 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. On one, Basil Chapman on this 31st day of August, last trading day of the month, and we're looking at something very interesting, but I just wanted to show you this first. I remember yesterday I was talking about that 45-30 level that I said will become a focal point. It was out of completely. It just wasn't even in the cards at all. Way back was that. Let me just scroll down here. I don't want to go all the way back. But two days ago, we were way under it in the e-mini futures, and then all of a sudden it came into focus, and look how many times we've hit this. This is a straight line. This is just that horizontal line I drew weeks and weeks ago. I said it's going to become important. Let's just keep it there, and let's see what happens when we get back to it. Well, yesterday at exactly 7.32 a.m., we went right through that, went to a peak e, made a cup formation, and then this morning, that was this morning. Yeah, this morning we tested it, came back, and then all of a sudden it was a PCE. Yeah, the date of this morning came out, and then pop. It comes. Wiggle, wiggle, wiggle, and it makes, I'm calling that an E. It's very unusual for me to say taking out a starting point in a buy signal to buy mode just negates everything. In this particular instance, because it's economic news, I always say that 8.30 a.m. is the one time that I have to say you've got to be flexible because you get that single leg A. I called the Eiffel Tower straight up and straight down. In this case, it wiggled and wiggled. They had a very long doji candle, not quite a doji, but long-legged, up and down with the body in the middle. Then it went to an E, and then it suddenly started to turn down. So if you were looking at this in terms of go long or go short at the 45-37 level, that was about the easiest thing up until then. It wasn't very easy, but once it turned negative with the comparable spikes in the 5- and 10-minute chart, that was probably one of the safer positions to put on. But even that got to be bumpy. You've got an arch formation. Finally, what does it do? It goes right down to the 45-30 level, plunges underneath it. Not plunges. It goes sharpie below to the 45-20. I believe it was 27, 26 level, and then balances. Then you've got this wriggling again, peak D in the chamois, pulls back and goes to peak A, peak B, and a peak C1 and C2. What's going on? Look how many times we've hit that 45-30 level. So just in terms of education, that's what we like to do here. Oh, talk about education. That was really good. Tom O'Brien did his workshop yesterday. Really it was for subscribers. It's very interesting. I've been listening to Tom. He's been listening to me since 2022. I talk about on-balance volume. He talks about volume. He uses it in his particular. I always say, whatever methodology you have, refine it. Get it better and better and better. It has nothing to do with what anybody else thinks. It's what you do successfully. So I look at this on-balance volume. Just here on the one-minute chart. Look how it's chopped around. But look at that nice load that it gave at about 947, with that nice move to the upside, and then that reversal, that it peaks C1 and C2. So I also have volume here, but the volume is so important in the way that you interpret it. So I just want to say thank you. Thank you, Tom. I really enjoyed it. And it's fascinating as much as I hear you, the way you were presenting things. I got a lot out of it in the sense that it was educational and additive. And I always say, if you have a good technique, anything else that anybody says should be additive to your work. If it's subtractive, I mean, why bother? Or if it points out something that's wrong, that's different. But if it just kind of makes things confusing, no, this was very nice. Very clear. Thank you very much. A couple of answers. If anybody's interested in that workshop, I highly recommend that if you first of all, you become a subscriber. But at the same time, just that alone was worth the education. Here we go. So I'm anticipating that we're making some kind of a shortish term top right here. So now I can go through all these different indices. I'll do this quite quickly because there's a ton to. I had so many questions. Just before I do anything else, I wanted to just read this here. We had a while, quite a while back. We had a Kevin writing in. He said, if I, I'm thinking that I would like to start three positions in the S and P. And I'm going to have one and there was a position that he was going to take fairly soon. And then I'm having one lower down and then I'm having a third one lower down because I've always said, if you have, do not cost average because you made a mistake. But if your plan is to say, I think that the bigger picture is going up or going down, but whatever your bigger plan is, then if you move around that in a judicious way, in a well-organized, judicious way, that's the best thing to do. So he