 Welcome traders to another tick mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 20th of June with me Patrick Monday In terms of the US next week on Monday markets are closed for Juneteenth National Independence Day the focus there is going to shift towards housing and Related markets which are left vulnerable really after the Fed policy announcements with the Federal Reserve signaling It has a strong stomach for the fight against inflation We could expect further significant interest rate hikes in coming months But by going harder and faster into restrictive territory There is a greater risk of a hard landing and a potential recession housing market is particularly vulnerable given prices are up nearly 40% nationally since the start of the pandemic due to stimulus fuel demand vastly outstripping The limited supply of properties for sale now that mortgage rates have surged higher and consumer confidence has plunged It's it's really starting to see demand weaken and supply rise the number of new home sales plunged 16.6% in April and Markets are anticipating that if there is any rebound in May That's existing home sales are measured when the keys are received rather than when the contracts are signed As for new home sales, so expect to see a big drop in May's existing home sales print This is a worrying as residential construction accounts for more than 2% of economic output while housing transactions also correlate strongly with spending on furniture home furniture home furnitures and Electronics so from a technical perspective. What does that leave us in terms of the dollar index? Well, we came just shy of that 106 target that we're looking for as a minimum upside technical target versus the potential way for Consolidation so we are looking now as the potential to hold here above the 103 handle If we do we're looking for price to extend to the upside test into that 106 20s We've got some nice momentum divergence developing and so watching there for bearish reversal patterns to potentially engage on the short side looking for a Correction at a minimum down back into the potential way for low that one 130s now Alternatively if we take out the lows at the 103 there Then I've been looking for a break of trend line support down through one or two forties and a potential then to extend down to at least test back into the 100 level and then 99 30s there that prior double top for the upside extension Then we have trend channel support back to 98 60 so we can be pivotal to see if we can hold those 103 20s As we head into next week moving to the eurozone Voters head to the polls today Sunday for legislative elections in France observers believe president manual macrons parliamentary majority could be under threat and we have really hot temperatures across Europe And that may impact turnouts in terms of data really the focus is going to be on Thursday eurozone PMI Expectations are for the June manufacturing metric to fall to fifty four point one from fifty four point six services Are also anticipated in fine from fifty five point five to fifty six point one leaving the composite at fifty four point one versus the fifty four point eight Which printed in May? It's also important that may release sort did see a down tick in terms of the composite metric But ultimately remaining in expansionary territory with the survey stating that the driving force of the expansion was the dominant services sector as ongoing supply side disruptions the war in Ukraine and subdued demand for goods restrained the manufacturing output growth this time we are looking for a A release that will show higher costs are starting to hurt the cyclical Manufacturing industry as energy prices continue their relentless surge Pickup in services as consumers rotate their spending to services away from goods as the economies continue to reopen This is also why market watches expect services sector to remain robust despite the increasing economic headwinds So from a technical perspective the euro-dollar Potential double bottom last week into those 103 fifties did see some demand come into the market Daily V-waps have flipped bullish, but however momentum remains negative at this stage So key as we head into this week is going to be any testing this 106 fifties the trend channel resistance If we get bearish reversal patterns there I've been looking to re-engage on the short side looking for a minimum test of the 102 20s versus that last corrective phase Now the alternative scenario is that we see increased Bids come into the market and take out this trend channel resistance So any move through that 106 70s to engage on the long side looking them for a test of monthly projected range resistance just below 108 and then we could also start to think about a target up into the trend channel resistance coming in 110 40s, so really going to keep see how we respond at that 106 50 for the euro this week Heading to the UK Quite a bit of data out this week starts midweek Wednesday with UK inflation Expectations are for a euro the year CPI print for made to cut 9.1% from 9% last time out Whilst the core metric is C remaining at 6.2% The jump in the April print from 7 to 9% was predominantly a Byproduct of the increase in off-gen price cap of an oven which will not be repeated in May's release This time around Look for for a unchanged headline rate of 9% and this suggests that food and energy Will likely continue to place upward pressure on prices However, this could be moderated this time around by clothing