 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a great start to their weekend. Hope everybody is safe, healthy. That's the most important part of anything we start out with. Everything else obviously in life is a sugar on top. This is deemed, and this is something that I've really picked up on in the middle of the week. Maybe I'm lost, maybe I'm completely in the dark. I trade beta. My world is basically 10 stocks, 10, 12 stocks. So I really don't understand and I really don't follow what's going on outside of my world. So I don't understand the whole low float market. It's just not for me, right? It's not for me. I don't follow it. I've no interest one way or another. If you're making money in these stocks, God bless. If you're trading these airlines and if you're trading the cruise ships on this big, big squeeze, God bless. So I have nothing really to say bad or good, just, you know, to each his own. What I found is funny and this name kept on coming up all week in the last two weeks and I finally kind of woke up to it. They're calling this now the Robin Hood bubble. And I didn't understand it. I just didn't get it. And at first, you know, I understand what the Robin Hood thing is. It's for early stages of investments for brand new traders. Usually you would have, you know, $1,000, a couple of grand in their account. So I get it. Okay, cool. But I didn't understand two things. Number one, people making fun of the Robin Hood trader is basically saying that, well, they're chasing everything inside. If you watched my video from Thursday, I said basically, well, what was the difference of my guys, myself, all my friends, everybody who started out in 99 and 2000. What was any different, right? We chased everything inside. We got very, very lucky. Nobody knew what the hell we were doing. And eventually the dot com bubble crashed and we learned the hard way, right? A couple of years without making any money and thoughts of suicide and everything in between. Again, it wasn't a great moment in my life, probably one of the darkest moments in my life. And I wouldn't wish that if anybody. So I didn't understand why the Robin Hood traders were getting such a bad rap. Again, it's just kind of human nature. They will chase because their lack of process, their lack of emotional containment and the fear of missing out. Of course, they're going to chase everything inside. Again, nothing different than what we did in 99 and 2000. The one thing that I didn't understand was the media deeming this the Robin Hood bubble. From what I understand again, the stock market is really, really aggressive when it comes to institutional money flow. I'm not talking about now some guy with 5,000 people taking a low float stock with an 800,000 share float and spiking it up. I'm talking about stocks like, for example, like Carnival, like Delta, right? That trades 68 million, 65 million shares a day. Since from what I'm understanding is if a Robin Hood account is $1,000, $2,000, $800, $1,500, explain to me like I'm a three year old how a person that could buy 100 shares of a stock, 50 shares of a stock, 40 shares of stock and control anything with 68 million shares floating around trading on the day. I get there's a lot of them, but keep this in mind. Institutional order flow, when you have a stock trading 60, 50, 100 million shares, retail, I give you my word and especially retail with absolutely no buying power, I give you my word will not move the stock. The moves in the airlines, the moves in the airlines, the cruise ships, anything leisure, casinos. This was the ramification of what happened. We started talking about two months ago of the market getting a mulligan. So basically any bad news that come out, earnings, temporary closures, bankruptcy, restructuring was all getting a pass. And we talked about this a month ago and all these stocks were starting to start going higher. And unfortunately, it's not the Robin Hood people that are squeezing the stock. Unfortunately, I've been saying this for many, many years. It's much easier. If you're in the hedge fund world, it's much easier to raise money than to manage it. And unfortunately, a lot of traders, and we used to talk about this when we were at Carl and generic back in 99 and 2000, we always looked at the really smart people, the people who overthought it, the people who put logic ahead of reality. Those are the ones that usually got blown out. And what's happening is it's not that some guy and his friend and his friend friend friend on the Robin Hood is squeezing these stocks. What's happening is these fund managers that again were much easier to raise the money to manage it. They said, and they said this logically, while nobody's flying, nobody's going on cruise ships, nobody's going to restaurants, nobody's going to casinos, we're going to keep on shorting them and shorting them and shorting them and shorting them. And then the fuse and then the fuel hit and the match got lit in the fire and bad news started getting engulfing. Again, all these companies started getting either credit lines, extended reorgs with their creditors, whatever the case may be, earnings were completely pushed aside and slowly but surely the guys that were getting short at very, very disadvantaged levels, because again, they thought the coronavirus is completely, completely going to take these things to zero. What happened was guys on the other side of their trades, guys that equally could raise money, could equally manage money better, they started