 Good afternoon and welcome to this market sentiment trading presentation by myself, Charlie Burton, in association with TickMill. Before we go into the presentation itself, I have to go through TickMill's risk disclaimer like we always do because regulation is so important in the financial markets. The disclaimer is that the material providing this information is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views and information and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to Charlie Burton and not to the author's employer, organisation, committee or other group or individual company. I am not employed by TickMill just so you know. High risk warning, CFDs are complex instruments and come with high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage 75% and 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with TickMill UK and TickMill Europe Limited respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. These are our regulatory warnings. Okay, let's get into the presentation. We're going to go straight off with a trading story here from myself. So this trading story starts back in late 2016 and I'm going to show you a chart of the euro dollar here. So this presentation is going to be looking mostly at the dollar and the euro dollar being the biggest currency pair globally and also looking at stock indices. So this is just a straightforward monthly timeframe chart of the euro dollar and I've already circled that period down there in 2017. So what had been happening is that the euro overall for years from after peaking back in 2008 had been in this general decline, which really accelerated through 2014 into a short-term bottom there in 2015. And then we fast forward into 2016 in this last couple of bars as we came down into the end of 2016 and into the beginning of 2017. So what was going on? Well in that November, I distinctly remember delivering a presentation to a number of traders about this very pattern and what was going on in the market because what was happening at that time was that there was an extreme amount of bearishness towards the euro dollar pair. So market participants were looking for the euro dollar to go down to parity. So down to one, come back down to parity. And that was the talk of the town so to speak for months leading to this decline into the very end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. It was all about when is the euro going to go hit parity. And coupled with that, I delivered this presentation talking about how I would like the euro, fun enough, to come down and breach these past lows here and we're going to talk all about this in this presentation and that I was short at that time going into the back end of 2016. But also that I was also looking for a reversal to come in at some point whether we got down to parity and reversed or potentially even not. So we're going to discuss that in a moment. Now what was interesting? During that time, I was being interviewed on a tip TV over here in the UK in the December as price had come down to new lows. And the interviewer was saying to me, Charlie, when do you think the euro is going to get to parity? And every question that he was asking of me in relation to the dollar and the euro dollar was all about obviously the euro is going to go to parity and that type of language. And when do you think it's going to go to parity? There was no, do you think it might get to parity, Charlie? It was obviously, Charlie, euro is going to get to parity. When do you think it might be? So the assumption from the financial interviewer was that the euro is going to go to parity. So again, on the back of a huge swathe of negative sentiment out there, even the financial interviewers were very much in line with that negative sentiment. So I'm sitting there in this interview thinking, well, there's a lot of assumptions being made here. Maybe I need to be looking at the other side of the coin. And so I knew what was developing and what was developing and many of you will have already spotted this on this chart was there's this thing called a divergence down here. Now, this is a straight MACD indicator down the bottom here. And it's normal settings that your default settings, which is any charting provider will have the default settings if you put an MACD indicator, which is 12, 26, and nine. That's the default settings. So we had this divergence down here. The blue line made a low down here with these lows. And then when, even though price made a new low here, the blue line, as you can see, was making a much higher low. So at that point, price has made new lows, but the MACD indicator is diverging with that. So that was, but that's on a monthly chart. How would you go and trade that on a monthly chart? Well, you don't. You do a combination of multiple timeframe analysis. That was just the big picture analysis. And then I had to take that down to the smaller picture. But the big picture was, I knew we had these divergences building, but we still need to wait for a sign that the market may well turn. It's all very well us looking at it right now. Years after the fact, how did we know that the market was going to turn? Well, the first thing is you don't know. No one knows. And that's why we use stop losses. But certainly the sentiment backdrop at that time was exceptional. It was very, very negative. So when you see extremes in sentiment, you have to look the other way, because if everybody is short a market, who's left to short in order to keep the price moving south. And if everybody's short, it only takes just one person, so to speak, to be buying and to turn the market back around. So if everyone or an extreme of market participants are short, it doesn't take a huge amount to turn it back around the other way. And that's the basis of extremes in market sentiment. So anyway, so we had that recipe there of extreme bearishness coming into the beginning of that year. But with I knew that we had this potential divergences sitting there building on the monthly chart. Now I'm I can't wait for this to why could wait for this to all turn around and then get in somewhere over here once it's already been coming up for several months. But of course, as a trader, I'm going to go down to the smaller timeframes and see if there's any reversal signs there on the smaller timeframes. So if I now come to the