 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern Time. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading. And believe it or not, folks, we got a little bit of red on the board. Nothing to be too alarmed about. You check out this acceleration, right? Usually, I'm kicking things off with a 15-minute chart, maybe a 5-minute chart, maybe a 10-minute chart. Today we're on a daily, because it just does not stop man yesterday. We make a high of $48.21 technically overnight, $48.24, we've backed off a bit. But I was looking at this morning, we're talking about almost a two-month trip to higher prices, and it's been a one-way trip. I mean, how much heat did you ever have to take in this rally? And you're talking about a rally that's 700 points in the S&P. And realistically, the biggest pullback you can find is about 50 to 60 points. I mean, this might be it, $46.07 down to $45.48, yeah, 59 points. What did we get on that first installment for a pullback? We got to a high of $44.13 and got down to $43.54, pretty similar, right? 60 to 70 points. It just keeps going. What I also found interesting is, when I was looking at this initially, you got the pullback from October 17th to October 27th, everything changed. The market takes off. The 1 to 1.618 expansion, you built a slight base there, but boy, we're going after the 1 to 2.618 expansion is $49.07. It's been a one-way trip. Not often does that level of the Fibonacci expansion show up on my charts, and there it is. And yeah, will it stop there? 5,000, 5,000, man, within 190 points of the S&Ps. And we just traded up 700 points. Dow, off by 43 right now. Let's get back to a 15-minute chart. So you see the acceleration last night. We make highs. Dow, 17,000. Excuse me, NASDAQ 100. NASDAQ 100, 17,000. Pretty remarkable, man. We're off by a quarter percent in the NASDAQ 100. You're off by about a quarter percent in the Dow. The Dow makes it to almost 50 points away from 38,000. Think about these round numbers we got coming. 40,000 in the Dow, potentially. 5,000 in the S&P. Those are some nice round numbers to quote our man, Basil Chapman, who's got an outstanding webinar coming up tonight for opening call subscribers. We'll talk about that later in the program. But folks, these subscriber webinars that all of our newsletter writers host do, I encourage you to sign up for their newsletter, go to the webinar. It's archived. You get Basil's outstanding opening call for a full month. You'll gain access to his update that he puts out for subscribers. This morning, of course, you'll get the newsletter for a month. You attend the webinar tonight. And the newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee. It's the best deal around, man. So check it out. If it's not for you, there's no shame. You know, people are like, oh, I'm sorry, it's not for me. When people cancel folks and they get a 30-day money-back guarantee, I'm the one saying thank you to them. Thank you for trying it, right? Basil's saying thank you for trying it. Thank you for attending my webinar. If it's not for you, I understand. I appreciate the opportunity. So feel no shame, man. Get in that webinar. If it's not for you, you cancel, you get a money-back guarantee. But I expect you will realize there is tremendous value to what Basil is doing tonight on that webinar. And it's so interesting, man. Basil was talking about, my dad was talking about last night on his show. He talked to Basil on his program yesterday. And my dad was talking about a firm. Now, a firm's got a deal going on. And it's pretty remarkable. I was looking at this chart. Man, you've got to go back. What are you having on a weekly? Yeah, a weekly. My goodness, it looked like a daily. From $176 to $8. Well, guess what, folks? If you were brave enough to buy that bottom, and boy, how do you catch a falling knife? But we're pushing $50 today. And what is Basil talking about? What is he talking about? Let's pull it up right now. Because I was listening to him last night. And it was so cool how it kind of coincided in terms of my dad talking about a firm, talking about it's trading higher on volume. You're getting that acceleration right now going on higher. $50.46. Today, you're up about $50 pennies. Now, the news on them yesterday is that they are doing a deal with Walmart. And they're going to offer pay-over-time service at Walmart's self-checkout kiosks. My dad said he was out there buying a pizza or something. And he had the option pop up. I mean, you're going to be at Walmart, Walmart. Unfortunately, lower on the socioeconomic totem pole as in people who don't have the ability to pay for it always right now. Seems like a firm might get some action there. Walmart, there's only one Walmart. But what Basil was talking about, what he is going to be talking about tonight, which was so cool how my dad talked about a firm. Look at this. And this is what could possibly, my dad's saying, ABC is everywhere, right? It is remarkable when you look at it. What can carry this market higher? There are a tremendous amount of stocks that have not participated in the all-time high rallies. Disney comes to mind. A firm comes to mind. There's too many to name, right? Sectors and stocks just coming off major 2023 lows. What was this thing trading at in 2023? $8.80. That was the low to kick off the week. We're at $50. Folks, check out Basil's webinar tonight. Sectors and stocks just coming off major 2023 