 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN 8.30 AM Wednesday morning. It's Fed Day. We get a Fed decision. 2 PM Eastern time. It's earnings day as well. Volatility in the S&Ps right now, zooming things in, jumping to an even five minute chart. You see the acceleration. First in the last five minutes, peaking above yesterday's opening high. The S&Ps peaking as high as 29.18, currently trading 29.10 on that number. We were as low as about 28.80 as of just 8 AM. So you're talking about a solid 40 S&P points, check out that acceleration in the last hour. We'll see what happens. Jumping back to the other charts. We'll start things off with the commodities. How about crude oil climbing from yesterday, excuse me. Last night, yes, almost, nope, this is going to be yesterday, yes, early yesterday morning. We hit a price of $10.62, we've been rising since that level, almost $4 crude, finding a bid yet again, 14.54. Goal contract, it's 17.21. We got the NASDAQ 100 catching a bid with the rest of the market. You can see though the NASDAQ 100, not above where we were early yesterday morning. When you compare that with the S&Ps, we just eclipsed that level, which was about 29.13, and looking at the Dow, we rose above that level as well, 24,431. So the NASDAQ, lagging behind a bid, I mean that level in the NASDAQ, you're talking about a solid 80 points almost above where we're at right now in the NASDAQ 100. There's your Dow 30, 24,444, and the S&Ps as we covered 29.13. In terms of what else we have happening going on in the market, jumping over to some of the equities with moves, and I'm just pulling up the story as we get into it, but how about Google last night on their numbers, GOOG, Alphabet, check out that acceleration. So the slowdown, we'll get into the numbers later in the show, but the slowdown, not as much as the market feared in terms of their advertising and so forth. So you have the stock closing at about $1233, and we're $108 above that price level right now with an hour to go, $1342 in the price of Google. Some of the other fang stocks as we jump around before we get into earnings this morning coming up, Microsoft shares up a bit, $173.46, Amazon shares up to about $23.55, it looks like Apple shares up to $282.70 right now. Jumping back to other equities, with earnings this morning, how about Boeing posting a quarterly loss of $641 million, burns through $4.3 billion in cash. So Boeing of course, dealing with woes on two fronts in terms of their own misdeeds with the $737 max, and then of course the complete shutdown of air travel. Squirtle loss $641 million, burn through $4.3 billion, EPS a loss of $1.70, revenue still almost $17 billion for 90 days, $16.91 billion. Boeing had about 160,000 employees at the end of last year. Before the market opened today, the company said it's playing to reduce production of some aircraft, including the 787 Dreamlider to cut payroll by about 10% through voluntary measures, involuntary layoffs as necessary. And there is some action on the US first quarter GDP. So gross domestic product expected to contract 3.5% in the first quarter, actually shrinking 4.8%. You think Jerome Powell is going to get any questions about the GDP and about the economy coming up later today? There's your S&P, and there's your volatility around that number, we've given up 15 points now since that spike high that we had in about the last 15 minutes. What else we have happening? GE says their first quarter revenue declined 8%, expects this quarter to be worse because the pandemic, total revenue, $20.52 billion represents a year-over-year decline of 8%, adjusted per share basis, company earned $0.05, the second quarter will be the first full quarter with pressure from COVID-19, and GE expects its financial results will decline sequentially. GE, on that front, there's your action on that news from $7 almost to $6.47. You see the earnings and you see the conference call beginning just at about 8 AM, looks to be hanging out right at about $6.47 right now, down almost 40 pennies from where we were yesterday. GE, longer term timeframe on GE, I mean ouch, even, you know, we were at $13.39 before this pain began. We dipped under 6, and we're just hanging right at these lows, similar action to where we were in this market in December of 2018. Yum brand, Taco Bell's owner, same store sales dropped 7% in the first three months of the year. Yum reported first quarter adjusted earnings per share, $0.64, revenue $1.26 billion. They own KFC, they own Taco Bell, the KFC owner said its overall same store sales shrank 7% during the first three months of the year. So maybe this is our volatility, why not jump into it? Because that was quite a little spike. And was it chilly, Ed? We'll get into that, I guess. But back to Yum Brands, earnings per share, $0.64, revenue $1.26 billion, first quarter net income $83 million, down from $262 million a year earlier. The company's minority stake in Grubhub trimmed earnings per share by $0.06, excluding re-franchising gains, cost of acquiring, Habit, Burger, Grill and other items, Yum earned $0.64 per share, net sales rising 1%, Wall Street was looking for $0.65 on revenue of $0.1.2. What are they, are they Yum? I think they might be Yum Brands. Let's zoom it in because they're trading a little bit lower this morning. Here's your volatility right now, your bid ask $87.50 by $88.50 closed at $88.27 on Yum. Other stocks out there, ADP, the payroll processing company, came in three cents a share ahead of estimates with quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share, revenue beat forecast as well. However the company lowered its earnings and revenue outlook for the year. Payroll company, always a good indication of the economy, ADP closed yesterday at $4301. You have an extremely