 Okay so welcome to today's session. As always before we get started we want to pay attention to the risk disclaimer. As we know trading any financial instrument carries with it a high degree of risk and you can lose more money than you deposit. And most importantly the views that I expressed here today are strictly mine and they're not representative of tick mill. Before we get going with the the charts today let me just briefly introduce myself. My name is Patrick Munnelly, a resident market expert at Tick Mill. I've been involved in the financial markets for the past 12 years. I wasn't always involved in financial markets after I graduated from university. I joined a city consulting firm after a couple of years learning the ropes in technology executive search. I left with a couple of colleagues. We did a startup that went through some pretty rapid growth and after four or five years I cashed in my stake in the business when we merged with another company. At that stage I had a bunch of capital and time on my hands and I started to explore my passion for markets. Initially solid day trading the S&P 500 in a market that was pretty much trending north and as is often the case I had some initial beginners luck which saw me make some solid and then some quite significant gains and as is often the case that beginners luck ran out and it led to me not just giving back everything I'd made but also led me to a six figure loss on my initial capital and to say that that was a gut wrenching and devastating experience is an understatement at the very least. At that stage I decided I need to take a step back and think about what it is that I was going to do and could I make a sustainable income from trading the markets. Using my prior skills I decided to go about identifying an individual who could ultimately act as my mentor and after doing some networking I was fortunate to be introduced to my mentor a guy over in the US worked with him over an 18 month to two year period not just focusing on my technical game and upping my technical skills but more importantly my mental game. It was a period in which I became far more self-aware and he really underpinned my mental performance and how to manage the mental side of trading and during that time I developed back tested rigorously back tested and forward tested a core strategy that I've been trading since then and I came back to the markets with a business plan a trading plan and the right mental approach to the business and since 2008 when I came back into the markets I've on an annual basis have been profitable I'm not concerned or emotionally invested in the outcome of individual trades my focus is not on the next one two three or even ten trades so that's on the next hundred trades because I know in that sample size my edge will demonstrate itself and so the data you can see on the screen is performance data back from 2013 because like I said when I came back into the markets 2008 over that five-year period I had some really some very strong years and and it was a time when friends and family saw what I was doing they wanted to get in on the action so I set up a managed account service which I've been running since 2013 and those are the figures that you can see for that for that service so that's my that's that's my main occupation I have a couple of other projects like I said with tickmills that market raisin producing daily market outlooks and charts of the day setups I'm watching you can you can subscribe to that through the tickmail blog another the other projects that I'm very passionate about and very proud of is effects career swap leading online education firm we develop retail trading talent talent taken through a process in a program I teach my strategies and then we we provide those successful in completing the process with a live funded account I'll post some links for for effects career swap for those who are interested in looking at that at the end of today's session so that gives you a flavor of who I am where I'm coming from and now let's think about where we are in terms of the markets those of you here the first for the first time today or just new to my my work I am I'm increasingly bearish the the US dollar and these are just a bunch of charts that highlights where I where I think we're going in terms of the dollar this is back in 2008 2009 when when markets bottomed it was obviously the back end of the the great financial crisis and when the markets bottomed the dollar topped and we also have some cyclic cyclicality within within respect to the dollar which tends to move in 16 year cycles and I think we have just completed a cycle top here another chart here that explains this in terms of how the dollar cycles and my view at the moment anyway is that we have come into a meaningful a meaningful period where we could see a protracted dollar bearish cycle obviously the corona crisis the trade wars are are underpinning concerns in the market and the leading federal reserve to flood the market with dollars and that's that's inflating assets stock market the stock market specifically at the same time then that's leading to softness in terms of the dollar another key dynamic that's going to start to become increasingly focused upon is the idea of a Trump losing the election and and Biden getting in and it's perceived that in an election year when the when the the incumbent loses that from a historical perspective the dollar has tended to struggle so this adds to this idea of of dollar weakness and specifically when you when we get a democratic president after a republican one that tends to be less supportive for the US dollar as as for the reasons you can see here with respect to fiscal austerity measures higher taxes less aggressive protectionist policies certainly Biden would would not adopt the same stance as as Trump with