 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good to be here everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly update show. Everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good day of trading. If you are branding to the channel, guys, thank you very much for tuning in. If you can be so kind, take a moment, literally a second to like the video, share or subscribe or any combinations of both and take a load off and kind of sit back, relax, kind of give my little interpretation. What I think the market is telling us and how do we proceed from there? So I want to start out. You guys remember, maybe mostly you guys do and some of you guys will, those 80s and like 90s and early 2000, like those teenage, teenage corning movies, right? Where the nerd gets the like gets the hot girl that never happens, right? Never happens. And one of the advice all the nerds friends always tell them is, look, if you ignore the hot girl, don't worry about it. Eventually she'll come to you. We all know, damn no, all the guys out there, all the fellows out there, we all know. If you're ignoring anybody, nobody's coming to you, right? So today was a scenario that the hot girl that used to be really, really smoking hot, well, she forgot she was hot for a while. And that girl's name was Tesla. And we've been watching, you know, we've been watching this thing for two weeks. And I'm like, yo, one of this thing, you know, it's either going to confirm to the upside or going to confirm to the downside. Let her come to us. Let the cool girl, let the hot girl come to us. We'll wait because we're the cool guy. Let the girl come to us. And every single day for the last two weeks, I've been pretty much disappointed. Just when you think the stock is about to break out, it comes back in. Just when you think the stock is about to break down, it starts to rally. This is why we play the game. We'll get to Tesla in a second. Other than that, you know, NASDAQ took a little bit of a breath, right? Took a little bit of a break today down, you know, four tenths of a percent. The Dow down 100 points or 0.25%. And S&P was down six handles, nothing. The key which continuously happening in this market is the rise of the semiconductors. SMCI after being included in the S&P 500 on Friday afternoon. At one point, this thing was up like 250 bucks. NVIDIA or NVIDIA or NVIDIA, however you decide to call it. At one point, this thing was up like 60, 70 points. Like everything was going nuts. And slowly but surely the market started to lose a little bit of juice. Doesn't mean anything. Doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to implode. And I'm going to have a video tomorrow night and say, I told you so. This year four year will never last. So did you listen? No, that's not me. That's not exactly what we're talking about here. But it is something to note, right? It is something to keep an eye on. And the reason why I say that is this. Guys, look at the leaders from the former X amount of years bull markets, right? What are these stocks have in common? You have Apple, you have Google, and you have Tesla, right? One, you know, we can we can sit here and really dissect what exactly is happening. You could make a case here. Well, the old leaders are not really important anymore. Because if you guys remember during 99 2000, the leaders were Cisco, Oracle, right? Intel, right? Oracle, Intel, Cisco. What was the last time you traded Oracle? Maybe it is. Maybe you did. Maybe you didn't. But what was the last time you said, wow, I have to stick around and cancel all my plans because Intel is coming out earnings. And hey, again, Intel had a great run just like everything else. But these were the old leaders. So when the internet came and you started seeing the Amazons and the Yahoo's of the world and the LinkedIn's of the world and the Google's of the world, you turn around and say, well, see, these are the new leaders who cares about Intel, who cares about Oracle, right? Who cares about Cisco? And again, you can make a case right now that is happening, right? Like who cares about Google anymore, right? Who cares about Tesla? Who cares about Apple? Now it's all about NVIDIA. It's all about AMD. It's all about SMCI. Does everything else really matter? Yeah, it kind of does because the difference between the difference between what was happening back then and what is happening now, it's kind of like the bubble effect. I don't use the word bubble. Let's let's delete bubble. Remove that from your database. It's kind of the euphoric effect because we have the new toy of AI and these companies are obviously participating in this whole AI revolution. Some are participating in the Bitcoin revolution. Some of them are participating in the combination of both. People are still on the euphoric, like the euphoric carpet ride. And that's great. When I said in a video over the weekend, eventually all this is going to end. I give you my word, whether it's tomorrow, a year from now, hopefully a year from now, two years from now or 30 minutes from now, eventually it will end. And eventually everything that you've worked for that you sat there and you had euphoria and visions of sugar plums dancing your head, you're going to lose two, three, four, six