daily chart of what was going on there, that was literally at the end of December 2017, sorry 2016, and the beginning of January 2017 here where we bottomed. In fact, I'd actually got in down here because why we had a divergence on the daily chart as well. So that was great. So we got that building divergence potential on the monthly at the time, but the daily was already divergent diverging. So once I'd seen some price action coming up once we'd seen that then then I could use that. So I was actually in here with a stop below that low had a nice it was started to have a nice run. What happened? Oh, it rolled over stopped me out when it just spiked down into that low. I'm always very honest about what I do and very open and transparent about what I do as a trader. I'm a professional money manager. I have no vested interest in trying to tell you all the trades that work out and ignore the ones that don't. So in actual fact, I'd already been long once and then it nicked me out and then reset when it bounced. So once it bounced, I was back in there with a stop below that low and this trade ended up because of the extreme in market sentiment. I knew that market sentiment, when you get extremes, it doesn't work itself off in the space of a week or two weeks. So the potential combined with a big picture pattern on the monthly chart that divergence that was there on the monthly as well meant that I didn't have to treat this as just merely a trade based on the daily timeframe and just hold it for a nominal duration on the daily. So in fact, along with other analysis, I was looking up at a target around 1.14 and a half was in my actual target. It actually went substantially higher than that, but it didn't matter. From a risk to reward perspective, you can see if I was getting in down here with the stop down the low that you can see that was great risk reward. Plus, if any of you have seen any of my other webinars that I've done with TickMill, then I add into trades as they go in my favor as well. So I build the position over time as well. So there's that addition there. Okay. So I've got a massive extreme in sentiment and I had these divergences. Let's go on to the next slide now. So that's the first just snippet of a story there. What we now need to do is look at some other examples and how actually specifically you can go about doing it. I've just given some overall examples with that story from 2017 about just how bearish the sentiment was, but how do we tangibly get hold of that? Well, let's carry on then. So we can actually look and see what hedge funds and large speculators were doing at that time as well. So we knew that the news outlets were all talking about the financial news outlets. We're talking about how the demise of the euro and the euro is going to go to parity and maybe lower. But what were the hedge funds and the large speculators doing? Well, in fact, they were adding to long positions. So the big specs that the hedge funds weren't doing what, funny enough, the overall market sentiment was doing. And we can see this from looking at the commitment of traders reports. So the commitment of traders report, for those of you that don't know what it is, it's information that's released from the CFTC on a weekly basis whereby large futures traders have to register their trades. And then that data is released every Friday. And so we get to see the positioning of large speculators up until it's always out of date by the time it's released on a Friday because it only gives you the data up until the close of business on Tuesday. But it doesn't matter. We can still use that as a general, giving us a general overview of how they large speculators are positioned. One thing to mention at this stage is that sometimes you want to be following those large speculators. But just like sheep and just like retail traders, there are times when large speculators and hedge funds are wrong as well. And they get caught offside. And I'm going to show you those occasions during this presentation as well. So firstly, let's go and now have a look at the cot data. So normally, in order to get commitment of traders data, there's a nice website called tradingster.com forward slash cot. And that gives you a nice breakdown of the commitment of traders report and into a more simplistic fashion. And I'm going to go through that with you here today. Now here is a screenshot to start off with just to show you what the positioning was like. So we're talking about that 2017 low. This is just gives a weekly chart up here. So it's not very clear. But this is that low that I was just showing on my previous charts of that euro dollar. But as we can see, the large speculators overall were far less short than they had been at the lows in 2015 here and then here as well, when the market made another low in late 2015. And so and by the time we got to that beginning of 2017, when I was getting long, their positioning was heading north, not south. They weren't building short positions, were they? They were coming out of shorts overall. And far less and less with every week that passed. They were less short, as we can see from their positioning chart here. So in this instance, I've got a market where we've got huge amount of bearishness towards the euro dollar. But looking at the commitment of traders report, they actually were doing the opposite. Plus, I've got technical reasons with divergences to also be getting long euro dollar. And that then created a nice backdrop for taking that that long trade back in there in 2017. So I wanted to put that first together as that first story there in relation to marrying technical charts and what you're seeing on a chart along with sentiment and then also getting the deriving the sentiment from what's going on with those large speculators and hedge funds. So when I was getting long down here, this is the monthly chart again, but when I was long down here, we now can see that those large speculators were also massively coming out of their prior short positions. And so I was long down, like I said, down in this zone down here and then ran it up into the round the one 14 zone. So with add ins and banking a bit of profit along the way. So that's how opener to market sentiment and starting to think about the what the press are doing and what the financial press are saying plus also what