 Hey, hey, hey, how we doing out there guys? Oh my goodness, man. It is good to be here. Good to see you. Hope you're doing super well. I'm going to dive into just some market update here and a lot of data. And basically I'm going to lay out this storyline for you that basically my theory here is that we're entering into a perfect storm in the market where a pinned up demand is going to, you know, combine, it's going to run into this lower mortgage rate situation along with basically zero inventory. This is going to be super interesting. I'm going to just dive into a lot of different data points that I've read over the last week and put it together for you here. Really excited about this. And, you know, listen, I just want to spread this message as far as I can spread it for you guys because there's so much negativity out there in the world of media, in the world of social media, even on, you know, YouTube. And I mean, there's just, and even in the comments, even in the comments on posts that I make, you know, there's people saying, man, Ricky, you're living in a dream world. You are living in a dream world. There's no way that, you know, the market's going to continue like this. But I'm here today to prove that wrong and show you how for the market to really go down at all, even into just negative appreciation whatsoever, even 1%, is really extremely speculative. And it's really nothing you should bet on, honestly. Anyway, just rambling, giving you guys some time to log in here. While I am waiting on people to show up, one thing I want to mention is that we are all starting the 60-day Zero to Diamond Challenge Monday. I'm going to do a, probably a session on Discord, maybe a Zoom call, but that's going to be 8 o'clock Eastern on Monday, that I'll do that call just to get you guys started. And I may do a call every week. I may do a mid-60-day check-in. I don't know how I'll play it for the rest of the 60 days, but I will do a call Monday to get you guys going and make sure you guys don't have any questions about it. The 60-day challenge is completely free. It can be found at zero to diamond.com. And just check the courses section for that. After I go through all this data here for you and really paint this picture, then I'm going to switch over to Discord to do general discussion, Q&A, all that stuff. So I got a link in the description here. Let's see. I'll put it here in the chat for the people. Let's see. Here is the Discord link right there. If you guys should join that. And then here is, of course, zero to diamond.com is zero to diamond.com. So that's pretty easy to find. Let me, I'll go to YouTube here and I'll pin that comment while you guys let me know where you're from today, where you're listening from, how excited you are about the market and everything going on. I'm about to give you just an entirely new perspective here on not only, you know, the short term, but also long term. I'm also going to be showing you 40 years of appreciation, not 40 years, going back to 1940. We're going to look at appreciation every year from 1940 and really dissect this thing. We're going to talk about interest rates, prices, where we are, what we're doing and where we're going. Let's go guys. Let's get excited about this. Did you guys see my live call session just a couple of days ago? I'm enjoying doing those again. So anyway, without further ado, let's dive right in here. All right. The first thing I want to show you here is this article that was put out by the Alabama Association of Religious. Shout out Alabama. And as I dug into this, I started to realize a lot of things. So the first thing was, okay, millennials want to be home buyers. Do you know that there was a survey done? Okay, there's 72 million millennials. There's a survey done that 98% of millennials want to become a homeowner at some point if they aren't already. That is mind-blowingly massive right there. So I started to break down the data. The biggest reason why millennials wanted to be a homeowner is because they want to build their own equity. You see right here, they've got the reasons. They want to build their own equity instead of building someone else's equity. 45%. Some of the other reasons were change in life stage, stability, appreciation. That's kind of the same thing. Want to ability to make somewhere of their own, need more space, less expensive to own than rent, hard of paying rent. All those are kind of come back to the same first thing. That could have all been figured in. Fix monthly payments. All this stuff is true. But the biggest reason was they wanted to build their own equity instead of someone else's equity. And when you look at the net worth of homeowners versus renters, a homeowner's net worth is 40 times more than that of renters. So keep that in mind as we're moving through the data here. So when I looked at this, five reasons why millennials want to be homeowners, and 98% of millennials want to become a homeowner at some point. I thought, okay, what's the average or the median? What's the median age of a first time home buyer? And the median age is 36 years old. So I started to dig in here. And so in 2021, right here, you'll see the median age for the first time home buyer was 33 in 2021. And in 2022 went up to 36 years old. Okay. So I started thinking about this 33 number, how 36, you know, last year was kind of a shift in the market and how I think this 33 number is probably going to be closer to where we are. I started to think, okay, what happened 33 years ago? So I