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Published on Aug 15, 2013
From DDP 31st Annual Meeting, July 14, 2014, Houston Texas.
J. Scott Armstrong (Ph.D., MIT, 1968), professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a proponent of evidence-based management. He is the founder of the Journal of Forecasting , the International Journal of Forecasting, and the International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the author of Long-Range Forecasting (1985). He is the editor of Principles of Forecasting (2001), which summarizes reviews of evidence on forecasting methods compiled by 40 leading experts from various disciplines. Thesummaries were reviewed by 123 outside reviewers from various fields. The result was a set of 139 evidence-based principles. To date, this is the only set of evidence-based principles for forecasting. The principles are updated on forecasting principles.com. Forecasts of global warming have been found to violate most of these principles. Full-text versions of his papers on climate change forecasting areavailable at publicpolicyforecasting.com.In 2007, he proposed a bet with Al Gore that he could more accurately predict climate change by simply predicting no change. While Mr. Gore refused to take the bet, theclimatebet.com site provides monthly updates on what would have happened. At the midpoint at the end of 2012, Professor Armstrong had won four of the first five years. His book, Persuasive Advertising (2011), provides evidence-based persuasion principles. These 195 principles, many counter-intuitive, are relevant to dealing with the global- warming movement.