 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have gotten to the part of the NFL calendar where some teams gearing up for a playoff run and some teams gearing up for the NFL Draft already and it's been an odd couple of days with a Raiders linebacker retiring after selling his Pokemon cards We've had Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow practicing Wednesday on IR Thursday. It's been a weird week We're gonna break down what that means for betting player props with a JJ Zachary's of late round calm getting his read all the player Prob market for this week for week number 10 This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by JJ Zachary's and check him out on Twitter at late round QB his work is at late round calm in the late round Fantasy football podcast and JJ any Pokemon cards you've sold yet Or is your being here an indication that those don't exist? I wish that I had my Pokemon cards from when I was growing up and it's also wild that like Pokemon is still a thing Like I'm I'm I'm firmly a millennial like in terms of my age Like firmly like right in the middle of being a millennial and I collected Pokemon cards I played Pokemon growing up and it's still going on like my daughter is going to be playing Pokemon too It's just wild that that thing is just stuck around but I wish I still had my cards because I'm sure that I could Could at least buy a bigger house. Maybe sure. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, Blake Martinez linebacker for the Raiders He played 91% of the snaps in week nine sold the Pokemon card for like $700,000 on Tuesday and retired on Thursday like that is king stuff Like I I have like an Aaron Rodgers rookie a couple Aaron Roger rookie cards, but they're worth less than a thousand So and also Pokemon cards were banned at my school in the entry school Yes, Tim because like there were too many kids like getting like losing a lot of money Basically and their parents got mad. So I had one that I found in a book That is the only Pokemon card I've ever possessed because they were which one it was no no idea I lost it immediately. Probably a weedle. You probably had a weedle. I don't know what that is I'm gonna assume you're probably correct though But missed opportunities and that's why we're here talking about player props week number 10 We'll break it all down and let you know where JJ is seeing value for this weekend Just one second a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We have our NFL week 10 spreads money lines and totals podcast up with Ryan Williams and also our college football week 11 Podcasts with Ed Fang we also talk some World Cup with Ed on Wednesday as well So get all those on the covering the spread of podcast feed wherever you get your podcast the week 10 NFL Sunday million on the DFS side is Officially live on Fandals showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine a player roster while staying under the salary cap Then follow along using a Fandals live scoring feature to compete for your share of 1.4 million dollars in cash prizes including $250,000 first place the entry fee there just five dollars the lock for that is on Sunday at 1 p.m. Eastern So get your lineups in that's approaching quickly at the fandal.com and submit your labs today eligibility restrictions apply go to fandal.com or download the fandal app for more details Let's take a look now week number 10 And I think the key thing that's in the ultimate JJ is the wonkiness in this Raiders Colts game because it kind of seems like both teams Might be tanking don't really know it's kind of weird We have these guys for setting like Hunter Renfro We got Darren Waller now out as well The Colts had the same Ellinger situation not sure on Jonathan Taylor Motivation is is questionable. I would say for both sides based on what they've been doing recently So it does open up volume But do you worry about the team's ability to move the football when they're suddenly missing impactful players for whatever reason that may be Yeah, I mean, it's definitely concerned like if you're missing good players, you know, I think that this is one of the big battles and arguments and discussions that we've had in the fantasy football space for years now where you know if a player leaves an offense is That necessary and he's a good player is that necessarily good for other players in that offense because yes They will see more volume, but that offense then becomes less less efficient. I think overall You should always lead with volume, you know, whether you're talking about fantasy or whether you're talking about player props would have you That's what's more important. You know, I'm gonna talk about one of those scenarios a little bit later But you know, you're going to be focused more on volume should be more focused more on volume above Efficiency within this team because so much affects efficiency. It's not just one wide receiver or especially like a slot guy or something like that It's not just one offensive lineman that can impact things But what I generally do is it just goes back to how I sort of approach projections Which is a top-down approach and if the markets show that these teams aren't going to score as many points And that's going to be reflected in my projections to begin with so let's say that hunter and fro and Darren waller both out Which they are now and the Raiders line doesn't move at all and they still have the exact same team total Well, all of a sudden a guy like Matt Collins who is going to likely see a little bit higher of a target share now Even though he has been a full-time player a guy like Matt Collins is now in the same offense from an efficiency standpoint Because they're gonna score the same number of points