 Good afternoon. I hope you had a pleasant lunch. My name is Marcus Nolan. It is my distinct honor to moderate this panel on Asian security The first day I heard mr. Rabinowitz Describe going to a church and hearing the preacher preach about a passage in the book of Matthew In which Jesus says the last will be first and the first shall be last. Well, we're nearly the last But I think maybe if we're not the most important. We're nearly the most important panel We have two speakers who have very tight airplane connections So I'm going to skip reading the bios because once I started reading them I realized that all of our speakers are press our prestigious former government officials or hold prestigious Academic positions and you can read the details. What I thought we would do is start in Northeast Asia because that's where the North Korean issue is most acute. We'll start with mr. Yim from South Korea followed by mr. Hosoja from Japan Mr. Ja from China then we'll move to Southeast Asia with mr. Yao Followed by Yusuf Wynandi and then mr. Narayan from India mr. Narayan Seemed a little displeased about going last but I had to remind him that according to Jesus He's got the most prestigious position on the panel So without any further ado, please in in light of our limited time, please try to keep it the roughly eight minutes Mr. Yim the floor is yours Well, thank you Marcus. I mean for the privilege to speak first. I mean well I'm the suppose I'm supposed to be the last speaker in my alphabetical order Well, it is always nice and lovely to visit Marrakesh Marrakesh But I think it's a pity and regret that I have to talk about the most serious and grave problem security problem in the world now well This issue is not new as you all know has been for 25 years for the attention of the security people of most You know concerned countries well, I was heavily involved when this issue came out Maybe in early 1990s. Well, I see some participants. I mean Well work together. I mean to resolve the issue Well these days, I mean attention has been built a very heavy in my country Not because we expect any Possible provocation by North Korea again, but because of the arrival of President Trump well Korean government I mean mounted the maximum security vigilance. I mean, you know in protection of the US president Well, as I told you I mean You know this nuclear issue of North Korea has been there for the last 20 years So I think if I Tried to go through all the phases of this issue. It will take, you know, maybe hours. So I will skip the Early part of this issue, but I will just to start from the recent development of this North Korean nuclear quagmire well global outrage at North Korea's nuclear program has grown since September of this year when Pyongyang claimed a successful test of a hydrogen bomb and Made further a threat to detonate another hydrogen bomb in the West Pacific Ocean Unprecedented exchanges of personal attacks between the US president and North Korean leader marked another escalation in the world wars. Mr. Trump calling him rocket man told the UN that he would totally destroy the North if a threatened While Kim Jong-un called the Trump a mentally deranged US daughter Well, I had to find the world daughter in the dictionary. I didn't know what it really meant I think that we now have to squarely ask the question Why did the international efforts failed to prevent North Korea from developing our Weapons of mass destruction program. What went wrong for the last almost 20 years? My answer is follows number one North Korea has invariably been cheating and it ran is on the agreements. It signed Where it promised to freeze and stop its nuclear program in return for a security guarantee and economic benefits Thus, North Korea is squarely to blame and should be held responsible North Korea experiencing devastation of the country by the massive bombing of the US during the Korean War and being isolated at the end of the Cold War North Korea set a national goal to develop a nuclear weapons program Which could guarantee its regimes survival under any circumstances That was also the supreme and standing order from Kim Il-sung North Korea's founder and later This order was enshrined in their constitution Then why did North Korea come to the negotiation table and close those past the deals to denuclearize? North Korea made three agreements, but three agreements were not implemented at all The answer is simple North Korea and North Korea needed both the weaponization of nuclear and missile capabilities and Certain benefits from outside a security guarantee economic assistance and diplomatic normalization with the Western countries North Korea believed that it could achieve both objectives at the same time Continuing the WMD program while negotiating for the necessary benefits Now North Korea officially pursues nuclear and economic development together and they declared it as in Korean Byung-jin Jung check or to track policy Secondly the US Japan and South Korea including myself were deceived by the North Korean unprecedented scam Later former Clinton officials said that they knew North Korea was cheating on the HEU program and planned to use that intelligence as Leveraged to keep the agreed framework in place and the plutonium on the lock and key Cheating is bad, but being cheated sometimes worse Having learned of the past the history the Obama administration Barely bothered to restart the disarmament talks with the North Instead it adopted a policy called strategic patience Doing nothing But under that policy they lost the time allowing North Korea to improve its mastery of nuclear and missile technology On numerous occasions Including during his presidential campaign Trump vowed that he was committed to resolving the North Korean nuclear issue He's on a Asian Trip now he will arrive in Seoul. I think on in the morning of Tuesday So we are looking at his lips Despite Trump's tough talk His choice of options may not be wide open Due to restrictions that are inherent in each of them among the potential options That have been raised. I'd like to discuss a few of them and Their ability to achieve the goal of CV ID of the North Korean program first in military option Donald Trump has said that any US military option would be Devastating for North Korea, but he added that military action isn't Washington's Preferred option to deal with North Korea's ballistic and nuclear weapons program Theoretically if North Korea fired an ICBM targeting US territory or South Korea or Japan the US would make a preemptive strike on North Korean military sites and that could lead to North Korea's massive retaliatory attack on South Korea or even a Japan This scenario of going to war with North Korea would risk the lives of millions of people across the region Regardless of how much has been said about Possible military action in reality. This war scenario is the last option to take President Moon of my country and China has openly opposed any war