 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Com we're today. We are getting you set for a jam-packed week of football by talking both college football And the NFL with professor at every Edward E. Gross getting his thoughts on the game between Michigan and Ohio State That should be a fun one We're gonna talk Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and of course NFL week number 12 as well. My name is Jim sawness I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power Inc.com Ed happy. Thanks giving to you. How you do it today? I'm doing great. It's been a little bit of a lighter week for me by choice. And so I I'm looking forward to it. We're gonna get done here and I'm gonna go watch champions league game with my son and our team Dortmund, so I'm pretty excited about that. How you doing? Not too bad My sister lives in Ithaca, New York, so I'm like, you know 45 minutes away We're gonna go over there my mom and my stepdad are there and key is my stepdad big Michigan fans So that means on Saturday. I get to watch the game with him I'm not sure if like that's a good thing if things go bad for Michigan But like, you know, it'll be fun as long as I like, you know, it's it's okay and not like a trade racket, right? Yeah, we'll get into that later. Yeah, absolutely. We're talking about plenty about that game We're gonna preview it with Edward e-gross. He is a professor at SMU in Pepperdine You've also is on TV G's more ways to win NBC Sports Edge. We're talking about that game, of course We're gonna talk college football week 13. We're gonna talk NFL week 12 and much more bad before we get there Before the year we were talking about your study on bad ball rate for quarterbacks and guys who make mistakes last year You said, hey Carson Wentz puts himself in trouble a lot. Carson Wentz got benched This year you mentioned Ryan Tannehill puts the ball in danger a lot and Tannehill not in danger getting benched But he apparently said a pro football focus record for most turnover worthy throws in a quarter This past week against Houston So maybe not the benching thing, but like bad ball rates looking pretty good this year again Yeah, it it's been interesting to watch the evolution So I only started this research during the pandemic and last season was the first year I made a prediction and I prayed made a pretty pretty bold call on Carson Wentz and it almost worked out too well right like he was so awful like the prediction was that he would go to NFL average and He was so bad that it made me look good, but maybe not in the best of ways, right? and it made in and you also think about how to use this betting wise, right and You know, I mean, I think there was a lot of value betting against Philadelphia earlier in the year Markets caught up as they do and then coming into this year like Ryan Tannehill is a good quarterback. We've seen him throw We've seen him make these big throws He's a good play acting quarterback He definitely has some weapons this year, but how is that going to manifest itself, right? Like could you just straight bet against him? I mean, you know, you don't straight bet against Tennessee and Yeah, I mean, I think this analysis so Tannehill is like three and a half point 3.5 percent pick rate or something like that That's certainly worse than he's been over the last three years at least which is the the window I use for bad ball rate to predict going forward Again, but he's not a bad quarterback So like I think this is useful information. Maybe it's the kind of thing We're betting more props and sure, but I don't know I think I got a little spoiled with the Wednesday last year and it you know It's not gonna be that dramatic every year And then with Tannehill. Yeah, you know, it's nice that we get this week to talk about it promote my newsletter a little bit like I did on Twitter But still trying to figure out how to kind of incorporate it into just game-to-game betting. Yeah And I wish I had last week because my number said to bet Houston and I ignored it because like I look back at my numbers What they said with like double-digit spreads and it said they don't perform as well Relative to the market on larger spreads something we've talked about on the show before and like, okay, cool I'll ignore this pretend it's not there and then Houston wins outright. So I don't regret it I know why I made that decision and I feel good with my process behind not doing so But I'm like man could add some extra money there, but either way Yeah, I mean, I think you know, my number is actually like I think my numbers had Tennessee by 11 Okay, and part of the reason is that their past defenses has looked really good. Yeah Surprisingly good given how awful they were last year and a lot of new pieces and they actually haven't had Caleb Farley all year or the rookie that was supposed to come in. I think they've had it's actually an interesting study in that It doesn't look like there's many weaknesses on in that secondary when you when you so this is what I actually do on PFF now At the beginning of the year, I was just kind of looking at coverage grade for corners But then I realized you can just sort by the number of coverage snaps So that's what I'll do now and you know, some of these teams that have really good past defenses In a surprising way the Tennessee's and the Arizona's of the world There's not many weaknesses like it's not like everyone You know, it's not like one guy has a 90 out of 100 coverage grade It's like everyone's in the 60s and 70s Something right for study, maybe in the offseason, but anyways, this is past defense has been good I think that's part of the reason that My numbers tend to like them every week I've heard that same principle of the weak spot principle with offensive line where if there is a glaring weakness It will show up and so I think that like that overall thought process where it's like a unit that needs to work together Secondary very much so offensive line as well. I think that line of thought does make sense there, too So we'll talk about what that means for this week's game in This week's games later on first so quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed To covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are here twice a week usually not this week because of Thanksgiving But usually twice a week wherever you get your podcast Apple podcasts Spotify Stitcher hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Before we talk about week number 13 in the college football and week number 12 in the NFL Got to go back to last week and break down how things went there on both sides for us Covering the past Starting things off with the college side we had Andrew Percival on to talk week 12 in college football You can find him on Twitter at p-dog 206 Andrew was on Notre Dame Lane 17 and a half against Georgia Tech and that one got to 18 at close and Notre Dame Stomp them 55 nothing they won massively easy win for Andrew in that game And it feels like Notre Dame's trying to flex to show off for the playoff committee at this point So that was a good one there. Well, and and you know what it was Georgia Tech, right? Yeah, that got stomped and now is a 35 point dog to Georgia Which is something my numbers can't quite get to but not exactly Looking to bed either or Georgia Tech What a tough