 Okay, energy 808 the cutting edge with Marco Mangelsdorf who joins us by zoom and VoIP and in all manner of things From here. Well, you're not a hero. Are you Marco? Where are you? No, my friends and my neighbor. I'm a farther away neighbor right now I'm in the southern part of the beautiful San Francisco Bay area. Ah good. Okay. Your voice sounds like you're more distant What can I say anyway? Let's talk about new green deal part there We talked about it a little bit last time, but let's flush it out this time and let's see where we can you know Figure out as to how it will affect Hawaii Or it's or the discussion of it will affect Hawaii because we're not sure the new green deal is actually going to be a reality So what's in the package? Well, yeah, so let's kind of start off on the macro and then we'll kind of burrow or wait to a more micro analysis of the the aloha states and the green new deal is a Program very ambitious program and plan and strategy all the above that was developed by a number of shall we say more green more progressive leaning activists and Elected representatives that took the oath of office and in Washington early part of January including a representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from from New York and Ed Markey senator from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and it is a It's a very very ambitious plan to Change change the way the American economy works So one one pundit described it as quote a massive program of investments in clean energy Jobs and infrastructure meant to transform not just the energy sector, but the entire economy It is meant both to decarbonize the economy and to make it fairer and more just So it is it is truly a plan strategy epic proportions akin to as I mentioned a couple weeks ago whether you want to go back to FDR Franklin Dillon arose about New Deal 1930s or LBJ's great society program from 64 68 so it is bold and ambitious and far from incremental and of course the devil will be in the details but the The ask is of a speaker Nancy Pelosi to establish what would in effect be a select committee That would specifically be established to come up with a new deal green new deal And it would be made up of 15 members total From the house and six of them would be from the minority party the Republicans and nine from the Democrats And they would have a year to come up with something which would take us into sometime early Early 2020 through an election year and then make its way through the house Which is democratically controlled and then probably be stuck going nowhere in the Republican controlled the US Senate But the thinking up to mystically if there were to be a Democratic majority in house Democratic majority in the Senate starting in January 2021 and a Democrat Allah J. Insley or Kamala Harris or Someone else who's strongly supportive of this green new deal approach then then the new president would have a package essentially ready to or soon ready to submit to Congress and You know it's conceivable that sometime in 2021 The Congress would pass and and the president would sign a green new deal. That's of course speaking Optimistically with we have a long way to go to get there, but There's a couple of you concerns about it, you know, and so okay the Democratic House and the committee even though it's a mixed committee if it comes up with You know liberal solutions in the new green deal recommendations and And I was you would certainly get stuck in this Congress that they're not going to go anywhere in the Senate But that would that be good or bad or the attempts of the Democrats to win the presidency? Because if it's too left-wing, you know, don't you think that that's going to turn off some some people in the middle some moderates who want to see incremental change instead of You know dramatic change Well, that's a great question today, and it's critically important So you post just the right question and I believe that The time for action for both action is now and this is an opportunity to see just what kind of support there is and I would like to think that Given the considerable backlash against this president and against what he represents what he continues to represent that Assuming that you know as we talked about two weeks ago assuming that this can be packaged in Such a way and pitched in such a way that it is number one relatively easy to understand and to that the bullet points are designed, you know in a legitimate and honest fashion they're designed to be able to to appeal to those individuals many of them Many voters who don't have the time and luxury to take a deeper dive Let's say that as you and I can and others can so the packaging is going to be all important Of course the naysayers of which is already a firestorm of gloom and doomers and and flat earthers as I'll call them Are clobbering this you know from one end to the next and in fact interestingly Majority leader Mitch McConnell from Kentucky is Wanting to put some type of green new deal bill before the Senate for about sooner rather than later Why because he sees it as political advantage to his political advantage in the public and party's political advantage To essentially get the 47 Democrats in the Senate to I guess vote on it and and and and have that conceivably be an albatross around their neck for the next election cycle Yeah, maybe it's fighting it's fighting fire with backfire You know that they take possession of the issue they make it a Republican Republican initiative in the Senate now or next year Maybe they think they can undo the Democratic initiative in the house And make themselves look good, but let me ask you this though and the question always comes to mind So we're gonna we're gonna have this election. We're gonna have a rambunctious campaign We're gonna have a lot of people involved And and the question is what put yourself in Donald Trump's shoes just for a moment What is he gonna say about the new green deal in order to in order to undermine the Democratic initiative? Of course granted. He's going to try to undermine the individuals who were involved Probably even the Republicans on that select committee But