market participants are doing. And I'm not talking about retail traders in this presentation. This is about the professionals out there. And like I've already said, it's a case of gauging when you think the professionals are right or wrong because sometimes when they are at absolute extremes in their positioning, usually that's when they're more likely to be wrong at a turn. So let's move on. So let's have a look at tradingster.com first of all. So let me just see if I can bring that up. Can I just get a check that you can now see my the website here tradingster? Can I just confirm that you can see that? Just pop it into the chat box. Yep, great. Okay, thank you. So if you come to tradingster.com forward slash cart, then this will come up with a web page like this. So what I tend what I do is I'll always use the legacy reports, which is the more simplistic report. There is a secondary report, which is which was introduced several years ago, which tries to break down the report into more component parts in in simplistic terms. I tend to just look at the legacy. So if I want to have a look at, for example, the positioning of the S&P traders, then I'll go to the E-mini stock index, click on legacy, and then it will give me a huge amount of information. And I'm just going to quickly show you what you're looking at here. So when you first click on it, what we're interested in is the non commercials. Okay, the non commercials are your hedge funds, HF for your hedge funds, and your large speculators who have to report their positions. Commercials are essentially the brokers. So we're not interested in that what they're doing, they're just taking the opposite side of what the hedge funds are doing because they're facilitating their trades. So I'm not interested in what the commercial is doing. I'm not interested in non reportables either. I'm only interested in the non commercials, which are your large speculators in the market. So what happened last week, what I'm interested in is the changes down here. So what happened last week is that we can see that long positionings increased by 27,000 contracts and short positioning increased by nearly 36,000 contracts. So although there were increases in both longs and shorts last week on a net basis, that means that overall, they're more net short last week than long. So if I now scroll down, I'm not too interested in these bar charts, you can look at those. What I'm interested in this first chart here, which is that net positions. Now, when you come to this, it's got three lines on here. I'm not interested in the commercials, and certainly not interested in the non reportables. So if you just click on that, it will get rid of the non reportables. The commercials are just the opposite of the non commercials, which is our hedge funds. So we might as well just click on commercials. So we just have the blue line on here. Now, like I've just said, they increased their net, their short positions by 35,000 contracts last week, as opposed to only 27,000 longs. So net, net, it brought their, their overall net, net positioning down a little bit last week. And so that's what we see here. Okay. So that's all I'm showing you at the moment is just the basics of this. If you want to come into it, you can come down and there's other, you can actually break down and look at the just the longs only and just the shorts only. I don't even bother myself. I'm only interested really is the, in the net positioning. And then you can scroll out. So I, this, it defaults to a one year zoom, you can scroll out to max, which will give you the best part of 10 years worth of data. And then you can see, well, where are we, where are we right now relative to historical positioning. And there are times when the large speculators are at extremes in positioning. And we're going to be talking about that, because that actually happened in the S&P just this year, just literally just a few months ago. And as you can see, they were at absolute massive short positions just a few months ago. So we're going to delve into that in just a moment. So we're either looking at extremes in positioning, are they at new extreme highs or new extreme lows, or is their activity diverging from what is going on on the chart bit like, like I just showed with that euro dollar back from 2017. So you can have a play with it, you can change your zoom, you can, you've got a scroll here and you can change your zoom so you can have a look as much or as little data as you want. And it's a useful site. It takes time to get used to seeing the patterns within it, but that's what generally I'm looking for is either divergences in their behavior relative to the price, or they're at extremes because sometimes when they're at extremes, they can be on the wrong side of the market collectively. Oops, that's that. Right, now let's go back to the slideshow. So we can now look at more sentiment examples using cot data. So let's go and do that right now. Now I'm giving you an example here from for the euro dollar. A lot of the time I'm trading the euro dollar because it is the biggest currency pair globally, the most liquid. And so essentially you're trading, when you're trading the euro dollar, you are trading the index in the main because the euro makes up something like 56% of the entire basket of the dollar index is the euro and then the rest is made up with pound sterling and Japanese yen and several of the other major currencies. So I like to trade the largest currency pair, but I do trade other currency pairs of course as well, but from a sentiment perspective and looking at what the big players are doing, then I quite like looking at the euro and the dollar and the S&P futures contract. So back in 2020, the euro dollar had a great run. We had COVID back here, so this is on a weekly timeframe here. So all the volatility during that early stages of COVID and then the euro started to push upwards here and it ended up having quite a nice run through that year. It ran up into the summer, this was the July and August period up here, pulled back a little bit into August, September and then carried on rallying into the end of the year, literally into the December of that year. Now, what was interesting as we came into December was what? Sentiment because at that point, fun enough, what were Reuters and Bloomberg and some of the