lows, ready for even more upside action. That's a, yeah, this is one of those equities, man. Look at this equity coming off the lows, ready for even more upside action. Now, I don't know if he's going to be talking about a firm in the webinar tonight, okay? But I thought it was awesome how my dad was talking about a firm. He talks to Basil. That's a, yeah, check out this stock, man. You know, there are many stocks that have made these lows last year that are ready for even more. And coming off those lows, but boy, you look at that, right? Pretty remarkable. Disney, they don't have that acceleration just yet, man. Down from 203, just one of the stocks that comes to mind, making some pretty dramatic lows of 78. We'll see what Basil has to talk about tonight. His show, of course, is coming up next, but check him out, folks, tonight at four o'clock. That's going to be an awesome webinar, and I just think it sets up so well on the timing of things. So there's his webinar. The opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman. Sectors and stocks just coming off major 2023 lows, ready for even more upside action. You get 90 minutes with Basil tonight from Fortale 530. It will be archived, so check that out on the front page of TFNN.com and, hopefully, for all of you that got those Tiger Dollars out there, you can take those Tiger Dollars, apply them to Basil's opening call, subscriber webinar, and best part, you still get a 30-day money back guarantee, folks. If you're not into it, you don't think it's going to provide the value. Maybe you just don't have the time. Whatever it is, we refund the Tiger Dollars, you get to use those however you want going forward. So it's a good deal. Check that out. Tonight, four o'clock, our man, Basil. December 20th, folks, you got five days. Pretty remarkable. All right, what else have we got going on today? Let's see. Where are we going to kick things off? Let's kick it off with yields. Got one headline up there, 3.88. That's what I'm seeing on my charts, man. The yield on the 10-year, there's your five-minute basis. Chopping around a bit, but we are up by nine ticks at 112.23 right now. The yield on the 10-year, you put it back on a 15-minute. You see the acceleration last Wednesday, and yeah, we are dealing. Let me pull it up exactly right now. Oh, I lost myself a bit. Okay, I'll pull it up. I'm pretty sure we're sitting at 3.88 or 3.89% the yield on that 10-year. So much for 5%, and you put this thing on a daily, crossing the 618. That's quite a move away from that. Where are we going? Probably going to 116.18, man. And props to my dad for calling it, man. When this move started, it wasn't gonna stop. When they made that shift, when they hinted, when the futures went through the roof for swaps for the much cut, I have to recalibrate my brain talking about cuts versus hikes, right? We'll see where we go, but what do we got this morning, folks? We got lower yields coming at you. Jump over to the dollar index as we come into the 915 break. Dollar index, positive by about three pennies chopping around 102.20. How about the VIX? Well, 27 on the VIX. Mark with the negative territory. We're gonna talk about Wednesday. We'll take a look at some good news, drive with the open, we'll be right back. Tiss the season for leveling up your trading skills. Basil Chapman is happy to offer all opening call subscribers a free subscriber webinar Wednesday, December 20th, 4 p.m. to 5.30 p.m. Eastern. Basil Chapman will be discussing major sectors and stocks that are coming off their lows in order to prepare your portfolio for 2024. This is a free webinar for all opening call subscribers. If you are not yet a subscriber, visit the front page of TFNN.com today to secure your spot for Wednesday, December 20th. TFNN, educating investors. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability for 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Welcome back, folks. We have the market slightly in red territory. We're taking a look at Crude right now. Crude up a dollar, trading at $74.89 right now. You put this thing back on a daily basis. You see the acceleration off the lows. We make a low a week ago, $67.71. We'll be talking to our man, Teddy Kakesette, coming up at 40 past the hour today. In about 20 minutes, always a good conversation. We'll talk a little bit of Crude. Crude, $75 almost and you jump around. Pretty remarkable what's going on in terms of geopolitical across the world. So you got Red Sea, shipping risks, dog global trade, vessels shunning the Red Sea and that having to do with the US weighing whether to attack the Houthi rebels in Yemen and how that may impact things. Now you look at this, right? You're talking about, where was I reading it? Was it 14%? I was just reading this. The Red Sea is one of the world's most important shipping lanes carrying about 14% of global maritime trade and the industry is bracing for weeks without its most important trade route as the US and its allies consider military strikes against those rebels in Yemen. And they've been targeting commercial ships after a wave of attacks prompted a number of major companies to reroute their vessels around the southern tip of Africa. So what's it gonna be? Higher shipping costs, longer delivery times, driving up the price of goods. The chairman of apologize spit out his morning coffee and bringing a new inflation risk to the economy. There are still hopes that this