 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the power trading hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now David White. Welcome all to another excellent edition of the power trading hour. As we come to you at this time, it doesn't matter where you're at, even if you're standing on your head and loots, we'd love it when you're here at the appointed time. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. So wow, did we have a dip and a repair of that dip fairly quickly. I'm not as sanguine as some on this bounce here. Generally on options rollover, you get one day down and one day up and everybody jumped on this just pretty much instantly. And I wanted a little bit of different action out here. It doesn't mean that not going higher, it just means that I'm thinking that generally the pattern for finding a low in bear markets is a little different than this. So I'll go back to even a stop clock is right once a day or twice a day if it's a 12 hour clock and not a 24 hour clock. But anyway, even a stop clock is right a couple of times a day. There's some technicians out there that came up with a thing called the Elliott Wave. I think the guy's name is Brechter. And I went through it and tried to figure out how you could do anything like test it and it's not. It's kind of a vague ethereum kind of thing. It's out there in the cloud and the rules are this and that and the other and no, you can't really program it. So the rules are varied and I think I bumped into him once at a trading show and he said something. I just asked him a question. He said something. I said, my response was a formula that can mean anything means nothing. Well, I mean, I understand that he's probably not horrifically bad at trading, but the rules are something that you at least have to kind of know what the percentages are. And it's kind of tough when I when I look at that, anyway, went through spent a lot of time and effort. Most traders give up on it after a while. There was one thing that I found very interesting and did find that rang true though. And this goes to the clock being right twice a day. He had a thing where he called the rule of alternation. And this rule was that if the markets go in a straight line from top to bottom or bottom to top about 80% of the time, the next move is going to be a lot more complex. I kind of call it the drunkards walk, although some people have a slightly different meaning than that. Their meaning for the drunkards walk is that there's no forecasting the market. You just have to sit through good and bad times. I call those people imbeciles. But certainly the the people that are the idea of that looking at a straight line down as we pretty much had and then we bought them. Should we look for something that's just straight back up and it looks like a V when you look at the chart back and you know on a weekly or longer time frame now, I don't think so. Generally, you don't get that. As we said, you came down on a lot of energy. As we said also yesterday, we had that selling climax. We had a lot of volume down at the lows. That means that we're probably going to come back eventually and retest that low. But in the meantime, could we have a meaningful bounce in the market that we had all that volume? Couldn't take out the lows. Maybe that meant that some of that volume was buyers down there at the previous low. Doesn't matter. Anyway, in my idea, the drunkards walk, I always think of Otis from Mayberry and Mayberry RFD. I don't know if he was in the second one. I remember he was in the first one. Anyway, he'd wander all over town, but eventually he made it back to his bed in the jail and had his own key. I guess they didn't even lock up the police department. He just knew where to go, and if they were at home, he'd just go lock himself up in the drunk tank. But you never know the path or getting there. You know where it's going, and that's the way I'm at here. I think we've got a drunkard's walk higher, and that's the way I think of the rule of alternation. That is, if it comes down straight, then the bounce, the counter trend move, whatever it could be, could be a lot more chaotic than the kind of straight moves down that you had or what feels like a straight move down. But that's just one of the things out here. Anyway, I kind of like it when one day's up and one day's down for options rollover. There is a bigger correlation with both days up of options rollover, the two days after. Much like I talk a great deal about options expiration, that whole thing is kind of an organic thing that moves the market. Totally no to a good percentage, all things being equal. If the volume's up and the volume's down, it's the same. The signals up and the signals down are the same. Options show a great deal of correlation with the market moving. So anyway, we talk about that Wednesday the week before is Delta Neutral Day. Then each day kind of focuses in a little bit more, generally the Wednesday before the actual expiration or two days before the Friday expiration. You get a little bit more and they tighten those up. They're always continually adding a little here and pulling back a little bit there. But part of Delta Neutral is going long or short the opposite side of your trade and that has to be cleaned up each month depending on what's out there. And generally that is cleaned up and that's if you're long, if you've got a put or you've got a call, generally you go long or short the opposite side. You're not going to get blown out if the market goes to zero tomorrow or if it doubles in price, probably not as big a chance of that happening. But certainly the kind of big moves