 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network I haven't been this excited for a slate of games in the NFL since Probably week one because we got kind of banger after banger on this slate for week 13. We do start things off with Bill's Patriot That's pretty fun. We'll be talking about that in full for today here on the show But then Titans Eagles dolphins 49ers chiefs bangles a lot of really fun games in the slate We're gonna break down those with Ryan Williams get his read on them by betting perspective and Lay out other bets we like across week 13 over at Fandall Sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Sonos I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as mentioned by Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan happy week 13 to you. Happy blessed week based on the slate. We got here. How you doing? Yeah, bless week indeed Jim. I'm happy to be here. We're doing well. We're doing well We're excited to get after it with week 13 cannot believe where the season has gone that we've been talking about it being week 13 December rolled around already It's it's just absolutely insane. So but this is the time of year that we love so let's get into it Jim Yeah, Chris Christmas decorations are up You know ready ready to have the Christmas lights on on Sunday while Scott hands is yelling at me for whatever reason I know it's gonna be it's gonna be a good week and we're gonna break down not just those big games But also a different kind of fun high totals are back for this week We'll talk about that and more to get you set for week 13 in just one second at first a reminder If you have not already, please make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread whether it be on the Fandall YouTube page or Over on the covering of the spread podcast be wherever you get your podcast to get these as they go live each and Every weekday cuz you know short shelf lives We want to make sure you're getting the best numbers Because stuff can move after we discuss it So do you want to get that right as it is posted make sure you are subscribed or follow the podcast wherever you get your podcasts And if you like what you hear as well leave us a rating and review the 2022 NFL regular season has been jam-packed with excitement and this Sunday will be no different Thanks to Fandall and direct TVs plan to give you more ways to win Introducing the direct TV Sunday night showdown a daily fantasy football contest on Fandall awarding $10,000 in cash prizes based around the most exciting part of the week Sunday night football Here's how it works Just build your best five player roster while staying under the salary cap and follow along It's a game unfolds using Fandall's live scoring feature earn points for each stat Your players accumulate and watch as you climb as your lineup climbs up the leaderboard The higher at the leaderboard your line of finishes the larger share of $10,000 you'll win It is that simple the contest set to go live on Thursday night So check out fandall.com slash league slash direct TV dash SNF and make sure to submit your picks your liners before Sunday night That's fandall.com slash league slash direct TV dash SNF to get yourself entered eligibility restrictions apply Let's focus now in week number 13 and right as I mentioned some high totals here We'll talk about the cheese Bengals specifically later on. We also have Jags lions. I'm pumped about that one That's gonna be hopefully pretty fun. We've got a Chargers versus Raiders and pretty high totals on the board once again And this year's been low scoring. So when you see these high totals What's your level of confidence in those games given how parched we've been for scoring this year? Yeah, I mean we'll look at where the high totals are coming from and where these explosive teams are Jim I mean we're talking about, you know dolphins 49ers Chargers Raiders The the Lions and Jaguars as you mentioned All being over the 46th kind of threshold that we would look at there for overs and in chiefs Bengals How do I bury the lead? So, yeah, these are where we can see points coming from I always like to go overs when we get to this point in time Once the you know the buys are starting to wrap up and you know You start to see these rookies and kind of things play out where our teams in the playoff hunt What do they need to do? Are we gambling a little bit more on fourth down and things of that nature because the state of the state of the Slate starts to dictate that like as we just get closer to the season and especially even when we get on to week 17 and and beyond with the backups playing and things that nature like it just Lends itself to be more of high totals and also with these teams who are deciding You know, okay, we don't want to see you know We thought we didn't want to see Elijah more and then all of a sudden Elijah more is coming out and popping off like these are The type of things that can lend themselves to having more scoring because Vegas isn't you know They don't really have a they have a good enough read But I don't feel like they have as good of a read as it is to know what these teams are Going to be doing with their depth chart So that's really what I like to and then you just look at things like the Seahawks Rams for example that opened at 42 and a half It's now sitting at 41 But like we've seen even though that there's no Matt Stafford That the Seahawks defense has just been willing to give up points to whoever they're facing and like are there still enough? You