diplomatic channels will be enough to prevent the closure. We'll see if that happens. You talk a little bit of inflation. We'll talk to our man Teddy about this as well. UK inflation slowing more than forecast, CPI in the UK, 3.9% the lowest since September of 2021, we'll jump over the pound in a moment but you get the pound falling as figures if you will hope for a pivot by the Bank of England. Now it's interesting. And Teddy always talks about this, man. So what's that doing to the pound? That's driving the pound lower. Okay, you drive from 127 down to 126. What's gonna happen? You're gonna have rates come down in the pound US dollar. You're gonna have a weaker pound. Excuse me. You're gonna have rates come down in the UK. You're gonna have a weaker British pound as a result and yeah, you drive down to 126. So we'll talk about some of that but it continues in the worldwide front. You jump over the dollar index and not as big of a reaction on that dollar index, right? Interesting. We jump over to the Euro US dollar. See how that's moving on some of that news. You see the volatility. We're kind of right back to where we were even last night, right back to almost where we were trading yesterday at about one o'clock and pretty much where we were about 24 hours ago for the Euro US dollar right now. Yeah, and look at how. It's pretty remarkable, man. So I was just pulling up. I mean, look at this Red Sea and Yemen, right? That waterway, the waterways. The waterways used to control the world, man, with trade. Not so much the case anymore but that's an important one. Keep your eyes on that one, man. When you talk about shipping, you talk about crude, you talk about inflation risks, et cetera. All right, what else have we got going on before we come in? We got nine minutes to go into the opening bell. Yeah, let's talk a little bit of FedEx. Why not? So FedEx tumbles lower last night. It's gonna cost more money. Shouldn't be surprising as they were talking about in the den last night, man. I was talking about that UPS deal yesterday. Just the perspective of that UPS deal and the numbers and how much money you actually need to provide a median quality of living almost right now. FedEx, you're gonna open down 30 bucks, man. That's a 10% drop. You drop immediately on the numbers to 260. You dropped to 239 this morning at 630. A little bit of volatility and a little bit of selling. 57,000 shares at 640 in the morning. We'll drive some of the action. You see, right? These are five minute bars. Most five minute bars prior to the market, you got 2,000 shares getting traded. You got 9,000, you got 4,000. 57,000 was a sell there at 251. You're sitting at 248 right now for FedEx. And we jump over to FedEx. Weaker demand here with the revenue outlook. Results fall short of estimates. Lower demand. Lower full year sales outlook. It's a tough one, man. Earnings for a share, 399 versus 418 revenue. They miss as well 2217 versus 2241, 22.17 billion, that is net income 900 million for that 90 days or 355 a share versus 788. Yeah, and they're gonna have some different. We'll see what happens, man. You have waning demand. We expect revenue to continue to be pressured by volatile macroeconomic conditions, negatively affecting customer demand for our services across our transportation companies. That should be startling. And it is to the market when you get a company like FedEx that's trading off 10%. Take a look at this thing longer term. Where are we open in 250 or so? I mean, all things considered. You started the year at almost 180. You're sitting at 250 even after these numbers. But be careful on this because this thing has some room, man. And if they're seeing something the market isn't seeing right now. Yeah, we're gonna open at 250. So all things considered, right? Keep your eye on that because they had some strong words, man. You gotta listen to those strong words because that's the last thing that people wanna say, man. For the remainder of the year, we expect revenue to be pressured, negatively impacting customer demand. I mean, we saw it. A demand problem is a big problem, folks. Tesla had a supply problem for a long time and yes, they had some cash crunches, but as long as it was a supply problem and there was always demand, there was never that big of a worry. Remember when Elon transitioned to price cuts across the board, they have a little bit of a demand problem right now. Otherwise, they wouldn't be cutting prices. That's spooked investors just a bit. FedEx, they have a demand problem and that's what they're telling you, man. UPS shares, they're gonna open down six bucks on that news. Yeah, there you go from 162 to 156 right now. And UPS, well off the highs at 233. And this is one of the interesting things, right? We are pushing remarkable highs right now, but it is again, driven by the biggest stocks out there, man. You got Apple shares, 196, 94 yesterday. We're off a bit. Let's see how some of the things, let's put it back to a five minute. Yeah, so we dropped a little bit lower last night. I think, what was that? Was that on the, I don't know. We got a little bit of a drop off last night from where we were just on negative market action from 196.80 to about 196.12. You can jump over to Nvidia shares. Nvidia makes a high of 504 on Monday. We're trading at 493 right now. You jump over to Microsoft shares. Man, Microsoft, they meant so strong. Microsoft trading at 374, just off the high of 384. Google. I mean, what happened to Google being the dog? They are pushing all time highs as well at 138.10. We jump over to Tesla shares. Tesla back a bit 256. We jump over to Walmart. I was in a Walmart yesterday. It is an interesting store. We'll say that. Great prices though, man. And in this environment, everyone's trying to save money. Man, everyone's trying to save money. We had this consolidation at the highs of 2020, right? You hit COVID hits. Walmart comes down to 102. You chop around for a bit from about 133 to 153 on Walmart shares. That might give you a little bit of a support area. Where's an area of... TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas. 