 This is Covering the Spread, part of the Fandall podcast network. Super Bowl 57 is all set. We have got the Eagles facing off with the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57 coming up in just 13 days, which means we have 13 days to pick apart both these teams, analyze every which side of this game, and get you set for what should be, I think, a pretty fun game. And I'm excited for this one. We're going to break down what my numbers say. The first look at Super Bowl 57 breakdown, what my numbers say, compared to the betting markets over at Fandall Sportsbook, we've already seen a lot of movement in those markets already, similar to what we saw last week. So I think it'll be a fun one. We'll recap last week as well and get you a first look to lock in those initial bets for this year's big game. This is Covering the Spread right here on the Fandall podcast network. And NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here, like I said, to give my first look at Super Bowl 57 breaking down what my numbers say about Chiefs versus Eagles relative to the market, there is a money line I like in this game. We're going to break down that, the adjustments I'm making to account for the Chiefs' health and much more to get you ready for this game. Before I dive in, though, I do want to give you a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to Covering the Spread because we had this first look for today. The rest of the week, though, a lot of other sports discussion. We've got some PGA coming up. We've got NBA, NHL, I'll sneak in some NASCAR. I promise I'll plug it at the end of the show so you're not subjected to it. If you don't want to listen to it, we'll talk about the clash there. Also, EPL coming up on Friday. So a big week here on the show that next week, we're going to have a lot of Super Bowl stuff coming your way. 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Now let's dig in here to Super Bowl 57 Breakdown, what we're seeing here in this matchup is a really fun one because the Chiefs yesterday had a 62% success rate on late downs and obviously you can talk, but hey, they got an extra third down, stuff like that, the referee stuff happens, you know, it happens every single way, happened to go against the Bengals a couple of times in key spots yesterday. But overall, the Chiefs yesterday, 62% success rate on late downs. League averages here is 44%, so the Chiefs were cooking even with a hobbled quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and three injured wide receivers. So 62% yesterday, league average 44%, for the full season, including playoffs, the Chiefs late down success rate is now 52.94%. That is the best mark in the league by full percentage point. There's only one team in the league within 1.5 percentage points of that and that team is the Eagles. So when I run my new models power rankings this year with no adjustments, these wind up being the best two teams, the best team in the ASC versus the best team in the NFC. And what more could you ask for? You get two really fun offenses, two good enough defenses, at least the Eagles is good enough Chiefs can be, you know, up and down for sure. But we get the best team in the ASC versus the best team in the NFC. I don't really think we can complain too much about that. So we now turn toward the market. Right now, Fando has a total of this game at 49 and a half. The spread is Eagles minus one and a half with minus 118 on the one and a half. So it seems like we're more likely to get that two than to get that down to one or anything like that. Eagles money line is minus 126, the Chiefs are a plus 108. So it's a relatively even game that features a lot of points and favors the Eagles. So where do my numbers line up relative to those markets? If I make no adjustments, no adjustments on the Chiefs side, I get the Chiefs minus 2.92 and the Chiefs minus 1.24 based on the model. Again, the reason why the second model, the newer model is lower on them is because it assumes they'll regress on late downs and they haven't yet. So the other one's more okay saying, yeah, they're probably just good. That's why it doesn't 2.92. And the new one has a Chiefs minus 1.24 either way, both leaning towards the Chiefs and the total with no adjustments is 51.53. So that would push you towards the over. If we had Mahomes and the receiver's fully healthy, I would take the Chiefs and I would take the over 49 and a half. But I do think we need some sort of downward adjustment in there for the Chiefs. The question is how much? How much is it worth with the receiver health, with Mahomes' ankle, stuff like that? As of now, we don't know which receivers will be able to play. I'd assume Justin Watson will be able to go. He was an active yesterday due to an illness. So he'll be healthier. And that means if they have Watson, they'll have MVS, they'll have Skymore, they'll have guys like that. And as a result, I think we can say pretty definitively