 During Cohen last week. We had that problem. I have Thanks for Mike mouse. Good morning everyone. Thanks for coming out. I Have to make a couple of points here one is we know it's Chinese New Year's and we're dragging people out from their offices or from their homes Even more embarrassingly This was scheduled originally to be During the what turned out to be the blizzard of Washington and so we've lost time We could have postponed it even more, but then we would have been postponing it even more for those who are Not here. I think I've told it quite a few of Some of you who's some of your colleagues who are correspondents in the light that we would be available for streaming today So you don't in many cases. You don't have to leave your home if you want to Enjoying in the conversation here the next important thing to say is to offer Alan Romberg and my and I think for all of us condolences to those people who are suffering in Taiwan from the Southern earthquake that I was Shocked this morning looking at the Wall Street Journal photos How extensive the damage has been even in a place which is used to Tremors and is built for them. It's a really heartbreak the Discussion this morning would be highly informal. We've got a compact group and We're lucky to have Alan Romberg here from the Stimson Center where he is a distinguished scholar and runs the East Asia studies program Most of you are familiar with him, but I think it's worth pointing out for the purposes of those who may not know him how he's really the the master of American policy and Taiwan and cross-strait relations is his classic work is called rein in at the Precipice story of American policy toward China and Taiwan and cross-strait relations And it is the book to which we should all turn when we really want to answer a question About the past and then he's not just a man of the past. He writes regularly for the The China Leadership Monitor CLM, which is a online publication from the Hoover Institution at Stanford University And Alan has been regularly chronicling Cross-strait and US Taiwan and Taiwan domestic political talks. I Myself served in Taiwan for a few years back in the early 2000s as US Representative to Taiwan called the director of the American Institute in Taiwan and I have stayed Engaged with Taiwan affairs. We're going to lead off this morning with some remarks by Alan as he observes the outcome of the recent election and and puts it into his his own context and perspective Thank you. Thank you very much Doug and again, I want to reiterate thanks to all of you who've come out on this Chinese New Year's apologize for that But as Doug indicated if you delay it more you delay it more and we've already got a situation Where perhaps everything that needs to be said has been said but perhaps not everybody has said it So so we'll add to that a bit this morning I just want to hit on some highlights at least as I look at them of the election and particularly What we may see going forward And leave and then Doug I think is going to supplement what I've Got and then leave it to you all to take the conversation where you want to with your comments and your questions I'm not going to dwell on the election outcome I don't even have with me the the numbers but clearly it was a Second round of the November 2014 local election result that is a decisive DPP victory and route for the Guamindang There are a lot of analyses out there as to what really happened How much of a DPP victory was it as opposed to how much of a KMT loss? My own sense is that The DPP deserves a lot of credit for running a very effective campaign Their ground game obviously had improved considerably from four years earlier had done a lot of work And and it showed but I also have to say I think that the majority of the gap Was a disaffection or represented a disaffection from the Ma administration from the Guamindang and so on And you can see that simply in the drop-off in numbers of those who voted for the KMT Especially if you look at the presidential election It was the lowest voter turnout in years perhaps ever since they've been having real elections. So As I say that's not to take credit away from from the DPP, but it certainly then puts a Burden on the KMT to think about its own future and People need to think about the future of Taiwan politics. A lot of folks are raising questions Is there a future for the Guamindang? My own sense is that there is though there's a lot of work to do to make that real Clearly they need to rejuvenate the party in the sense of among others of bringing in a lot of younger people And to try and focus on what it is They really are all about I will also say as a personal note. I think that a lot of My own Joe's policies that were criticized were actually pretty sound policies But I don't think they were implemented As well as they might have been They certainly were not bought by the people in Taiwan As President Mao might have hoped and I think that that Disconnect had a lot to do with the disaffection, but disaffection there was and there's no no way around Around that a second feature of this really is sort of okay now the legislative UN for the first time is in the hands of the DPP And and the question is so what is the implication of this For for politics, but also for the Tsai Ing-Wen administration and its ability to get things done I think the instinct everybody has is that it'll make things easier Clearly she is the most important political force in Taiwan at this point and has great influence over the Legislators and the legislative caucus and so on keeping in mind that as always the LI will want to maintain its own prerogatives as a separate and co-equal branch of government and I don't think anybody should Downplay that but I think that already with the Election of a speaker who then has been removed from the direct party Political process and so on that that will change the nature of the LI to some extent I Think that we also see that the KMT Still has the ability to block some key changes constitutional changes and so forth So I which I don't anticipate anyway at least in ways that would be problematic By the way one thing I guess I should say about the election and I welcome comments from those of you who follow This perhaps even more closely than Doug and I do Was that this incident on the last day or so of this young girl who? Was with the Korean group and it was forced to do this mea culpa Very heart-wrenching video Saying she was Chinese and all the rest of it Everything I've seen suggests that though there was no particular reason to think that the KMT would have been any more supportive of What she had to go through than anybody else clearly it redounded to their detriment and to the DPP's benefit and Both what I've read and people I've talked to has suggested that it might have made a difference of as many as three or even five seats In the LI and particularly if you look at some of the polls Which have a fair number of people making up their minds and not only the last 48 hours be even the last 24 hours before the election In any case it was going to be a big victory for the DPP So it didn't it didn't change that although The numbers when you get down between 35 and 40 I just do matter The first task obviously of the incoming administration with the new LI already seated Will be the transition and we've seen a lot of back-and-forth about whether the new premier should be Somebody that is nominated by the DPP or approved by the