice gender and things like that is that you can understand adaptation Until you understand the people and the systems that climate change affects and that's what we're trying to trying to do here So what you see here is we're looking at rainfall variability Changes in that rainfall variability. That's part of climate change. We're trying to understand. How does that affect? things like food and livelihood security and What impacts does that have in migration and then from a research perspective we add in all of these kind of different things Rainfall variability affects food production. It affects crop production and livelihood raising and that of course affects where their households have enough food to eat and enough food to sell and that affects their household economy if They don't have enough food to eat or not enough money to buy the things that they need They may migrate when they face these kinds of risks. So let me go on to the next slide Our research is starting to help answer a really important question. Is migration a good thing or is it a bad thing? Is migration part of adaptation or not and Similarly to what I just said the answer is it depends on the household and it depends on their characteristics So let me just walk through two of these first boxes here resilient households and vulnerable households Resilient and vulnerable households both struggle with changes in weather and climate change But resilient households have a number of characteristics that allow them to adapt and become in the best-case scenario Less and less sensitive to climate change over time Both resilient and vulnerable households use migration. They move But the results are different. So for example Resilient households when they say when they send a migrant, it's usually a son or a daughter Usually in the early 20s that son or daughter has better skills They usually have three to five years more education than their parents and when they go out they get a job They get education and they send money back to their families and their families use those remittances to invest in education and better health and livelihood diversification and So instead of just being farmers for example that rely on rain They're able to diversify their livelihoods over time and that makes them in best cases less and less sensitive to climate change It makes them more adaptive and more resilient The resilient households here you see three kind of columns Why we divided it up so much as it depends on the migration outcome But first of all these households look like this. They have less access to social institutions Sometimes they're headed by long household head often female less Education less access to land less access to all of the kinds of things that we know build resilience Their migrants are the head of households usually in their mid 40s. When did they migrate? They migrate during the hunger season to buy food or to go out and get food It's a really different profile if that head of household is successful in getting food or remittances They send it home and the family can survive another day or week or season But bit by bit. It's very possible that the hard one Development of that family and community and country have been working so hard to get Get zeroed in if the migrant isn't successful in getting food Often you see families particularly mothers eating less so that their children and other family members can eat more They take their kids out of school. They sell their productive assets, etc. etc So resilience and vulnerability play a big role in how migration is used Let me just tell you one or two stories These are the areas where we've done our case studies and if any of you want those case studies We have some CDs and a few publications at the back of the room and at the end They'll tell you where you can download the soft copies So you see we've done work in Guatemala Peru Ghana Tanzania and four case studies in Asia And so it's really exciting to be here India Vietnam Thailand and Bangladesh So what did we find in some of these countries? Well, Thailand is the that tells us a story of some of those resilient households in Thailand The government has in has has invested in widespread food security enhancement programs They've diversified livelihoods and other kinds of opportunities for people So that when we went and asked him about migration in Thailand people told us we use migration in ways To build our resilience and that was good news. This by the way, it's just a map of the mobility patterns that we found I'm gonna show you one or two more examples One example Heather And if you want to look at these more you can get our publications Vietnam provides a contrast in Vietnam the communities that we worked with were largely landless had few a few Opportunities for livelihood diversification. They didn't have great great skills So a lot of times the migration patterns that we saw there were from one farming area To another farming area and what you often saw there was Agricultural labor would begin competing with each other now with climate change. There are some questions What if you have? Movement of people from areas that become less habitable to areas that are still habitable You get all sorts of interesting dynamics and pressure and Potentially people becoming worse and worse off. So there are lots of questions that still remain to be answered Maybe as a last point of outlook We were able to present these findings at the climate negotiation Oh, and we've had a great chance to talk to people like you in the meantime And they ask us so what do we do and that takes us back to the purpose of this session It's ironically not a focus on borders and migration But a focus on people and how they're affected in their systems by the adverse impacts of climate change So focusing on what matters to them focusing on livelihood diversification Food security and enhancing adaptation options is really important Migration is one of a number of ways that people manage risk and it's not a bad thing per se But what we want to make sure is that mobility is a choice and not a matter of force So that focus on building resilience becomes more and more important now There are some last comments which my colleague Kevin Can comment on in terms of equity climate justice gender and all of those important things that we need to know to find out Who's being affected and how can we help them?