 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Hazel Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 Hi everyone, I'm Hazel Chapman on this day before the Fed comes out with the Fed speak but what can they say I mean inflation is is is high this is no question about it how do they deal with it they can talk about speeding up they're tapering at the same time you've got another force wanting to throw money at the at the at the market in the country there are fighting forces here and I think that's really what we have to deal with in fact if you look at the Dow right now the Dow is up 68 71 actually at 35,728 having held the 14-period exponential moving average most importantly what we're looking at is this is such a selective market there within the components of the Dow you have enough stocks that regardless of inflation and friars they could hold up quite well I mean you've got health care you got areas like that at the same time you've got some sensitivity you've got some financials but it while we're looking at the overall market look the Dow is up 80 now the S&P which is 500 stocks and a much broader base is down 22 at 46 46 all time I was 47 43 did a retest of the hide went very close it went to 40 47 14 was it 47 yeah 13.57 on the 10th and now it's pulling back got that little double top pattern or you can even call it it's really not head and shoulders because this drop was just way too sharp but it's got a right side that is fading technically the MACD is good but not great the stochastics under 80% at 79.13 cents okay on balance volumes pulling back the 9th period is just above the 14 period it's very close to turning down but at the same time the weekly charts are holding pretty well so far so you got the QQQ which is now a lot a lot more specific because it has so many high-tax very weak down 4.7 at 387.50 so this is the Vesco QQQ trust series the NDX 100 basically got repelled in the chapter wave falling acts inside track repellent zone pulling back it's right on the 50 period moving average right now making a second arch formation I would say to you that this is an area especially with the estimations the semiconductors down 230 at 297.35 this is the area that could become somewhat vulnerable and we could start to see a rotation now I'm going to do this I didn't do the for subscribers but I'm gonna do this now MJ which is the alternate harvest EDF the cannabis sector does money start to flow in the terribly weak areas while there's some decision being made as to where to go next meaning January so are we going to see something like a weak sector that has nothing to it because it doesn't need a catalyst you've got SDZ which I've said for ages and ages this is the best of the best in the when you get to the cannabis sectors because it has the alcohol aspect as well constellation brands just an absolute winner for years and years and years look at this SDZ right here up until the height was made in April of 2018 and 236.62 remember some of you remember I had a stock I used to follow what was the clothing company it was taken over by warehouse miss warehouse I think Joseph A Banks and it looked like this I don't know what it was it's like I was told that they kept buying inside it's kept buying and buying and buying and propping the stock up but it looked like this until it was taken over then it just fell apart and I still in existence I think but it's not the same company so this was the winner and then when constellation brands announced after sorry to decline April of 2018 at the 236 level it announced that it was taking over I don't know what it was in the cannabis sector and I said aha so this is a company that's been absolutely fantastic in the area of spirits alcohol etc. now they're going to have a learning process and it's going to take them a little while but because they got it right in one sector I'm pretty sure that they're going to get it right in the next sector so this is a stock we don't have it I should have had it actually like syntax when I'm smoking about it for years and years this is that's overalls that these are sectors like WM which is waste management this is a forever sector and yet it is doing nicely was done 86 cents at 236 right now but it plunged to 184 March of 2020 low and it ran up to 244 just above the 236 high of April of 2018 and then it pulled back to the 14-speed moving average in the monthly and now it's trading well so I'm this is the kind of area that I think might not be as vulnerable to some market decline because of what the Fed says so within that context what I am saying is be very selective here we're trying to do that we've got stocks that have held very well during this period I don't know if they'll keep holding well but they have so far but at the same time we can begin we try to buy a stock today it actually popped up a little bit this morning pre-market but I noticed this because it held the 200-speed moving average beautifully enough that this is great it could have a balance it is a favorite of ours but we've had it briefly but mostly we've been watching it and it plunged over the last many weeks and I thought this is a good opportunity and then as I put the buy-in for subscribers this morning with a remember folks I did send an update of the stop because I had to have a very tight stop I didn't want a wide stop I made a mistake with the stop and then I and then I noticed that it was Kathy Woods who was buying it and then I thought oh no that's the worst thing of all I don't want her buying this because she's just got this terrible touch lady she's gonna be right at some point but in the meantime that portfolio of hers the RKR ARKK oh man and then I thought that's the then and then I saw that Goldman Goldman Sachs I think it was or one of those had upgraded this Morgan Stanley it upgraded it and but it did pull back and we did