scenarios on the Korean Peninsula South Korea's nuclear option as North Korea is closer than ever to full-blown nuclear capability and Prospects for resolving this problem seem demon prolonged Public opinion in South Korea recently has moved the toward favoring a scenario in which South Korea also should go Nuclear the conservative political community in Korea Strongly insist that the best way to deal with North Korea nuclear provocation and threats is to arm South Korea With its own nuclear weapons or we deploy US tactical nuclear weapons Which were pulled out in the early 1990s Should South Korea take this option it would also face unbearable difficulties and strong opposition from the international community Including the US China Japan and others third sanctions plus show of strength that means extended deterrence by the US since North Korea Conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 North Korea has been under economic and financial sanctions Introduced by the UN Security Council and the international community The Trump administration recently adopted an executive order to deny North Korea's access to the international banking system These strengthen the sanctions imposed on North Korea should be effective and are quite different from the past ones Which failed to affect North Korea's already shattered economy in order to thwart North Korea's continuing provocation the US South Korea recently put on maximum military vigilance and conducted joint military drills With various US strategic resources being deployed on and around the Korean Peninsula Including three aircraft carrier strike groups It in fact since its last the test of a hydrogen bomb and firing of an ILBM in September North Korea has maintained the silence My conclusion is that a nuclear armed North Korea is not acceptable number two unless South Korea and the US is attacked military options are out of consideration continuation of stringent sanctions on North Korea plus US extended deterrence and show of strength Would be the best option to deter North Korean provocation Which I hope will lead to a CV ID resolution of this quagmire Finally should North Korea continue on this path Then the international community should be united to bring down the Kim Jong-un regime. I will stop you Thank you very much for setting the table professor Hoseoya I'm very grateful for to be included in this session with so many excellent speakers And I tonight first heart that I was included in this session to talk I was so so glad that I forgot that my flight departure here at the 625 So I have only three hours. So much more than usual. I have to brief in the beginning I like to Talk about the possibility of war and then I Present three possible scenario of the future of North Korean crisis And I thought finally I will talk a little about Japanese strategy for settling this North Korean crisis first I like to talk that a possibility of war is Much higher than before since the last nuclear explosion of North Korea in Two months before in September, and I think that many experts agree that the likely food Becomes much much higher and larger than before because of the hardening of American stance on this issue and also because of Chinese Participation to increase the pressure upon North Korea on sanctions. So that's why if I attended a conference a week before in Tokyo Ambassador research at amity for my deputy secretary of state mentioned that the likely food of war is around 25 percent and Several days before when I visited Moscow to attend several conferences. I discussed this issue with Russian experts. As you know recently North Korean head of delegation on the six-party talk and this kind of issue in minister for now fairs Visited recently Moscow to discuss some issues with Russian experts and officials and Some of Russian experts there when I talk with them told me that the likelihood of war is much higher than 25 percent And they told me that many of them told me that something like 50 percent so it would be maybe mean a Meaningless to describe the path this kind of percentage, but the the only thing is that The only thing that I we was want to focus on is that the now the likelihood is much larger That's why Japanese Defense Secretary Minister on Odera recently Told commented that From the end of this year onward to the next year Maybe Japan will face a serious crisis in North Korea So we have to prepare for that and Prime Minister Abe also said that because of this reason He hold a snap erection in December last month rather than to Fulfill his tenure until next year September. So the likelihood is much larger and then I like to Describe three scenario possible scenario on the future of North Korean crisis There are three possible scenario according to my account the first one is no war with Denuclearized North Korea. Of course, this is a goal of international community This was decided by United Nations Security Council resolution and also this was agreed by six-party talk a joint Decoration nearly a decade ago, but this scenario is extremely unlikely because as some of the previous speakers already mentioned in different panels that that that the new polarization strongly Closer relate to the regime survival. So as long as North Korean regime likes to Survive it is extremely unlikely to see that the new colonization of North Korea The second scenario is no war with new nuclearized North Korea It means that North Korea maintains its nuclear weapons with ICBM of some other bicycle missiles It is quite dangerous because North Korea continuously Try to Intimidate United States as well as Japan and South Korea or some other surrounding countries So it is quite dangerous scenario because many many smaller states would think that it would be Safer or the most safest thing to have nuclear weapons to avoid American military strike So it would be quite unlikely that we will see rapid proliferation Spread of nuclear weapons to these smaller states. So the second scenario is quite undesirable The third scenario is a war with nuclearized North Korea. It means that North Korea is likely to Attack a solo Tokyo perhaps with nuclear warfares with its basic missiles, of course North Korea Have a power to do that and also North Korea has a clear will to destroy Japan and South Korea, of course It will be retaliated by a huge amount of American military power But it is quite necessary for international community to denuclearize North Korea so we have to quite undesirable scenario one is a No war with nuclearized North Korea. It means a rapid spread of Nuclear weapons in international community and the other one is of course a war. So Maybe the situation is quite tense because it's quite unlikely to dream of Another scenario such as no war with the nuclearized North Korea so finally, I like to conclude my talk by Describing the Japanese strategy for solving this difficult issue Of course, Japanese strategy is to avoid war, but at the same time Japanese strategy is try