 Welcome traders to another tick mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 4th of July, 4th of July being Independence day that means that the US markets will be closed for a public holiday Next week's focus really is going to be on the US labor market The strength of the US labor market really is going to be top of mind for traders To gauge inflationary pressures and growth with risks the jolts and ADP data Released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively followed by the all-important payrolls released on Friday Market expects 3.5% unemployment rate in June down from May's 3.6% reading. We have some week spending data last week and remarks by Fed chair Powell put hourly earnings in the participation rates in the spotlight as well as to gauge the path of monetary policy Data on consumer credit will also be released on Friday Let's take a look at other releases of notes on Tuesday We get May factory orders looking for a 0.5% print there up from last month 0.3% capital investments Moderately positive so far in the second quarter Then on Wednesday, you get services PMI looking for a 51.6 There versus the last print of 51.6 inflation is stripping some momentum out of services, but the sector Generally remains in robust health manufacturing a little bit weaker versus the last prince of 55.9 We look for a 54.3 this time around We also get on Wednesday at FOC June meeting minutes focus really is on discussions of the path of policy for 2022 On Thursday May trade balance looking for a negative 84.9 billion print there the deficits will remain Wide and then I've obviously on Friday. We get that more important non-farm payrolls data Media Nesca is for a 250k print jobs growth moderately but moderating but still healthy really keeping pressures on the unemployment rates and adding wages growth look for the 0.3% there prints on the average hourly earnings So we ran out the week in the US with May wholesale inventories find less than that 2% of prints restocking continuing at a robust Pays and then make consumer credit looking for a 30-print there aggressive monetary tightening is likely to really cool credit growth in the US Looking at the dollar index here from technical perspective Still tracking this ending diagonal looking for an ABCD e-pattern here. So whilst we hold above the pivot 103.90 in the ascending trend line support here We are looking for that test of the 106 40s 106 20 area. We have nearly our three there 106 42 and so what I'm going to be watching for there is momentum divergence to be maintained bearish momentum divergence Looking for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side initially Target will move back down to test the base of the wedge there at 101 35 at this stage It would take a loss of this ascending trend line to sports to suggest We already have a high in place and then again the target would be that one 133 area as the first downside objective Moving to the eurozone And in terms of data next week Monday, we get July Centex investor confidence Last time negative 15.8 looking for a deterioration here to a negative 20 print with growth outlook remains very weak in Eurozone then on Tuesday services PMI's 52.8 final estimate for the month and Then on Wednesday, we get made retail sales Negative 1.3 percent last time looking for a 0.6 percent positive print now But cost of living pressures are weighing on retail trades And that rounds out the data of notes for Eurozone next week so from a technical perspective Euro dollar continues to remain below this all-important trend line resistance here We did get a bit of profit-taking as we retested lows into the 103 60s on Friday But whilst we hold resistance here at this 105 50s We look for an extension down the first downside objective being 102 40 and then one 101 74 there on the weekly timeframe at this stage It would really take a close through this trend channel resistance above 106 20 to suggest that we can see a further corrective move up into test resistance at the 107 30s moving to the UK terms of data Tuesday services PMI's 53.4 expected final estimate for the month And that is really the only data of note that we have in the UK next week very light data power there so likely to take Price action likely to take its leave from the dollar index Sterling similar to the euro got some profit taking into the close on Friday Potential here is if we can get through the pivot at 122 40s Then we can see an extension up into the trend channel resistance and the quality objective 124 30s before once again looking for another leg to the downside to complete the sequence But whilst we remain under this 122 30 Monthly monthly pivot there then we are looking for an extension down the next downside objective is 118 15 From there we would look for another potential corrective move to get a retest of this Trend channel that we're currently trading in but for now the pressure is is to the downside And like I said need to get a close back through 122 50s 122 60s to take some of this pressure off In Japan data of note next week Tuesday Nikkei services PMI final estimate for the month of 54.2 And then on Friday we get May household spending Looking for a positive 2.1 cent print there pent up demand outweighs the purchasing power concerns for the Japanese economy And we also get the May current account balance looking for a hundred and sixty two billion yen there Import value lifts on that much weaker yen and higher energy costs. That's the only data of note in Japan next week So from a technical perspective, we're still tracking this ending diagonal pattern looking for the test of 137 60s from there So as we maintain momentum divergence here and watching bearish reversal patterns to gauge on the short side Initially targeting a move back down to 131 30s at this age will take a closing loss of this ascending trend line sports suggests We already have a high in place and again initial target 131 30s on the downside Branding out the week down under in Australia in terms of data of note on Monday Soon inflation gauge inflation well above the RDA's target bound looking for 4.8 cent print there We also get June A&Z job ads last time 0.4 cent job vacancies are plenty amid that tightened labor supply Which is a global thing at the moment Then heading into Tuesday we get the all-important RDA policy decision Mark it widely expects another 50 basis point move and a prompt return soon was the neutral rate So last time that increase of 50 base point put set the rates at 0.85% So we're looking for it to move up to 1.35% this week Then on Thursday get the main trade balance looking for 10.9 billion there Input forecasts plus 3% exports forecast plus 2.5% predominantly led by coal And that rounds out the week in terms of data down under in Australia From a technical perspective Aussie dollar broke through that support zone we're looking at the 6840s So now all eyes really are on a test of the equality objective versus the swing high from 7660s down into this 66 From there I'll be watching for momentum divergence and bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side Looking for move up into train channel resistance 6950s We're going to round out the week this week in the bonus chart here looking at Bitcoin We're tracking a potential five wave sequence we're looking for the test the equality objective at 12,185 In this broader ABC corrective pattern moving to the daily chart here Whilst we hold this support at 18,670 We look for a test of the equality objective 22,400 and just above there The train channel resistance 23,600 There is reversal patterns there to engage on the short side targeting that equality objective 12,185 At this stage any loss of the current support at the lows of 17,600 Which again we want to be in on the short side there targeting this equality objective And then when we get down there we're going to look to see if buyers step back in in a meaningful fashion Watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side from that 12,185 downside objective At this stage really take a loss of the 9,379 the weekly high volume load to suggest that we are heading meaningfully lower And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing July 4th As always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk Until next week, thanks very much