hypothetically But now he's just gonna see more work. So now you can bump up Matt Collins So I'm really looking at what the markets are doing there because I do take a top-down approach And the markets, I think do a pretty good job of accounting for this Like they can kind of tell you is this guy a needle mover who is out like with with Jamar Chase, you know Like you're gonna bump a volume for T Higgins and stuff like that But the offense might not be as dependable as it otherwise would be Does this guy move the needle Darren waller has been out for a while hunter Renfro This year has not been playing like a needle mover So I think that it's kind of a case-by-case basis, but trust in the market like you're doing I think is the proper way to lean on the insights of very smart people. We're betting into these markets Yeah, other thing that's important for this week at least for me is Justin Fields We've seen him run a lot more recently and I want to ask you about that because on a broad level How quick are you to adjust a player's projected volume going forward following a spike? Because obviously then situation, you know, we have to make that caveat as always But it could be variance, you know Maybe he's just happened to run the past couple of weeks or it could be a concerted effort by the team To make him more involved that way so from a broad perspective What processes are you going through to decide if it's a tangible shift? Or just variance. Yeah, I mean you have to look and see if there's a reason for these things happening, right? Or if it is just variance and there are some things, you know Instead of looking at pure rush attempts, let's say for Justin Fields You can break down that rush of time number and look at it between scrambles and between Design runs and if you look at what the bears have done not only have the bears been a little bit more past heavy I know I mean, they're still not past heavy. Don't get me wrong I mean still the most run-heavy team that we've seen basically over the last 15 years But they have been more past heavy over the last, you know, three or four weeks or so But the one thing that's really important here is that he averaged eight design runs per game over his last three He's averaged eight design runs that number was three and a half over his first six games So he's basically more than doubled his design runs over the last three games and what have we seen? We've seen a bear's offense. It's much more dynamic We've seen Justin Fields be a lot more not only viable in fantasy football But just more productive in general because they're doing things they're they're formulating this offense around Justin Fields strengths So when you can pinpoint to that thing, you know, you can say, oh, they're actually letting Justin Fields Run because they want him to run not because he's dropping back to pass and getting pressure because the offensive line so bad So he's running, you know, that's the difference here You know his his rush attempts have increased just because there's more design runs But what has increased more is the breakdown and the change in those rush attempts and what those actually look like Which is the design runs. So yeah, I do think when you can pinpoint something tangible like that You know, it's it's no different than like if we see in the Steelers offense, you know Chase Claypool's gone and I'll get to this in a second as well But Chase Claypool's gone and what's what's that gonna look like from a from a target share perspective for a guy like George Pickens. Well, if George Pickens sees an increase in target share With with there's a reason for it because Chase Claypool's gone like there's you can pinpoint that one thing Otherwise, it's a likely noise. There's a lot of variance But I do like when you can tell that story and put that narrative around why the data is saying what it's saying Yeah, you're quantifying intent and I think that's what you're doing with the bear is you're quantifying their desire to make fields more of a Running quarterback more of a threat that way and it's obviously paying dividends So if it weren't working, maybe you're skeptical Maybe you think okay, they could avert back based on this but it's working So I don't think we're gonna see a reversion there, but if you can quantify intent in that way I think that makes it a lot easier to trust Let's talk about now about some fluid situations for this week We got a lot of them that you could pick from so which fluid situations are you turning to to see if you can identify value Once props for those situations are up Yeah, I mean, I think there's a few one of them Briefly I could say is the Tampa Bay backfield where we've seen, you know I think that the narrative though around Tampa Bay backfield is a little bit off because there's a lot of reports That have gone on this week saying over shot white might take over this backfield towards the end of the year After what we saw this past week, you know Leonard for net has been as strong as a runner as Rashad white has this season Which is all factual, but it wasn't last week that really triggered this I mean, we've seen this happening throughout the season I think I've talked about this situation in this in this portion of the show Historically where Rashad white has seen a 40 snap share in this offense This season. I mean last week was actually his fourth highest snap share of the season It wasn't even that much different than what we've seen historically So I do think that in situations like that I try not to lean into the narrative as much and I try to just look at what the data is saying instead But that's at least one of the situations to monitor another one. I just brought up chase Claypool Being gone in the Steelers