DPP. Well, that's been taken care of And I have to say I think it's been taken care of in the right way I mean after all you only have one president one executive branch at a time and while obviously Both Ma and Dung will need to be careful about what they do in this interim period You can't have a period where you don't have a functioning government So I think that this is we'll see how it actually turns out But I think that the the way it's been structured if you will is is the appropriate way to do this and I guess one other point to make is that this gap of Four months It seems to me needs to be fixed over the next Few years. This is it's really I Guess what is unacceptable and what's intolerable is a little hard to determine, but it really is an unacceptable position To have a government Which which really can't fully function in all aspects Because of this gap obviously as president my has said he's going he's not going to be a lame duck He's going to do what he needs to do But they're clearly areas where he is going to be respectful and the premier is going to be respectful of the outcome of the election the thing that I really One of two things I would focus on beyond that is cross-trade relations We know during the course of the campaign That time one Talked in a variety of ways around the 92 consensus She made a very important speech here in Washington in early June in which she laid down some markers about how she would handle the relationship in accordance with the existing ROC constitutional order and Based on the accumulated outcomes of the discussions and Exchanges since the more than 20 years which I think translates back to 1992 She didn't endorse the even the existence of much less the substance of the 92 consensus But this seemed to me to be a pretty clear Signal that she was not seeking to overturn things. She talked about having no surprises And so on so I think she was trying to do everything she could to say that This was not going to be an administration If and when she won which was going to be pursuing Taiwan independence And which was going to be overturning the kinds of agreements that had been reached since Ma took office in 2008 And during the course of this campaign the PRC was pretty consistent every time She said something and and praised her remarks in a particular way They would respond to that and the basic response was the 92 consensus is essential And what's essential about it is its core and its core is that Taiwan on the mainland both belong to one on the same China And the other part of it of course is to oppose Taiwan independence Now I think there never was a chance. I think there is not a chance that she is going to directly endorse embrace the 1992 consensus In the sense that the PRC explains it or that she is going to directly oppose Taiwan independence Having said that as I indicated, I don't think she's going to pursue Taiwan independence. I don't think that's on her agenda I can't see how it would be on anybody's agenda in these circumstances And I don't think she's as I say going to oppose the processes largely speaking in terms of Agreements and so on if they can be reached across the straight the KMT attacked her for taking a vague position on this and said that things would End up in a disaster if she didn't embrace the 92 consensus the mainland indicated Indirectly some of the same things and they're still saying some of the same things We had comments the other day where If if things are not Maintained on an even keel in fact there there could be a really bad outcome She had as I'm sure most everybody in this room knows a very interesting interview with Liberty Times on January 21st and she said some things which I think were designed to underscore What she had already said about Her position on the 92 consensus Advancing them somewhat now how much is perhaps something in the eye of the beholder And some PRC commentators have talked about this as a micro adjustment or fine-tuning and said she's still evading the core Which is the issue of whether both Taiwan and the mainland belong to one in the same China But what she said is if I may quote from an informal translation Remember she had a press conference the night of the of the election and what she said was during that press conference She had said that the future foundation for cross-strait relations will be based on the existing ROC constitutional order the results of cross-strait negotiations interactions and exchanges as Well as democratic principles and the will of the Taiwan people and keep in mind She has always stressed the importance of reflecting the will of the Taiwan people and how any agreement that it doesn't reflect That will isn't going to be able to Maintain itself. She went on as president-elect. I reaffirm That after the new administration takes office on May 20th. It will transcend partisan politics Which means I'm not just going to represent the DPP, right? Respect the will and consensus of the Taiwan people and be mindful of the public interest in maintaining Cross-strait peace and stability based on the existing ROC constitutional order She went on in 1992 Seth and Aritz these are the two white-glove organizations which have been conducting the negotiations and implementing the agreements Engaged in discussions and negotiations based on the political mindset of mutual understanding and the need to set aside differences and seek common ground They achieve several common understandings and acknowledgments. I understand and respect this historical fact I want to come back to that phrase. I think it's a fairly important one. I Also believe that both sides of the strait should cherish and protect the accumulated status quo and outcomes that had been the result of more than 20 years of exchanges and negotiations between the two since 1992 on The basis of this fact and the existing political foundation another key phrase Existing political foundation. We should continue to move forward on the peace stability and development of cross-strait relations Okay, let me just pick on two phrases in here. One is historical fact the PRC has made clear that what was important was to acknowledge the historical fact of The 1992 consensus not only that there was a conversation and a process but also the outcome The outcome being the agreement On the existence of one China to which both the mainland and Taiwan belong She doesn't quite say that but she's gone. I think some distance to try To move in a direction the PRC Can see as positive and constructive in that connection Talking about the common understandings and acknowledgments and Is that historical fact that she respects and understands? So I think that's one important point Also, the PRC has driven home including Xi Jinping personally The importance of adherence to the quote common political foundation Which meant the 92 consensus and opposition to Taiwan independence? She doesn't quite use that phrase. She says the existing political foundation But I'm not aware that she's used that phrase before and it seems to me again A gesture in a step in the direction of what the PRC Is looking for Obviously Beijing is going to have to make the judgment based on This statement and everything else. She has said and what else she might say between now and May and even after May May 20th rather About whether it does the necessary The the reaction from the Taiwan Affairs office was a statement which basically didn't criticize her didn't say this isn't enough This won't work