 Okay, hello folks. Just going to get up and running on a live feed So just going to give it a minute or two before I really kick off and start the full Non-farm parallel live coverage going to be on from 1 to 2 p.m. London time. So I'll do a full Fundamental preview or listen into the live release. We'll look at the charts and how things react in real-time And yeah, happy to take some questions as well So great to have everyone with us. I'm just getting some screen set up at the moment And just obviously people getting logged in and so on so So yeah, I'm just getting a few screens up now so I can monitor comments and obviously I'd love to get some questions from you guys We're going to be streaming this time across all the different amplifier social channels Interested to see how this experiment goes. I'm sure it'd be absolutely fine and hopefully It's something we can do more often and not just on market stuff, but all kinds of different things So yeah, I'm just going to set up. We'll give it a minute and then yeah, we'll get underway Just move a few screens around Yeah, I hope everyone's doing well. I hope you Friday Okay, cool. Well, look, let's let's get things underway Firstly, thanks very much for for clicking on the link. It's the first time we've really live-streamed on things like LinkedIn And I know we have a really great community on there. So if you're watching on LinkedIn, hello, I hope you're all doing well But also this is going to go out to the Facebook group As well as the YouTube community as well And yeah, you know, you probably see my face fairly regularly with the morning briefings So, you know massive. Thank you for everyone who does follow us online. Super appreciate it As I always say when I do meet people in person any of those daily Kind of macro briefings I put out that if you have questions, whatever they might be Complicated or simple as you like just go ahead and leave a comment I'll always try and get back to people throughout the day So, you know, my intention there really is to use it as not only getting you up to speed and what's going on But you know for traders for students, but also as you know a vehicle to learn as well. So, um, yeah I look forward to Seeing you guys online. But look the purpose of this Hour I'm going to be on for for now until two obviously I'm going to talk Mainly about non-farm payrolls So I'll get right into that in a moment and I'll give you a bit of a preview of what we're expecting today Was one of the the biggest probably jobs reports We've seen from a number point of view on the headline changing on farms since the onset of the pandemic which I'll talk about in a moment and then Yeah, talk a little bit about Amplify and the guys I've got a few different guys online helping me out here in the in the I was going to say in the background but in the virtual background and so if there's any questions at all If I can't see everything they're going to fire it over to me and I'll be able to pick those up as well. So Yeah, before we get into payrolls do check out and we've kind of soft launched the v2 of Amplify live so Amplify live is kind of our trader community where Again, those guys are online now. So hello to everyone, but we have lots of different things Which I can show you here just briefly because Amplify live.com Includes basically content Training as well as as our housing our trader can invest the community We cover live trading sessions. So things like this or like yesterday's Bank of England. I'd be doing that regularly over any big data releases any breaking news vaccine news or COVID things like that and I can flick on the mic and go live and in a private stream Then we have one of our senior traders Tim and he's there with a live stream going throughout the entire day So market updates here, you know, one of the great things that we wanted to do For you guys really that the community is online is that, you know, just jumping through all of this Which you can check out in your own time. What exactly the trader hub is but there's a free version we really wanted to Give something back for the just really loyal followers that we've had over the years And so now the way that we design this hub is there's kind of three tiers to it And one of those is absolutely free. So that briefing that you get from me on YouTube at around 10 a.m You can now get that early ahead of 8 a.m All you need to do is just go on to Anfile live.com sign up for free You can access a private discord community room. You can also get hold of calendars Technical charts things like that. And yeah, we just just get our online community really out there And then if you want added things and then obviously you can check other stuff out Other things just a quick bit of housekeeping before I get into payrolls And we've just put out the latest podcast. So if you're not aware of this market watch podcast You can go on apple podcast or Spotify. Just search for market watch. You'll probably see it see my face But me and Piers do every Friday morning. We put out a new episode and we've just done the latest one Which is about Basically a big talking point in the markets right now and we've been seeing this phenomenal rise in commodities across the board As we go through this reopening the kind of pent up and and big demand that we're going to see come through And the constraints as well that general manufacturing bottlenecks are having at the moment And what this is doing for inflation, you know inflation is moving higher. It will continue to do so Now is the fed or reserve right to really Hold true to the idea that inflation would be transitory or not. What's the challenges they're facing? What's the timings on the communication for tapering all these types of things Piers and I discuss at length in the the podcast today. So so yeah, check that out again Just search for market watch Or just go to amphilive.com slash podcast But look, let's have a quick wrap up what's been going on in markets So far today and what the charts are looking at or looking like and then We can we can go into and drill down into a preview for non farms