 Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to this week's, or this month's I should say, non-farm payrolls webinar covering the US jobs report for October. Just a little bit of housekeeping first. Quick risk warning. Put that on the screen for you. Hopefully everyone can hear me loud and clear. Any questions? Please feel free to direct them to me by way of the chat in reply to the message that I've just sent out. While I talk about the risk warning, obviously we also have not only the US jobs report, but we also have the Canadian jobs report as well. So I think certainly be an awful lot of interest I think in the movement in the dollar CAD. Given the recent decline in monthly GDP out of Canada in the wake of those two rate rises that we've seen in the last couple of months from the Bank of Canada. Also looking forward to a Fed rate rise at the December meeting. So quite a bit to get through. Also looking ahead obviously to payrolls data and the big bounce back. Expecting a big bounce back after the very surprising decline in US jobs that we saw for September. Which was affected to a large extent by Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma that really did skew the US jobs numbers quite significantly. So I think what I'm particularly looking for this month is the effect on the dollar. Because I think since we last spoke on non-farm payrolls, it's hard to believe it was only a month ago and we saw that move down in Eurodollar. And a big bounce in the dollar on the back of that big jump in average earnings in wages. And I think it's the wages data that's probably going to drive this particular jobs report because I don't think really we're expecting anything significant. Any significant market moving number unless we get a really really poor headline jobs number. We saw a big jump to 2.9% in wages and that prompted the dollar to jump quite sharply and prompted us to push down here on Eurodollar 21670. Now obviously since then we've broken below 11670 and we've broken out of what I would call this head and shoulders reversal pattern here. Now that does suggest to me that we could well get further dollar strength going forward. So I think if we get a weak jobs number or a weak wages number we could see a little bit of dollar weakness and we could see a rebound in Eurodollar. If we look at the dollar index we can see that played out slightly similar fashion on the Bloomberg here. My Bloomberg chart what I'm going to do is draw a horizontal line through this series of peaks here and we can see on the dollar index this inverse head and shoulders. We've broken through it which would appear to suggest that we're on course for further dollar gains. But before we get to bullish on this we obviously need to stay above 94 on the dollar index. If we get a slightly weak wages number we could see a bit of a sell off in the dollar but as long as we don't break below 94 then I think the prospect of further dollar strength remains the most likely outcome. But obviously we have to put it in the context of obviously this week's Fed meeting where the Federal Reserve upgraded their outlook for the US economy. We've also got a new Fed chief Jerome Powell who will be taking over from Janet Yellen in January of next year. Now he was the continuity candidate and ultimately he was the candidate that I expected to be nominated to replace Janet Yellen. So really now it's a question of he may be a slightly more dovish candidate but we still don't know who the vice chair will be. That could still be John Taylor or it could even be Kevin Walsh. Ultimately time will tell with respect to who the nomination will be for the vice chair but certainly in the context of where we are now. The continuity candidate is probably not going to change too much with respect to Fed policy and ultimately I think what that will mean is we will continue to see a continued move higher in the US dollar. And as such I still expect to see Euro dollar head back down towards 112. Now it's a fairly easy calculation as to why I think that. The reason I think the way that I do with respect to that is purely measuring price objectives. While we remain below this neckline here around about 1680 then the line of release resistance we measure the peak of the move at 120 here down and project down from the break of the neckline. So 120, 170, 116, 170 is 400 points projected downwards from 116, 170 brings you to 112, well 112, 170, 112 and a half. So simple calculation sell Euro dollar on any rallies and only stop yourself out if we break back above 117 or we break above this trend line from the highs that we see. Simple rule of thumb, as soon as the trend looks as if it's going to break you go the other way. So we looked at yesterday's peak in Euro dollar, if you're going to have a short position in Euro dollar then ultimately it's going to be above, any stops are going to be above yesterday's highs. So you may get a spill over towards 117 but what you don't want to see happen is it move much above 117, 117, 10 otherwise you're going to get squeezed out. So what would cause a weaker dollar? Well we could see the payrolls number miss, falling, coming quite considerably short, we're expecting a big bounce