 Hello, and welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday, the 17th of March, and this week's weekly market update. Now, the last week or so I think has been typified by the fact that we've seen new record highs in the German Decks, new multi-year highs in not only the Euro stocks 50 but also French, Italian and Spanish markets, but also by a slight slowing down in UK markets, namely the FTSE 100, which has drifted lower off its all-time highs of earlier this year, and the S&P 500. Now, the big question I think really surrounds what could well happen later this week. The main focus of this video is really going to be about tomorrow's FOMC meeting, but also I think we'll have a quick look at the Euro against the pound and the Euro against the dollar because I think when we actually look at all of the factors that are driving equity markets at the moment, the weak Euro, the strong dollar and the strong pound, we could see sentiment start to shift over the next 24 hours, particularly I think if the FOMC springs a surprise because I think what we've seen over the past few months has been the US dollar index rising very, very rapidly over a short space of time. In the last seven to eight months, it's up 25% against a basket of currency. Since 2012, it's up 40%. So that suggests to me that all this speculation that the Fed will drop patients from its forward guidance could well be slightly overestimated. That's not to say that they won't, but I think that in itself carries risks unless they're particularly dovish in terms of their outlook going forward because I don't think anyone disputes the fact that the labor market growth that we've seen over the past few months has been very, very good. But that does appear to be the outlier, retail sales are weak, inflation is weak, wages growth is weak, and a lot of the economic data that we've seen in the past two weeks has also been weak. So you have to ask yourself, in the context of all of that, will the Fed signal a potential rate rise in the next three to six months at a time when pretty much every other central bank around the world is expressing significant concerns about disinflation. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, outlined his concerns last week. And I think that's also helped undermine the pound as well after it also posted significant peaks in its trade weighted index as well. So in the context of all of that narrative and the fact that we've got the UK budget tomorrow, not as well as the Bank of England minutes and average earnings data out of the UK, we're going to have a look at the UK 100, the FTSE 100, we're going to look at the S&P 500, and also going to look at Euro dollar and Euro sterling and the potential, and it's only your potential, but a potential for a rebound in the euro, which at current levels does look a little bit oversold and does look a little bit, the short euro long dollar does look a little bit of a crowded trade. So let's make a start with the S&P 500. Now, as can be seen from the four hour chart in front of you, we've tracked lower from the all time highs that we saw at the end of February, and we found a little bit of support around about 2040, you know, a potential double bottom around there. And at the moment, we're currently finding a little bit of resistance just below those previous lows at the beginning of March, and that peak in the second week in March at around about 2084, 2085. So I think if we're going to retest the highs that we saw earlier this year, we need to navigate our way back above that resistance level that I've highlighted with those two horizontal lines between 2085 and 2090. So I think tomorrow's FOMC meeting could be very significant in that regard. If it's in any way dovish, that could well be supportive for stocks overall. It could weaken the dollar and push euro dollar higher. And also I think prompt a little bit of a rebound not only in the S&P, but also in the FTSE 100. And if we move on to the FTSE 100 with this again four hour chart here, we've got a similar sort of scenario playing out. We've got the all-time highs at the beginning of March once again. Potential double top there, we tracked lower and broke lower from that double top through the support at 6860. And now we're looking to rebound and retest those previous support levels, which should now act as resistance. I think as long as we stay below 6860, the risk is we then come back down. If on the other hand we track above 6860, then there's certainly potential for us to retest the highs that we saw earlier this year. As with all of these indexes, it's really about levels, previous highs and previous lows and how you react around those highs and lows. So we've talked about the euro and the fact that it's very overextended on the downside doesn't necessarily mean that we can't see further losses. But I think there is some early evidence that maybe we could be in line for a bit of a short squeeze. Now it's not so noticeable on this euro-dollar chart because at the moment we're currently we're currently holding above 10450, but we're currently also holding below 10680. What I would like to see for a significant rebound in euro-dollar is a move above that horizontal support and resistance line that I've drawn in around about the highs that we saw in the middle of last week around about 10685, 107. If we break through that level then there's certainly potential to actually retest the trend line from the December highs which comes in all the way up near 110. Now we're an awful long way away from that level right now. So I don't think there's any prospect of that happening at the moment while we remain below 10680, 107 but nevertheless we do need to be nimble and we do need to be prepared for it because if you look at the client sentiment on euro-dollar and euro-stirling it is very very tilted to the short side. We'll finish up with euro-stirling and as we can see in stark contrast to euro-dollar we've had much more of a rebound in euro-stirling and I think a large part of that is obviously down to the fact that sterling has weakened a little bit more than the US dollar over the past week or so largely I think because of the dovish comments from Mark Carney last week. Now we do have some economic data out tomorrow. Average earnings is what I'm particularly looking at and I'll be looking at for some significant signs of an increase in wage growth because that actually could help support sterling in the short to medium term but we have broken below a key support level on the cable on 4830. We need to get back above that to stabilise in the short to medium term or we run the risk of tracking lower. So that concludes today's weekly market update. I do have one thing to add Colin Szynski in Toronto and myself will be hosting a webinar at 3pm tomorrow where we'll go over the nuts and bolts of the UK budget and any potential effects that they that could have on the pound as well as a host of other different markets as we hate as we lead in to obviously tomorrow's FOMC rate meeting. So if you want to listen to that webinar just basically click on the link down here and I look forward to talking to you then.