 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the Disclosures. General Disclosure. All Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk Disclosure. Trading futures, equities, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the Options-Doug chat channel and Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning, and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned to the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution, and I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in SpotGamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And I will be talking about setups today in underlying assets, and those setups can be taken in any number of ways with futures, shares of stock, or options. Questions and comments are welcome, and I will be watching both the Options-Doug chat channel and Discord and the chat in YouTube for your questions and comments, so please feel free to post your questions and comments. My agenda for today, what I want to talk about, news items, economic data, and events for today, what came out today as well as the rest of the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis, and then I'll review a couple setups from this morning, and then we can take a look at the live market. And if anybody has any stocks that they want me to take a look at, I will be glad to do that. All right, let's get started. First of all, news items. Today there were several economic data items released. First of all, durable goods at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time, and that was better than expected and better than the previous number. And then consumer confidence was also better than at 10 a.m. was better than expected and better than the previous release. And then for the rest of the week, Jerome Powell speaks tomorrow, I believe at 9.30 a.m. Eastern time, and apparently he is speaking from Europe. And then also on the Thursday morning at 2.30 a.m., so for sure he is in Europe, he will be speaking again. And then Thursday a.m. GDP comes out at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time, and then finally on Friday, probably the big report for the week other than Powell speaking, is the PCE report at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m., and then finally the JPMorgan collar roll at the end of the month. All right, so those are the news items for today and the rest of the week. So let's get started with the positional analysis now. And the first thing I want to do is take a look at the S&P 500. And this is a book map showing ES futures. Nice trend, uptrend today. And we'll talk more about that in a few minutes. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger timeframe. Start with SPX. This is a 30-day one-hour chart for SPX. And note that right here, this is the Friday, the 616 June expiration, and SPX has been trending lower until it looks like today. Maybe breaking out of that downtrend. So that was a call-dominated expiration. And as those calls, that call game expired, a lot of market support came off. Market makers could get rid of some of their long stock edges. And SPX has moved lower and now appears to be moving higher again and upper, above the upper daily expected move. So we'll talk about that. So I've got some levels on this chart that I want to point out. And the first, the dash purple lines. So they'll show the lower and upper weekly expected move. This is based on the options market. And then the dash blue lines show the lower and upper daily expected move. And note SPX is trading above that level. It's been a steady uptrend today. Let me point out some spot gamma levels as well. First of all, here's the put wall at 4,000. That's a strike with the largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. And that is well out of play. And the next level is the volatility trigger. Actually, let me point out first the absolute gamma strike at 4,300. And that did shift lower from yesterday, 4,400 yesterday to 4,300 today. And then the next level above is the volatility trigger at 4,345. And that is higher from yesterday. The volatility trigger is spot gamma's proprietary gamma flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance or increase volatility. On the other hand, like SPX is trading now in a positive gamma environment, market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue volatility. And note that SPX was trading below that level at the open today and is now moving above. And then finally, this is important, the call wall is up at 4,400 and it has shifted higher. Yesterday, recall, the call wall was at 4,320, the JP Morgan short call in the June collar. So that is the call strike of the JP Morgan collar that expires on Friday. So that for a day was the call wall and now to shift it higher back to 4,400. And I interpret that as bullish. All right, so those are the primary daily levels as well as the weekly and daily expected moves. All right, let's take a look at, take a closer look at the levels that are in play for today. And this is SPX in a one day, one minute chart. And note here is the volatility trigger at 4,345. And then here's the 4,350 level that was noted as resistance in the spot gamma am founders note. And it did