financial media talking about? There were headlines at that time I was reading in Reuters saying 2021, the demise of the dollar, i.e. the reporters were talking about the likes of the euro continuing higher. The demise of the dollar in 2021 they were talking about and this was right at the end of 2020. So again, that gives us warning flags. When we start to see headline articles talking about the demise of the dollar, we need to start looking the other way. Fairbord, yes, it's been recorded, yes. So we need to be able to start looking the other way. And like with that early, the first example I gave of the euro dollar, we have divergences the other way round now. So this time, we've got this peak here and then we've made a higher high over here and yet we're now making a lower high here on the MACD signal line. So we've now got again a divergence. So then you wait for price to come down off of that high and then that's where the trading opportunity comes in. But that's on a weekly chart. Was there an opportunity maybe again like that example I gave earlier on coming down to the smaller time frame as well. So at the moment, again, we've got from a sentiment perspective, lots of basically euro dollar bullishness amongst the financial media and dollar itself bearishness at a time when the euros already had a really good run. So could it continue extending that run? Yes, it could do. But when sentiment gets frothy, we have to look the other way because now who's left to buy if everyone's already long? And we've got divergences here as well. In fact, if we have a look at the positioning now from COP perspective, so now zoomed in to that COP redata, then what was going on there? Well, the euro topped out at the end of 2020, but the large speculators hit an extreme and this was a historical extreme in their positioning. Back in the August at the end of August beginning of September, they topped out in their in their long in the amount of long contracts they had. So again, as the euro carried on making new highs into the end of the year, they weren't in their positioning. They weren't making new highs into the end of the year. So again, we'd already had an extreme in positioning in long, long positions. And then we had divergences between what the last speculators were doing. They weren't as long, even though price had gone higher, they weren't increasing their long positions. In fact, they'd reduced their exposure coupled with Reuters articles and the likes, which were Uber bullish, the euro dollar, which gives us a warning signal. If they're off the journalist are all Uber bullish, we've got to look the other way and then coupled with that technical divergences on the price chart. So coming back to that weekly chart, we had these divergences here and I was trading trading this with my members down down to here, actually just down to the black moving average, which is a 50-period moving average. But that's on a weekly chart. That's about 500 pips in total run. So it's a great run overall. It's probably a bit more than that top absolute top to bottom. But it's a great run overall. If I take you to a daily chart, then you can see. And in fact, what was going on in the daily chart? Yep, up here, we were diverging. So in fact, although we had the building divergence on the weekly, I could get in based on the daily divergences that were taking place. And in fact, there were actually divergences on the four-hour chart at that time as well. This same pattern of divergences as price making new highs and the MACD not confirming there. So once its prices come off, so once we get a red bar like that, then I can then start looking at entering to the short side. And then because of that weekly divergence, I could then trade all the way down and really try and milk this trade as much as I could. And the irony was I did come out right near the lows because I was targeting that weekly 50 from that divergence. But again, the recipe is there. What's going on generally in the media? Are there any extremes in sentiment amongst the large speculator hedge fund community and coupled with divergences on the price chart? Now, so far what I'm showing you is are reversals. But I've also got an example when we've got a continuation pattern to be used as well. And perfect timing, we're going over to stock indices. And like I've already said at the beginning of today's presentation, are the large speculators always right? They're not. They're not always right. Like I said, when they get to extremes, sometimes they're on the wrong side. So as I've already shown you, this big extreme impositioning that happened just this year, right down into just May of this year, they were massively net short. As you can see, it's their largest short position that they've had in 10 years, 10 years worth of data. And actually, I had more data going back to 2007. And it was the biggest short position that they've had since 2000 and going all the way back to 2007. So it was a real extreme in their positioning there. Now, one or two things is going to happen. They're either right, and yes, there's a massive market collapse coming, or they're going to get caught on the wrong side. So let's now couple this positioning up with what was actually going on in the S&P at that time. So this is the daily chart of the S&P. Here's May, when they were reaching that massive extreme in short positioning. So they were massively short, but the S&P had been going up, generally speaking, since what? October of last year. So they were just continuing to build their shorts on this rally that had been going, that had started in October of last year, and they were just increasing their short positioning. Now, they could have been right, but we have to couple it up with what's going on on the charts. Well, if we look at this horizontal line I have on my chart here, we can see that the S&P just kept on bobbing itself up against this horizontal resistance level around 4150. And so by the time we're getting into May, you just go with the price action. So if the price action breaks out like it was over here, then it could well be that those large speculators and hedge funds are going to get caught on the wrong side. If they get even more caught, because the S&P starts breaking out of this long run resistance, they're going to have to start covering their shorts. They