 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone, Basil Chapman. You know, there's 29th of January wrapping up the month, and you can see what a month it's been. Look at this leg, seeing the monthly chart of it down, all time high. I'm just missing it by a fraction today. So far, the highest, 38,163. The higher on Friday was 38,215. I believe, yep, 38,215. I'll just type that in here, 38,200. All of the show except on this particular chart. And I do have an alternate count here. So the reason why we have alternate counts is three-fold. One is, in the Chapman Way methodology, there is absolute clarity. And then there's this aspect where you've achieved your goal, which is to get to the fourth highest peak, and that's where other things can happen. What I've found over the years, I shouldn't even say perhaps decades, is that when I see an instant restart, that is the fourth highest peak, leg D, goes through peak D, and within three bars it makes an E. And then it has what I call an instant restart continuing higher so that you can have an alternate count. What it's really saying to you is that the strength in this particular vehicle that you're monitoring is so strong that when it has the next pullback and you do have it occasionally, but not that often when you get too consecutive instant restarts, that's fantastic if you can get it. But most importantly, what is happening is that at the ID, that's where you can get some kind of a consolidation. In that consolidation, you've got to monitor a couple of things. And one of the things that I look at that's really important is the nine-period moving average. I call it the indicator of last resort. Why? Look, the MACDs failed, although at this very moment it's very close to trying to turn positive. Stochastic is at 86%. I wouldn't call that a failure. That's very good. The on-balance volume is pretty good, but you don't have all the technical indicators in sync. So as a result, what I'm looking at here is that there's still internal strength. Now, put it together with all those round numbers that I saw. I don't want to go through them again today, but it was really quite incredible. I mean, even Johnson and Johnson, J&J, J&J, which is actually part of the Dow, had 162 when it made its most recent multi-month high, almost a yearly high, and had 162, 2163. But I'm monitoring that because that turns into a benchmark that you can look at because it was saw straight above 162. That's going to be very important. And why do I mention that? Because I don't really want to give this example, but I do because we're talking about technical analysis. But in a particular stock, something like DraftKings had a round number 44 sessions ago, and then it pulled back. It held the support level, and then today it popped up, and it went to 40.19. So that's Johnson and J&J, and that just says that 40 is going to become important, but later on. Now it's usurped that moment that says, uh-oh, if it pulls back even sharper from here, that 40 is going to be major resistance. Now it's almost like another magnet. So the way I read round numbers going back decades, I mean, going back to before the 1987 crash, with an 87 crash low, the day of the low, October the 19th, I saw so many round numbers, every single Dow stock. People were so afraid, it opened a round number, and then they would drop 20, 30, sometimes even more. 40% have a round number at the bottom and then close just above the round number or at the round number. And the next, it was up and away after that. So I look at this a little differently when I'm seeing it at bottoms as to when I'm seeing it at tops. And remember, tops, they're rotational, bottoms are synchronous. So in this particular instance, let's go back to what we were looking at. I'll just do it again. So the Dow is up 50, not a bad, not bad, 38.161, we've taken some insurance. Now we're looking at the S&P right here. S&P, not bad, not actually the Dow is up 0.15%, the S&P is up 0.13%. So up 6 at 48.96, still very good actually. It's now above the green, Chapman Wave inside track repellent line. So this is going to be much, much more important to monitor this particular point for internal strength. The cues are not quite as strong. They are up 0.17% up 70, a few percent of 424.53, but the chart formation says three days after the all-time high. Oh, I forgot to type that in. I think it was just, let's get there 429.85, missed the round number, 429. I'll just type it in there. It'll be in dark, but I just, 429.25. Yeah. Okay. So still very good, but those weekly charts, are still very strong. This is in leg C in the weekly chart. This is the QQ, leg B in the monthly. That's amazing. That just says 2020 is going to be a good year, even if we do have some sudden, very sharp pullback based on, I think that it's going to be more geopolitical, rather than just purely economic. Yeah, anyway, let's get to that when the time comes. IWM up 25 cents at 196.25, not doing all that well. I did not just do that, or did I do during the update? This little high grade copper, high grade copper, not bad coming back after two days of pullback. There was a really nice rally from 3.70s up to 3.80s, almost touched 3.90. So this is going to be very important, because I want to see high grade copper start to trade in February, about 3.95, preferably into the force. That'll be absolutely fabulous action. It hasn't done it yet. Let's just go to the bonds. Bonds right now are up 22.30s. You can see there's a lot of work that needs to be done in the daily chart. With your chart, the 90 is still over the 14. Let's go to the TLT, because most people look at the TLT rather than just bonds. TLT is very weak as the same chart. Had a peak, G8, 100.57. The 28th of December is pulled back from 100 to 94.34. I mean, these are bonds. So that's a big move, 6.6%. What