that the Chiefs will be healthier in two weeks than they were last night. And maybe they get one of Juju Smith-Schuster, Kaderius Tony, Miko Harbin able to play. Otherwise, it's Watson, Marquez-Val, the Scantling and Skymore, along with probably a lot of multiple tight end sets. So I'm going to put a downgrade in there for the receiver health, because I can't assume all those guys will be back. As for Mahomes, I'm not going to downgrade him as much, at least not as much as I did for this week. He played through the injury. He was efficient on late downs, as mentioned. He now has two weeks to get healthier. So I'm going to downgrade them for the wide receivers, I think more so than for Mahomes. I'm also going to downgrade the Chiefs rushing offense. I did that last week too for a couple of reasons. The first one is that Mahomes won't scramble as much. Those are key for rushing efficiency. So downgrade because of that. But second, the Chiefs offense, like most offenses, is better, more efficient running under center than from the gun. And they did still run under center a bit last night, but it definitely did skew more towards the gun than usually, at least anecdotally. I didn't check the numbers on that, but it seemed like they were running more so from shotgun versus under center than what they typically do. And the rushing offense really did struggle last night. I would not be shocked if that carries over. Now Mahomes is healthier. I would bet they go back to what they typically do, but I don't want to assume that fully. So I'm going to put a slight downgrade to the passing offense because of the receivers. And then I'll also downgrade the rushing offense due to both scrambling and the more gun-heavy approach. I also have to adjust the Eagles up, describe about the two games with Garter Minshew. Passing efficiency in those games is pretty even, but they're rushing efficiency one way down. So after making those tweaks, then where do I stand compared to the market? Both models, the new one and the old one, do still have the Chiefs favored just by less than they were before. The traditional model, the one that I've had more success with this year has the Chiefs favored by 1.49. The other model has a Chiefs by 0.20. So that game effectively a toss up in the new model, which means both these models are showing value in the Chiefs money line. So I'm going to take that right now. It's plus one to eight at Fando Sportsbook. You can get it at plus one 10 at some other spots. So as always, the caveat is shop around. I think that I'm okay taking this now. Last week we saw that crazy movement where the Chiefs were a minus one 16. They got as long as plus one 20, I think at one point. We saw all that movement. And last night we saw a similar stuff where the, I think Fando had the Eagles opening at minus one 12 on the money line. And it lengthened really fast. So we could see more movement, but then overnight we saw it come back down. So based on that, based on the overnight movement, I don't think we'll see this get a lot longer than plus one 10 or plus 108. So, and given the adjustments I'm making on both sides, even the fact that I'm accounting for, my home's being banged up, the wide receivers are ready. I do feel confident in my number being right here. And that number tells me to bet the Chiefs on the money line. If you can get plus two, I'm fine scaling that bet with the money line if you want the points and the money line. But honestly for me, I'm just going straight money line. I'm living that way personally. It's more so personal preference. If you want to add the plus two, I get it, not opposed. I think that would make sense. The other ripple effect of the downgrades to the Chiefs offense is that I no longer have interest in the total. My new number has it at 49.97. So it is still over the total of 49 and a half. And you could say there's value in the over, but it's less than half a point. 51 is a key number, I would get that. That's a good thing. But I still just don't think there's quite enough value to bet this right now. If it weren't a shift, I'm open to revisiting. And honestly with Super Bowl to see a lot of public money. So you do see decent movement in the market at times. If this were to shift, I'm open to revisiting. I don't think my number will budge much from 49.97 because there's no wind to account for in this game. So if that were to come down, I could see myself buying it. I'd want to at least get across 49. 