wide bid ask, so no real action on that, but last print at $142.14. Garmin, the maker of the GPS devices, beat estimates by $0.07 a share, quarterly profit of $0.91 a share, revenue above projection as well. The company said it had strong momentum during the quarter ahead of the coronavirus outbreak, but it is withdrawing 2020 guidance, should be no surprise there. Garmin, what's everyone need their GPS for? Well, they're staying at home, but I guess they do. Up a bit, bid ask $85.30 by $86.25, you're trading at about $83.40 right now. Jumping around to other action in the market, before we get back to different equities, the VIX this morning, trading a bit lower as the market is 37 points higher in the S&Ps. The VIX trading at $32.13, the low yesterday on the open, $30.54, as we mentioned, you draw things back to the rise and the fall. The VIX, I mean, weren't levels that we saw, that was late February here, that kind of range on the first acceleration down in the market. You had a low around February 28th in the market. That's when the VIX had spiked. You thought order was restored, pretty low, pretty remarkable that we made it actually back down below 25 in the VIX. After all of this had started, like we had seen a Max Payne situation already, and then from 25 on March 3rd up to 85 on March 18th. But it's April 29th, and we're back at 32. Stay tuned folks, we'll be going over other earnings we have on action for Wednesday with Sven Day as well. Stay tuned, we'll be right back. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. Welcome back folks. S&P is positive by 38 right now. The Dow positive by 340. You get NASDAQ positive by 123. Oil contract up $2.09 pennies at 1443. Oil looks to have somewhat found a bid since the collapse early, early yesterday morning. Gold trading at 1720 right now, silver up 17 pennies at 1550. Jumping back to equities, the first quarter GDP numbers. So we talked about GDP shrinking almost 5%, the 3.5% decline was what was expected. Economists were looking for 3.5. This marked the first negative GDP reading since the 1.1% decline in the first quarter of 2014 and the lowest level since the 8.4% plunge in Q4 of 2008 during the worst of the financial crisis. Most economists see the U.S. in recession already even though the technical definition is generally two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The fourth quarter of 2019, we saw a rise of 2.1%, yeah, a lot different about this time in terms of the technical definition, two consecutive quarters. But when you have weekly jobless claims coming in at 6 million and the previous record being somewhere around 600,000, I imagine that you don't need to wait almost six months in terms of two consecutive quarters to see that 20 plus million people unemployed, that's gonna have an effect for sure. Google numbers, so we talked about their stock rising, getting into the actual numbers that they put up, $987 per share, revenue $41.16 billion, cloud revenue $2.78, YouTube advertising revenue $4.04 billion, and traffic acquisition cost $7.45. So analysts surveyed had expected $1033 in adjusted earnings per share with $40.29 billion in revenue, right? They came in at 987, the market was looking for $1033, so they missed on the earnings number, but they were only looking for $40.29 billion in revenue, and they took in $41.16. That is quite a number to beat by almost a billion dollars during a pandemic. Analysts were looking for a cost of $7.51 billion in traffic acquisition, they came in under that number. However, comparing alphabets actual results with estimates isn't straightforward given the difficulty of predicting the impact of the coronavirus, yeah, I would expect so. YouTube ad revenue grew 33% from last year, however she noted the brand advertising saw a steep drop off in March while other forms of advertising did not. So Google has brand advertising, and then they have advertising that is determined in terms of actual marketing of specific call to action events, right? Like transitioning from a call to action versus just something like Pepsi Cola advertising their brand for brand awareness. You saw the brand awareness really pull back, but you saw people capitalizing maybe on the amount of interactions online. And when it came to call to actions, maybe it's home exercise equipment is advertising with a call to action, right? They're not advertising with brand awareness. They're advertising for you to buy a unit right now. Maybe it's some type of food item, a weekly sign up for food delivery, whether it's new pajamas that you're spending at home, comfy clothes, jeans, shirts, office equipment, desks, lamps, home repairs, all of that stuff. Nonetheless, Google's total advertising revenue rose to 33.76 billion from 30.59 billion the prior year. There's your total ad revenue, Q1 2020, 33.8, you see the huge run. I imagine this having to do maybe with holiday sales, you get that spike every fourth quarter, right? There's your spike here, here and here. Annual ad revenue growth declining in terms of the acceleration to positive territory, but still that's above 10% folks on billions and billions of dollars. So checking back on the Google shares, some great numbers there for revenue and really surprising the market. The expected move on Google yesterday, about $62, I believe, representing, you're talking about about a 5% move on Google was priced into that for options. The Analyze tab on the Thinkorswim platform gives you that one-day expected move. It was about $62 when we talked to Kevin Hanks yesterday at 10 a.m. in the morning. But guess what? How about blowing right past that to an even 100 at 1333? Almost a 10% move, $123 would be 10%, so you're looking at about 8% move on Google shares this morning ahead of the open. Other action, Hasbro. They