said, hi Basil, as a long and also during the interim period, he had asked about shorting and I said, you know, you've done so well just sticking to this, this buying method that yeah, a short-term trades absolutely, but don't confuse the two. Well, hi Basil, as a longer-term investment, I was looking at buying S and P, recent dip at three levels and grabbed two thirds around the 4380 level. We are now trading at 4526. Far above that as the second position. For my last one third, would you wait to get back down there at the 4300 or buy now? Thanks Kevin. So Kevin, I don't want to change your philosophy. Remember we spoke about that. I said, that's what you've got to stick to because it's done very well for you. Even as it stands right now with the two positions you have, I'm willing to bet you are still up quite nicely percentage-wise. I would stay with the plan. The only thing I would change is because the way that the market has moved up right now and I want to do this, this is for everyone. I just, I've got rigged right now because I was asked in the dinner about trans-ocean. My limited question was, is it, yeah, you better lock in your home heating oil price. I don't disagree with that. So he says oil is going to 300 gallon, but the question is, think rig add. So he said, in the same sense, and he also said, Bas, on any chance we see $300 oil, and I said it depends on which currency. I was just joking. We'll talk about that. I mean, I can't talk about $300 oil. I just don't do that. Back of my mind, I could be thinking anything. In fact, I'm reading this book now. It was sent to me by one of my subscribers called The Fourth Turning. And I'll talk about it as we move along. I know a lot of people have read it from way back. I can't remember if I read little bits of it, but I got a feeling I'd let that one go by. And I'm always talking about this coat of face. But I make it as simple as possible. We go from a period of sparsity to a period of excessivity. It's just as simple as that. And the period of excessivity that I'm thinking of is that people around the world will be using their computers to be trading stocks and just going crazy on whatever is the fashion of the time. We haven't even got close to that. So with that, I'm going to stop at up 106 of the doubt. And now I'll get different. But yes, rig, you can add to it as a trade. Right now, only as a trade. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. 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So, I've got the crew to all right here. Let's just deal with that because it is important in the sense that you've got, as someone said in the Tiger YouTube, which talks about the black gold and, of course, about the liquid, black liquid and the gold liquid. Right. So, within that context, what I'm looking at here is that crude oil has held very well to project much higher prices. For me, the back of my mind, I'm saying this is a period where the tide is trying to change dramatically in the idea of alternate energy and especially for automobiles. When people say, oh, I remember my friend when we were at the auto show back in 2005 or something like that here in the Boston area. So, Prius was, I think it was the first period where the Prius had come out. And he said, ah, another 20 years it will all be over. There won't be any gas. I said, Julius, we're talking about an infrastructure that has to change. It always takes 30 to 50 years before you can go from turning the key or pressing the button to whatever it is for the layperson to have got that particular whatever it is. I mean, even if you think of the computers, back in 1980s we started doing with Apple, right? Well, it took until about the 2005s for us. I used to be online with problems for hours. I used to get data that took from Friday's close until Monday's open. Just as it opened, I was lucky to get the data finished. This was all data around the world. I don't know why I ever did that. But I used to have the modem going at it was good. So it takes a long time. So to me crude oil has a function. The semiconductor chips have taken over that function. They both now work in concert, but the one is going to lead the other and the whole battery operation is going to be for the 21st century. That's where we're going. It might even not be batteries in there. It'll be a glass of water that has something. You never know what the leapfrog of technical innovation takes in place, right? So in that sense, I think crude oil, I'm not talking about 300 crude, unless it's just an aberrational thing over the next year or two. But I do see oil going higher. And the shorter term, there's a lot of resistance in the 84, even if it breaks that somewhere between 84 and 87. At least this is the way I'm looking at it. So this is a one step at a time. And absolutely, there's 200 per moving average of 77. That's key support. Now, okay, that gets to one of the things yesterday. The next thing is, within the context of what we're looking at, just let me go here because the month is about to finish. We don't know where the market will close today, but I think that you can see the last couple of days at the end of month buying has been in place and it's going to take something really unusual to kind of stop that today. So let's just say that even if we pull back sharply from here, that monthly chart is not. I shouldn't ever say that, but I just don't see at 45, 30 right now, back to that trend line, right? This is the cash there. 