 to talk about some of the action let's jump over to our man teddy kegs that folks you can check out teddy's tiger forex report he puts out new issues every monday with updates throughout the week when warranted you can check that out on the front page tfn and under the newsletter tab and don't forget about the webinars he's got under the services tab at tfn and you can check out capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads as well as his japanese candlestick pattern stock and option strategies webinars both of those available under the services tab for ninety seven bucks their archived you can watch in as many times you like and boy we got some action let's jump into it teddy kegs that good morning good morning tommy boy it's been quite a car forty eight hours in this market almost twenty four hours in this market from that cpi print we got yesterday teddy where do you want to kick things off man well we definitely had some explosive volatility yesterday obviously we hammered a big lower move low on the dollar index you know i mean right now you have the u.s. dollar as well as yields in a corrective mode right now i think you know overall there's no confirmation of a trend reversal that's for sure you know i think that the hype of it all especially with rates is getting way ahead of themselves you know as far as where the yield curve is or is not going you know so but i think that the volatility is very reflective i mean you had a two-and-a-half handle moving the in the ten-year and excuse me in the thirty-year and a huge move in the ten-year last year or last yesterday so of course the dollar is going to get sacked like it did you know but if if you look at the levels like we had especially in the tiger forex report we're coming into very corrective areas so the target levels are nice now week it had an extreme move yesterday i was looking for us to creep up to these levels over three to five trading sessions not in one you know so are that volatility factor i think that's something that is needs to be paid attention to uh... we had a little extreme volatility off of not new any not the news wasn't anything that should have sparked that kind of volatility so i think you you're running extremes right now you probably squeezed out a lot of week longs and shorts yesterday especially with that interest rate move and i think that you can see the pullback today is profit-taking just off of yesterday but i'd be cautious with these new higher move highs and lower move lows this especially in the fx pairs because the question is if it's a correction well we're bottoming and topping out we're not we're not reversing trend you know that's what you really have to pay attention to do you find yourself to be trying to do the math on the the fed and where they go from here i mean that's a lot of focus of course we had chairman pal the prior week uh... and then of course you got economic data on the friday and then we have the cpi we got ppi week number today uh... a lot of conversation of courses about what the markets pricing in maybe for even cuts next year is that something that you try and wrap your brain around and trying not predict but you trying to work that out in your head are you just kind of looking at at at the currencies and and the momentum in the trends that they're working on right now great question long-term absolutely i'm looking at that i mean if the fed even if they don't go dovish just the fact that they would say that they're stopping you know or a whether it's three six months or just to in not indefinitely but they're you know say let's say that we're going to stop and we're not going to think of being hawkish unless numbers really go back the way they were if we're in a situation like that and i think that's pretty much where we're going to be a member we got an election year next year and we have over eight trillion dollars the are are fed and our treasury department in their ultimate genius over the last five years into ten years they financed everything like they did in the nineties under the clinton administration they use one through five ten-year notes to finance the whole of government you don't do that you do that when you want to window dress your own balance sheet you know that's where you got your your supposed surplus back in the nineties that there was a synthetic move with up because of interest rates now we're gonna pay the price next year we have eight point some trillion coming due into the next twelve months before christmas of next year as well as the next two to three trillion word attack on just for regular spending for twenty twenty four that's not including anything else they asked for for you crane israel the illegal aliens you know so that's a lot of money for us to treasury market to absorb you know so i think that right now especially the fed is looking at that issue they're like well how are we gonna raise ten to twelve trillion that's a trillion dollars a month they basically have to raise starting in the in january you know how you gonna do that if you keep on hiking rates you're not going to anyone to invest in bonds your options are gonna get crushed you know not to mention hopefully they're gonna do it in thirty your notes you know sick is even at the racer at now it's gonna be a lot better than if they keep raising rates over the next five to six years and they keep doing what they're doing you're looking at having more bills come due in five to ten years at absorbent rates you know refinancing you know so hopefully fiscal responsibility hits the fed in the and also the treasury department because otherwise we're we're gonna have a really big problem with the credit markets you know what is that going to do the dollar well could actually make the dollar an extreme bull but the value of the dollar is going to collapse and the velocity of money is going to collapse as well so that doesn't so that means that it doesn't matter how strong the dollar is because inflation is just gonna just outweigh it you know so i'd be very hopefully it's not the situation but that's what's looming so that's where i'm looking in the long term forecast and short term i still think that you have to think that there's possibly another quarter point between now and the next two to three fed meetings before they go on a pausing cycle so that means where we're probably capping as far as how high the thirty year and ten year and even the short term rates are gonna rally you know i would watch i think you probably see a lot of action that's in the smaller interest rates you know like the short terms like the euro dollars in the ones two threes and fives your your notes and stuff like that so i think that's where your volatility is going to be but if the if i'm right in that scenario with the with the bigger interest rate contracts that means the dollar is going to get into a range trade probably for the next three to six months that's going to be established but i don't think that we've seen the high in the dollar index yet you know just and also i don't think we've seen the low you know in the uh... treasuries either i think there's still one more spike even if it doesn't take out the lows we should probe those bottoms before we have a confirmation of at least ending the hawkish stands by the fed yet it is interesting maybe we you know we're getting quite a pullback we're already what twenty two ticks i got the ten year offer where we're trading at last night quite interesting pullback but the market uh... market doesn't care man market going higher picking up on yesterday's acceleration what do you think about crude all the talk uh... you know crude seventy seven handle uh... what do you think of the price of action and crew this morning uh... you know what i like the stability right now i just don't think it's i'm not bearish on crude i think right now you're in a consolidating range trade i'm still bullish especially with geo political tensions and we're also heading into winter time you know i can't imagine that commodity prices are going to stay stable to even deflating over the next three to six months and i think that as long as if if those trends continue i can't see how you're not going to see a spike in oil now let's say that we have an abnormally warm winter maybe maybe then that would keep things better but if we have especially a cold winter some major storms they hit the u.s. depending on was especially like the northeast you know and things like that uh... or even let's say things happen in texas like happened over the past couple years you know i get the those temperature extremes hit those areas well i can see as nice bike and oil for sure you know so because you're just gonna the demand i think will be increasing that and we can still see another pop you know and now if the middle east keeps on blowing up and hundred dollar oil is still on the charts i can't believe it's thanksgiving already next week uh... but we'll probably talk to you next wednesday one more time before the holiday teddy i appreciate as always man have a great week we'll talk to you next wednesday okay take care to me take care teddy folks they do it will be right back for one more segment don't go away