 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Good day and big times in World Cup action because we got USA versus Iran coming up today We're recording right before that match. We will not be discussing that match We're gonna talk some World Cup with Dr. Ed Feng getting his read on some takeaways pre USA Iran We'll talk about that match tomorrow on the show with Ed as well talk about some huge college football games And later on today, I'll be giving my first look at NFL week 13 This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Feng find his work at the power rank calm and the football analytics show as well Ed happy match day to you. How you doing? I'm doing pretty well recording this before the US game and excited for Honestly all the World Cup that is about to happen It's been kind of rough obviously because there's a lot of work to do with American football Haven't caught quite as many games as I like, but I've been sneaking some in so it's been it's been fantastic Yeah, like I said, we'll talk about that US match tomorrow on the show when we go through the college football Conference championships. We'll talk about those tomorrow on the show. We'll break down that game there But wanted to begin more broadly here at and talk about other takeaways you had From the World Cup thus far we had a check-in last week to talk about your initial takeaways in the past week Or so what has stood out to you in terms of how it impacts the way you view this this event from a betting perspective Yeah, it's been pretty interesting like XG really hasn't been a great tool yet expected goals It's the system that quantifies the You know basically the probability that any shot goes in so you add up all those probabilities and you get an expected number of goals There's multiple sites multiple sites. There's multiple accounts on Twitter that you can follow but You know, there's there's one account XG philosophy that said that you know XG is not doing a particularly good job of predicting the outcome of winners and that just means there's going to be regression there And we're gonna we're gonna see that be a more useful tool heading forward So, uh, you know, it's been kind of fun to follow that one of the you know, one of my favorite matches was uh In Germany Spain over this weekend and the Germans really needed a win and then they went down one nothing and Spain really dominated the game in terms of possession and I thought played a lot better than Germany But Germany is still Germany and they created plenty of opportunities They did get the equalizer and it was interesting to see even though Germany really got outplayed They really didn't play the game that they wanted to They had a higher XG in that game. They were able to create some high quality chances despite not having barely any of the possession At least compared to what they normally get. So that was a fantastic match We'll talk a little bit later a little bit more about that group, which I find fascinating and Yeah, it's been a lot of fun So when you're talking about the X the the expected goals not being super predictive You're thinking that's fluke-ness, right? Is that kind of what you're saying where you would expect that to revert back towards expectation going forward Yeah, absolutely. I I do I do think it's a useful tool I'm trying to think of some other examples, but I mean USA versus Wales was pretty slanted. I think that was because of a penalty Depends on which source you look at some sources Put the penalty separate whereas others included in the XG and it creates It's like he's huge discrepancies. Absolutely. So a penalty kick is three-fourths of a goal no matter who takes it no matter who is in The who no matter who is goalkeeping and and that's an important thing to Recognize about XG is that it's agnostic to who is taking the shot and who's Defending it tries to get an average over all those things. There are certainly players Like ladle messy that have exceeded their XG over a pretty broad sample of games But yes, Rhino Hanlon is definitely when he puts stuff up on On his Twitter account. He's the author of net gains, which is a fantastic book that I highly recommend that just came out You know, he tries to take out penalties and you should do that Basically penalties tend to be pre-random and not predictive. So, you know, I think us whales Yeah, whales had the better XG in that game But if you take out the penalty kick, it was pretty even and I even thought that was misleading I think the US played better was definitely had some chances in the second half But I didn't think they were the best of the best of chances. So as with every metric and tool that you're gonna use it requires some nuance and Yeah, we'll see I Definitely think it's I'm definitely interested in using it as a tool moving forward for sure And we'll see if that does regress as the event advances But let's spin this forward now and talk about the betting markets right now in the world cup when you look at the markets Whether it be individual matches the next couple of days, you know, the latter stages the group betting where you see in value right now Yeah, absolutely. This is Well, if you don't follow soccer it might not seem like