months worth of profits in two, three days. It happens all the time. It happened to me when the .com market finally crashed. It happened to so many people because that's exactly what happens. Euphoria is gone and then you have the reality that the technical analysis takes over. Will that happen? Won't that happen? That's up to speculation. I'm not going to speculate. I'm not going to guess. I'm not going to try to figure things out. However, the market does give us a little bit of clues. So if we have Apple and we have Google and these stocks are a good amount of weight and the Nasdaq 100, the question going into tomorrow's session is, and it's a very, very oddest question. Well, can the market consistently remove all the stocks that are not participating and continue to push higher? So for example, NVIDIA today all day, all day, $900 weekly calls. And we joke around all the time. We say, just put it at 900 and start from there, right? Massive call buying all day. Is it going to get to 900? Is it not going to get to 900? I don't think at this point it matters. But again, it really shows you that once retail is behind the wheel of a car that doesn't have any brakes, it doesn't make a difference. Just go straight. And that's the question. Can Apple, Google, and Tesla start putting some heavy pressure? Because again, they are good size weight on the Nasdaq 100. Or is the market going to continue to remove the stocks that are former leaders or at least former leaders for right now and continue to move higher? That's an open-ended question. It's a rhetorical question. We can't answer that. But this is why we always talk about every single day, be prepared on both sides. So for example, if AMD broke out right here, well, why are you buying the stock today? Right? If AMD broke out last week and AMD was a great trade. If AMD broke out above the 185, January 25th highs, well, why are you buying the stock at 210? If NVIDIA broke out above 505 and then Consolidated broke out above 628 and Consolidated broke out above 721 and Consolidated, well, why are you buying the stock at 876? Your answer to that question can't possibly be because I think it's going higher. Really? Now we're going to think. Right? Now we're going to predict. Now we're going to guess. So in a market like this that is very, very euphoric, it's easy to believe your own bullshit. And I say that, of course, in the nicest way. It's easy to put on the rose-colored glasses and say, don't worry. I'm the Teflon Don of trading. Nothing is going to happen to me. I'm long the video. I'm long SMCI. I'm long AMD. Look how strong they are. They will continue. All 100% go higher. And they might. And they absolutely might. But the point is, and this is a very, very important part, especially when I'm trading, when a stock breaks out, there's only one level for the breakout. The day two is called continuation. That's a very, very premium hand to play. Once you get to day three, day four, day five, and the stock continues to go higher and higher and higher and further away to the national breakout, there's a higher probability. If you did not buy it on the breakout price, there's a higher probability you're going to get pulled. Whether that happens or not, we don't know. Like I say in every single video, don't you need to be preparing on both sides of the market? Now, for anybody who's starting around, say, well, what's the point? Just buy the dip, bro. Buy the dip. Well, let's get back to that hot girl. Right? Let's get back to the hot girl for a second. And let's call her Tesla, for example, right? So the hot girl today, and it had all those calls, and then you see all on social media, bull flag, bull flag, bull flag, bullshit. What the hell is a bull flag? And so a stock gets above a channel. It's nothing. Right? It's a distribution site. Well, until a stock gets out of a channel where it's to the upside to the downside, all it is is a setup. And this is something we've been watching for two, three weeks. Absolutely discouraging that it wouldn't participate. Absolutely discouraging that it wouldn't go down. We just sat there and sat there and sat there. And then final, when we ignored the hot girl, we talked about it today at Morning Strategy. And I said, ah, we might as well talk about Tesla as well. I wanted to ignore it. I wanted to put it out to the market guys. We didn't care about it today. Yeah, I also had my fingers crossed. So let's talk about Tesla, right? So these were the channels, right? These were the channels going into today. Hell, these were the channels going into by the last three weeks. Right? So you had 20560 to the upside. I said, let me know if this sounds familiar. I have literally been putting the same two pivots literally every single day for the last couple of weeks. So 205 to the upside, 198 to the downside, it held three times. Look at Tesla, right? It held three times, excuse me, four times. You see these four candles? 