turn to go from 55 nothing to facing Georgia Which is never fun, but then facing it that week just brutal so tough on them Andrew is on Texas at plus three and a half versus West Virginia and also Wanted to check out the money line at plus 132 the spread dig into two points So it did move pretty heavily in his favor West Virginia got out front early though. They scored on the first drive of the game They were a 14 nothing early on in the second Texas did make a game out of it. They were down 2823 early in the fourth quarter Texas had two drives late They had two chances try to tie this game up and take the lead while they were down eight and they just couldn't move the ball They turned it over on downs both times. So West Virginia covered got the win there Against Texas and that one, but if you move across three and get to two at three and a half That's still good movement just a bad result. You'll take that every time a couple games Andrews numbers like started with Appalachian State against Troy But that was App State minus nine and a half and we talked Why didn't a ten at close and another very easy win for Andrew here because Appalachian State won 45 to 7 easy cover on that one other number Other one is numbers like was Middle Tennessee at minus three and a half against Old Dominion Middle Tennessee had two turnovers in that game Those swung things quite a bit Old Dominion more efficient on offense They were able to keep take care of business and but the turnovers didn't help here Old Dominion won this game outright 24217 now you and Andrew went head-to-head on Utah in Oregon You had Utah minus three and a half. He had Oregon plus three and a half and it closed at three, but Utah Smoked them. They were up 20 nothing at the half and Ed I feel like you go to bed early even though You know, you'd bet this game with Utah, but you're like you you can go to bed not sweating your bed at all It's kind of a nice feeling. I turned it on and admired the pretty slick gray Yeah, it was one of these things I think my number is really like Utah I talked about how part of that was the recent performance and that one won I think we had a similar situation with a Western Mission game that I wrote up for my email newsletter and It looked like a lot of the other models were pretty much with the markets my numbers like Western that didn't work out because of two turnovers, but I I I mean, I I've seen the differences in the model. I still like the model That's a little bit more aggressive with with recent play. It does lead to better results So yeah, I'm still going with it. Yeah, and it paid off in a big way there with the Utah win Our NFL guest last week was Nate Tice. You can find him on Twitter at Nate underscore Tice to catch him on the athletic football show And the silent count sub stack Nate was on the Saints that plus one and a half against the Eagles Once again, this number moved towards the Eagles that has it has for like 16 consecutive weeks now close at minus three We recorded this before it was known the Saints to be down there to starting tackles I'm curious how that would have influenced things for Nate because Ryan Ramcheck played every snap week before this So it seemed like he was healthy Didn't want to play either way New Orleans turn the ball over three times touchdown Trevor Simeon. My guy did not play well that did not help They did rally a bit in the fourth quarter, but Philly Just ridiculous. They held them off to cover and win by 11. I do want to talk to you about Philly here because They're fundamentally different now than they were earlier on this year Do you just like toss out the old date not from like a performance perspective From a philosophical perspective where they've decided to go just all in on this like full run heavy approach Whereas they're pretty pass heavy earlier on right like how do you account for that when they're effectively two different teams? But didn't change quarterbacks. I mean, I don't I think teams like Tampa Bay are gonna If they played like a team like Tampa Bay, which we'll talk about a little bit later Teams that have a good run defense is at least good enough to make them throw a little bit more Data still suggests that they they're not particularly good at the run the ball. It is tough Look, I mean over the long course of things you're gonna get better results if you use more data from the current season to predict the future there's definitely circumstances those are definitely subjective adjustments that you can make and So yeah, you know, it's a tough thing I mean, I would say like if you if you believe the more recent performance just stay away from betting against Philly Also in the game it was fascinating because Sean Payton was down 14 points and Played for point differential and kicking a field goal late Why Sean Payton's a smart guy. What's he doing? I I really don't know. I was foremixed. Yeah So Me when when when Joe judge punts down late in the game With down 14 with like six or down 20 with six minutes left I'm like, okay, it's Joe judge whatever when it's Sean Payton I question it a bit more that's kind of weird because I have a lot of respect for Sean Payton from an intelligence perspective That was a little weird for sure Nate and I had a couple vets of overlap here The first one didn't go well That was the Cowboys at plus two and a half against the cheese again recorded this before Maricopa tested positive for covid I also thought Tyron Smith would play He wound up sitting once again. They also lost CD lamb and game But it was already 16 to 3 in favor of Kansas City at that point The cheese won 19-9 to cover there. So didn't get that one. We did get the other bet though We had the Vikings plus two and a half against the Packers This one moved to one and a half by kickoff and the Vikings tried really hard not to win this game They tried they were up 23 10 in the second half The Packers took a 24 23 lead the Vikings are 31 24 Packers tied it up Vikings were driving and I think this is when Kirk threw a pick and it somehow got overturned I bet the Vikings so I was like a kind of hoping get overturned didn't think it would but it did They won the game outright 34 31 Good movement good results. Not sure if it should have happened, but hey, you know, I'll take it either way It was a Good showing by the Vikings Packers probably should have won that game. But either way, you know money money I'll take it. Well, and you guys we're going up against. I think both Dr. Eric eager and George sherry Oh, yeah, both like the Packers. So I Glad I didn't know that beforehand because I felt a lot worse about that bet. So I'm glad I found out now and not then You're gonna go in yeah, exactly and that's been betting the Vikings So, you know, why not your NFL one last week was the Bills minus seven and a half against the Colts They closed at seven the Bills turned the ball over four times They had two miss field goals their first half possessions in order were interception touchdown Fumble missed field goal and it's hard to when we knew that things kind of spiraled from there But I think like early on just like having that weird Weird play by Josh Allen. I think it's kind of the thing here Colts one forty one to fifteen I thought Allen was terrible. Yeah, inaccurate. So that's clearly not him on his best day