to Denuclearize North Korea can we Achieve these two goals simultaneously quite unlikely, but still we have to do that and Well, maybe unlike the expectation of many people perhaps I would like to say that Japan has been or Prime Minister Abe has been the leading player in this game for two reasons Prime Minister Abe is very close. He is now playing a goal with President Trump And it's really difficult for many officials in Washington DC or Establishments in Washington DC to influence the policymaking process of President Trump, but Prime Minister Abe has some influence upon the decision-making of President Trump That's why some officials and experts in the Washington DC told me that the safest thing is to ask Prime Minister Abe to Say something to President Trump so His Prime Minister Abe is quite influential. This is one thing and he is experienced in 2002 Prime Minister Abe visited Pyongyang to meet his the father of Kim Jong-un Kim Jong-il and Since then of course in his first administration He knew a lot. He knows a lot about the discussion in the six party tool and that's why Among that major Leader of major countries, I think that Prime Minister Abe is most experienced and most familiar of the details of the Developments of the North Korean missile problem nuclear problem. That's why I think that Japan still Can play a very important and influential role to try to solve the issue and finally I'd like to say that to solve this question difficulty, I think a Japanese strategy is to consolidate International community to put up much stronger pressure and the key is China So I'm really looking forward to listening to my friends professor jazz comment on that. Thank you very much Thank you very much for your concise remarks now In American baseball a sport, which I'm sure all of you are intimately familiar The manager usually puts the most powerful hitter in the number three spot in the lineup. So Dr. Jha You're at the plate if you could give it the eight minutes. I would appreciate it. Well, thank you very much Marcus, it's a great Honor to be here to share with you some of my views Probably I'll talk a little bit You know I'll expand a little bit larger the topic I think uncertainty is Probably the keyword to capture the situation of Asian security It is uncertain at least for three major reasons one is That we seem to be witnessing and emerging rivalry or strategic rivalry between China and the US Americans appear to be more and more concerned about the rise of Chinese military Especially the rise of Chinese naval capabilities There are a lot of predict people predicting that We will have more confrontation in the South China Sea over the construction and on the features of the concern by the concerned parties and also their military activities on the struck constructed features So we are talking about China Vietnam and Philippines and these people these countries may Continue to do certain things and then we will see military Frictions and confrontation and also the Trump administration appear to to Be ready to give a speech On the so-called free and open into Pacific So some people say this is America's strategy to forge some kind of alliance in the region against China And of course, there are a lot of Chinese are also very wary about What the US is going to do? So we have been talking About trying to avoid the so-called lucidity strap But it seems to me that we're moving in that direction Only that we are not there yet It's also uncertain because the territorial and maritime disputes remain very much alive between China and India among the you know, South China Sea claimants and also between China and and Japan in the East China Sea Despite the fact that the situation there has been Improving us appear to be stabilizing however Things can happen Frictions may rise again anytime In the days to come because there are no formal agreements as to how to manage these problems so far The situation is also uncertain because of the North Korean nuclear threat North Korea government has resisted the international pressures This regarded the international sanctions in its effort to push for its nuclear weapons program This has prompted President Trump's threat To take a preemptive strike A lot of people are nervous We are too but It seems to me that the chance for that to happen is increasing Even if that will not happen we still have a problem of the outbreak of a crisis in North Korea In a number of scenarios One is a failed meal and nuclear test Okay May touch off a crisis in North Korea You never know you know some people say you know given the backward facilities that North Korea have in developing nuclear weapons Failure can happen Sooner or later The second scenario is an earthquake induced by the test Would touch off or Bring alive the volcano in the Changbai mountain between China and and North Korea That could have a disastrous effect both in terms of the environment and also in terms of human lives The third scenario is a UN initiated and other sanctions induced crisis in North Korea The sanctions are becoming tighter and tighter Sooner or later if North Korea continues its nuclear program and missile programs We will see a day that China would totally cut off oil supply to North Korea This may bring some problems Great problems in North Korea domestic politics We don't know and of course There is also another scenario that's factional struggle within North Korea Government and party Some people have expected this to happen a long time ago so far it hasn't happened But that does not mean that it will not happen. You never know Okay, and finally US pre-emptive strike may touch off a crisis in North Korea so So crisis situation Has become more likely because of the recent developments the good news is That first, you know present Xi and present Trump seem to have gotten Along with each other so far It's a quite impressive that these two strong characters find each other respectful and They are like they are likely to work together to address the North Korea nuclear issue So present Trump is going to visit Beijing. We'll see the result the second good news is That the relations between China and its neighbors, especially Japan and and South Korea are improving So this may lessen the tension and Help to manage the disputed Territories and maritime interests in the South or in the East China Sea and Finally, I think the shared interests and stakes between China and the US Are Much larger than many People realize Many people have been saying these two countries are getting at each other Very soon But I think they have too many and too much stake to worry about to do that Hence despite uncertainty Asia security may not be doomed I think The best we can do is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst Let me stop here. Thank you. Thank you very much. So now we are going to move from Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia Dr. Ja gave us a nuclear-induced earthquake. Mr. Yao, I hope you