and what we're expecting from today's release in 22 minutes or so so one of the things here then is Before we before we look at the the detail Let's look at the the lay of the land and at the moment the dollar seen A little bit of weakness after the slight bid talking about the Dixie When european players came in so we're just picking up off the lows at the moment in fact and the dollar Index is back to unchanged having traded a little bit weaker this morning So let's have a look at a couple of different charts then for one This is euro dollar Quite nice respect actually from the recent range, which is taking the fib Retracement from the recent high that we printed back at the end of last week last Thursday 29th to the low that we printed On wednesday We had a nice respect to the 50% fib in the yesterday afternoon session Also held and constricted the age pack session till europe came in this morning And then the 6182 With the r1 in the euro futures. I'm looking at with the 121 handle So real nice combination of of technical indicators. They're aligning To just go around that zone for the top there in the in the euro currency And it's just drifted south here as they said is the dollar seeing a bit of recovery going into the number You know, don't forget obviously the the dollar perhaps more favorable to upside just given the idea that this number Most are sitting on the on the side of a blowout to the upside. So the risk is for an upside surprise And that could well then be net dollar beneficial in that sense Um, so weighing on euro dollar a little bit But otherwise cable has been from a range point of view fairly restricted in recent sessions yesterday's bank of england I mean, you can see these really exaggerated wicks here on the initial volatility initially the pound actually dropped but um, what the Bank of england did yesterday I think was absolutely in line if you actually look where we're trading now just come out of the kind of microscopic lens of the the day trading environment and you look at it from a slightly higher time frame We are pretty range bound in the middle of that So despite the noise over the boe who who did kind of taper Not sure tapers really the right word for what they did It was more of a technical tweak to prolong then to year-end as per their guidance Um about the the volume of purchases to the amount committed so so far Um upgrades aggressively to things like growth The kind of unemployment peak being lower now from the previous forecast in february none of that's surprising so The move in itself. I think you had a Bit of a drop yesterday in the pound. It recovered quite quickly net net. I wouldn't really over interpret it So now it's really over to the dollar and the greenback will really drive proceedings now to see off the end of this week So from a cable point of view Where we're trading at the minute Probably don't really look For too much interest unless we get back down to where we were in yesterday's low Or we get back up to that range high and the r1 is sitting just above that About four pips above that area as well just marked up with the rectangle Otherwise quick look elsewhere from a technical perspective This is the nasdaq 100 future Fairly interesting setup here. We have had good respect this week after the breakdown in price that we saw On tuesday, you remember on tuesday, there were lots of people pulling around The kind of hypothesis of why was we were selling off? But I think ultimately we were We were selling off on a combination of different things, you know, whether it be technical Whether it be janet yelens comments where she kind of walked back But was commenting about perhaps the need for rate rises in the future The idea being here is just look technically this is quite a key level I think around this payroll is given how close proximity we are to it at the moment So any breach back up? Obviously you've got the r1 just above but Perhaps more interesting then is you start to draw in that double bottom respected during the middle of april You've also got that high here before the drop So you kind of broke you can see how the market technically played out on tuesday We broke down through that double bottom move down to that on the day the s2 Bounced back up to that level for then what we'd call the kind of classic short and the market just ran lower Some of that momentum picked up on that that kind of bearish developments on that day But as we become so accustomed to seeing we actually saw this again last night as far as the s&p is concerned The final half an hour or so a trade stocks just kind of blast back higher and reverse a lot of the move So upside. Yeah, that that would probably be a cure. I'd look at 13 6 97 any further progressive push higher than Just having a look up toward 13 7 22 Which starts to bring some of those relative lows and around that mid april period as well as The levels of support in the age of pack session going through this week monday tuesday before the breakdown in price on on the tuesday afternoon On the downside Yeah, there's definitely room here to move to the downside for sure technically speaking Probably be looking at that intraday like we printed this morning, which did coincide with that initial peak in price that we saw late european afternoon yesterday So just running over the charts now before then i'll drill into the fundamentals and what exactly we're we're to expect for pay rise Otherwise just having a look at the s&p So The s&p now has so i'm just going to turn my G mail off because otherwise you could probably hear those pings Okay, so just having a look at the s&p here. Yeah, really powerful breach of that area of resistance that was seen yesterday Evening that was also the retest of the prior day session high and just popped higher already there And really drove prices high into the closing bell asia took us another leg higher Um, we have formed a bit of a of a near term base at around 41 92 And and we traded excessive 4200 at the moment So this is obviously right up there, you know, if we're looking on the dailies Back to back to all-time highs having