a very square bet But I think if you follow soccer, it's kind of a square bet So Germany needs to be Costa Rica to make it into the group stage They are heavily heavily favored to do that. I Think the markets imply something like an 87% chance that they win outright and Germany is a is an over team. They write much better on offense. This stretches all the way back to Euro last year you can look at a lot of things that this is this is an over team and With this Costa Rica match just Okay, so if they win they need to win and then there there is some potential, you know if if So Spain loses which is unlikely to happen the Spain loses the Japan Then they would be in a goal differential battle with Spain because they would both have the same number of points They both have four points Spain actually be Costa Rica seven nothing. They're not gonna quite They're not probably not going to score seven goals. That is unlikely, but Anyways, the reason I mentioned that is there's a lot of incentive to run up the score here because it is going to be a matter of goal differential if Japan ties Spain then it also comes down to goal differential With Japan if it is a matter of goal differential with Japan then then Germany should be okay It's a matter of goal differential of Spain. They're they're probably not okay Anyways, the point is that there's plenty of incentive to score Germany is an explosive offensive team I like over three and a half goals. So usually the 50-50 point is at two and a half goals This is such an odd game. Just being the last match of the group stage with the different incentives that the kind of 50-50 point is Is at three and a half goals, but at Fandal right now, it's minus one 18 to go over I'm roughly estimating about 55 percent to go over three and a half goals in this game I think there's value. It's kind of a square play, but I do think there's gonna be a lot of goals I do think Germany busts out. There's so much talent on this team Costa Rica is not good and Costa Rica, you know, it's interesting that and they've had an elite goalkeeper and Navas for a long time play a long time at Real Madrid Has been with PSG the last couple years actually hasn't Touched the field for his club yet this year. So Costa Rica is bad. Germany is good. I expect this to go over three and a half goals Now when you're calling it a square bet, are you saying that because it's an over on a very high total? Is that what leads you to say? It's kind of like a square bet to spank being a good bet. Yeah I mean, I think usually the idea is that you're betting unders on totals And I think in general that is correct And honestly, like I mean just look at the scores that we've seen in this world cup Like unders have been hitting like like mad. There haven't been a lot of goals So, yeah that I think the the idea that Germany scores goals is You know, I mean They're kind of an over team. They're kind of like a public team. Yeah But I do think it's gonna happen I think the number supported and I like a lot of goals in that match Okay Well, Ed, we're gonna have you on to talk some more World Cup tomorrow break down the US versus Iran match We'll talk about some other soccer stuff But also more importantly, we'll get to a talk about your Michigan Wolverines talk about them against Purdue We'll break down that and talk a lot of other good stuff But Ed it was a pleasure having you on for today and double those event for this week. Enjoy the match We'll talk to you once again tomorrow Thanks, Jim talk to you soon. Alrighty again check out Ed on Twitter at the power rank You can check out his work at the power rank comment check out his podcast as well The football analytics show will have add on again tomorrow to break down some college football and talk about that USA versus Iran Matchup we'll get to my first look at NFL week number 13 and also recap last week in just one second But first make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course are enough a podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcasts You name it you can find us there and while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating Review as well all these shows do go up on the Fandall YouTube page as well the NFL week 13 is Sunday million for Daily Fantasy is Officially live on Fandall showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine-player roster while staying under the salary cap Then follow along using Fandall's live scoring feature can be for your share of $1.25 million in cash prizes including $250,000 to first place all for just a $5 entry fee Sunday's approaching quickly said to Fandall and smith your line today eligibility restrictions apply go to fandall.com or download the Fandall app for more Details, let's dig in now to week number 13 in the NFL and break down what my numbers are saying there and For me, you know, you see these these numbers on Twitter like oh, you know Underdogs are covering at a 55% rate or underdogs or if you're you know betting the money line every week You're have this ROI. I can't stand those numbers. I think they are Ridiculous books are gonna account for that eventually stuff like that. I do not actively seek out stuff like this Just so happens this