back. Obviously the September number came in at minus 33, I will be looking for a revision there, we could see an upward revision back into positive territory that would be positive for the dollar. But then again we could see the forecast number come in actually slightly lower. Now I'm less interested in the headline number more than I am the combined total of the two months divided by two. Because generally if we're still averaging around about 170, 175,000 jobs per month then ultimately that ties in with the long term trend for the US labour market. The jobs number here, the wages number here 2.7%, if that comes in significantly weaker say around about 2.6, 2.5 again that's going to be $30 negative. I still think there is some underlying pent up inflation building up in the US economy that we're not actually seeing in the headline numbers quite yet. We're seeing it in the ISM reports, we're seeing it in manufacturing where prices paid is coming in quite high. We also saw very, very strong employment components in the September ISM reports for manufacturing and services but we didn't see that play out in the headline number of minus 33. So there is a little bit of a disconnect between what the BLS numbers are, the Bureau of Labour Statistics are telling us and the ISM. Now I'm getting asked what I'm expecting with respect to the cable and sterling end with respect to the payrolls numbers. And certainly let's start looking at the key levels, we've got to look at the key levels in your dollar, let's look at the key levels in cable. The key level in cable that I'm looking for is $130.20, why? Well we can look at this chart and it's immediately obvious right here. We've got the 100 day moving average which we've managed to hold above since we broke above it in June. We've had a little bit of a flirtation either way but we've managed to hold this uptrend that we've been in since those March lows. So we're a very, very key inflection point here on cable. I don't want to see us move below $130.20 today because if we do then the likelihood is we're going to come back down towards the 200 day moving average around about $120.80. So where the pound is at the moment is very, very key in the context of where we go to next. I'm a little bit concerned about the pound at the moment because certainly in the context of last, of yesterday's rate hike, what I didn't expect to see was the Bank of England to come in as dovish as they did. Because ultimately if they are concerned about upward pressure on inflation, they don't want a weak pound. And ultimately everything that they did yesterday apart from raising rates was really undermined the pound quite significantly. And that's really borne out in the fact of the way that this has shown here. So if we look at the lows that we've seen in October, so we're around about $130.10, $130.20. So any move below $130.20 and the lows that we saw in October for me I think is a red flag for any short-term sterling strength. And we could see a little bit of weakness back towards the 200 day moving average. So are we looking at that very, very closely today? A weaker number obviously we'll see the pound edge back up towards around about $130.50, $130.32. So I'm still minorly bullish on the pound at the moment, but we are at a very, very key level right now. I don't really want to see a move below $130.20 today. At the moment we're squeezing higher, that's not really surprising. We're seeing a little bit of euro sterling weakness which is helping keep a floor under the pound. What is interesting about euro sterling however is how these two moving averages here are starting to act as a little bit of a cap around about the highs that we saw yesterday. So if we look at say $89.40, we've got the 50 day starting to roll over the 100 day. That could act as a little bit of a cap in the short term. We did find very, very decent support at the 200 day moving average as well. So we're getting a little bit of sterling strength which is helping to support the cable as well. Let's look at dollar yen because dollar yen is going to be very key. A good solid dollar number should see us move back to 114.14. That is a huge number. We've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 tests of 114.40. So any positive dollar number needs to clear 114.40 to push dollar yen up towards the range highs. So I would be very reluctant to get aggressively long anywhere at these sorts of levels because we've got significant area of resistance all the way through here. Is the momentum there to take us through 114.40? Unless we get a very good, good dollar number, I would doubt it. With respect to equity markets, we're pretty much well bid at the moment. The FTSE is struggling because the pound is rebounding. But if we look at where the FTSE is, there's big, big resistance anywhere between 75, 80 and 7,600. So we may get a retest of 7,600, but again, momentum is finding it difficult to be maintained. But if you look at the S&P, if you look at the DAX, if you look at the Nikkei, we're pretty much buy on dips at the moment. We can see that here. Had another positive week for stocks. We've seen new records again. And again, it's very much a case of buy the dip. So if you see a little