4507 to have a hundred and seventy-something point up move. Now, I just don't see it today. So this is going to become a peak C. I think in September, how we break into leg D above 45, let's say 4520 to get into the 4520s, that's going to be important. The way I'm looking at the MACD and the stochastic, it's really positive in the monthly chart. Nine is over the 14, price is over the nine. The shorter term weekly chart has this nine per moving average. I just need to go to this for those of you new to my work. Look at that. This is the SMHs. Look how nicely it turned up. Went back to positive. We're actually still short because I think there's still some choppiness left over here. I'm thinking about when we've taken off our aggressive, the short positions, taking real nice profits. Just stepped aside for now. But look at this. This is the daily. Let me show you the weekly chart. I'll just change it right now. Look, the weekly chart springboard from the 14 period moving up because the S&P, this is the weekly chart springboard from the 14 period moving up because of the Dow. This is the weekly chart. We're just using two moving averages, the 914. I don't really want to move this. I'll move it now and just put it back. Look, springboard, but it hasn't really had a fantastic move up, but it is a very nice move up from the 14 period moving average in price. But the 9 is still way above the 14. Look at the XLK. This is the XLK is the S&P Select Spider tech fund. Nice move up. And then 9 is not even considering coming back. You can just go on and on. Look at gold. Gold hasn't turned positive yet. Gold is down three at 1970. Look, it hasn't. This is a continuous contract. That 9p moving average is still negative. But wait a minute. Look at silver. Can I do that? Is that a problem? Silver has that fabulous move sideways to the weekly chart, but it's been making low lows and low highs. Here is an inside trading range. And that pink 9p moving average is close to turning up, but it hasn't yet. Look at the dollar. And this to me is absolutely imperative to monitor. Because the dollar, look at that. Beautiful left side, right side price, time match. The 9p moving average flip positive. So to me, the possibilities are there, but I'd much rather talk about what's happening now in real time. So let's just go to this. This is a fabulous move. We try to get long. We are still short from that exact high. We only want one short because I said that the Dow has a right mix. Even though it's lagging somewhat, the other indices, I think it has the right mix for the next phase up. And therefore, we only went one to one short. But look what's happened. There's a tab where falling acts. We haven't gone one to one to the upside where we've done it. If it's, I don't want to do it right now from that low at 30. Sorry. It was the S&P. I didn't mean to do that. I meant the Dow. From this low of 34,025, that's a very nice move up. It's not great, but it's very nice. And this tab we've inside track resistance level, the falling acts of resistance there. We've gone above it. If it goes much higher, then I have to grab the outer level over there. And that would be the next move up. But in the meantime, I'm fine with all these highs being hit. That little wick gets discarded and these three highs are very important. And we're above it. But look at the difference in the indices themselves. Look at the S&P. It's almost done. If I'm conservative, it's a more than a one to one from this low to that high. And then from this low equal up to there, it's extended. But look at that weekly, that nine over the 14 is really good. Look at the monthly chart. It doesn't even look, even though we had a really bad, not a recession, they haven't called it, although we know that it really was. Because this couple V-shaped formation from the high back in January of 2022. We're almost there. I'll be back. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. 