went to 50 years of births in the U.S. And when you look at this chart, you see that there was a decline there. We had the baby boomers, right? You had a decline there. And then the millennials were started to be born, right around in here. And that's where the millennials being born kind of started to pick up. And look what happened 1990 and 1990, we had an incredible number of births in the U.S. This was 33 years ago. So when I thought about 33 was the median age of a first time home buyer in 2021. And 33 years ago, we had a massive number of births in the U.S. It started to make me realize where we kind of stand with demand. Okay. So I think about demand and I think about first time home buyers and people coming into the market, right? So then we look at this chart. And this chart shows you the blue is formations of families, which means basically people turning 33 years old who have a family who want to go off and start, start, you know, own their own house, have their own place. They want to move out of the, they want to move out of their mom and dad's house. They want to have their own place, right? So that's what the blue is. The, let me reset this and see, get this to where you can see it good. All right. So the blue here is family formations and the orange line is new construction homes. You see how out of whack this was now started looking at this and I started thinking, okay, 2005, there was a drop off there from 2005 to 2006. Okay. So I said, okay, what happened between 2005 and 2006? And why is this, why is there so few formations of families happening right here in eight and seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14? You know, and it shoots back up. Well, if you go back to the 30 year births, the 50 year birth rate, you can see 33 years ago right here, there was a drop off in births. There was a drop off in births and it kind of leveled out and then it started climbing again. Okay. You see the same thing in this chart. It dropped off and then it started climbing again. And now here we are in 2023 and you see who the estimated blue line is. Why is that? Well, look at birth rates back in 1990, 33 years ago. And so I'm just kind of looking at this data and I'm thinking, wow, look at all the pent up demand that's in the market right this second. And so I'm going to go further with some data here, but I just want to stop right there for a second and just let that sink in for a second. We were moving into this market and what we've got, it was we've got higher mortgage rates than we had, you know, last year, of course, everybody knows that. But what I see is that there's a lot of buyers that are sitting on the fence, don't want to buy because mortgage rates are higher. And everybody fills the same and I'll show data here with mortgage rates coming down throughout the rest of the year. And so the buyers are sitting here saying, hey, I'm going to wait until mortgage rates are better. And they're basing their entire decisions on mortgage rates coming down and they're waiting on mortgage rates to come down. Here in a second, I'm going to show you prices and how prices are going up right this second and how we hit bottom about 60 days ago. So we've got prices that are coming up. People are on the fence because prices are still high and they're going up as we speak. And mortgage rates are high. They want to wait until mortgage rates are lower, even though I feel like prices are going to be probably slightly higher later. And we're going to have lower mortgage rates. We have all these 33-year-olds in the market, record number of 33-year-olds in the market who want to own a house, not to mention the people who want to upgrade, so on and so forth. And they're scared to buy right this second. However, as mortgage rates continue to trickle down and we get into the fives and the mid-fives, buyers are going to be coming out of the woodworks. And guess what? Prices are going to be a little higher. Inventory is going to be nothing. I'm going to show you inventory data in just a second. But as we look at this, we kind of realize, wait a minute. I mean, like this is out of whack and builders are down. Builders, I feel like we might build the same amount of houses as we built last year. You know, new construction sales were up 9% last month. So with mortgage rates, we know mortgage rates are driven by inflation. Mortgage rates are driven by inflation, not the Fed rate. It's by inflation because it's more investor driven. The investors that buy the mortgages on the second market have to feel like they're getting some kind of a better return than they could if they didn't put their money in bonds or treasuries for zero risk. If I can get a bond for 2%, 3% zero risk, why would I put my money in mortgages for the same return? I'm not. And so that's why it's more investor driven. We can see here inflation, PCI is the line at the bottom here that actually crosses up higher than the 30-year fixed line, which is what this is. We just see that this is all correlated. And we see that a core inflation peaked out and we see interest rates also peaked out. So we know that this is correlated. And we know that every inflation report that we've seen over the past couple months haven't been the most amazing ever, but they have been better, a little better, a little better. And what happens is, is they base this on a year-over-year number. And when May 10th rolls around, we're going to see an amazing report that's going to show an incredible year-over-year number. Now, will