 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, your wonderful host. And of course, it doesn't matter where you're at. You could be in Tallahassee. Or, uh, where is it? Tipperary. Two towns will begin with a T. It doesn't matter as long as you're here at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So we've got the S&P off about six. It went down to, yeah, about 14 or 15 earlier in the day. NASDAQ's off 21. Although everybody has gone to the whip on Apple today to try to hold these indexes higher. Doesn't look good. Fairly thin. When you look at a lot of these stocks, there's a lot of short squeezes and a lot of stocks rolling over. So we'll go through some of those, but we'll go through the highlights out here. The bonds have been flashing some morning signs. After being weak in the morning, the Fed had gone out and put some money to work. We'll probably see the headlines of that in the next couple of days. But they didn't like it until when it started getting below 145-ish and threw some money at it. So we'll see just how much money they're willing to throw at it. My guess, though, is that the announcement for the next Fed chief tomorrow, that's what everybody's been telling me, maybe we see something up. Anyway, TLT's up 54 cents still below the line. And I don't see anything that changes my opinion that when it broke below 146.50, had the blow off top at 151, that really you're in a bigger trading range, at least down to 141. And I think we're probably going to see that over the next week. But of course, it's aim, shoot, or shoot, aim at the target. And of course, as I said earlier in the week, I thought that either the comments or the numbers were going to be weak on Walmart and Tarjet. That is the French version of Walmart. TDD is down 4.5%. They were only down like 1.5%, 2% pre-market. Gives you an idea just how indicative the open is, because it quickly sold off to 4.5%, most of the day. Some of the other big stocks out here we'll talk to today. Roku down significantly down 11% on the day. I said for years that I couldn't figure out how anybody came up with the kind of multiples. And no one had really ever torn this stock apart, or the company apart, to actually see how anybody was coming up with the numbers they were. I thought they were insane. Well, we had an analyst come out today and try to put some metrics on it. You know what? They were. When you actually dig in and see what analysts were predicting on this to make it work, it was pretty astronomical for these video and demand ad sales. And I, like I said, it's hard for me to watch anything with a commercial anymore. I'm just wondering how many other people did. Well, for what Roku has been doing, there at least an order, almost an order of magnitude less on selling those ad-free movies with ads. At least they're on demand, but you know what? You're still watching the ads. I think the more people get into a Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney Plus world, it's farther and farther from watching ads that most people don't want to watch. One of the clues, and I got kind of a whiff of this when Roku came out, but it wasn't as strong. The flavor wasn't as strong as it's been in the past, but generally the first thing I know on a scam is an analyst talking about the total addressable market. They'll say the TAM, and that is probably the word that makes me want to run the most or think that it is a scam. Generally they'll say, you know, if just 1% of the people bought this, then that, you know, just 1% of the total addressable market. Generally a good indication that that is a scam of some level and whoever the analyst is or whoever the huxter is, is selling you a bill of goods because if the product is that good, they're not talking about 1% of the total addressable market. They're talking about a fairly decent amount. And of course, we'll get to some of the other stuff. Got some questions about Tesla, we'll get to. NVIDIA and arms holdings. A lot of people are thinking that NVIDIA is going to talk about this with earnings tonight. Let me get back here. N-D-D-A, he did type it correctly this time. NVIDIA down 2% pre-earnings. Earnings come out at 420 today. Hadn't been acting well, so I'm suspecting that one or two things. Either everybody's shorting this thing, which I wouldn't recommend, or that someone actually knows that this arms holdings acquisition from England is going to blow up. Now in the last four or five days there's been a lot of news from England, the UK, about this being a bigger deal. I think what they're really talking about is having one more chip company under the Taiwanese flag. And why NVIDIA is a U.S.-based company. They're thinking, well, do we really want to have yet another arms, another chip manufacturer? And of course, Apple has been throwing huge amounts of money around because it doesn't want NVIDIA telling them what to do. It's been mad enough that it has to pay Qualcomm for all the intellectual property those guys have worked on for 30 years. Apple kind of got a weird idea about how everybody should bow and scrape in front of them just for the privilege of having business with Apple. Yeah, I think they're probably finding out it's not as easy as they once thought down there in the Austin to Dallas corridor of technology. As I've said many times, RF or radio frequency stuff, that's the dark arts. That's stuff that you just have, maybe you're even born with it, but it's kind of like Dale Earnhardt who knew how to see the wind and drafting on Daytona. It's something that's in a very few people can learn it and of course Qualcomm snaps up all those folks as quickly as they can. We'll be back in a minute. We'll do some history. Are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return? Or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance With David White's powerful trading newsletter, David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find the path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. 