 launch of the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2022. I'm Jethro Mullen, Editor-in-Chief in the IEA's Communications Team and I'm joined today by IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol and the lead authors of the World Energy Outlook, IEA Chief Energy Modeller Lara Kotzi, Chief Energy Economist Tim Gould and to start today's event Dr Birol will make some opening remarks. Then Ms Kotzi and Mr Gould will present the key findings from the report. We'll then take questions from journalists. For the journalists taking part in this press webinar we invite you to submit your questions via the Q&A function in the Zoom. You can do this at any point during the presentation and we'll also take a two-minute break right after the presentation for you to submit your questions. And with that I'll hand over to our Executive Director Dr Birol. Thank you very much Mr Mullen. Greetings to all the colleagues, all the friends following this webinar. Our flagship publication, World Energy Outlook, comes at a very pivotal time. The global energy system is going through a major turmoil, which I consider to be the first truly global energy crisis. And at the same time our world is entering a period of a major geopolitical upheaval. We all see on a day-to-day basis the negative impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on people, economies, energy markets, and in our world energy outlook we try to look what kind of responses governments, businesses, people can give to this crisis. Our analysis, World Energy Outlook, looks as usual between now and 2050 the global energy system but we focus in this report for the next few years until 2030 to look at the global energy and climate dynamics. My colleagues look at the entire energy system, all fuels, all technologies, energy technologies, the entire geography around the world. And there are many, many interesting findings, charts, numbers you will see in our report which is freely available in our website. So in this report as I said many findings but there are two issues, two questions I ask my colleagues, Mrs. Kozi and Mr. Gut to look into. The first question is the current energy crisis going to slow down or to accelerate clean energy transitions. This is question number one. Question number two is how can we secure resilient energy system in the future? What kind of energy system we have to build in the future which is much more secure, much more resilient, what kind of measures we have to take? So these are the two questions we try to answer in this report. Now starting with the first one some of the members of the press would remember only a few months ago I said this energy crisis could be a turning point in the history of energy by accelerating clean energy transitions. And now looking at the results and the findings of the virtual energy look I can confirm that the numbers here, the analysis here do confirm that the government responses around the world given to this energy crisis promise to be that we are seeing a turning point in the history of energy and this crisis indeed accelerate clean energy transitions. We look at the numbers, this is our job, the data, we are seeing unprecedented increase in different clean energy options. Solar PV, wind, batteries, heat pumps, nuclear power, energy efficiency in all of them. My colleagues feel very soon going to give you the numbers. But dear colleagues, why I am optimistic is we look at the responses coming from governments to this crisis. Inflation Reduction Act from the United States, 400 billion US dollar on the table in terms of tax incentives, subsidies, different support for clean energy technologies ranging from hydrogen to solar to carbon capture and storage to nuclear, electric cars and others. In Europe we have repower EU again a major package putting on the table accelerating the clean energy transitions. In Japan we have green transformation of Japan, a major, major new plan. China, India, they have increased their renewable and clean energy targets and supported with real money there. So why governments are doing this? There are three reasons. Number one, energy security. Today the biggest driver of renewable energy in many parts of the world is energy security not necessarily climate commitments as it was before. So energy security number one driver. Number two of course climate commitments and number three the many governments want to be a part of the new industrial era based on clean energy manufacturing. So these three drivers energy security, climate commitments and industrial policy when they come together it's a very powerful combination and it is the reason I am optimistic that we are going to see a acceleration of clean energy technologies. And as a result as my colleagues have calculated the clean energy investments today which is about 1.3 trillion USD as of today will reach in 2030 with the current policies with the current policies to about 2 trillion USD. A 50% increase of clean energy investment with the current policies in 2030 something to be happy about or at least optimistic about. Another important finding of our study is that for the first time with the in the current policy settings again without pushing the climate commitments just with the current policy setting we are seeing a peak of fossil fuels a distinct peak of fossil fuels in 2030s. It is the for the first time since industrial revolution we are going to see a peak of fossil fuel around 2030s. Decades and decades the share of in the last three four decades the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix was about 80% more or less constant and now around 2030 we will see this share will fall down below 70%. Again this is in the scenario in the current policy context. Additional policies to push the clean energy technologies may well mean that this 70% will even go