get stopped out very very tight stop on on a hundred and what a hundred and forty dollars stock I'm quite prepared to get a stop out of a just a couple of percent while I'm waiting for something to really be activated on the upside but be being very selective here we've raised cash I don't want to be running into any kind of hazard right now we did buy a particular index we've got it at the absolute low today we waited from yesterday when it looked like an absolute crazy thing so I want to say why are you waiting 500 point drop to get it well we did get it and I'm satisfied that we got it because I think that all of this is in a way being built in for the Fed we know that they can have no choice but to talk about speeding up the the acceleration of their the tapering the decline of just throwing money at the market but there are other factors yet that are equally important and my suspicion is that when it's all said and done why we'll have a clearer picture I think we will find that was being most affected all stocks likely the tech stocks that have written spent quite a bit on it I'm a lower interest rate maybe not the house want just yeah I'll be back in a moment while hard to get anything done I'll be back are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis in our gear to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com TFNN educating investors what's separating 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excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors all now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 everyone we're back just to show you some jump wave techniques look at this we've got a nice little signal right yet 930 for a rally got peak A peak B peak C peak D peak E D's where you start to be a little bit careful it went to E pulls back it went above the 200 feet moving average which acted like a magnet that's the reason why that particular stock this morning is what I wanted because it held the 200 period moving out and then look what happened the left side had very strong technicals the right side retest and weak technicals and now it's gone sharply lower there's the E-mini S&P and one minute chart patterns repeat over and over yes the big H of the arch formation if I can find there it is left side and it's extended to the right we'll see what happens just make it clear if at 4637 if at any point this morning start to see the E-mini trade under 4630 it says our problem and if it starts to push above 46 it's at 4638 if it can close above 4649 says hey there's a little bit of strength here again we'll see if we can get a decent ready going let's go back to our story here so SDZ I was talking about the only reason why I wanted to bring it up is to say in this particular period right now we might find that the very very weak sectors just have a little bit of a law end of the year rally or at least a bounce and I'm just mentioning that this in the sector is really the leader although it's really spirits more than it is cannabis sector it's done very very well SDZ constellation brands I'm not giving you as a recommendation anything we don't have it for subscribers I'm just saying this is the leader and it's doing very well and let's go on now we want you to look at the IWM Russell 2000 to see if it's increased no it's pulling back a little bit now it's only up that's now it's down three ticks at two sixteen point oh one visit this is going to be a tough market for going into two o'clock tomorrow and then maybe it's going to be a very tough market after that but in the meantime it's in a stalling holding pattern question I see where was it where was it where was it yeah so the question is I have the SMH up is that the same person no William William sir thank you very much I don't know if I'm a sir but and I was formerly from the British Commonwealth being from South Africa before they went alone as a republic and I just wanted to say the blue indicator within the stochastic is right here this is blue and it's the on balance volume I love the on balance volume I been using it I use I got inter technical analysis because of Joe Joe well for the granville I was it said for the first time I forgot his name Joe granville's on balance volume but I used to have to add it up with a calculator or with a pen and pencil pencil and paper it's a running total of all the previous up on an update you added the volume to the total on the down day you subtracted that's all it is but once they do once we're on computers they developed it as a program with one line that was fantastic and look at look at the beautiful indicators that is you know the way it's given a question about new month mining came up let's see if we can do this with with on balance one new month mining yeah so you want mining had a very nice bounce where did it bounce from to get the way the on balance volume right here the low of the on balance volume then people will say our indicators they're lagging indicators well look how lagging this is on the 2nd of December on balance more volume made a v-shaped what we didn't know it was a turnaround the next day we didn't know that was a turnaround with a v-shaped pattern well that just happened to be the low of 52 point 60 in new month mining and look at the run up it had but then the on balance volume stalled and said hey be careful be careful be careful look at the high peak e right there on the 16th of November one day after the on balance one turns around from that m pattern so yes I use it not always doesn't work but it's a fantastic indicator to have as just a convenience just such an easy thing to see visually and so on new month mining is down 91 cents at 5626 it's holding pretty well but is in the rectangle formation in the weekly charts and just think of it going from the one level of the rectangles of the upper part to the lower part from the lower