respect to to China and so this all basically underpins this idea that we could be moving into a phase now where the dollar is going to to weaken now obviously nothing moves in a straight line and we have seen a decent dollar decline at the moment we're going to look into the charts in a minute but i'm looking for a dollar correction in over the july august period and then i'm looking for another sustained move lower in the dollar as we head into the election i've got some information here from credit agricultural talking about flows in terms of the euro obviously the biggest counterpart to the dollar is the euro and and we can see that investors are starting to allocate capital into your into the euro zone obviously we've got a bunch of dynamics at the ECB coming up today and we've got this euro recovery funds which is the the great white hope at the moment and which is really been driving the the euro strength that we've seen but again this could be a setup where it's buy the rumor and then sell the fact when we probably don't get the the ideal deal or no deal is actually done at this weekend's meeting and then it's kicked down the road to the back end of july so what i'm looking at here in terms of the flows these are longer term capital flows so you know this isn't immediately impact trading decisions as such but when i'm thinking about structurally how i'm going to be looking to be positions over the second half of this year then i'm looking initially i'm going to be looking for a euro correction but ultimately i see the euro higher into the back end of the year i've got a chart here this is from city with respect to there the dollar view and and you can see they've got a bunch of annotation here but they're looking for a move down into the 86 level and and we currently trade just above 96 so you know there's quite a substantial move move lower and then obviously inversely we have the euro and upper euro targets at this stage on the basis we're holding our current lows will be towards 126 which is this 200 month moving average which you can see prices rotated around tested on several occasions so that would be the ultimate objective at this at this juncture looking for looking for euro strength one other factor to consider at the moment and why we've seen i think a bit of euro weakness creeping in is we've got a huge amount of option expirations going off about 20 billion this week at this in this 112-114 range so we tested just above 114 yesterday we're going to pull back we're ticking up a little bit again now but i'll be i'll show you another couple of charts that are quite interesting here with respect to the euro this is the how the euro trades around the ECB obviously we've got the press conference coming up for the ECB in about about 15 minutes here you can see that we often get some volatility around the press conference and then a pop higher but that tends to fade this is since legard took over this is an average of the of how the market has responded to legard press conferences this is the euro in its entirety the average and again you can see that we tend to get a tradable top in the euro in and around you know this Thursday Friday period and then tend to trade lower into the into the following week and so if we jump into the charts now we can have a look at what this means with respect to our our trading opportunities this is the one we want so this is the the DXY the dollar index and you can see we've got this ascending trend line support here we tested into it yesterday and we've got a bit of a pullback we're probing it again today if we can hold this low on a closing basis then what i'd be looking for would be a pop higher here in the dollar like i say over the coming four six weeks a bit of a grind higher initially targeting a retest of this descending trend line resistance here at the 9745 if we can get through there the ideal objective would be a move up back into prior range support here then we just draw that in for you so move an ideal objective will be into this area which certainly i'll be watching then for bearish reversal patterns to to potentially set short positions there now obviously if we don't get this this bullish close today and we can't hold the trend line and we close below then i'd be looking for a move certainly back into retest these prior days 95 66 but ultimately then i'd be looking for a test of this support through the coronavirus lows there that we saw on the 9th of march that was back down into 94 67 and from there then i'd be looking once again for a for a correction and certainly then back testing this descending trend line resistance again will be the first objective but from there obviously looking then at the potential for fresh short positions to target an ultimate break i see price breaking down through these prior lows and really getting down into these this 92 area in terms of the trend channel but ultimately if we think about that that city chart that i just shared just quickly go back to that you can see the scope in terms of the bigger trend channel that we get down into this 86 area so let's take a look at the euro now so we've got the euro it's broken out of its trend line resistance here and we're trading just above those highs now i could say i'd be watching the retest or certainly a test here this 114 97 got the weekly r3 114 95 so if we do get a pop here in terms of through the press conference with the ecb watching certainly tomorrow or later today to see if we get a reversal pattern because we've got some really nice momentum divergence developing down here and again not not that i'm talking about holding on to this position for a long time this would simply be a trade but i could then we could see a corrective move lower in the euro into into next week and probably some consolidation before building again i think