Which is by the way something they had said in 2014 when they said well if the DPP hopes to base its policy on the Gaoshuang resolution of 1999 If the even if it freezes the 1991 Taiwan independence plank in the DPP Charter That won't work Qing Pukong Didn't say that but they reiterated the position about the importance of the 92 consensus And its core connotation As I say there have been some important commentators In the PRC who have said, you know, this really doesn't cut it. It's too evasive It doesn't grapple with the the substance And we want to hear her talk about the substance the essence What does that commentary represent? We'll have to see I think it represents at a minimum The fact that she did not say the words the mantra if you will that she's in ping and officials in Beijing have been asking her To say and I think it also represents a desire that she actually say more Does it represent an insistence that she say more or else the PRC will proceed with a lot of the steps that we've all been thinking about That they could take cutting off Seth and Aritz connections cutting off the Links between the mainland affairs council and the Taiwan Affairs office in that process cutting off the existing hotline Disrupting the so-called diplomatic truce and taking some of Taiwan's diplomatic partners Curtailing Taiwan's diplomatic space for example perhaps cutting back on invitations even to observers to international conferences And by the way if they were to do that I would think that might not happen this year To the World Health Assembly you'll remember when mob became president They didn't invite his administration to send somebody that year because the conference Began before he was actually president and my I think that the conference would begin before he actually leaves the presidency so I wouldn't take that particular one as an indicator this this year and possibly On economic agreements, and I think I was going to talk a little bit about about that Whatever they do. I think the mainland will work very hard to maintain links with the private sector and also with local even local governments Assurances they provided when you've had Townships and even municipal Visitors come they've made it clear that that doesn't necessarily have to be at a political level although I Think we need to see how that gets worked out if they move to these kinds of steps But clearly the business community they will want to maintain links with they're not they don't want to spoil what they have achieved in terms To the degree they have won some hearts and minds although polls show they haven't done a really terrific job in winning hearts and minds in Taiwan But they don't want to lose ground to the extent they can Help help doing it, but will they hold off on doing the kinds of things. I just enumerated We have to wait and see and as I say we have to wait and see a little bit Whether it's I says more before May 20th on May 20th after May 20th And how the PRC reacts to that the final point. I guess I would simply comment on is the US position I think The US and I would join in this has congratulated Taiwan on conducting And obviously if you're a free and democratic election were there problems in the way the campaign was conducted I would say yes But as an American looking at our own campaign, I would be a little bit reticent about being too harsh about that But the election itself went off. I think very well and people in Taiwan and The the competitors in the parties I think deserve a lot of credit for that whatever flaws There may have been And I think the US has made clear that it is going to work very hard to have a positive constructive productive relationship With the next administration, and I think that every expectation is that that will be the case Having said that let's keep in mind that the US has a vital national interest in What I considered to be the status quo is the US defines it. I noticed that Ken Moy One of Doug's successors in Taipei who's there now said the US doesn't define it I think in a way the US has American officials have to find it as maintaining peace and stability and in that sense at least that's my definition of an American view of the status quo that's very important and As I say, there's every indication that sign one wants to maintain that that was a strong theme of her campaign maintaining the status quo of peace and stability I think it's something the bait the PRC wants to do very much. Why would they want otherwise? But the US will keep an eye on it and As Ken Moy said for example, they'll be looking at what's in the inaugural address and what's in the policy And what does the PRC do? This concern is about how both sides conduct this relationship. So I think the US will be Not in the middle Not going to mediate But it will if and as it sees it necessary Try to work with the two sides to make sure that this relationship doesn't go Off track and that we don't end up with cross-state problems That will impact on US national interest one Final comment that goes back. I apologize for being sort of out of order with this one thing I think the PRC is going to be looking at is the issue of what they've called desinitization to jungle hot and We've already heard from a lot of our PRC friends about this and it involves things such as textbooks for example It involves choice of romanization. It involves the the way history is addressed both in text, but also Otherwise and the way the relationship is described. So I just simply point that out isn't simply a matter of Accepting or not accepting the 92 consensus, but it involves an ongoing process in Taiwan as The Thai administration settles in with that Doug let me turn to see you. Thank you very much, Alan And thank you for getting that last point in I think if we This audience I think is from looking at the faces. This is pretty expert audience and I think we'll understand The ramifications of desinitization begins to take hold in Taiwan society and how that will affect attitudes and Interpretations of what say one has to say by mainland authorities, but I think it's gonna be very hard for the average Observer to understand a lot of this. It gets very very Rekindite and all of us should bear it in mind and try to inform people as if if such practices take hold and become important fact hoots What a season the second to last part of your Points about Taiwan's language in the interview with Liberty Times To ask a question over the last year we've seen a number of people in Taiwan and Outside Taiwan advocating that if we can't get to an acknowledgment of the 92 consensus With the DPP in command and if you can't get to acknowledgment of one China or withdrawal of the 91 or 99 Statements about independence Can you get non-denial of one time? Is that what we saw in this Liberty Times editorial or was it without Taking it too far This question is really both intriguing and important I actually you mentioned the China leadership monitor. I did a Discussion of that in a couple of issues ago where it seemed to me that in a lot of the PRC statements There was a distinction being drawn between embracing the mantra if you will and The consequences of that and the consequences of not embracing it but not denying it and There were things that happened later in the year that struck me as saying well No, they didn't want to make that distinction It was either you accept it or the alternative to accepting it is that you have rejected it I'm not sure that there isn't this