we're looking at really is, within the context of this peak A in the weekly chart, a little doji candle at the high, two doji candles. You want to see bonds start to move into the 97.80, 98.20 area in the next week to say, hey, forget about yields. They're out the way. You don't have to consider them as an issue. But at this point, you've got to still consider that yields are pretty high. So I want you to get to this, and then we can go to all the other things. GDX. GDX had a really nice bounce to the 14-period moving average, that black line right there, 28.41. It went to 28.40. Now it's pulled back. It's down 10 cents at 27.96. You can see the second arch formation right here in the weekly chart. Sharply under the 200-period moving average, the 9-period is under the 14. This is kind of weak action. It hasn't broken down yet, but it's weak action. Let's just go to silver. SI, silver continuous contract. Actually, it looks a little better than gold, but it doesn't look great. And it's trading at 22.96 down 0.08, if it can actually trade between 23.50 and 23.82 in the next week, and then start to hold on a weekly basis, even one close above 24. We'll say, hey, slight change of pattern, but it hasn't happened yet. I did the hydrate carpet with that. Just quickly crude oil. Very sharp move down. 76.61 down $1.40. I'll be right back. We've got a bunch of questions in the den, and we'll just check in the YouTube. Yep, I'll be back. It does up 51. S&P's up 5. We'll see. 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The Gold Report New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. Available to all Tigers and Tigris for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com at 727-873-7618 My Vogue Spells of Chapman now is up 45 and we're looking at Amazon. Amazon comes out with earnings I think on Tuesday Wednesday, Thursday on Thursday. So, it's trading very well right now it's up 59 sets 159.70 All-time high don't forget was 188 back in the I have to say the decimals because I was talking about round numbers in this case 188.65 July 2021 has a little plummet 100 points down to 81.43 I think it was that was December 22 or January 23 and then it's had a fabulous move from that all the way up it's up at 159 right now legs C in the weekly sorry legs C in the monthly leg D in the weekly and a peak E and it did this 158.51 times two it did it twice and that to me is always just a clue to say okay keep monitoring this it's not a round number but it's just something to monitor because if a source to trade under that by about two points to the 156 level all of a sudden that whole 158.51 area becomes very strong resistance or should nominate would alright so as it says right now nothing to see here other than the nine period exponential just saying be prepared in the next couple of days there could be a pullback I wouldn't even say a couple of days in the next in the shorter term there should be some kind of a pullback you saw what happened right here look this on balance volume on the 18th of December when the prices were 154 it actually had another two days it went all the way to 152 point and now 155.63 and then it pulled back and then it pulled back quite sharply so this is to me just a heads up to say hey be a little careful I'm just sorry to get signs let's say that there's somewhat of an overboard situation in many of these keys so especially the Magnificent 7 and that's kind of a benchmark this decided I'll get back to estimation one I'm thinking of Amazon maybe just look at estimators 188.61 and up 35 cents made an all time high on Thursday just over 195 it was one 195.90 let me just change that over there 195.90 95 0.90 there it is and we are down just a little bit just 7 points of story at 183 oh 12 points no it's 188 sorry 188 and look at that tiny dojo candle also actually called tiny open and close on the last week but a long legged candle closing towards the lower end and it's to be monitored because at any point this week if it starts straight above 192 I'm gonna make it 192.10 so that could be the big pop on Thursday when it gets all that news on Friday could do that and holds there for over 90 minutes whatever the high is this week it should test that high I'm watching this very closely but it's only legged seen the monthly but on the short term I'm just monitoring why because it's really Amazon is really one of the very important stocks in the whole panapole of economic in the spectrum of looking at what the what the public does what the company does and how the market reacts to any news I think it's really important so that's Amazon so all I'm gonna say is that in this particular point I see upside resistance I see that whole area between 192 I'd even go to 198 I'm not sure I can go to 200 yet but up to 198 I think he's gonna be very strong resistance so we're gonna be monitoring Amazon not for this week but for next week how does it act and react next week to both earnings or whatever it is and as I said I'm we've taken an insurance policy on the market right now one of the one of the sectors I think it's important to monitor everything now with such a spectacular move from the October low through to November right through December coming into January it's just time for a breather and we'll see when it occurs. 