and footwear given the surge seen in May Then we head to Thursday We get UK PMIs and expecting the metric to decline for to 53 from the last 53.4% from manufacturing Tick lower to 54.2 from 54.6 The May report saw a notable decline in the headline composite metric and in a chunky drop in the services print Which actually fell from 58.953.4 the less of global noting that last round of input cost Inflation was the steepest since the index began in 1996 while the monthly loss of momentum for business activity Expansion was a survey record outside of the lockdown periods That said analysts expect more modest decline the composite release to 52.7 from 53.1 It's also noteworthy that the recent messaging from the PMIs appears to contradict the outcome of the April GDP print and therefore any optimism in the upcoming release might be questioned by market participants Then we round up the week on Friday with UK retail sales expectations after headline month-on-month retail sales to 4 1% Versus 1.4% increase seen in the prior report whilst the core metric is expected to decline to 0.2% versus the prior 1.4% the coming release will follow the April report which saw an unprecedented expansion for headline of core month-on-month metrics after two consecutive months of decline From a technical perspective for Sterling tested that long-awaited target We've been looking for that 120 tests traded down as low as 1935 before we saw decent demand coming into the market and we got the daily VWAP flip bullish heading into Thursday about Friday Saw some weakness developed and we're back now testing pivotal support here 121.50s this is going to be the line in the sand this week for the ball bear Scenario for me if we can hold this one twenty fifties then I look for an extension up into the 126.50s through that trend line resistance That's going to be a key test as well 124.75 keep an eye on that if we don't Maintain the 121.50s as support then we look for a move back down to retest prior swing lows and ultimately extend down into trend channel Descending trend channel support down below 118 on the downside So key to see how we respond at the 121.50s this week for Sterling in Japan Pretty like state of Cal alone in one release of milk really that's Thursday's CPI print Consensus is your over your core nationwide 2.1 cent versus the prior 2.1 cent consumer price inflation Lightly stayed unchanged at 2.5 cent in May for two straight months The government's expanded fuel subsidy program continues to offset movements in the by-crew prices The meanwhile obviously the key is the bank of Japan's preferred measure of core inflation excluding Fresh food energy likely edged up to zero point nine cent euro the elusman from a zero point eight cents in the prime month And obviously bank of Japan out on Friday released on Friday their Interest rate decision they are just flooding the market with liquidity Ultra-loose military policy there compared to all the major economies in terms of the central banks looking to tighten Financial conditions so from a technical perspective the dolly end tested back into that 131.40s, which we were looking for last week and we saw Decent demand coming out on Friday post that be a jade decision So what I'm looking for now is a move back through 135.40s and we have a target there 136.77 and 138.16 in extension So there's a minimum upside objectives for this move at this stage It would take a close back through 131.10 to suggest we have a more meaningful high in place That says we'll be looking for a move back down to test support to the 126.50s But for now looks like we have a bullish setup and we're looking for a new cycle highs as we head into the new trading week and we're rounding things out down under in Australia the only real Release of note this week is gonna be the Tuesday's RBA minutes Minutes from the June meeting but the central bank height rates by 50 basis points to 0.85 Remember the expectation there was just for a 25 basis points increase and note that inflation in Australia has increased significantly While it reiterated its commitment to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation Returns the target over time the RBA also stated that inflation is likely to be higher than expected a month ago And that the board expects to take further steps in normalising monetary conditions over the months ahead With the size and timing of future interest increases to be guided by Incoming data and the assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market furthermore Note whether the Australian economy appears resilient although Sources suggest that uncertainty about the outlook is how household spend involves given the increasing pressure on finances from higher inflation So from a technical perspective the Aussie dollar We are still looking for an equality objective 6640 on the downside versus the swing high here at 76 60 rejected from The 70s 60 area this week So I'm looking now for follow-through back through the price cycle loads here 6820s One of the on the short side targeting that equality objectives 6640s at this stage We really need to see a break of the trend line resistance and high volume load here towards the 72 handle to suggest We have a more meaningful lower place and then we can start to think about range resistance back up into the 75 40s and that concludes the weekly market outlook for a week commencing The 20th of June as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage all this until next week. Thanks very much