No, I still think Buffalo is a primary Super Bowl contender But they need that they need the better Josh Allen to show up also quite a quite a fantasy day for for John Yes, it was he bailed me out of some really dumb decisions that so that was That was a blessing for me. Believe me. Well, we had talked about with Nate about how not in terms of like Oh, we want to bet indie because of this but because it was like, oh, we think the Colts might be have the personnel To move the ball on the ground. I was like, okay I agree this and that's what it's kind of what I've been thinking too So I like used him in like important lineups like high dollar ones and it saved me So very grateful for old Jonathan Taylor Kind of hoping doesn't do as well this week We'll talk about that later on in covering the future But first we got to talk to a professor Edward e-gross and get his thoughts on the game Get his thoughts on college football week 13 NFL week number 12 You can find Edward on Twitter at Ed with sports He of course a professor decimium pepperdine You can find him on TV G's more ways to win and NBC sports edge But first the NFL season rolling on with week 12 this weekend and faddle is parted with EA sports to bring you this Week's NFL Sunday million enter the NFL Sunday million marquee contest presented by EA sports Madden NFL 22 This weekend and compete for a chance to win a share 1.5 million dollars in prizes simply bed build your best lineup While staying under the salary cap and follow along as the games unfold with 10 games scheduled for Sunday There is plenty of big names to choose from and plenty of chances for a big payday Kickoff is right around the corners head to faddle.com today and get in on the action for more details Visit faddle.com or download the faddle fantasy app eligibility restrictions apply Covering the present Let's bring professor Edward e-gross into covering the spread to talk about Thanksgiving football not specifically on Thanksgiving, but like just a good week of games here and I'm pretty pumped for this weekend Edward I got to ask you are you excited for some football this weekend? I'm excited for football every weekend and so in the spirit of that It feels like Thanksgiving is no different than any other week except that on Thursday I have to pace myself with food in front of me and I may also have to be social Assuming this friend's giving still happens tomorrow. So Lord and Jed thanks again for the invite and please let me know what I need to bring But I'm curious for you so you're since you're now West Coast guy I know this is like this is your second Thanksgiving out there for ready first first first Okay, how does that change things with the early game because that's like to me West Coast throws everything off I'm rattled the entire day the first games at 9 30 for you on Thursday That's got to change something for you, right? Well, I mean on Sundays it starts at 10 in the morning. Yeah, so it's just a half an hour earlier It's a big half hour, man. I Is it though depends on what happens tonight, right? That's true. Yeah, if I'm up, you know, exceptionally late For whatever reason tonight, then yes, that that would be different But I tend to be up at 9 30 in the morning during the week anyway so I think in that regard it's not too bad and I was never the type who would wake up extra early to watch like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade or anything like that You know Thanksgiving was not as big of a deal in our family as say Christmas says Christmas That is the holiday. That is knockdown drag out You are practicing Christmas carols from Sun up Sun down kind of preparation But for Thanksgiving, you know, we couldn't exhaust ourselves there So, you know 9 30 in the morning. It's not that big deal. Do we have to get you to sing? Well, it's not Christmas yet. So I mean, but like are you a singer like I was okay? So we have we had we've had you on to talk soccer Did we talk tennis with you or no? Not much yet. No, okay. Eventually we can yeah talked college football NFL Eventually Singing with professor Edward E. Gross eventually in the in the fold here too. Why not? Well, I haven't done any like competitive singing or any kind of performance in quite some time So anything so like ever so you got maybe Ed. Can you sing? Can we get a kid? Can we you in the action here too? Nope. Okay. Well, that's a professor E. Gross. Okay. Well, we'll work on it We'll get the yeah, one of those tuners, you know Yeah, I can do that part. Maybe we'll work on that. That can be my role. Know your role. Know your job Your job will do that for sure audience member. It's my role. Yeah. Yeah We'll draft someone from the from the the Apple podcast reviews We'll get them to come on here as Edward as opposed to to us if you leave a good review We won't sing even better. There's your incentive lever. That's fine. Yes, right now I think that's that's the key care we can dangle out here I need a tenor because you know, I do baritone bass. So it's got a match Okay The the scouting has been put out there the feeler has been out put out there respond if you don't want us to To avoid calamity here now Edward We got you on here because we got to cover two different sports in one day effectively with college football in the NFL Because like we can't skip college football the week of the game We can't skip NFL the week of Thanksgiving. So we won't talk both we're doing that with you here for today and It's interesting too because like a lot of these big games this week are in like key locations. We got We've got Ann Arbor on the slate this week We have got Foxboro on the slate this week Baltimore is here a lot of like key home fields and I'll talk to you about home field in the NFL versus home field in college How do you handle those two? How different are they? What is your view on the situation? Well, it's Excuse me. No where that came from. All right Take two The Tom Bliss did some really interesting research put out a nice Visualization last year as far as how to look at the difference between home field advantage in college versus pro and Even though our numbers might differ slightly as far as how much to adjust our spreads by based upon home field advantage Last year the number that he had it and I think for the most part this is pretty close But last year he had college football with a 1.9 home field advantage and the NFL was more like 1.3 give or take and Historically over the last several years College is 2.9 and the NFL has been 2.5 something like that and you can adjust a few tenths of a point here and there depending upon what models you're putting together But I would find it really hard to believe that college would ever be less than the NFL in any one given season It's always going to be more whether it's a half a point a full point Whatever it is if the NFL is more then you're dealing with a fluky season that probably involves statistical significance But if you're looking at adjustments in general home field advantage is never going to be that sizable I think we talk about it way more than perhaps we should because things like Quarterback changes quarterback design how much a backup quarterback gets utilized especially in a specific game Whatever it might be those things matter a good bit more as far as my own adjustments Then say