out here that can wipe you out for option market makers, they're always hedged. Now they have that problem where they can't get out of everything the Thursday or Friday or even Monday or Tuesday after. And of course being closed on Monday, it's a little bit bigger of an issue. But as I said, the correlation of both days up are generally the next day down. So I'm thinking that we get some kind of consolidation going here. It's probably 3,700 at the low, maybe 3,800 or so at the high. A good question that Dan from DUDET about whether or not we get a move in this market just to test the spines of those that bought. And see if they're livid, or livid, spineless weasels. Or if they have the courage to sit through. Look back at them. Time of booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect the harder and money-thinning gold. Vista Gold's flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in Northern Territory of Australia. 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David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges at which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find a path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit TFNN.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Take the path of least resistance at TFNN Educating Investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's daily market newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. As we come back, I had an email about the rule of alternation. I found a web page that described it, so you've got that. So anyway, give you a better idea. It's just you go up and you get a straight line. A lot of times in a bull market, this is what it is. And that is that you get these real straight lines up and then a lot of little ABCs on the way down. And then you finally make a low and then you go straight back up again. And of course, this is the alternate, too. If you're coming down on straight lines, you end up with kind of a more. And he's got some other rules out here that he says, but I think they're kind of stretching what actually happens a bit. It's just if you get a real big move by and generally this is down to the downside, you get a lot more of these complex moves before you get everything else. So I'm suspecting that we're just the opposite of this bull move I'm showing. Does he have it? No, doesn't have anything else out here. But if you want to link on this rule of alternation thing, just give me an email at path at tfnn.com. And no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Now, okay, go back here and get some other stuff. Okay, just going through the emails real quick here. Okay, I think I got that. It's new. Just going through the questions. Okay, 877-927-664, email me at path at tfnn.com. Yes, the other big alternation is deep correction is sideways 38. Yeah, you can kind of say that. It's just more about whether or not every single day is up on triangles and the flats. There's a little bit of that. But generally the thing when I was learning that was the most value to me early on listening to the folks at TFNN at that time in 1998, 1999 guests, Tom, some of the other folks that hung around was understanding the story that was unfolding in the market. And if you listen close, there is kind of a story. And a lot of times if you buy too much into the story problematic and if you avoid the story kind of problematic, but you kind of need to give it a fairly decent weight. But that story is always whether everybody thinks that things are good getting better or bad getting worse. There isn't a whole lot of middle ground in the stock market because it's not a lot of reasons just to hope a stock goes sideways. I mean, maybe if you're just collecting dividends, but that's about it. So we end up being kind of a manic depressive bunch. As I said, kind of things getting better or good getting better or bad getting worse. There's not a whole lot of medium side, but there's a lot of people that think that even though it's bad, probably getting worse, there's got to be a morning after. I wish I could play that stuff and YouTube wouldn't flag us, but I could do a wonderful montage of there's got to be a morning after with a Poseidon adventure and all the other design, the other disaster movies of the 70s, but we'll see. What does the short interest look like after the last few days? Well, it hasn't been blowout. Let me pull up my spreadsheet on that. Normally I put out the highs, but it's big, but it's not as big as one would think in the past, but we'll see. But yeah, normally I start seeing 40 and 45% on stocks like Apple and Advice, Advanced Micro, and I know some things up. If they're just after AMD for one out of every three shares being sorted during the day, that's kind of different. But yesterday was the first kind of day that it picked up. It had been around 23%, but you can look at other companies, but the ones that they tend to be after, they'll be 30% or something like that. So in AMD today, we're up, let's call it one and a half percent, other stocks that are perpetually chased are in Vidya. And then as we said yesterday, Micron, there's a lot of these stocks that have a, again, the story hanging over them. I don't know if it's reality. In the short term, a lot of times the story's way will hold sway in the market. But do you get anything really going on with any of these semis so far? And we covered this yesterday with just the thought, not the reality, that a great deal of these Bitcoin miners are going to be flooding the streets with video cards and maybe computers and maybe a lot of other stuff. The problem is that people that use video cards that