don't have anything like that down in Malaysia Thank you, Jack Firstly, I must apologize that I need to leave immediately after I speak because I've got a 630 flight and I thought I could stay until the end of the session, but the Transport people just say that I need to leave the hotel by 4 p.m. I like to very briefly Say that in my opinion, they are six key Security challenges facing Asia as a whole number one. We've heard the North Korea crisis I think as we all know this is a crisis that is unknown unpredictable But my point is that we kind of fought to have war or conflict as a cause of that is too high and Perhaps even lead to a World War three We need to deal with two stubborn and unpredictable leaders and and to be prepared for uncertainties Few people would ever have thought that several months ago the brother Kim Jong-un was Assassinated in my airport in Kuala Lumpur, and that was something that was totally unpredictable. I like to perhaps say that There are three ways that we should deal with North Korea Firstly, I think direct negotiations is important that has to be an opening of direct links the US special representative North Korea Ambassador Jo Yoon happens to be a very close friend of mine because he was the US ambassador in Malaysia before taking up his new role And he was telling me that he's not allowed to even visit North Korea and how can we have a Person who is supposed to be handling negotiations with North Korea not being able to visit North Korea So I think we need to persuade the State Department to perhaps look at a more direct Negotiation approach to North Korea. Secondly, I think there has to be a stronger UN sanctions in North Korea and enforcement of those sanctions In Malaysia, for example, we have frozen the bank account of the North Korean embassy. The North Korean embassy has a very active promoting importing things and trade between North Korea and using the embassy in Malaysia to do other Commercial activities, I think we need to close that down and and thirdly I think we need to ensure and there's some what controversial And sure that there's no regime change in North Korea. We all don't like Kim Jong-un But I think to pursue regime change. I think it's very dangerous very unpredictable I could lead to unwanted consequences. So that's not Korea my second key security challenge That Asian needs to address of course is also something that was alluded to earlier South China Sea we need to find a way forward in the South China Sea approach possibly bringing to a fruition the conclusion of a code of conduct between China and ASEAN It may need a two-part solution. China prefers bilateral negotiations between China and specific countries Which I think would possibly continue and go on but I think China needs to also accept that it has to uphold Mutual and international norms like the law of the sea and freedom of navigation And I think in this regard many of us in ASEAN are hoping that at the China ASEAN Summit in Manila next week The COC could be signed The third security challenge is in Myanmar the Rohingya crisis That I think is the biggest humanitarian crime facing Asia today We are deeply disappointed with Ong San Suu Kyi I mean many had harder up as a democracy icon, but now the ethnic and inhumane cleansing in rock-and-state Our worry in a sense that you could spur a growth of Terrorism, I think the world must pick out on this serious humanitarian crisis fourth Challenge, I think we need to deal with in Asia is the Pakistan-India-China border Minus commission there, but it can lead to accidental flare-up. I would leave the governor to Speak on this later as that is his specific area of expertise the fifth challenge I think we need to deal with is Islamic State Terrorism and the potential of lone wolves attack in Southeast Asia, I think that is something that we are very worried about That is not a biggest threat to Southeast Asia right now Did the conflict in the city of Marawi in southern Philippines is an almost open urban war With volunteers coming from Indonesia Malaysia and Singapore Fighting alongside Filipino Islamic terrorists the radicalization of young Muslim youth Fighting as volunteers in Syria and now coming back to our countries is indeed very worrying Because these people could become lone wolves and in carrying out terrorist activities My sixth point I think which is important to also take into consideration our non-traditional security threats and these could be things like trans-boundary crimes drug and human trafficking economic and cyber crimes piracy human rights abuses and the Smuggling of children and women The key questions that we face then are the existing confidence building mechanisms sufficient What more can be done to further enhance regional peace and stability For Southeast Asia right now for many years. We've got the ASEAN regional forum and more recently the ASEAN Defense Minister's meeting I think this will continue to be important mechanisms The question now is should Asia adopt the European OSCE as a model that perhaps can be a bigger region-wide security Mechanism we need to also have more intelligent sharing Among countries in Asia because that is so important in the fight against terrorism There need to be also new mechanisms and protocols to combat cyber security and cyber terrorism One key point that we have been advocating for a long time is that we need to have governments throughout the region Pushing forward for more inclusive development to reduce inequalities is important because often inequalities Are the cause of terrorism and we need to reduce these causes of terrorism And to be able to engage with younger generation I think it's very important many of them are attracted by the Islamic fundamentalist and extremism we need to be able to get out and Have good exchanges with them. I Think at the end of the day, we need to have perhaps more track 2 or track 1.2 1.5 Dialogues can be open semi-official dialogues that track 2 or track 1.5 can achieve better than your official government dialogues At the end of the day, I like to quote Vincent Churchill is better to Georgia than to World War. Thank you Thank You Michael If North Korea wasn't enough, he's added the South China Sea Myanmar Pakistan India China Isis and non-traditional security threats to the agenda Safe travels back to KL use of one on D. Thank you Good fight Well, I would like to expand a little bit Because the three speakers has been concentrating on North Korea and it's likely so because this is the most maybe a Cute problem at this juncture, but at the same time I consider that only as a symptom of the uncertainties of the region and I do think as In other regions we have talked about in the last two days Uncertainty is the new normal in East Asia as well and now why What was let me try to explain some of the background I Think basically and mainly it is because of the rise of China and especially now with President Xi Jinping strong leadership and Then on the