198 to the low, 198 to the low, 198 to the low, 198 to the low, right? It held four times, including the pre-market lows. And today they came out with China data, I guess lower deliveries, whatever the case may be. Let's see if this thing finally confirms. It finally confirms. And you know what? We finally got the hot girl. And this was an absolutely phenomenal move. I'm still holding some overnight. The stock got below this whole channel. Look how long the distribution was. Congratulations for all you guys who caught this trade who are still holding it overnight. They started pounding this thing. Absolutely pounding this thing with weekly 185s, 18250s, 180 puts. Awesome. April 170s come in. If we can just confirm, right? If we can confirm today's channels, then we can get, you know, we have a measure potential here to 180, which is the lower Bollinger Band. And then if everything really, really goes our way, then you have the February 175 lows. So let's see what happens tomorrow on Tesla. But so far today, this is the first close, finally below this whole nagging, God-forsaking trend distribution area. And this is the lowest close in this whole formation. Let's see if we can confirm today's channel tomorrow and see it move all the way down to 180, right? Let's see. Let's see what happens there. What else? What else? What else? What else? There wasn't a lot today. There wasn't a lot. Again, I wasn't looking for, I wasn't looking to trade in Nvidia today. I wasn't looking to trade AMD today, especially SMCI today. I was really fixated on a couple of things. We talked about Microsoft. Well, PLTR, I liked, never confirmed 2570. Microsoft, you know, it gave us a trade. I think that's the best way of saying it. It gave us a trade. It took out this, we talked about it on the weekend update. It took out this 15, 415, 80, 16 level. It traded to like 17 and change. And then it just basically just sat there in the 15s, 16s, 15s, 16s, pretty much the whole day. And once I started seeing futures getting a little heavier, I said, no, what? Let's kick this out of the 16s. You know, it took a little bit of money off the table, got rid of the trade and the stock sold off just like everything else towards the end of the day. But again, it was just taking too long to really get going. But again, some cash flow is better than no cash flow. MCHP, I still like. I go, you know, I still like this thing. 87, 85, 88 trades a little bit thinner than AMD and NVIDIA. Let's use the first remount instead of strength. I never broke out. That's the problem. It never broke out. I needed to get above this 88 level. It literally stopped at 87, 96. There was no trade there. I still like this thing. It just needs to get above this 88 level to start really waking up. Let's see if it actually could get there. Meta didn't quite get to that 504-25 level. Beautiful run on Meta for the last couple of days. Took a nice little res day. Again, Tesla is just gold today. Absolutely gold taking. Again, congratulations for you guys who caught it. ARM rejected 147 pre-market needs to build. Here was ARM, not a big move. That was one of the first ones to really start turning around. And again, these are signs, folks. These are signs. If traders stop buying the really high flyers, it took out the 47, traded out to like 48 and a half and then just literally $10 off its highs just like a lot of semis did. Again, something to watch for tomorrow. Disney was good. We still have a partial in Disney. 113 needs to build. 113.70 is the pre-market highs. A dollar pop on Disney. Again, we talked about Disney last night on the video in the weekend update. Highest closings, whole formation. Hopefully, money flow will go into a non-beta stock. And I believe that is it for tomorrow, guys. Keep an eye in case technology continues to be strong. Keep an eye on IBM. IBM had a really, really rock star quarter of big, big move out of supply today. Took out the Bollinger Band here. Let's see if it can confirm today's channel and start attacking the upper Bollinger Band here. Guys, watch the video. I know it's going to go to 900. I know, God bless. It probably does. But let me give you a scenario just in case it doesn't. Just in case it doesn't. So you see this inverted hammer here. You see this inverted hammer here on February the 12th. Look what happened the next day. Look what happened the next day. One down about 30 points. Just in case. Amuse me. I know it's going to go to 900 tomorrow. But amuse me. So here's another inverted hammer. Now what happens if it takes out today's range? Just to be prepared. Again, just as a conversational piece. Because again, we all know stocks don't go straight up except for NVIDIA and SMCI. But just amuse me for a second. Now what happens in this inverted hammer, which is obviously not a good thing. What happens if it loses today's range? Is it possible to give us a trade tomorrow? All the way back to the five-day moving average. To be determined, again, this is why we say we're looking for value every single day. We don't care which side of the market the value comes. Just in case it does kind of gap out and kind of scrams out and exhausts tomorrow. I definitely will be watching you below today's channel. The options market was betting all day today. The stock is going to 900 this week. Maybe both happens, right? Maybe both happens. But again, this is what we talk about. Let's make sure we are prepared on both sides. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a great night. God's help. I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.