start covering their shorts, it adds fuel to the rally. And that's exactly what happened just a few months ago, which helped, I'm sure no doubt, propel the market higher because they got caught massively short at the wrong time. So don't always think that hedge funds are right. Sometimes when they're at an absolute extreme, they'll be on the wrong side of the market and the market then look for reversals. It just so happens that the market wasn't in a reversal as such, it was in a continuation pattern consolidating here. And then we got into into May and then we were just waiting for the breakout and they were caught on the wrong side. Could they have been right? Absolutely. And therefore we could have ended up with a fake out move where faked out and then ended up rolling over and collapsing. So yes, that is a potential, but you've got to read what's going on on the price action at that point and say, well, we keep on banging our head against this ceiling here. Well, yes, it could be a fake out move, but with all those hedge funds that are massively net short, there is the risk of a short covering rally. And therefore there's your opportunity in this zone over here as price breaks out. Okay, so look for both divergences and extremes in hedge fund positioning, combine it with technical chart divergences like in my first couple of examples there, but also breakouts on a price chart like I've just shown you there in relation to the S&P. But what about other forms of sentiment? So let's now go through another example here using sentiment. So we're going to use cop data again, but also other forms of sentiment like I've already alluded to in today's presentation. How are we doing for time? Right, good. So now taking the euro dollar from last year as we declined through which started in, well, that high, if only I'd have held on to my short from back here, because I shorted up here, remember, in the end of 2021 and run it down to that weekly 50, if only, but that was a good enough trade. I was okay with that. Carried on, started shorting again in the late October time of 2021 is when I got properly short euro dollar again. Anyway, that's not what I'm talking about here. What I'm talking about here now is that we fell throughout 21 and into 22. And then we made this low down here on the 28th of September of last year. So what was going on from a sentiment perspective? So yes, okay, we've made a low, but there's no technical divergences down here. This is on a weekly timeframe chart. What other information have we got? Because is there, was there any reasons why I could have got long down in this zone when we were reaching a sentiment extreme? Well, what was that sentiment extreme? Well, here it is. Look at this headline magazine cover on Bloomberg, can't stop won't stop. The Fed has turned the US dollar into a wrecking ball and there's no end in sight to the carnage. Yet again, the financial media have this amazing ability to time the market in the wrong way. When you see examples like this, you think, wow, I've got to look the other way. Because what they're talking about now is, well, they've turned the dollar into a wrecking balls. They now over bullish the dollar. So if we go back to, there we are, go back to the euro dollar at that point. And that article came out down here, right down here near the lows. And they were talking essentially about the euro dollar carrying on coming lower because they're talking about the strength of the dollar itself. And so therefore the euro dollar coming lower. And yet it was only back up here. They were talking about the demise of the dollar and that they thought that the dollar was going to go higher. They have this amazing ability. They are just, you have to remember, they are just journalists at the end of the day. They're not traders. And so they get caught up in the sentiment overall. It's amazing how it happens, but it does just like retail investors and traders around the world will do. So we had this beautiful example of a falling euro dollar for a sustainable period. And then that sentiment, as I've just said there, and it wasn't just Bloomberg, there were other articles out as well. So what was going on on the daily chart? Well, okay. On the daily chart, at that low, we also had a massive reversal day. And I remember this day very well. I was delivering a presentation in the city in London to a group of traders for a bank. And this was a US CPI day. So it was their inflation report. And what was fascinating about this day is that coming into it, you can see that the euro dollar had been in the decline. And on that day, the CPI data out of the US came out red hot. So you would think, oh, super high inflation at that point in September of last year, you can go back and dig back through and find the CPI report. And that day it was a massive beat above market expectations. And so the euro dollar started selling off on the back of that news. And yet, as we can see, the euro ended up reversing on the day. So in fact, we've had news which should have sent this market lower, but it didn't. We ended up with not only a reversal, but a key reversal as well, whereby the price bar completely enveloped the previous day's range. And in fact, the day before, so it made a new low for the entire move and then closed above the previous day high. So a complete key reversal day as well on the back of news which should have sent it lower. So we've now building a picture here that we've got massively bearish sentiment in the financial press, a market that's been coming down for a long time. So again, lots of bearishness out there. And then we go and get a reversal on news which should have sent the market lower. So coming back to what I said earlier on, there are times when if everybody's short, who's left to keep sending it lower? And if you go and get a news report like that, which should have done and it doesn't, we have to sit up and pay attention. And that's what happened down there. Now, let's actually put even more technicals onto this. So we've got that reversal bar, but what was also going on coming back out to the big picture? Well, from a sentiment perspective, again, coming back to the COP report. And if we come down to where we were at that point in 2022, so it was late September. So here, again, we can see that the large speculators had started getting