 Let's get over to our MMS to Tim or as we do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks You can reach Tim every trading day at ord ord dash oracle comm. That's or dash oracle comm Tim ord What's going on? Well, I said you over five charts. Did you get them? I sure did man? Of course. Yeah All right, it's them. Yeah, this is starting to be interesting now. What's going on here? We'll do the chart number one We'll kind of look at look at the bigger time frames and we'll kind of hone it down. Okay to the smaller probably time frames But you know chart one this is a weekly SPY is going to back to I don't know 2017 and I marked the times when the In the pink areas there. Yes, or red lines Whatever those times when the six three-day average of the trend get one or lower And each and on this chart goes back, you know Look to down school. What about seven years or whatever six years? Yes And each each time it's got down to one or lower on the six three-day average the mark was nearing a high and So matter of fact last January 2022 It got I marked it there in and right a light pink and it picked up that high actually mark was kind of going down Then trend was not going up and that was a really a very sign. So okay Anyhow Currently we're at one and anything one or below was usually on your midterm time scale This is a weekly chart. We could be heading for trouble. I mean we will because market still can go up but It's a warning sign. That's all it is right cell signal here just a warning sign so Now if we can we flip to a chart to okay, oh, yeah, and And this is the bottom window is the SPX VIX ratio There's no five week moving average and it's on a weekly time frame also so I'm still in the weekly time frame kind of looking what the market's doing and the SPX VIX ratio if you notice all those tops going back to 2018 when the S&P made a higher high and the SP SPX VIX ratio made a lower high that's a divergence And that's something to warn that you're probably going into some sort of a high and The important thing I want to point out here If you notice the market on a weekly time frame really hasn't changed like over the last month I mean we're off a little bit from the highs but not much, but if you look at the SPX VIX ratio Currently which is in light blue there is in red. We really took a big dive on that ratio right, so That's really a warning sign last time we did something like that came in at the 2022 high and also back at the 2022 high and also back at that 2022 high or 20 high okay both the that ratio to so to me This is a really a kind of a warning So July actually if you do seasonally work July 27th all the way to October I think Seventh or 27th is the weakest period of a year senior senior Seasonally wise and so we're not quite there yet part seasonally goes, but we're starting to get warning signs On the fixed three-day average of the trend and now the SPX VIX ratio is also Showing possibly the virgins which is pretty cool because we're only five ten. We're only 16 trading days away from that Date right rapes it. Yep. So what's it? What's important here now? I'm thinking the mark still gonna hit another new higher high. Okay, probably this month. Yeah I'll show you why on the next chart. Okay, but if we go up and hit another higher high In the in the coming weeks I think probably could happen next week and this SPX VIX ratio makes a lower high Right and that to me is the time to really look seriously for a worthwhile high Yeah, and so The next week maybe two weeks will tell the story and if you flip to the next chart so now we're Now we're down to the days here But if you notice going into this Monday, we were five days up in a row I keep track of those days. Yes five days in a row market We'll make a higher high within five days eight five percent of the time last time we had something like this We're up six days in a row going into Mid-June and I was saying on your show that we should make a higher high within five days Well, I never made a higher high in five days, but it did make a higher high, you know, like about ten days So don't know if this eight five percent chance will make a higher high within the next five days in other words week from Monday Week from this Monday, which would be next Monday will make a higher. I don't know for sure that's happened But probably you got really an 85% chance. We'll make a higher higher high probably within them a few days If you notice today, we went back and tested the gap area that we had the Monday be last Friday the market had a big day up and Created a gap. We're testing that gap when I sent this chart to you the trend at the time was 2.11 1028 down to creating so that was early this morning But the important thing here is is how the volume the volume to close that gap and For the market to continue lower has to be equal volume compared with the gap was with a gap Had like close to over a hundred million shares. We're not even coming close to that So probably if you test the gap on at least 10% latter volume that gap's going to have to support Right also have ticks and trend here at least in the morning I haven't checked them here in the last couple hours, but most likely we'll have a high trend reading today I also probably a high tech just in that gap has support and with the five days going higher and Predicting the market will be higher within a week. Maybe a week and a half There's a good chance. We're probably going to hit a higher high with fine gaps for we got pangs and ticks and trend So there's quite a bit of evidence that You know, we're gonna at least touch a new high probably next week so that we kind of Important so going back to the chart number two Go back there so that's the reason why I think we're going to hit another higher high Okay, chat to Tim is the yeah one second Okay chart to yep Going back to that so if we hit a higher high on the SMP that ratio on the bottom does not hit a higher high In other words, it makes a lower high NASA diverges on the weekly time frame and the way time frame Suggest, you know, we could have a some sort of a high that could last week You know because you're dealing with the weekly time frame, right? That's all gonna happen, but yeah, and you know that's it that the trend reading, you know I mean we hit we hit 209 What 209 we hit it 10 o'clock and then we hit 207 you know 20 minutes later stay right there folks Tim and I are coming right back Welcome back folks. Tom and Brian Tim will we do appreciate your growl and a problem when it's out here We have the now industrial's down 356. Nasdaq's have 113 SMPs are off 37. You know Tim It'd be pretty cool. You know, we have the downdraft today, right? It comes into the gap and then you reach a higher high Because what would end up happening is that the next downdraft the whole world will think okay This is gonna get shaken off too, right? And and that's the one that does is probably right if we get in closer to a high. Yeah, right. Yeah, so, you know I'm looking at the trend right now