50 FFTY that is the Investors Business Data Innovative IBD 50 ETF once was up in the in the 50s plummeted down to the low 20s now trading in 25 point 25 so I wouldn't be surprised if there's one little pop of the next couple of days and that means that one of the earnings in some somewhere you got so many fantastic stocks certainly coming up tomorrow today new Corbyl look at that and Cleveland Cliffs coming up I'll look at that in a moment I was asked if I could look at that I will but just for the moment I'm gonna say 2335 Stars Leg D and I wouldn't be surprised very soon after that there's some kind of a pullback in the nifty 50 now you see this monthly chart look at ARKK this is Kathy Wood it's her innovative it's a it's a little different hers is making higher highs and higher lows and the nifty 50 is not I don't think she has 50 stocks I don't know how many she has but she certainly has everything that comes down including Tesla buying was it almost 350,000 Tesla on last week and here it is at 184.76 had a one a round number 193 I said what said what round number 193 if it starts to trade above it it could maybe even go to the 200 level with pink nine-period moving out wow if it starts to trade with two out of three sessions below one below yeah 180.06 two sessions that just is oh man even the week he's making to make another yet another let me just do this for you right here so I'm coming back in a moment to the question of the nifty 50 well that's not the nifty 50 that's the investors business day remember they use all the can slam techniques etc so there are this is whoa right there 179 yeah that's what I was saying there 180 what just over 180 was the low in Tesla yes your third one to one to the downside this is a chapter way for me I don't want to draw it in right now which into a dreaded H and yeah what's that very closely so let's go back to the question which was 50 which is innovative IBD 50 ETF FFT why is the symbol 25 25 price right now up 20 I should say it's up 25 cents but it's not up 23 cents what a pity it would have been 25 25 up 25 anyway that's what I'm telling you that I think it's go there and then what would I expect I wouldn't be surprised if the pullback really carries you into the could it go to 23 80s where the 200 period moving averages I think first of all above that is really key so 24 30 a point lower if that is taken out its speed that I'm talking about if it's taken out in the next three days that's really not good and if it's taken out without making that peak D which is an alternate count right now I know it's I'm sorry it's not an alternate count it's a peak seed needs to go to I think it will touch that or double top I could call it a C1 C2 if it goes just a little higher than 25 29 the high was 25 34 that was on the 24th yeah anyway into the 20 25 and then I can and then fail then I'll call it a C1 C2 so it's very close very close right now it's not showing the kind of energy that in the technicals that I would like to see but it's held very nice I'll be back currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe which is why it's great time to try out teddy keg stats tiger 4x report teddy keg stat breaks down the 4x markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures 4x stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly tiger 4x report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs 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monthly chart this almost looks like arc in a way the monthly chart but not the daily or the weekly that's a little bit more improved so this is a peak C in the a leg C in the weekly chart now the quick quick question is that oh I never finished my what was I looking at that had that instant restart and then I never finished my sentence and what I wanted to say is when there's an instant restart and you look back there's almost as an instant restart it just missed it by a couple of pennies but I'll treat it as if it was just to show you something so in this particular instance when there's an instant restart and let's just go back to that where it was in the hundred and sixties and that was in november but then it breaks out very sharply and it did have an alternate count for a moment right there so within three bars it didn't take out the peak D so I'm still certainly I'm treating it as if it was just to demonstrate something 169.19 116 8.82 so it was a little bit lower but what happens is that instant restart down there is so powerful that the price if it goes sideways it tends to have spikes to the upside for a little while and that's exactly what we're seeing here even today it's up to 2.13 at 2.64 now normally what I would do is I'd say if that was the E then this would be a brand new peak A but here's your starting point right so that means I still have to consider that there could be an overlapping wave sorry let's just put that in there A right you got it so I need just for the moment to say F slash B as if it's a continuation pattern and one of that is one of the reasons is this instant restart in this case it just misses but technically it has a lot of almost all the characteristics except by 40 cents or something it didn't make a higher high the power of the move even when you get the mag D sharp you know this is the casting sharp you know the on balance run health and the 9 period health beautifully then it went for a day it went pink and then green and then for 2 days it went pink and now it's green and that just says to me it's starting to get kind of choppy here and that choppiness says I do have to have an alternate count if you're longing along from underneath this whole congestion area I'll call it the cup formation right here right here that cup formation I would just be looking at this and saying if you haven't already taken a little bit money off just in terms of money management take a little bit off but if your long position I would just hold it this is still acting superbly if it starts to fill the gap there's still a sideways movement congestion phase it's in a leg C in the monthly chart this becomes down arrow haven't updated it this becomes an up arrow this is in a buy mode so that's the most important so I would take a little bit off at 204 and I prepared to put that back at about 197 ish somewhere there just give me a yell and we'll do this together when you want you but in