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And they don't listen to me. But $650 million a day on higher gas prices. I thought that was very interesting. So let's go to a little history and then we'll go on. Oh, we got a question. What is the reason prices went up worldwide? Because the United States decided to go from a net exporter of crude to a net importer of crude for a political decision. Okay, there was a lot of expansion to be had. We could have been drilling a lot, employing a lot of people, but elections have consequences. You can decide whether they are right or wrong. Anyway, I don't believe a lot of people. But that's me. I'm a natural skeptic, but not a cynic. On this day in 1970, Douglas Engelbart receives a patent for his XY position indicator for a display system more commonly known as a computer mouse today. I brought it up a couple of times over the last 11 years, almost 12 years now, of being on this show. Engelbart called his device a mouse because, of course, the court came out the tail. And maybe they don't look as much like that anymore because some of them are wireless. But anyway, of course, the court looked like a tail. The mouse was the first prototype in 1964. I talk about this a lot because the McIntosh people and especially Steve Jobs would lie about inventing all this stuff. He would go into Xerox Park circa about 1979 and 1980 and see a lot of the stuff that Xerox Park was working on. They came out with a similar system in 1981 that really didn't go very far because they didn't build it to sell to the masses. They only thought about people at home would never own a computer. But of course, if you listen to Steve Jobs, he was always good and long on the bull. I think you have to look at Mr. Musk as trying to be in his mold 85% of Steve Jobs, 90% pretty good. The downside with Musk is he blabs about a lot of stuff that just is never, ever going to happen. But what can you say? Anyway, as we've said many times before, people call up and yell at me, especially Appleheads, oh, that is untrue. But if you go on YouTube, you can see the video from 1968 showing literally everything that was on the Macintosh in 1968 on videotape with Douglas Engelbart in a demonstration of technology. But of course, 1968, Apple first bought the mouse to bring the mouse to a personal computer with the Lisa in 1983 also incorrect. A lot of people will repeat that. There were other computers, although again, bigger mainframe style computers that had them. However, the mouse did not become ubiquitous until 1984, which is true when the Apple Macintosh popularized the device. And of course, 1970, Patton's added. It would take, well, what, 14 more years to really become ubiquitous. Okay. What do we have here? Okay, we're off 12 points on the S&P cash. Just been kind of a weird market all day long as generally the same thing happens, at least to Patton, I believe, that I continue to watch. And that is Apple. If you want to sell everything and you're a big street name, what do you do? Well, you buy Apple, single stock, you can drive the entire market with it. And while you're doing that, you can sell literally everything else. And from what I can tell, kind of what's going on here, it's Target tries to bust through a 5% drop on the day. And a lot of highly shorted stocks are actually popping, which is not uncommon for highs either. So you want to keep an eye on that. Option market makers have not blinked all week. They think they're worried, let me put it that way, of a big surprise to the downside. I've heard a lot of other things, including whoever they're going to appoint or try to appoint, see if it makes it through Congress. For the Fed chairmanship, but I guess we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to hear that. Everybody thinks that they know it is, who it is already, but unclear exactly who that's going to be. Apple, a lot of volume today, no. Back up to a previous high, the last one was on the 28th of October, that had 100 million shares. You got about 62 million shares. If you do 80, you're going to be off 20%. And if you go back even further, there was 140 million shares down on the 10th of September, 141 million shares into the 60. So is this kind of this driving them? We talked about options for Apple and it all looked like about 150 to 50 for Friday. I don't think that that changes other than them driving the shorts out today. I would look at probably buying the puts, but we'll have to see how this works out. Generally, Apple is one of the most predictable stocks on options expiration, but I'm going to wait until it gets a little clearer, probably not play them until Friday, if at all. But generally it is a good sign to either have the thing up on Friday mornings and buy the puts or have it slam down and buy the calls on Friday when you can get them for like 10 or 25%. You normally get a fairly decent move into what options are predicting for expiration. But big pop today and not that exciting. We'll be back in a minute. Got a question about a few stocks. One is Tesla, the other is O-Block. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading market and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at dfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows. Interact with other Tigers and Tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day. 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Came back online enough to put some pressure on crude. Gold's up 13, still holding well. Silver up 15 cents. The bit con is still holding 60,000 60,000 316 is the last tick I see on that. As I said, looked like they're trying to support the bond market into the announcement tomorrow. So fairly significant amount of cash coming in there. But really not spilling over into markets other than Apple. I didn't see anything in Apple's news that really justified everybody hopping on it today other than the fact that I think they're running a lot of the shorts out of Apple. But yeah, there's a lot of little stocks like that. Okay, the first one is Tesla. And of course the pattern I like best for these kind of stocks is exactly what's developing here on Tesla. I will not predict exactly where it is. I've talked about where I think it is. That's about 1175. This could actually drive up even in a down market. It is in fact more likely to go higher in a down market than it is in a down market. But 1175 probably where you're looking for. But what I'm going to say is this is the