other hand is the election of President Trump Who has brought many uncertainties for us as you know because That is know that as far as I am concerned in the last Maybe one year or so just also even before the elections You know, we cannot follow what he really have in mind That is maybe the most critical issue for me If there is more certainties then we know how to react But with President Trump, we just don't know and not only we don't know he is also changing every day What do you want to do with this man? You see as a leader so therefore There are basic problems arising now how we have to react how we have to do next With the lacuna's with the gaps that has been established because of this uncertainties now I do think that We should be Positive and active we cannot just leave it and walk away from it And and that's why I do think that meetings like this is a critical important events that could at least create Understanding and better understanding if not you know of the issues and of the policies coming up in this relationship that I'm talking about and secondly also taking actions taking cooperation and as a feeling of the possible gaps that has already been and has already started to be created What do I mean by that? We definitely has to recognize the United States is important country and therefore we cannot just leave her behind Because she is too important to be left behind basic But of course, you know, we have to do all the efforts that is necessary to be done but Mind you, I have my doubts definitely and it will be very great efforts on us And even then I still have my doubts You know, no whether anything will be followed because he has a bunch of AIDS around him, especially the generals who are trying to do just that on the security of East Asia particularly to show You know to him that the existing actually institutions and Relationship that the United States has in the region is a still very important and can just not be denied and And and and because Trump losing leave, of course, you know, besides the problem of jetting up the atmosphere on the North Korean problem and Nuclear problem, which is not paying off. It makes everybody just a little bit more confused and excited But for her more what what what has he brought in in the news as new policies? But so that is definitely, you know, this is why we have to cooperate also Because we have to stand up against these type of actually policies in the future and the uncertainties that are off now secondly, I would like to argue is After we have to try it and definitely we have to try it out again and again and now President Trump is in the region and he is going to two ASEAN countries one in Vietnam For a pack and the other one is for ASEAN East Asian Summit in Manila now hopefully This is one of these efforts. I said where we have to persuade him And and deal with him and try to convince him that all these policies that we have had are good now But otherwise, you know besides all these efforts, we also have to look Possibilities of how to cooperate among ourselves and if China soon and that is the the paradox, of course, you know The year we have actually a liberal a liberal leader Supposedly to be leading the world and the government system of the world and compared to a more authoritarian rule and more, you know Actually illiberal man now open up To the problems that we are facing it is Xi Jinping who said I'm going to take the lead in opening up The trade arrangements, etc. I'm going to take the lead in the climate change problem I'm going to take the lead also, you know in changing and and leadership of the world as much as such So therefore we also have to try out with China what she meant and what she is willing to do We can't just not leave that as an open question because I think cooperation is a very necessary thing and Therefore even with China we have to deal with China in the right way Open up knows exactly what she is willing to do and she has of course to show the seriousness of Operation as she has done and try to do in the South China Sea that has been mentioned by Michael We have now concluded the framework for this COC so-called the code of conduct and We hope that next year or so we can implement that in more concrete legal forms So secondly, of course, we are also now trying to do this regional trading arrangement The RCEP so-called the regional comprehensive economic partnership in East Asia And we try at least here also to do our part How to deal with this issue which is so critical for the region because the region is so dependent on Economic cooperation, maybe let me stop at that because the moderator become become serious I think a little bit nervous now for the for the time So I let me stop at that and I'm an open up of course for questions later on. Thank you Thank you very much. We thought we had professor Hosoya until 430, but apparently we have him until right now So thank you very much for your contribution have a safe travels back to Tokyo So now we turn to mr. Narayan who Who is who is the last but we know of course that means he is the first so please Sure. Yeah Who's gonna further expand our agenda as though it didn't need further expansion Thank You Marcus It's a privilege to be here at the 10th world policy conference and special thanks to Montia theory for the stewardship of the WPC in these very fractured times The last speaker has Some advantages and some disadvantages much of what I Would like to say has been covered But I've been assured by Marcus that I can take in the couple of extra minutes if it comes to that So From what we have just heard from the previous speakers One thing is obvious that the shift in the geopolitical center of gravity from the Euro-Atlantic To the Indo-Pacific further overshadowed by the rise of China has led to a very significant turn in relationships and events in Asia Today most of the rivalries in Asia are being played out in Northeast Asia the Indo-Pacific the so-called up Park region and West Asia Asia may today be an area of economic growth but the truth is that Many of the old sources of stability in Asia have broken down Earlier ideological divisions have weakened No doubt, but religious orthodoxy Radical Islamist ideology and the terror imperative had become more marked We've heard a lot just now about what's happening in North Korea So I don't have to dilate on that at any point Accepting to say that all of us agree that North Korea poses one of the gravest threats seen to peace In the region and beyond than at any than any other one We also heard a lot about what's happening in in East Asia and to some extent Southeast Asia I only want to say that most most of us in Asia are concerned about Where China stands? It's a great civilization But there is an impression that China wishes to exert its authority It's insist on its exceptionalism and its uniqueness and Most nations particularly in East and Southeast Asia are concerned as to where China is headed The 19th Party