had the lights of the dow already put in that that marker this week So yeah, definitely as i'll talk about at the moment You know if pay rise comes out in a particular scenario, certainly we could we could be printing all-time highs once again Otherwise t-notes really quiet actually going into this event I don't think that's too untoward. Obviously market volumes tend to drop off just going into the volatility and At the moment, it's just a wait and see really for for this number to come out now Looking at the near term kind of price ranges Uh, it's kind of between 32 16 and 24 on the upside the upside level is quite interesting Because that's been quite restrictive of price Over the course of the last two weeks two and a half weeks or so so up at 24 Which is sitting just two ticks above the R1 on the daily pivots oil much more indirect in terms of commodity space reaction here So be more byproduct of how dollar reacts overall Rather than something more tangibly direct to to crude oil prices But crude oil just come under a bit of pressure obviously as we've been seeing as i've mentioned a bit of dollar Reversal of late just going into this figure the Dixie now has eradicated all of the morning is decline And we're just testing the s1 here, which was also as you can see The low here on the fourth it's going back to earlier part of the week on the downside I've been keeping an eye on the 64 handle so kind of down here as you can see That was the peak of resistance back at the beginning of the week and the recommencement of trade On sunday night going into monday and was also an area of support back on thursday's session As well on thursday morning Downside there then at 63 i think not too much then until we actually get get further down Probably looking down toward the 63 handle starts to draw in Some of the base of that price activity at the beginning of the the week, but again would want to Not look at oiled in terms of too Direct not unless there's good technical setups given the fact that the more kind of direct moves often best Kind of played out via yield subsequent bond prices dollar fluctuation And then equities and commodities probably secondary to that But let's just have a quick look at The non-farm payroll by detail then of exactly what are we looking at and let's start off with a couple of couple of talking points, so Let's jump straight onto here So just sharing the economic calendar here And I just wanted to go over a couple of 101s for anyone who's not that familiar with following payrolls Payrolls is a you know comes out first Friday in the month barring some exceptions when there's a u.k Or the u.s bank holiday It's always seen as a a major Kind of reading in terms of the overall health of the u.s economy and even more so in the current environment because of the fact that The u.s federal reserve have been pretty adamant that jobs is a real focus in terms of their policy decision making And we know that from a from the political side coming from the u.s administration as well So the jobs report here is actually Quite a multifaceted report. There's there's a lot of pieces to it but there certainly is generally a hierarchy of In a day training environment what subsequently causes short-term volatility and the headline reading Is the kind of first input? So it's almost the first output in terms of the initial often algo led kind of reaction effect Which can often be fairly binary And the reason why is because those computerized systems are largely based upon the parameters that are the the range And what I mean by this is payrolls today headline is expected at 978 000 jobs created With a range of six five six to two point one million And so that range then you can determine what would be really an outlying Surprise either in a negative or a positive sense And more broadly speaking Just talking from a technical reaction point of view To further you are the bigger the deviation away from the median consensus Normally the bigger knee-jerk reaction you're going to see As I said though payrolls has a few more layers to it which generally adds to volatility and often for a human Point click trader. It's often better to just kind of Stay steer clear of the initial Noise i.e. seconds Could be minutes depending on how mixed the data is and then You know, don't try to be too clever about it, you know, unless there is something really ultra clear And uniformity to all the numbers pointing in a particularly positive or negative fashion Well, then just stay out of it and wait for for better potential opportunities later And I've said many times to to our junior traders that You know, the best opportunities can often come 15 20 half an hour an hour at the open on wall street You don't need to hit it or feel compelled to hit it at the point of release The other kind of key numbers here then are the unemployment rate That's expected at 5.8% That will be down an improvement on six again fairly wide range of 5.2 to 6.1 Don't forget with the headline reading to be aware of the revision to the previous 916 You know is the revision up and you get an actual beat on the month Obviously that just adds to the positivity of it Or does it net off effect kind of neutralize a headline beat on the actual month of april that this report is So a few things there to think about you've then also got the two month net revision You get a breakdown of manufacturing government payrolls, which adds some granularity to the report But isn't too important. I'd say an initial reaction Much more the headline the unemployment the revision the two month net revision And and the average hourly earnings is something historically people will look at But I think at the moment the focus is on the overall job number for the time being on the unemployment rate and more so um a few things then that we have had what what market participants tend to do is there's a very formal aic process as to What happens prior to non-farms coming out and essentially non-farms is not the only jobs data It's arguably seen as the most important one It definitely encapsulates the overall national picture But there