bit of a dip in the S&P in the DAX, in the DAO, it's pretty much buy the dip, sell the rally. And that's essentially the way you play it. Quickly look at sterling end for you, Bilal. Hopefully it'll tie in again here. This is the one hour chart. We're looking fairly well supported just below 149. We saw a bearish reversal a few days ago and we saw one yesterday. But we're finding support on the cloud. So I think as long as we stay above the cloud here, around about 148.80, then we could well see a nice little rebound. I will be very surprised if we break down below into the cloud, unless obviously Dolly N takes a significant dive and Cable doesn't push higher to compensate for that. So essentially, I'm still a buyer of sterling on dips until such times as we break the recent. The highs in euro sterling at 89.40, the 130-20 level in Cable. So we're counting down. Also got the Canadian Jobs Report. Quickly cover that. Looking for again a 15,000 jobs on the Canada. Quickly look at DollarCAD and look at the key support levels on that. Hopefully I just clicked on DollarCAD there. Yeah, here we go. So looking a little bit toppy around 129.25.30. Quite a way away from that at the moment. Stuck in the range there at the moment on the DollarCAD. I will now be quiet and look to digest these numbers as they come in. Okay, so we've revised up 18,000 on the October 261. So that's slightly disappointing on the headline number. We're looking at the average earnings. That's the monthly number that we're seeing there. We're not expecting 2.7. That is wrong. We're looking at 35,000 on the Canada jobs number. So that's very good for the Canada. Looking 261 on the headline number for the US. The unemployment rates dropped to 4.1%. And average hourly earnings has dropped sharply to 2.4. So that's a fairly weak dollar number. As you would expect, the pound has gone up. And now we need to keep an eye on EuroDollar around these sorts of peaks here around 116.90 or 117. We don't want to see a move above 117 on EuroDollar. Otherwise, we could see a whole host of stops get triggered up to around about 117.20, 117.30. So a slightly weaker dollar number. I'll be surprised if the dollar sells off particularly aggressively for the sake of those numbers. They are disappointing, but they don't change the story with respect to a US rate rise in December. They don't change that picture at all. Still a fairly healthy US labor market. The unemployment rate, as I say, it's dropped to 4.1%. Looking at the participation rate, the participation rate has dropped quite sharply from 63.1% to 62.7%. So that is a little bit of a concern. It suggests to me there's an awful lot of people who have dropped out of the US labor market. So by and large, it's not a particularly great report. Yes, the unemployment rate has dropped quite sharply. It has dropped to 4.1%. But that drop in the participation rate suggests to me that either the labor market is getting a little bit tired or people are becoming discouraged from working. So in the round, not a great jobs report, but not a particularly bad one either. So slightly dollar negative, but not enough to really push Eurodollar above 117. And that would suggest to me that we might have another go at that 116.191.17 area. But ultimately, I don't expect us to see a breakout of the range that we're currently in with respect to that we've been in today. So we've seen a move on the pound up to around about 131.20, 131.30. The bias are there. I think the bias in the pound for the end of this week really is for limited downside. I would not expect to see a move much below the lows that we've seen this week. That looks better on the weekly chart here. We can see it. This 130.20 area, here's a big, big level. So I will be surprised if we break below that. And I think we're pretty much done for the week on the back of that number. The bias is probably for a move back towards 131.5, 132.00. Eurodollar again, looking at this. We've traded in a range all week of around about 116.30, 116.20, 117.00, 116.190. Again, I would be surprised if we break significantly above that. If we do, then obviously rip out the stops and have another look at it. But from a dollar negative point of view, I think it's hard to make the case for a significant move out of the range that we've been in. FTSE 100, pretty uninteresting. Looking at gold, because that's a slightly dollar negative number, I think the bias here for gold is for a move back to around about 1290. I can't see us dropping much below the lows that we see this week at 1270. Looking at Brent crude, we've seen a move above the $60 a barrel mark here. We've seen a little bit of a bearish reversal, which would suggest that maybe we're probably going to run into a little bit of selling interest if we head back towards 62 and head back towards this trend line support here. Limited upside in Brent crude, we're starting to look a little bit oversold, overbought as well. So that would suggest to me that we could see a little bit of a correction back down towards $60 a barrel. We do look a little bit over extended on the top side. So I think for me that payroll's report was a little bit of a meh, a bit boring, doesn't really tell us anything new