know Sean McVeigh's still coaching this team. They're still pieces there We saw that they can you know put up enough points to like make it interesting last week against Kansas City You know, I think those things lend merit to me wanting to bet over as it gets to this point in the season Yeah, I think with these games specifically I did take the over on Bengals cheese back on Sunday when it was 51 It's 52 and a half now. So it's gone up But the I want to just like my checklist I think is is important and it is gonna be a case-by-case basis as a result because The reason you get low totals reason you get low scoring is a lot of factors one of them being wins You look at the Bengals cheese game win speeds around like four miles per hour this week. That's pretty sick That's held steady since Sunday. I did pull up dark sky on Sunday, which was upsetting to me But you know, I checked before I bet it just to make sure still around four miles per hour there The Lions game is indoors the Chargers game is indoors Effectively there is some Possibility but there's effectively no wind at so far. So I'm actually I think they're in Vegas this weekend either way They're not dealing with wind not doing with elements for those games That's a key thing for me this time of year is are there elements for those games specifically? No Are there bad quarterback play in those games? I don't think any of the six quarterbacks are I would classify as being bad like you can make jokes about Jerry golf But he's been efficient so you've got good quarterback play you've got no wins and You know, we've seen a track record of these teams producing points and giving up points with their defenses So I had to go through a checklist still, you know And like the thing is I think it just kind of coincidence that all the teams that check those boxes Happen to be playing on this week 13 to get each other effectively, right? Exactly, and we want to be able to take advantage of that as well, too. Yeah, absolutely So let's start things off here and talk about one of these fun games I think this game outside of cheese Bengals is my favorite this week That is the Titans of the Eagles because it's too kind of like tough nose teams like they're they're bullies Both these teams are both these teams awesome at the line of scrimmage Eagles are four and a half point favorites That's down from five and a half yesterday total is forty four and a half And I think part of the reason we've seen this number shortening is because the Eagles offense is sputtered a bit ever since Dallas Goddard's injury. So Does that open a window for the Titans to cover here or what's your read on this game? Yeah, I mean it's interesting that it's moved to full point, right already like five and a half to four and a half It is it's kind of you know a crazy bet and you're looking at it because the public is absolutely in love with the Titans in the spot And we talk a lot about Mike Vrable and what he means to this team when they are underdogs how he's able to coach them up But I do think I Think it's tough when you when for me, it's this spot is Philly It's the Philly four and a half if it's moving in this number I liked him at five and a half and here's why Jim because we know what this offense can do when they are poised to Needing to throw right and getting away from the run like they've had a couple matchups where they've said okay Like we can just let Miles Sanders get going and Jaylin can do his thing on the ground and yet like AJ Brown Devonta Smith We haven't needed you in Dallas Goddard's absence now if on the other side this defense has been struggling Derek Henry's able to get it going then I like Jaylin hurts his chance to have the propensity to be able to throw the rock Against the secondary and this is a secondary that we had been attacking earlier on this season So when these two things come to fruition that haven't happened in a while This is when I want to get ahead of it because I can easily see the Eagles like hold holding face at home coming out here being like Hey, we need to show out the NFC's week. We're controlling our destiny here and let's ride in the Titans I just don't feel like have the firepower that can match if we're getting full throttle Philly So that's where I lean here where it's like if they can you know get this front seven going and hold up Derek Henry like where are the points coming from on the Titans if the Eagles get you know to 24 Like they you know and then once that happens like at what point in the game or the Eagles just going full throttle Fly Eagles fly and letting that thing ride and that's why I like the four and a half here I think it should be more closer to six. I'm surprised it moves so heavily favored in the other way Yeah, look at this one Four and a half is right between what my two models say my traditional one says three point nine nine for the Eagles and my new one Says five point one seven that newer model hates the Titans defense relative to perception It is much lower on them because they have feasted on third downs late down Success rate. They're very good because they create chaos They put you in bad spots and then they they can obliterate you I think the reason I am okay Skewing towards the other model the one that says it's about a four-point game is that I Feel like the Eagles are sorry the skewing towards the one that says Eagles by five point one seven is because I Feel like the Eagles might be able to successfully avoid third down here because they're pretty good in early