further down. Dear colleagues we also look at the impact of that. So this is the there is a peak but this doesn't mean that the world will not use fossil fuel the world will still use fossil fuel oil and gas at a lesser extent coal and as a result in the current policy context with the current policies our numbers show that the global temperature increase would be around 2.5 degrees Celsius and my colleagues also look at the the very important fact that more than 100 countries around the world before and after Glasgow COP26 made pledges. If those pledges of those governments are fulfilled what would be the temperature rise and the temperature rise if those again if and if those pledges are fulfilled it will be temperature rise will be about 1.7 degrees Celsius again an improvement in this area. So in terms of 1.7 degrees is a good news but it is still far from the 1.5 degrees and there is also no certainty that the governments will do what they said they would do in their pledges. So from that point of view if we want to reach our net zero targets on which we last year made a very detailed report we still see there is a significant gap. There are many important achievements but in order to secure a 1.5 degrees result for example the two trillion dollar I mentioned the clean energy investment 2030 needs to double and reach four trillion US dollars. So this is therefore there is still an important gap between the pledges and where we need to come at least where we need to come as the international energy agency. But we still believe that given the all the difficulties we are facing today in the global energy markets to reach 1.5 degrees target is still achievable getting more and more challenging but still achievable from energy sector point of view. Another important point of our report is on Russia. So Russia dear colleagues based on our numbers is of 24th of February this year Russia was the number one fossil fuel exporter of the world oil gas and coal putting all of them together number one fossil fuel exporter of the world but Russia lost it is by far the most important client the market Europe 75 percent of the Russian nature gas exports went to Europe 55 percent of the Russian oil exports went to Europe and it will be very difficult for Russia to compensate to find new clients to substitute Europe it will take time it will not be easy economically technologically and from a political perspective and therefore what we are seeing is the Russia's production and exports for oil and gas will decline in the next years to come as a result Russia's role in the international energy affairs will be diminished much diminished I should say in terms of oil and gas trade Russia's share will increase pardon decrease significantly why Russia's share will decrease because there will be less opportunities to substitute their exports to Europe and elsewhere as a result my colleagues have calculated that the as a result of the decline in the oil and gas sales between now and 2030 Russia will lose about one trillion US dollar of export revenues the last two points I wanted to mention is first on natural gas gas some of the colleagues who follow our work closely would remember 2011 we made a report again in this series of word energy outlook our flagship publication this report was called golden age of gas 2011 when the shale gas revolution has been identified by the IEA we said if the shale gas revolution continues what would be the gas consumption in the world and we came up with a red bullish projection we said in the next 10 years we made this report 2011 global gas consumption could increase by about 700 bcm it was found rather bullish and radical by some but when we look at the numbers in 2021 we were spot on it was a golden age of gas but the this report word energy outlook we have says us that we are approaching to the end of the golden age of gas the demand especially advanced economies are in a decline mainly as a result of the renewables in the electricity generation heat pumps and efficiency in the buildings and the growth in the developing countries there will still grow in developing countries but this will not be as strong as before due to the high prices we are seeing having said that the pipeline a connection between russia and europe will not be on the table anymore and we see that the lng markets will see a very strong push lng will play a more important role but the sustainable growth of lng markets will among other things will hinging on whether or not we can make the lng infrastructure compatible with our climate goals so the last point dear colleagues i wanted to mention to you is how can we reduce the risks of future turmoil like we are seeing today there is a very detailed analysis in our report several hundred pages but if i can try to summarize at the cost of being to simplify it too much i see there are basically two options either clean energy investments today groving i said and they are going to reach with the current policy context two trillion us dollar in 2030 and the energy demand around the world will increase with the economies increasing with the urbanization and others because energy means better lives productivity and the comfortable lives so either we meet this energy demand growth by increasing two trillion dollar clean energy investment to four trillion dollar and the more and more growth in global energy demand will be met by clean and secure energy sources this is the first option which will bring us in line also with the 1.5 degrees target we have this is the first option we have the second option if we fail to increase the clean energy options technologies in order to avoid further volatility and insecurity in the markets we have to further increase fossil fuel investments to have security of energy supply and of course in this case you can address the security