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So, that was an article. Oh, I see your coding article that said that Crudo should go to 300. I can't remember where the article came from. But, okay, that's fine. Just, I mean, people have opinions. As I said, I just... I don't want to get wildly out of place when, in fact, it's like I'm saying, you're on your way to New York from Boston and you're not even at Hartford. And you say, oh, New York's fantastic. No, it's just the place that you're going to. First, you've got to get to Hartford, right? So, we haven't done that. So, in the meantime, let me go one at a time. One was a question about the dollar. What about the weekly that went to a lowercase h than an m-shaped pattern, went below, closed above it? Where does that go to? Well, all I can say is that the weekly chart technicals are still kind of mixed. We've only now seen the nine-page flip over to positive in the weekly chart. I've been talking about this for some time. I'm saying we stuck in a trading range, but the bias on the daily chart is really very good to the upside. Nine-page moving is fantastic. It's worked beautifully. I should also mention we've been long for about a few years, now quite a few years since 2018. So, what we're looking at is within the dollar, it's in this trading range. And the only way I can look at it is to say, well, you should have a mirror image at least in one of the inverse currencies. Well, the euro has the exact top of the, the exact pattern was having, it broke above the resistance, but it was making higher highs and higher lows. That pattern hasn't changed. But look at the sharp move down today. Look at the importance of this 200-page moving average of 1.080. So, all I can say is the euro hasn't given me any signs and the USDJPY has given me a sign. This is the US dollar, Japanese yen. This is the yen basically. And what we're looking at is gone up very nicely in the weekly. That weekly is still strong. The daily is strong, but technically I'm starting to see some weakness. I've made a peak F holding very nicely, but that 9 is still over the 14. So, all of this is a work in progress. And that's really what I wanted to say about the dollar before, that yes, I think that the dollar will be pulling back, but it's a work in process. And just like the Dow, when we were doing this for weeks, we were talking about how the Dow 9-page moving average was so strong in the daily chart and that it would be a process and you'd have to use other techniques to get any sell signal which we got on the exact day of the high using a different technical tool. And then you're looking at this and all I'm saying is that, yeah, this is kind of a work in progress to say, where will the low be? But because of this powerful move, because I'm looking at say, this is taking down, look at CRM, sales force, I mean, this is fantastic. Finally, you've got an earnings report with a spectacular gain in the big talker. This guy is just amazing. Benioff, I've followed him for years and years and years. I complained when they moved to that new building, but actually this is one of the few times that the building didn't correspond exactly to the high in the market. This went to 311.25 in November of 2021. Usually I put that together, the accessibility of architecture that goes with market tops like the Empire State Building. The papers were passed in the summer of 1929 and the high was at 386 and the Dow, this exact long weekend of 1929. Okay, so I like to do that and I spoke about Petronas Towers, I've got all those notes over here. I showed the building, you should have a major collapse in their currency I've spoken about and all these different. Even in 2000, there was a popular science cover right there in March, in January of 2000 that had the world's tallest building that was going to be built in Chicago. Was it the world's tallest or was the tallest building in America? And then they changed the plans. They did it in 2007. They had the plans already again. They've still haven't built that building I believe in Chicago. So let's get back to our story. So there's internal strength. I like that. My big question was, was that the low that we saw a week and a half ago, or was it a low? And I think it's a low. I think that's going to be an internal low and we'll wait for a residual low and that's kind of the way I'm looking at it right now. So I'm trying to look, CRM is in the Dow, IBM, old IBM. This is a company that is going to go way higher. It's turned the corner, international business machines, information technology, AI, cloud and enterprise software. Here it is at 147, up 36 cents all time. No, the most recent all time high was at the 153 level. 151 was back in 2020. Then 153 was in January, I think in December. Let me just check. Yeah, December of 2023. How can it be December of 2023? 2022? I thought there was a little problem there. So all I'm saying is that things are happening that I don't see the kind of crash that takes these things down now to the 86th level of March of 2020 and IBM or CRM to the low that was made. No, maybe the recent low, the 126 low of December 2023. No, I just not at this particular point. I think they've turned the corner. So in essence, what am I saying? I'm saying a huge amount of reparate repairing has been done in the markets and that yes, we can be ready for some kind of slide. Now let me go to all the questions. There we go. I've done that. I've done that. I've done that. I've done that. Now let's see. I saw a question that I had glanced over before but forgot to read. So let me go. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, we go. Did I miss something? No, I haven't missed it yet. There we are. Scrolling, scrolling oil. Okay. Oh, the question came in. Let me just get to that. It was over here. GDX. This was the question. Basil, look at 222 monthly Hammer candle August. Okay. That's the one thing I haven't seen. Triple M. I'll do that. And there was a GDX question. GDX just getting started. Okay. So let me just do one at a time. Let's do the GDX because a lot of people are looking at the GDX. Yeah. The GDX, this is the gold miners. This is the one that tells me that it's going to be a process for gold and silver to really start to make the big move. I don't think this is the big move. I think this is a potentially very nice bounce coming up over the next few weeks. I think there's still going to have to be some testing going on. And until at 39.38, until I actually, looking at the bigger statement there, that GDX is just getting started, until GDX on a weekly basis closes two weeks out of three, about 30 to 80. That's called a 34. This is all just a process right now. A gold report. As a precious metal gold is still king. 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When it plunged down to the 280s, announced a 358 because of the whole banking, there was so many facets to why this cannabis sector ETF just couldn't make it. Now I think it's out of the woods in terms of the tubes. I think it's going to try to establish some kind of a low in the maybe a 320 to 310 area will be supported. We'll see because if it does hold that, then within that there should be plays that you can do, especially if the market starts to pull back early September, then this could be a place to go to, but it's still fought with a lot of issues. So let me just go through. So now let me quick your cue a monthly should wait for the end of the end of the day. But that monthly has got is a very strong leg A, the monthly technicals are very strong. Stochastic said 88%. This is important. It's acting very, very well. So any at this particular point, how the cues are any sudden I don't see the nine period moving average moving under the 14 unless the weekly chart. And this is trading at 342 to 379 somewhere in the low 340s and you'll have plenty of warning if that's going to happen because the price will have to go underneath the low that was established in about 354 the other day. So this is exactly what I think there's a lot of things that have turned positive, not just on the shorter term, but are helping the intermediate terms. So that's important. So that was a triple M. Let's do this in sequence. Here we go. Triple M nice bounce today. It had a gap and it has a full the gap and this is a leg C. So you made it low. Most recently in the 97s now it's trading A and this is what I mean about this. This is in the Dow. This is what I mean about the rotation in the Dow that I think there's enough going on to say that one more very serious news related slump if we're going to get that at all. But if we get that I'm looking to lift the short position that we have and then start just looking at long side. We haven't got the yet. I just need this is a little bit more than I anticipated to move up. That's because of the rotation with Salesforce helping so much helping the Dow so much today. But in the meantime, a lot has happened. That's really important. And I know you talk about the dollar. The dollar is over. I haven't finished triple M. So triple M has 110 as the 200 period moving average. Look how fantastic it was as a repellent zone when it went to peak D in July. And now it's pulling back, but it's made a higher low. And that says if there is a higher high which would take it to leg C in the weekly, there's a turnaround and triple M has resolved lawsuits. There's a lot going on in the background with triple M. That's the reason why it just went from 208 in May of 2021 all the way down to the recent lows in the 1994 area. And this real test in the monthly chart of is it able to close for a second month for the first time in a year more than a year above that pink nine period moving average. And that's going to be important. It might not be this month because we're almost wrapping up today's action. I'm doing that in the monthly chart. A lot has to happen to get over 112 is 107. So I could see a new leg B in September and that will be important. And that's what I need to see this rotation of the very weakest in the Dow now starting to take a little bit of a leadership position, but triple M is in the S and P. So it really affects a lot of things. Yes. So the question just a question to look at triple M. I like it. If you are long triple M it's not a bad position at this particular point. It's 102. But in the meantime, if you're long, I would just say try to keep a cool position of where you entered. Have a trading position. I wouldn't put it on just yet. Let's give it into