 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we are going to discuss about the North Korean missile programs as the tension between North Korea and America grows. To discuss the issue we have with us, Deira Gunandan, who is a defense analyst and also member of the Delhi Science Forum. Welcome to NewsClick, Raghu. So, Raghu, how big threat do the North Korean missiles pose for the United States, at least if not the mainland, but its bases, and is Hawaii within the range of its missiles? I think first we have to distinguish between the threat directly to the United States and the threat that the North Korean nuclear and missile program poses to its immediate neighborhood, particularly to South Korea and Japan. Because whether or not the US is directly attacked, if South Korea is attacked or if Japan is attacked, the United States automatically comes into the picture. And we are then looking at the possibility of a widening of the conflict inside the region in the Korean Peninsula and in Japan, which then stands the risk of sucking in the United States on the one hand and China on the other. And in fact, the reason why China is particularly perturbed at this crisis is because of this. Because whether or not the United States is attacked, China is going to get sucked into this conflict if there is a problem in South Korea or in Japan. Having said that, North Korea has its perhaps best tested missile. Are its relatively short range missiles which have about a 1000 kilometer range? These are called Rodong or Nodong missiles. And at 1000 kilometers range, they can virtually cover all of South Korea and some parts of Japan. In fact, during a recent test, one of the missiles landed not inside Japanese territory, but inside the Japanese economic zone waters. About 200 miles kilometers to the west of Japan, near the United States military base in northern Japan. It is called Misawa. So, the potential of this shorter range missile of causing havoc in South Korea and of reaching parts of Japan is strong enough to cause a regional conflagration and doing it. Okinawa is much further away. And in order to reach Okinawa, the North Koreans do have a missile. They have what is called the Hoasong 10 missiles, also often called the Musudan missile. There have been a few tests. But none of these tests have been particularly convincing. And these missiles are therefore not considered very reliable threats as of today. They could have ranges up to about 4000 kilometers and are therefore, maybe they can reach Guam if stretched a bit. Hawaii is way out of range. And so is the continental United States for which Korea would have to rely on its ICBMs, the much longer range missiles. So far, North Korea has tested one or two technology demonstrator versions of the Taipodong 1 and 2 series of missiles. The actual closer tests are perhaps the satellite launch North Korea has done, which seems to have been successful. And it is believed that this rocket meant for satellite launching can also then be modified for developing a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile. But most experts believe this is at least five to six years away from what we are looking now. So in answer to your question, the United States directly perhaps does not face a threat maybe for the next six years or seven years. So Raghuja pointed out that it will take five to six more years for them to develop this long-range missiles. What are the technical problems that their program is currently facing? If you look at the intercontinental ballistic missile, as I said, North Korea seems still to be about six or seven years away from possessing the rocket technologies required. You require a multi-stage rocket to reach the necessary altitude above the earth and be able to come back to a distance of about 10 to 11,000 kilometers away from the launch site. If you want an effective missile system, then you also want it to be relatively concealed. If the country you are targeting, let us say the United States can easily see where it is being launched from, they could attack the site. So countries which are serious about their missile programs would have silos which are very deep underground or have mobile launches which you can cart quickly on the back of a truck from one place to another. That gives you what is called a second strike capability. So even if one site is struck, you can attack from another site. North Korea, it is not known whether it has developed any of these or not. Apart from what is yet not known whether it has the intercontinental missiles, they have apparently shown these ICBMs during recent military displays in Pyongyang. But most experts believe these are dummies or mockups and that North Korea is still, as I said, six to seven years away from a long-range rocket. Then the question is of the warhead itself. Now North Korea has tested missiles a number of times and of late we have seen very frequent such tests. But nuclear tests have been, explosive tests have been few and far between and it is not yet known whether North Korea has tested large bombs or whether it has tested miniaturized warheads. And you do require miniaturized warheads if we are talking long-range missiles because the smaller the warheads are, the longer the range of the rocket that you can carry and obviously the greater the impact that the weapon will have once it strikes. All the weapons tests that North Korea has conducted so far, none of them seem to have exceeded about 20 kilotons of yield, which is about one and a half times the size of the Hiroshima bomb. Now nobody in a serious mind will use a long-range ICBM for a 20 kiloton yield. Normally, most countries with intercontinental ballistic missiles have yields tens or maybe even hundreds of times greater than this in a megaton type of yield. North Korea is not known to have a nuclear weapon of that yield. Secondly, we do not know at all whether North Korea has miniaturized its warhead sufficiently to make for an effective ICBM. And third, in terms of the delivery system, the warhead will be sitting on top of the rocket, which will carry it, then it must go to altitude, then re-enter the earth's atmosphere where friction is huge. It will cause temperature to go to several thousand degrees celsius. So, you need a shield to protect the spacecraft or in this case warhead as it comes through the atmosphere and it is not known at all whether North Korea has developed the re-entry systems. The designs that they draw is from 1970s. It is a 1970 Soviet design. So, what do you have to say about that? And also if you look at when we talk about the neighboring countries and also if you look at India, Iran, which are much bigger economies if we compare to them, so at what place are we at the present context? The very early development of North Korean missiles were Soviet origin designs, SCUD type missiles and variations of the SCUDs, which we all know from recent development in the Middle East. A lot of countries have got these rather crude SCUD type missiles. But then now you have got variations of the SCUDs, which are more sophisticated and North Korea by now has moved away from those earlier Soviet era designs and in fact also from the earlier Chinese designs which they also received. And North Korea has for long used its missile development and production technologies as a means of technology transferred to other countries, as a means to either earn foreign currency or to get components for nuclear weapons technology. It is well known for example that North Korea supplied its Rodong short range missiles that we have been talking about to Pakistan in exchange for Pakistani expertise and technology in uranium enrichment and in centrifuge designs, which is how North Korea started its work in uranium enrichment for their weapons production program. This has been confessed to by the former and late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, by former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, by former President Parvez Musharraf and of course by AQ Khan himself. And these missiles which North Korea gave to Japan were named by Pakistan as the Ghori missiles. Very similar experience was there when North Korea exported its missiles in fairly large numbers in the several hundreds to Iran in exchange perhaps for hard currency deals, which Iran named as Shahab 1 and Shahab 2 missiles. Then Iran on its own further upgraded these missiles for a longer range of about 1,500 or 1,600 kilometers, which Iran called the Gadar missiles. However, I would say that at least over the last 15 years, it's doubtful whether North Korea has any ongoing collaboration with any other country with China, with Iran, with Pakistan, with anybody regarding actual ongoing collaboration for missile development or missile technology. What of course North Korea does like most other countries engaged in weapons or missile development do is to procure materials and components from the international gray market, which is wide open in western Europe, in eastern Europe, in Russia, and also in Japan and China from which components and materials are procured by North Korea. So, I would say in terms of the economy, even though the North Korea has a more narrow industrial base in terms of capability than a country like India is less strong economically than India or Iran, North Korea is prepared to put in a greater proportion of its resources into its weapons and missile program than perhaps a country like India is prepared to do and also is prepared to devote a much larger part of its scientific and technological manpower, put them into the missile and nuclear program, whatever its cost may be, even if they are not deployed elsewhere in the North Korean economy. Thank you for watching NewsClick.