that we don't already know. And ultimately I think really it's now a question of looking ahead to what's coming up next week. Let's have a quick look at dollar CAD because ultimately that CAD report was a fairly positive report for the Canadian economy. A big jump in jobs and that should really point to further US dollar declines, Canadian dollar gains back towards around about 127, 21, 27, 30. And the levels that we saw towards the end of October here and we can certainly see that born out in this particular down move here. It does look as if we're starting to roll over on the dollar CAD and there's potential for us to probably drift back down now, particularly on the daily chart, back to rules around about 126. So again here I think on the dollar CAD look to sell dollar CAD on rallies back towards the highs that we saw earlier this week. Does anyone else have any questions on any of the markets that I've been talking about or haven't as yet come because I know there's a lot of you out there. So I'm just being asked about Euro dollar here. So given the number we had slightly weaker Euro dollar still looking to head south. Yeah, I mean as I say I've seen nothing in that number to suggest that Euro dollar can go significantly higher from where we are now. I very much trade on the technicals. So at the moment the technicals still point to a Euro dollar. I would only revise my review. I would only revise my view on a lower Euro dollar if we close back above 117 and break this trend line downtrend line here. So at the moment my bias is to still sell Euro dollars on rallies. At the moment I wouldn't run a short position over the weekend. A lot of things can happen over weekends but if I'm certainly looking towards next week then my bias is to sell Euro dollar on any strength for a move back to 116, 115, 70 and ultimately over the next two or three months for a move back to 112, 27. That is my bias. We've seen the breakout on the dollar index. Now the dollar index is 57% Euro dollar. So if you seen the break it higher on the dollar index you then extrapolate that into Euro dollar then ultimately I would expect Euro dollar to drift lower as long as the dollar index continues to push higher. So there's a complete correlation between two. So at the moment we've tried to push higher on Euro dollar we've tried to push through 116, 90 on two or three occasions. The longer we fail to do that the more likely it is that by the end of this afternoon we'll be back down towards 116, 30. It's just testing the boundaries of the range and we haven't been able to get back to 170 as yet. So that will be the way that I would play it. I'm being asked about Aussie dollar and the RBA next week. We've got the RBNZ next week so there's potential for moves there. The RBA is unlikely that we're going to see a move on rates from the RBA. We are seeing a little bit of a sell off at the moment in terms of the Aussie dollar which is good news for the RBA. The last thing they want is a strong dollar. I'm looking at the Aussie dollar at the moment and it's a similar sort of thing to what we're talking about on Euro dollar. If we look at this particular pattern here we've got a series of highs here through 77, 50, 77, 60. So we've got the peaks there. We broke above those peaks in July. We came back, retested them beginning of October. We've now broken below them. And while we're below 77, 60 then I would be selling Aussie dollar on rallies. It's a pure case of simple technical analysis when support and resistance reverse their roles. When resistance breaks it becomes support. When support breaks it becomes resistance. So while we're below 77, 60 then look to sell Aussie dollar on any rallies because I can't imagine that the RBA will be anything but particularly probably lean more to the dovish side. And essentially a strong Aussie doesn't help the Australian economy. So this week's meeting is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged or next week's meeting unchanged. 1.5%. Confidence in the job market has continued to grow but in common with the rest of the world wage growth continues to remain sluggish in Australia. So I wouldn't expect them to be in any way hawkish. Same applies to the RBNZ. They've just picked a new government. It's a minority Labour government. They are likely to be certainly a lot more interventionist with respect to monetary policy. And as a result we've seen a big big sell off in the Kiwi in recent months. And on that basis alone we could well see a little bit of a rebound is a big big support level in Kiwi around about 15, 68, 20. We could see a move back to around about 69, 60, 70 cents but we have broken out of a very, very long-term downtrend line on the Kiwi and that would suggest that over the longer term we'll drift lower. We say a little bit of we see a little bit of strength initially but ultimately while we remain below this trend line here and I can draw this and show you how I've drawn it from the 2015 lows depending on how we finish today we could actually start to go back towards 70 cents and head back towards there but while we remain below 70 cents the likelihood is we'll probably see a little bit of a drift lower but it does look a little bit oversold