Monday today's only today's Thursday. That's going to maybe even Tuesday. If 100 if 105.80 is holding into Tuesday then I'm going to say to you maybe it's time that you could add a position. But if it starts to pull back quite sharply you've got to be somewhat careful to that. I like it. And if you're in a lower level, that's great because you can manage the risk to start a position. Now I just need a little bit more evidence after four sessions after a gap and closing way above the gap candle high. This is very positive action so far. So you could turn out that this is in that new leadership sector. Alright, so that's triple M question was, oh, so I was asked about JNK was that other one that I can't remember right now of hand also in the this is the called the spider. I usually write this down. I've done this for years and years and I keep losing that information. So let me just see what it says. This is the spider Bloomberg. I believe this is a high grade junk bonds called JNK is the symbol of JNK 249 up four cents today. Look how nicely it's just wiggling around the 200-period moving edge, but look at the weekly chart. This is holding very well when it's a junk bond. I mean junk bond I would have thought that by now it's down the 90 area but it's not as a 92 49. Yes, so the junk bond is in the middle of a range if at any point it starts to go above 90 93 20 on a weekly basis. That's going to be important because that yield will start to shrink. So yeah that's the way it is right now. Next question was high grade. I saw HDX HDX look at this. We were short told brothers we took a little bit of a loss and then it promises just all like immediately bam slumped look at this right and we were short of there and it came down sharp then a bouncer short short on the 4th of August yeah right there that's the 9th wait a minute is that correct yeah well it suddenly pulled back sharply then it bounced and then it plunged it was over here you're right then it plunged sharply down to the 74 level I mean from the 81s to 74 26 then it had a big spike gave it back and look where it is now and look at that weekly chart this is what I'm talking about you can think whatever you want look at the power of this 9 period if you were long told brothers we're not long but if you were long from this weekly crossover right here December the week of the 2nd of December 2022 let's go to the high instead of 49 45 73 let's go to 49 77 look at the move and it's still green and you're at 81 you didn't have to do anything on the weekly chart and the month is good you're just stepping aside it's holding really well with the rate going up like this and yet tall brothers are humbled there look at the HGX this is the Philadelphia housing the index not bad huh I'll be back 106 you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices for active stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave the Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox 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accessible on mobile or tablets as well so it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com or the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com educating investors Yes, so I'm just thinking here I think I can make make a free hour coming up so I think I'm going to do I'll do Steve's hour coming up and you know what we'll do we'll just just throw me as many symbols as you can and we'll just do them as quickly as possible as thoroughly as possible look at this 45-30 level is this important or is this how I said earlier in the day way earlier watch 45-30 that's our focal point look I had bounced to 45-30 in the email so yeah so that's what I'm going to do so in the next coming hour I'm just going to look at stocks and we'll go through whatever you want Apple, Amazon will do them I might even do them on a one-minute basis whatever it is just a little fun I'm going to be busy after that so maybe I'll just do that right now take the next hour to do the show because there are a lot of questions that I had and I haven't been able to get to them and there's one M-D-Y this is one that I follow oops typed it in the wrong place and then I also want to look at some other monthly charts that will be a good opportunity LegC and Monday.com will do a little bit more of it as soon as I return so let me just go through this real quickly here just to give a sum up what I'm looking at and for subscribing yeah for instance today I want it finally after all this time I wanted to buy hack Prime Cyber Security ETF security stocks it was right here at the 51 area and I wanted to buy it because I liked everything about it from the gap up it had more than four sessions to the upside above the gap made a low of 48.70 there's a 52.98 the first target was 52.86 it's above that this is a leg B I think this is actually a B monthly chart is a leg E I'll be back in a few moments I'll be taking on Steve's hour and I hope to listen to Mike and for devil doing our next break