in a different way but you are going to jeopardize you are going to jeopardize your our climate course and i believe there is also a business risk here so we have these two options in front of us and from international energy agency point of view we believe and our analysis show that we can at the same time address energy security and climate challenges by increasing the clean energy technologies which will provide a secure future so to finish dear colleagues i believe when we look at this year 10 years from now i believe we will see that 2022 was a year where the clean energy technologies see a major turbocharging and this word energy outlook is a testimony for that and i would like to thank my colleagues laura cozy and a team good and they're wonderful top notch team for bringing this work together thank you very much that is introduction now team gold and i will take you through the main findings of the word energy outlook so let me start you start with the with the giving you a something that i would call the heartbeat of the global energy economy what you're seeing here is an historic perspective of how good or are not good the global energy economy has been going over the past 50 years and the more you go up like really when you measure your heartbeat the more countries you see hitting high level of inflation the reason for being worried and flashing red lights is what this graphs tells you today we are approaching 100 percent of countries hitting very high inflation levels we need to go back to the 70s to the previous oil crisis to see incredibly high level of inflation now governments around the world in our assessment have already spent enough spending over half a trillion dollars to shield consumers from these increasingly high prices to shield companies and should to shield families to try to avoid this increasing risk of a global recession a major and important difference from the period of the 70s is that today governments around the world have many more tools to address this crisis in particular clean energy technologies so if i go back to the very first questions that dr. Birola asked at the beginning of this presentation is this crisis a setback or a boost this answer for what you'll find in this outlook is very clear let's have a look at clean energy investments clean energy investments since the paris agreement was signed in 2015 they've been growing but at a rather modest pace we have seen a first jump in 2021 why because countries out of the covid crisis started putting in place sustainable recoveries they started putting money against ambition and now what's happening over the past several months and over the past year we are seeing an increasing amount of policies being put in place not only the policies the money back in those policies and our expectation is that all those new policies put in place will give a very big push to hit a two trillion mark for clean energy investment by 2030 this is for us a lift up an increase in expectation already compared to last year and a 50 boost compared to today dr. Birola mentioned what are the key policies that are helping countries to go in this direction the us inflation reduction act the european union increasing discussion of meeting and ratcheting up ambition in the fifth of 55 towards repower you japan but also increasing ambition in emerging economies on solar on evise is pushing this clean energy transformation and accelerating it would this be enough to be on track with a 1.5 degree trajectory not yet we would need to double that number to hit four trillion and where we see most of the job to be done is in advance in emerging economies and team will come back to this in a moment for us a critical aspect to be addressed at the coming cop in particular when we see that those countries are the ones suffering the most today from this energy crisis we estimate 75 million people that had access to electricity will be losing it this year because they are simply not able to pay their energy bills there is one sector in particular that for us is moving ahead and really turning the corner this is electricity we have heard certainly and we have heard and read a lot of news of countries turning back to call turning back to call for energy security reasons to make sure that the lights alone for the population this is happening in europe they're also hearing of an increasing amount of countries in asia wanting to build new coal fire power plants for us what's happening is the following in 2022 as you can see here it's true coal had a muted growth in terms of producing electricity but already solar and wind were larger than the increase in coal and once you actually put in place the policies and measures that are already approved so this is the steps world we are in we will see that this is just temporary by 2025 coal is going to be on a downward trajectory and by 2030 we will see even a steeper steeper decline what's happening is very clear clean energy technologies solar in particular are becoming very cheap supporting policies like ira are really even helping to make solar even cheaper and the expectation is that in the next five years solar installed capacity will surpass that of coal to become the number one capacity installed for electricity generation one of the several historic turning points that we will be witnessing in this coming decade by the end of this decade this means that clean energy not only solar we see wind there but also nuclear nuclear that is for reactors that are already present existing that will see a ramp up in in production this is the case for japan some european countries but also new nuclear so when you put all the clean energy technologies together by the end of this decade we will be producing more electricity from clean energy than from fossil fuel this is another turning point what does it mean