double repo pattern from Joe DiNappoli. I love it. It's 10 to 15 days and sometimes more above the 3x3 displaced moving average which is fairly close to a 9-day moving average. In fact, let's go ahead and take a look what it would look like if it was just a 9-day moving average. You've got that. So we're closing over even on a 9-day. The 9-day is just a little smoother. It doesn't react as fast as the 3x3. What I like about the 3x3 is it does give you an idea of what you're looking for. But if I wanted to short Tesla this is the best pattern I know of for shorting ballistic stocks. But what you want is the next short or the next time that it closes below the 3x3 displaced moving average. So next close under 1050 you'd want to go all over it. Now that can continue to start moving higher over the next couple of days. I would not be surprised to see this thing expire at 1175 or 1160 or something like that on Friday. And then the next move below that line is what you want for confirmation. And no, I wouldn't have any problem pulling the trigger on this if it does that. Now the thing here is it hasn't done that yet. So you don't want to do that yet. What you can do is if it gets up there on Friday you got light volume or something. If you want to do if, you know, the problem with this is that the options are ludicrously priced or have been. I'll look and see what they are on Friday. Maybe they come down to nothing. And then you go ahead with options in the future. The more this thing goes higher the more of the chance you have that somebody is going to cough up some puts at a decent level for on the cheap. But they've been kind of expensive lately. But that's what you're looking for. Hadn't done it. Don't pull the trigger yet. Wouldn't be prudent doing my little George Bush imitation here. Wouldn't be prudent na na na. But goes up a couple of days, closes back below a three by three displaced moving average. That is the best pattern and that would bring you back to where I think this is added. Just when is the question. And that is somewhere around 775 to 800 bucks. And it just maybe because there are so many other companies flooding this market now. I suspect a Ford F 150 could take up to half of the business of Tesla's in the United States as that starts really rolling out people like the big vehicles and if they're electric so much the better. Question out here is JP Morgan in the top. I've said this before. I hate trying to actually pick tops in these because guess what these guys can come out tomorrow get 20 guys together and I'll tell everybody that this is going to the moon and all the analysts raised the target 250 bucks and blow you out any trade. So I dislike it mostly because them and Goldman Sachs are cheap propagandists so they can always blow you out of these. I think they're the least predictable in that vein. I always wait until they do do that before I ever even contemplate saying that I would go short something like this but or calling for a top because invariably they come out with some kind of BS and I've got a very good BS detector and it's almost always that. The last time my BS detector went off as big as this was with Twitter when they all told everybody back up here at the highs into 80 bucks that they were going to have this newsletter business that was going to absolutely save their bacon. Well, they're down with 10 million shares into a 14 million share low. They haven't broken that 4912 yet but I suspect they could in the next couple of days and I think that social media as a social disease but that's just me. Let's take a look at the fascist book or as I like to call it the meta-musil as everybody wants to call it meta today a rose by any other name would smell the exactly the same and I get a particularly small odor from meta-musil platforms or Facebook, however you want to call it but you know what kind of just a bounce I suspect in a downtrend could be the next months to six weeks maybe the first two weeks of next year most watchers of the justice department are looking for antitrust stuff to come out on these guys they've been going at it for a year the other side of this is a great case is developing one of the fat-kitted sons for restriction trade that could get into Facebook acting as a state a state act to 60 yeah are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current 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doesn't mean that they they aren't evil incarnate in what they're doing of course we do the exact same thing we just would be very stupid to allow that Trojan horse into and we did for a while into the United States I still don't understand the idea unless someone has some pictures and some compromising videos of why anybody in the US administration would allow them to continue with the apps that we know are always siphoning data off but they do like I said compromised or stupid I don't know which one is worse but I can't understand why you would do that anyway Nvidia Cisco kind of tonight so no say what do you got to say on that not much else going on that now tomorrow morning also before the bell we've got a few more as we said before it's a little bit of to see what's going on in China Alibaba JDcom and of course we got a little bit more of retail that I expect to do poorly Macy's Coles Canadian solar don't really know how well that's going to do I did look at that so we don't have much and then of course after the bell tomorrow night applied materials work day into it Palo Alto networks William Sonoma it's kind of it so keep an eye on those okay so they get the rest to to IWM I am not a bull here going into Thanksgiving I suspect that we have a perfect storm of bad news coming our way we shall see in the next couple of days but I think mostly if you're betting on the IWM you're betting on fuel prices dropping significantly you're betting on the interest rates not going higher you're betting on the Long Beach shipping issue to evaporate overnight and it's literally been getting worse not better we've gone over last two weeks from 12 days to offload a ship to 17 days offload a ship that's not going to get to us by Christmas so a lot of the comparable stuff is going to be incredibly hard out here but that that's just my