squeezing their stocks, they started squeezing the uneducated fund manager out of the way. And slowly but surely when retail started seeing an airline go from 17 to 18 to 18 to 20 to 20 to 24, then they started chiming it, right? They started chiming with their 100 shares, 50 shares, 60 shares, 120 shares, and slowly but surely when the uneducated fund manager started shorting more on the way up, surely the stock can't go from 17 to 25, it's only a debt cat bounce, let me short more. So for every fund manager that was shorting more on the way up, there was another fund manager and prop traders and index guys saying to themselves, well, you know what? We're going to buy a million shares of Delta because we do believe in five years it will recover. And slowly but surely this started a really massive short squeeze. Now again, that this short squeeze, again, it's a little bit exaggerated, can you turn around and say, wow, Delta had an amazing move of $17 to 36, basically doubling in a month and a half, is that out of the ordinary? Absolutely. But do you really think, again, George Trader 932 had anything to do with the Dallas squeeze? I mean, if you really think about it, if you really think about what I said and what I'm saying, it makes complete sense. Again, think about stocks like Tesla, think about stocks like Boeing when they had their big squeeze this week. Are you telling me, are you really expecting me to believe? And I've been doing this for nearly 21 years now. Are you expecting me to believe that somebody with a $1,000 account is the primary reason? Again, take their friends, take a thousand of their friends, take 10,000 of their friends. Are you telling me that 10,000 Robinhood accounts can squeeze Boeing? You telling me 10,000 Robinhood accounts can squeeze Tesla? It's a far truth. Look, things on Wall Street get really, really exaggerated very quickly. The new stores is usually unreliable and then unfortunately on educated traders, they run with it. Again, perfect example. The market makers control the action. Guys, the market makers haven't controlled anything since 2001. Right now, the market makers, they don't trade for their own book and they only handle order flow for retail. That's all they do. 99% of all market makers, all they do is take care of small retail accounts. I had friends who ran desks. One of my buddies ran one of the most profitable trading desks for market makers ever in fleet. Absolutely one of them. Herzog, one of the biggest market makers ever, got bought out for Merrill Lynch. The absolute worst investment of Merrill Lynch paid $900 million for Herzog, Heine, and Geduld. And again, that business went through a hell in a hand basket because again, they became completely obsolete. So the idea that myths control the market is absolutely ridiculous. Algorithms are your friend. I've been saying this for years. If you're on the right side of the pivot, and again that's what I do, I trade channels. If you're on the right side of the pivot and you can identify an arbitrage where you believe that algorithmic institutional money flows are going to go, the algorithm is your friend. If you're on the other side of that pivot, and again, we'll talk about the individual pivots in a second, that could be a problem. So Wall Street has an incredible history. That's the best way of saying it. They have an incredible history of taking nonfactual information and exaggerating it and running with it. Again, as much as it's cute and it's funny and it's a conversational piece, I give you my word. George from Spokane, Washington with his 36 shares of DAL is not squeezing anything. I give you my word. It's still institutional order flow. The problem is the guys who started putting incredibly aggressive money at the bottom of the range that shouldn't be running money, they're the ones that getting squeezed. The guys who are adding 10% into their bad execution are adding more and slowly but surely that creates a very, very aggressive squeeze. And again, there's no disrespect. Everybody started exactly the same. I was basically one of those Robin Hood traders without actually having a Robin Hood account in 99 and 2000. So the rest of my friends chasing everything in sight. But again, them participating in being the predominant reason why there is a short squeeze in a stock, probably a little bit exaggerated. So again, just one of the things that Wall Street is famous for of really running with nonfactual information. So let's talk about the tape. Again, one of the more aggressive weeks I can remember. Phenomenal week, really, really phenomenal week. Incredible bullish action, money flow coming back into beta Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Phenomenal moves. Tesla, Amazon, Boeing, Facebook, Zoom. Zoom was a monster this week. Really, really big trader this week. NVIDIA, Apple, beta was in full bloom. And the most important part of what we saw this week was that I felt that the market was really starting to get ahead of itself. And this is the first time around that we started seeing, you know, people who don't even trade for a living really flocking to the market. Again, not the Robin Hood crowd. The more we're kind of late to the party. Let's see if there's any hors d'oeuvres left part of the crowd. So when you're buying your first trade on Tesla is a thousand. While the stock has literally tripled in the last 12 to 15 months, you're kind of doing it wrong. That's the FOMO. It's not the Robin Hood crowd. That is the FOMO. That's