clearly for emissions this is a good news we will be seeing a peak in electricity sector emissions very soon and emissions we start to decline this is exactly what we need to keep the temperature stop from rising who is leading this change is clearly advanced economy you see really a nosedive in in emissions is it fast enough not yet but it's another acceleration and another very clear sign of acceleration could we move faster and for us the answer is even a clear yes we have been tracking over a range of different clean energy technologies how are manufacturers behaving and reacting to the current new policy setting and what you see here is that in many cases for many critical clean energy technologies solar pv batteries for electric vehicles electrolyzers we are seeing a incredible lineup of new announcements of new plans in all cases those will be above what would it mean that in steps in the current policy setting by 2030 in some cases we are even meeting what would be needed in a net zero by 2050 trajectory of course not all of this project will see the light of the day not all of that will get financing in some cases there will be difficulties aligning supply chains and team will come back to this in a second on the other hand we know that a lot of the recent announcements in policies will actually create a very conducive environment for technologies beyond those ones heat pumps ira in europe really booming we are seeing an app of new projects and beyond that cc us duck so for us what we're seeing on the ground is the reinforcement that policies are credible and there is a triple alignment as dr bilal mentioned earlier those are technologies that help facing the energy security crisis the affordability crisis and the industrial policies of countries now if we turn to fossil fuels we had dr bilal mentioned in this just a minute ago 10 years ago we did a special focus that was called are we entering a golden age of gas and what you see plotted here was our demand projections back then and if you see how the action numbers realized we're actually very very close to what we have seen in markets in reality so 10 years 10 years later we can actually drop the question mark and say yes it was a decade of golden age of gas now going forward the outlook is very different this decade we'll see a very modest growth and then a very long plateau why is this happening is happening for a variety of reasons policies first and foremost first and foremost especially in advanced economies the ones that we have heard earlier especially in the power sector what's happening we have many more technologies that can produce electricity in a much cheaper way than gas so the key driver of gas demand growth that we have seen over the past decade is drying up and in fact for advanced economies we're going to see even a decline in gas use in the electricity sector other key driver that is drying up is the one for heating in buildings as efficiency measures electrification and beyond are really putting an end to this growth as you can see here however we are going to see two diverging trends in advanced economies a peak and a decline in emerging economies a continued growth continued growth that is going to be pushed mostly by industrialization this mismatch has implications also for trade and Tip Gold will take you through those thank you very much indeed Laura and when it comes to gas trade of course we're all aware that in recent months Russia has cut gas deliveries to the European Union by around 80 percent and we assume that there's no way back for the EU-Russia gas relationship and that relationship was built up over 50 years on the basis of trust and that trust has disappeared as you can see on the screen and Russia's trade with China does pick up but it replaces only a fraction of the volumes lost in Europe we'll come back to that in a second but what I wanted to focus on here is really the story around LNG and the spotlight is very much on LNG as a key supply and balancing force in global markets especially in Europe and in developing countries in Asia gas demand in the steps as you can see on the left hand side of the screen a 5 percent increase but there's a 25 percent increase in LNG trade and the big question that we have is will today's tight markets produce an uptick on the investment side and there's a dilemma there because gas business is a long-term business and but the uptick in LNG demand today might not last particularly in Europe so we need to look carefully at business models for any new long-term gas investments and ways to make them compatible with energy transitions for example by integrating CCUS or building in the use of low emissions gases and there can be no clearer sign of the changes underway in the energy system than the picture that you're looking at now for the first time as Dr. Birol mentioned today's policy settings are strong enough to generate an overall peak in fossil fuel demand before the end of this decade and alongside that plateau in gas demand that we just heard about coal demand peaks within the next few years oil demand reaches a high point in the mid 2030s before falling back and that has a lot to do with the expansion of electric vehicles fossil fuels and the emissions from their combustion have risen every decade since the start of the industrial revolution more than two centuries ago and now all of our scenarios have a growing global economy growing demand for energy services alongside a reduced role for fossil fuels in meeting those needs and that's why we're calling this a pivotal moment in energy history and within that broader context the challenges facing Russia are particularly sharp and as was mentioned prior to the invasion of Ukraine Russia was the world's largest fossil fuel exporter so if you put oil and gas together Russia was exporting about 50 percent