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We've got markets open. You're looking at an S&P down by 10 points, trading at 48.10 right now. You're looking at an Aztec 100, negative by 38, Dow off by 99, the Russell off by 12. We jump over to yields right now. Take a look at the tenure. You're positive by seven ticks, but we give back some of that game. We were just trading at 112.25 or at 112.21 right now and jumping around on this story. I was checking out. So Bloomberg talks about the massive fund traders, excuse me, the hedge fund traders dominating a massive bet on bonds. And so what they're doing is, this is the basis trade, okay? It's a bet basically between the treasury price and the futures for those treasuries that are usually just off by a couple basis points. And they're clipping those couple basis points by using leverage that is sometimes 50 times the money they're putting up. They profit from the tiny price gaps between treasuries and derivatives known as futures, okay? 10 or so firms, 50 times what they invest themselves using leverage, using tens of billions of dollars into the trade to supercharge the returns. And what it talks about here is that these few firms, okay, estimate they account for roughly 70% of hedge fund basis trade bets, they're huge, okay? And what the market's a little worried about right now is that they are so big to the treasury market which has ballooned to a $26 trillion market, okay? That they threaten the orderly running of the treasury market if regulators crack down too hard. Think about the position you're in, right? You're already in a losing proposition. The whole point is to make sure that nobody is too large to fail, okay? Once they get there, then it's a problem. And it seems like this article saying they pretty much have gotten there. They crack down too hard and they could threaten the orderly running of the treasury market, go too easy and there's a threat of too much financial leverage building up at these hedge funds. The size of the trader's positions means the Fed may have to intervene if they hit trouble again. Because why? Because they're too big to fail. For a market that's necessary for the $26 trillion treasury market. Pretty remarkable. The gap is usually a mere fractions of a penny, only worth doing at scale and ramping up returns through the use of leverage. Yeah, pretty remarkable, man. But you wanna talk about how much money they make. Eight or fewer traders are behind almost half of all bets made against two year treasury futures. Four traders are left. Four traders or less account for one out of three dollars in that market. Just amazing, man. Now, who's defending that trade? Ken Griffin? You say not. I don't believe it. Defenders of the trade such as Citadel's Ken Griffin, the king market maker of all, says the enormous volume of buying and selling by hedge funds means they're helping the market stay efficient. True. Completely true. But the other side of that is that they're too big to fail. Banks used to perform this critical market making role to have retreated because of new leverage rules imposed after the financial crisis. So what happened? Banks got out of it. Hedge funds got into it. They're now the ones that are too big to fail and we're gonna have to bail them out if something goes wrong. And folks, when you're using 50 times leverage and you're using it to make fractions of a penny, you have to understand that there's always risks there. If it was free money, it would be free. It's not free. There's an outlier risk is what happens, right? And if that ever would have hit, it would be a problem, man. Yeah, look at this, man. One team generated $1.5 billion in profit in 2020 and that year's basis trade contributed a billion dollars alone, man. Yeah, and guess what? The 2020 episode may have fed a belief among some of the group that the central bank will always ride to the rescue. Market participants say there's an implicit fed put. That's the last thing you wanna hear, man. And then you talk about Lehman routes all the way. Gotta love it. And what they talk about, they link to this article, which is from last week, talking about that the SEC is gonna mandate to centrally clear US Treasury trades. They're gonna try and increase those regulations, but you see what's gonna happen here. They already let them get structurally important to the market and then it's very difficult to pull that back, as we know. Mortgage demand, slipping another drop in despite another drop in interest rates. Maybe there's just a little bit of lag here. That would be my anticipation because boy, it's just gonna keep going, man. 6.83%, you kidding me, man? 6.83, we might see 6.5 before you know it. We might see six. We just dropped from above 5% in the 10 year to 3.89, something like that. Yeah, so keep your eye on that one, but nonetheless, you get a little bit of a pullback. 