downs Now Jalen Hertz has struggled the past couple of weeks. That's a bit concerning the passing offense has had It's three worse games relative to expectation have all come the past three weeks But now they've had more time to pair it that Dallas Goddard Hopefully their offense is better acclimated for playing without him You do see that sometimes like the Bengals first game without Jamar Chase. They got slaughtered and then suddenly oh my gosh They're like a superpower all again. So I feel like for me. It's a stay away pretty easily But if I had if I had to lean towards one I'd probably say the the the model that's higher on the Eagles is probably better But honestly, it's a stay away from me and I'm okay Just enjoying this game because it's gonna be I think a pretty fun one to watch Absolutely can't wait for it similar thing can be said about the Dolphins at the 49ers 49ers three and a half point favorites here total is 46 and a half and I Did take the Dolphins money line on Monday Tuesday Monday Monday Tuesday anyway, one of those days I took I don't they all bleed together at this point and Part of the reason I don't love that bet I was hesitant to bet it was because the the Dolphins might be without both starting tackles in this game It sounds like Taren Armstead has a shot to play this week I'm not sure if that's Mike McDaniel blow and smoke out in the air just to try to throw off the scent I did bet the Dolphins though because this offense has been very good Even once you adjust for the very easy schedule they face. They've been a top-two offense in football so far 49ers I'm skeptical of them now Christian McCaffrey is banged up Eli Mitchell won't play this game Debo Samuel not a full health. I Don't feel great about the fact that I bet the Dolphins here Ryan, but I want to get your read What is your what are your thoughts in this game given that both sides are dealing with pretty impactful entries? Yeah, as you talk about being a stay away for you in the previous game of Eagles Titans I feel like this is stay away from me and it's that look it's like You know that hook can always change your mindset like do I make this better or not? And if it was three 49ers at home, I feel like I'd be much more comfortable saying like yeah In a close game like they could just eke out a field goal at the end and let it be what it is And let's ride and and potentially, you know, just let it be a push I guess but The three and a half doesn't does make me concerned just because of all the injuries that are just happening in this game in general And it's like I just never feel comfortable in trusting Jimmy G and Kyle Shanahan as home favorites when you think that they should Be you know taking care of business. I will say that at this this juncture it sits at 46 and a half on the total and For whatever reason this this game to me is just screaming take the under because if the if the dolphins really can't get going like It's possession game for the 49ers do not Do not let Tyree kill beat us with him from when he was at the Chiefs like To you know eke out the wind and I feel like again We're talking about in the NFC and especially in the AFC to like this game is gonna mean a lot to both of these teams Like do those emotions ride high and where we're just seeing kind of some drives kind of peter out and it not really being successful That game does not bode well for the dolphins it bodes more well for the 49ers But again, that's why it's a stay away because the dolphins can put a game out of reach at any Juncture, but the offensive line issues. I do want to see more about that before I can even think about taking the plus three and a half of them Yeah, this this spread is super interesting to me because fandals been off-market all week It's been for most places the entire week now It is, you know, three and a half minus 104 at fandal versus plus four minus 110 in most spots So it's not a huge difference But they have been off-market the only place giving you three and a half for this entire time Moneyline has been pretty consistent for the most part over at fandal dig We go to 166 briefly, but they're pretty in line of market there 172 at fandal Versa you got some 160s and some other spots potentially 175 in one spot though as well So it's interesting that fandals kind of a bit deviating from market on this game And I'm not sure if that means like oh, they're they're confident in the dolphins and that can make me feel better about my bet Maybe or what but I do find it interesting. I think this game Like I kind of wish I hadn't bet it because I do want to I wish this were one I could just enjoy as opposed to it But I do think that it's I've been lower on the 49ers for a bit now I bet against them in the Cardinals game. That didn't go well bet against them in the Chargers game They did cover there They tried not to that they did cover there did not bite in the Saints one despite my number showing value So I feel like we got a little bit high in the 49ers and that does translate to this one too So we'll see if the the dolphins can overcome those offensive line injuries given that This is a very good defensive line that could make them pay for that stuff But it's also important or the 49ers said their own injuries to you So yes, I don't feel great about the bet, but I don't regret placing it I think is the way I would say it when sometimes there will be times where you regret placing it bet I do not regret spitting me over for cheese at bangles The cheese are two and a half point