 The following is a presentation of TFNN, The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour. Does it matter where you're at in the world as long as you're here at the appointed time? The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So we got the Fed just come out with minutes, S&Ps down 28 points, NASDAQ off almost about 250. Dow had a big pop in the morning, it's back to, I'm going to call it flat at the moment, let's see what else we have here, down to 27, a little better than that. Off 24 on the S&P, NASDAQ down 250, 251, Russell off about a percent, 2246, and of course really the thing that I'm paying attention to is the reversal today on the bonds of the TLT. It tried to run a little up a little higher in the morning and it was instantly crushed. As we talked yesterday, I suspect that we're coming back to 137-139 for the first step and we could get down as low as 136-132 I think in the first round of what the Fed is doing and that is probably the most important thing. That being said, why we had a little bit of selling, nothing's been broken in the market quite yet and the Fed's job is to always kind of let the market pull back slowly. They don't like things moving quickly because that's when things break and people that probably shouldn't have been doing what they've been doing get exposed and whether it's the dot com pop in 2000 or the housing bubble in 2008. You always find out as Warren Buffett says, who's swimming without a bathing suit when the tide goes out, the Fed is always trying to figure out who was doing what they shouldn't have been doing. But generally, if it happens slower, of course, you always have a little bit more opportunity to respond. So always a little worried about that. You can give me a call today, 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at tfnn.com and I've got some questions. But again, it would mean that I am reading the mind and the future mind of the Fed and its Fed president. But I'm probably more going to react when I see signs that they get involved than predict the absolute bottom. I'm very good at predicting what a lot of people will do. I'm very bad at predicting what a single individual or even a handful like the Fed will do. But I think when you look at betting pools like the bond market, you get a pretty good wisdom of crowds kind of thing going on with the market. So we'll keep an eye on it. Again, 877-927-6648, now we're probably going to have a lot of back and forth here over the next hour. I don't know if we're going to get any kind of clear referendum on the Fed notes. But it had been good so far today. The reversal off the highs on the Dow also are interesting. But if you listen long enough, you'll find people that are just continually wrong all the time. But they may be right on one thing. Yesterday had me kind of thinking the standard thing from Joe Granville, and that was he always said that when the Titanic's hit, the first thing is all the people run to the stern of the ship because it went down by the bow. But when I look at it, all I can think of is everybody running into the quote-quote safe stocks yesterday was really not something very good. It just tells you eventually that all of them are headed lower. But over time, will the Dow probably outperform in this year? Probably, but we're going to have to get to some level that the Fed stops at and then see what happens. And you don't know how that's going to happen. Generally I can say that the market, once it figures out the Fed is really not lying to it and doesn't fold like a $5 suitcase as it has in the past, then you're going to get a very sharp correction. That correction will happen extremely quickly, and then at that point you'll find out whether or not it's worth buying or not. But generally you get those fast reactions, and then the market settles down for a while and the Fed won't do much until maybe if inflation is still high, they'll go down and ratchet another round of tightening into everything. But there's a lot that they can do on a daily basis that they don't have to talk to us about, a lot about the balance sheet. But I don't think you can bet on anything other than the TLT heading lower in the next week. As I said before, I thought we could get down to 139-ish within the next seven days, and I don't think that that is a stretch, depending on the way that the markets are already acting. But you don't know if the Fed is going to decide to just jump in front of that bus and stop it, which is always the thing. If you have a lot of people, easy to tell. If you have a few people, they're really not sure what they're thinking of down below. But I think that we're probably going to get to 139, at least when you read the charts before the Fed starts, like I said, jumping in front of the train. Well, let's take a look. Now we're off 32, 33 on the S&P cash, NASDAQ's down to 90. A lot of froth in those NASDAQ stocks. But I think right now, as far as the street goes, it's all about the PE. They want things that everybody's going to be running for the things that have, at least at the beginning, dividends and stocks with low PEs and good balance sheets. They