that make mortgage rates go down right then? No. It's going to take some time and things are still going to be a little rocky. But we're heading in the right direction. And I'm just fully confident that with where inflation is headed, that we're going to see lower mortgage rates later in the summer, mid-summer, late-summer, whatever it tends to be. And that's when all the buyers are going to come out of the woodwork. So we're going to have this perfect storm of lower rates, no inventory, and tons of buyer demand. Some more stats to look at here. NAR reported 65% of respondents, zoom in on this for you, 65% of respondents reported that property sold in less than one month. This is up from 57% just a month ago. So it went from 57% of respondents reporting that property sold in less than one month to 65%, from 57% to 65%. So that's up. It's still down from March of last year, which March was when rates started coming back up. We were still getting, you know, it was still kind of the tail end of that crazy market. But get this, houses, homes listed receive an average of 3.2 offers on average. Average, 3.2 offers. That's up from 2.7 last month. So we're already seeing an uptick in property selling faster. We're seeing an uptick in how many offers per listing. All this is moving up, not down, ladies and gentlemen. Now here's the, this is very interesting. This is appreciation from 1942 to today. I hope you guys can see this good. Let me look on here. It's kind of probably too small to see. Let's see. Let's see. I'll zoom it in like that and I'll just scroll around. Let me see that. That's better. Okay. Well, here we go. Bam. Every time I click it, it does something weird. All right. So if you look at 1942 here, let me get right here. I don't want to do it on weird. 1942, all right? Because people say, hey, prices have went up so much, they got to come down. They got to come down, right? Prices have went up so much. That's what you hear over and over and over again. Prices have went up so much over the last couple of years. What goes up must come down. It's got to come down, okay? Well, let's just look at history, though, for a second. In 1942, it went up 3%. Then we had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years of double digit appreciation. 11, 17, 12, 24, 21. 5 years. Back then, same thing. What goes up must come down. It's too high. Can't buy. Prices are priced out of the market, you know? Unaffordability. All this stuff, the same stuff that we're hearing and what happened the next year, 2% increase. Then they had a flat year. It didn't go negative. It was flat. Then a 4%, a 6%, a 4%, a 12%. Okay? You can see there were never any negative years. There was even a double digit year in 1953. Then we had another flat year in 55. As we move along here, we're looking at a 1%. 3, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 4. We go to 1969. It starts to pick up 7, 8, 4, 3, 3, 10. We have our first double digit increase. Then in 1977, we have 3 double digit years in a row. 15%, 16%, 14%. It's up too high. What goes up must come down. Okay? 1980, it was... And mind you guys. This was when the mortgage rates in the late 70s here, this is when mortgage rates went to, you know, 18%, 19% during this time. This is the time that everybody talks about right here where mortgage rates went crazy. Look at what happened. You never had a negative year. You hear all about back then in the late 70s mortgage rates going to crazy, going to 12%, going to 15%, going to 20%. Guess what? Real estate did not go down during those years. There could have been some ebbs and flows throughout the year. Right? I'm sure it wasn't always 100% positive, but year over year from January 1 to December 1, never had a negative year. This is nationwide, right? Not local. So that's something to take into account as well. But look at this. Three positive years, then guess what? 1980, 7%, 5%, 1%, 5%, 5%, 7%. Another double digit. And then we see finally we have some negative appreciation. And guess what? Collectively over two years, it was negative 1%. Over a two-year period, 1% over two years, it went negative. That was the first time. I mean, from 42 to 90, you had zero negative appreciation. You had a couple of flat years, but nothing went negative, ladies and gentlemen. Real estate was, and still is, the most solid investment. There's very little volatility in housing and real estate. So here we go with 1992. 92, we look. 1%. Man, it starts coming back a little bit. We get to 96. We're clipping along. We're clipping along. And then all of a sudden, boom, we get into that market surge that created the 2008 crash. And we start to see double digits. We see four years of double digit returns, 10%, 10%, 14%, 14%. And then the market starts coming down. We see a 2% increase in 2006. And then we have five negative years in a row, 5%, 12%, 4%, 4%, 4%. Right? And this right here, ladies and gentlemen, the 2007 to 2011 range, that's what everybody is just sitting around. It's crazy, the amount of gurus that weren't even barely alive in 2008. Or even the older people who, it's just mind boggling. Like, look at this chart and realize that there's no bubble. And everybody wants to think about that. And they want to try to predict that the next crash is going to happen for whatever reason, right? And I believe it's if you create fear, then people are going to watch. If you create anxiety and fear, then that's what creates engagement. That's what creates eyeballs. That's what creates