week that my three favorite bets are all money Money lawns and underdogs, so I'm not seeking that out. I hate stuff like that. I think it's ridiculous. It's not predictive It's not gonna be helpful for you long term But does happen to be where my numbers are pointing me towards three underdogs on the money line this week And that does include both New York teams I got the Giants they're at plus one away to Fandall. You can still get a better number than that elsewhere So shop around on that facing off with Washington my betting models I've got two now both of them are equal both adjusted for injuries personnel stuff like that Kind of running both in tandem the rest of the way to see which one back test better to decide which one I want to use heading into 2023 So they're competing models right now, but both of them have the Giants slightly higher than Washington right now They played well last week despite not having Wanda Robinson there. He's missed some time before so it's not a huge deviation for them I think Darius Layton's a pretty good player and having him with Saquon Barkley That's potentially enough to keep this team afloat despite all the injuries. They've had they've got a rest advantage over Washington here They're playing at home Washington's stretch where they've won six their past seven games has been very impressive but the passing offense Once you adjust the teams they faced hasn't been that good I know they're like, you know, we're getting Taylor Heinecky fever, but I'm expecting Regression hit eventually and that could wind up being here. My number is again at the Giants favorite in this game So I'll take the money line of plus one away to shop around see what number you can get on that But I Think that the Giants the best number you can get is going to be a pretty good number on them with where things Stand right now other New York team obviously the Jets they're plus 1 34 I fandal to win Plus 140 a couple other spots against Minnesota, and I will take that as well I have the Vikings favored by 1.39 in my traditional model my old-school model the one I use for my Preseason numbers this year, but the new model actually has the Jets favored in this game I'm not sure I'd go that far personally that seems a little bit a little tough But I also understand why that's the case the Jets defense in that model ranks first in the league by a pretty decent margin and their offense Has been better than you'd think in early downs a lot of their issues have come on late downs where you know Zach Wilson had his issues you would get under pressure and make some tough mistakes So late downs been tougher, but early down efficiency. They've been pretty good. I have not bumped up this offense to Mike White yet because I I'm not even he's you know a former fifth round pick He was a third string quarterback come into the year there reasons those things occur So I don't want to bump them up for Mike White I actually have a bump down for the Jets right now because the rushing game probably gonna suffer with no breeze hall It has suffered no breeze hall Michael Carter. I don't think we'll go in this game either So I actually have the Jets bumped down from their baseline here but if white actually does provide a boost that give us even more value here and I Do think the new model is overvaluing the Jets because it's so high in our defense But I don't disagree the point where I pass up the money line of plus 134 They're implied win outs there forty two point seven percent and again even my model that isn't as high on them Shows the Jets as a value at this number. So I'm not bumping them up for Mike White I think it was fun when he had Sunday. I thought that it was encouraging to see his teammates be jacked up for him and stuff like that I'm not bumping them up for Mike White Despite not doing that. I'm still showing value. So I don't think there's a shot They get worse than what they were that seems like a tough go. I think you can even is probably more likely if they say even They're a value. So I do like the Jets plus 134 chop around again plus 140 I think it's probably the better number you can get but even a plus 134 if you're restricted to just fandom sports book I would take that as well. So both giants and jets showing value for me on the money line The other money line I'm taking is the Dolphins at plus 172 against the 49ers I am very worried about the Dolphins offensive line in this game because Karen Armstead is not going to play That's a big deal against a very good defensive line and I have that baked into my numbers I have a downgrade for the Dolphins in for Armstead being out awesome. Jackson's also not fully healthy But even with those Downward adjustments and I can't get their win odds down this low The Dolphins ranked second in adjust early down EPA per play by my numbers and again That is adjusted for injuries. So that does account for Armstead being out The Dolphins also top 10 in success rate on late downs They're ahead of the 49ers in both those numbers again even after a bump up for the 49ers due to Christian McCaffrey and The defensive side does heavily favor the 49ers and we haven't seen the Dolphins with a lot of tough tests defensively They did face