want people as interest rates go higher. They want companies that don't need money, which is probably why you're going to see something like Apple not do horribly. But you're going to find other stocks that actually truly need money, like the Biotex, almost always under fire. And I have a feeling they could do incredibly well this year. We do need to find them finding some kind of level of support. Now, when we talk about the Biotex, I've been waiting for them to give me a fairly good signal. We should be finding, at least in the IBB, some level of support. Let's take a quick look at the chart as we go to the break. I don't know, a lot of stuff to talk about. I got to read the notes yet, since I was there, really didn't get a good idea. But yeah, I knew we were pretty close. 143.25 on the IBB, that's the September 6th flow. We're going to go back and retest that today. So far, the volume pretty good. Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find the path of least resistance. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Call now. Toll free! At 1-877-927-6648. Internationally. At 727-873-7618. We've got gold moving, and I did not look at it during the break, but I probably should have. I've got the last ticket, 1821, I don't know if that is right or not. You may have some lag in some of these things, maybe somebody in the den can tell me. Anyway, we were talking about the IBB, 1816, okay. Close enough. Yeah, I think this is, I think I've got a couple of things that are delayed here. Not fun. Anyway, we're going to talk about what else is going on in the market. One of the bigger movers today, although it's faded, has been CCJ. I was looking at it fairly hard to buy, and over the last, well, I almost bought it on Friday. It would have been a nice little pop, but I was looking for a very long-term hold in it. You've got the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, I think it's Kazakhstan and the Ukraine. Anyway, resigning, and they are the biggest producers of uranium in the world. And of course, the thought is that it could go into chaos around that area. There's a whole bunch of issues with, I'm trying to think, the whole bunch of issues with, way out of term, corruption that goes back years and even floods into the US political system to the highest level, as they always like to say in the movies, the highest level. If you know what that means in code. But we've got corruption here in the United States. But anyway, they've got worse corruption there. And of course, he did something that they didn't like and started raising prices on energy. For a country that's got energy coming out the years, well, the whole kit and caboodle of the government got tossed out before they got murdered, hung, spindled and mutilated by the people inside the country. And that's what Comico bounced today on. So uranium, as you're watching that, just know that it's a supply and demand issue. But there were probably way too many people short Comico thinking it was going to go back to a longer term trend lower. But uranium, back on the front lines of, what else is there? Comments in the dead. Anyway, we're off 41 on the S&P. So yeah, back down a lot of stuff does not look good out here. The first question of the day and then we'll get to Nvidia, which is the second question of the day. The first question of the day was on Tesla. Where would I see this on a long-term scale of selling? Almost all of these, if they break the three-day downside, I mean the three-day displaced moving average, these things could see a world of hurt. I'm not a big fan, as we talked about Tesla yesterday, in the big scheme of things. Who lied more? The gal that's now going to jail for the private company, which she lied about, or the Tesla motors in which we've got the CEO who has lied, I'm going to say, ten times of major lies. I was thinking about actually doing it. I may do it tomorrow, and that is a montage of everything that he said that has never come true. He said in 2017 that he'd have 30,000 taxis, self-driving taxis by 2019. That's three years in the rearview mirror with nothing. In 2019, he said it was a year away from delivering semis that ran on batteries to haul around big trucks. What we found out is that even a high school dropout could have figured out if he'd spent one year in physics that 80, 70% of the load would have had to be batteries to pull anything approaching 80,000 pounds. So probably not a good idea. What else do we have? Oh, the hyperloop. After all that, brouhaha, he did drill a tunnel, and it cost exactly what everybody else charged for tunnels before he charged for that, but he was, of course, going to drop the price of tunnels by 90%, didn't happen at all. Solar roofs, and I think this is going to be his downfall. We talked about it in the den for a little bit yesterday. That is, there's a lawsuit stemming from that solar city acquisition in which he saved his brother-in-law, who was the CEO of that company, by buying the company. Of course, he didn't want everybody to think that he wasn't going to stand behind everything. So he used one company to absorb the faults of many other