at the moment so be very, very careful about being aggressively short of it at this point in time. With respect to the US-30 yeah I mean it's pretty much the same old same old with the US-30. I think if you're trying to pick the top in US equity markets don't because ultimately this market continue to go higher on any dip for quite some time to come. Now why do I say that? Well simply because in the past when you've had sell-offs and stock markets you go back to 1987, you go back to 1997, you go back to 2007 usually when you get sell-offs and stock markets the money moves into bond markets. That is not happening right now because ultimately when bond markets when capital moves into bond markets in 87, 97 and 2007 interest rates were much higher much, much higher than they are now so ultimately why would you take your money out of stock markets and put the money into bond markets where you actually have negative yields or significantly lower yields than if you're putting your money in stocks essentially why every time you get a dip in the stock market you get a steady stream of buyers coming in simply because there's nowhere else to put your money. So if we look at the US 30 then at the moment we've got solid support around about 23,300. That suggests to me that ultimately whatever the data is unless you get a particular Black Swan event or something significant that really does undermine investor confidence the line of least resistance for stock markets is towards the upside I have a simple rule of thumb if the threat of nuclear armageddon out of North Korea isn't enough to cause a sell-off in stock markets you really got to ask yourself the question what will and if that's not enough to do it then ultimately then really the question is how do you trade it and the way to trade stock markets at the moment is to buy dips because if you try and sell rallies it's quite conceivable that you will get it down. And ultimately until the price action tells me something different the way to trade stock markets at the moment is to buy any dip in stock markets because every time you try and pick the top you end up getting squeezed out. I'm being asked what about the October Can it creep up eventually? What are you talking about? Can what creep up eventually? I'm being asked about Kiwi Yen and I'm being asked about Cable. With respect to Cable I'm still buying dips on Cable I think yesterday's sell-off was overdone we've got some data out next week from the UK on Friday manufacturing production and industrial production so I still think given what we've seen with respect to the PMI's this week that the UK economy is in probably better shape than most people give it credit for unemployment is still at multi-year lows in just over 10 days time we've got the latest CPI numbers and they're likely to come in around about 3.1% which means Mr Carney's going to have to write a telegram he's going to have to write a telegram he's going to have to write a letter to Philip Hammond the Chancellor he's going to list his inflation target and he's going to have to explain why and the reason is that he can't rate in August and he's exacerbated the inflation shock so by correcting that the hope is that inflation will start to move back to target so the cable outlook for me is buy on dips while above $130.20 for a move back to $132, $132.5, $133 and Euro sterling to drift lower Euro dollar I'm slightly bearish on and Kiwi Yen see if I can find that for you I don't think it's actually here so what I'm going to have to do is look it up so go to the library NZD slash JPY helps if I actually type Z and then you can actually there we go so Kiwi Yen chart not dissimilar to a lot of the other charts Kiwi Yen so this really ties in with my Dolly Yen theory if the Wild Dolly Yen is capped at 1.14.14 Kiwi Yen is really a Kiwi play if Dolly Yen does break above 1.14.14 then obviously all bets are off but ultimately your view on Kiwi Yen needs to be skewed by what you think the Kiwi is going to do Wild Dolly Yen's capped at 1.14.14 and at the moment there does appear to be some semblance of a little bit of a rebound here you've got a little bit of a bullish reversal on Kiwi Yen on the dailies here so if I'm looking for a particular level of resistance on Kiwi Yen really got to be looking at around about 79.26 so if I look at 79.26 on Kiwi Yen if we get a break of 79.26 then we could see a significant move back towards around about 81 so there is some evidence that it could be carving out a bit of a base but while we're below 79.26 look to sell Kiwi Yen on rallies for a pullback to around about 78.5 Alan I'm not sure what you're trying to ask me with respect to the October scare can you be a little bit more a little bit clearer because I don't quite understand the question do you're trying to ask me you said what about the October scare can it creep up eventually oh the every decade crash yeah I mean I did talk about a possible crash because it happened in October the question with respect to a crash is really a question of what's going to drive it and in 87.97 the crash we had the crash but the money had somewhere else to go the money had somewhere else to go in terms of bond markets because interest rates