sort of in-between position Clearly what what it's high is is going to do at least clearly in my mind is not to deny Is to do a non-denial to take a non-denial position? But I think in that my my sense is in the in the Liberty Times Interviews she did a little more than that she she moved a little bit In the PRC's direction on acknowledging the historical fact. I don't have the quotes in front of me but at one point Not so long ago. She talked about the historical fact that they met in 1992 and they agreed to Seek common ground and set aside or reserve differences and That occasioned reactions from Beijing saying that isn't all that happened Right, it was more that happened and that was the essence of both sides belonging to one China I think with the existing political foundation quote she uses the the Language that she used about the historical fact of the understandings and acknowledgments She's not Totally accepting the language of the PRC But she has moved somewhat in the direction of What they were looking for so Is that I don't think it's only a non-denial I think it is a non-denial and I think that's important But it seems to me that that interview was trying to do a little bit more this exploration of the mid-rash of Taiwan and cross-strait relations is Is You do it expertly, but it sure is I think tough for the average person to try to follow along I'll give you some observations of my own of this election process and its outcomes Largely based out of a contrast with my own experience in Taiwan I dealt with the Chen Shui bien government of which Taiwan was one member and many of the other people were seeing now were members but the overall behavior of the Then ruling party and the return now to ruling party status. This is not your father's DPP it's a much more disciplined and organized and Rationalized set of policies and party activities with Clear steady leadership at the top that we had not seen before changes fundamentally have clearly how China Taiwan's voters feel about entrusting the DPP with a lot of power Another observation is when I was in Taipei, we did a lot of looking at the legislative election patterns really find fine-tuned kind of analysis of what would come up in the elections that we faced and in those days the role of the KMT's clan networks and long-term patronage networks and Ability to dispose of Marges to In communities really seem to make them an unmovable majority And it's quite an accomplishment to have so turned off the voters in the course of the past a year and a half or more Who have upset all of those long-standing bonds, you know, we can't change our Congress very easily here because people take good care of their Their congressional seats and they tend to keep their own bastards in charge Talk about others needing to be changed, but Taiwan actually has done it in a big way. This is really quite impressive Now that of course now that they are in office Or will be in office in May And the legislature is in place I think you can reflect that not only do we have to see a better organized DPP We're also seeing some of the high-quality people coming to the floor Um, Taiwan, you know, people know about her. I don't have to go on Her vice president not so well known when I was in Taipei. We had the episode of the sudden acute respiratory syndrome SARS and Taiwan was very poorly equipped to handle it at the time because their CDC had been doing things like sexually transmitted diseases They hadn't dealt with major outbreaks. They lack the personnel who had experience doing epidemiology And they turned to the new vice president Chun Jinran to come in and help and Considerable urging from me and others that they needed to make such a change that he performed very effectively That track record is important the new President or speaker of the legislative year and Su Jiaquan. I got to know during his time as pingo county commissioner and Subsequently when he was minister of interior, but he's he's another one of these highly proficient people Good political touch, but also ability to listen to the experts and bring his own expertise So I and finally one more personnel comment, which is the the man who looks like he may end up being the executive young Ben Zhang Lin Shan judging from the the position he's occupying during the interregnum Lin Shan was a very effective minister of finance and his PhD in economics Went in on a very difficult situation in Taiwan where there had been a proliferation of banking licenses the people who are really not good bankers and a lot of perilously positioned banks He very quietly and steadily worked to get these banks in the better shape To merge them eliminate them or strengthen them as a minister of finance while keeping a very low profile So I think you look across the board of the people who have been closest to this campaign You also see people who got a real track record of accomplishment now looking forward a Lot of a lot of hope has been placed on reviving the economy with this change of government There's a lot of criticism of the underperformance of the ma lead economy What I see in the commentary I saw in the commentary during the election About how poorly Taiwan was doing Actually did not match my perception of the reality the reality is actually better than the public opinion about the economy And the perception of being at a disadvantage in cross-strait trade I think is distorted in the direction of negativity when in fact Taiwan has taken Considerable gains from its position as a supplier to the Chinese market or producer of goods from the Chinese platforms on behalf of Taiwan corporations and trademarks, so I think That's the first observation second observation is it's all headwinds out there today China's slowing down Europe's not going anywhere. We're not as fast as we need to be and the emerging markets are really so Taiwan and the candidate taiwan argued for Exploration of new markets and new platforms for Taiwan to be to reduce the dependency on the mainland. That's something that Business people throughout Taiwan can can resonate with I've talked to Leaders of corporations for years have been trying to get that kind of Dispersal of their assets of the not wholly dependent on the On China and they've had a very hard time doing it You run into all sorts of impediments in places like India or Indonesia Indonesia's infrastructure is in terrible shape If you're moving lots of cargo, it's very hard to do it with the infrastructure and the condition It is in Indonesia Vietnam is kind of saturated almost any any Chinese excuse me Taiwanese Entrepreneur who's looked for another platform has already moved there You have apparel and and the footwear have already moved out of douan down to Vietnam and all other Platforms so there may not be as much growth there in terms of alternates. There may not be as much growth globally because of the Very strong headwinds that they face. So I think frustration could set in very early if they don't make an early effort to Dial back expectations once they take the administration over in May They do have I think a lot of political capital to exploit certainly with this big majority and the legislative young and other strong Even if reduced total vote strong percentage of the share of the votes that So I won in the election a lot of political capital and I've heard very smart things When Joseph Wu came here a few weeks ago to talk about the aftermath He talked in terms that really made Me feel as a former