Congress did little to assuage such concerns and Following China's announcement of its great power ambitions its projection as a military and economic superpower and especially the contents on presidential Make China great against speech has added to these concerns But I'm here basically to speak about South troubles in South Asia and West Asia South Asia Afghanistan in South Asia is today one of the most troubled regions not only in Asia, but across the world Afghanistan may be in South Asia But I think it is the heart of Asia The situation here is extremely fragile The elected government in Afghanistan has lost control over much of the countryside almost 40 percent perhaps even more None of the other groups that are present in Afghanistan Can claim any control any any large-sized control over areas and territories The most distinctive aspects of Afghanistan is the degree of violence that is present there I don't think it's being reflected the same extent as as I think we should I do at least what people of us who live in South Asia and perhaps Southeast Asia are aware of Today the so-called Afghan Taliban the Hakani network The ISIS that is the Islamic State Apart from several other terrorist groups indigenous to Afghanistan such as the Hizbe Islami and the Harkat-ilahi Islami They are the defining aspect of Afghanistan The elected government counts for much less than the actual degree of violence that is taking place almost on an on an average Minimum of about 30 to 40 people are being killed in Afghanistan and this does hardly finds much mentioned there Achieving peace in Afghanistan is entirely dependent on getting the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table This can be achieved only through the exercise of force without Afghan Taliban Agreeing to accept some of the conditions for talks no peace can exist At the same time you can't do that To the exclusive thing of only the Taliban because there is the ISIS specter or the Islamic State specter, which has to be there so we have a conflict of Priorities as far as the region is concerned. I show you that the situation is extremely complex and complicated the occasional increase in troops Listening of troops, etc. Has not added to the city and had not brought any bit more measure to the situation There are efforts being made for peace in Afghanistan There is a Pakistan led quadrilateral Coordination group which includes the United States and China apart from Pakistan and Afghanistan But it is not making any headway only love only this month. I think on the sorry last month The Quadrilateral the quadrilateral mayor meeting held but two days after the meeting was held. They were two devastating attacks in Afghanistan there is another one which is being organized by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization the contact group that is also meeting with the same unfortunate fate Michael mentioned about two other critical areas of conflict in South Asia One is of course the Pakistan India in Brolia, which is going on. I Agree that there are tensions in between the two countries the situation has to some extent deteriorated in the past two years But I think there is a great deal of restraint on both sides So I and I would like to assure this house that the possibility of a major conflict or a Confrontation is not present It is it is present. It is an ever-present reality But I think the leadership on both sides is aware of the nature of the threat and the seriousness of that threat There was a reference Michael also made to the China India conflict I Was the special representative for border talks with China During the years of national security advisor. We have differences. We have a very long border There are difficulties across the border But I can assure you that Conflict an open conflict other than border incursions and border kinds is out of the question We recently had a standoff at a place called Doklam It is it is in Bhutan on the tri-junction between Bhutan India and China and I Can assure this house that Both India and China are conscious of the complications that can arise if they go beyond Certainistic there will be tensions for the tensions can will be maintained. So I think China India border problem is not something that we Need to be concerned as a long term that there's a clash between two civilizations and I think that will continue I Do think there was there was no mention here about West Asia and I think that is an area which requires a great deal of attention because Four of the of the countries in the world which have the largest Muslim populations are in Asia Indonesia Bangladesh Pakistan India So what happens in West Asia? particularly not so much maybe the clashes as much as the ideological clash that is taking place between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran Creating the possibility of a basic divide Down the middle is highest potential for countries which have large Muslim populations The Shia Sunni balance is something that I think we need to we are in Morocco here We are on the on the periphery of the it is something that is going to be going to remain with us for some time It has implications which are not too obvious at this moment. It is not going to be confined to Saudi Arabia I'm sorry to West Asia. It is going to be much beyond that The Qatar standoff with Saudi Arabia is an instance and point of this kind There is also another aspect the Isis Facing is facing some setbacks in in areas like Syria and and Iraq and whatnot But do remember that as the Isis is so-called suppressed in this region they're they're Stormtroopers are moving across the rest of the world We need to be aware that this will Michael touched on this point that Terrorism will be magnified as a result of excessive pressure that has been applied to him There's also the aspect that as the Isis weakens other forces are emerging in this area The courts for instance are trying to redraw the boundaries of some of the countries. I Do believe that the next phase of the struggle in West Asia May be determined by the by who controls the territory once held by the Isis but Do remember that notwithstanding water was happening in terms of the conflict between countries except the ideology and Appeal of radicalized Islamist movements Especially the Isis and Al Qaeda remains unaffected one word of caution if The Iran nuclear deal were to unravel. I think we'll have a new Area of tensions arising in the region the implications of this. I think I Wish we could have a special session on that What I would like to stress is that Asian security today One of the speakers said that things are better. My assessment is that Asian security today is in a state of flux There are major centers of violence that have emerged. There's West Asia, which I briefly touched on There is Afghanistan which I dealt with in little more detail There are problems across in parts of Southeast Asia where nations are concerned about the rise of China's Ambitions