favorites total is 52 and a half got that a 51 So I probably wouldn't take it now, but maybe you've a different read on that We'll see but the bangles won both these matchups last year against the cheese and they're playing really good football right now So can the bangles pull off another upset here Ryan? You know what I always say if Patrick Mahomes is three or less as a favorite with him and Andy Reed and yeah, they're on the road here But any time we can get Patrick Mahomes at that I mean I've seen it in some places It's two two and a half to it's I just have to do that And you know you do like this game in general just because Dramar Chase is coming back at Cincinnati like we will see full Health on their side. Obviously, there's injuries that are going on with the Chiefs as far as there's no Tyree kill this year and Cadarius Tony is her what is Juju Smith gonna play but if Kelsey's out there, that's that's all Patrick Mahomes needs I we've shown that and this guy is just magical They've had this game circle on their calendar You can't convince me otherwise like those two, you know losing the regular season losing the playoffs there In in gut-wrenching fashion because you come out in our boat racing this team in the first half And then all of a sudden the ghost the Joe Burrow comes out and in the second half But uh, but no, I think the way that the Chiefs defense to is kind of playing and really pumped up for this game You know that breed was throwing shade at T Higgins already, you know not being able to say his name And it's just gonna be a fun one and it just in this sense of we're talking about three points or less I'm gonna ride with the team that has shown me the Prince to do this with Petra Mahomes Also, we got to talk about Petra Mahomes is is undefeated when it comes to November and December games Which is absolutely incredible. I can't believe the streak is still going one of the more Accomplished beats. I think and all the NFL as it currently stands. So I'm riding with the boy Mahomes on this T Higgins is not someone I want to make angry I know he's not like he's not the most like physically frightening guy, but like he's He's good. I don't want to I don't want to take him off So I might shy away from that 180. This is another one where my models disagree The traditional model as a chief spy 2.97 that one I think it's more subject to like late-down flukiness and the chiefs have been Unreal on third and fourth down this year So I'd actually skew more towards my my newer model which has the chiefs by 0.48 Which means a very very close game and would imply some value on the Bengals So that's why I've not bet either side here because I've got models agreement Let me back testing both these models the rest of the way to see which one back test better to see Which one I'll go with for next year's little dueling of the models to go Going on the rest of the way, but they disagree here So I'm just gonna stay away. I'll take my over and hopefully root for some points, but I think that it is tough to Not be on the chiefs here because they are unreal on late down that does matter. That's not a fluke That's a skill maybe the to the extent which they've been good could be a bit fluky But it's so tough to be low on them But I want to get your overall thoughts in the Bengals because they've been good recently Do you feel like that is a sustainable uptick for them? Or could it just be you know had some good spots had some good games? Are you buying the Bengals broadly beyond this cheese game? Yeah, I mean To a certain extent yes, I mean they've been a roller coaster all season long like when you're talking about Okay, you're able to beat the dolphins and you're able to you know, you beat the Titans last week And you know, you're able to show us some things with the Saints on the road back when the Saints were you know Still in the mix of things, but you know, how are you you lost to the Ravens early on this season yet got embarrassed by the Browns on Halloween like what are we talking about here and then You know barely beating the Steelers by by that touchdown and that had to come late So, you know, it's it's tough to trust them I will say though that we did talk weeks ago about having faith in this team because you know quarterback driven league and Joe Burrow and just what this what Cincinnati did last year down the stretch and so Okay, you got the chiefs here got the rematch against the Browns You got fucking years then you got Patriots like show us what you got like this is this is the time for them to kind of show everybody That they belong but I think like the AFC North is pretty much theirs For the taking I mean the Ravens have just really hurt themselves in late games And they've been dealing with injury bug for the past, you know Two three years it feels like and so with the bingles getting healthy and just looking at their schedule Like if you want to people to believe in you like now It's the time to start putting that up and I think that any type if you have you know If you really have a lean on the bingles taking the chiefs this week I would encourage people to like look at all of their future bets on the fandom sports book because this is probably the best value You're gonna get on this team all year. Yeah, the reason they're plus 210 the AFC North right now Is because of their schedule like they're facing the chiefs like that's That's a toss up and the Ravens are eight and a half way favorites against the the Broncos Huge discrepancy there if you think either