49 is not a huge key number. It's about two and a half or so per cent. It's not a huge key number, but it helps for sure. So if it goes down under 49, maybe I revisit at that point. But for right now, I'm probably gonna hold off. Other route to potentially betting this would be if we get good news on the homes or the past catchers. But for right now, I'm probably avoiding the full game total and sticking with the other market. So for right now, sticking with just the cheese money line at plus 108. One other thing I wanted to discuss quickly isn't it, Pacheco? Because we won't be discussing our full prop show until next week, but with sports books focusing so much on this game, I wouldn't be shocked to see a lot of props go up. You actually got some interesting ones up already, like some unique markets at FanDuel already. So I think we'll see some props going up. Anytime touchdown score, markets are up already. They're very short. So I wouldn't bet them right now. They'll likely lengthen. But there is some stuff up there. So I wanna talk about Pacheco's role last night because he played a 56% snap rate in that game. That was Pacheco's second highest mark of the year. It was his first time above 50% since week 12. Jerick McKinnon had his breakout in week 14. So this is the first time since then we saw Pacheco play more than half the snaps. Pacheco is less efficient running from shotgun than under center, but he's a lot better out of shotgun than McKinnon is. So if they decide to go with a shotgun heavy offense again, that would be a good thing for Pacheco. So that's the positive there. He also had six targets in this game which doubled as previous high. So I would take a long look at Pacheco's rushing plus receiving number once that's up. It is not up as of right now, but once it is up, I check that out. His anytime touchdown prop is plus 115. Nope, I think that's too short. But again, I think that market entirely will lengthen at some point. So not there now, but we'll check it out later. And then finally, I would at least give some thoughts. I don't tend to bet MVP markets because the hold on them tends to be prohibitive. But if you're in a state that allows betting MVP markets, I don't think Pacheco at 50 to one is like the dumbest thing I've ever seen. He's the same odds as Darius Lay. Darius Lay is a great football player, but he's a defensive player, Hassan Reddix at 50 to one too. He's same odds as Jerick McKinnon, despite having a lot more of a role than him last night. So if I were to bet an MVP, which I again, have not and likely will not, I would lean towards Pacheco 50 to one for Super Bowl MVP. I'm sure a lot of you having like Damian Williams flashbacks to that 49er Super Bowl where he probably should have won it and didn't. But I think Pacheco is undervalued there. So he's the guy I'm looking at primarily for props. Someone who could be undervalued in the market once props initially go up. Again, not the anytime touchdown market. That number is too short for me, but other spots rushing plus receiving maybe some past catching props. Pacheco will be the first guy I am turning to there. So we'll plenty of coverage around this game in the week coming up. Gonna be a fun one for sure. Next week will be our primary Super Bowl focus, but hopefully this gives you a good pallet cleanser to get your shops wet before we dive in the full prop offerings. Now, before we wrap up for today, gotta go back into last week and recap what went down here on the show. Of course, my two bets from the Tuesday or Monday show last week were the two money lines. I had the 49ers a plus 122 and the Chiefs at minus 116. 49ers moved against me the entire week, closed around 134, I believe. And I don't know how that would have played out if Brock Purdy hadn't gotten hurt. I don't think it would, like the Eagles played well. So I don't think I can shock that up as like being, as Purdy being hurt. And like I benefited from good variants in the Chiefs game with all the refereeing stuff. So, you know, it happens. And it's a bummer to lose that way, but they were tied 7-7 with Josh Johnson in there. So, you know, I can only say maybe I wasn't totally wrong, but I'm okay with that loss. I think that makes a lot of sense. So Marker moved against me too. So probably just a bad loss and that's okay. The Chiefs won, I got it at 116 on Monday. He again, moved all the way across where they were plus money and like plus 120 at one point and then closed at around minus 134, I believe somewhere in there. So did get good closing line value, did not get the best number. The route to getting good CLV was a nightmare, massive headache, but hey, you know, we'll take it anyway, take the win there regardless of the way we got there and have that. The other one I mentioned, this is more of a Thursday and Friday thing. Thursday I mentioned with Ryan, we were talking that if the total for, or if the wind speed got up another degree, another mile per hour, I'd show value in the under for 49ers and Eagles. It did go up, finished at 12 miles per hour. So I wanted to take in the under. I had it at 44 and a half and it was at 46 and a half at that time, closed at 45 and a half and the under hit there pretty easily. So it depends if you were listening on Thursday, Friday. I'm not gonna count that as like an official recommendation because it was mentioned in passing on Thursday, Friday, but it did go one-on-one on the official ones and then had the under for 49ers versus Eagles as well. Speaking of Ryan, that's Ryan Williams. Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. He was our guest on Thursday for the full NFL preview. Ryan three and five on the week. He had the chiefs plus one when we talked about on Thursday morning. He had a Travis Kelsey anytime touchdown to even money. That one hits. And then he had some Ajay Piran over two and a half receptions at plus 116. Piran finished with just four yards, but at three receptions. So hitting all three of those, the Mrs. for Ryan were the 49ers plus 126. He was on board to be there. He had the over for Eagles 49ers at 46 and a half. He had Debo Samuel over 20 and a half rushing yards. Again, uncertain how much of that had to play into the purdy injury because Debo had six rushing attempts, but there was no effectiveness on them because they didn't have to worry about the pass. So that hurt there. He had Jill and Hertz throw a pick at plus 102 and Perts over one and a half passing touchdowns at plus 108. Again, script playing a big factor there where they threw 25 times and none of those were like super risky throws. There were some good throws and they're like the Devonte Smith was sick, but like, you know, uncertain how that would play out if the script had been different. But other one for Ryan was a Tyler Boyd in a touchdown at plus 280. He got hurt. He had two receptions and four then 40 yards, but getting hurt there kind of a bummer. So unsure of how things would have played out if not for the purdy injury, not for the Boyd injury, but that's how Ryan's week went there. We have Brandon Cadula on talk props on Friday. Brandon went forward too on his prop recommendations. The hits were George Kittle under 46 and a half receiving yards. He finished with 32. He had Joe Burrow over 24 and a half completions. That was a minus 122. Burrow finished with 26 there. Brandon had Cadarius Tony under 35 and a half receiving yards. He got hurts and had I think like 17 or so. So as always injuries go both ways. You're allowed a bit unders too. He did with Cadarius Tony. That one worked out for him. And then the other one was Brandon also had a Kelsey touchdown at minus 105. Anytime touchdown there. So both Brandon and Ryan hitting on that one. Mrs. Brandon were purdy over seven and a half rushing yards. You know, again, injuries happen just kind of the name of the game. If you bet long enough, you know, injuries can break both ways for you, especially if you're not just betting overs at all times. So that can definitely happen. And then AJ Brown anytime touchdown at plus 155. The other one in there for Brandon as those primarily rushing touchdowns for the Eagles in this game. So forward to week for Brandon on props. Other one we had last week was Brandon talking PGA for the farmers insurance open. He went two and two. The hits were Sung Jae him to be the top Asian player. He was plus 230, Bina Hideki Matsuyama by think two strokes that one. Sung Jae finished fifth and Hideki was like ninth or so. So good hit there. Other one was a dead heat. Dean Burmester was tops out that for going to plus 170. He tied with Dylan Fratelli. So dead heat rules apply there. It's not a full win at plus 170 but still getting some money back in there. With that one, Mrs. Brandon, where the two outright. He had wills out at Taurus at 14 to one. Xander Shafley at 11 to one to win. And it was Max Homa fun guy to follow on Twitter rallying to win that events. I saw someone who had a Sam Ryder ticket at 300 to one trying to decide they're going to cash out. I hope they did. Get your money there. But Max Homa, fun guy to root for. Good win for him and good week overall for Brandon across both PGA and the NFL. Find Brandon on Twitter. I could do a 13 check out his golf work over at number fire. We'll also talk some PGA this week over on our DFS show, the heat check fantasy podcast and here tomorrow on covering the spread. Speaking of which, that is all that we have here for today. PGA coming up this week, NBA, NHL, EPA, NASCAR all in the same feed. Setting up for next week to talk more Super Bowl props and much more to get you said for Super Bowl 57 between the cheese and the Eagles. Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts to get these as they are posted to get those best numbers before markets shift after we discuss them here on the show and also check out the Fandall YouTube page if you want the video version of these shows. If you've got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast. I wanna thank you all for tuning in for today. Hope you enjoyed the conference championship games. I hope you had a profitable week. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to get said for the AT&T, I think it's Pebble Beach next week for PGA. We'll talk to Brandon about that tomorrow and confirm exactly which event it is. This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network.