companies, but mostly on solar city. Anyway, seven people, humans, have already settled that lawsuit. Those are directors, people around it, everybody else. One person that hasn't settled that lawsuit is Musk himself. And my guess is they're going to drive this lawsuit into the courts where they're going to get discovery, and they're going to be able to read all the juicy emails of where he said all kinds of stuff internally, and it won't match what he said externally in the company. And of course, at that point, maybe they'll be willing to cough up a little bit more money. But when you look at him, he said he had to sell a lot of his shares, and I think he sold $4 billion worth of his own shares so far. Just remember that is now on the market. And also, why did he sell those? Well, he's going to need some cash if everything turns south on him. He's going to want to walk away with a little bit of spending money, and $4 billion is fine. But I don't think he spent all that or sold all of that just to pay taxes. I think there's a little more out there. 877-927-6648, we're going to get to NVIDIA here now. I'm off 41 points on the S&P now. As I said, I'm not going to wait probably until the close to see how this market really racks, but it hasn't been good. Then from Todd, the Todd, if you're a big Bojack horseman fan, the Todd. NVIDIA, N-V-D-A, you're kind of coming back into what should be some support. I'm going to say I'm not going to predict more than what it's doing out here, but 270 is support on this. And so far, you've come down with lighter volume. Today will be important as you start to get back into that candle for $272.50 from December 14. We'll be back in a minute. You having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. 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And as we get back to the market, already in progress over most of TFNN, down 40 on the S&P... let's update that just to make sure here... yeah, off $39 in change on the S&P, down 82 on the Dow, but kind of a reversal, but not a huge one off of the highs of $37,000 today. NASDAQ's down $300, but it's been for sale for a little while. Russell, $2,000 down 34 points, which won 1.5%. So it's the second biggest loser, but of course the big loser today... do I have that? I have a losing horn. As I said yesterday, I had an update before the bell yesterday morning in the tech insider just to be extremely worried about being long, any kind of tech stocks. As interest rates go up, people will probably do some things that are probably not quite correct. But a lot of people are thinking that money is going to be hard to get. And of course, it's going to be a little bit more competition. But eventually, I think we're going to find some kind of low. People are going to say, well, as long as I don't invest in these flaky companies that are basically Robinhood, run them up the pole and see if we can run some short squeeze things and actually companies that probably have a product and make some money, that's kind of it. But you can think of other companies like Tesla that are going to have to spend billions and billions and billions to produce cars. That money is going to cost more. Companies that were rather dubious, at least coming back to some levels, but looking at GameStop, well, almost a 10% loser on the day, it's coming back. It's not quite into the low of, what is that, December 14th at 1.2950, 6.5 million shares on that day. We've got a little under 2 million shares. Tomorrow probably going to be a much bigger deal. And we'll see how the market reacts if the selling picks up. So far, not a lot of people selling this. This is off $255.69. It's a company that makes no money and people still are not thinking about selling it, which tells you that why the trend is there. A lot of people are sitting on their hands thinking it's going to do it once again. Eventually, this company, it'll be bankrupt. But like Sears and Kmart before it, they were bankrupt companies in the mid-2000s, late-2000s. We had people like Kramer running around saying they were all land banks, and of course all they did was run those companies up for his buddies, and of course allow them to sell into what was a real estate investment trust, for the most part. There was no chance that Kmart or Sears was ever coming back. Bring me the head of the false prophet, Jim Kramer. No, that's right. 877-927-6648, email me with your questions and see what else we have going on here. As I said, down 42 at the moment. Question about the SMHs. You got the one big problem with the SMHs, and that is what happens if China invades Taiwan or are they just going to continue to threaten them? I'd say last year I kind of put it at a 10% chance. I'm going to say I'm up to about 20% now on China actually invading Taiwan to take it over. That could go up, but one in five chance right now, getting ready for the Olympics is going to happen, I don't know, but I would say a lower chance than a higher chance. They would have done it a little while ago, but after everybody's left and people quit talking about their slaves and human harvesting of organs and all the other stuff that