views. Awesome. But that's not what I'm going to tell you. I'm going to tell you what I think. Now, look, we had in the 40s, we had a five-year double-digit run. In the late 70s, we had a three-year double-digit run. In the early 2000s, we had a four-year double-digit return. Here recently, we had a two-year double-digit return. A two-year, right? Not even a three or four or five like we had during these other runs. We had a two-year. And guess what? The next year, 2022, we were up 6% year over year. I'm going to let that sink in for just a second. I'm going to let all this data show you. I don't even think I—let me go back because I don't even think that was—you guys could see that. In the 40s, right here, we had a five-year double-digit run, a three-year double-digit run. In the late 70s, we had a four-year double-digit run in the late 2000s. And then we only had a two-year double-digit run recently. Okay. Okay. So again, let's let this sink in for a second because I'm going to show you some more stuff here. Yeah. So let's look at where we are right now inventory-wise. And you guys have seen all my charts as far as inventory goes and all that stuff and other videos and everything like that. But look at where we are inventory-wise. This is the blue line. Okay. This orange line is 2021, the year of the craziness. We have less inventory right now than we had in 2021. Right now, we got less inventory than we had in 2021. And mind you, in 2022, we had even less inventory than that this time last year. We are at a no inventory market. Now let's look at prices. Okay. Let's look at prices. We started the year at $349, and now we're at $366. And look at like, we're basically on track of last year. Started out about the same as last year, bottomed out about the same as last year and we're headed back up where we went last year. We're positive on the year. Right. This chart with Revfinn, it shows we're negative year over year, which is what the media is eating up. But look at where we are for the year from January 1 to now we are up big. And you can look in markets. Right. Let's look in Las Vegas. Right. That market got crushed. They started at $404. They're at $401. They're down $1,000. Let's go to Los Angeles. Los Angeles started at $793. Now they're at $833. They're up $40,000 on medium prices for the year. Let's go to Oklahoma. I haven't checked any of these lately. I'm just picking random places. Started at $235. Now we're at $260 for the year. And Oklahoma never went negative for the year. They're way above. They're up 4% over last year. San Diego started at $763. Now we're at $833. Up, up, up in a way. Columbus, let's see if that pops up. Columbus, Ohio right here. Let's see where we are. Started at $294. Now we're at $317. This isn't anything, you know. Look, here we are pending deals. Same shape as we have every year. And in my opinion, we're down here with less sales this year for two reasons. One, interest rates and buyers are sitting on the fence. And two, inventory. Now look at home sold. It takes the same shape as it does every year. Spikes at the same time every year. And look at us. Look at us go. And the only reason why we're lower, again, mortgage rates are scaring buyers and inventory. That's it. Look at new listings, right? New listings. We're lower than we were in 2021 and 22. New listings just aren't hitting the market, ladies and gentlemen. Where is the inventory going to come from? Where is the inventory going to come from? Now you guys saw the chart I did a while back and it was showing you how much equity people have on average in their homes. This is the average loan to value of homes, right? Back in 2008, the loan to value was 81, which means people had 81% of what their house was worth was debt. Right now, Americans on average are sitting on 42% of the home of the worth of their home is has debt, okay? So how is that going to turn into a lot of foreclosures? Heck, if you become delinquent on your note, right? If you're a homeowner, you become delinquent on your note, what are you going to do? Well, you're going to go out there and sell your house and make $100,000 a day. Hey, I don't feel like paying my note. I'll just go rent for a while. Let me take this $150,000 off the table and I'll go rent for a little while. We're in incredible, incredible shape. If you look at this, this illustrates where we have the red box here, okay? This is 2007, 8, 9, 10, 11. This shows inventory, right? And you can see inventory back in 2007 was $4 million pending and active listings. We're under a million active and pending listings. And as far as active listings go, we're under 500,000 active listings in the U.S. Where are the listings going to come from? Everyone is sitting on under 4% interest, 85% of homeowners that have a mortgage are sitting under 4% interest. They're not selling if they don't have to and they don't have to. Builders are down. They can't even keep up with demand anyway. Foreclosures aren't going to happen with the amount of equity in the average loan to value and equity in people's homes. Where is inventory going to come from, ladies and gentlemen, to create the oversupply needed to create a housing crash? And when you mix, when you mix where interest rates, where mortgage rates are headed because inflation is dwindling, when you mix that with the pinned up demand with the number of 33-year-olds that are in the market right now who are dying to buy a house. And by the way, last year the medium age was 36. The year before it was 33. So, you know, I don't know what it's going to be this year, but if it's somewhere between 33 and 36, let's go back to the birth rates for a second. I want to show you this. You see right here in 1990 how birth rates are, you know, higher than they have been in a long, long time. Let me zoom in on this. Let's see. Yeah. Okay. All right. So, right here, you see that birth rates are higher than they've been in a long, long time. Okay. And that puts these people born in 1990, 33-years-old today. But look how the births go for the next 16 years, right? And you even enter a place here in 2006 that's higher than where we are now. Actually, in 2000 was about this. And then 2006, five and six are higher than where we are now with the amount of 33-year-olds entering the market. 