the uneducated way to kind of put yourself out of the business and become a statistic. But what we saw this week was big, big prices, the attempt of the market really getting a little bit tired. And all of a sudden, like we said in the Thursday video, which one of the more aggressive days I can remember, and then we went to Friday. We'll talk about that in a second, was a sheer fact of two things. Gravity and people getting too comfortable. And almost the kind of disbelief that the market will never go down again. Because again, people, when they get comfortable, they get very complacent. And when they start believing and start sipping their own Kool-Aid, the blinders go on. Their defense mechanism goes off. And then it's YOLO, right? You only live once. And again, when you look at what happened towards the end of the week, you really understand why, again, most traders become statistics. Not because they are bad traders or bad people or they were bad in a previous life. They're just, again, they're not built to really participate in a market that trillions of dollars are exchanged every single day. And again, if you're not properly educated, you will eventually be a statistic. And that's kind of what all Wall Street is. It's a rinse and repeat type of society. The more traders come in, the more uneducated traders come in, the more traders that are shoot first, ask questions later, they become roadkill. And at the end of the day, the market kind of resets and does it all over again with its next generation of traders. So if you look at what happened this week in the market, two things really stand out. Thursday's session was a big red flag and not because the Dow went down 1800 points. What stood out of my mind about that sell-off was there was no fight back that day. There was absolutely zero fight in the bulls. They just literally walked down the market to the 20-day moving average of this rising support on the Q's. And what I didn't like about that was that anything to do with buy the dip and buy the dip again only works in a bullish scenario. But what I didn't like, what I saw about that buy the dip crowd, the dip was never bought. It was literally never bought and we closed at the lows of the day. So it really set up a really premium day for Friday's session. The only good part what I didn't see on Thursday's session on that really big exaggerated sell-off was there was no really heavy put buying in the tech space. That's a one positive that we saw and the second positive that we saw, again, speaking from the bull's point of view. Again, not a bull, not a bear. So I don't care which way the market goes. But speaking from the bull's point of view, the two things they had going for them was the market still didn't have technical damage because, again, technical damage only results when you confirm a trend. And two things, there wasn't really a heavy aggressive put options being bet on the darlings that were bid up in the first place. So we kind of wanted to see what would happen on Friday. And my initial game plan going into Friday was, well, if we get any gap up, I mean any gap up today, this will be a gift. If they reverse, they're going to pull the plug and if they confirm the 20-day moving average, we're going to get a pretty aggressive sell-off. That happened. That happened on Friday was an incredibly aggressive day. The reason why this 20-day moving average is so very, very important. If you go back into the chart, even go back to March. Not even March. When the market started rallying, every single time we hit the 20-day moving average, we bounced. Hit the 20, we bounced. Hit the 20, we bounced. Hit the 20, we bounced. Hit the 20 to be determined. So I had a game plan for Friday basically on beta and just said, look, if they gap up, they're probably going to hit supply and when they start rolling over and start confirming their previous day's channels, I think they're going to pull the plug on the tape. The problem with Friday's session, and this is kind of what we kind of segue into the pivots, the early part of Friday's session was these things gapped up really too much. So I was watching the airlines, I was watching the cruise ships, the Robin Hood crowd, allegedly, but I was expecting them to gap up $1, $1.5, maybe $2. They all gapped up like six. Everything gapped up a lot. Amazon gapped up like 35 points. Boeing gapped up like 15 points and I said to myself, wow, this is kind of odd. I got the gap up that I wanted. I want to see the game plan play out. But are these things too much? And that was kind of the only question I had to ask myself. Are these things up too much for us to take advantage? Because again, for Amazon to go from up 36, 40 points to go red in the first hour, hour and a half of the day, that might be a little bit of a stretch. That almost might be a scenario that, well, we're putting ourselves in a really dangerous situation, but slowly but surely again, this is why we say trading is the greatest reality show that's not on television, you soon to realize that everything is on the table. Everything is possible. The market could have went up Friday 2,000 points. The market could have crashed 2,000 points. And this is why I say, again, when you put the research in, when you do the work from the previous day and you give your thesis every chance to play out and not deviate from your game plan and not prostitute your money on less than high probability setups, usually good things are going to happen and you will get