American official trying to fight the top the Taiwan fight felt very good because he talked about deregulation in the domestic market and Reducing the tendency to protectionism Well, a lot of people who watch Taiwan, of course, they're tremendously effective in the international markets with great products But people are often don't get often don't get exposed to the Protectionist sentiments and regulatory environments inside Taiwan It's very similar to Japan where you had the great trading companies going all over the world We're getting into the Japanese market was tough and Taiwan possessed lots of difficulties Joseph Wu and his remarks. I think it was in a Q&A period talked about the pork and beef problem and and the Domestic roots of the problem that that has helped prevent the US and Taiwan from reaching a trade and investment framework agreement Because we can't get past the agricultural issues. He presented a a workable and agenda Addressing the the underlying diseases and competitive issues and if he can do that and we can do that in other areas the way forward to a trade and investment framework agreement should be pretty good but never Underestimate the difficulties of doing that because of the domestic politics involved Final observation before we open it up to Q&A Our friends across the street at the Peterson Institute have done a very interesting study of the effects of the trans-pacific partnership out to 2030 and the By and her government have expressed over and over again the desire to be into RCEP and the TPP Going forward and I think the US in principle supports that although we understand there gonna be difficulties finding a consensus among the parties to Bring Taiwan into the discussions We can go into that in more detail of it's what people want, but the what's interesting in the Peterson study is the net effect of TPP once it gets legislated and Implemented is going to be a reduction in the overall trade volumes By what for China is a small amount, but nonetheless a reduction of about 18 billion dollars a year in trade that they will now lose to Trade partners within the 12 of the TPP who would do preferential deals with each other rather than go to China Interestingly Taiwan's a net winner again by almost Risable small one, but Taiwan under the model employed, which is a good model employed by Peterson I want to gain a billion dollars a year in new market access So against the headwinds there is that little bit of a boost that and which I hope that it will Give further encouragement to people in Taiwan who have to deal with the practical problems of getting ready To be able to be a partner in the next round of trans-pacific partnership negotiations that's if Taiwan joins TPP No, this is with Just being outside of TPP now They will gain from the trade arrangements that will be distorted in some words or enhanced in other words by the TPP arrangements Well with those observations, it's a lot more we can talk about but I think it'd be a good time to ask members of the audience to join in We've got microphones on both sides of the room the first hand that went up is behind the camera back there so if you could help him Thank you. Hi, Joe Bosco formerly with the Defense Department welcome Allen Thank you for your incisive analysis particularly with regard to cross-strait relations Wonder if you would comment on the impact of the anti-succession law of 2005 Which threatens the use of force against Taiwan as you indicated? size assurances to China that she will not declare independence Takes care of one part of that law, but the other part says that if China reaches the conclusion that Peaceful unification Prospects are exhausted it will resort to non-peaceful means Yeah, I mean, I think that's very important, but I also think that There is not any prospect that they're going to cross those lines Right. I mean the the way that the anti-succession laws you obviously very well know Came to came into being first of all it replaced previous white papers remember the infamous third if of a previous white paper which said if Taiwan does not In a particular in an unspecified period of time negotiate Reunification that didn't mean just sit down at the table. It meant conclude a negotiation then the PRC would Turn to non-peaceful means or use of force. I don't remember how the white paper put it I think that the anti-succession law Was carefully framed not to force Beijing's hand That is if there were three conditions, right? One was movement to independence. The second was Adopt some kind of steps which inevitably would lead to independence. I don't know what that means Nor did I get a very clear answer when I asked PRC friends in Beijing about it and the third was closed as you said close the door to Reunification I can't see anything that's going to come out of Side administration Which is going to close the door to? Any outcome particularly I don't think she's going to promote re-unification, but I don't think that when somebody says as she has Consistently said that the ultimate decision is up to the people That then as the president You you close one of the options remember going back I Think it was in the 2008 election. I'm not absolutely positive both parties Came to the position that the ultimate decision on Taiwan's relationship with the mainland was up to the people It wasn't up to the parties wasn't up to the president It was up to the people But that clearly wasn't going to be something to be looked at for a very very long time And I think that essentially is still the position that people have so I Think I think paying attention to the anti-succession law Is as you suggest in your question an important thing to do, but I'm not I don't see that as a problem If I can just Add on a little bit Joe the I think it's important to remember the context of beyond what the white papers had done The context of the creation of the anti-successional law. I would agree with Alan very much It's a fact we have to have it as a consideration People need to be concerned that it's there still but it was in the context of a draft national unification law That was supposed to be more proactive They said if they do not unify then they'll use force and it got my it migrated over some months to a negative action if you don't declare independence then This will be peace will be maintained But if you declare independence then force will be used so there's a there's a nuance, but it's an important nuance that started with I think timetable for reunification and by the time who didn't tell came into office Whatever else you think about his overall performance He saw that as a that timetable as a time bomb and he wanted to diffuse it before it blew up So that's how we ended up with the Taiwan anti-successional law also one if I may one other point about this was That law was drafted in anticipation of a DPP victory In the LI elections of 2004 right and you didn't get that But they went ahead to go ahead and pass that law So it was on the on the books and I some of my my colleagues in Beijing said it was Also a way to sort of hem in those who would want to seize on any old event as an excuse to ramp up pressure they wanted to control The process so they went ahead anyway to codify the anti-successional law, but it was a Chun Shui Yan era Law it was a concern that the LI was going to also become a DPP Majority and They were concerned about where in that era that would go go back to Doug's point We're not in the same kind of situation