and of course there are the conflicts in East Asia itself the South China Sea East China Sea sign. Thank you very much Thank you, so now I'd like to turn to the question and answer period What I'd like to do is group say three questions together and then give the panel the opportunity to respond when you ask a question Please identify yourself and if the questions are directed at a particular individual Please let us know that as well. Doug Paul Thank you. I'm Doug Paul from the Carnegie in the Dalmatian, Washington I want to thank the organizers for arranging the Conference version of the farewell symphony of Haydn where one by one the performers leave before the piece is over I want to first pay tribute to Governor Narayanan's insight and wisdom on the big picture of security in China in the great tradition of Indian diplomats like Sham Saran and Shivshankar Menon and now Vijay Kokoli in Beijing. That's a very important statement but I want to ask two somewhat related questions throughout the discussion of North Korea No one has mentioned containment or deterrence Some have talked about comprehensive Verifiable Irreversible destruction of the nuclear capabilities, but that seems to be very far away and People don't want to intrude with violence So we may be living with Containment and deterrence a long time Can we do that for 35 years or whatever the life expectancy of Kim Jong-un is likely to be? And secondly a little bit more provocatively If you go to the White House and ask people in the current administration About the erratic statements of President Trump. It is kind of saber-rattling Characterizations and 144 characters They'll say have you noticed? That he has intimidated China into taking more steps to constrain the flow of Assistance to North Korea. Have you noticed that since he made his threats there have been no more ICBM tests or nuclear tests? Maybe his methods have a way of working. How do you respond to that? Very good. Yes I'm Renaud Girard. I'm the phone affairs columnist of Le Figaro, which is a French daily I would like to I mean the main danger in Asia is two rising powers China and America I would like to know Because the situation in the current peninsula will not change. I mean China obviously doesn't want a reunification of Korea Even in South Korea, I don't think that the youth wants to Reunification with North Korea, maybe the old people, but not the youth Japan I think doesn't say anything about that, but I don't think that Japan wants the reunification of Korea, so I don't think that There will be any change and you have a dictator who doesn't want to end like Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein and tries to protect himself but the But there's these two big rising powers, but the rising power which is China and The last power is America I would like to know What is exactly the rule that China Assigns to the US in Pacific What are they ready? What China is ready? to Accept as an American presence in the Pacific In Asia, that's the question of a man who asked questions for a living Any other questions before I turn to the panel Okay, so Who would like to go first? sure you sir Well the first is Doc's Question I think the Containment and deterrence I would like to leave to the experts of the North of the Korean Peninsula, but What shall I say? To the question when somebody asks he has achieved a lot with all this bull LBS, sorry You know and and and so what what do you so how do you respond to that? My response is that it's also a question mark whether he has to achieve it because of his rhetorics For me as a question mark because this King John is not a dummy, too You know and therefore I don't think it is now, you know a Relevant to ask to ask the question whether this rhetorics that confuses things a lot in the meantime is really critical for the containment and Deternance that you mentioned maybe I don't believe that to be frank with you number two But that it of course chanting work will be answering it as as as a scholar on a Chinese scholar But what I have picked up You know on on the the red that road that China would like to give to the United States is That East Asia is big enough for both of them To cooperate and to survive They don't want Some of the things and you know which one such as spying along their codes and etc They don't like that and they are opposed to that and they are of course on the long-term preparing themselves for the eventuality according to me that there will be a confrontation with the United States one day But for the time being first, they know that they are not ready completely to take over Second also, they know that you know, they are still a lot to be done that they can do together That is my observation from the outside On what China thinks at this stage for the next 10 years at least, you know on the role of the United States Jing Ho, maybe you can add because you know better Well The first question is whether deterrence and containment strategy Can be used Well, I think from the American perspective it can be used Actually, you can you wreck Missile defense system in the middle of the Pacific and protect yourself But the problem is Even from the American perspective you can pose a serious problem First what about the eastern part of I mean the the Pacific part of the US cannot be protected By some kind of a missile defense arrangement and also what about the military alliances you have American allies Japan and South Korea, especially are not going to be happy with that because They don't have a viable deterrence capability to to to Do that and China is not happy because China has is next to South Korea no Deterrence I Mean no defense Missile defense arrangement can can protect China and also, there is a more serious problem that is a proliferation Regime is going to be down the drain. Oh Non-proliferation regime is going to be down the drain so It's a it's a problem Big challenge For all of us Trump's policy on North Korea on China to make China to push for push North Korea is that working? To some extent is working But at the same time I think It works because China is China's position is moving in that direction I Remember well, I think China's the discourse of North Korea in China Policy discourse has moved over time from how much we should help North Korea to whether we should help North Korea to How much we should push North Korea nowadays? So, you know given this contest It's not a surprise that She is more you know responsive to Trump's pressures and finally reunification of I mean, what's the role of the US? In the Pacific in the Asia in this region for China. What's the ideal role? I don't know what was the idea what the ideal role is but I think China on the rise Poses a serious problem for China as well That is it's very difficult to define its interest to know what really wants China is both a developing country and a developed country at the same time. It's a Rich country and poor country at the same