more oil and gas than the next largest exporter which was Saudi Arabia and if we look back to our projections from the world energy outlook 2021 which is what you're seeing on the screen our expectation was that Russia would easily maintain that position but this has all changed Russia's share of global oil exports drops once the new EU ban on imports kicks in and gas scenes an even steeper drop so gas exports are set to have from today's level by 2030 and those declines highlight the difficulties that Russia faces to find alternative markets for all the resources that used to go to Europe and also our judgment that the sanctions on Russia's access to capital and access to technologies will affect its ability to develop new more challenging resources for instance in eastern Siberia or the Arctic or indeed to build new lng projects and as a result Russia does face a much diminished role in global energy and I'd just like to pick up one point here on gas exports because some people assume that Europe's loss is China's gain and that Russia will simply ramp up gas exports to the east as exports to Europe fall but things are really not that simple aside from all the infrastructure issues our projections underline that China is changing too and that gas demand growth in China's future is nowhere near as strong as it has been in recent years so in our view there's no obvious room in the Chinese mix for another large capacity gas pipeline from Russia beyond the existing parasyberia pipeline as the executive director mentioned energy security is a really key theme in this year's wheel and in particular this issue of maintaining affordable and reliable supply through transitions and I wanted to illustrate a few of our points from the outlook here so for the next few decades at least we will be drawing down a system based on fossil fuels and building one up based on clean energy but the key point I have in mind is that we need both parts to function well for the duration of that transformation you can't just let the fossil fuel system freewheel downhill and the speed and security of the transition depends on synchronizing changes across different parts of the energy system and indeed some parts of the old infrastructure can also be reused or repurposed to find a place in the new one and that brings us to this crucial issue of investment which Dr Barrow already mentioned so this is where we are today for every dollar spent on fossil fuels around one dollar fifty is spent on clean energy transitions and you may recall that we get to two trillion by 2030 in the stated policies but we need to come to that four trillion number by 2030 to get on track for a 1.5 degree scenario note that even in such a dramatic scenario the amount spent on fossil fuels is not zero but that ratio has changed it's not one to 1.5 anymore it's one to nine and as Dr Barrow mentioned under those circumstances you know we have choices about how we choose to guard against the possibility of future volatility the preferable way is to follow what's on the screen right now a massive scale up in clean energy investment but if we fall short of that then avoiding volatile markets will require then higher oil and gas investment than what you're looking at on the screen but that's then comes with a very substantial risk it puts our climate goals in jeopardy as well and as we scale up investment the fastest growth comes uh needs to come in emerging and developing economies and that's as as as Laura mentioned that's where energy demand is also growing most rapidly but clean energy projects face an additional hurdle in those markets and that's the high cost of capital uh cost of capital for a solar plant in key emerging economies it's between two and three times higher than in advanced economies and china and if we want to get secure transitions all across the world and then we need to tackle the risks that deter investors and financial flows from these kinds of projects I think COP 27 is a key opportunity for advanced economies to show the priority that they also attach to this issue and in particular on the discussions on climate finance and finally the world needs to be very attentive to new vulnerabilities affecting energy security we highlight a few issues in the book um but the one I wanted to focus on here is about the security of clean energy supply chains so we have to be very wary of swapping one energy security vulnerability for another today it's gas tomorrow it could be cobalt it could be rare earths um and production of many of these minerals is very concentrated much more so than um the existing supply of oil and gas or coal and our demand for those minerals is really going to increase substantially as we move through transitions for clean energy technologies that are reliant on those uh mineral supplies so in that net zero by missions by 2050 scenario demand for critical minerals increases by a factor of four already by the end of this decade so there's a lot of work to be done to scale up these supply chains and make them more diverse finally a word on what all of this means for emissions um as you can see emissions have risen steadily over recent decades and prior to the signature of the Paris Agreement our baseline expectation was that they would continue to rise putting us on track for a really catastrophic 3.5 degree rise in long-term average temperatures um but as we saw earlier we're now approaching a peak in fossil fuel demand even under today's policies and that's naturally associated also with a peak in emissions as well and that improvement with key technologies and key policies has already shaved around uh one degree uh Celsius of projected long-term warming and compared to our pre-Paris baseline so that brings it down from 3.5 to 2.5 obviously a better outcome before than before uh but still not enough to avoid