where a game is being played I think in this day and age when you're talking about the NFL and college football It's not like you have those little subtle things that you can do at a stadium here and there like I remember growing up in Baton Rouge Mike the tiger would be wheeled out and maybe put next to the locker room of the opposing team And so you would hear this bingle tiger tiger roar randomly and I got to believe at some point This has an effect on players especially if they're not used to it and there really isn't that much you can do in practice to sort of Equip yourself to handle those kinds of things But that's not what's going on in this day and age and plus with ticket prices going up and things like that I just don't know how rowdy home home fields are Compared with say things back in the day where you're worried that projectiles will be thrown at you minus the Tennessee game of course But I just don't know if home field advantage is going to be that significant For the most part, but college is always going to be roughly like half a point or more or something like that now what I do find interesting that I think is important is that Conference realignment I think is going to change this a little bit where college football is going to have a bigger bump in the future When you're looking at college realignment, you're picking up schools that are not that close in terms of area so the big 12 is taking on Cincinnati and that's a little bit out of the way the SEC is picking up Texas and Oklahoma So imagine the Sooners the Longhorns traveling all the way to Florida or all the way out to South Carolina for what for however These schedules get played out. I do believe at some point that is going to have a Significant advantage or disadvantage as far as you know, who's home and who's on the road But until we get to that point I feel like things are relatively steady Excellent So we got a lot of games talk about let's just jump right into it We have Ohio State at Michigan Ohio State's eight and a half point favorite total 64 and a half Obviously Ohio State looks kind of like a juggernaut recently When I checked this morning circa is leaning towards Michigan only having Ohio State is a seven-point favorite What are you thinking about this game So when you look at Michigan's defense, they ranked 34th in run defense 13th in past defense nationally per expected points added and I think the big schism that we see In terms of run defense versus past defense is because of the one game that Michigan had against Michigan State When you're dealing with small sample sizes and you have one You know astounding running back and one astounding offensive line carrying the ball the way that Kenneth Walker and company do for the Spartans Then I do think that one bad game can can certainly sway things significantly and had that game not happened I think we would be evaluating this Wolverine defense very differently and saying It's it's one of the better ones that we've seen out of Jim Harbaugh and certainly one of the better ones that We see in the Big 10 it may still be that way But it does skew the numbers a little bit But as we have talked about before Defense is more about who you've played than who you are and I don't know that Michigan has played too many good Offenses for us to say conclusively that this is an elite defense I was looking at some of the EPA metrics in terms of Michigan's schedule And I feel like the toughest offense that they may have faced might be Northern Illinois at this point and so That a says a lot about the Big 10 in general, but be that this defense has not had too many challenges So now you're going up against the Heisman favorite in CJ Stroud who yes is very young But he's incredibly talented and he's been consistently talented even despite the one loss early in the season and To me this is easily the toughest test that Michigan's defense will have faced after this weekend So it's an eight and a half point spread. We think this is a step up for Michigan's defense Is that enough where you are laying the eight and a half staying away from this spread? What's your read on this game? I Am probably staying away from the spread. I think it's relatively sharp But I do believe that CJ Stroud is the Heisman favorite for a reason EPA per play offense number one in America passing offense is second if you adjust for strength of schedule and That near perfect completion percentage last week tells me a lot as far as what I think he can do even against different competition Now what I like from Jim Harbaugh is that yeah Utilizing a two-quarter back system is tricky and Oftentimes you're putting a freshman in precarious situations But I feel like the decision-making overall has been relatively sound as far as that's concerned And so how would I bet this game? I love the over I think we are going to see a real offensive shootout and even though it's a large total of 64 and a half I would not be surprised if this gets into the 70s Yeah, for sure I Yeah, I do think it's yeah I agree with you that the spread is pretty sharp and I would also lean towards the over Yeah, let's move on the next game. We got Oklahoma at Oklahoma State I believe Jim said that this is now minus four for Oklahoma State and a half four and a half at Samuel sportsbook right now Get that CLV, baby Pretty low total at 49 and a half You know we we have Kayla Williams at Oklahoma that actually got benched the other week But but still remains the starter over three season Heisman favorite Spencer Radler We have an Oklahoma State team that has pretty good defense. What are you seeing in this game? I'm trying to think how many pre-season pre-season Heisman favorites got benched in college football Yeah, exactly Martell at one point have like Heisman odds when he went to Miami. Yeah, but he was favorite Yeah, but he like he at least was on the board and I think that's the funniest one Yeah, no, I'm with you there like it's something like that I mean, you know outside of injury that that just doesn't happen at all and and I mean it needed to I mean Spencer Radler You know didn't get off to that great of a start and then things really fell apart in the Texas game So I understand what's going on But at some point these things catch up when you look at who Oklahoma has faced since the Red River showdown Let's see. It's TCU Kansas Texas Tech Two of those three don't have coaches right now Or two of them have not had had coaches at some point during the course the season Texas Of course hired my friend Joey McGuire. Yes, I'll call him my friend, you know So when you look at Caleb Williams part of the problem is yes, he comes in In lieu of Spencer Radler does really well against Texas and things kind of fall back down to reality over the last couple weeks but and I know I'm probably talking out of both sides of my mouth here, but Caleb Williams after that Texas game took on TCU Kansas and Texas Tech Two of those have been without head coaches at some point during the course of this season now granted Texas Tech has hired Joey McGuire who is my friend and I have no problem saying he's my friend so name dropping. I think it's appropriate I hope I like it. Yeah, why not and TCU? I think they pretty much have who they want there And and Kansas, you know, they're they're dealing with their own