time. It's a strong country and weak country at the same time It's an ordinary country and a superpower at the same time and it's the interests are in conflict So it's very difficult for China to figure out what it wants at this good at this moment of transition So that to some extent affect our view of what the proper role of the US in the Pacific in the in this part of the world Sometimes we want the US to stay and to play a larger role especially when it comes to make sure that Japan will not become remediatorized and also to maintain the security order in the region But sometimes we find the US presence a nuisance They I mean the US military try to stop China from doing this and doing that and threatened to to You know issue threats against China so I don't know, you know China also finds itself exclude excluded from the these military alliances So it's like it's the other party Not one of us. So I think this creates this this alienates China so I think the It will take some time for China to develop a More clear You know view as to what kind of role Is proper for the US to play in the region you stop here Well Yeah, I think Officers, you know we treat it and the poor soldiers Standing in the front. I mean, you know for the barrage of Difficult questions, but nevertheless, well, I like the dog Paul for the question out of his maybe Disappointment I mean in dealing with North Korea Well, we Put our hands on this issue when we were in Washington together So Well, a dog has been very much disappointed tired Of North Korea's brink man ship. Well, so I'm glad he raised this question and put up his Wisdom to deal with North Korea You know by the means of containment and deterrence Well, I spent you know, most of my diplomatic career struggling with this issue and I got retired without seeing in the result Resolution of this issue, but my mind is always on this issue Well, when I dealt with North Korea, I thought we could realize some bargaining and even we could buy a North Korean nuclear program with the cash and But I think I was mistaken and I don't think anymore We can deal with North Korean nuclear program with providing economic assistance or cash well so If we try to resolve this issue in a short period of time then We are you know, we tend to make a similar mistakes So I think we have to have enough time to to do something I mean for this issue so You know containment and the strength in the sanctions By the UN by the international community is the right track So they feel pains. I mean, you know Well, the past the sanctions or you know UN Statement was peanut. I mean it didn't work So North Korea thought very lightly of any actions taken by the UN at that time But now different. I mean this issue was among the countries concerned in the region Now it has become the global security issue. So I'm glad that We take up this issue in this world policy conference so it will take, you know longer time and I think a containment plus deterrence military deterrence extended deterrence provided by the US I think it will take effect Well about China's role toward North Korea Well, Professor Jia, you know, he explained I mean The attitude changed. I mean, you know from Well the past I mean Chinese always thought how to help North Korea, you know overcoming this difficulties issues But now they think whether they should do that or not But I have some different opinion, you know, well We as you know, we introduced the third system defend the US military, I mean stationed in Korea and We thought it was necessary to defend ourselves as well as the US forces But because of that, I mean China punished the South Korea and they severed all You know, a normal and regular relations for about one year During the time Korean business, I mean, you know inflicted a lot of loss. I mean Even Lotte business group they closed down their retail sector operating in in China and the Hyundai cars their sales cut back half so I mean the amount of Korean businesses loss amounted to maybe billions of dollars. So Well, I'm glad that the recently We we, you know, China and Korea Made agreement. I mean to to finish this awkward. I mean situation. So We will return to the normal good relations. So Well, why China punished the South Korea instead of North Korea when we Took our self-defense major. So that is my question mark, but I will stop here On an entirely different topic because we're about to run out of time. No, I just I just wanted to explain the point Everybody talks of North Korea, but I thought the quit because the China in Asia is a bigger issue than than North Korea and I think it has it has implications for the world at large. I Mean I think from from the rest of Asia The view is that China is the rising power today and China is not masking its ambitions The other transformative is that the United States is seen as a status quo power. I Don't I don't want to use the word receding power. It has implications across the region Take India for instance We Have no Basic conflict, but there is a there is an at what I call a civilization conflict between these two nations We have now developed much closer relations with Japan and I think one reason is The rise of China kind of thing It's not that we anticipate the China is going to attack anyone but their impression now The United States the pivot to Asia has completely gone. So all nations are adjusting their priorities I think the rise of China is the most dominant aspect of Politics at least as far as Asia is concerned I'm not saying that China is going out of its way to prove it but but it is a fact and therefore There was for a long the United States had pressed for a quadrilateral between the United States Japan Australia and India India had been India's now shifting stance to some extent it has softened its approach towards us It's all a part of thing. So the rise of China they and I Don't know when to use the word weakness of the United States is having a very major Sort of impact on the way nations are adjusting their priorities and their situations and I think how this term plays out is going to be what is the future for the next five years in between the 19th and the 20th party Congress and President Xi certainly gives an impression that He's not merely in command of China But he wishes to be in command of a lot greater greater area so I think we have to be careful and I'm taking it not merely looking at the North Korean angle and looking at the entire point whether it's Southeast Asia East Asia Etc. And China has now moved. It's now. It's a major factor in West Asia also China and Russia have become major major factors in the West Asian situation. So all this makes China a rising power I don't say necessarily some it's a wrong wrong thing But it is a factor and it has an impact on almost all nations certainly even a country like India Okay, well, thank you very much. I think that wraps up this panel Thank you to our participants look forward to the young leaders panel coming up next