what is he going to say about the initiative itself in order to try to you know pull the wings out of it before before it ever gets to the election? Well, he's already been talking about it Jay He's been saying hyperbolic things and of course what else would you expect from from a president that there's essentially Hyperbole is his middle name and exaggeration as well is that he's painting the picture of oh, yeah I'm all in favor of it. I'm all in favor of the Democrats pushing it to the Democrat Party pushing this bill and With the idea that you know in his mind That's Ocasio-Cortez and others seek to ban all air travel. They seek to outlaw possible fuels within a short amount of time They seek in time these dramatic extremists measures that will destroy our economy destroy our way of life destroy destroy destroy So he's he's taking his cue from the folks Fox News and other progressive organizations that are Shaking things out of context and and blowing them up to be really super scary things So that he's already doing it. So I mean he's already feeding into the base. That's what he's famous for right? He's maintaining his base and gambling apparently that he could he and his forces can Achieve re-election not by expanding his base, but by nailing down His base to show up at the polls now that that was lightning in the bottle in 2016 I would try to fully admit that many talking heads right minds analysts statisticians Political scientists and in the light, you know thought there's no this the guy was gonna work I would this guy was gonna win But he was able to nail down his base and he's thinking I did it before I'll do it again But I don't think that's gonna work. Okay. I think I think we got you know number one He's gonna make ad hominem attacks against the people on the committee or anyone in the Congress who supports this as he always does to his he's he's going to Treat it as a as Damaging or destroying the economy his economy That he built so well that he created all by himself quite remarkable and thirdly that That is it's a kind of socialism, isn't it? He's gonna try to tap into, you know the attack on Bernie Bernie Sanders before And so what you have is those three arguments that I can see and my question to you Marco is with all those three arguments And I don't know what Sanderson's you know will do if he's if he gets any further with his campaign efforts, but those three arguments will Will Trump get any traction on those arguments among the the moderates among the middle That people at both sides are trying to bring to their to their position What will it ring true to anybody in the middle? it depends on how the The counter arguments are fashion and if you go from the perspective a very legitimate perspective that for example The green economy in terms of energy to be energy solar and wind has been a fantastic job producer Especially compared to the dirtier forms of the energy economy They're that's indisputable and that's going to continue you're going to have fewer and fewer people working in Conventional energy the sector of the economy more and more in the renewables actors So job creation is not just the talking point. It actually happens to be true So you have to focus on job creation prosperity clean in a cleaner environment and and rebut in very strong Fashion this notion that it's going to the degree new deal is going to somehow Destroy our very way of life now You know, okay, okay your Cortez with it was it South by Southwest this past weekend and you know She's one of the glittery Rising stars of the Democratic Party for you know, a number of good reasons But one of the things she said I don't have it right in front of me But one of the things she said was essentially slam on capitalism that the capitalism that's being practiced in the US right now is is Forget the the attitude she was using but it's essentially broken it only benefits a small few Rather than the majority of the population now that there's some truth to that obviously because wealth disbursement or wealth Accumulation at the top undoubtedly has been going up over the decades. I mean, that's indisputable, but when you start going after Start attacking capitalism It's easy to be pigeonholed by by one's opponents by her opponents as as being a socialist or radical socialist So clearly now that's what Trump and and I mentioned McConnell and others are Hoping very much that their strategy is going to be to pin the S label Socialists on those Democrats who come anywhere close to to supporting the Green New Deal One thing that comes to mind is wouldn't it be wouldn't it be better Marco in terms of trying to win the election? I mean they can do the new Green Deal after the election But to make it a mandate for the election and this is pretty ambitious Maybe too ambitious wouldn't it be a better idea to to try to hit some major Issues that you know people are even in the middle especially in the middle are concerned about for example clean energy Environment those things the ones that draw people to the notion of a new green Green Deal and leave the other You know more fringy initiatives out for later later discussion in order to avoid His attacks in order to avoid You know the the center the moderates You know washing their hands of this wouldn't it be better to limit it to energy and environment? No, I don't agree Jade because any Trump and and his supporters are going to attack attack attack regardless of the incremental or more than incremental change that the other side is proposing and I really do feel that Now is the time if not now when now is the time that Rather than going the incremental route, which has been tried On and off for quite a while Has has left something lacking in terms of progress So I do have an ability that that's you know Whatever comes at the end of this select committee assuming that Pelosi Establishes it and they do do Start down this path that it's going to be something that is going to be more than just incremental and I think that there's a good chance that that could be a winning a winning topic or winning stand for the Democrats Another kind of just thing to notice or to notice that