issues So that's who Caleb Williams has gone up against and then he faces Baylor and then faces a mercurial Iowa State team and granted I know Iowa State doesn't have the record that they would like they haven't met expectations But they've also played a lot of really close games and so in terms of overall strength I would argue that Iowa State is underrated if you look at overall Record alone so things just got tougher for him and now he's easily facing the toughest defense that he has faced up to this point and It's not just that the overall defense is troublesome for Caleb Williams, but also the run defense is Clearly number one in America and it may be one of the better run defense Defenses that we've seen over the last few years And so that sort of fallback option really isn't going to be there And he will have to sling it some and that could pose some problems as well So we've seen this number four and a half now as mentioned is that an efficient line for you? Do you see any value in that line on the other side? Total 49 and a half. What's your read on this from a betting perspective? I'm taking the pokes here and Again when you're evaluating Caleb Williams part of the problem with him Is that he's just holding on to the ball too long and as we know? Average time to throw has an inverse relationship with success The longer you are holding on to the football the likelier you are to get sacked or throw an interception or something of the sort something disastrous and This is a tough lesson for a freshman quarterback to learn Especially if you're talented and especially if you have a talented head coach I think that part of the problems that he has will be exacerbated and look my Gundy knows what he's doing He knows he's facing a quarterback who's holding on to the ball too long So you don't necessarily need to throw a ton of rushers at him You just need to confuse him enough and he has the personnel where he could do that. Yeah, okay So go ahead. I just want to jump in here one loss Oklahoma State Undefeated Cincinnati or to Los, Alabama. He's making the playoff to Los, Alabama And it's not close and what if there's two slots, but what was that? Who would be next one loss Oklahoma State big 12 champ or 13 and 0 Cincinnati? Boy, I think at this point I'm still skeptical that 13 and 0 Cincinnati still has a legitimate chance I know where they are in the rankings right now But how much does an American conference title weigh in compared with say a big 12 conference championship or something? Or winning the SEC West or whatever it might be, you know, whoever You know, Cincinnati is going up against I still have this natural cynicism that a mid-major Despite a glorious resume will still get left out in some way shape or I mean I think Notre Dame is probably still in the mix. Aren't they like they still have a legitimate chance I wouldn't be surprised that even though they have one loss and play one fewer game than everyone else that they could You know jump over enough teams and make it interesting So you're still skeptical Still skeptical you still think the one-loss big 12 champ will jump them Well, I mean when you look at Oklahoma State schedule, they they haven't played too many teams And as I just mentioned the big 12 is very much top-heavy in terms of overall talent You've got three really good teams and Oklahoma State needs to prove that they can beat and they will get two more opportunities With which to do that. So they beat Oklahoma and then either beat them again or be Baylor or whatever happens That's two good wins against say top 15 competition That is going to matter a lot not to mention having a conference title from a power five conference I think those things are going to carry a lot of weight So you're telling Cincinnati fans don't get too excited just yet. Don't get your hopes up just yet Don't don't finalize your hotel reservations in I assume Miami, but maybe yeah, or maybe uh, wherever the other one is God Arlington my goodness. Yeah, I should know that Fly back go to the game. You know why not? Yeah, sure. It's the old stomping grounds Right, let's move to the NFL side of things here and talk about the Titans at the Patriots because it's a weird game That's why I want to talk about it personally. I think it's a fascinating one on both sides Patriots six and a half point favorites total is 44 and a half and The reason I think it's fascinating is that these teams are trending in opposite directions with the Titans Very much going down after that. They're lost the Texans the Patriots allegedly surging so Which one is more legit to you the Patriots quote unquote surge or the decline of the Titans I think it's the Patriots surge I've been very much impressed with mac jones one of the the top quarterbacks easily the top rookie quarterback Out of that class But he's he's playing very very well in particular with how he handles out routes and you think about an out route You know you you run so many yards and then you cut to the sideline and that's your out route Those aren't necessarily the highest probability of routes because you're also dealing with the sideline as another defender So when you look at say completion percentage over expected Out routes tend to carry a little bit more weight than say something over the middle because of that quote unquote extra defender being the sideline and for jones to be If not number one Very high up in terms of completion percentage and overall number of completions to out routes to me with that higher degree of difficulty That goes to show that he's a good quarterback and he's being coached really really well Now out routes are also great because you have a lower likelihood of say an interception Or a fumble of some kind But they are still you know not the easiest things to throw to and so That the Patriots are grooming their rookie quarterback to handle that kind of offense not to mention You don't have necessarily the greatest stable of running backs Sort of giving mac jones a little bit of relief here in there You look at rushing yards over expected per carry and the Patriots are in the middle of the pack So mac jones hasn't necessarily been able to rely on a running game to sort of alleviate some of that pressure He doesn't necessarily have the sort of diversified receiving core that can do so many different things But what he has been asked to do he's done very very well So the Patriots surge to me has been downright impressive and to a greater absolute value Than the Titans decline now is that enough to lay six and a half because that's a big number against a team that you know is Currently the number one seed in the Wild as that is is that surge enough to justify six and a half point spread? It's not. I am backing the Titans in a big way here in large part because One of the reasons why ryan santa hill has been so effective over the last few years ever since he joined The Titans is because he's a great play action quarterback, but you look at this year They run play action 25 of the time that's in the middle of the pack in terms of play action rate They they are really good at shift in motion. They do that eighth most frequently in football But I have got to believe that at some point there will be an epiphany to say look We need to run more play action. I know we don't have derrick