are a number of little jigsaw pieces that we get given in the run up to non-farm payrolls so These in themselves carry somewhat of a hierarchy of importance One of the ones you would have seen yesterday of course was was jobless claims Initial jobless claims so i.e A lower number is is a better perceived perception of the employment situation And as you can see on this chart of the last 12 readings going out to the beginning of february We've been on a downward trajectory, which is positive vaccination is going up in the u.s um You've got on a state by state level different Reopening is happening so people going back to work and so the jobless claims figure is decreasing So these would all be positive Developments for the belief then that people go back to work that demand will pick up in the economy is going to increase In terms of its output and hence like what we saw with the recent gdp reading last week important points to remember kind of nuances with payrolls is that They take what we call a reference period So typically the 12th to the 12th of the month So it's not like it's the first to the end of april as an april report It will be the 12th of march to the 12th of april So when you're looking back on these data points It's not going to necessarily capture things like 498 But certainly it captures the decrease that we were seeing from the drops to 750 down to the the high 500s Um, that's not the only thing though. Probably the one that people Again historically put quite a lot of kind of weight behind is the adp employment report Now now this one is private payrolls Very big kind of data collection exercise So it's given that that kind of weighted factor as a good precursor for payrolls Came out early in the week on it always comes out on wednesday It did rise And in fact, it was the the biggest figure in the last eight releases Albeit it was a touch below expectations. So it came in 742,000 against expectations of 800,000 Nonetheless quite a significant jump So overall, I mean, I know that number is lower than consensus, but generally speaking, you know The deviation away from a consensus estimate. That's not that big a surprise. So typically quite neutral. I'd say with that release The other things then are the ism readings. So these are your PMIs So we've had this week the manufacturing on the monday Just had the services PMI come out in the us a little bit of a mixed picture and probably on the manufacturing side That was the only one that was a little bit weaker And we are seeing kind of a degree of kind of bottlenecks at the moment as These facilities try to reopen quick enough to keep pace with this massive pick up in demand and consequently that was creating These massive price pressures, which undoubtedly is going to see inflation move higher in the future But as such then what the employment sub index for manufacturing actually Retraced from what was a three-year high. However, it's still above the very important level of 50 and 50 for the ism Number and its constituents is deemed to be then above Expansion below contraction and that figure was still at 55 55.1 The services number was really strong came in at 58.8 It's the highest level it's been since september of 2018 other numbers Challenge of job cuts continued to diminish University of michigan and the conference board. So this is more looking at a consumer confidence level Those figures as well showed signs of optimism. We've got a post pandemic high in university michigan sentiment And the conference board index figure as well is pretty strong So that's all fine. All of this is basically telling you then that This market is expecting a decent report Um, the the question then becomes well, how's the market going to react? And what does this mean for the fed? So let's just address that for a few minutes and then the release will come out so a couple things for one D The Fed are very jobs focused if we get a number at a million Broadly in line with expectations I think put it into the context of the fact that that still would leave Employment about 7.5 million jobs short of its peak of where we were going back to february Of 2020 so prior to the pandemic really kicking off. So when you think about the slack in the economy and you think about the The catch up that we need to make There's a lot there and that goes some way to explain then why The fed fielders although there's inflationary pressures emerging There's still a lot of slack in the economy In addition to the fact that don't forget that You know consumers and so on have been kind of jacked up on multi-stimulus checks And all these different types of things which has been keeping demand up And so once that fades out well then You know where does inflation stand then and when all of these other kind of operational aspects start to reopen That kind of decreases then at the factory those price pressures And then that kind of fades down to the to the consumer um In terms of the breakdown of the actual jobs you're probably going to see in this payroll report And i'll show it to you on the breakdown when it's out uh quite a General improvement across sectors, but leisure and hospitality industries are probably going to see the most aggressive Moves backs of which we would anticipate because things like restaurants bars amusement parks things like that are reopening From states to state in the u.s. As vaccinations continue to to increase Government employment is also expected to pick up as many school districts are going back to kind of face to face Rather than virtual classroom activity And then strong housing demand will likely have boosted construction Payrolls as well like as what we've been seeing with the squeeze on lumber prices and things like that and kind of unprecedented Um demand for new new homes in america um, so yeah a couple things there from a fed's point of view The fed have said they want to see a string of um A string of jobs reports Being strong before they'll begin the decision about tapering and that's key So if you get a million figure if you get a million point two if you get a million point five I don't