under Pelosi's Speakership from 2007 to 2011 There was a quote select committee on energy independence and global warming But apparently activists in the incoming class of the the social Democrats of Democrats who took office a couple months ago They wanted something much bolder and God bless them for that or God's blessing for that Because I think something bolder is is needed more so now than four years ago, especially in light of Your record record worldwide global mean temperatures and extreme weather events I mean, what is it going to take to Wapis truly Wapis? What kind of Wapis outside the head are we going to need to to act or seek to act more boldly? So I believe it will be a winning issue for us Democrats who do I think I think that depends in large part on whether the Millennials the young people come forward and vote Because they're the ones who you know would tend to support I think far as I know tend to support dramatic change And if they come forward, I think it has a better chance But then to go back to one thing you said you said now is the time and Marko I totally agree now is the time for a one minute break now is the time Haha, we'll be right back Hi, I'm Rusty Komori host of Beyond the Lines on think-tech Hawaii My show is based on my book also titled Beyond the Lines and it's about creating a superior culture of excellence Leadership and finding greatness. I interview guests who are successful in business sports and life Which is sure to inspire you in finding your greatness Join me every Monday as we go Beyond the Lines at 11 a.m Aloha Hey, loha. My name is Andrew Lening. I'm the host of security matters Hawaii airing every Wednesday here on think-tech Hawaii live from the Studios I'll bring you guests. I'll bring you information About the things in security that matter to keeping you safe your co-workers safe your family safe to keep our community safe We want to teach you about those things in our industry that you know may be a little outside of your experience So please join me because security matters. Aloha Yes, sir. We're back. It's time energy 808 the cutting edge So, you know the the central part of this is energy and energy is like at least to the world that that watches us Hawaii's middle name What effect is it as the the new energy deal? The new clean deal have on Hawaii. How could Hawaii participate? You know, there are some people in Hawaii who are swearing that they're gonna go to the mainland and campaign as state in various states on Their own nickel on to support, you know a popular candidate and I think in large in large degree That would be a candidate who was on the the side of energy and the new green deal Of course, which is a blue state so question How how how does this interact with Hawaii and Hawaii's initiative and aspiration to be a clean energy state? Well, I think Hawaii has been ahead of the curve Substantially in my opinion day over the decades. We had a solar tax credit back then it was for solar thermal going back to get this 1976 or 74, but you know is when I was in high school So we've we've the state has been supporting renewable energy and trying to reduce energy dependence on Fossil fuels for decades. There was a Hawaii clean energy initiative. You will recall 2008 That Connie Lau from HCI Linda lingo and others committed to so that's going on 11 years ago So and the DVD gay and the legislature committing over the 2015 to 100% of renewables and power generation by 2045 and I happen to think we stand a good chance of Beating that deadline by probably a good number of years assuming we continue a rapid deployment so I think we're already ahead of the curve and There will be more and more electric vehicles available in the next couple three years there's a big auto show in Geneva recently that Virtually all the all the major automakers were there bringing a new vehicles to market if the Chinese sooner or later We'll be passing through all the various Department of Transportation hoops and introducing their Manufactured electric vehicles in the US sooner or later. I think that's the number of both So that's kind of the macro brush more specifically I'm looking at one particular bill right now. Let's you know bring it to the real world in a timely fashion Before you do that mark I want to make you a want to make you a democratic activist for a moment and I want to I want to send you to say Minnesota in order to talk to people and try to Rouse You know voters and votes for a democratic candidate and to speak on behalf of Hawaii What would you say on behalf of Hawaii to try to encourage them? toward clean energy and a clean new deal Are you sending me the Minnesota to make an argument about Hawaii? Yeah, to speak for Hawaii. What can we offer them? Why would they listen to us? Yeah Well, we can offer them the experience that we have gained Sometimes rather painful of the past five to plus years in terms of We lead the state is solar deployment both solar Do the country in solar deployment as far as solar electric and solar thermal on a per capita basis and our utilities have Done pretty marvelous and exceptional things cutting-edge things to be able to accommodate record amounts of renewable energy so One of things we can offer those states in on the mainland that haven't really gone all that far down that the path that we have It's the experience that we've gleaned also in terms of battery deployment what we've learned things that they can Can take guidance from in terms of not making similar mistakes or having similar issues Let's go to that bill you were talking about I'd like to hear about that. We have other issues to cover here today So Senate bill 1163 was introduced the beginning of the session on the Senate side and Would have done that would do two things I should say the first version would do would have done two things It would have started a ramp down of the states renewable energy investment tax credit Which has been around for decades and has no current sunset date And it would make a new tax credit available to add for adding Storage energy storage to existing renewable energy systems 25 percent with a cap and I was in favor of