rewarded. I just didn't expect that everything was literally going to come in and the channels were going to make it from a really very borderline pass of day into one of the more aggressive sessions of the week. These were my notes. These were my notes from, well, this is from the day before, not sure the game plan could have been smoother. That was the rug pull incredible session on Thursday. But for Friday, this is the morning notes on the Twitter feed. Now, look, look, I was expecting a gap up to fade, but I wasn't expecting this big of a gap up. And my first thought process was, look, we got to stay patient to see which way they confirm. I wanted to stay patient and I also kept on reiterating in the live webinar that, you know what, if we're kind of in no man's land today, not up, not down, kind of the middle, obviously the play from Monday will be sell biased, but it's okay to kind of sit it out. And as you guys remember the previous Friday, the Dow was up a thousand points. I only had a couple of scouts literally to the short side that Friday. I was very, very patient. Obviously Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were phenomenal days. I mean, really, really aggressive a trading week. So I had no problems sitting it out, but slowly but surely things started clicking and the great thing about patience and again, it's a very, very, very useful word if treated properly. Patience is very loosely used. A lot of people use it. A lot of people don't understand why. A lot of people say you got to be patient. Most people understand what they're being patient for. As you start trading longer and longer and many years go by, you get it. You understand what a premium hand looks like. So I was really ready to kind of sit it out and just kind of wait. But little by little things started playing out very, very aggressively. So let's talk about the Friday session, just very incredibly aggressive, both long, both short. Thursday, we got a crazy pivot on ZM that, if you guys remember, that 2.11.5, 2.12 pivot exploded. Took out the high of the day, took out the 52-week high, went to like 2.32, explosion. Stock came in, but again, this was the pure play of any uptick of the coronavirus. And again, what we're seeing is we're possibly going to see more data come out over the weekend of how aggressive kind of the new cases are again. But 2.25 keeps on getting rejected at the 60-minute needs to reclaim and build. So here was Zoom. I missed this trade. It was way too thin for me. I know a lot of you guys did catch it. I missed it. It was just way too thin. Went too fast, way too thin. So here is the here. 2.25, 2.25, 2.25, 2.25 kept on getting rejected. It took out 2.25 and just exploded the 2.31.5. Again, for all you guys who did catch it, I unfortunately did miss it, but it is what it is. Netflix, again, another pure play on the corona second wave of uptick. 4.33 supply needs to reclaim and build. Again, not a big move, not a big move. But this is when, to be all fair, this is when the market really started getting a little bit tired. So here is the whole 4.33 area. And excuse me, this is the 4.33 area the day before. This is the trade that really went nuts. This is the area here, this whole area right here. It took out the 4.33, only put up like a $1.50 move. And this is where the rug pull came. And this is kind of when we start really getting into some really aggressive moves here. Boeing was huge. 185 supply needs to build. Boeing absolutely exploded, right? So here is the 185 right here, right? 185, 185, 185. And Boeing won again. If you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply, demand to demand, then again, it needs to trade it right into supply. Boeing put up a $7 candle into supply, so huge move there. GBT, and again, and I said this, I go, don't get too aggressive to the long side. I go, I go not in love with anything, okay? Patience today, you don't need to trade. That's the premium hands only. Again, so you really started seeing the thought process, don't get too aggressive. I don't love what I'm seeing here. GBT, 62.40, 62, if it builds below, can flush. Here is GBT, right? Took out the 62.40, went all the way down to 60. And then things started getting very aggressive to the downside. Lululemon, 94.50, 294, if it builds below, can flush more. Here is Lululemon, right? So here is the 94, 294, 294, 294, 294, broke 294, finally went down all the way down to 290. ZM obviously take on the way up, Boeing take on the way up. Again, there's very little value at the open. So again, keep on taking these plays. They all started going. 92 is supply. It went to 90, 91.5. And here is Tesla. I mean, again, I hate to sound like a broken record. Is there anything better than the stock? I'll wait. Is there any better trader than stock? Massive moves to the upside Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. They got downgraded on Friday. They gapped up. And anytime you see a gap, stock gap up. After a downgrade, you know what's about to happen next. 969, if it builds below, can flush. I caught a pretty good move on this thing. That's a 60-minute low on the downgrade this morning. And here is, I mean, probably the trade of the day, the move of the day. So here is 969. Let me just see where it is. So here is 969. This whole sneaky pivot here. So once it started building below 969, it took out the previous low of 954. And I thought of this shot. It was going to get down to the 920s. It went all the way down to 912. Just destroyed. Absolutely