henry But you do not need an effective ground game to have an effective play action game And I gotta believe that the Titans will in some way shape or form understand this And get tana hill to run more play action if they do that I believe that they will at least keep this patriot defense guessing now You can make the argument. Well, the patriots do well defending play action passes and to an extent. That's true I think they're a second best in terms of uh, you know passer rating defense against play action But who's number one in that group? Buffalo Buffalo into england play in the same division So to me that says that it's the strength of schedule that matters a bit more in terms of play action defense Then something inherent within them. I think ryan tana hill can write this ship and at least keep this game close Sounds good. Let's move on to browns at ravens Ravens were a four point favorites down to three and a half totals down to 45 and a half Clearly the browns have some issues with baker may feel hobbling around and even me saying You don't need to be tough. Try not to get yourself injured for the rest of the season Against the lines last week lamar didn't play Kyle hunley was bad till that last drive So what are you seeing in this game? It's interesting when you look at the browns ravens from a season ago in the two Meetings, I think the ravens scored like 80 some odd points combined In those two contests and now here I am saying to take the under in this game Because I don't exactly know what the health is for both quarterbacks I I will assume that lamar jackson is healthy enough To be able to go and be just fine. Whatever the the illness was flew or otherwise But baker may feel it's not just you know all of the injury the bodily injury concerns But there may be you know something in in between the ears as well And I hate to speculate on that But every so often, you know, he says something in a press conference where he goes I don't know if I like that and I I feel like I've had the utmost respect for baker mayfield in terms of his talent And his ability to run an offense to where I'm you know more than comfortable that he doesn't have some leadership gap But I Does have this feel like things are starting to fall apart a little bit because of the browns Expectations up to this point and that you know the receiving core may not be you know, certainly You know to that level of expectation Regardless to me You know, yes, the browns defense does have a good You know track record in terms of at least this year Containing mobile quarterbacks and that's what lamar jackson does best is run with the football But with this kind of matchup and too many question marks at quarterback on both sides I feel like this total is just a little bit too inflated and I feel like the under is the way to go I feel like with the You know the confidence stuff you were talking about with baker It's it's kind of like the wence issue last year Where there are struggles There is criticism and then there's a response to the criticism And you push, you know, you try too hard You're trying to overcompensate and that leads to more issues and I feel like with baker initially it was the injury and then It was kind of trying to overcome that it that's what it feels like at least again I'm not trying to like psychoanalyze things but like I would understand if that were the case Like I'd be the same same way if I were to choose, you know I'd be trying to trying to Quiet the doubters and I feel like we've seen that the past couple games specifically the Patriots game and the lions game Because against the the Bengals he was great. He was fine. Um, I think we're seeing a bit of a compounding situation where He's just kind of pressing when he's not physically capable of like hitting those highs I guess it's kind of where I think it might be right now If I recall if I recall correctly in terms of like Baker Mayfield getting off to a slow start last year before things really came together It seemed to me like He was hanging on to the ball too long. Yeah, and you know looking for sort of that deep threat And and look you you have Landry you have Beckham So you should be looking for that deep ball because you know what better way to keep a defense honest And it felt like at times who was hanging on too long And sort of expecting things to open up and then they never did And then ultimately he's taken down or having to throw something away or you know do something, you know silly, whatever it is And that necessarily isn't going to be there, uh this go around but It also seems to me That if you are Dealing with some kind of a setback bodily harm or you know leadership gaps or whatever it is That you may be reverting to bad habits And that this may be sort of an older Earlier version of Baker Mayfield that we are watching And this is not the time to be and look the Ravens defense has had its You know issues, but this is not the time to be reverting back To an earlier version of yourself where you're hanging on to the ball too long You're trying to look for that sort of home run play or you don't necessarily trust what you're seeing This is not the time for that to happen, especially in the visual game where The Ravens know who you are and they know what you're trying to do and they probably know those little tendencies that happened last week that they can exploit That makes me a little nervous Yeah, I mean, I think Baker Mayfield reverting to his old tendencies is nice if you have Cleveland under 10 and a half wins Yeah Who might that be Ed? And who might that be Ed? I don't know someone Yeah, I mean that bad looking possibly bad At one point this season and now they have the Ravens in their next two games. I think there's a bi-week in there and Yeah, he's he's got to get it together or make way for Case Keenum There's that Is not the NFL's worst backup quarterback The worst part is like it's bad for the Browns because he's playing poorly But it's also bad for Baker because like if he's trying to get an extension You're not going to get it by playing hurt and playing poorly right like right. It's in everyone's Non-interest for this to keep happening the way it is right now and that's a weird situation where it's a lose lose Yeah, and it's in any time your passing success rate is 12 points below NFL average against the Lions You need to start asking some hard questions Well, Jimmy bring up a good point that you know the Browns eat them to play Baker personally needs to play well, you know for all of these reasons and you know The Browns need to know and they you know do need more data in terms of figuring out exactly who they have at that position But it's it's also interesting because the ASC is such a train wreck right now That this actually would be a pretty good year to Try and rest them up not push them too much whatever it is But it's the internal stuff That's kind of forcing the issue the Browns could very well, you know Take a couple of weeks off and still be in prime position to win this division Much less have a really good seed in the afc But it's those internal things that make it that much more difficult to You know try and do something conservative Why is the thing is just like the the left shoulder injury is not going away until after the season So like even resting won't fix