think that's going to change the fed's mind I think and you know, this is the next point we'll talk about quickly as a good comment from Stephen englander who's the fx global strategist at standard charts and i absolutely agree with him He was saying you need a number north of two million today to really make the fed then Make make a kind of take back and consider are we on the right path here? Is this actually more aggressive recovery than what we're anticipating? And therefore do we need to have earlier conversations or not? But as per their own language, they need to see a string of strong job reports and not one off thing Let's remember policy makers are trying to make decisions over the medium-term horizon They can't be reactive and start being hawkish then dovish then hawkish they lose credibility So they've got to be patient with that So overall then I think just if we get a headline beating number in a fairly robust report I wouldn't necessarily take that then as a hawkish type reaction I think what you need to see is really spectacular numbers like an unemployment rate Low fives with a headline at 2.5 million Yeah, then you're going to see the dollar really explode yields move higher stocks will probably get hit Anything short of that though. I think actually you might get that kind of Goldilocks scenario And equities might take it good data good move. We bust the fresh highs again And the old perhaps don't really move too much the dollar bit of strength that might provide opportunities for those FX pairs All right. Well, let me get the Let me get the squawk on so I use the squawk company new squawk They're going to read out the headlines Okay, 30 seconds. Hopefully you can hear that fine Again, I'm going to come off the mic. We'll listen into the release. You've got the charts up in front of you now I'll reiterate anything important And the earnings Just jumping in there guys that headline is a massive miss Huge miss t-notes popping to the upside smashing through that resistance level Gold session highs as well and the dollar getting whacked on the back of that So big spring back up in euro dollar and cable on the back of the initial release Again, I'm just waiting for the squawk to come back on but unemployment rate is also a disappointment 6.1 Above the expected 5.8. Remember on the balance people were looking for a good report here The information we've had has been positive mark as a position for positivity. This figure has come out It's a shocker on those two levels 266,000 that breaches clearly the bottom end of the most pessimistic estimate on the street The unemployment rate also at 6.1 was within range, but it's on the wrong side of market expectations I would say nasdaq is going to like this And the nasdaq why that's important is because the nasdaq's been beaten down this week on this rotation Into growth out of growth into value This puts to bet the idea that that's an appropriate thing at this point in time because this jobs data is a disappointment So yields dropping t-notes just exploding higher the equity move here As you can see it's more pronounced in the nasdaq because it's the nasdaq that's been feeling the pain this week And it's like to see some of that upside. So here just gone through some of those key levels that we were looking at in the nasdaq Just going to highlight here with my marker. You've got those previous areas here to keep an arm We're just testing that now at 137.22 bust is straight through there next target stop now We're going to be at 13774, which would be just above the r2. So nasdaq just really loving that report And again, it sounds weird. It's a bad report But again, it puts to bed any of this idea that we're moving towards the kind of successful reopening And it's going to then tantamount to more policy tightening this kind of we're not there yet So as far as the Fed are concerned You know, they're doing exactly the right thing with their strategy. So s and p a little bit bit But less of forcefully so than the nasdaq but as as you would anticipate Currently pairs still rallying euro cable session highs gold also just loving it at the moment. So Just going to jump over here on a 240 on my gold futures chart You know, we've really broken through what was that key area here at around 1829 Next kind of stock from a technical perspective. I'd be eyeing that range low here Which is where we're just finding a bit of an obstacle at the moment in the futures market And so just to highlight here and here A key areas and we're just having a test of that now. So good $21 gain now in the session for gold futures And euro just really busting on the upside now. So let's just have a look at the euro chart Euro has taken back pretty much the entirety of the week selling now Um, just coming out to a couple of strategic points here in the euros when you move higher Um, and yeah, what you might see is you can see here quite aggressive Movement in the wicks because this will be a lot of that fast money Just trying to hit it and they will be looking for the first Exit opportunity that they get and you can see that here from these two areas So on that break up through That r2 is a pretty good level from a technical perspective As you can see here on the horizontal it lines up to some of those key areas And that's why you're getting quite an aggressive pullback You just would have seen on the order flow people coming out clip by clip all the way up And even though this is a positive directional move and the euro should Remain supported here. The point being is is that you're just getting those fast money players just exiting that trade So you might get some Come in to reload here the r1 or the r2. Excuse me. Let's see how it performs here If it holds up and has another retest on the upside Cable. Yeah, it's been cable's been really dull this week despite the bank of england But obviously this has just helped it break out from that that range that's been restricting price And again, just running up towards some of these levels that were the peak of the price at the end of april probably lesser Interesting though compared to