act as resistance. And then when price of broke above that, it acted as support and now price is heading up to this combo L3 level. I believe that is 4,376. And note the SPX is trading above the upper daily expected move. All right, so that is the SPX. Let's go back to book map now. In a book map, I'm showing same levels with the addition of some additional levels. And I have my column of cloud notes here. So I'm showing the, so yeah, that is the 4,376. That's a combo three level. So that is combining SPX and spy gamma into one level, making a combo level. And that is the equivalent SPX price 4,376 converted to an equivalent ES price, which is right now this morning I calculated a 40 point difference. So that would be at 4,416. I'm also showing spy levels on this chart. So there's the spy 4,35 large gamma one level. It's got the upper daily expected move for ES. That's a little bit different than the SPX level. We'll talk about setups in a few minutes. I'm just still going through my positional analysis reviewing levels that are in play for today. So here's the spy 4,32 level that did act as support. And then the SPX 4,350 that acted as resistance and then support. And now price is trading above the spy 4,34 volatility trigger and the SPX 4,345 volatility trigger. All right, so again, we'll look at setups in a few minutes. So those are the levels that are in play for today, shifts in levels. There were, again, the volatility trigger shifted higher, call wall shifted higher, and the absolute gamma strike shifted lower. All right, let's take a look at NASDAQ. We'll take a look at the levels that are in play for today. So here's NASDAQ also in rally mode. And let's take a look at a QQQ chart showing the levels that are in play for today. So here's QQQ in a one day, one minute chart. 360 is the absolute gamma strike that did act as resistance and now support. Next level above is the 362 volatility trigger. And QQQ is now trading above that level. Next target up above could be the 365 level. And then there's an L1 large gamma one level. All right, let's go back and take a look at book mount. So this is in Q futures. And again, I have my own cloud notes here. So I'm showing QQQ levels. So there's the 362 volatility trigger. I'm also showing spot gamma levels. There's the 14862 C5 combo five level combining NDX and QQQ level into one level then converted to an equivalent NQ number. And here's the NDX 14800 volatility trigger. Did act as resistance earlier today and now price is trading above that. And then again, here is the QQQ 360 absolute gamma strike level. And for the NASDAQ, there were no shifts in levels, which may be a little bit odd. I think there may have been an issue with data not updating for any instrument that I look at the index products other than the SPX. So anyway, those are the levels that are in play for today for the NASDAQ. And again, we'll talk about setups in a few minutes. We've talked about shifts in levels. The main shifts in levels were the for the SPX. Let's take a look at the VANA model now. And this will give us a sense of how market makers were positioned at the beginning of the day and how their delta notional may change with changes in price and implied volatility. I'm going to start with SPX. What this chart is showing is market makers delta notional or delta exposure and how that changes with shown on the vertical axis and how that changes with price shown on the horizontal axis. There are two curves on this chart. The first, this light gray is showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price only. What this is showing is as price increases in a positive gamma environment, market makers delta notional increase. They want to remain delta neutral. So they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure as price increases. And then the purple line is showing how market makers delta notional changes with price and changes with implied volatility. And that's the VANA effect, the change in delta with a change in implied volatility. And this is showing as price increases. Market makers will have slightly less delta notional to hedge as predicted by the delta only curve. Then on the other hand, as price decreases, they will have more delta notional to hedge. And that would be in a negative gamma environment. Let's see where SPX is trading now. Give me just a moment. I have SPX at around $43.77. So that's somewhere right around here between these two lines. So there was, as price moved up this morning, there was a little bit of VANA tailwind. So market makers could buy back short hedges. SPX started in a slightly negative gamma position this morning. So there was a slight VANA tailwind. But now as price continues to increase, there will be a headwind. Market makers will need to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure as price continues to increase. So that's SPX showing how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day and how they can be expected to react as price and implied volatility change. We'll take a look at SPI. And SPI gamma notional is negative. And the number did not change from yesterday, which is a little bit odd, minus $1.32 billion. So there may have been an issue with the