6.83% is the number of points increasing to 0.6. That's with the loan putting down 20%. Applications to refinance a home drop 2% for the week, 18% higher from the same week one year ago. And for a mortgage to purchase a home declined 1% for the week, 18% lower. That's gonna change with these interest rates, man. There's no way it's not. It's too big of a move. It impacts the monthly payment too large to not see anybody on the edge saying, you know what, we're close enough. I feel like we're still gonna go down. I can always refinance. In worst case scenario, I'm in at 6.8% right now. Better than 8%, man. So the mortgage association expects its mortgage origination volume to increase 22% in 2024 to $2 trillion with a 14% rise in purchase volume and a 56% jump in refinance demand. Now I always say it, percentages on small numbers can be deceiving. Refinance demand has been extremely low for obvious reasons. So yes, the percentage rise is gonna be dramatic once we get a reprieve possibly from these high rates. All right, what else are we gonna jump to here? Yeah, we talked a little bit of UK inflation. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad in about five minutes coming up after the next break. So we'll take a look at that. And we got the S&Ps off about seven. Let's see how some of the equities are moving this morning making news. We jump over to FedEx shares. They claw back some of those losses, but still down 10%. Double digit loss, $28.36 is what they're trading to the lower off 10% on the dot right now. We jump over to UPS shares. They almost get it all back, only off 1.4%. So the market thinks that FedEx has a problem, man, versus even UPS. With that said, we took a look, right? UPS has been trading lower, man. UPS started off the year at 178, we're at 158. FedEx started the year off at 180, we're at 250. A little bit of a different story there in terms of where they are in their trading patterns. The S&Ps, we're at all time highs. You gotta love it. Tim was talking, my dad was talking to Tim Ortt yesterday too and they were talking about that Christmas rally, the Santa Claus rally. I mean, we're coming into the end of the year, man. Gonna be interesting to see how this market reacts when we reach the first, after the first. Is anybody waiting for tax selling here? Not as much of an incentive to get out of the market right now when you're only getting 3.8% versus a free 5%. So what do you do? You keep it at stocks, you go to a little fixed income, you take some of those profits after the first of the year to delay your taxes, we will find out. All right, as we come into the break right now, we're gonna jump to some of the action in a pound. Yeah, they're clawing it back a little bit as well. 126.72 right now in the pound. We got crew trading higher, 75, 21. Stay tuned folks, we're coming back with our Antenna cake stat. We'll talk some more, talk some commodities, we'll go in, right. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's End, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's End, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's End, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's End at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit Direction Investments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, four-side fund services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. We got the S&Ps off by about five points right now. We'll catch a little bit of a bid on the open. We got the S&Ps down by five. We're trading at 48.14. We jump over to the Dollar Index, DXY. Trading right now, basically flat. We pull back a bid on the open, 102.22, to talk about some of the market action in forex and commodities. Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Folks, you can check out Teddy's outstanding Tiger Forex report. He's got new issues every Monday, updates throughout the week when warranted. That's right under the newsletter tab at TFNN. He's got a couple of outstanding webinars that you can check out on the services tab as well. We're coming into the holiday season. You might have a couple extra days. Maybe your home just relaxing. Don't forget about those. Head on over to TFNN. You can check out those webinars right under the services tab. Teddy Kegstad, quite a market we got going on. Good morning. Absolutely. Where would you like to start? Oh boy. You wanna start with yields? We talked a little about the 10 year last week. We're under 3.9%. And it looks like it's not stopping anytime soon, man. What do you think of the market action? And yeah, let's start there if we could. Sure, sure. Well, I like the right now where we're at right now as far as with the yields. I think that obviously yields are gonna be a very big topic with what's going on with England as well. So, but I think right now our numbers, like we've been talking about this are, even though they're tracking in the direction where they want it to be, now they're talking about a soft landing and what have you. Remember that the original plan by the Fed was for us to have a recession. Even though we all Americans will say we've been in one, they said we have not been in one. So for us to have a soft landing, a soft landing isn't what they're looking for for one. Unemployment still I think is