the Ravens lose this week or the Bengals win that's gonna flip things pretty dramatically It is pretty tough at the Bengals after that too, but like I think with the way they're playing and I do I think I put I believe in them because they've changed some things schematically They had some like pretty key tendencies based on like whether they were in shotgun or under center That would kind of tell the defense. Hey, we're running here. Hey, we're throwing here They've erased those just by just being a shotgun team now, so I think I have more faith in them and I don't mind the AFC North bet at plus 210 I do think that maybe it could be a situation where I hold off after this week Let the Ravens obliterate the Broncos that's probably it's gonna happen because what if that's what the Broncos do And then see what happens after that so I might I have interest there again I know we talked about the Bengals when the AFC North a long time ago. I still think that's live Despite their schedule, but we'll see what goes down for this week. Let's open things up Ryan As I said a lot of games on the board of this week. Where else to see in value a Fandals sports book for each 13 Oh, man, let's go back to my board here. You have me looking I was gonna look up what Joe Burroughs MVP odds were Oh, I do think that that's interesting. Let me check my homes is is really Had been riding that ship and Burroughs 15 to 1 15 to 1 I mean he wins this game. That's a that's a narrative flipper right there Like yeah, I mean if they control their destiny like you're beat you know beat the Patriots He's playing really well. Yeah, it's not chase back now It's still I feel like it's still open because I don't think that people are really invested in Giving it to the Philly quarterback in jail in her. It's like it's Patrick Mahomes to lose But if he does lose to Joe Burrough this week and if they you know struggle again And bingles are just kind of winning out like people love this team. They love Joe Burrough And so if we can get value there 15 to 1, I do like that. Um, where else where else am I seeing about you here? Let's see where's my card here? So I think the I think the first game that I wanted to talk about was just Packers Bears Just because of what the narratives are around this team And obviously it's I don't think we can feel comfortable in embedding it just yet without knowing officially who the quarterbacks are Who are playing and knowing the Bears like we just change Bears just changed this up ten minutes before kickoff and actually through kickoff Like is it Nathan Peterman or is it same? Yeah. Oh, no, it's Justin Fields But I do like getting the Bears here points at home I mean, I think that this is really the Bears Super Bowl of the year Especially if Justin Fields is playing that shows that they really want to win this game and like take advantage of, you know Rogers on a downswing So I think that that does have some interesting where you can get the fives actually on Fandall sportsbook We got it at five and a half. So I do I do think there's merit in taking that there lions getting Getting a point some places but on Fandall sportsbook. They're actually favored by one Still love that. I mean, I think that, you know, the Lions have shown me For one, they're playing for I think Dan Campbell's like, you know Not on the hot seat anymore the way that they played against the bills on Thanksgiving But just the way this team has been playing in general I just feel like you know, the Jaguar's got to show me a little bit more Than late game hero except the end of the game to beat the Ravens to merit being favored in any spot And then I will just say and I don't want to get into The whole nature of this game but Houston Moneyline is live for me this week Okay, Houston Moneyline is live for me this week that place is gonna be rocking an entire team having a revenge game is a new Dynamic for sure. Absolutely. Yeah, that's plus 270 right now Fandall sportsbook the Texans Moneyline the Lions one like you said depends on where you're at I saw the Fandall move to being a toss up on the Moneyline minus one away both sides and so I opened up You know, my My book here in Rhode Island uses Caesar's odds and they do still have the Lions plus one there So, you know shop around Check Moneyline versus bread and stuff like that try to decide the Yazz of a tie It's that or it's that or go through that whole process and look we're we're seeing this nowhere My models disagree because I did have value in the Lions earlier on this week Now it's showing value on the Jaguars because things move so much So that's a fun game to diagnose for sure I want to ask you about the Lions because I'm thinking about them this week and They're gonna be adding a Quarterback to James and Williams Monras a brown. I think that's gonna be a lot of fun So we'll talk about the Lions eventually it's gonna be a lot of fun there for sure That is Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan I appreciate the time as always a good luck to you in week 13. We'll talk to you once again next week Yeah, it's fun as always Jim can't wait to get after it with you again next week and good luck to everybody on this week 13 bets all righty check out Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis again Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast or over on the Fandall YouTube page back tomorrow with props And some more World Cup talk we'll talk to you that this has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network