part back to the upper part and it's just but the monthly charts is be careful if there's nothing to see a yet in new month mining and so let me just go to gold if I done this already gold is down 15 and 1770 I did in the update it's making a potential art formation right here the dreaded H which have we've methodology right there it hasn't broken down yet but it is saying that it's been pretty weak and I've been talking about this for a long time saying it's more an intraday trading vehicle it had a very nice move to the upside back in November going from about 1760 all the way to 1880 and then it comes back in the Eiffel Tower straight up straight down pattern and it's broken it hasn't broken the left side low of the first of no third of November of 1765 point five in the 1761 point one in the continuous contract the load that was made a week and a half ago was 1762 point two just above it so but my thinking here is that if it takes that out in the arch second H pattern takes out the left side low of this pattern right here of the 61 level watch out because it could very quickly go into the 55 so I'm watching gold very closely I was thinking there was a chance that maybe the thing does something or says something that triggers the inflationary vehicle of gold so that it starts to move we don't know yet but all I can say is once gold starts if and when gold starts to trade above 1806 that's where gold is going to move very quickly to the upside just make it as simple as possible so let's see gold is more disinflationary you know you remember about five months ago I said let's start thinking of Goldy that's gold Bondi that's bonds TLT this Dolly that's the dollar our long dollars for since night 2018 and Vixie the volatility index I used to say we can tie them together at least two or three move in the same direction when certain things happen now I'm saying think of them separately gold is in its own trajectory the volatility index made this major high of major high on the on the dating chart in 35.32 plummets down to the 19th and now it's trading at 21.70 think of it kind of independently the load that was made was a low I don't know if it was the low on the first of December the third of December in the Vixie index and all I can say is that it's a wonderful vehicle and if you're able to trade the UVXY that's good but think of it this is absolutely volatility and emotionality related in the stock market this is that's why I'm trying to think of it as a separate thing gold can be moving in a different way look at the Bitcoin the Bitcoin which is trying to rally head went made a leg into downside yesterday I've been saying this is done with its major move to the upside at least for now maybe even for the year I'm not sure yet but I do say that I've been saying that since it made that top at 60 69 860 that Bitcoin is I don't know if it's done done but it's definitely in this particular phase it is below the 200 pre-moving average I just don't think it's going anywhere just yet I'll type see in a moment we'll look at the thing are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tigers Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the Den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tigers Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other Tigers and Tigers is as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market acting all trading day subscribe to the 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incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com hi everyone there are a lot of stocks and things I have questions about but also so I just posted the code in the Dan posted this and I want to do this look at this D E F so there is no you can go to a G and there is no H so I'll call this to be as conservative as possible I'm gonna call this a G on this particular chart but let me show you something I don't know if I want to go back yeah I'll do that look at this chart you watch me do the chapwave notation from the low of this particular chart that's the low I'll put an up arrow because we know that it's that was the low and now look at this we go uppercase so that's a that was an a right then it's just go over it a a little pulls back goes to it a again another a no that's a b yep that's a b so now we've got a b now I need to check it my eyes is that it's a b 51 45 and 51 65 correct that is a b of course you've got a notation automatically like Steve does that's very good D and now we start a brand new look keep moving keep moving and the reason why I want to do this you're going to be shocked when you see it and this is the reason why I said to subscribers this morning we're going to we're going to stay with that long position we wanted way down yesterday morning it looked like absolutely impossible this morning we got it within pennies and then there was a rally only because there's a chance that a lot of this has already been worked into the market I don't want to be fooled by nervousness I want to be not fooled I want to be there we go I want to move with what the trend is and I'm not sure just yet that is complete fake out that we are done so this is called us an A call this a B call this a C and a D remember D's what you're doing the Chapman wave methodology that it's ideal if you can get to a D and then pull back and then restart so now what do we have we have D you pull back sharp you start another move to the upside call this gray a because it's under the previous high this has to be E slash B new B or old E and this is old F or new C now the reason why I wanted to take the time you know what this is this is something that I've seen before but I never really looked at it I just saw the ticket go by this is called the SPLV and what is the SPLV I've never known until this very moment although I'm sure it was pointed out to me many times first time I'm seeing