that bill because I have been to believe an exponential increase in storage deployment is not only a good idea, but a urgent idea and Loan behold the Senate Energy Committee in the Senate Ways and Moons committee the money committee they took out the provision that would add a Tax credit for storage so it was voted on a week or so ago in the Senate it passed over to the house Nicole Lohan representative Nicole Lohan will be hearing this bill scheduled here the bill tomorrow in her energy and environment protection committee And I'm sure she's hearing from all kinds of solar advocates and others to not allow this bill To go forward as is So I'm I'm disturbed and I'm kind of shocked that given the fact that we have six Count them six major storms including four hurricanes Blast through the central Pacific last year and scared the the blank out of some of us Rightly so that are some legislators Do not feel that a modest tax credit for energy storage is worth it I'm kind of shocked. This is a financial issue or is somebody actively lobbying on Some substantive basis against a tax credit for storage I got to believe Jay that it's largely financial for money base the greater uncertainty about the state's finances You know the the WAM folks and the finance committee folks in the outside They're typically risk averse and you know, everybody comes to them for more money more money more money And of course, there's a limited pot so A department of taxation is probably against having a new tax credit for storage So, you know, I'm not dissing their motives necessarily, but I think they're they're very absurdly misplaced And I know that's kind of hard harsh language But I mean, is it going to take a Puerto Rico like event to clobber one or more islands for us to say G We really do need a heck of a lot more energy storage to make for a more resilient career That's that's what just burn the answer is maybe that sadly maybe so maybe we'll have to be a Puerto Rico before people get it Let me let me have a one last thing and this goes to a point you made earlier about how we had You know, we had a good chance of meeting the 20 45 hundred percent goal for clean energy and maybe even sooner But there was a piece in the paper not too long ago About the the growth of renewable energy In the period 2017 and 2018 Which indicated there was no growth That we were still at the same 27 percent of renewables as opposed to all energy And that's that's a year. We should have been increasing What happened? Well, a small modification to what you just said Jay the Hawaiian Electric Company is KIC they have to report to the Public Utilities Commission on the annual basis What their renewable percentages were in the previous calendar year? So KIC has not yet reported that data to the Commission So I can't comment on what their 2018 figures are because we don't have that yet But for a Hawaiian Electric which incorporates Helco Hiko Miko Big Island Malli proper Lenai Molokai and Oahu The percentage of renewables in 2017 with 27 percent the percentage of renewables for them in 2018 with 27 percent That means that for all intents and purposes it was flat now the big reason for that Lack of progress is because putting geothermal went offline in early May of last year So, you know, I don't blame Helco by any means for PGV going offline. That's met on payways business But it's kind of striking that the loss of one single renewable energy power plant Has a rather significant impact on the entire percentage for all the Hawaiian Electric companies And that's a 38 megawatt facility, isn't it? And so if you know just hypothetically if you recalculated all that and you said yes 27 last year and 27 this year that you added back the 38 megawatts from Pune geothermal venture then we would have an increase no because if you add that back You get more than 27 percent, right? Yes, yes, you know PGV had gone on had been online Helco would have gone up from they were 57 percent renewable in 2017 They dropped to 43 and change in 2018 and they're saying that if they had PGV online the whole 2018 they would have been 60 plus percent Well, you know, that's that's all well and good to say well if this is happening this had happened They would be there, but I mean that's that's not what happened So I guess again my I was just kind of strict by one single power plant in all of the Hawaiian Electric Territory service territories one power plant goes out and they get clobbered in terms of their flats And I think you know on the flip side Why even though we don't have the numbers the key how you see for the first time ever I think we will see that they will have the highest percentage for a single island The highest percentage of renewables when they do report in 2018 So, you know, I don't want to keep the co-op or into too loudly because I don't they don't have to but It's you know, and it thinks will be better in the next couple years because Hawaiian Electric is bringing on board multiple large-scale utility Renewable energy solar plus storage, but for the time being for the next 12 18 24 months, you know, these power plants take a while permitting and Getting them online. So there's not going to be a tremendous increase in in Hawaiian Electric service territories Over the next 12 to 18 months would be Marco's prediction. Yeah, and and PGV is coming back online, right? Isn't that the latest news that the the road the access road is open and they plan they plan to come back isn't it true during The earnings call that or Matt did not too long ago Their CEO Stated that they were planning or hoping or thinking the PGV would be back online by 12 31 2019 and if you believe that I will wager you a meal at any Any fine dining establishment on your island? I'll fly over and take you to dinner If that's the case because I don't believe that is going to happen. I Was going to ask you for a closing comment Marco, but I want to leave it right there because I may get a free dinner and Maybe you will too. Thank you Marco Marco Mangostoff joining us from California this time here on energy 808 the cutting edge. Thank you Marco. Aloha. I will see you at the Pacific Club J My treat