literally comes right out of the playbook of the Nazis in the 1930s, what can you say? You do not have a lower volume test around that 288-290 level. We've seen it come in there, so at the meantime kind of bouncing around between these highs, but the volume is about the same on the high and low. All I can say is short of intervention by China into Taiwan, these all do well. I'm still at the point where I would either be short the SMHs, but if I was going to be long and there probably is a good case for that, not today, but if you get a good test of this 290 level and support hangs and we find out this thing is just bouncing around in a big trading range, I would always play these now with options going forward. There's just too big a risk. At one in five, it doesn't sound like a preponderance of the evidence says they will, but I wouldn't want to wake up and find out my stocks were gutted by 80%, which if you're playing Nvidia or AMD, certainly could be the story of this year later on. Anyway, AMD broke a little bit yesterday. We're coming back to this level of sport that has not yet been tested. That's the 130-60 level. That's December 14th low that had 51 million shares. You got 46 million shares already. So actually coming back a bit. The business is good. That's it. I know Intel has done a little bit better, but I have a feeling a lot of that was based on short covering. They had some good news at CES. It wasn't that good a news, but they did have a lot of shorts in it. They went through the previous high of December 7th, a day that will live in infamy. Had 92 million shares at 55 bucks. You went to 56.17 today. You got about 40 million shares. They're trying to break the previous high on half the volume so far today. So again, I'm not a big fan of Intel. I think it's going to take maybe another year for them to turn around. But yeah, could they have bounces like this? They can't. Other things going on. Question about Apple. Of course, Apple has kind of the same problems other than the fact that they're doing a lot of their assembly and manufacturing in China. Don't know if that changes much of anything. You've got a good sell signal from Apple. It went to 182.13 with 153 million shares back on December 13th. You tested that yesterday with 99 million shares. So tested it on a day that wasn't a holiday. You did it with 50 million less shares and you're pulling back. But is it the end of the world now? Big trading range back down to 167.46 on that one. Other things. We come back. Ron wants to look at birthday, that, and continue on. And I will return Mike MacArthur to the Philippines. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, foresight fund services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. And we got a question from Hector, the heir to the Holly carburetor fortune. Apparently no connection to fuel injection. See what I did there. Anyway, Hector brings up our people still hammering away on AMD and NVIDIA. And the answer is, of course, yes. Every morning in the newsletter, I have a list of the FINRA shorts. Now, you don't know whether or not people covered before the end of the day. But you do know at some point they were short. And it gives you an indication, an inference of where everybody is going on and chasing people. So anyway, AMD and NVIDIA, yeah. Now, is this as much as we've had in the past? No. So in fact, I wrote in my newsletter that we had some of the lowest levels of shorting ever. And one of the reasons why I put some warnings in the newsletters early this week, that is you've got to keep an eye out on what's going to happen. Now, does this mean it's all over, will never be long again? It's time to be short for forever. Just remember that markets go up, even in bear markets, three-fourths of the time. They just go up a whole lot less in bear markets. And then take a very quick rip lower and then slowly start to recover, give everybody some help or some hope, and then dash it all to hell. They actually did it. They actually sold some stock. Anyway, going back to work day for Ron, as we look at this, you're back to the support levels. You hammered it yesterday with five million shares, not doing much else here. But yeah, you had a gap higher on 7.4 million shares going back to August 27th. And that has been kind of where the support has come. You came back, tested with light volume, ran to 307.81. And of course, you're coming back to 245 yesterday, bounced a little bit out here. I would have liked to see the energy really expand off the November 17th level. But as I said, I suspect what the Fed's going to do is rip the Band-Aid off, let everybody squeal for a while, probably even things out a little bit. And then another couple of months down the line, we're going to get a little bit more. Well, we've got to raise it. Inflation is pretty high. We've got to get back to it. So there's going to be a lot of fits and starts to their program until we find some level of homeostasis. I used a big word there instead of using a small word, where they're going to enjoy the way the market is. But I think at some level, there is people arguing that the Fed is trying to figure