to that euro move for the time being So yeah, that's just selling a little bit. This is what I mean about oil just going into the release really I mean oil's hardly blinked But again, that's why you know knowing what product to focus on and tackle is really quite key um, you're talking about much more domino effect move for oil really to To see a substantial movement on the back of that if anything for oil It's kind of a double whammy that neutralizes the impact because if you think about it from a demand point of view Perhaps we're not quite far as we thought we were in the economic kind of picture of jobs It's not Anywhere near where we thought it was going to be but at the same time if that keeps the Fed honest that they're Going to keep a common sense of policy for longer You know that's kind of nets it out and and hence we haven't really seen too much movement there I'd say would be my initial take Yeah, so things started to just die down a little bit here. Let me see if I can get the squawk back on See if they've got any further analysis to add But yeah, you can see t-notes backing off And that's not uncommon. You get that initial Explosive activity and then it starts to die down a bit Now is where you might potentially get a pull back to a nice strategic point Because of the fact that this is quite an outlying poor report. You might then get that ability to just carry the Carry the move onward now for the rest of the session So yeah, actually turning out to be quite quite an interesting one. I certainly wasn't expecting I think as per the market reaction something that weak That's definitely not what the market was lining itself up for And and from the information from the other employment data points that we've had this week So definitely a surprise there Just having a quick skim of the comments Hi guys, yeah, I can see a few of you there. Yeah, good to see you Owen Ali Naran Samurai Yenny Okay, so have you with us Ed Sorry Ed. I've got I think I need another two computer screens to be able to like monitor everything But Ed always a pleasure to have you online with us on youtube Hope you in the family all well Yeah, I mean I can address Ed's question now actually do I expect a negative surprise to have a Goldilocks effect after the knee jerk? And if so, how negative do you think it needs to be for a sustained move? Yes, good question I definitely like the NASDAQ in this scenario Because the NASDAQ has been quite sensitive. I think over recent sessions to Just generally this this this rotation that's been pinned on the theory of the reopening And and and this I don't think that this report really Slows the reopening to a certain respect because the reopening as we know is really more down to vaccination rates More than anything and covid rates and in the u.s Those vaccination rates have been decreasing but as we go through this month into june We'll expect them to pick up again And further reopening would be tantamount to at some point this jobs market will start to fire up again Um, so yeah, it is weak. I think the NASDAQ Perhaps I'd you know, I'd want to see the NASDAQ really at this point if it comes back down toward 13 696 this kind of area here. So we just remove some of these and make this bit more clear if it comes down to Kind of here I think could be quite interesting for then the entry point for the long for the rest of the session Equally, so if it comes back up and we get a bit of a test And on this level here and we see this type of price action So break above pullback and then for the move onward I think that could be quite interesting as well as a potential play for the rest of the day But the NASDAQ I kind of like it because of the fact of its positioning at the moment the s&p less or so Um, I think this number could be supportive for the s&p But the s&p hasn't been as weighted by a lot of the factors for this week So I prefer the NASDAQ you can see the NASDAQ now just having another look on another push here Otherwise in the currency market Some of the dollar just easing off a little bit Again, I'd want to see Yeah, perhaps if we get the pullback might have already materialized just what I was talking on another screen Yeah, there are two in the futures on the euro with around those highs From back on the 30s might be interesting then to to come back in but Yeah, I mean we're at the top end of that range now, so Not sure how comfortable I'd feel about entering there to be honest or considering that as a as a long continuation opportunity The payoff there is relatively limited on the upside now back to that high Outside of the intraday, I think the market likes this in terms of The equity market overall. I think it just allows the the Fed to maintain their credibility And to put to bed any idea that might have been building up, particularly with the Yellen Comment early in the week of higher rates and things like that. The Fed are job centric at the moment Inflation is a big consideration It's a key factor, but they're job focused And you know just going off what power was saying earlier in the week Power's quite focused as per its comments this week on The idea that they want to get the lower Social economic demographic employed again Those people are going to be going to be more difficult to get employed or take longer You know throwing the mix now this these types of numbers it just solidifies that the Fed are doing the right thing And this is why in conversations that Piers and I have with the guys often the community Just through experience of the financial crisis in particular I just think the Fed will always land on the side of caution always um So I always think it's wrong to write them off and that they're they're wrong or You know this whole transitory argument and things like that and I think today is evident of that Yeah, gold back to session highs It's just have another look in nasdaq. It's just moving higher again as well So as I said, I think the nasdaq's the one that's got a bit more room for maneuver on the week's positioning on the the gold chart Yeah, I mean the gold technically looks like it's got a bit of a blue