way too low for their original targets. They're looking, they want higher unemployment. So unless they're really going to shift their narrative and their strategy, which is what the original set out to do their premise, I think that we're still on, we're gonna holding pattern with them. I think we're hitting the extremes. Do I think yields can go lower overall? I think that's gonna be the trend with the election year, but I still think we still have a chance of getting them popped yet, one more time. I think that the news is trying to force the Fed's arm and I'm sure that there's a lot of pressure from the government as well to like at least stop raising rates for the next like six to eight months at least or even more going into the election, I would think. So, but the question is, are they gonna hold firm? And I think we still have to watch the numbers. There's a lot of things that could cause inflation to come spiking back again. So, I mean, what happens with, I mean, this thing that's going on in Yemen with crude, we touched on this a couple of weeks ago. Remember, when a couple of weeks ago, I said, did you just hear about this, these ships that have been attacked? And just yesterday alone, you had five or six of the major shipping companies that go through that area say they are no longer going to go there at all. I mean, that's kind of a big deal. I mean, I don't know how many companies run major shipping out there, but I know that when it comes to that area of the world, it's not that many. So, if they're not gonna go there, what does that do to international trade? You know, you're gonna see a lot of disruptions on a commodity scale especially. And that's gonna affect the currency markets as well. Yeah, some like 14% of global maritime trade or something like that, which is just a remarkable number, swings around that corner. And yeah, it seems like it's a business, right? They're sending employees around there and I think it probably reached the point. Being on those ships, imagine, they're people, they got families, man, they're employees at some point, it probably just reached that point, right? Where it's like, man, the company's probably even just from a liability perspective at some point, just too dangerous and yeah, pretty remarkable. And we know geopolitical tensions, man, they can cause some headaches and we got crewed up to 75. Maybe that's a headway, segue to crude. I got crewed up here. A little bit of a rise on some of that geopolitical risk, but maybe just a little bit of a reprieve of the pullback we got. What do you think of crewed at $75 right now? I, you know what, actually, from the Tiger Forex report, I had crude going up into the 75, just over a $75 mark for the upward correction off the lows. That's a key area. If this trend is gonna remain the trend and hold the channel, then we should see the market sell off from this area over the next couple of sessions or at least start to go sideways. If we can sustain a trade above 75, that breaks the channel of the current downtrend and that puts us into what could be a big range trade, where we established a low. I was saying already for weeks that I think that this lower, it's about $70 is about as low as you're gonna see in the oil market. I think you're gonna see a big range trade, especially between 70 and 90 over the next probably four to five months as we get through the winter time. But things like this could spark something totally different. Because now how does that oil get to places like Israel? Then you have cost to carry that gets affected. Then you have inventory builds up, build ups. So short run, could it be bearish oil? Absolutely. I wouldn't be too quick to jump on a major bull bandwagon, but we don't know how these tensions are gonna rise. Yemen is just one spot. If it keeps on growing, historically revolutions, they spark and they go global. Doesn't matter what period of history you're in. And right now we're in a major revolutionary period globally and it seems that fire, that spark is not going away. And I think that if that's the case, if history proves that way, that we're gonna be in for a lot more of this kind of turmoil in the Middle East and around those areas. Most people don't think how that affects our trade, but it really does. And it's gonna affect yields, it's gonna affect currencies, it's gonna affect commodities, which is good for us as traders. But I like when we have trends that are established because of better reasons and more. So, honestly. Yes, for sure. And then you throw in that, those are Iran-backed rebels, right? So it's like we know Iran gets in the mix that causes some possible escalations, for sure. Sure, sure. You wanna talk a little bit about the UK and their inflation? Because we got the pound for the women today, that was out last night, right? And how that plays into things. Looks like they got some lower numbers as well, kind of jiving what's going on here so far, at least for the meantime. Yeah, and that plays into, with the Tiger Forex support, I mentioned how last week's high was kind of a critical area. So I have that as an upside breakout level to keep the trend going, which right now is more of a correction. They've been rallying since October, we haven't had any really severe pullbacks, okay? But now we have a fundamental reason for the trend to change because the Bank of England is not gonna be on a raising basis, obviously. Are they