in my view at all today other questions up here in the front row Mike Fonte Mike Fonte, I'm the director of the DPP's mission here. Thanks very much very good discussion Just want to underscore what you just said about how and about the parties and size certainly Reiterated that is no party can make that decision for the people of Taiwan It's up to the people of Taiwan to make the decision about the future and I think that leaves open the door as you said for The future could be whatever the people of Taiwan want it to be It's then up to the PRC to win the hearts and minds and adequately I just want to underscore that because I think it's been a very important part of of her Conversation during the this this campaign not just back to 2008 You remind me of something which is that? In the debate on December 27th It's I said the 1992 Consensus is not the only option. It's an option, but not the only option which upset some of the people in the party Who felt that oh, oh, she's about to cave in and accept the 92 consensus But it is basically consistent with the position that you know, it's up to others It's up to the people to decide this and we're not going to rule in or without things We have our own preferences. We know what we think people want We know that the polls consistently show strong opposition to unification But but that's an issue for the people for the future It's our second role. Thank you for wearing your nice red coat for the day. Happy new year I've been new year. Thanks dogs and Alan for doing this I have a two question. The first one is, you know, you just mentioned no matter how hard the government in Taiwan You know going to work at the headwind is not really, you know in their favor economic situation so Instead of encouraging do more trade. Is there any way that they can focusing on, you know, nation-building like a bringing Company back to Taiwan or a deregulation, you know, based on your experience in Taiwan and second question is about the transition Alan mentioned that briefly. So doc, do you have any suggestion that how could they do you think that the four months period needed to Be fixed or how can they, you know, do the better job based on us experience? Thank you Not going on us experience. I'll answer my response to the second question first Which is I really hope they can as Alan expressed find a way Ultimately it's going to be a constitutional revision in the terms of office that has to be addressed and it'll give the Maybe that'll put life back in the KMT when they figure out how to use the extra votes They need they control to get to a majority that all can accept Madam majority three-quarters majority that all can accept in order to have a constitutional change written into the law on the first question, I think there's lots of opportunity for Strengthening the competitiveness of Taiwan industries as I mentioned Joseph who child she has talked about the agricultural the stage stages of agricultural reforms to allow the pig farmers to be able to market their product and then Be open to competition from American and other important pork product And then get us to the point where we can have a trade and investment framework agreement And we can start doing a lot of the things under that agreement that will enhance our Access to each other's markets The Taiwan also has another problem, which has not been to my knowledge of a feature of the campaign But which I observe as someone Working the region broadly and that is the We had the sunflower movement a year plus ago A year ago, and we have the Hong Kong umbrella movement of the previous year both of which really rhymed with each other Which is a lot of young people with good educations not getting the jobs and opportunities that their expectations led them to believe they would get and so we've in Taiwan we have the unusual circumstance of 171 universities for 23 million people producing a lot of People with BA and ES degrees and they can't get the jobs. They hope for that. You know the office the secretary the car While very good production line robot manager Clean factory jobs are going begging in Xinzhou and Taoyuan Because people don't want to Take a construct or a production line job anymore Even though the days of Darwin are long past us and these are quite good places to work and they pay good income There's there's needs to be an improvement in the Match between the labor market and the people coming into that market now There's one of the items on the reform program of the DPP for their administration is education reform now if that turns into Decentification probably and that's where the energy goes that would be really misallocated resources in my view if it goes into Re-examination of the Lee Yuan Zhe reforms of what 1998? I think it was which are extremely unpopular with parents all of all sorts in Education leading up to the university level and then a really look at the university level allocation of resources These universities are all getting a share of the same budget Which means that the really good universities get less than they should and the lesser universities are getting more than they should So helping to do fundamental Education reform will stand Taiwan very much actually it was it was what made Taiwan move to the IT revolution in the 1980s and 90s because you had such a great basis And now re-examining the basis for the new challenges of the new economy is what I would urge Just one thing on the transition issue I guess if they want to move away from holding Ly elections and presidential elections on the same day back to the previous system Then you might not get this same gap But I think there are a lot of reasons to hold those elections on the same day myself Anyway, it's got to be fixed It just is a situation that I think does not help Taiwan at all, but it is very difficult And I don't envy people the the task of finding the right way forward as Doug says perhaps a Constitutional change or anyway, it's going to be a very serious matter But it does need to be addressed you can always look at the example of Myanmar and congratulate yourself I'm only having a four-month cap Myanmar struggles with its democracy the second row here Hi, my name is Arthur Jay. I'm business follow right now. I CSI Just curious it's being widely discussed that the PRC now is trying to develop some kind of new formula for cross-relationship And it's also been said widely that is PRC also is taking a wait-and-see Strategy and what in your opinion? What kind of formula do you think is possible? that can be implemented in the future in in a cross-relationship for PRC or Exactly, what is the best timing for them to bring out such a new plane? I'm not one who speculates that they're going to come up with a new formula I think that you I don't rule it out, of course, but Xi Jinping is personally Endors this several times very publicly and very forcefully and so To back away from the essence. I don't you know 92 consensus itself as the DBP likes to point out This is a sushi invention, but the the actual I believe there was a consensus In 1992 it didn't was not one piece of paper It was that there is one China not there will be not there was there is one China And it is that which the PRC insist upon Right, and I don't see whatever the wording might be them backing away from the essence Some people say oh well look they're talking about one China not the 1992 consensus I Frankly, this is a distinction without a difference in my mind it