Patriots week one played well there They beat the Bills at home good win there. Well, though that was largely based on Buffalo being kind of weird so We haven't seen them in spots like this both their tackles are banged up. That's tough But I just think this number is too long. They're implied win odds at plus 172 or 36.8 percent I've got them above 40. So decent amount of value in the money line That's why I'm going there versus the spread right now spread is three and a half at Fandle It's four at some other spots. I don't mind taking the points But by my numbers the better values on the money line and our goal is better is not to you know just win the highest percentage of bet that's to make the most money and Because of that I'm okay taking Where are the best edge and the best edge right now is on the Dolphins with their money line of plus 172 I think that's a very forgiving number. It's one that I will take I Understand if you want to go to the points I understand if you want to pass entirely because of the Dolphins offense line injuries I can't push back and then at all, but I do think that the Dolphins are the correct side here I would also say I haven't bet this yet, but I think there is some value in the total over 46 and a half There's no wind as of right now in Santa Clara So some value there have not pulled the trigger on that one yet But considering it the total of 46 and a half for the Dolphins of the 49ers I am seeing some value in a few favorites for this week the three of them where both my models agree that the Favored team is undervalued are the Bucks the Browns and the Packers. I have an injury adjustment in for Tristan worse than the Bucks I will likely wind up betting them against New Orleans. They're at three and a half right now. I Think they're I'm most likely to go at the money line at minus 186. I've not taken that yet, but Weighing it pretty strongly. I'm guessing. I don't know if the worst stuff is in the market yet I think it's known that he's not gonna play But it doesn't seem like it's fully accounted for in the market yet So I kind of want to see if that number can get a little bit more lenient But probably gonna bite on the pack the Bucks at some point Packers Minus three against the Bears. I'm assuming for now that both Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields play But I don't have a great read on the situation. So I'm gonna hold off there for now. Maybe we'll get a better read later on this week and I can Hopefully bet it before the market moves too much. But as of right now, I'm gonna hold off I'm not gonna bet the Bears I could see myself going at the Packers at minus three But I want to get a better read on the injury situation there before I actually do Wind up going on that one. So holding off in the Packers at minus three right now As for the Browns, I have value at minus seven against the Texans on them That offense was really good under Jacobi percent. So if I get them a bump up for Deshaun Watson One of my models actually says they should be favored by 10 in this game. I Just don't feel like I want to root for the Browns this week Especially in this game specifically it feels kind of gross to root for them. So I'm likely just taking the bucks money line at minus 186 Maybe I'll go spread it minus three and a half It's kind of getting in those markets before I decided to dive in if you want to bet the Browns I lay the seven instead of going to the money line does great out is One of the better bets this week. I've got their cover odds are on 58% in that matchup. So I Just have troubles getting there. So If you want to do it, it is I bet that grades out well, I just have troubles rooting for them this week So probably not going to get there But if you want to go there Browns minus seven does seem to be a good bet right now based on what my numbers are saying So that's what I'm locking in right now I've got the Giants money line at plus 108 the Jets money line plus 134 again shop around in both those Dolphins money line plus 172 and then likely to fire on the bucks at minus 186 or minus three and a half And then showing value on the Browns minus seven if you want to dive in there. So we'll see again We've taken some risks on some money line under dogs, but I my numbers say that's the right way I trust my numbers. They've been grading out pretty well recently So we will go with that route despite the fact it is a little bit risky and the reasons risky is pertinence We recap last week what went down here on the show. We'll get to the NFL stuff and all that in just a second Let's start things off here on the college side of things good week for Ed We've talked to edit for the World Cup stuff. He had a good week last week in college football He had TCU minus nine and a half and over 47 and a half in their game against Iowa State The total closed at 45 and a half. So line moved against him, but TCU went over that by themselves They won that game 62 to 14. So they covered easily. They hit the over by themselves Great read by Adam that one. It was a weird reversal where he's had a lot of good movement this year We didn't always get the results this time didn't get the movement vehemently emphatically got the results. So good