offense We didn't get to see the Steelers last week because they were on a buy But but Claypool had 17 percent of Pittsburgh's targets this year Which is not insignificant and so, you know, I know a lot of people talk about vacated targets and you know You know, basically fitting You know, if a guy has a raw volume or a raw target total Basically taking that target total and sort of dispersing it around the offense But there's a little bit There's some flaws in doing that because offenses don't run the exact same week over week in terms of plays run pass rate, etc What you really should be doing is looking at target share and there is vacated target It's a very real thing because target share always adds up to 100 percent And so with 17 percent of that gone that gets dispersed throughout the Pittsburgh offense Deontay Johnson probably gets a bump You know pat fryer moot He pat fryer fryer moot does have a tough matchup this week because New Orleans has been very good against tight ends But he likely will get a bump the one guy I'm most intrigued by though Is george pickens who had a 14 percent and a seven and a half percent target share over his last two games So that's not very strong Now he's probably going to see a more significant bump than what you'll see from like a deontay johnson And he's very talented too. So that's one of the situations to definitely look at And then lastly is the chief's backfield. We've talked about the chief's backfield before on the show Um the last two games So so we had that rapid port report that came out that said that isaias pecheco is going to be the starter Right that was in week seven and then they had the buy and then they had week nine and week seven They played san francisco and in week nine they played tennessee you saw last week because it's more recent in our memory You saw last week Tennessee can stop the run really well and kansas city just abandoned the run completely in that game And then they ended up it ended up being a good thing At the end of the day um and then against san francisco. It's another good rush defense. So You know that rap sheet report report wasn't totally totally wrong because number one isaias pecheco did start In that game and he has been starting and then number two we did see a shift in backfield share Uh when you know since that report dropped where over the last two games Clyde onwards a layer has been number three in that backfield in terms of snap shares Uh isaias pecheco is playing ahead of ceh and i'm very very intrigued by pecheco then in this game Because finally they have a matchup where they could run the ball hypothetically You know they're nine point favorites jacksonville definitely can be run on much more than tennessee and san francisco And so i think that you know a lot of people will see what they've done on the ground the last couple of weeks And be like oh it's still a split and it has a split backfield But i don't i i i do think that kansas city hypothetically wants to get the run game going to some degrees So i think pecheco is really really an interesting player to watch out for this week I think everything they've done says they want to run when they can because they are using pretty heavy personnel There's a lot into a grayout even when jody jody fortson was out last week There was still a lot of no a gray out there Um making up like a 40 snap rate last week uh with kelsey Yeah, the first drive as well pecheco played i think nine out of 13 snaps like they wanted to get him involved But realized smartly, um, i'm sure andy reid was delighted to be able to abandon the run They they couldn't run the football so why bother and it just shifted towards mckinnon with a huge snap rate But like i think i agree where if they can use pecheco in that way They probably will and like I think jacksonville can keep this game decently close, but they are nine and a half point favorites in this game I've not bet jacksonville So although i think they can keep it competitive i'm not betting jacksonville plus nine That could be a positive script a positive script in a friendly matchup is not something we've seen yet Since the shift towards pecheco So i think those two factors combining do make him very interesting for this week Let's talk about yardage props. What do you see in there entering week number 10 kind of a wonky week this week? I would say uh across the board of props. I'm not sure if it's because the holiday or something like that But uh pretty limited offerings. What are you seeing as of now though? Yeah, you know, I there was one one that definitely stood out to me was donovan people's jones His line right now is 43 and a half. You can get that over on draft kings I'm sure other books are offering a similar line too. I'm liking the over there The dolphins have faced Your teams that face the dolphins have seen above average pass rates this season Because miami's good and teams will have to throw the ball against them a little bit more They have the fourth worst pass defense by success rate according to number fires metrics People's jones has hit a target share of 20 and four of his last five games And he's actually hit the over this 43 and a half number In every single game since week three So he set up very very well to to hit the over here And it makes a lot of sense too in a game where you know the slate this week is not super super attractive in terms of just general match ups And this one 49 and a half point over under You know, basically these miami games are super fun in terms of of scoring environments So, um, you know, I do think that people's jones makes a ton of sense I mean, I love him in fantasy this week, but I think he makes a lot of sense too In the prop markets Stake one Barclays