gonna be quick to start cutting rates? Well, that's a whole nother question. Are they gonna be ahead of us? I would believe so. So I think that the narrative alone is enough to kind of put us where right now you've probably seen in a cap in the pound US dollar and I'm not trying to click the top from last week. However, I would say that the 125.95 area, 126 even area in the pound, that's a big directional area. So I think we could see a dip below that, chop around that, because we're heading into the holidays. So be cautious over the next week and a half, two weeks. It could take until January for things to really start moving again. But I could see us get below that area and then probably get down to the 124 to 12320, 2330 area for a correction. And that would be just the correct to move off of the current uptrend. So that would be like a nice technical sell-off area. Now, if the trend changes fundamentally, then that would be the area if we fall below that. Well, look out below, baby, we're gonna see a real big trend move down to the downside in the pound, US dollar. So, and that could see us down at the 120 level, 118 area, which I think is very, very plausible. And that's without us continuing to raise rates either. This is just by us not doing anything. So, and I think that that's, if there's gonna be a mark at the trade, look for some big swings in the pound for sure over the next four or five months. The Euro, I think it's gonna be a little bit tighter of a trade though, so be cautious with that. Nice. Man, yeah, in that 118, that's where we're on March. So it's not bonkers. Pretty remarkable the volatility in that pound dollar. Teddy, I appreciate it as always, man. Have a great Christmas, have a great weekend. Merry Christmas to all you guys. Merry Christmas, man. We'll talk to you next week, okay? Thanks. Okay, have a great one. We'll be right back, folks. Stay tuned. Test the season for leveling up your trading skills. Basil Chapman is happy to offer all opening call subscribers a free subscriber webinar Wednesday, December 20th, 4 p.m. to 5.30 p.m. Eastern. Basil Chapman will be discussing major sectors and stocks that are coming off their lows in order to prepare your portfolio for 2024. This is a free webinar for all opening call subscribers. If you are not yet a subscriber, visit the front page of tfnn.com today to secure your spot for Wednesday, December 20th. T-F-N-N, educating investors. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs with the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. 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The Opening Call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns. Finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices, get the Opening Call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com Educating Investors The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At tfnn, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets, tfnn newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Just visit the Newsletters tab on the front page of tfnn.com tfnn Educating Investors Don't forget, you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Folks, we got the S&Ps. They're trying to turn green the whole market. NASDAQ 100 is trying to turn green as well. We're back above 17,000. NASDAQ 100, you got the S&Ps off by just three points. Counted them during the break and we've only had nine red days since this market took off in October. Only nine red days. Pretty remarkable when you put it that way. Now, that's red bars, which have the low to the high, the open to the close. I'm not sure if maybe we got some higher opens, etc. that turned into red or what it not, but nonetheless, man, even today, even today's candle. Oh, no, that's not today. What is that? How did that happen? Yeah, today's candle is slightly in the red, but you're talking about nine days. Pretty remarkable. Even that run that we've had since December 7th. No red days until today. Excuse me, December 7th. Last couple of weeks, no red days since that acceleration. Pretty remarkable. And yeah, we'll finish it up with this one. Why not? 100 container ships, man, talking about that red sea out there. Now, Bloomberg's got out there. I think it was an opinion piece, is it? No, it was their energy daily newsletter. I guess I was reading earlier. One of their newsletters, the red sea oil panic is overblown despite the waterways renewing importance. Global crude flows may not be hit nearly as hard as feared. That one's out this morning by Julian Lee, not familiar, but nonetheless, 100 container ships, man, rerouted. Oil prices are rising as ships avoid the key transit route. And the US is talking to allies about how to prevent those rebel attacks that are backed by Iran. So watch out for that one. Watch out for crude. And don't forget, folks, Basel Chapman's coming up next. You got three minutes until he does the 10 o'clock update. Head on over to the front page of TFNN. You'll see the opening call of a subscriber webinar tonight. You heard him, man. Sectors and stocks just coming off major 2023 lows ready for even more upside action. I listened to him yesterday, listened to him on my dad's show last night. I can't wait to see what kind of equities he has out there. Coming off those major 2023 lows and ready for even more upside action. Sign up, folks, for Basel tonight. Listen to his program. Coming up next, talk to you tomorrow.