 Our computing power is growing rapidly, and soon, with the singularity, is going exponentially. We already started creating simulations of small worlds, and we can access those by tapping into our crazy computers and nowadays backpockets. We have simulations of worlds that we've built, and we can control. A video game character can be an impersonation of us, a better version or a truly opposite one. Inside our simulations, we can really be whatever we want to be. Now imagine a day in the near future when we will outgrow our current limitations in terms of computing power, and we'll be able to build and simulate a world so perfectly, from nature, art, architecture and space, to wildlife, human beings and micro-emotions. Then every single neurosynaptic piece of thought one human could have will be recreated and running inside the simulation, all that including how we perceive free will as well. Imagine a far improved simulation of the sims, where the sim is you. And you are part of a world filled with complexity and all sorts of attached strings. Now imagine that the simulation of this world has just enough amount of computing power to keep the sim unaware and content, like a zookeeper being friends with a tiger. A really good zoo is pretty much able to maintain the happiness of their animals, building very good simulations of the tiger's natural world. So you need just enough computing power to also generate just enough of the world that they can see around them. Now let's enhance the powers of the zookeeper just a little bit. And now start thinking of him as a computer programmer who built a virtual machine. And in computing a virtual machine is an emulation of a computer system. Virtual machines are based on computer architectures and provide the functionality of a physical computer. And in a really good virtual machine you are not able to detect that you are in a virtual machine. So let's say that the almighty programmer is so good at his craft and puts a protocol in place so that every time a sim inside the simulation is trying to do anything, the world quickly wraps around him and gives him random outcomes based on the interactions with the surroundings. And if the sim wants to start digging and explore the world beneath him, a flag goes up in the program and the specific function is deployed. And then more dirt is added underneath the surface. Just enough to make the sim believe that there is something else out there. If the sim wants to go to Mars, let's make sure we slow the sim just enough so that we can really build all the ins and outs of Mars. And let's slow down the evolution of technology and the human race as well as that should keep the programmer on schedule. And there is this thought as well that we might not be able to travel faster than the speed of light because if we could we could go to another place in space and time to another galaxy and the programmer won't have enough time to program it. So the speed of light is the safety protocol the programmer put in place and we have not figured that out yet. The speed of light is the limit. And essentially the coder built this video game and he put us there not thinking that we might one day evolve into an intelligent agent. And indeed the programmers have enough computing power by their own invention and are able to create and simulate all sorts of worlds inside their computers. And then they can continue building more simulations in the number of thousands or hundreds of thousands or billions or even infinite amount. And you can now create an exercise where you ask yourself and think about in which of those simulated universe are you. And statistically speaking are you going to land in the one that is real or the infinite that are not. And one can think and use tips and tweaks like Bayesian statistics where you're essentially allowed to introduce new information your concept information that you already have available to you even if you didn't measure it to be true. And then you can establish a likelihood that one heyday will have enough computing power to do this and then that factors into the statistics. Now metaphorically speaking let's say that there is one in a zillion chance you are indeed in the real universe not touched by the almighty programmer. And then say that there are 999 bazillion to one chances that you are in a simulation. That's an interesting way to look at it am I right. And learning that the thing all these simulated universe have in common is that they own the power to simulate themselves. Even though we do not have that power now and we cannot yet simulate and send ourselves into the future and we cannot continue the simulation chain. And this means that we can also be part of the already evolving chain essentially on the road to build their simulation within their own world. So the odds of us being a simulation goes from a gazillion to one to something like 5050. Another cool exercise worth trying is to construct an analogy where the programmers are recalling and thinking back to the days before we started building our own simulations. Then you can think about us as an historical exercise for the almighty programmer. And does this mean that the post simulation is boring? And even if there are some remaining period pieces this could be simulated universes built only after the programmer became capable to simulate himself. So our chances are increasing quite a lot when we understand that we are throwing darts. But now we can go back again and think about us either being in the first part of the chain or on our way to the next.