the meantime I'd be holding along just in terms of money management if you haven't taken something off that's what I would take a little bit off but I plan to put that same money back into the stock because this is a big turnaround the stochastic in the monthly chart is only at 72 I wish it would be at 80 and then I say yeah I really haven't got a full confirmation yet I have to wait for the month to finish this is the first time that the monthly has gone green it's still a couple of days to go before the munch ends and so that all I can say is and that'll be the first time it's ever gone green in the monthly chart in the 914 so this is way a little bit I think it's still acting quite well alright with that said another question K.O. and Palantir a few people asked me over the weekend and then again here in the den Palantir technologies trading at 16.84 up 50 cents it did a very quick peak A peak B peak C and then it gapped up to a D with its candle like a butterfly candle and I just said I'd be a little careful with this and it is pulling back but now it's in a containment area and that containment area better hold at 16.85 it better hold 15.9 15 now I'm going to give it 16.10 if it closes under 16.10 watch out not only could take out the left side lower about the 8th of December 8th of January I'm sorry but it could actually go to the 15.46 200 period exponential moving out it needs very quickly this one needs speed right now to get back above that gap area even though it's already filled it on the downside it needs to get to 17.37 up about 50 cents or so just to say hey I have room to the upside but that weekly chart I haven't put it down arrow yet I have to wait for the week to end but I'm real close to putting in a down arrow the cell mode in the weekly off-palantir question came in let me just see where it is there over there over there oops it's over here could I look at oh right FXI forgot a foreign look at the markets FXI had a very nice bounce give him back some today and that is the Isis China large-cap ETF 22.24 down 36 cents made a peak A last week after really I have to see where this Fibonacci comes from whoa am I going to squeeze it and squeeze it to see where the Fibonacci comes from I am am I squeezing the right now I went from squeeze to stretch oh my oh it goes all the way it goes all the way back to right there the high of July 28th of 2022 I drew in this Fibonacci and it hit most of the numbers finally enough and then it went right down to the low what was the low right here the low was 20.95 and 20.81 so 20.81 where the arrow up is there were two buy modes peak F pulls back goes to peak F and that was it at around about 33 38 or so something in the 33 30s pulls back and now what is it just recently retested to the lower I say was 20 in the 20 area and the most recent low was 21.20 21.20 yeah 21.21 so it's trying to get off the ground look at the way the stochastic has moved up so high and yet the price really hasn't done all that much when you think about it so let's see what would I do though FXI would I be buying this right now I don't have any sign that says to me buy it I'd rather be buying higher highs I'd rather buy one penny above 22 23.11 I would then nibble on a long position and that's the only way I would play it and even then I'd have a very tight stop I don't like this I think this China stocks and China ETF this FXI is really it's a problem right now I'll be right back bezel captain gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX, The Dollar, Bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back 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LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ yeah so I need you just do this for a moment yeah very nice okay so oh it's a 15 oh I wonder if I just missed it okay so what we're looking at right now is PayPal so I want to just go to the for the moment I just want to go back to okay and she yes okay so this is the way I think this might be just a lesson it's something that I've been working on for a little while because I like to change my modus operandi to the conditions that are extant right now and what I said for for Dwarf Kings was that we've got a position and what we want to do is with that $40 round number I said if it hits 40.15 we've got to take a little bit off so yeah you're looking at a chart you go oh that's fantastic and then you know what happens the chart turns back and looks at you and says ha watch this mister and look what it did it was looking fantastic it was up at the 1419 level and that's what I'm looking the reason why I did that is because I'm looking at so many stocks that are doing the same sort of thing they give you an opportunity and that's why I said just a moment to go to the question about snow I said you know take take a little bit off because you have to do money management in this market it is it was a straight up market now it's sideways my thinking is in February it's going to be for a little while it's going to be lower highs and lower lows just for a little while as we consolidate and that's the reason why I think it's really important I'm going to go back to PayPal and PayPal should be in this in the sweet spot in the sense that in this is really a stock that electronic payments and all that a lot of people that are that have this must be very much beholden to that because they you know you set it up you don't want to be changing it is not something that you say oh I will try for six months and then we'll move you've got you know what maybe hundreds sometimes thousands maybe tens of hundreds of thousands of people on the so look what happens it's turning up a 300 looks fantastic back in 2021 oh it has a little bit of a pullback and it goes to 50 and now is trading at 62 49 a very nice percentage up from the low but horrible and