data, but I know if SPX dropped, gamma notional for SPI most likely dropped more. So it's probably at the beginning of the day more than minus $1.32 billion. And this curve is more typical of a negative gamma environment. But anyway, let's see where SPI is trading right now at 436. So right here near the bottom of the curve. And this is showing as price moved up. Remember, I think the 432 level was support this morning. So that was around here somewhere between these two lines. So again, there was a bit of a van a tailwind as market makers could buy back short hedges, helping to move price higher. But then as price continues to go up, market makers will have to start selling futures to hedge their delta exposure. So that as price continues to move up, that van a tailwind that was around, that was available this morning is no longer going to be available. And then finally, let's take a look at QQQ. So fairly similar curve to SPI. Let's see where QQQ is trading right now around 364. So again, near the bottom of the curve. So this is showing that there is not going to be much of a headwind for QQQ as price continues to increase. Note this purple line is not really increasing like it was for SPX. Alright finally, let's take a look at data. And this is the gamma notional market makers position on the gamma curve for SPX, SPI, NDX and QQQ. And again, the only number that changed from yesterday, which is again a little bit odd, is the number for SPX. And that is negative. That has shifted negative for the first time in a while. And it was just a brief, almost like after the rally today, it will shift back to positive for sure. But started the day at a negative number. When market makers gamma notional is negative, that means that traders are long puts, and market makers are short puts. And in that environment, again, they have to trade as price decreases, they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. So they're trading with price, and as the price increases and plight volatility drops, they can buy back their short futures. So that is a negative gamma environment. Alright, so based on the negative gamma environment for SPX and SPI and QQQ, and again after the down day yesterday, most likely gamma notional for SPI and QQQ at the beginning of the day was more negative than shown here. Alright, so based on that, I was looking for a higher volatility today, indicating more potential for a trend day rather than range day. Alright, let's take a look at some setups now. Let's go back to the SAP 500, and let's start with the hero chart. Alexander asked, can we take a look at Tesla? Yeah, I'll take a look at Tesla in a few minutes. So I'm going to start with the SAP 500. This is very bullish hedging flow. And we'll zoom in on the morning session. What this is showing is price for SPX with the white line. The purple line is showing the hero signal. That's hedging impact, real-time options, showing that traders are taking positive delta positions. In this case, they're buying calls and or selling puts. We'll take a look at that in a few minutes. They could be actually buying puts. We'll see. But anyway, this is options trades in a combined signal for SPX, SPI, XSP, and ES futures, all under one combined signal. So in all those instruments, traders are taking positive delta positions. And note this number right here at about 5.5 billion. Positive 5.5 billion is quite large. All right, let's take a look at the individual components real quick. And then we'll take a closer look at this chart. So first of all, SPX, very bullish, strong contributor to the signal there. SPI also bullish. So SPX traders and SPI traders taking positive net, positive delta positions. And then finally, ES futures, also positive. But it looks like SPX and SPI are really driving the SP500 higher. Let's take a closer look at this. So first of all, let's take a look at a, let's break out puts and calls. So yeah, I was right. They're actually buying calls and buying puts and shown by the rising orange line calls and the positive number there. And that is a incredibly large number at almost 5.8 billion. Again, a combined signal for SPX, SPI and ES futures. And they're actually buying puts minus 460, 452 million. But call buyers obviously are winning. I'm just going to zoom in on the, so of course at the morning at 10.15, you have no idea what's going to happen. But this was the long set up here. Heroes started to rise and price responded just a couple of minutes later. So what I'm looking at, first the purple line moves higher, the hero signal, and just a few minutes later price starts moving higher. So let's go take a look at book map and see what that setup looked like. So that's around 10.12 to 10.15. Let's go to book map. And the thing to do would have been to, let's say, buy a SPI call or just buy something and hold it for the day. Again, no way of knowing for sure this was going to happen. But if you bought a call, there was certainly no reason to get rid of it over just a little bit. And we'll take a look at some clues in order flow. So first of all, note the gradual iceberg buys. I'm looking at this rising light blue line as price approaches the SPI 432 level. So that's the first clue. Other