it because like you need surgery on that tip for that to go away Now that that's a good point but but as far as the other things are concerned to at least kind of get them and you know In a more reasonable place. Yeah, still. Yeah, it's a rough situation. So the under 45 and a half does look pretty good there I will say that for sure now edward. We got you on here to talk college nfl So the full board is at your at your disposal here. What bets do you like for this week? I am taking the Broncos money line against the Chargers and this is More of a message that I want to send to the the betting world That teddy bridge water is not a bad quarterback And I don't know where this reputation is coming from that. He's bad He may be limited, but he's not a bad quarterback If you look at what he does on short throws zero to nine air yards His numbers are as good as anybody's in football right now His total epa on short throws is I think second best in football Completion percentage over expected is number one And if you take all throws it's second highest the receiving core looks to be in decent shape here Overall in short passes. I think his epa 60.3, you know, given that that's 11 weeks into the season. That's really really good There there are a lot of reasons why I feel like, you know, especially when you when you deal with rollouts I mean, he's mobile enough to still handle some of those plays On short throws. He does really really well And here is a matchup that I think benefits him against a Charger defense that doesn't do well Defending short throws they defend other things in a far better way. But as far as this matchup is concerned This is great for bridge water plus Denver is at home one of the few places where you can rely on a home field advantage And with two and a half points, I think the value is there to take the Broncos on the money line Other thing too, I think is it's teddy with Full weapons healthy because it's judy back fanches back sudden healthy That's a different teddy than a teddy with a bad supporting cast Yeah, exactly. And and there are a lot of quarterbacks who are like that though I mean, we're you know, we were just talking about the titans, you know, ryan's hannahill's kind of dealing with that right now Where he may not even know who he's throwing the ball to he just knows that hey, he's wearing the same color uniform I am so he must be good But you know tannahill's dealing with that as well So it's not like bridge water is different in that regard where there are only three quarterbacks Who aren't that way to be fully clear like there are not a lot of quarterbacks who are not dependent on the situation No, tom brady is dependent upon a situation. How is he playing without grok? Yeah, he was not the same quarterback and he is the greatest of all time So, yeah, as far as who can play well in this day and age Who is it erin rogers and kyler murray. Kyler put him in that bucket right now Yeah, uh Probably lemar jackson Yeah, uh, that may be it my homes My homes Well, but he takes a downtick, but he's not going to be average no matter who these supporting cast Right, he will be average, but like without hill without kelsey. He is a different guy, right? So you did mention You know, I've been having some conversations with people about how being an nfl average quarterback is is actually a pretty good thing There's a lot of guys in there and and they can have their good days and They can even you know like elie manning Have no interception in the postseason and win a Super Bowl Um, are you are you putting teddy bridge water at nfl average? Or do you think he's a little bit below that and the ceiling is a closer average? Well, I tend to weigh How you do on those short throws maybe a little bit more than some do Just because I think that's what you tend to throw more often and oftentimes you're in in a structure where that's all you're asked to do And because his numbers are so elite when you're dealing with a denver offense that You know is coming off of drew lock and then you know, whatever happened before that and It's something where There's some stability offensively now that denver hasn't had over these last few years where I go This should be celebrated in some way shape or form Or if nothing else You know worthy of some of our respect and so is he an average quarterback? You know, I don't necessarily think you know like you're saying I don't think that's an insult per se because that means that there are Half of all starters in football worse than you And half of all starters would rather have you than who they currently have And that's where denver is at this point and again because the afc is just you know, such a crapshoot You know, why can't denver make a bit of a run and make things interesting? Yeah, well, I can't this be a season where an elie manning wins a super bowl Well, the nfc is you know far more stout as far as that's concerned, but getting to the super bowl I you know an average quarterback could very well do that this year Yep Yeah, would not be shocked at all. So we'll see how things play out with the broncos on sunday That is professor eddie gross check him out on twitter at edwin sports and check him out on tvg's more ways to win in addition to Countless other places. Well, edwin. We appreciate the time. Enjoy your friends giving have a great week and we'll talk to you again soon Sounds good. Appreciate it guys. Happy Thanksgiving Thanks. Same to you. Thank you covering the future Big thank you once again to professor edwin egrass for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on all of this week's football and ed He touched on something that I care about a lot Because it matters for everything and that is quarterback performance relative to context because Situation matters a whole lot. We see that Everywhere, whether it's the nfl college doesn't matter situation and context matter a lot Right, like how good are your receivers? So I've been thinking a lot about michigan at ohaha estate and Ohio state has two surefire first-round nfl draft picks and neither of them might be the best receiver on that team and michigan doesn't just straight up their their best receiver might have caught his first pass against michigan state this year And it's interesting to think about, you know, what if you gave kade macnamara three nfl receivers? I think he's a good quarterback. I think he's got a lowish ceiling You can certainly see the mistakes and the inaccurate passes. I haven't seen as much of cj stroud He's clearly putting up very good numbers. I'm sure he's made his mistakes as well But you know for for michigan for this michigan game It's uh, you know, it's an interesting thought experiment. We won't we won't ever know Maybe there is some kind of study that you can do uh to figure out You know, I mean dr. Bob's talked about this too, right? Like yeah, you can't For clemson. He was saying that you you just cannot replace guys Uh, it's just even for clemson. It's not easy to replace guys that got what 13 14 yards per target From the previous season. So how do you work that into a model? How do you make that into a predictive model? I don't seems like a good project for the off season. Yeah that comes up a lot too because like I like when I'm making my like projections for passing efficiency for my nfl stuff