thank you Kota for letting me know this is right here it says SPLV ETF report ratings anything okay as SPLV offers a straightforward low volatility take on the S&P 500 if it's it selects about 100 S&P 500 stocks with the lowest daily volatility over the past year and so it's a low volatility ETF and look at this look how spectacular it is now why do I bring it out as a as a tool to show you because look if this was a down arrow was technically on every every level I should be saying there's a down arrow there and that should be an up arrow right here because the stochastic pullback from over 80% way down to 20 under 20% on that pullback the magnetic turned down sharply on balance volume turned down sharply the 9th period went under the 14th period and then crossed above it and we've had a really nice takeoff in a single leg a to the upside says G slash a G says oh be very careful at any moment you could pull back very sharply a says are you kidding every single pullback you want to buy because you want to still go to an a B a C and a D on the upside so this is interesting why because look at the XLK the XLK had this big move to the upside almost the same thing I discussed it yesterday I think it was I showed it to subscribers in my overview over the weekend and look at had the single move up which is either a G or a C so the way to answer this is to say wait a minute the magnetic went positive just briefly this is the S&P select text spider fun it went briefly above now it's gone back to negative stochastic went over 80% and now it's at 81% is holding okay but it's starting to pull back the 9th period moving average is above the 14th period moving edge but look at this dip look at the slide down 245 and 169.89 so that says for the you for the SPLV to break down like the XLK is and they very different vehicles you would have to and I have no choice but to actually put that in there at least for the moment there was a peak D in the chart but it did it just barely it almost crossed negative but it didn't in the 9 period under the 14 it's held quite nicely you would have to see the equivalent pullback from 65.94 and this is the low volatility group why would they pull back unless the market itself tanks so that says that it would have to go underneath 64.95 is the 14 period moving average probably would have to go close to the 50 period moving average near the 64 level so it's about two points down if it breaks down though those two points in the next by Friday or Monday this is that definitely was a single leg up to the A side failure pattern the G coming back down very sharply if it holds very nicely and for whatever reason by Friday we actually have one tick above the height of the 13th that happens to me yesterday of 66.53 goes to 66.54 that is really positive action thank you for pointing it out and before I forget I need to write down SPLV with a big question mark I need to do a lot more work on that LV with a big question mark got it all right now we can go back to the questions look at AA we'll look at AA which is alcoa AA is actually acting quite nicely today it's gone above the trend line resistance it's up $3.20 actually more than quite nice this is very good 6.7% at 50.99 now what's interesting is that and I see this made a peak F technically I should put it down arrow but look the 9 didn't even get close to crossing negative under the 14 in the weekly chart all the technicals are weak nothing on balance volume so it says you might find that this is an alternative count but I'm calling it an F for now I'll come a monthly course in a peak C this is very nice action let's just see if X is doing the same thing yeah X is moving so what are we doing we're starting to see the infrastructure stocks moving today and that's what I was saying is this a period where we start to see the real laggards start to move very nicely oh that stuck that I because stopped out of is actually doing a little bit better a little bit better well that's the way it is I mean I just once I knew Kathy Wood was involved I you just can't tell because she's been choosing these things like I'm like a she's she needs metal gloves to be able to catch the falling knives anyway we'll see what happens I can always get back in so X U.S. Steel nice day today a 5.2% up $1.17 and 23.37 I just don't know if this is going to work but it is today you're looking at the 200p moving average acting as a support in you know U.S. Steel and that's what I was saying is this a time now where we get to roll over a complete a switch where the tech stocks really take a well earned reader and all of a sudden you're looking at the heavier stuff are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate 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technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk-free today with our 30-day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction chairs carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv i got a lot of questions so let me get to this i'm just i i didn't want to do it only because i'm just furious at myself for not holding on to s o x i just timed it perfectly the top in the in the smh's and then we just we got out too soon we and just what can i say uh it was just a vehicle that i chose if i just said short it if you can get the short chair short that's great some people can't the smh is right on the day of the top in the 22nd of november 318.82 uh we were just we were in hell holding it because i would have put a stop above 318.80 at the high of the day i didn't know what the high of the day was but i would have found it and then after that i said that was that's the stuff and yeah we are from 318 we've gone down to today at 296 we've already been down to 290 had a very strong bounce so let me just show you this applied materials round number high remember 159 round number high