what long Euro dollar well ahead of that event that took place in late September on the 28th of September of last year. So again, giving us a little bit of a heads-up warning that the large speculators, oh, what are they up to? As price is coming down, they're not going with it. They're actually doing the opposite. So again, useful information there from the COP report. Plus, from a technical perspective, I've now gone out to a monthly chart here. What have the Euro done? So this is now zoomed right out to that same low. And we can see that that low corresponds to the high of the Euro dollar in the year of its birth when it actually started officially trading in 2001. So that high met up with this low, which was around about 0.96 on the chart. And also, correspondingly back to this low, this is just the composite back here because the Euro didn't exist back in 1989. It was the composite of the German market in its day and the French franc, among others. So this low back here as well. So technically, the Euro had come down to a technical level. We got massive bearish sentiment looking at headline news, articles, and the likes. Plus, we've now got that COP data telling us that the hedge funds weren't following it and they'd started turning. Plus, we've got a key reversal day on a major inflation event, which should have pushed the Euro dollar lower, and it didn't. It reversed and gave us a key reversal day. You put it all together and you say, okay, I've got to go long. Now, does it mean that... Oh, I'll go back. Does it mean that it's easy? I'm showing you historical examples. And by the way, every single one of these trades I have taken with my community, including the one I got stopped out on, like I said, back in 2017. But it doesn't make it easy. If I go back here, on that day, I was long that following day. Following the key reversal day, I got long down here. And in fact, I got long. We had a nice... It started running quite nicely. So I moved my stop up and then it came over and actually did stop me out. I had to then get back in. Actually, in early November, I got back in after non-farm payrolls on this day. You're still knowing all of that information that was in the background. So there you go. So it wasn't perfect in the end. I had to then have another attempt at getting long. I might have got long through here as well, actually, because I add to my positions. But does it make it any easier? Because as human beings, we have this natural flight or fight response. And we don't like going against the overall sentiment most of the time. If it's really bearish out there, it doesn't always feel good in your gut and your stomach. But sometimes when your stomach feels uneasy, some of those end up being the best trades. But what I'm trying to say is it's not easy. And that's why we have to put all of this analysis together, plan our trades out in advance, so that when the setup does eventually come, that we're okay with taking it. Because we've already worked it through from a mindset perspective, because they're not always easy from a psychology perspective, which is why trader mindset trade to psychology is more important than almost anything. You can have all the information. But if you then don't take the trade, because your mindset isn't prepared for it, you're too scared to take the trade, or uncertain, then you miss out. So I spend an inordinate amount of time talking to traders about trader psychology, because that's more important than any technical setups, or even what we're talking about here today, because you can have all those ingredients. But if your psychology isn't there, then you're still not going to make money from it. And so even for me, even after 25 years of trading, you know, when I take a trade down there, it still doesn't feel, at the time, it still doesn't feel easy. But I can use that. I can use that, that pit of my stomach feel to think, hmm, this doesn't feel comfortable. I'm coming outside of my comfort zone. I've got all these ingredients here. But of course, the trend has been down for such a long period of time. And that's sometimes a good sign. But you still got to put the trade on, and you still got to run with it and hold on to that trade as well. Okay, just flick back through to the summary now. So in summary, using the COP report for diversities and extremes in hedge fund positioning is really, really useful. Combine that with technical diversities, like I've shown you there today on the price chart, using just something as simple as an MACD, you could use an RSI for, if you like, RSI for diversities as well. So you're combining information there to get high risk reward profile trades. Because if you're getting in after a divergence, or like that last example where it was a key reversal bar into that support, then you do get those high risk rewards. Because it's unlikely, like I said at the beginning, that when you've got those extremes in sentiment overall, that the market's just going to bounce for a week and then come straight back off. So they do have decent risk reward profiles. And when extremes in sentiment, such as that last year, the odds favor that larger move in price. Now, as always, we're limited on time with regards to how much detail I can go into in a presentation, but I do hope today's presentation has been thought provoking for you. And by all means, I welcome any questions at this stage. Right. So there is a question here. Are there any good observable examples with lower timeframes? Yes, there are. So if I far bod, if I go back, let me bring up a chart here of the euro. You remember I was talking about 2021. So what I'm going to do is I'm going to go back to, I think it was a four hour chart, go to 2021, not 1987 there. So let's change that. Well, it was the end of 2020, wasn't it? So see if I can, where are we there? That's August 2020. Right, okay. There we go. Now, far bod, you know, I said that I traded off the daily and the weekly charts, but during the presentation, when we came into that December of 2020 going into 2021, and I said there were actually divergences on the four hour chart as well. Look at the four hour, look at the highs that would be made and look at the lower peaks in the MACD through that as well. So again, we can apply the same principles time and time again very often. And that's what I was