The 92 consensus in a way provides a little more flexibility for people perhaps But the essence of it as viewed from Beijing clearly is one China One China to which both Taiwan and the mainland belong and I for one I may be wrong But I don't see them moving away from that whatever words they might use to describe it so That would be my my reaction wait and see I mean I think in terms of what they whether they react whether this Liberty Times interview that Doug and I've talked about Is sufficient to cause them to hold back on some of the steps that they might have been taking Frankly, I hope so but I don't know so so we'll have to see and But but but this point that Doug raised about Denying what even today You see statements coming out of Beijing which says they must so I must accept The 92 consensus and its core essence of one China to which both Taiwan on the mainland belong Next sentence if anybody were to deny Bah bah bah bah bah, well, she's not going to deny in my view right the question is whether she simply doesn't accept But acts in a way which in fact is as I would put it not inconsistent With what the PRC wants is that kind of is that going to work? And that's what I think that one would hope that the PRC Would give some flexibility I won't speak to that point particularly but raise a general question, which is in my mind I think Helen and I may differ a bit on the implications of this for Taiwan, but I'd if I were in Beijing, I would be seeing an accumulated series of setbacks there was widespread anticipation through mid-December that Korea North Korean relations with China were on the mend and you we've had the the young leader surprise of Beijing and Which has led to a kind of bitter reaction Officially by China to what the US and others are calling for South Korea in terms of more strengthened sanctions They've had their setbacks in the South China Sea and some gains, but on the whole in the next week We will see the 10 leaders of ASEAN gather in California, and it will not be a love session for China there'd be different views about different things, but it will not be a love in for China and Cross-strait relations now years of investment in Taiwan in terms of concessionary trade arrangements and other things that travel back and forth I Could imagine somebody arguing it's been a failure. We need to use tougher measures I think Alan makes and maybe you want to make the point that That this is different the foreign policy and the Taiwan type issues fall into different categories I'm willing to accept that but I can imagine a climate of beleaguement and then you add added that the the headwinds they're facing in the Chinese economy With a lot of missteps by people who we thought were otherwise competent in areas that we didn't expect to see missteps What that does to the mood in China? We hope it I hope that the state craft Agent Peng's visit to the US helped to provide some stability to sign a US relations into the broader framework That the visit of Xi Jinping to Washington for the nuclear summit will be a further chance to Fine-tune our relations and to keep these things from unwinding in a political year We'll have other meetings of APEC and G20 posted by China So there's room for statecraft to manage these sorts of things, but I would be concerned about the turbulence It's building behind the seats Questions yes, sir. Thank you. My name is Kunio Kikuchi and I'm Retiree from the World Bank after 31 years of service the first TV program the presidential Debate was the first one was in 1960 and Perhaps Alan remembers the one of the key foreign Issues foreign policy issues was the question asked to Nixon and Kennedy What would would you go and help? Taiwan if China attacked Kemoi and Matsu That was a question I wonder what mr. Trump would say if the same question were asked and I'm so Taiwan does not even become an issue in the presidential debate today So I think things are much better than in those days the other TV That I remember is last year. It was the 70th anniversary of the victory of China over Japan Parade in Beijing and they went back to the 1930s and touted how one group of you know Chinese PRC troops Bravely defended the homeland against the invading Japanese I'd say maggots but That's history, but I'm curious today Your history goes back only to 1992 if the Chinese were to go back the same amount as they did in the victory parade Taiwan was part of Japan and there after it would have been fully independent Except that that's not what you would say and what the United States would say Thank you. The question is Ah Sorry Are you aware that? Or why isn't it isn't it that the relationship between Japan and Taiwan today is not even mentioned Last year three million Taiwanese visit Japan. Thank you Well, I think that the relationship with Japan is mentioned quite a bit in Taiwan Well, you know the US has been very supportive of Taiwan having relationships good relationships With its neighbors and some people say oh well the US should worry that Taiwan is going to lean to Japan and Somehow lean away from the US. I'm not worried about that so The only other point I guess I would make is that there seems to be a competition between the KMT and the DPP for who has Better relations with Japan right and both claim they do they have very good relations and That's fine. That's good, and I think that that will continue to be the case just observe. There's a very It's embedded in Taiwan society as a is an affinity with Japan that you know There's some things where there are irritations and differences as in all relationships, but there's a lot of good feeling about Japan as a destination for tourism Blue and green forces both. I think the DPP has worked hard to develop a fairly good relationship with the powers in Taiwan as there's always been Constituencies within the Japanese political elite that leans toward Taiwan as an independent force away from China and they resonate with each other fairly well, but it's got a very deep almost a DNA quality to it that's and Goes back and forth between Japan and Taiwan having said that I really don't anticipate What some people speculate which is that there'll be a Taiwan Relations Act passed by the Japanese diet or some kind of security Relationship will be built between Japan and Taiwan. I think those are going to be They're not going to be on the agenda Yes, sir. Thank you for doing the same Chinese new year. Thank you And my name is Donghui Yu with China reveal news agency We have heard some concerns that expects by some Chinese scholars that the US may Want Taiwan to play a bigger role in his Asia Strategy and in South China Sea and every time when we ask the similar question to the officials they always ask Answer that that there will be no change of the US policy toward one China's three communicates TRA something like that, but from the perspective of the scholars What do you think of this issue will the US next administration? Use Taiwan as a kind of chip or Ask Taiwan to play a bigger role in the context of the increasing strategic competition between us and China well My view on that is that doing what those people suggest that you just described would not be in US interest it would not be in Taiwan's interest and not be in the interest of general peace and stability. I think what Taiwan does play are obviously a role in maintaining peace and stability in the region Plays a very important role and not only do we have all the various relationships that