another one, you know, it's I'm very hesitant to take the over on a line of 92 and a half rushing yards But I think this makes sense logically. Um, it is a very high number You know, you can get this in a lot of markets as well Uh, the Texans have allowed this to happen though in three straight games You had josh jacob's crushed this number, uh, the titans with with malik Crushed this number. I think it was the malik game. Uh, and then uh, myles sanders this past week Got over this number as well. Um, hueson has allowed 104 more Running back rushing yards this season than any other team in football. Um, and sake one's median outcome Has been 82 rushing yards this year You know, I don't want to use average there because it can be skewed by some of his big performances Uh, he his median outcome is an 82 yard rushing performance And so, uh in this matchup where you're facing the best matchup imaginable The giants are at home. They're pretty big favorites in this game 10 extra yards 11 extra yards to get there. I don't think is that uh, crazy to to think so I think sake one makes a lot of sense On the over there, you know, like I said, I am a little hesitant because it is a high number And I hate betting overs on high numbers like this, but it is just a smash spot for sake one Barclay this week Yeah, I was curious about that one too. And um, this is this is a free ad by the way, uh, but betscope They uh, Colin Davey sent out this email yesterday for betscope and they have like this tool where you can plug in a projection It'll show you like the distributions, uh, based on that projection So you can kind of see what the median would be what expectations would be number fire right now is sake one Barclay projected for 96.04 rushing yards. Do you put that into the betscope? Um distribution calculator It would say that fair odds that 92 and a half would be minus 126 So as long as it's under minus 126, that's a good number to get him at. Um, so even though it's a big number There's still value there based on the number fire projections lease, which I trust personally so It's a big number, but I think it's very fair with the dpj one It's also important note that I don't think david and joku's gonna play he said that he will But I think he said that before they're by too and there was no he's just a monster He just he just wants to get out there and get going But yeah, I mean he hasn't practiced at least at the time of this recording He hasn't practiced this week and like if they had the buy he didn't once he didn't practice wednesdays Okay, he's not gonna play Um, so I think the dpj one is one you want to get before injury reports come out friday because I think that will go up Very good role for him in the one game without in joku as you said good yardage upside He gets deep balls He has a 27 deep target share and gains with in joku So taking in joku out of the fold again, that could be a very good thing for a dpj as well So I like both those they're both pretty fun. What about touchdown bets anything standing out to you there right now? Yeah, I mean, you know, you know how I do it on this show I I like to that's crazy crazy darts, but I'm gonna actually one of mine. I'm gonna stick with dpj Right now on bet mgm. You can get him at plus 280 as an anytime touchdown scorer Which I love because this season he hasn't found the end zone And but he has over 400 receiving yards, you know, like I said good matchup Has seen really good target shares in the offense makes a lot of sense to go donovan people's jones way At at back with those kinds of odds and then also on bet mgm another guy another long shot Zay jones is plus 300 over there right now. Um, you know, they're they're uh Um, he's been playing as their number two wide receiver. Uh, he's a 19 target share on the season Uh, but he has just one touchdown this year Despite an expected touchdown number. Uh, that's almost four. So he is a touchdown regression candidate They're facing the chiefs where they should be able to or they should be forced to pass a little bit more And when you get those environments where teams are passing more than they're running, you know Touchdowns generally go that way pass rate does have Some correlation to how teams are scoring touchdowns where there's through the air or on the ground So I think in a past friendly script for this jag's offense. I think zay jones makes sense at plus 300 Yeah, uh with the dpj one he has a 15 target sharing games with in joku. So again taking in joku out should benefit him there Um, zay jones has a 24 red zone share and games. He has played with marvin jones 24 red zone share for a receiver is very good Um, especially for plus 300 odds square touchdown I'm hoping that you're right on both these because we did our dfs show yesterday and both dpj and zay jones were Loves for me in the receiver section. So We can both be very happy if those want a clean definition on sunday. All right. That's all we got here for week number 10 Both of the player props and the traditional markets. It should be an interesting week Kind of a weird one for sure. We'll see how things play out once again Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts We also have all of our previous podcasts up on the fandal youtube page Check those out there and get covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts jj appreciate you as always Good luck to you in week 10. We'll talk to you once again next week. Thanks, jim You can find jj on twitter at late round qb. Check out his work at late round dot com and also check out the late round fantasy football podcast I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s Good luck to all of you and week 10. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network