actually trading off that the four hour chart. Now I'll take you back to what that was looking like on the daily chart. Again, just for your, the purpose of this, take it back to the dailies. Where are we 2020? There we are. That's where that was. I've just magnified that even when I just showed you that four hour time frame there and that's what that was. And so I was short right up here based on the four hour, but knowing we had divergences building on the weekly chart and the daily chart as well. And so, and then so yeah, very often you can use multiple time frame analysis, seeing that there's a bigger picture divergence or major support or resistance coming into play and then saying, well, what is going on on an eight hour chart or a four hour chart or even a two hour chart. And if there's a good pattern, a solid pattern like there was back there, then yes, you can use that. And like that very first example that I showed today, if I go back to the 2017 example, you know, when I got long on that trade back down here in 2017 of the daily diversions. In fact, there were four hour divergences down there. You can go and check that out for yourself as well. Right down at those lows, there were four hour divergences. So I was actually knowing for, well, we had the daily divergences, but I was actually, it was the four hour divergences were enabling me to start to accumulate my position that little bit earlier. So yeah, not always, it's not always going to be there. But but there's a couple of examples where absolutely it was. Okay. Jazz, hi Jazz. Forgot how good you were. Oh, been too long since you logged into one of these. That's very kind, Jazz. We've got any other questions, but yeah, very kind of you, Jazz there. Jazz, you posted that to hosts and panellists. People will think I've just made that up. No one else can see your comment there. But thank you anyway. Exactly. Yeah, so Jazz has put that on. And I think Jazz needs to repost that to everyone because otherwise people will think, has Charlie just made that up? But nice to see you, Jazz. Okay. Any other questions? Any other questions at this stage? We've still got several minutes if we want to for any other questions. I do hope that the, like I've said, that there's some food for thought there from today's presentation. This type of trading isn't going to and using extremes in sentiment, isn't going to give you trades, you know, five times a day or, or even once a week for that matter. These are when we get these big picture extremes in sentiment, but they're good to have in your kit bag for when, when they do come along periodically. And so now I wouldn't expect an extreme in sentiment in relation to the S&P to happen for quite some time, you know, but they will emerge or divergences in what in the sentiment within that cop report do appear. So it's really useful. And I think it's something that if people aren't currently using it, you might find a way to incorporate it in your particular style as well. Smale is asking, is it still relevant to use sentiment trading techniques if you are day trading? Well, yeah, it's a good question. If you're day trading, no, what I'm showing today is not really relevant to day trading. But if you are day trading smell, then you certainly can have a look in the short term about what, about what retail traders are doing. For example, so you can have a look at the typical sites to see when retail traders are extreme, extreme positions like longs or shorts, or whether they know if they're on the wrong side of the market, which they tend to be. So you can have a look at that and incorporate that into your very short term trading. So on a day to day basis, the sort of stuff that I'm showing today is going to be less not really relevant to you smell. But certainly for shorter term traders, then do have a look at what retail traders are doing. Lots of sites out there which will show you retail trader positioning. In the main, do remember that the majority of retail traders around the world are wrong most of the time, not all of them, but a good percentage of them are. And so if we see a high percentage of retail traders are short market, well, it may well mean that market's going to continue going up because they tend to have this amazing ability of going short when a market's going up and going long when a market's going down. Keegan, do you only use TradingView or do you use MetaTrader as well? You see MACD indicator looks a bit different. Yes. Keegan, no, I don't use MetaTrader. I know it's a free charting service, but as I always say, you get what you pay for and that is free. It's good. It's good enough. But the funny enough, this standard MACD indicator that's built into MetaTrader is incorrect, Keegan. So don't use the standard one. You need to find one that's been properly programmed to put into it. So I do have one, but I wouldn't know. You'd need to get in touch with me via my PA. Come to my website, charlieburtontrading.com, get in touch use the contact form and Sam, my manager, she can send you that indicator. Just say, have you got Charlie's MACD indicator for the MetaTrader and she will send that to you. So no, TradingView is so much better than MetaTrader. MetaTrader is quite basic. TradingView is a brilliant platform. Do you have any thoughts on why the daily, weekly bullish channel just failed on the Eurodollar? Let's have a look. Well, I don't know if it's overly failed just yet, but I'll put it on. Let me just zoom out a little bit here. So I'm assuming that what you're referring to is this channel that looks a little bit like that, yes? Who's asked that? Anyway, there's a lot of comments coming through there. Yep, Firebots, you're saying yes. Have I got... Let me just go back to the question. Do you have any thoughts on why the daily and weekly bullish channel has failed? Yeah, I do. Funnily enough, I do. I mean, it has failed at the moment today. The Euro is bouncing a bit as we can see today, but yes, it's failed that channel there. I'm going to take that channel line back off now, otherwise there's too much going on the chart. But why do I think it's failed well because the dollar is on a tear at the moment? It's quite obvious in that regard. That's not a really helpful answer to you, is it? But the bottom line is that the Eurozone is... If you look at the key driver of the Eurozone