skies here until we get up to 1850 1851 to be quite honest, so God, yeah the opportunity to get in though a bit difficult on the exercising of the on the execution side Let's get it down to five minute Yeah, so we got around this 36 I was going to say is if you put it down the tighter time frame like five minutes or less You can see that 36 37 area. There's a bit of hesitation in gold before now seeing a bit of further upside That's probably the only opportunity there after the explosive pop to to really control an entry more appropriate And that would be based on the belief then that you'll get a further continuation here through to the The previous high scene in early feb You can see here. This is on the this is on daily for gold I know it's a bit messy is quite a lot of lines here, but the one I guess I'll draw your attention to Would be here And I'll just color that now. It's just to make it easier to see So this kind of zone up here at 45 We're trading at 38 at the moment So you've got those previous highs here seeing the february and that good area support seen back in late september I'd like that as a target there if you're in those longs now from 37 As to hold on the intraday question Don't worry Is never a dumb question absolute rule 101 But how can they be so far out of the estimates? Yeah, it's probably just let me turn the score So, yeah, it's a good question, you know, why are analysts so bad at their job? And I guess I can say that because I can you can probably throw me in that camp of people fulfilling those duties and the thing I'd say there is that don't forget that we are in a We're in a win an unprecedented situation where unlike the global financial crisis The market is seeing these massive fluctuations in activity And like we've never seen before Like when we go back to GDP a few courses ago You know, we're seeing a 30% contraction bounce back of 30% It makes life just very difficult to build an accurate model of your inputs When each individual component of that model is seeing such wide fluctuation So hence the reason why in recent economic data even today you get such a wide variance of expectations I would definitely Put less credence on the consensus the median estimate and I'd focus more on the range of estimates You know today we were looking at what 650 to 2.1 million or so And I'll be using that as my reference point anything that lands in between there is pretty much in line To some respect and obviously this one was way off the mark on the downside Um, so as Uh data points start to normalize let's say in volatility terms Away from the on in terms of a deviation perspective as you go through probably then Toward the end of the year into next year, you'll see those Estimates probably ranges get more more defined and probably to a degree more accurate But they're never really that accurate of payrolls to be honest Just because your Goldman Sachs does not mean that your model can accurately forecast um On fun payrolls, so don't forget If you're trading day trading, it's not so much about trying to accurately Kiss that number so much as Really putting the pieces together of what's the market expectation? How have we positioned? What's the best? technical setup of a product across asset class to trade And then executing on the back of that mindset rather than you know trying to be clever and And pick the number which is you know doesn't really helped a great deal Uh in a report that's pretty multifaceted as I said like payrolls Yeah, but even so peers are saying but even so the the bank analysts, uh, I'm just trying to cut them a break peers Yeah, maybe you as the trader you're a little bit more harsh than me Yeah, the peers makes a good point You know, there's all well and good People well vaccinations are being administered in the u.s. Those numbers continue to increase Earlier this week. Joe Biden said the administration's target is to have At least one shot given to every u.s. Citizen 70 of the population by the 4th of july Now that's all well and good But I don't think we should be fooled into clearly thinking in a binary fashion that 70% inoculated means let's say 70% of the workforce gets filled. Let's say just just talking in relative terms And the reason for that is like peers says I think people are a little bit Um hesitant on a couple of different levels Some don't want the vaccine Don't want it. Uh, we've seen that we're delights of european faith in astrazeneca because the Tip for tat that europe was saying about the quality and the blood clots of the astrazeneca drug You've then got Certain pockets of lower social income The kind of economic structure and also ethnicity where again, they don't they don't want the vaccine You got a lot of people who are a bit apprehensive going back to work Particularly types of work where you're exposed to a lot of people So these could be manufacturing facility plants that could be Leisure and hospitality when you're interacting with people You know, I don't think we should be so blind is just saying like right people get vaccinated and they all feel like invincible We all go back to work. It's probably not so binary As that I would say All right. Well, we've got we've got another 12 minutes before I come offline. So Yeah, hit me up with some questions. Happy to help if I can Don't forget another quick shout out shame's plug for the podcast as peers is on and peers is my My partner in crime when it comes to the weekly podcast So I'm going to drop this Or the guys can drop the link into the chat. I'm sure Across the different platforms But we did a really good conversation that was talking about some of the things I've just been discussing here You know will inflation be transitory? How the Fed are going to react? Certainly this number is a good extension of that conversation that we were having this morning for sure Also as well, just if anyone's just joining the call um, yeah, if you if you like the podcast You know, feel free to follow it. So you get the alert every week if you're on apple Would massively appreciate it if you could Leave a star rating and a review really help Get the podcast out to more people Also, if you just check out amplify live dot com We've soft launched. 