severe effects from climate change can we reduce it further can we shave another one uh degree of that long-term outcome and as the executive director mentioned if countries follow through in full and on time with all of their pledges then and and companies also do what they have promised for instance in aviation or shipping and we can limit that long-term rise to 1.7 degrees um but there's still an awful lot more to do beyond that uh to reach that net zero emissions by 2050 outcome to round up um a couple of brief conclusions so we've seen the damage done by russia's invasion of ukraine to people to industries to energy markets but the government responses to today's crisis open up a more hopeful perspective as a turning point towards a cleaner and more secure energy sector russia started this crisis as the world's largest fossil fuel exporter but we are really witnessing a profound reshuffling of energy trade that is leaving russia in a much diminished position and we're also approaching that landmark moment in energy history global economy global fossil fuel use um they've been marching upwards shoulder to shoulder for more than two centuries um but they are about to part company and clean energy sources will need to step in and step up to accompany the global economy further but we really need that massive surge in clean energy investment um to keep the door to a 1.5 degree outcome open and without that we would need higher oil and gas investment to avoid a renewed bout of fuel price volatility but that would also put our climate goals at risk and finally today's energy crisis reminds us that the the journey to a more secure inclusive affordable and sustainable energy system may not be a smooth one but it also makes it crystal clear why we need to press ahead thank you very much thank you very much for the presentation um we now have some time to take questions from journalists we invite the journalists in attendance to please send your questions through the q and a function of the zoom if you haven't done so already and please mention your media outlet along with your question um we'll now take a two-minute break to give you a chance to submit your questions we'll be right back thank you very much uh for all the great questions um we're going to get to as many of them uh as we can um starting uh with this one um from ronald kim uh from argus media uh who asks it seems coal fire generation output in 2030 uh will be higher than what was projected under last year's world energy outlook 2021 in both the steps and the aps is this revision because of the recent surge in coal fired output uh and i think uh laura codsey is going to take this question thank you jeteran thanks for for the question uh in fact we are seeing a slightly higher coal fire generation output compared to last year's steps and the reason is indeed that some countries are going to use the existing coal fire power a bit longer as gas prices are high and to maintain energy security however i think it's important to stress that why electricity from coal power is slightly higher than last year's steps emissions are actually lower and the reason is that uh we are pushing on renewables on a stronger on a stronger way and the overall balance is actually bringing to a power sector emission peak earlier as far as aps is concerned uh we are actually uh more we are seeing a faster transition away from coal so the coal generation is lower than last year thank you laura um the next question uh is about gas demand obviously um this was something that was covered in the presentation to some extent you say that gas demand is set to remain flat going forward um does this mean that the role of lng is diminishing um and i think that one is going to go to uh tim gould yeah thanks very much uh for the question um we have this projection that um that laura mentioned earlier five percent increase in global gas demand to 2030 um but there's a lot happening beneath the surface there and one of the things that is happening beneath the surface is that a greater share of that is being met by lng in fact if you look at all the growth to 2030 about 70 of that growth is met by um by lng so tight markets at the moment and we expect those to be maintained at least through the middle of this decade until we get big new increments in liquefaction capacity coming through uh from the middle east uh from north america potentially also from um east africa um but there is that focus on lng now europe is going to take probably an extra 50 billion cubic meters of lng imports this year um that's been eased to some degree by the fact that china has taken less um china's import demand has been affected by lower economic growth um by lockdowns and but we think that once china is back and and that could happen as early as next year then there will be quite intense competition for available lng uh cargos for a while thank you very much tim uh so just scrolling through all of these questions the next one uh is regarding um russia's uh energy exports um this one's from uh anhil calavo from spain's f a news agency uh can you um um be more precise and explain the reduction of russia uh the reduction for russia of the energy exportations of one trillion dollars by 2030 um given that russia has increased the value of uh the export of its fossil fuels recently um so i think uh dr birrell is going to take this question uh many thanks it's a critical issue of course uh just uh before the invasion russia was exporting more than 2.5 million bears per day of oil to europe and about 150 bcm of uh natural gas and as i said russia and for russia europe was the single most important market and russia is losing that market and because of this we expect that the production of oil and gas in russia will decline because it will be very difficult to find home for this natural gas and oil