aren't in the third world tend to be using them for two things. And that's machine learning and video games. So you kind of have to think now the problem is that being good at either one of those means that you kind of have to have the latest arms to do something with. And the thought is, yeah, you could have a pretty decent gaming rig. Could you have a competitive gaming rig? The answer is no, if you're not fairly close to the last. Also, those video cards, if they were in mining operations, are probably massively burnt up. If they last a year, that may be a surprise. So maybe there's a great dip out here in video card land and machine learning, GPU business. I think, well, we already have the dates now for AMD and Nvidia and some of the others to launch the next wave of video cards and what I've been waiting for, for a variety of reasons. Mostly, I need as much for tackling the stock market. When I first started going after it, I think I had four gigabytes on the video card. I got eight gigabytes on the video card I have now. You could go out and buy one with about 12 gigabytes today for a little bit more money. The one that I need is about four grand today. And I'm thinking, well, the interesting part is that if I wait just a couple more months, I'll probably still pay four grand. But the card's gonna have twice as much memory and be twice as fast for machine learning stuff in the stock market. So I will continue to kind of wait until September. And even then, maybe that depresses the current card prices down a little bit. But these cards are gonna be even more expensive than the old ones. The margins should be through the roof. The question is whether or not in a economic holdback, whether we'll see the same people throw in the same money at these high and many more. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency in bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. Tfnn hosts a variety of professional traders during market hours. Now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. 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It is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. As we come back, as the e-mail turns, as we go through it. So, yeah, there's a question in the den, which is kind of a good one. In a recession, are institutions more likely to buy consultants, software stocks like CRM and Adobe? If they think the B-chopping heads in a recession, well, certainly it's a lot easier to cut off somebody like CRM or Adobe. But I think when you look at CRM, they are a great deal different than Adobe. In my book, anyway. Although the chart looks pretty good for CRM. I'm just saying that the competitive landscape for CRM is very problematic. They're trying to go up against Amazon Web Services and Google Web Services and Microsoft Azure. And it is getting tougher by the day for these folks. Now, chart-wise, actually one of the better charts on coming back down with light volume from the June 9th high. The downside is you busted the previous low yesterday with 13 million shares that had 10 million shares. You didn't quite get there either, but you got into that candle that had 10 million shares. So I'm not overwhelmingly bullish on this, although you could get a nice bounce just from the lack of volume off the top. So on a trade basis, maybe 178.1, 179. That's kind of the top of this gap down from the 13th. Unfortunately, right now, you have to chew through this 172 level on CRM. Now, Adobe, a complete different story, mostly because they don't sell really consulting services. They sell software on subscription, mostly for people that are in the creative part of web development, YouTube, that kind of stuff. And there's a lot more individuals that are, as they leave the workforce, will go out and try to make their own living, making content themselves. But again, one of the things that makes me think we are gonna come back and retest some of these lows is just the energy on most of the stocks off this June 2nd high. Adobe, it came down with about 20, 25% more energy than the leg up from May 12th to June 2nd. And then you came down. Now, the other thing is there's still a handful of these stocks that are just barely back up to resistance that have high volume lows, and they already have two gaps in. So for Adobe, I'd want to get that third big gap lower. A lot of the stocks have already done it and bottomed out. Adobe may be one of these where you want to wait and see what happens on the next gap down. And those gaps look like maybe 12, 15 bucks. Oh, what was that here? Okay, so the close, 393, the next day. Yeah, it was like 20 bucks on that one from the 13th. So yeah, you're looking for something like 15, 20, 25 points. What you really like is when you get the last one and it's bigger than the previous two on a three-gap play. But as we said, there were a ton of stocks that had three-gap play. You got the third gap. You turned around on that. Now we're kind of in a market that is getting a little tougher. Question about volume from Ron and what it's doing right now. We're doing about 8 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated tape. If you want to look and see the best representation of volume in the market, it is delayed 20 minutes. But it is from the CBOE. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. I'll be glad to send you the link. But it's what I look at, even though it's delayed, it is split up so miraculously well. And of course it not only has the volume data, but it also has the dollar or what they call the nominal value. And I use that to tell the difference between a lot of volume where big caps are out there and you see big dollar volumes and a lot of volume and low dollar. I mean, not a lot of volume or actually say this again. A lot of volume but not a lot of dollar volume means that a lot more of that action was in the smaller cap stocks. You can also infer how much is from the dark pool. If you add the numbers up and I do that too. And that tells me when the guys on Wall Street are very active because they are the ones trading in those dark pools throughout the day. And that percentage when it's normally around 30 tells you that all the actions from the retail at home game trader when you get to about 35%, maybe 36%, that's generally a pretty good indication that that dark pool is mostly active with the big men of the street. 877-927-6648, e-mail, what is it? Path at tfnn.com. But that's it. And I'll just put it in the den. I don't know if that's what the person is looking for but we'll do it. Okay, see what else we've got going on here. A couple more emails coming in with questions. Okay, take a look at Microsoft. You said you like Microsoft better on the web services part. I do. But this is another one of these. A lot of these big caps came down and had high volume. And that's where these things are probably going to come back down and test this one on Microsoft's 241. 51 with 46 million shares. You exceeded the previous low that had about 39 million shares from May 20th. That was at 246. So you busted it. You were out there for just a little bit. But if you bust it with more volume, are you more than likely to try to come back? You may not get all of it. But I'd still say that if you were looking to go long, Microsoft, 246, maybe 247, maybe in that range, maybe 248-ish, there's that double gap inside a gap. And my guess is that you could easily kind of come back there in a pullback. And light volume there is probably where I would want to go long. Oh, now we got five. Okay. TLT, where we have out here. Well, you got what some people would say is an abandoned baby yesterday or a shooting star if it was on the top. But it's hard for me to get that excited. As we've said, this is about 1,1375. See what the low of that day was here. 1,1377, I got pretty close to it, is where you're going to probably have very strong resistance. You had five days before the thing fell apart on the 13th in the bond market. Now you're just getting up there. When you came down, you had 37 million shares. Today you're doing about 13 million shares. So you're running into resistance and you don't have a lot of juice. My guess is if you're thinking higher, then you're going to have to have some consolidation before much else goes on. Okay. And let's see. Let's see. There we go. Let me just get those done while we're here. So everybody, okay. Oh, we're going to break anyway. So we'll be back. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area? Including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets, Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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I have a very simplified question for you. So every once in a while, I'll come across a chart that's very gappy, like most ADRs are like that. So when I come across a chart like that, and I see there's just gaps all over the place, I just ignore them. And, you know, if it's in one normal stock that has smooth price action and the gaps are fewer and further between, I respect those gaps. I look for them to fill if they're in my path to a target, you know, set my target with respect to the gap, things like that. And I was wondering if maybe you knew of a better way to handle a gappy chart than to just ignore the gaps? Well, you could buy the Art of Timing trade charts in which I wrote a routine in here to look for statistically top moves in gaps, i.e., so you're not looking at a million little gaps, but looking at the biggest one. There's a great part in Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Tileb, and when I read it, it really kind of hit me like a ton of bricks, but he was talking at that time, this is 2003, about the size of a signal and what a signal should mean to you as a technical trader or as just anybody that's a data scientist or a statistician. But he brought up the point back then, it's different now, that a lot of people think that a 500-point move in the Dow compared to, let's say, a 900-point move in the Dow is that twice the signal or almost twice the signal on a daily basis. Let's say you get a 900-point move opposed to the day before on a 500-point move, is that, should you treat it as twice as much, one and a half times as much, what do you think from just your gut? Well, that's an interesting question, I never thought about that. I would probably try to do it proportionally, you know, if it was a 40% bigger signal, I would expect a 40% bigger move. I don't know if that's true, I haven't thought about it or studied it. Well, it's not. In 2003, a 500-point move in the Dow compared to a 900-point move in the Dow, a 900-point move that year would have been four times the signal of a 500-point move if you wanted to weigh it out there. So they are logarithmic, right? Because you're going to get a lot of 100 and 200-point moves in the Dow now, right? So at what point does something actually become an outlier? And you can do it on proportion, but it has a lot to do with just understanding that the larger the move compared to the average, you know, if you're looking at like average true range and then start seeing a bunch of other moves, they are far more, should be far more weighted in any kind of mechanical system, and they all are in the black boxes that run Wall Street for the bots and