is putting the we're talking here I got a 1.49 trend and at 284 down tick reading So if we close there, you know, we've got quite a bit of information that you're hitting sport And if you look you could you compare the volume to that gap of last Friday's up Yes, we're testing that gap on that on you know a heck of a lot lighter volume is based on over yet But we're not gonna reach the volume we had last Friday where the gap occurred, right? So there's information plus there's five days up going into last Friday. Yes And that predicts mark will be higher, you know, 85% of the time with him playing a pipe for probably next week sometime right, so there's quite a bit of information that you're probably hitting sport right here right now and And we'll probably see a rally new highs and you know, I may see all the hoop rock But the key will be on that chart number two On the SPX VIX ratio on the weekly time frames. Okay, so to make a higher high in that ratio makes a lower high Just like in the past. Yeah You know, you'll have a divergence and you'll have some sort of a correction. How big the correction will be. I don't know I mean I think the worst-case scenario if you draw a trend line right around that 120 on the SPY That's pretty that's pretty good support in that range because that's proxen where all the previous highs were So to me that's about the worst-case scenario than I think this year. What was the number again on the spy? Right around 120 area if you yeah, it's a little bit less by 117 Oh, yeah, you're talking about the ratio though, right? Well, I'm sorry for 20 for 20 You know, you have people people already just jumped out windows Tim You know probably 474 18 yeah You got a lot yeah, let me put that up cool man. Okay. Yeah, and so anyhow, that's That's good to me. That's the worst-case scenario and then we'll get but you know, the market will Beat itself up between now and you know, it sees now you know, this could run into October, you know mid-October Maybe September, I don't know Well, you know, it's so cool man thing is just like you know last time, you know Once you get near lows, you know panic is happening the more panic you get the better it is for the market Yes, and it's like fuel. Yes Whatever that correction be once you start seeing where the panic is On the you know the trend and the ticks and you know and whatever That's where sports coming in at and so we have a lot of panic around that 117 to one or excuses 417 to 420 area yeah And probably what you have panic in a certain area of that panic will Reaffirm or re firm or a form again at that level. So I'm thinking 420 is yes pretty good We did the workshop No, I know when you did the workshop That's exactly you explain it how many times it came down to that level was so cool about what you do Tim is that you know Yeah, we have that number, but then you have the verifications on the ratios also, you know to bring your probability up that okay You know here we go. We're coming into a low again and on the opposite side. It's just like this Is that okay, you know, we know how deviant the market is meaning that you know Just like I said you come down here then all of a sudden, you know You go up you take it out and then all of a sudden you get down and the whole world's as I said It's just gonna say oh no no no We're gonna just keep going when that will be the you know the other side of it. So pretty cool, right? Yeah, yeah So we can cover if you want to go on or we have questions about these crap or these charts Or we can just go on no these are the I think he's explained is great. Okay, so I'm ready to go on which one we like Uh See we got five charge. So be chart number four. Okay Yeah, this this will make life simple here. Yeah, this this is a 50-day average of the Advanced decline for GDX advanced decline percent for GDX That says second window below the GDX chart in the bottom window is GDX up down volume with 50-day average And that's percent so in a nutshell Whenever the bottom window, which is the up down volume 50-day average up down volume advanced climate indicators gets below minus 20 The mark is that support doesn't mean it's gonna go up but we're at support and that happened every time Going back to 2010 So quite a few times there the red line show the times when that happened and back in mid-June the The 50-day average up down volume percent hit below minus minus 20 Just like the other time. So either so now we're either flip sideways or we go up So that's your choices, you know, you don't get another choice that marks going with down marks done going down so now you You go to another chart and that's chart number five and Probably should have took it back further But anyhow the bottom window is the 18-day average of the advanced decline and next higher window is the 18-day or 18-day average of the up down volume in a nutshell When both those Indicators are above minus 10 markets in an up trend when both those indicators are below minus 10 Markets in the downtrend and the uptrend identified with blue and the downtrend identified with white pink. Okay, and So right now we've been moving Both of them have to go above minus 10 to get the rally going and Yesterday or the day before we did close up minus 10 on both of them and today We're back below minus 10 on both of them Well, we're not going to keep going down because the 50-day average says we're at the bottom so we're flipping sideways. Yeah, so So either we're going to go sideways here a little bit longer Or we're going to start closing above minus 10 But along as both those indicators close above minus 10 the uptrend intact So now we would kind of bounce around that that minus 10 range and so we're not really going down We're not going up. We're kind of going sideways But once you stay above minus 10 on both indicators the uptrend will continue Which you know, it's interesting Tim because the gold market loves doing that too Man going sideways drive everyone out of their minds, right? And then all of a sudden it takes off. Yeah, right Yeah, it takes off and so I'm kind of watching to indicate you're out of kind of bullish Yes, they well didn't happen. You know now we're below 10. Well, so ironically seasonally flips bullish on On gold starting July 7th, you know, this is over like 50 years So it's like the July 7th could be July 1st all the way probably to end of July right seasonally scale, but so July 7th Historically past that number has been bullish for Gold and runs into July 27 or not July 27th, but October 27th Yeah, but starts July 7th and runs to October 20th. It's the opposite of the gold market, right? The equity market which is buried in that time frame, which is really cool Well, listen Tim, this is always a pleasure. Don't forget folks You can get Tim every trading day at odd or D dash oracle calm He's on every Thursday. It's a great newsletter. Go so go check it out. Tim You have a great one a safe one. We look forward to speaking here All right, thank you. Thank you. Stay right there You