destroyed. I know a lot of you guys did incredibly well. Definitely the move of the day for me. So great job on Tesla. Absolutely great job. Roku, again, you can start seeing one by one. They started getting hit. Roku, 107.75. It builds below, can flush. Here was Roku. Right here was Roku. Here's the 109.75 right here. You know, excuse me, 107.75. And I said it has a shot. It gets down to 105.50. It went down to 105.35. The reason why I said that, it's the rising Bollinger Band. So big move on Roku as well. Yeah, I mean, let's go. I mean, what are you going to say? Let's go. Take on the way down. First area was 960. It got below 960.107 on deck. This was, again, this is the big macro move of the day. Cues, again, held 238 twice if they build below, can flush. Usually I wouldn't put an ETF, but it was such a significant area that if the queue started breaking below that 60-minute channel, there was a shot we were going to go red in the day. And the queues went red. Usually it's very, very rare. So here's the 238, right? Here's the 238. This rising support here on this trend, 238, 238. It broke 238. They went red on the day. They went to 231.88. Phenomenal. I mean, absolutely phenomenal move. Just a destruction. Absolutely. When you see nearly a $7 candle on an ETF, you know how aggressive these moves are. So phenomenal. Absolutely phenomenal move. You know, Tesla 947 on deck, you know, destroyed. I mean, absolutely destroyed. And it was one of the more, and I said, oh my God, right, this is a $7 candle. It's just absolutely amazing. Just absolutely amazing. And the moral of the story is, again, it's not about what the scoreboard said. It's all about technical analysis. And I said this many, many times. Especially if you're a brand new trader and you're underfunded, okay, your emotional levels are through the roof. You pretty much have very little or small guidance. And I said, is the smartest thing you can possibly do or start your trading career is jumping on a stock on command because somebody tells you to. And unfortunately, you know, because traders are so social media driven, okay, and they want to jump on the hot stock, they usually really get a really poor foundation. And the idea that you are buying a stock because somebody tells you to is the first way and the fastest way to be a statistic. And the last thing you want to do if you're a serious trader or you want to be a trader, just, you know, again, it's all about technical analysis, guys. I understand that it's exciting buying a stock of 400%, but if you really sit back, right, if you really sit back and just analyze what I said, it just doesn't make any sense. So technical analysis is the way to go. So technically, let's see what we talk about for next week. At first when I was charting, I turned around and I said, wow, this is, you know, we're definitely sell buys. You know, the Dow was down 1800 points and we were only up 500 today. We're going to go lower, right? That was my first indication. I looked at charts yesterday and then I woke up this morning. I said, well, let me look at them again. Here is the part where the uncertainty comes in, kind of on a coin flip for going to next week. Again, we saw how important the 20-day moving average is because, again, every time it hit, right, it started the next leg up, it hit, next leg up, hit, next leg up. What I liked, what I saw from the bulls was they reclaimed the 20-day moving average. So if you believe in just history, recent history, every single time we reclaimed the 20-day, we went higher, then at least you have a case that the market will go higher next week. Here's what my problem is, right? I saw how easy the queues went down. I saw how easy there was no bounce on Thursday. I saw how easy these stocks got destroyed on Friday. So I have that in my mental memory bank, okay? And for me, I will give in a weird way and I understand the bulls did a great job of reclaiming the 20-day moving average. But at least from Monday, okay? I want to give the bears the benefit of the doubt. Again, just from what I'm seeing from the naked eye test of how easy these bids are going away and how aggressive these stocks are flushing, at least for Monday, at least for the first hour or so Monday, I do want to give the bears the benefit of the doubt. This area here, and again, there is no room for interpretation. This area here, this 231.74, is the line in the sand, okay? There is no room for interpretation. There is no point of arguing. Here's the line in the sand. So if the bears reclaim and start building below this 231.74 on the queues, we have a lot of room down, guys, all the way down to the 223.222 level into the next rising support. So be very, very wary. Again, trade smart. If you're a new trader, again, and you have the luxury to having an experienced trader in your life, pick their brain, okay? Again, it's not about what you can do today. It's what you can set yourself up for the future. And if, again, if you are trading irresponsibly in your own, your only course of action is the pre-market high list or having some random avatar tell you when to buy a stock, knowing that they bought a stock ahead of you, that you're on the road to, you know, you're on the road to, to, to game over. Guys, stay safe, stay blessed. I love you all and God's help. I'll see you all when they take care of you. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 Vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. 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