were higher so you can only have a crash if the money that comes out of the stock market has somewhere else to go now at the moment the only other place that if you pull money out of the stock market that it can go is you can sit in cash so for me at the moment the big unknown on any stock market crash where does the money go and I don't have an answer to that now you look at gold prices the money is not going into gold so you could argue it's going into bitcoin there is an awful lot more speculative money going into assets like bitcoin there is an awful lot of speculative money going into specific sectors of the stock market I can give you a good example of that tech you look at Netflix, you look at Amazon you look at Apple, you look at Facebook you look at AMD, the chip makers and Intel there is an awful lot of money going into chip makers because of the power of the chip sets that are needed to basically and data mining the blockchain so the more powerful chips become the much more cryptocurrencies will become very much involved now I am being asked if bitcoin will be offered on CMC we do have plans to offer bitcoin at some point in the future hopefully the plans for that will be advanced sometime in 2018 so yes we do have plans to offer it I don't have a time frame on it quite yet but we want to make sure that if we do offer bitcoin we do it properly and we are able to offer it in a way that our clients can trade it properly so I am hoping that answers your question the reason we had crashes in 87, 97, 2007 was because money had elsewhere the money from the stock market had somewhere else to go at the moment because interest rates are so low it doesn't and that's why it's very very difficult to call for a crash because ultimately you need to have an alternative destination for that money to go in at the moment we don't have one so hopefully that answers your questions with respect to the 2017 crash that's the only reason why I think we haven't seen one this year is that there is no alternative destination for the capital flow to go in the absence of anything else what's the future for cryptocurrency well I think there is a future for it the problem with it is which cryptocurrency is going to survive because there are so many different initial coin offerings some of them are very very dodgy and some of them are probably going to last the distance you've got Ethereum or Ether that's likely to be probably quite a fairly stable platform going forward but they are very speculative and ultimately if you're trading Bitcoin you're going to have to have very deep pockets it's not something that I would be keen to get particularly involved in on a speculative basis it's very much a pun and ultimately it's very very new and it's very very risky so from an investment point of view you've got to be very very circumspect when it comes to cryptocurrencies because given the moves that we've seen over the past two or three days if you can ride out a six or seven percent move in a day then good luck to you if you can't then I'd steer well clear of it has the euro dollar stopped driving the DAX no it hasn't I mean you look at it at the moment the DAX is likely to remain fairly well supported while the euro dollar is fairly weak if we look at the DAX the DAX is slightly flat today but there was a holiday earlier this week and we did see a big move up on at the beginning of the week we look at this big gap here and look at the gains that we've seen this week it's going to be very very difficult for the DAX to really consolidate the gain to really gain any more than it already has thus far so you look at the last two weeks we've broken aggressively higher from twelve thousand nine hundred and we are now thirteen thousand five hundred near as damn it really so we are due a little bit of what I would suggest is a consolidation on the DAX we've gapped higher as a general rule gaps generally get filled so in terms of where we could come back to that area here below thirteen thousand two hundred and fifty is probably going to act as support on any pullback so certainly I think if we see a pullback on the DAX we'll find support through thirteen thousand two hundred and fifty we shouldn't really drop much below that that will get filled it will act as support and then we'll probably go again so again with respect to any stock market pullback look to buy on dips thirteen thousand two hundred and fifty and we could see a little bit of DAX weakness and Euro weakness at the same time that's quite conceivable simply on the basis of the fact that the DAX is due a little bit of a pullback nothing goes up in a straight line the DAX is likely to be the same but I would still expect the DAX to be higher one month from now than it is currently at the moment any other questions ladies and gents otherwise I'll wrap it up for this month quick reminder of the weekly webinar that my colleague David holds on a Monday at twelve fifteen otherwise I'll talk to you all again one month from now in December when we'll be covering the November payrolls report so if there aren't any other questions I'd like to thank you very much for listening and wish you all the best for a great weekend cheers guys, thanks a lot