back on the 16th of november i said i just got to watch this closely it came right back just under 159 remember these double tops that i've been talking about how fascinating it is uh in the market patterns repeat and sometimes you can have completely diverse instruments an instrument that says i've got nothing to do with the other thing and then they both do the same pattern and this is what happened with applied materials double top 159.00 retests again and what does it do it goes to 158.34 i mean 66 cents away what else yeah 66 cents away from testing the 159 round number high and now it's dropped that's applied but it hasn't broken down but it's saying it's struggling look at nvidia nvidia has what a round number low that day that on the 22nd it made its high 346.47 319 was the round number high i said watch that closely and what we are we're now we're at 280 we've gone down to leg c today's lows to 272.50 look at advanced micro devices um running today it's up a dollar 20 and 135 it hit 164.46 on december the 20 on the 30th and today's low was 130 i would say 34 points that's what almost 20 percent uh in one of the leaders on the upside advanced micro devices uh look at the one that we remember marvel i said we'll make a high and then start just lower lows and lower highs and lower lows and lower highs well so far what has it done it made an all-time high of 93.85 morale technologies semiconductor area 93.85 on the 8th of december every day since then has had lower highs and lower lows and today doesn't change that it's down a dollar 25 85.33 on the shorter term these guys are having trouble just on the shorter term look at um zylings same area does the dreaded h today took out the left side low 238.79 the 30th of november high and it's turning right now 209 one by but oh the difference is that this has uh on turn of count gsas c in the weekly chart i think it's time to go to our caller we've got um victor and paramus new jersey victor how are you good good where would you do at amc right now so amc folks amc is of course this is the entertainment holding entertainment industry is trading up 50 cents at 2373 um it made oh i didn't know dated peak app peak c peak dpe doji candle high on the um 13th of september at 52.79 and it's come all the way down to today's low of 20.80 wow listen so what would i do right now if you want to trade a balance thinking that this is in the area that could find a little bit of support as the general market has weakness while waiting for the fed maybe at 23.67 you could just take a tiny little nibble but to tell you the truth victor i think because it's made a lower low in the art formation on the weekly chart my suspicion is that if you're looking at this in about two to three weeks time it's trading right now 2369 i would not be surprised if it's tested the body of this candle right here this candle that has a low of so that low is 12 and the highest 36 that's the candle of the 28th of may i wouldn't be surprised if it gets into the that it it's tested it has tested by then 17 so i don't see it could it could bounce a little bit but i suspect that this is it's not a good looking chart at all if you know something fundamental that's different i i don't see it i the chart is not telling me that fundamentally there's anything good news about it at this particular point so as a balance for point of two maybe but i just think it's going to be going lower in fact i i'm not sure i would short the stock because is that a big move from the 45 it's been cut in half to today's low but i do think that if it has a balance there's a real good chance it's going to test the low of today which is 20.80 if it starts to trade under under 20 if it trades in the 19 area wow then the then the daily the weekly and the monthly charts are starting to deteriorate i hope that helps you what about expiration they got anything to do it on Friday oh expiration well that's what i'm saying maybe it has a little balance within it would you use it up would you use it option that's a nine-day moving average would you use an option on it or would you trade no i should but i wouldn't but would you use the nine-day moving average it looks like it bounces off there all the time well this nine-day moving average is way up at 28.25 that's five points i don't know if it's good let me look at the 120-minute chart give me a second that's a 20-minute chart you know i to tell you the truth if if i was looking at this as an option play i would rather say if it bounces towards the 25 80 26 30 area i'd look at the put side for Friday i'd rather trade a move before that on the upside thinking that there's some selling going to go on into into expiration if it rallies now the opposite would be true that if it pulls back and it starts to hold 20.30 or 20.50 maybe you can have a quick pop on Friday you know what let's look at it again maybe Thursday okay sounds good okay thanks for calling i appreciate that so a couple other things i wanted to say so that's so that's invidia you will look to look to look to that uh belly up intraday thoughts Pat says um Eiffel towers can be called Christmas trees absolutely absolutely i never thought of that very good well dials down 127 right now sbs down 44 hmm this is going to be very very interesting why because within the context of a rally we've already used up that strength and it hasn't held now that says to me be be very careful for for two reasons one is if the market closes towards the lows today it really doesn't have any room at all if there's if the market perceives is what the fed says not just as a negativity they gain whatever they're going to say it can't be a positive thing but they can ameliorate that negativity by talking about it as if there's a plan involved and we've already accomplished this much etc i'll talk 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