to trade meaningfully through this 115 and ultimately looking initially for this 117 118 area as the as the next upside objective so looking for the potential for a reversal to develop in the today later today or tomorrow friday and that would be a short opportunity as as we probably get like i said this by the rumor the market's been bid up into this eurozone meeting this weekend and then we probably see some disappointments now i should caveat that because if we don't get me wrong if we if we do see this this fund come through and it's all agreed bells and whistles and the it's the the grand element of the fund is is agreed to by the frugal four nations then we could be trading meaningfully higher and i'd be looking for a straight move up to test this sending train line projected train line resistance up to 1755 that is it's possible it's not as as probable i don't think as to us being disappointed with uh with what happens this weekend and certainly we could see an equality move versus the last correction which would put us back down into this 112 1230 112 area where we could reassess then looking at long positions a couple of trades that i'm looking at here this is the dollar swiss we've got nice big outside day bullish reversal pattern from this retest of the support here at the 93 77 and if we go to the hourly charts i'm watching for a potential pullback here into the daily pivots and this prior range resistance so this would be the accumulation period and then we got the pop higher the first pullback here into this 94 26 could offer an intraday opportunity to get in with a nice tight risk reward set up there certainly watching for bullish reversal patterns in this 94 25 and we can then look to uh to target higher up into these 95 40 area so that's an intraday setup for those who are on the intraday charts i do most of my training off the daily time frame um another one that i've got that i'm watching here we've got this dollar CAD right through the sending train line support we're consolidating a little bit here this is a great setup because stops will be building below these lows so i've got an order position that i'm going to be running through 135 to to initially target a retest of 133 here in the canadian dollar got similar setup in the euro CAD obviously with this ecb we're a little bit more bullish we didn't get the reversal what i'm looking for in terms of entries with my trading is uh it's obviously i have this um proprietary indicators this volume wasted average price and for me to get in on the short side or to look at short positions the candle needs to close red versus the vwap that means the candle has to close below the vwap before i could be before i'd be looking at uh doing anything on the short side um let's see what else we got here i've got the ozzy card see we didn't get the close yesterday below the vwap we've got some nice momentum divergence into these new highs and um and let's see if we can get a close today just below the the daily pivot there 94 30 area would would offer again great risk reward because you can look at stops just above the high at this inside candle so i'll be watching that into the close tonight see if we close red and ideally just close sitting somewhere around that 94 40 area um what else we got here i've also got the kiwi card this is the chart i shared through the blog a while ago um we got the red closes here but the challenge with these these trades is this is what i've got running here is uh is a monthly vwap so this tells me what the volume wasted average price trend is on the monthly time frame and uh prefer to be trading with the higher time frame trend obviously this is daily chart so i didn't take that but one trade i'm running at the moment is the cad yen we've got um if we go to the let's just see here so this is the dollar card just quickly before i go into that cad yen and this is what i mean about trying to trades um with the higher time frame trends this is the daily chart this is the weekly chart this is the monthly chart and you can see candles are red um on both of these charts that tells me the weekly and the monthly trend is to the downside and then yesterday we got that break of the trend line so that's why i'm tracking this to try to take advantage of the momentum that's developing on the higher time frames now let's just change these to the cad yen so we can see uh the similar setup that i've got so that's the daily chart and let's see where we are the monthly so we've got a monthly that's bullish and a weekly but also is is looking like it's going to close bullish so again this this trade not only does it have the uh the candlestick pattern setup that i like to these outside bullish reversals uh or bearish reversals but also i can take advantage here of the um positive momentum coming from both the weekly and monthly charts as well so that so this is the filter i use for identifying more high probability setups um let's see where we are with the s and p 500 so we're testing opposed to this chart on the blog a while ago so we're testing we we've got a negative negative close yesterday but we didn't close below the v-wap so this candle is green on your charts on a normal chart if you look at it um the candle will probably be red i think um but what i'm looking for is a red close here this is then the quality objective versus the price swing high so this leg is equal to this leg not necessarily in time but it is in terms of price if we get a close above here so if we close above the 32 30 then the next upside objective is the 161 extension of this structure so that means that this move is 1.618 times this move and that would actually put us back into all-time highs so if we get a close above the 32 30 area then the the next objective becomes uh the 33 70 now if we get that close then that has implications um