to go to europe for logistical reasons for the sanctions imposed and also for economic reasons so declining uh production and decline of exports mean the oil and gas sales of russia will go down and when we look at this in the next years until between now and 2030 this will cost one trillion us dollar for russia of revenue loss from hydrocarbon exports thank you dr birrell and the next question comes from uh and i apologize here for uh my pronunciation um terre erik stad from the norwegian business daily um who asks um also about russia when will russia have to close down gas and oil fields given your projections um i think uh tim gould is going to take this question so it's very clear that the um the loss of russia's large export markets is having knock on effects upstream you can see that already in gas and in our view you're going to see some of those impacts um in the oil sector as well particularly into the new year once the eu import back kicks in so there are some things that you can do in order to mitigate the impacts on the upstream so in the oil sector you might try and push more uh through refining in gas you can try and put more into gas storage you can try and find uh alternative markets um but all of those options in the end are limited and so particularly for some of the west Siberian fields and fields perhaps in the in the yamal peninsula that are really dedicated towards westward flows um there is the prospect of some fields being shut in and particularly for the older fields um it's not clear once those fields are once you dial back production from those fields if it's going to be particularly easy um to start them up again so there is flexibility in the system um if you look at the seasonal profile of russia's gas production it does vary quite a lot across the year um so there are some options in there but i think the the sorts of shocks that we're talking about in our uh in our projections would involve some shut-ins thank you very much tim um the next question comes uh from junior aisles from mi b media um about co2 emissions um we actually have a couple of um co2 emission questions so when do you see co2 emissions peaking in the power sector and then um in terms of the implications for um emissions for the rise in temperatures um last year cop 26 the ia um said that that all the pledges if implemented would lead to a rise in temperatures of uh 1.8 degrees celsius um have you updated this analysis where where do things stand now um so uh laura is going to take this question thank you jeatro so on the first question is about the power sector emissions in in the current policy settings our expectation is actually that we are living through uh through the peak so emissions are starting to decline uh in the next few years it may be that for reasons related to weather we may be seeing some blips uh but uh in our latest analysis shows that basically this year may be the next this is the uh this is the peak in in in power sector emissions and then starting a much needed decline for our climate so in addition to our step scenarios we also updated um what countries have actually pledged in terms of ndc's and net zero pledges compared to last year and maybe a couple of significant examples of countries that came in with new pledges certainly indonesia uh major coal coal users and also sectoral initiatives that are uh taking up on shipping on aviation and those together have actually uh put a better outcome in in our view last year we were expecting and 1.8 degrees uh in uh long term temperature rises of all those pledges are are met and this year we are at 1.7 so getting slowly towards the 1.5 mark thank you laura um we're getting really quite a lot of um very good questions um unfortunately running out of time i think we have time for one more um uh an important question here um from alex forbes of uh gas matters um what is the single most important outcome you would like to see from the cop 27 climate talks these obviously being cop 27 which is taking place uh next month in shamel shake in egypt and i think uh dr burrell is gonna uh take this last question so uh many things so cop 27 is very important for many reasons and there are many outcomes that we would like to see but if i have to pick up one i would say uh it is time uh for advanced economies so-called uh rich countries to show that they are serious about climate change by providing support for the clean energy investment in developing countries especially in africa i think it would be very wrong if the uh countries advanced economies go there just coming with some prescriptive suggestions perspectives to that meeting for the emerging countries and not providing enough financial support uh for the clean energy transition so if i have to pick up one outcome that i would like to see strong support of advanced economies for african or in general developing countries energy transition and having an empathy for the political economic and social priorities of the countries in africa and beyond this would be uh my favorite hope among others from cop 27 thank you dr burrell and that's all we have time for i'm afraid we've received lots of great questions um more than we can actually squeeze in uh if any journalists have questions that didn't get answered during the q and a that you'd like to follow up on uh we invite you of course to reach out to our press office and we'll get back to you as soon as we can um so thank you very much to dr burrell to miss codsey to mr gould thank you to the journalists for your questions um and thank you to everyone following this event on uh this event online for your interest in our work um as mentioned before the full world energy outlook 2022 report is available for free on our website and there's a ton of great content uh to explore so please do go take a look um and thank you and goodbye