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So don't trust them You know, if you if you're unsure then put it this way Uh, I have no interest in bitcoin or crypto at all And I will never ask you for money. So But those two things being said if anyone's trying to pose as me on instagram, you know, it's not me Um Otherwise, yeah, linked in feel free to um to follow me on or connect with me on linked in happy to help if I can if you're a student You need some advice And we've got the amplify trading youtube channel as well If you subscribe to that there's lots of other content that we put out But there's one really great video. Um, I just put out today, which was Um, some of you've been in the market a long time might recognize But louisa boyerson who was the former anchor of cnbc Uh, I had a chat with her interview last week and she gave some amazing advice Kind of not not just practical tips for a really great motivational speech almost For any young students or graduates looking to break into finance. So I've just put that out a few hours ago and I'm sure you'd find that beneficial Um, but yeah, otherwise last couple minutes and then I'll close up this live feed So any other questions? Let me know It's just a question about All-time highs here across the board for indices Recession corrected via qe. Is there a real deeper recession inbound? Or are we safe to assume we're in recovery ball markets for another few years? I definitely think that the economy is going to improve going forward over the coming quarters for sure and at a rapid rate um The end of the year, I think things start to get perhaps a little bit more interesting To see the lay of the land once we Get over the reopening the stimulus kind of decreases on the fiscal side you know, we're in the midst of The kind of latest biden infrastructure package at the moment But once once those taps have turned off and the Fed are communicating toward then tapering You know, these will all be things that will see that slow down um But in a sense the economy will still be growing. So we've kind of had the downturn If you like the the recession For now was last year and it was fleeting and rapid pace but highly impactful And so now I think is the For now, I think we We recover but greater questions perhaps come in two sections of the rest of this year one The timing and successful Stepping away of the competitive policy from the Fed said you're probably looking at summer So June meeting for the Fed is very important as is august when we get the jackson hole semi-annual testimony That's fair intonations on that timeline And then towards the end of the year once all the Stimulative forces start to fizzle out You know, then then what happens next but as far as the street is concerned if you're looking at the s&p Most banks on balance still see more upside Here overall Yeah, I mean as will saying You know, he's not He's not wrong. I agree, you know if The point being here is what what would make stocks weaker Would be a strong number and this is what we were kind of talking about in the in the preview It would you know, you need to have not only do you need to have a two plus million print this time But as the Fed have said before they need to see a quote string of strong numbers and a string is Up for debate on what is what classifies a string, but let's say multiple so three um, and so The markets will always have a knee-jerk reaction But again think about think of it in real job context given today's number was so poor We're still eight and a half million jobs away in the u.s. From getting back to where we were on the initial onset the pandemic. So That's why I'm quite strongly of the belief that any notion of the Fed You know kind of easing off the kind of stimulative I think is misplaced for now and certainly that's Ratified by the number that we've had today and and really underpins the rationale of why I think equities Can remain if not At these levels move higher Um for the time being Yeah, so that's yeah, so great questions. So yeah, it really is about the Fed. I mean if you think about Generally the mechanics of what drives the market. I mean, obviously There's lots of micro little stories going on like peloton The other day and the treadmill recall Switching decision that they made in the shares dropped 15% You know, there's individual isolated stock stories happening all of the time when you think about the overall global asset class direction. So global yields currency Movement overall equity indices the price of commodities Yeah, the base of this is determined largely by the federal Federal reserve and decision-making that they make in combination in this area even more importantly as ever than in combination with fiscal policy given the the kind of Lengths and the reaction or effect that they needed to go to and how far they had to go to combat the severity of the initial lockdown impact So yeah to answer that question, they really are Super important if you're going to understand things from a from a top level top-down macro perspective Mr. Big It seems that low unemployment lots of free money is recipe for massive inflation Check out the podcast Yeah, so so just go to um On your apple podcast or Spotify search market watch Piz and I talk about exactly Your question and you can get our take on that All right guys just coming up to two o'clock. So I'm going to wrap up the live feed Um, thank you very much. I hope that was um I hope that was useful. I hope it was interesting Great to be back on um back online. Hopefully we can do a few more of these kind of live sessions Not just over the big fixed events. I'd love to do like a q&a Don't necessarily need to talk about markets can talk about careers can talk about whatever really So yeah, if you're watching this on one of the social channels, don't forget to like comment follow All of that other great stuff and uh as ever massively appreciate it. Um, hope everyone is Is is well stay safe And enjoy the weekend All right guys Take care