than the shift in hedging flow that we saw on hero, the next is the shift in order flow. Note the pink volume dots on the way down and then aggressive buyers start to come in with the, and you can see that by the green volume dots, buy minus sell aggressive buyers coming in. Those are market buy orders and also the rising CVD line here, this pink line. And then also there are some stop orders starting the fuel to move higher. Somebody had a really tight stop here, this 257, shown by the small green dot, that's buy stop orders, helping to fuel that move higher. And that continues on up, shown by the rising yellow line there. So one thing that I like to look for is this, and I have all of these indicators in some are cumulative mode, this gap here. So I see that icebergs are buying and then when the stop and CVD start to rise and I can just see that in order flow anyway. So there's the reversal higher. Very strong clues in order flow and hedging flow. Alright, so that's the long set up in the S&P 500 and then from there, if you missed that initial entry, there were multiple pullbacks to go long here to pull back to VWAP. Again, the shift in order flow, pull back to this cluster of levels here, so on and so on. Alright, so there's the long set up in the S&P 500. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. So again, we saw bullish order flow and call buyers helping to drive price higher. So the call buyers are back. Let me clean up this chart just a moment. I missed one thing here. Alright, the set up in NASDAQ took a little bit longer to resolve. Let's take a look at HERO. So let's go to NASDAQ and this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ. Alright, so at this point it is bullish. It took a little bit longer to set up about another hour. So remember, SBX, the SPI, ES started moving higher about 10.15 and this looks like about an hour later for the NASDAQ. Started moving higher just right around here. So let's go take a look at Bookmap and we'll take a look at order flow. Alright, for NASDAQ, let's zoom in. So really choppy morning session at NASDAQ and there were multiple tests of the QQQ 359 level as well as in QQ 14,900. And note the barely bearish order flow. Whoops, wrong tool. Up until about 11.15. And then finally aggressive buyers step in after this final test of 900 and price starts to move higher. And note the gradual iceberg buys coming in from the open and then just steadily but consistently accumulating. This is what large traders use to hide their size, iceberg orders. And then finally price starts to move higher. I thought the read in the SB500 was easier today. Both the order flow and the hedging flow and the price action. Alright, so let's go back to Hero and dissect the signal a little bit. So for NASDAQ, traders are buying calls and selling puts. So both these numbers, notion of value is positive. 749 for calls, the rising Lorenzine that positive. And then also a positive number for the blue line showing that traders net are selling puts. And again this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ. So the call buyers are back, they're more aggressive in the NASDAQ and the SBX SPI ES, call buyers more aggressive today and helping to drive price higher. Alright, so those are the setups in the SB500 and NASDAQ. Alright, let's take a look at a few stocks. And I was looking at these stocks earlier today. Things have changed quite a bit. I had to run an errand this morning and do some other things. So I traded early and so let's just scan through these stocks. What I want to look for here is call buyers. So in AMD they're buying calls and selling puts. Let's just we'll go through these pretty quickly in book map. So there's AMD positive positive delta positions, helping to drive price higher. Let's go back and take a look at hero. So again they are buying calls and selling puts in AMD. We're going to check Apple. That took a little while to get going. So this was a looks like a key driver of NASDAQ today. So Apple got going higher right around 1115 helping to drive price higher in the NASDAQ. Take a look at we'll just go through. Alright, in Amazon they're buying calls as well. Let's take a look at Amazon and book map. Not a lot of range here in Amazon. Note that it starts to move higher and also driving helping to drive NASDAQ higher around 1115. Google kind of a choppy mess there. Meta stronger rally up to and above the 285 key gamma strike. So when Meta traders are buying calls and selling puts let's take a look at the combined signal. I want to take a closer look at this. This is a nice divergent setup here in Meta. Note this vertical line right here. Large institutional order. So hero signal very strong. Then this large institutional order comes in. Price drops. But the hero signal remains. It does not drop, does not confirm the drop. So the move higher in Meta began around the same time as the SAP 500. So let's go take a look at book map for Meta. Take a look at order flow. So there is the move higher in Meta at 1015. Reversal higher at the 282 level. Again remember 285 is the key gamma strike. And note the very bullish order flow. All the green volume dots. Kind of a choppy reversal there. Tested the 282 level a