to my mind for the dollar which we would probably see um trading lower this is uh we're currently in this triangle here this is uh the dow jones dollar index equally weighted against the uh the euro sterling the yen and the australian dollar the other the dx y is the the broader basket dollar index um which is weighted against six other currencies the euro makes up the majority of that weighting so these are two dollar indexes um and i look for confirmations in terms of patterns if i'm thinking about trading these dollar pairs i want to see confirmations between between both of these dollar indexes really so you can see we're testing major support here in the dow jones dollar index and um looking for a close a red close sorry a green close to uh to confirm short positions potentially then in the uh the ozzy sorry the euro which is equally weighted like i say uh the sterling let's take a look at where we are there so you can see i posted this chart as well um we've been testing this 126 area we've been kicked back from there a few times now if you get a red close here today then we could see uh it is a sterling rollover certainly test range support down to this 122.60 with the next downside objective um and then the ozzy is the other components of this that so the dow jones dollar index where's the ozzy gone there it is so we're up here testing but i think um will prove to be uh some range resistance here this is the move prior to the uh the covid collapse so to speak and um and what i'm anticipating is again into this july and august period when the markets tend to be in in ranging at ranging wound um i've been looking for a potential pullback certainly back into this 68 20 but even as deep as the 67 area before once again looking to get bullish the ozzy um on a uh as we head into the uh the autumn but again nothing to do until i get that red candle close and then uh then we can assess risk reward setups et cetera see what else i've got on the radar for tonight we have the sterling cad so the sterling cad was a potential set up from yesterday we took out the um channel here the the semi-tron channel monthly vwap um was bare it is bearish the issue with this one was that the weekly one is um is bullish so um preferred the cad yen as a setup that had you should potentially have more momentum with it but again once once even once we've broken down here what we have the option to do then is to go into the intraday chart so let's look at it on the hourly and see where we are uh moving joins so um first first what i'd be looking for here is have we completed an equality move and you can see we have so this move could actually although looks very bearish on the the daily time frame um on the intraday time frame we've actually just completed what would be a standard corrective pattern and we you can see we're getting a strong reversal from here so what i've been watching for now is can we get back up into this area this 178 where we've got the uh the daily vwap which is represented by this this red line on this chart so if we can get back up into this area we get bearish reversal patterns then i can see if it's uh it's an opportunity to get in on that bigger daily time frame but certainly uh don't really be selling into this zone here because this could be the area where the buyers are stepping back in as we've just completed a standard equidistant swing correction which which looks something like that these corrections not don't always necessarily um map in terms of time and price but uh certainly when you get the price reaction like this there's a potential that this was just a corrective move versus uh versus the trend um let's quickly look at copper and go back to the daily time frame so copper obviously a big driver in terms of the commodity currencies and you can see we've been on a tear here in copper but uh this candle on a normal chart i'll just show this to you for demonstration purposes so if i take off the five period vwap you can see that candle was actually red but the reason why i use the five period vwap is to help me stay out of trending conditions and get them caught out so um once we get that closed if we get an inverse pin bar almost here um but as long as we close red we could see uh we could see some more selling in copper and that obviously then has implications for the ozzy kiwi and the cad so um just i guess to sum up briefly here what i'm looking for potentially now as we we head into uh the ecb press conference this afternoon starting in a minute um i'm looking for a potential pop higher in the euro and then i want to watch where we close tonight to see if we can get a bearish reversal candle that closes below uh the near-term vwap so close below 13 let's say 113.75 would be an opportunity to do something short term on the short side in the euro looking for disappointment really out of this uh this meeting this weekend in terms of the recovery funds um i've got positions in the cad yen i've got an order in for the the loony see if we get a breakthrough that 135 and i'm watching the ozzy cad the kiwi cad watching copper close tonight um and then see or most importantly if the dollar here can hold this support and break to the upside to confirm the potential for a correction so those are the charts those are the the flows and the the action that i'm watching what i can do now um it's open this up for uh for questions if anyone uh has a okay let's see we've got some questions here uh may you uh okay the kiwi cad let's look back at that one first i'll just take a quick sip of water here before we do so so the kiwi cad is obviously is in this ascending trend channel and we've we've basically just completed we we exceeded it slightly an equidistant swing move here so you can see this leg versus that correction into that high we've got that red reversal candle continuing