economy, Germany, Germany's in recession. The PMIs out of Germany have really been quite poor. And so if you are comparing the Eurozone versus the US right now, especially on interest rate differentials as well, the US is going to track more money into it, the dollar will do than the Euro will do. So even though it looks like the Federal Reserve are possibly have peaked in their interest rate hiking cycle, the ECB, although it's still looking like they may raise a quarter of a point this month, there's lots of talk that will that even happen? But if it does happen, that's possibly quite possibly their last hike as well. So then it comes back to the table as to where would you rather park your money? You've got Germany, which is like we say is in recession at the moment. And although the US is calling slightly, it's still in a much better position. So hence why we're seeing the dollar benefit across the board at the moment. Okay, I'll come to some of the other questions. Smell good. Thanks again for your work. You really appreciate it. Oh, thank you. That's very kind of you to say your videos. Adnan, your videos have been very helpful, especially on mindset. Keep going. Thank you. Keep going. Oh, I've been doing it for 20 years, Adnan, on the ever since YouTube came out. So yeah, could you give some perspective on how professionals use indicators in their trading? That would have to be an entirely different webinar really, Adnan. How much do you recommend for stop loss percentage or pips? Good question, LeMond. It depends on the strategy that you're using as far as how much should you use as a stop loss, should use a pips based stop loss is what you're asking. I do a lot of the time I put my stop losses below a previous low or above a previous high. I don't care that markets might come back up to it or back down to it. I don't really care about that. If I get nicked out and it turns back around again, I can always get back in. So in the main, I place my stops below technical levels or even below moving averages or something like that. But you could use an average true range and do it that way. But that would be my answer. But it does vary from entry to entry. Sometimes I'll have a stop right at a low. Let's say I wanted to be long here today. For example, I might have a stop right below that low. But on another occasion, I might want to give it a little bit more room, a little bit more slack. So it's not a one size fits all, unfortunately. But in the main, I tend to place my stops either above a prior high, if I'm looking to short or below a prior low, if I'm looking to get long. It's not an email. It's just my website address. It's charlieburtontrading.com and there'll be a contact form on there and you can ask on there, Vin. Okay. What particular day we are going to visit the cot changes during our trading? Is it weekly, monthly? How to use that? Does it similar to Forex? Right. Okay. I was trying to understand your sentence there. Yeah. The the cot data is released on a Friday evening. So really, from a Saturday onwards, you're going to get that latest cot data. So the current, so we're looking at this and it's Wednesday lunchtime. So this current data is from really, it's a week old, but we won't get the updated data until Friday night. Okay. So you'll get the updated latest week on Friday night, but it will still already be out of date once you get to Friday night. Because like I said earlier on, they only give the data up until Tuesday night's trading. But it doesn't matter. You don't need it as a timing tool. It's about seeing overall what their positioning is like. And so yes, you can use it for Forex market, like I showed earlier on. If we come to the cot report, sorry, I showed the E-mini S&P, but it's the same. If I want to look at the euro, then again, I can just come to the to the legacy report here. But of course, there are other major currency pairs in here as well, including Bitcoin, although that's not as big in the futures market there, but there's plenty there. But I tend to just look at the likes of the dollar index and the euro being the bigger markets there. You could look at the Japanese yen as well, of course. So yeah, you would just click on cot legacy, and that will just bring up that euro. And again, as a reminder, so if we look at what happened with the euro last week, they came out of their longs. So minus 8,000, so they massively, they're reducing their long contracts and increasing their short contracts. And so if we then come down, click off the non-reportables, click off the commercials, and we can see that overall, they are reducing their exposure to the euro, which is in line with what the euro has been doing, hasn't it? And on that note, oh, there's one last question then. You've been trading 25 years. Yes, that's right. I started in 1997. Maybe that's 26 years, if my maths are correct. Have you ever thought about quitting and what made you move forwards? Wow. The only time I thought about quitting, Adnan, was in my first year of trading when I blew up my first ever trading account. I was only one year, less than a year into my trading. And so yes, I blew up an account like so many traders do when I first started trading. And I did think about quitting at that point. But what made me move forward was, I guess, tenacity. I come from a martial arts background. I competed internationally at karate. Funnily enough, in South Africa, at Wembley Stadium in Johannesburg, I remember one of the competitions we were at down there against the South Africans and against the South African national team. And at the time, we're talking late 90s here. And so one thing that martial arts, like many physical endeavors, taught me was not to quit. And so maybe it was that tenacity of not quitting, getting up, even if you've been kicked and beaten and you're on the floor, you get up. And that's what happened in the markets. And I thought, do you know what? I'm not going to allow that to happen. Right. I am going to love you and leave you with just over an hour, Mark. Now, thank you ever so much for all your questions and for coming along today. There will be a recording made available to you via TickMill. So much appreciated. TickMill invited me to come and do these presentations with them. And thank you for your time today. And hopefully I see some of you again soon.