everything else. A lot of that stuff is well-documented in books on short-term trading. But certainly a, you know, inner-day, a 20-cent move on a five-minute bar compared to a five-minute, I mean a nickel move in a five-minute bar is not just three times as much. It should be probably about 15 times the signal. So just remember, they're logarithmic or exponential depending on how you want to think about it. They are not linear or even just straightforward multiplications of the smaller move. So what I did in- So what I'm hearing is if you're looking at a kind of a gaffy chart with a lot of gaps, just look at the biggest gaps and respect those and the other ones maybe not so much. Generally, yeah, especially in ADRs, the easiest way is, like in the art of the chart, I just wrote it so that I took the ones that are statistically meaningful, right, and throw away the other ones. So there's at least some level, you know, you have the understanding of what a noise floor is. Well, I know the concept of a noise-to-signal ratio, I'm not sure what a noise floor is. It's kind of that. Is that the ambient background? You got it. That's it. If you're just sitting there on a film set, you kind of record the ambient noise when nothing's going on, and that's kind of where you know the beginning of the noise begins. Everything below that's got to be by default noise in the rest of its signal. It's an interesting book, The Signal and the Noise, by the guy that runs the 538 website or 385. I can't remember what it was. But there is a lot to that signal and the noise. What's that? Was that the title of the book, The Signal and the Noise? Yeah, it's kind of an interesting one. I can't remember the guy that, and interestingly enough, Nate's signal, oh, this is a summary. You can buy a summary of it for six bucks, or you can buy The Signal and the Noise actually from Nate Silver on here. But he's got a pretty good book on understanding noise. Unfortunately, he didn't listen to himself. It was incredibly bad at predicting the 2016-11 election. It was off by 20%. So the hardest thing to do in these kind of things is follow your own advice. But that's an interesting book on understanding some of that. But for the most part, it's just standard statistics. I'm very helpful. It's interesting. I wrote down that title. The bulk of those gaps are not going to be meaningful. And if you can collect some statistics on the range of most of the gaps, then when you see something bigger than that, that's something to pay attention to. Well, that's part of it. And here's another thing you might want to think about. I can't pull. Have you ever heard of the 80-20 rule? Sure. Some people call it the Pareto rule. That's exactly what it is. And if you look at the top of my newsletter each morning, there is the little red curve. That is it. So you probably want to be looking at the 20% of the biggest gaps and ignoring 80% of the small ones. Because that's generally the way it's going to work out. So that's another way to think about it. A lot of times they're not there. But when I talk about three-gap plays and stuff, I mean, when I talk about them, everybody has a little gap there, a little gap there. No, I'm talking about big monster gaps. I mean, 2%, 3%, 5% of the stock price. And you get three of those. And those are pretty good. But a lot of people will look at them and then they'll go and get a little gap that didn't do much. And they'll add that back in there and act too soon. But I kind of like gaps. But if you've got big ones, they are big signals, just like 500 points to a 900 point move in the Dow. So when you're thinking about it and you're weighing those things in for your trade, just remember, bigger is not just a double, or even a time and a half, it's logarithmic. So we'll be back in a minute. Thank you, Dave. That was great. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. 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And that is that you take all the indexes and subtract that volume from the total volume. And then you're going to see the dark percentage. And that's why I was kind of looking for a big pop on Friday. We were down below 30% of the volume being part of Wall Street traders. And so it's just a subtraction thing. Subtract all the NYC, AMEX, NASDAQ, and other stuff out of it. You're going to find what's left has to be by default in the dark pools. So there it all is anyway. Anyway, the question was about how all the stuff works. You know, I'll probably just do 10 minutes on it tomorrow. It's probably the best way. And give me a chance to think about it, because this is a little bit complex. And once I wrote the software to do it automatically, I pretty much forgot how all of it works. So I'll have to go back and look at it. But that's basically the way out here. Another question was take a quick look at the IBB, which we will do. Okay. And you got to bounce. Volume's okay. You're right back up to the previous gap lower. And the bottom of the ninth there was 113.98. You got to 119.80. So you kind of into that candle, which is a nice move. About 10 point move from the lows out here. I think we were talking about the lows kind of coming in, at least much lighter than the May 11th or 12th low. So we had them. So actually looks kind of good. Again, I'm thinking we need to go back a little bit solid eight. I'm not thinking we just go straight from here. So keep an eye on it. We'll be back tomorrow. We'll do a little bit of special on how volume works and all the different places all you come from with the market because we do talk about it. So when you can, not when you have to, we'll be back tomorrow.