I have to like figure out. Okay. How much does it matter that they brought in this left tackle and like it's guesswork But like it's important guesswork because it matters so much and I'm gonna keep on doing that guesswork because I know that it matters and It's uh, it's you know, like you said, you can't separate things as things always we can try our hardest You know try to account for it for sure cj stroud. I'm sure is okay with the situation. I don't think you'll complain I know we're not talking about that game, but Are you any thoughts for you on eight and a half with that number? Yeah, I mean, it's not for my email newsletter. I have a whole preview coming out friday Let you know where my number is but um, yeah, I mean, we'll see what happens with stroud next year I mean, I don't think a lobbying wilson won't be back. So he'll still have uh, smith Najiba, I think is how you say it Who is the third guy that I mentioned earlier? I also double checked. Uh, circa is still at ohio state minus seven They're significantly off market and I would love to find the sharp that is pounding michigan at circa And stand them up on a box in the middle of ant arbor and explain his reasoning Because no one in this town really thinks that michigan has a chance michigan does have a chance. Yeah uh, I think people should be Reasonably pessimistic that they're actually gonna pull off this win because ohio state is good, right? But I would love to see that Yeah, that'd be a fun conversation. You'd think it'd be the other way around like they'd be like, yeah, we love this guy But you know fan bases can sometimes be realistic Maybe overly so uh, and we'll see how things play out of the way. I'm excited for that game on saturday We'll see how it goes our covering the future ed might sound kind of similar Uh, we're gonna go back to one of your old friends in betting against the cults now We don't talk about these beforehand. I ask you before we even start. Hey, what do you got for covering the future? Yours have any minds. Do you give your case or tampon bay minus three against indy this week? Yeah, absolutely. I bet that's a minus two and a half or this week. Um looking like the market was going to three and It looks like that actually uh came true. I've talked about this last week, right? I mean, I was on buffalo against indy last week. It did not work out. I said that jonathan taylor's Running performance is unsustainable That turned out to be very wrong I'm still i'm still standing on the same, uh soapbox. Uh, jonathan taylor is a great running back I actually liked him since his wisconsin days. I think he's really talented quick feet explosive speed It's still the nfl uh running backs have a difficult time sustaining that behavior Also, uh guard quit nelson is listed as questionable. I don't know if he's gonna play On the other side of the ball, you know, tampon bay has got a really good run defense They're second when I look at adjusted rush success rate I think they're gonna have a plan to stop them Buffalo's rush defense was also very good last week. Uh, that didn't help them at all But I think uh tampon bay will have a plan And you know tampon bay like they're their real problem has been their past defense this year They're 22nd when I look at my adjusted success rate. That's not good Part of the issue has been injuries in the secondary and they are getting healthier there Sean Murphy blunting the cornerback played his first game after injury Against the giants this past week And then I mean, we all know what tampon bay can do on offense. We saw that monday night against the new york giants Um, I don't I don't think tom bray is going to have quite so much time every game for the rest of the seasons But we know they're good. Uh, I think this is uh, uh, this is a good spot. My number likes tampon bay by five ish And uh, yeah, I definitely bet tampon bay My numbers are tampon bay minus six for very similar reasons And I think I'll focus out here on the tampon bay side of the game from an offensive perspective because Although the colts defense played well last week. I agree with you where it was more Josh allen's struggling than it was the colts defense being great because if you look at number fire schedule adjusted metrics the colts 27th against the pass whereas tampon bay is fifth Offensively through the air. That's a really bad matchup and you're putting the bucks indoors where passing efficiency should increase as well and like you said I think that The colts will move the football a bit on the ground against this defense against this rush defense But it's not going to be the same way they typically do which is going to mean at some point Carson wants to throw and I'm not sure how well that will go the 13th passing versus The sixth ranked pass defense to the buccaneers like that's Not a situation. I really want Carson wants to be in so at some point they're at the throw I'm not optimistic. They'll be able to throw well in the situation I think the tampon bay is going to hang a big big number offensively on this defense. So to me My numbers have a tampon bay minus six. I think that minus three minus one ten on this side Is very very fair. So I had second time this year. We've agreed Having the exact same bet here Other one was miami plus two and a half against atlanta. They covered should have won that game. So you won that game I'm feeling good, man. This is good. Well, and that game moved Right. Yes. It was one and a half a close. Yeah, so you would have lost if you didn't bet it. So Yeah, I feel good about this one Yeah, yeah, me too Just potentially overreaction to the the jonathan taylor mvp discussion So we'll take that one for sure That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread for this Thanksgiving Two in one episode big. Thank you once again to professor Edward e-gross for swinging by Breaking down his thoughts on both college and the nfl find him on twitter at ed with sports Check him out on tvg's more ways to win an nbc sports edge as well ed What is going on for you this week at the power rank? Sign up for my free email newsletter. You'll get my my preview and thoughts on ohio state and michigan on friday and also the The the bad ball rate stuff with ryan tanny hill is still uh, the I guess the subscriber bonus So if you sign up and you click the little thing to say you want to sign up The link that says you actually want to sign up the first email you'll get Has the ryan tanny hill and the bad ball rate stuff in there Some of the better work that i've done. So check that out at the power rank dot Com and happy thanksgiving to you ed. I hope that yeah, you have fun and enjoy saturday too I will I will and you can find ed on twitter at the power rank. I'm at jim sanis j i m s a n n e s uh, we have our dfs podcast up for both the thanksgiving slate and for the main slate You can find those by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast you can also find covering the spread wherever you get your podcast go there hit subscribe And leave us a rating and review. Happy thanksgiving to everyone out there listening Good luck with your bets and we'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network. What's up guys? This is jordan spieth if you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the fan duel youtube channel