I'm saying to myself something's going on with a lot of these payment companies if they having this kind of a poor but maybe it's competition I don't know what it is but looking at the chart the severity of this pullback in this leg C is fine because you're looking at the 9-period moving average still positive even though it had a really sharp pullback if you look at the daily chart with the 200-period moving average I've learned over at least I'd say from maybe four to six months this patterns appeared very often it's a big spike up and it's usually from lows a big spike up and you come back and then you hold very nicely and then you start to move up and then instead of this being in this case an F it sometimes turns out actually this goes back not just recently I've done this is for maybe 14 years it's a pattern I've looked at and I don't really know how to pinpoint it to the extent that for a to systemize it to put into a computer program it's just a kind of complicated I do it visually and this assist me this is one where putting in an F slash A is very good because if the price holds and the stochastic starts to improve and the magnetic starts to improve you can get a brand new like an A and then underneath it it's almost like the rectangle formation this could become an A then a B and a C and a D and if it starts to close over the 200-period moving average this can go to a leg D over a couple of weeks maybe a month it can finally go to a peak D at 68.1 let me just see if that's right yeah 68.22 if it's this week that's fantastic but my thinking is it's more later on the earnings is not this week anyway so that's what I'm looking at now because of this Eiffel Tower straight up straight down pattern I also have to add that if it closes underneath last week's low of 60 no 59 I think 59 yeah 8.90 if it closes under they be prepared that this low can be tested so this is a very important moment it's a pattern that usually happens off a low going to a high you have to look at the bigger picture the bigger picture says there's a pattern with this particular stock look at these big red ugly candles this is almost like a biotech it just it has these something comes out of the blue whoosh the thing drops in this case 75s to the to under 60 and then another time it goes from 75s to 62 so you got to be really careful with this stock so I would just say that if you were in it if it was me I would have a very tight stop on this stock but I am saying the pattern says another move to the upside today's up 67 cents 6245 PY PL is a symbol it needs to get very quickly to the 64 70 200 period exponential moving average that was a lot of talking for just a tiny bit of that next question came in I am looking here okay so I want you to do this XLF I was asked over the weekend if I would get it just to have a chance to look at the financials so look the XLF down 8 cents right now this is 38.58 this could be a select financial spider fund well have a look at this another instance where I am giving it an alternate count but the taterials are actually down good 93% in the stochastic daily magnies positive 9s over the 14 on balance fund is a little bit overboard and look at that weekly chart in leg F in the weekly chart so I don't see anything wrong in this and why I wanted to mention that is just for the moment I am going to give you KRE as well this is the regional banking index okay it's not as good as the XLF so the money center banks are doing much better than the regionals I want the regionals at 52 64 in February which week it is some week in February I want to see a trading in the 56 to 57 area which is at 53 it made a peak E and this is with an overlapping wave so the C says it should go to a D this particular C should go to a D in the weekly chart but the daily chart is just stalling so what I was going to say is within the XLF I wanted to just talk about a particular pattern and that pattern said it's a slow run from the 770 January 22 high at peak E with a two bar candle reversal to the 29 59 now this as an ETF that the year and a half two year consolidation that we've had is almost it's exactly two years now it's in January right this is really very good action when 17.49 was the March low and 41.70 was the high to have pulled back to the say $30 level 10 that's called it about 18% 20% that's one of the better ETFs so I like the fact and it's really important to me that the XLF is rallying and it says the way it's rallying says that the key support level is at 38.57 will be 36.80 the SAR should trade under 36.50 and then it's in February it says we're having a digester phase back in the moment down 22 down TFNN has just launched their new 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China 8 P.E. is just like in many countries around the world just won't find that kind of P.E. yeah but you know P.E.s can stay low for quite a while that's just the way P.E.s work but I am thinking last week I think that I'm looking at China only when we start the next big phase to the upside as I'm looking at it will China start to repair the damage so that could be just a little while longer you have to wait maybe I'm wrong the other thing was lucid just be real careful I mean that's not a chart that even there's a pop today it could be anything it looks like a biotech yeah anyway not the recent biotechs have been great let me just do this real quickly I'm concerned there's topping action going on right now that doesn't mean to say that there's enough internal strength it can't make slightly higher highs I think maybe just slightly higher but I would not be surprised if as we're going into the end of this week the beginning of next week we can see some kind of consolidation beginning and I'm starting to see that and those round numbers I can't dismiss them they don't just happen from nothing