opinion I could be wrong but do you have lighter volume yeah but a lot of times you really need something a little bit more out here and once you start breaking through pretty much here 235 blow I suspect you will see the volume start to increase so far a light volume pullback but I never like the volume other than the breakout day you know it it's just looking at so many stocks out there they look like blow off tops 877-927-6648 what else do we have um okay Richard says I've worked in the car industry and the EV some day Tesla will trade for 50 bucks a share I remember when General Motors was king Forbes was king one time Chrysler was king just when the public wake up and how stupid they are about Tesla you're buying 30 years of what they say they're going to grow now I don't know how you do that and not call this a blow off not a blow off top but a bubble certainly we look at other companies that are coming out now that haven't sold 10,000 cars worth more than Toyota worth more than everything else and they're all based on battery technology how many hard drive manufacturers went away in the 1980s how many other companies in the early part of the computer revolution went away I think Tesla eventually gets bought by yet another company but of course when it goes down a great deal more so the question is just when does it give it up if you were in the Tulip mania of Holland in 1610 and Tulip bulbs were selling at the price of a house I would have been selling every Tulip bulb in the world and getting a house we know that it's worth something even in a depression people still need some place to live eventually that will sort itself out but I don't understand trying to buy stocks at astronomical highs stocks at highs can always go higher stocks at lows can always go lower so there's always a case to be made on a bigger fool theory either both on the high side of the downside but like I said I suspect that from the Rivian and also from Ford a few other things in fact I saw just yesterday several new BMW little EV cars on the road I forget what they are called they've been out for a couple of years but the first time I've seen any doesn't mean that they haven't been around but I think we're going to start really seeing the flood of those Tesla got a honeymoon because of the pandemic and a lot of these cars did not come out what everybody thought they would come out but they're starting to come out now and they will have the same teething problems that Tesla had but you've got cars like that are hydrogen powered from Tesla they are back with version 2 of those and I think at a range of 650 miles not a bad value out there I do like electric vehicles if you didn't have to have so much money a 20 or $30,000 battery pack at that point it becomes just like a buying an airplane and that is you buy an airplane and you get a few flakes of bearing material in the oil and guess what you're at $55,000 because you've got to overhaul the motor same thing with the cars the battery pack starts going bad Tesla is going to charge you $25,000 and you know why it doesn't matter in the next few years you know car engines can last 150,000 miles if you buy a Toyota these days that is a awful lot of times that you can just not drive somewhere but if you don't have batteries and your car is dead and the single price means that you've got to spend $25,000 I just don't see it I much like much rather see hydrogen cars where I can overhaul the fuel cell for $1,500 or $1,000 much more like the cost of an engine and not all around 2,000 pounds of batteries but that's back in a minute sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30am to 4pm eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market 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identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors are you looking for a secure investment which pays you on a monthly basis the target first mortgage program may be the program for you the best rate on a five year CD in the country right now according to bankrate.com is paying 1% per year $1,000 per 100,000 invested the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly on secured high value billable properties in St. Petersburg, Florida the investment is for four years paying 7% per year $7,000 per 100,000 invested your investment is secured by high value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 you want to make 1,000 per year on 100,000 invested or 7,000 per year on a secured target first mortgage the target first mortgage program may be just the program for you the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN and as we come back the rest of the day yeah Mastercard down 3.3% Visa down almost 6% it can't be good and again it's not the technology part of the market which is holding us up today but there's a reason why the markets are acting weak there are a lot of stocks like Mastercard and Visa that are significantly down so just keep an eye on those in fact you had some decent volume and you just gave it up but a lot of this from what I can tell was a lot of heavy shorting and they just ran everybody a little bit early to the party so just keep your hands you're probably back in the green on some of these short positions but keep an eye on that overnight watch NVIDIA Cisco after the bell tonight see if anything's going on with them in the morning keep an eye on that TLT wait for the announcement tomorrow on the new Fed chair we'll close it up again we probably should have 2 or 3 billion more shares back up in the highs we're only doing about 7.5 billion right now so if we get to 10 billion that's kind of big breaking out to these new highs I think we probably should have 13-15 billion and we didn't come anywhere close but you know what we'll see downside action in so many stocks and seeing a handful of stocks like Apple holding everything up always makes me start to wince and the air's on the back of my neck stand up a little bit but you know couple pushes higher out here it's the close that matters so hang on and ride through it with Tom O'Brien in the next hour as always so when you can not when you have to we'll see you here tomorrow same bat channel same bat 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