expect the virus to hit second quarter earnings, but will be prepared for holiday season. Hasbro reported first quarter earnings Wednesday, telling investors that it has sold a financial footing, excuse me. Telling investors that it has a solid financial footing during the coronavirus pandemic, the toy maker's cutting cost as it prepares to meet the seasonal demand that comes in the second half of the year, demand for family gains has spiked. There's one thing, during the quarter and into April, everyone having their game night, you can almost have game night any night, Hasbro, but check out that drop off from almost $79 yesterday, you had a little bit of a steep sell off to end the day. So you ended actually at $77.86, but we were above $80 at the beginning of yesterday and you're gonna open somewhere between $74 and $75, bid at $74 by $75 right now for Hasbro. Other news items this morning, weekly mortgage applications to buy a home make a strong recovery as rates hit a new record low. The average contract interest rate for 30 year fixed rate mortgages decreased to 3.43% from 3.45 last week. That boosted mortgage demand from home buyers by 12% signaling a potential turn in buyer confidence. Maybe one thing people have time to do is to check out some houses online while they're at home. If they were gonna be a potential buyer, they have money available. That market still open folks, open for business with mortgage rates at that low, low level and maybe this is an opportunity for some mortgage applications to buy a home rose last week, but refinanced demand fell causing total application volume to decline by 3.3% over the week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association Seasonally Adjusted Index. Yeah, so mortgage demand for home buyers jumped 12%. Volume it was still 20% lower than the same week one year ago, real estate firms and listing websites have been reporting more buyer demand anecdotally over the past two weeks and some home builders say they are also seeing buyers come back. Wasn't a DHI that just reported their earnings? Yeah, they did check out that run. DHI last week was at about 39, you're trading at 47, those home builders with interest rates where they are seem to be doing just fine. Other stocks making moves this morning, where were we? So GE we talked about, but they're gonna see the first quarter revenue decline 8%. They expect the quarter to be the worst because the pandemic and they're gonna be laying off the real key here that I wanna emphasize again, about 10% of their workforce I believe as we get down. So the company announced earlier this month it was withdrawing its 2020 forecast company also said it's cash and cash equivalent holdings top more than 47 billion. That is quite a number along with a revolving debt facility of 15 billion to ride out the virus induced downturn. Now I believe it was about $4 billion that they burned through, I'm not finding it. But nonetheless, GE will jump over as we wrap up this segment from $7 getting a little bit of a pop though, that's why they came back on my radar even this morning. You're the conference call beginning at eight o'clock and whatever's going on in that conference call seems to be going pretty well as you're getting a little bit of a bid in GE up to 661. Stay tuned folks. I'll be coming back from the program and don't forget, Tom O'Brien, a timing the trade webinar all day tomorrow, $395 you get his book, his newsletter, check it out on the front page at tfnn.com. That starts tomorrow at 9 a.m. Go sign up and get ready for it. I'm sorry, you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trade that we tigers and tigers share. 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You'll get a physical copy of Tom's bestselling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system. That will be mailed to you and you'll be in there tomorrow from 9 a.m. till 4 p.m. to three hour segments. As you'll be in there 9 to noon, a lunch break and then one to four quality volume, ABCs, Fibonacci, swing points, cause and effect, confluence, the whole deal in there for six hours with Tom. Check it out on the front page of TFNN.com before it begins tomorrow. Sign up now. Other stocks out there with action. You had Starbucks earnings last night. Shares falling after the coffee chain once. US cafe closures to deal hefty blow to earnings. Starbucks said Tuesday, fiscal second quarter, global same-store sales fell 10%. That is quite a number, folks. When you talk about the business they're doing, but check out the little bit of a rebound. Recently in the last about half hour, you're back up to $78.89. We had forward earnings. I'm just going to fly through it here down a bit to $5.24 from $5.38. Spotify with good numbers as they're gaining subscribers in the paying and nonpaying portion from $140 up to about $153 this morning. And we get two giants after the bell tonight. Tesla reports after the bell as we inch towards almost $800. And Microsoft after the bell as well. Microsoft shares from $169.81 yesterday up to $173.74. You see a little bit of volatility. Maybe that had to do with Google crushing it out of the park last night. If Google's doing well, maybe the cloud and the whole business. And while we finish it up, let's jump back to that SMPs. Because we're catching quite a little bit here. As I mentioned, from 8 a.m., from $28.81, we're now approaching the highs we made during the 830 bar of $29.18. SMPs up 1.7%. We get the NASDAQ up 1.7% as well. The Dow up 433 points, 1.8%. And the Russell continuing the run up 2.6%. Check out that charge higher in the Russell. Stay tuned folks. Larry Pezzavento live at 9. I'll be back at 10 o'clock with Tom live programming all Wednesday. It's Fed Day, 2 p.m. announcement. Stay tuned folks. We'll be right back.