couple of times. But then moved up to the 285 key gamma strike and above. Let's go take a look. Let's go back to book map. And note the high liquidity at the 291 level. And that's certainly the next target in play. What I'm talking about is the book map heat map here. Talking about this dark red band. These are resting sell orders. And this liquidity in the order book. Helps to attract price. Acts as a magnet for price. These orders shown in the current order book. The COB at 290. And note those orders come in just at the cash opener just a moment later. And Floyd's garage asks when it grinds up do you lag in or wait for a better entry. So I typically don't lag. I lag out but not lag in. And then I'll take profits along the way at various price targets. And I look for pull backs for entries in a trend. So the let's say you missed the initial entry on that divergence. The hero divergence. Then you just have to wait for another pullback to an obvious level. Then you just have to wait for another pullback to the VWAP. So that would be the next entry point. And then I would take partial profits along the way up. So there is the divergence entry again and then a continuation entry at VWAP and the 283 level. Let's take a look at a couple of other stocks. And remember yesterday that the call buyers were nowhere to be found and they're back today. So as when there are no call buyers when there's demand for calls implied volatility increases and it gets to a point where it attracts call sellers rather than call buyers. But if that demand dries up implied volatility drops and the call buyers come back. So that may be what is happening today. So call buyers in Microsoft Netflix and I don't have Netflix in Bookmount. And Nvidia took them a while to get going. That was also a most likely a key driver in the turnaround in the NASDAQ. Note that sharp move up higher in Nvidia at 1115 and traders looks like they were actually buying puts up to that point. Let's go take a look at a larger we'll zoom in on this. So up until about 1115 traders were buying calls. They were also buying puts. I'm looking at this point right here let's take a look at the combined signal. So overall it's barely flat up to that point. Then price moves up and traders start buying calls more aggressively. So let's go take a look at Bookmount. So here in Nvidia again helping to drive NASDAQ higher about 1115 reversal at the 405 level as call buyers and put sellers start to come in trend break then price jumps higher sharply jumps higher let's go back and take a look at the hero chart. So as far as Bookmap goes there are multiple targets above. Let me point those out. So I'm looking at the liquidity at these various levels typical typically for larger higher price stocks like Nvidia the liquidity will come in at the zeroes in the fives the bigger numbers but now there's also liquidity target at 412 415 zoom just a little bit and then there's a band of liquidity and I all between 419 and 420 again a large group of sell orders in Alexander I will get to Tesla next. So no I have not not covered Tesla yet. Alright so you're back just in time. Alright so that's Nvidia and let's go take a look at hero. I'm going to go on to Tesla. Let's go back to hero see what options traders are doing so we know that options traders really came in and started taking positive delta positions more aggressively and it looks like there was no lead effect here and Truman asked liquidity sometimes acts as a magnet and sometimes repels price well first of all the way I the way I look at it is that buyers seek sellers and sellers seek buyers so I'm looking at liquidity above like we saw in Nvidia for example as a target this is where this is where traders want to sell buyers want to you may want to sell at that price so anyway the you know I look at that liquidity as a price target buyers seek sellers sellers seek buyers and then there could be that double could act as resistance the you know there could be a sorption complete consumption of that liquidity and buyers may be exhausted alright let's take a look at Tesla and yeah I tend to you know take a fairly well just let's leave it at that so I you know I look at that as a target and I think that's a pretty good approach for stocks and for futures as well alright so let's take a look at Tesla Tesla was really choppy this morning and really did not get going higher it looks like it's Tesla reverses higher right around the same time as Nasdaq but really didn't start going anywhere until afternoon let's take a look at the total signal so so far today really the aggressive call buyers came in right around 1240 and it looks like that is after price already started moving higher let's go to the total signal so somewhat of a lag here in hero and price action so looking at the hero signal it has was fairly flat until about 1240 as price had already started to move higher so in this case for today hero for Tesla was a lagging signal I thought there were other stocks but of course the SMB500 was a much easier read today alright so let's go take a look at book map take a look at Tesla so Tesla really did not get going higher until about 1230 or so so there you go Alexander there's Tesla let's go