on Ed there good week for him I was close to a really good week Good week I had a good week overall and I felt good about the process behind my week overall The reason I was close is that we almost had the lion's money line It was plus 130 or plus 335 and we spoke on there on Wednesday Closed at plus 340 or plus 330 depending on where you grabbed it Though it got as long as plus 360 at times. So I didn't get the best number. I know that for sure That's frustrating, but the Lions played really well. They Benefited from awesome late down efficiency. They struggled to run the ball, but they were super efficient through the air I thought that they played well the defense played decent too. So I feel good about the process there couldn't quite get the results But felt pretty good about that one other money line I had was the Jags at plus 172 that shortened a decent amount Sunday morning Not really sure why it shortened then specifically, but it did shorten a front to about one 164 I believe I saw a 164 for the Jags. I did shorten eventually, but I Probably should have lost this one honestly, but forever Lawrence you balled out He was awesome And that was part of the the thought process by the plays at the Jags offense I thought was underrated, you know, they were playing well and early downs. They were Moving the sticks before third and fourth down Lawrence is playing. Well, I thought based on my numbers need play great there So they got the win, you know going for the win With the two-point conversion late was nice I wish I'd gotten there the Lions too, but hey, you know a plus 172 winner on the the Jags that felt good. So Felt good about that also mentioned on Monday show. I'd value on the Steelers at plus 122 I didn't wind up betting that but they won. So don't get credit for that one on the show But felt good about my numbers last week and felt good about The way they read that slate wish we had gotten the Lions, but overall good week overall Ryan Williams our guest on Wednesday had like 30,000 close calls this week like a billion He was smart enough to take the points of the Lions instead of the money line So good on Ryan there. He won that bet whereas I did not good for him That was nine and a half. They lost by three. So they did cover did not win but great teams Great teams cover. So good on Ryan for the call there and good on the Lions for covering for him He had a push on the Eagles at minus seven. He had Washington minus four They won that game by six Titans plus one and a half. They lost by four Patriots plus two and a half. They lost by a single score Rams plus 14 and a half. They lost by 16. He had the Dolphins minus 13 They pulled their starters early one by 15. So got a cover there He had the Ravens minus four, which was good until that Lawrence really impressed a drive late He also had the Buck Sprouts under 42 and a half that game finished with 40 despite overtime. So a Lot of a lot of close stuff for Ryan that we could have gone awesome could have been awful wound up being a five five once you did have the Steelers plus two and a half last night and they won that game outright So five five and one on spreads and totals for Ryan last week could have gone either way But uh, hopefully Ryan was not watching most this game's live because that'd be a sweat That'd be a sweaty week across the board for him as for Monday night the props stuff Bit wonky game outside of hitting the Steelers side Ryan did it George Pickens over 43 and a half receiving yards But touchdowns didn't break in our favor Ryan also wanted the under a 39 and a half finished with 41 So again another close one there So Monday night rougher other than the Steelers him on the spread of my money line there We'll try to regroup there next week next week Monday night believe is a Tampa Bay game So I'll have likely something on Tampa Bay on my end there, but we'll see as we progresses but hopefully Ryan is His heart is in check or heart is intact after what was likely a very stressful week from him with a lot of tight Swings back and forth throughout that one We're gonna talk more about NFL week number 13 with Ryan coming up on Thursday That'll be up on the fandal YouTube page and up on the covering the spread podcast feed in the afternoon So make sure you subscribe to both those spots to get our full breakdown a week number 13 We'll talk about chiefs bangles. We'll talk about probably more about the Dolphins 49ers We'll probably talk I would guess Eagles Titans as well So a lot of good games on tap this week full breakdown for that coming up on Thursday back with more ed tomorrow as well breaking down the college football conference championship games we'll talk about him talking about Michigan, Ohio State and Much more other good stuff to talk about Ed in the USA versus Iran matched there as well for now Do you got any questions for me? I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J I am SA NNES You can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Enjoy USA versus Iran if you listen to that before that game gets underway We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down that one and talk some college football This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network