we have Through our unofficial ties, but the security relationships arm sales other kinds of security relations Maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is really quite crucial And my own view is that to the extent that the United States Saw it to and to enlist Taiwan in a strategy to Deal with or confront the PRC Would Really be very harmful. It would sort of prove the point of some people in the mainland say aha This is what the United States is doing. It is it the US says it is okay on whatever relationship we have But it's not really true. You want to perpetuate separation and even Taiwan independence and I think that that is a very unhappy scenario for Taiwan for US interests If you want me to predict what the next administration would do I think I would beg off of that. I don't know But I would comment that a lot of presidents have come in over the years Who have been very sympathetic to Taiwan? We remember Ronald Reagan came in In essence just after normalization wanted to restore officiality to the relationship at least during the campaign They face a certain reality Which doesn't allow you to do that Doesn't mean you withdraw very close relationships with Taiwan and don't support Taiwan and so on and so forth but that's different from what a lot of them have talked about and I think there is a As I say a certain reality that Faces any American president I completely agree with what Alan has said just Just add further that mr. Rubio has already put out a statement Which talks about getting higher ranking officers to go to find a lot of things that have been on the Right-side agenda for some time I think if you were elected he would have as much trouble as Alan suggests Reconciling that kind of political promise with the other interests that America has so As the campaign goes forward I expect there be some competition to I'll do one another in these areas at least through the primary period before we get into the General election and one other thing to say is if there were a security crisis In the Taiwan Strait it seems to me that puts a lot of things up for new decisions I don't think there's going to be a security crisis In the Taiwan Strait. I just don't see you know going back to the Joe Bosco's question I mean, I don't see this happening. So I don't think that that's an issue that's going to confront Any more questions? Thank you. Happy Chinese New Year, and my name is Zhang and I'm from Shanghai. I'm journalist It seems to me this South China Sea issue will be very important and sensitive to China when and I think both Beijing and Washington have a lot of expectations upon her and a few days back President Ma Ying-jeu landed in this typing island, which was not welcomed by Washington, but last time when this Chen Shui-bian was landing there was no response from the White House at all and Do you think China may have to visit typing island within her tenure again and Do you expect China when to do some quite important things on this South China Sea issue to favor the White House like China when may need to dismiss the nine dash or 11 dash kind of clean because this Taiwan or this Republic of China was the Regime which was together with international society back in 1940s on this issue. Thank you Yeah, I think that this whole question of the South China Sea is important and sensitive I have no idea whether it's anyone thinks you would need to visit typing But keep in mind the situation is very different in the South China Sea altogether in terms of the overall climate political climate strategic climate from When when Chen Shui-bian went so I wouldn't draw any necessary Parallels there. I don't think I don't think the situations are the same And I also don't think that it's obviously a right the US was not thrilled about Ma's trip But it's also not a huge deal and as we saw After having expressed its concerns it also made clear that It was very supportive of Ma's peace initiative in the South China Sea Which it has said before as well as in the East China Sea, so I don't see that as a lasting issue One of the interesting things coming up, of course is the international tribunals Verdicts and it's verdicts plural on the Philippine case and one of the issues I guess the Philippines has asked that the court rule on is the Legal standing of the so-called nine dashed lines from the Taiwan point of view the 11 dashed line My understanding is that both the Ma administration and the DPP have Not directly addressed that issue But what they have said and they have said in common is that they based their positions on International law including particularly the UN convention on the law of the sea How that How the court decides how the administration in Taipei whether it's Ma because the decision may come down While he's still in office or Tai if it comes down after she takes office We'll have to see but I think that the adherence to the rule of law Will be a very strong feature the one area where it could get Particularly sensitive, I guess is if the court were to agree with the Philippines that typing doll is not an island in the sense of meriting a 200 nautical mile easy and and a shell and I think that presents some real dilemmas the modern administration has already said as Beijing has said it will not go along with that so I don't envy Anybody having to cope with that kind of a decision. But anyway, as I say, I think focus on the rule of law Is going to be the way this is going to be handled certainly hope common sense prevails among the justices On the arbitral panel because it strikes me as defying common sense to make a ruling that typing doll is not an island For the purpose, but it's certainly theoretically possible and it couldn't be a very sticky matter happens I have a Another observation to make which you know, I would we've had people argue that the US and Japan ought to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea I personally have been opposed to that because I think And in China have enough issues among themselves without burdening them cells with unrelated issues in the South China Sea and Firing up the Japanese excuse me the Chinese public opinion on this which only restricts the manoeuvering rule of the Chinese leadership Sponding to these things mixing apples and oranges. It's not a good idea I would say the same for Taiwan getting involved in the South China Sea to speak except for Taiwan itself has its relations has its core interest in Handling this know of one question for the Tsai government going forward is whether or not to open the archives that lay behind the 1947 publication of the 11 dash line and The administration has been pressing hard behind the scenes to get modded to that and he's been unwilling There's an expectation. I don't know whether it's well-founded or not There's an expectation that if these archives are opened We will find out. This was simply a navigational chart. It was not some kind of territorial claim From the American point of view this would diminish China's claim And from Taiwan's point of view you probably have different opinions but ranging across the need to protect Taiwan's Sovereign claims wherever they are but keeping in mind that the claims we're talking about or maritime claims And the US is not going to get into the question of claims to pieces of turf Last chance for a question from anyone Well with that we want to thank you for staying with us and wish you all the very best for the Chinese New Year holiday Thank you How are you