out how the market's going to react with no stimulus for the latest variant, Omicron Perseus 6, if you're a fan of Futurama. But that's it. So we got that. We got that. Okay. Yep. People in the den talk about the polar plunge, because they tend to get some selling here in this hour sometimes. And certainly we've got it now down 61 points on the S&P cash. NASDAQ's off 390, Russell 2000's off pretty much 40 points. Okay. Again, well, you got a little bit of a ray of hope with the way the TLTs acting and not blowing up into this deluge of selling. But I don't think it's going to matter by tomorrow and next couple of days. People are going to start looking about going into the weekend. And we're probably going to see that selling tomorrow. Options expiration really starts late this year or this month. The first Friday of the month is, of course, this week. So you're going to go to the 21st. So we've got two weeks and two days of trading before we go into options expiration. I don't think that options are really going to tell us a lot and probably until on Friday of this week. I really like it when they get to Delta Neutral Day. That tells us a lot more. But right now they're kind of all over the place. And like I said, by generally, I think now that we've had some downside, if we get people to really start shorting the markets in excess, then we can get a bounce. If they continue to see people for most stocks not do much of anything, we could see a lot more. Anyway, keep a close eye. The most important ticker on your screen should be the TLT as a malgama of the 10 and 20 year. Question about dust. Does this change everything from Alan? Well, you certainly have kind of a little bit of a turnaround out here. But no, as I've said over the last few years, if we're going to get a downturn, everything tends to go down for the first couple of weeks. And I can say that today is kind of at least a one day or two day event. Don't be surprised to see gold week now. Will it continue to outperform? Certainly, if the inflation continues to be high and the raising rates, probably not a bad combination to be in is gold. But you know what, it's in the scheme of things, not a big deal. I think what you would like to see, actually, is maybe another week or so of this thing kind of playing around. And then the move higher, if the market's going to continue to move lower, you're probably going to see two weeks of indeterminate action in gold. And then it will take off like a Johnny Rippa. I guess I'm going to do my Australian accent. Yeah, Rippa. Not exactly sure what that meant, but everybody kept saying it when I was over there. Question about the XLE. We had a big spike in Brent today that kind of did it for the XLE. It is not holding the previous high so far, 59.41 of October 26. Today, what are we at now? 59.59. So you're close, but you're not. No cigar. You want to watch how that one closes today. He had plenty of volume. You're just not holding the high. Did I already do CRM? No, I did not. See anything else in here? OK, CRM has got downgraded today. They're not looking for anything. The target price was $250 or $260 or something. So basically saying that things were just going to get worse in the downgrade. I don't know how much stock I put on that. The big problem I have is the same problem that LinkedIn had. We'll talk about that when we wrap up the show. Another excellent addition. Last two minutes. Two minute warning. Excellent. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure. But you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. 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I don't have enough time to get to all of it. We'll do that tomorrow, Zach. Email me again just in case I forget, but I will star her email. You have a question on Salesforce 20891. The problem I have with Salesforce is it is trying to compete without the kind of economies to scale that Amazon, Microsoft and Google have, and that is continued to be problematic for Salesforce. It's just so much cheaper to get whatever you've got if you're a big user. We talked a bit yesterday about containerizing things. They're not really the kind of containerizing folks, and being kind of the odd man out made the money for a little while, I think that's becoming problematic for them now. To question Avago, AV, G.O., how far could this pull back? I think just not having a real problem, David, it could come back to 600 bucks and still be in an uptrend. This company is always worried me. This is like a lot of other companies that continue to just buy other companies. You'd never know what the books are really saying, but I would say that it's not going to instantly go there, but I wouldn't want to be long this thing again until it tested $600 with lighter volume, so I'd be a fan of that. Zach will talk about gaps tomorrow. We do have a lot of gaps in the stocks the last couple of days. I generally talk about three gaps. If you get two, you've got an 8% chance of getting the third gap that's fairly long. No one can. Not when you have to. That will be more important than today, and we'll see you tomorrow. Same bat channel, same bat time.