back and take a look at hero and see if there are any gamma levels in play for today and 250 is the key gamma strike so Tesla has made it up to the 250 key gamma strike right here and being a big round number that's where a lot of traders parked their liquidity a note those orders for Tesla came in earlier this morning it looks like there were some orders in the order book before 7am and then more came in right at 7am and then even more came in at the cash open at 9.30am eastern time and that is the key gamma strike so so far Truman that level did act as a magnet but now it looks like that liquidity is gone and buyers at least temporarily may be exhausted so if I were a buyer of Tesla so if I were a buyer of Tesla that would have certainly been my price target for today so I would have taken let's say I bought Tesla maybe on this after price got going on this first pullback just above 245 let me zoom in on this a little bit so if I were a buyer of Tesla let's say around 246 as order flow shifted from bullish trend break, pullback price moves higher this 250 level would have been my primary price target and I would have taken profits there so that appears to be what traders are doing let's see what options traders are doing go back to Tesla so it looks like at least for the moment options traders have stopped taking negative delta positions let's take a look at a larger shorter time frame so I'm going to go back to the 30 minute look back period so I'm just looking at the last 30 minutes of data and I see that a couple of big shifts lower in hero here no longer supporting an increase in price and to me today hero for Tesla is fairly difficult to read it's been much easier in other stocks and also again the S&P 500 NASDAQ this is pretty unusual for the S&P 500 just this straight mechanical line up it looks like Algos are in here just buying buying buying alright so I go JAD ask what is your procedure to get all those price levels on the charts I know you use price lines so yes I do use let's go back to book map go to the S&P 500 and yes I do use the price lines add-on I have an older version here but it works just fine so what I do is let me just show this so I have all of these levels in a spreadsheet and every morning I just update my spreadsheet with the current levels and this is the equivalent of this for spy 430 that trades that changes a little bit every day and I have a a think script that displays a badge on my spy chart that shows that number that ratio so I just update that every morning and then I update the current spy spot gamma levels and here are the SPX levels again that difference between ES and SPX changes a little bit every day so I just update that again today I'm using 40 points so I just update all these levels in my spreadsheet and then I refresh the levels and it shows the current levels so that's the procedure that I use and that is a big part of my morning preparation looking at how those levels change and then marking them on my charts alright so the uptrend continues in the SP500 just again a very mechanical steady uptrend it looks like let's zoom in on the last few minutes so it looks like there were a few iceberg cells note the falling light blue line so a few iceberg orders large traders coming in and fading this move higher with iceberg orders so there is some liquidity at various levels in the order book that's shown in the book map heat map let's take a look at where SP500 may be going so the spy 437 level is above and then the target perhaps if this continues on later in the week the target would be the 4400 level also the next right next to the upper weekly expected move shown by the dash purple line there so target maybe not for today but if price continues higher if pal doesn't say anything that spooks the market or if he's positive in any way in his speeches tomorrow and the data comes out and market participants interpret that data as bullish then that would be an obvious target for the SP500 let's just take a look at one thing real quick and then I'll wrap it up for the SP500 I want to take a look at the absolute gamma levels we haven't looked at this in a while that's for QQQ let's go back to SPX so what this chart is showing is the absolute gamma levels of different strikes the orange bars are showing call gamma or positive gamma and the blue bars are showing negative gamma or put gamma negative gamma put gamma so here is the 4300 absolute gamma strike again that moved down from 4400 yesterday and then the call wall moved up to 4400 and that was at 4320 yesterday so there is a cluster of gamma here at 4300 and 4320 again 4320 being the JPMorgan call and the JPMorgan call or call strike but price now moving up toward the 4400 level which may be an upper level I would expect that to be an upper level for this week for sure and then things may change next week is that call gamma from the end of the month call gamma the June end of the month expiration comes off and there may be window dressing anyway the new quarter starts next week 4400 level a potential target for a continued move higher this week alright my time is up I want to thank you for your questions and comments thanks for watching and I will see you tomorrow bye