16 years worth of demand. That's what I see when I look at this. 16 years worth of demand of people that need housing. And, you know, 33 is the number I'm going by, but 36 was the median age last year. So that really means some of these 33-year-olds may buy this year or next year or the year after. Not to mention the people that are turning 33 next year and the year after and the year after. There's so much pinned up demand on the sidelines, guys, that are just sitting there waiting for interest rates to come down. There's no inventory on the market. And prices are, you know, let's just say they're leveling out. I mean, they're up, but let's just say they're leveling out somewhere, you know, whatever. But the case that I'm making is that we're going to hit this perfect storm when rates hit a certain level on the downside. Maybe it's five and a half. Maybe it's 5.7. Maybe it's 5.9. I don't know what it's going to be. But when it happens, it's going to be a rush of buyers. And so what you need to be doing is stacking your inventory. You need to be stacking your inventory to the moon. Take overpriced listings because guess what? Prices are going up. The market will catch up to it or the seller will come motivated and end up saying, hey, let's get it down where it needs to be to sell. I got to move. I got to do something. Don't walk away from overpriced listings right now. Stack that inventory. Get the listings. The ones that sell on a day, great. Go after every little thing you can go after and make sure you're doing everything right now to take advantage. I told you guys back last fall that we were going to see multiple offers again and that you needed to go all in and stack your inventory. We did. We stacked about 30 to 40 listings and we had 20 deals that all closed within the last 30 days. We've got about eight pending right now. So now we're starting to build it back up. We're in that in between spring and summer low here in my market. But you know what? We're focused on one thing, stacking inventory because we know the tidal wave is coming and you need to be ready for it as well. You also need to be buying real estate. Please don't be scared to go out there and buy real estate right now. We have—I just showed you 16 years worth of massive amounts of 33-year-olds entering the market that are going to be looking to buy homes. That doesn't count the people that are upgrading and downgrading and moving and relocating and all that stuff. We're in one of the most solid industries, one of the most incredible opportunities that is imaginable. And all you have to do is commit 100% to go out there and build your business. If you're second-guessing yourself or the market, this is not going to work. So I want you guys to get out there and take this information and go crush. I want to show you one more thing that I thought was interesting and that is this. This last month in March, we just hit the first year-over-year negative number year-over-year this March from last March and number of real estate agents that are members of NAR. This was the first one—this was the first month and I went back. I tried to find one. I started finding it back here in the Great Recession. But this was the first month that we saw negative year-over-year numbers, you know, this month compared to last month. So I thought that was pretty interesting. I thought that was pretty interesting. So anyway, it's something to keep an eye on. I'm going to keep researching. I'm going to keep sharing my thoughts on the market and what's happening and what you should be doing. Again, we're all starting the 60-day challenge Monday. I'm going to do a call at 8 o'clock Eastern. That's probably going to be on Zoom. I'll send out an email for that. If you're not getting my emails, just send me a message on Instagram. I'll make sure you're in there. And outside of that, I'm going to switch over to Discord right now. I link that in the description of YouTube and on the comments. I'm going to switch over to Discord to do general discussion about everything I just went through, Q&A, whatever you guys need to go out there and absolutely crush it. I'm going to be on Discord in just a second to go through all that, answer your questions and make sure you're taken care of. So let me know if there's anything in the world I can do for you if you're not going to make the Discord session and message me on Instagram if you need anything whatsoever. And with that, I'll see you guys soon. A couple of tour dates. I'm going to be in Richmond, Virginia, Orlando, Lexington, Houston, Vegas, and Sacramento. All of that is right there at zero to diamond.com backslash events. Be sure to smash that like button and subscribe to the channel. And I'll talk to you guys really soon.