to reverse lower here um the reason why i wasn't in this it didn't take this as a short position is that we're trading against both the monthly and the weekly um v-waps which are both bullish i'll uh let me go back to that multi chart and i'll just show you so if we change that to the kiwi card and we go kiwi card so you can see here we're bullish on both the monthly and the weekly timeframe now if we if we get a close here that we let we close below 8810 that would flip the weekly um uh weekly trend bearish and so then what you'd be looking for ultimately would be a break of this channel and then any move back into we test the channel's resistance with a with a reversal pattern would be an opportunity on on the short side to play with the weekly trend but like i say what i prefer to do is as much as possible is be trading with these higher timeframe trends as they provide uh you know more momentum orientated trading opportunities um the swissie let's go back to that so the swissie has tested this support here 9370 we've held it a bunch of times we're a big outside reversal candle yesterday and what i was saying um for for those who are looking at the intraday time frames because of the hourly what i'd look for here is a pullback now uh to test the 9420 area and then i'd be watching for bullish reversal patterns i.e. a candle that closes green above the near-term VWAP where you can set long positions with a tighter risk reward and then always what i'm looking for initially in terms of the uh the profit objectives is the equality move so if we if we hold these highs we pull back into here you can see that the the initial objective for me only from where we bottom would be the equality move and then the 161 extension is that uh is that help uh anonymous attendee um what about gold how are we going to 1900 um no i don't i i don't think we're going to be going there in in a uh a straight line as such let's pull up the data chart it's a pretty crowded position here gold and um and we're trading at the 161 extension of this prior move we're hugging this trend channel to be honest with you a close back through um through these lows here 1791 and i think we uh we could have a decent correction or a shake out when you get these trades that are you know the the darling of the market so to speak they're very crowded um and we're not quite seeing we're starting to lose momentum here you can see the momentum studies down here are diverging and we're struggling to make and sustain new grounds so i'm actually i'd be in intermediate term uh short term bearish what i'd be looking for them would be an equality move so i mean i can easily see us trading back down to 1725 before then looking to build uh the potential for another leg higher but i don't at this stage see uh see us breaking meaningfully higher um so i think i mean in the long run yeah i you know i there's certainly a case for for gold higher with these uh with these central banks just uh peddle to the medal so to speak with respect to liquidity measures so i do see the case for gold going higher the long term but at this juncture here and now the next trade for me in terms of gold would actually be on the short side before reload before you could look to reload on the long side from better better levels is my uh is my take on it annult um hoisin asks uh euro yep so like i said the euro for me um i'm looking for a bearish reversal today or tomorrow and i think what i will anticipate we're going to see is a corrective move into uh july and sorry into the back end of july in august if we go back to the presentation you look here these are seasonal performances and you can see that august has a tendency to be relatively weak for the fx majors and um and the dollar tends to fare okay so again during july and august where you've got thinner markets you haven't got as many uh many traders at their desks you can expect markets to range and so that's why you know i can see us you know depending upon the outcome of this this this this weekend but certainly the if we think about historical uh historically similar type uh events with the euro zone tends to be a bit of a disappointment don't get me wrong i mean they're they're certainly going to have this fund um but i just don't see it all being smooth sailing it's it's probable or possible certainly that candidates kick down the road and they're going to have another meeting at the end of end of july um and that would allow for some consolidation in the euro so at this juncture the next trade um for me would be uh i'd be looking on the short side but i'm up but after we get through the summer i get i'll be very bullish uh the euro sterling uh etc as i you know as i have a very uh or i i perceive that there are a lot of downside risks to the dollar heading into september october and the the election in november let's see do i have any other questions um did you get that hoisin okay does anyone else have a chart they want me to take a look at you can type into the chat or into the q&a box and i'll uh i'll take a look at any any charts that i haven't covered this week um i tend to just uh what i what i like to do in these sessions is give you a you know an overview of the market dynamics flows etc and then just look at the specific setups really that i'm uh that i'm tracking at the moment and trades i'm in and uh and we'll update you accordingly okay if there aren't any other questions i'd like to thank everybody for their time i hope this is this has been useful for you like i say we're going to be doing these every thursday same time and i'll update you each week on the trades that i've identified in the prior week uh let you see the good the bad and the ugly um like i say focus on process process over outcome just playing the probabilities okay thanks very much everyone and uh and have a good week